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Scarborough Profile SCARBOROUGH PROFILE Understanding and explaining poverty in Scarborough & Northern Scarborough (East Steeles Nexus) John Stapleton Open Policy Updated January 2019 The East Steeles Nexus 2 Acknowledgements • This slide show would not be possible without the strong assistance of: • J. David Hulchanski and Richard Maaranen Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto) • Harvey Low: City of Toronto • Jordan Raghunandan: USTC student • Mimi Lau: Scarborough Community Renewal Organization • Yvonne Yuan (Open Policy) ESN and NIA 3 Scarborough 23 % of City Population The East Steeles Nexus 4 1970-2015: CHANGE OVER TIME From Neighbourhood Change CURA The East Steeles Nexus 5 The East Steeles Nexus 6 1980: 3 poverty pockets The East Steeles Nexus 7 1990: Kingston road & Housing The East Steeles Nexus 8 1995: central & north Scarborough The East Steeles Nexus 9 2000: Scarborough part of City 3 The East Steeles Nexus 10 2005: Very low poverty for 1st time The East Steeles Nexus 11 2007most tracts in poverty The East Steeles Nexus 12 2010: Only near the lake not in poverty The East Steeles Nexus 13 2012: Unbroken line of poverty away from the lake The East Steeles Nexus 14 2015: Deep Poverty in Scarborough north emerges The East Steeles Nexus 15 The East Steeles Nexus 16 JOBS 2006-2016 The East Steeles Nexus 17 The East Steeles Nexus 18 The East Steeles Nexus 19 A CLOSER LOOK Scarborough November 1, 2017 20 The East Steeles Nexus 21 Working Poverty in Scarborough is concentrated in Northern Scarborough • Working poverty in the East Steeles Nexus is unbroken from the 404 to Scarborough Pickering Town Line The East Steeles Nexus 22 Working Poverty in Markham is in south perched on Steeles Highest concentration of working poor in York Region is in the East Steeles Nexus The East Steeles Nexus 23 SUBSIDIZED HOUSING IN SCARBOROUGH ESN and NIA 24 ESN and NIA 25 ESN and NIA 26 The East Steeles Nexus 27 DOUBLE OR NOTHING! NO NIA’S IN NORTH SCARBOROUGH Poverty and Neighbourhood Improvement Areas in Toronto The East Steeles Nexus 28 Neighbourhood improvement areas noted in light blue –Toronto only East Steeles Nexus Toronto (None) ESN and NIA’s ESN and NIA 29 City of Toronto: Low after tax and shelter cost income in poorest 48 neighbourhoods (All NIA’s are in poorest 48) ESN and NIA 30 The East Steeles Nexus 31 Blue: NIA’s. Yellow: Non NIA low income The East Steeles Nexus 32 Double or nothing? • Double or nothing refers to the evidence that most NIA’s are concentrated in neighbourhoods with much more subsidized housing units • Areas with subsidized housing have higher after shelter income . • The poor who live in unsubsidized housing have less after shelter income than the poor who live in subsidized housing • But almost all the NIA funds go to neighbourhoods with subsidized housing because they are poorer. The East Steeles Nexus 33 Why no NIAs in North Scarborough? • ESN is slightly richer than the NIA’s but poorer than the rest of Toronto Double or Nothing: East Steeles Nexus subsidized housing 1/3 or less than NIA’s – lowest in City ESN and NIA 34 The East Steeles Nexus 35 Total yearly income and yearly after rent incomes of Ontario Works, ODSP recipients and seniors living in subsidized (RGI) apartments in Ontario. All tenants assumed to have no outside or work income Family configuration Basic needs or Social assistance Total yearly Percentage of and Program seniors benefits or seniors’ RGI rent Income income spent on + Tax Credits Rent OW single $5,131 $1,020 $6,151 16.6% 1+1 $12,859 $2,232 $15,091 14.8% 1+2 $20,129 $2,712 $22,841 11.9% 1+3 $27,473 $3,228 $30,701 10.5% OW and ODSP rates differ along with their designated RGI rents. ODSP single $8,979 $1,308 $10,287 12.7% ODSP couple $12,543 $2,388 $14,931 16.0% In seniors’ calculation below: seniors’ income does not add to rent Senior Single $21,146 $6,344 $21,146 30.0% Senior Couple $32,687 $9,806 $32,687 30.0% NIA, Housing and the ESN District Total Low Income Social Housing SHU per Total SHU per Low-income Population Population Units Population Population ESN (8) 265,794 68,830 4,382 1.65% 6.37% Data Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2016; Low-Income Measure After Tax (LIM-AT), Taxfiler data (T1FF), 2012 from Statistics Canada; Soc All NIA (31) 615,133 176,510 30,170 4.90% 17.09% Scarborough NIA (8) 182,441 53,490 10,036 5.50% 18.76% Non Scarborough NIA (23) 418,995 124,520 19,896 4.75% 15.98% Toronto (140) 2,731,571 583,070 89,752 3.29% 15.39% ESN and NIA 36 ESN and NIA 37 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Scarborough The East Steeles Nexus 38 Total yearly income and yearly after rent incomes of Ontario Works & ODSP recipients and seniors living in subsidized (RGI) apartments vs. tenants in the private market. Compares rents at SA maximums and at 50% of total income Family Total Basic After After rent Difference After Difference Monthly configuration yearly needs