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The Central African Republic Crisis

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The Central African Republic crisis March 2016 Nathalia Dukhan About this report This report provides a synthesis of some of the most recent, high-quality literature on the security and political processes in Central African Republic produced up to the end of January 2016. It was prepared for the European Union’s Instrument Contributing to Stability and Peace, © European Union 2016. The views expressed in this report are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of GSDRC, its partner agencies or the European Commission. This is the second review published by GSDRC on the situation in the Central African Republic. The first review of literature was published in June 2013 and provides a country analysis covering the period 2003- 2013. It is available at: http://www.gsdrc.org/docs/open/car_gsdrc2013.pdf. Expert contributors GSDRC would like to thank the following experts who have contributed to the production of this report: Carolina Reyes Aragon, UN Panel of Experts on the CAR Jocelyn Coulon, Réseau de Recherche sur les Opérations de la Paix Manar Idriss, Independent Researcher Thibaud Lesueur, International Crisis Group Thierry Vircoulon, International Crisis Group Ruben de Koning, UN Panel of Experts on the CAR Yannick Weyns, Researcher at IPIS Research Source for map of CAR on following page: International Peace Information Service (PIS) www.ipisresearch.be. Suggested citation Dukhan, N. (2016). The Central African Republic crisis. Birmingham, UK: GSDRC, University of Birmingham. About GSDRC GSDRC is a partnership of research institutes, think-tanks and consultancy organisations with expertise in governance, social development, humanitarian and conflict issues. We provide applied knowledge services on demand and online. Our specialist research team supports a range of international development agencies, synthesising the latest evidence and expert thinking to inform policy and practice. GSDRC, International Development Department, College of Social Sciences University of Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom [email protected] www.gsdrc.org Contents Chronology of events ................................................................................................................... ii 1. Overview ................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Principal internal actors ........................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Rebel movements ........................................................................................................................ 2 2.2 Rebel groups ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3 The transitional authorities ......................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Principal national security forces................................................................................................. 9 2.5 Political parties ............................................................................................................................ 9 2.6 Religious leaders ........................................................................................................................ 10 2.7 The private sector ...................................................................................................................... 10 3. Principal external actors ......................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Regional organisations............................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Main regional actors .................................................................................................................. 12 3.3 International organisations ....................................................................................................... 13 3.4 International actors ................................................................................................................... 15 4. Principal internal dynamics .................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Sectarian violence ...................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 The agro-pastoral conflict .......................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Culture of impunity .................................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Phantom state, economic predation and the natural resource curse ...................................... 22 5. Principal external dynamics .................................................................................................... 24 5.1 The ambiguous role of Chad ...................................................................................................... 24 5.2 Regional armed combatants ...................................................................................................... 25 6. National dialogues and peace agreements (2014-2015) ........................................................... 26 6.1 The Brazzaville Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities, July 2014 ............................................. 26 6.2 The Nairobi deal, January 2015 ................................................................................................. 26 6.3 The Bangui Forum on National Reconciliation, May 2015 ........................................................ 27 6.4 The electoral process ................................................................................................................. 27 6.5 DDR and security sector reform ................................................................................................ 28 7. Capacities for peace ............................................................................................................... 30 7.1 Former conflict resolution mechanisms: the case of agro-pastoralism .................................... 30 7.2 Religious leaders in the reconciliation process.......................................................................... 30 7.3 Decentralised governance ......................................................................................................... 31 7.4 Economic opportunities............................................................................................................. 31 7.5 Strengthening the judiciary and support transitional justice .................................................... 31 7.6 Disarmament and demobilisation ............................................................................................. 32 8. Synthesis of recommendations (2014-2015)............................................................................ 33 Appendix 1: CAR armed groups – situation as of January 2016 .................................................... 37 Appendix 2: Deployment of armed groups within CAR and their main sources of revenue ........... 38 Appendix 3: Historical origins of the sectarian violence ............................................................... 41 Appendix 4: Impact of the CAR crisis on pastoralists in the region ............................................... 42 References ................................................................................................................................. 43 i Chronology of events 2012 10 December 2012: The Seleka, a coalition of rebel groups from the north of the Central African Republic (CAR), launched a major armed offensive from the north-east of the country against the Bozizé regime. Heavily armed mercenaries from Chad and Sudan supported the attack. They took control of several towns and villages in the east and advanced up to Sibut (180 km from the capital, Bangui). 2013 11 January 2013: Following the Seleka offensive, President Bozizé and the Seleka coalition signed the Libreville Agreement to establish a Government of National Unity. 24 March 2013: The Seleka rebels carried out a coup, took over the capital, and moved into the western part of the country. Bozizé fled to Cameroon. Michel Djotodia, leader of the Seleka coalition, proclaimed himself president, dissolved the Government of National Unity and the National Assembly, suspended the constitution and announced that he would rule by decree for at least three years. During this period, Seleka fighters committed widespread abuses against the civilian population, including killings, pillage, rape and forced displacement. 13 April 2013: Following pressure from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the National Transitional Council was established and elected Michel Djotodia, the sole candidate, as Head of the Transition. 13 June 2013: A new Government of National Unity was formed. Michel Djotodia remained Minister of Defence and President of the Transition. 18 August 2013: Michel Djotodia was officially sworn in as Head of State of the Transition and committed to holding national elections within 18 months. 13 September 2013: President Djotodia formally dissolved the Seleka coalition, but this political announcement had no real effect in terms of ending the widespread abuses committed by the Seleka rebels and supporters
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