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Effect Studies Offshore Wind Egmond Aan Zee: Cumulative Effects on Seabirds

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Effect Studies Offshore Wind Egmond Aan Zee: Cumulative Effects on Seabirds Effect studies Offshore Wind Egmond aan Zee: cumulative effects on seabirds A modelling approach to estimate effects on population levels in seabirds M.J.M. Poot P.W. van Horssen M.P. Collier R. Lensink S. Dirksen Consultants for environment & ecology Effect studies Offshore Wind Egmond aan Zee: cumulative effects on seabirds A modelling approach to estimate effects on population levels in seabirds M.J.M. Poot P.W. van Horssen M.P. Collier R. Lensink S. Dirksen commissioned by: Noordzeewind date: 18 November 2011 report nr: 11-026 OWEZ_R_212_T1_20111118_Cumulative effects Status: Final report Report nr.: 11-026 OWEZ_R_212_T1_20111118_Cumulative effects Date of publication: 18 November 2011 Title: Effect studies Offshore Wind Egmond aan Zee: cumulative effects on seabirds Subtitle: A modelling approach to estimate effects on population levels in seabirds Authors: drs. M.J.M. Poot drs. P.W. van Horssen msc. M.P. Collier drs. ing. R. Lensink drs. S. Dirksen Number of pages incl. appendices: 247 Project nr: 06-466 Project manager: drs. M.J.M. Poot Name & address client: Noordzeewind, ing. H.J. Kouwenhoven 2e Havenstraat 5B 1976 CE IJmuiden Reference client: Framework agreement for the provision of “MEP services” 30 May 2005 Signed for publication: Team manager bird ecology department Bureau Waardenburg bv drs. T.J. Boudewijn Initials: Bureau Waardenburg bv is not liable for any resulting damage, nor for damage which results from applying results of work or other data obtained from Bureau Waardenburg bv; client indemnifies Bureau Waardenburg bv against third-party liability in relation to these applications. © Bureau Waardenburg bv / Noordzeewind This report is produced at the request of the client mentioned above and is his property. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted and/or publicized in any form or by any means, electronic, electrical, chemical, mechanical, optical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the client mentioned above and Bureau Waardenburg bv, nor may it without such a permission be used for any other purpose than for which it has been produced. The Quality Management System of Bureau Waardenburg bv has been certified by CERTIKED according to ISO 9001:2000. Photos frontcover; M. Poot,Bureau Waardenburg 4 Preface The Dutch government has granted ‘Noordzeewind’ (Nuon and Shell Wind Energy) the possibility to build a wind farm consisting of 36 wind turbines off the coast of the Netherlands, near Egmond. This project serves to evaluate the economical, technical, ecological and social effects of offshore wind farms in general. To gather knowledge in these areas, a Monitoring and Evaluation Program (NSW-MEP) has been developed. The knowledge gained by this project will be made available to all parties involved in the realisation of large-scale offshore wind farms. Bureau Waardenburg and IMARES Wageningen UR, in cooperation, have been commissioned to execute the study of the effects on flight paths, flight altitudes and flux of migratory and non-migratory birds. Here we present results in which the cumulative effects of several wind farms on the Dutch continental shelf on birds are modelled. This study has been carried out by means of creating population models for different bird species. The effects of wind farms on these species, as the (estimated) number of victims, was fed into the population models. Most of these estimates were based on the radar measurements and field observations gathered from OWEZ, the operational offshore wind farm Egmond aan Zee (Krijgsveld et al. 2011, and Leopold et al. 2010) and less from the baselline study near Meetpost Noordwijk (Krijgsveld et al. 2005). Many national and international colleagues have made contributions to this report and are thanked in the acknowledgements. Most of them were met at a workshop on cumulative effects in May 2007 in Peterborough, which was organised by COWRIE around the time that the present study was started. Since that time information on developments and techiques for assessing cumulative effects have been shared, however, it is strongly recommended that in a wider international context further investigations on the cumulative effects of multiple wind farms are initiated. The urgency for such collaborative studies became clear at the Conference for Wind energy and Wildlife impacts, organised by NINA, in Norway in May 2011. The preliminary results of the present study represented one of the few studies addressing the issue of cumulative effects that were presented. Furthermore, in many countries around the North Sea, plans and developments in offshore wind energy are at a much higher level than in 2007. The Offshore Wind Farm Egmond aan Zee has a subsidy of the Ministry of Economic Affairs under the CO2 Reduction Scheme of the Netherlands. 5 6 Table of contents Preface................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Table of contents................................................................................................................................................ 7 Summary............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Nederlandse samenvatting ............................................................................................................................. 19 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ 27 1.1 Background.................................................................................................................................. 27 1.2 Cumulative effects of wind farms on birds ................................................................................ 29 1.3 General approach........................................................................................................................ 31 1.4 Scenarios multiple new offshore wind farms in Dutch waters................................................. 35 2 Materials and methods ............................................................................................................................ 37 2.1 Species of interest....................................................................................................................... 37 2.2 Data for parameterization of population models ...................................................................... 37 2.3 Estimating the effect of wind turbines on birds......................................................................... 41 2.3.1 Estimating collision-related mortality ......................................................................... 41 2.3.2 Disturbance effects ..................................................................................................... 44 2.3.3 Barrier effects; disturbance of flight paths................................................................. 46 2.4 Assessing the cumulative effects at the population level ........................................................ 47 2.4.1 Estimating effects by means of population models ................................................. 48 2.4.2 The Potential Biological Removal approach ............................................................ 48 2.5 Limitations and problems of extrapolating findings of OWEZ................................................. 49 3 Population models.................................................................................................................................... 53 3.1 General approach........................................................................................................................ 53 3.2 Non-breeding adults or ‘floaters’ in bird populations................................................................ 63 4 Effects of multiple offshore wind farms................................................................................................... 73 4.1 Occurrence and effects on birds in and around OWEZ .......................................................... 73 4.2 Assessing the effects based on multiple wind farm scenarios ............................................... 77 5 Effects on bird populations ...................................................................................................................... 83 5.1 Species specific population information and effects ................................................................ 83 5.1.1 Seabird species (mainly) breeding in the Netherlands............................................ 86 5.1.2 Seabird species (mainly) breeding outside The Netherlands............................... 102 5.1.3 Migrant species (mainly) breeding outside The Netherlands ............................... 118 5.2 Results from the Potential Biological Removal approach .....................................................126 6 Discussion...............................................................................................................................................131 6.1 Limitations of models used and the precautionary approach ...............................................131 6.2 Uncertainty about disturbance and barrier effects .................................................................132 7 6.3 Application of findings in relation to
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