or rent income in in after rent rent in after rent rents at and Program Income seniors income private incomes income incomes 50% of in RGI benefits + in RGI market private vs in private private vs total housing tax rental at SA RGI rental market RGI rental income using credits in maximums At SA rental where (private S.A. private maximums where private rent rental) rental market rent is is 50% of scale 50% of income income OW single $6,151 $9,811 $5,131 $5,229 +$98 $4,906 -$225 $409 1+1 $15,091 $20,503 $12,859 $12,794 -$65 $10,252 -$2,607 $854 1+2 $22,841 $28,493 $20,129 $20,116 -$13 $14,247 -$5,882 $1,187 1+3 $30,701 $36,545 $24,473 $27,482 +$3,009 $18,273 -$6,200 $1,523 ODSP single $10,287 $14,943 $8,979 $8,981 +$2 $7,472 -$1,507 $623 ODSP couple $14,931 $21,915 $12,543 $12,535 -$8 $10,956 -$1,587 $913 Note Below: seniors’ incomes do not relate to social assistance maximums Senior Single $21,146 $21,146 $14,802 n/a n/a $10,573 -$4229 $881 Senior Couple $32,687 $32,687 $22,881 n/a n/a $16,343 -$6,538 $1,362 The East Steeles Nexus 39 Housing Affordability: Paying more than 30% for rent East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough Only) The East Steeles Nexus 40 Higher Household size in East Steeles Nexus East Steeles Nexus Toronto by Household Size (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 41 Housing suitability East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 42 Rooming houses are illegal in Scarborough & Markham Rooming house pilot in East Toronto’s Legal Rooming houses Steeles Nexus (Scarborough only The East Steeles Nexus 43 Rooming Houses illegal in Scarborough and Markham • Rooming house illegality may be contributing to the proliferation of rooming houses • With housing and rental demand at all time highs, illegal rooming houses can act freely as tenants encouraged to stay quiet. • Illegal operators don’t report their rental for taxation periods and have greater control over tenants who face eviction if they raise issues • Many Illegal operators prefer illegal status as they are not required to make needed repairs or report income. • Those found to be illegally operating see it as the price of doing business in a highly lucrative market • 2:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. parking bans have little or no effect in Scarborough and increase poverty by forcing working families out of Scarborough. The East Steeles Nexus 44 DATA APPENDICES The East Steeles Nexus 45 NEW IMMIGRANTS & REFUGEES Appendix 1 The East Steeles Nexus 46 Visible Minorities East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough only) ESN and NIA 47 ESN has highest concentration of visible minorities Immigration Status 90% 83.40% 80% 70% 68.04% 63.75% 63.27% 60% 51.50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10.62% 11.02% 9.03% 10% 7.30% 6.88% 0% ESN (8) All NIA (31) Scarborough NIA (8) Non Scarborough NIA (23) Toronto (140) Visible Minority (%) Recent Immigrants (%) The East Steeles Nexus 48 Refugees since 1980 East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 49 Non –official mother tongue East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 50 No knowledge of French or English East Steeles Nexus Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 51 TRANSPORTATION Appendix 2 The East Steeles Nexus 52 Getting to work takes longer: percentage of commutes taking longer than 45 minutes East Steeles Nexus Mid Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 53 High and Low Percentages of 45 minute commute times East Steeles Nexus Mid Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 54 Leaving earlier… Commute by Departure Time Mid Toronto East Steeles Nexus Leaves later – travels less (Scarborough Only) The East Steeles Nexus 55 Average Travel times in minutes: Public Transit Scarborough Toronto No data for East Steeles Nexus The East Steeles Nexus 56 Map of average travel time in minutes Public transit East Steeles Nexus Mid Toronto (Scarborough only) The East Steeles Nexus 57 Subway Lines (noted in red) East Steeles Nexus (Scarborough map but includes Markham) The East Steeles Nexus area has no subway or Toronto LRT service The Stouffville GO train has three stops in the Nexus: Milliken, Agincourt and Unionville The East Steeles Nexus 58 North-South 400 Series Highways GTA and East Steeles Nexus East Steeles Nexus (0) GTA (6) The East Steeles Nexus 59 VOTING PATTERNS Turnout and comparisons The East Steeles Nexus 60 The East Steeles Nexus 61 The East Steeles Nexus 62 The East Steeles Nexus 63 The East Steeles Nexus 64 INCOMES & RELATED DATA Appendix 3 The East Steeles Nexus 65 Food Bank visits are rising Scarborough Toronto (No data for East Scarborough nexus) The East Steeles Nexus 66 Toronto’s highest growth in Food Bank Visits in 3 East Steeles wards The East Steeles Nexus 67 The surge in Food Bank Visits in Scarborough The East Steeles Nexus 69 The East Steeles Nexus 71 THANK YOU Questions? .
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