Transboundary River Floods: Vulnerability of Continents, International River Basins and Countries
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since the answer greatly depends upon the specific definition of vulnerability. This indicates that vulnerability to floods is a complex phenomenon that cannot be explained by using the results of only this study. ©Copyright by Marloes H. N. Bakker December 06, 2006 All Rights Reserved Transboundary River Floods: Vulnerability of Continents, International River Basins and Countries by Marloes H. N. Bakker A DISSERTATION submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Presented December 06, 2006 Commencement June 2007 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS For their generosity of time, guidance and spirit, I would like to genuinely thank my dissertation committee members: Drs. Aaron Wolf, Brent Steel, Gregg Walker, Ron Doel, Steve Hostetler, and graduate representative Kevin Boston. For much needed and appreciated grants awarded, I thank the Ryoichi Sasakawa Young Leaders Fellowship Fund and the supporters of the K. Muckleston Scholarship Fund. In addition, I would like to thank the Department of Geosciences at Oregon State University for the funding that supported this research. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter One: Introduction………………………………………………………………… 1 Chapter Two: Vulnerability to (Transboundary) River Floods of Continents, International River Basins and Countries…..……………………………………………… 3 Abstract……………………………………………………………………………. 3 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………..5 The Science behind Floods ……………………………………………………….. 8 Vulnerability, Risk, Adaptability and Resilience to Floods………………………. 10 Methodology: Databases …………………………………………………………..13 The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database ……………………... 13 Dartmouth Flood Observatory Database.………………………………... 14 Selection of Floods……………………………………………………….. 14 Classification of Shared River Floods……………………………………. 15 Global Analysis of Floods and related Socio-Economic Variables..........…………………. 18 Analyzed Flood Data……………………………………………………... 18 Floods, HDI, GNI and Population………………………...……………… 19 Number of Affected Individuals………………………………………….. 23 Financial Damages………………...………………………………………24 Comparison between Transboundary and All River Floods Events……………................ 26 Global Analysis of Transboundary River Floods and related Socio-Economic Variables…31 Analysis by Continent……………………………………………………. 34 Analysis by International River Basin……………………………………. 38 Discussion and Conclusions………………………………………………………. 43 Chapter Three: Transboundary River Floods, International River Basin Institutions and International Freshwater Treaties…………………………………………………….. 50 Abstract …………………………………………………………………………… 50 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………..52 Humans, Rivers and Floods……………………………………………………….. 54 Floods in Developed and Lesser Developed Countries…………………………… 61 Perceptions of Flood Risks………………………………………………………... 65 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Coping with Floods………………………………………………………………...67 Flood Policy: Institutions, Roles and Responsibilities……………………………. 78 River Basin Organizations ………………………………………………………... 87 River Basin Organizations and River Basin Committees: Global Facts & Figures ………………………………………………….. 88 Results: Global Database……………………………………………….. 89 Summary per Continent…………………………………………………………. 92 Africa …………………………………………………………………….. 92 Asia ………………………………………………………………………. 94 Europe……………………………………………………………………. 96 North America……………………………………………………………. 98 South America……………………………………………………………. 98 Principal Issues Worldwide ……………………………………………… 100 Flood-related Events……………………………………………………... 100 International Freshwater Treaties and Transboundary Floods…………… 105 Discussion…………………………………………………………………………. 110 Chapter Four: Transboundary River Flood Management: A Case Study Comparison between the Netherlands and Mozambique………………………………………………... 115 Abstract……………………………………………………………………………. 115 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….. 117 Floods and Societies………………………………………………………………. 119 Case Study Areas: the Netherlands and Mozambique…………………………….. 123 The Netherlands: General Background Information……………………………… 123 Water Management in the Netherlands through the Ages……………….. 125 Flood Management in the Netherlands through the Ages……………….. 128 Transboundary Floods in the Netherlands……………………………….. 133 International Water Institutions related to Transboundary Floods……….. 134 Mozambique: General Background Information………………………………….. 138 Water Management in Mozambique through the Ages………………….. 141 Flood Management in Mozambique through the Ages………………….. 142 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Transboundary Floods in Mozambique………………………………….. 146 International Water Institutions related to Transboundary Floods……….. 148 Lessons Learned…………………………………………………………………... 151 National Flood Policy…………………………………………………….. 153 International Cooperation………………………………………………. 154 Flood-related Events, Treaties and Institutional Capacity……………….. 154 Discussion and Recommendations ……………………………………………….. 156 General ……………………………………………………………………156 Flood Institutions and Transboundary Water Management……………... 156 The Netherlands…………………………………………………………... 157 Mozambique……………………………………………………………… 158 Lessons Learned………………………………………………………… 161 Chapter Five: Conclusions…………………………………………………………………. 164 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………….. 167 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Distribution of river floods per continent and per year………………………….. 19 2.2 Average number of casualties……………………………………………………... 20 2.3 Financial damages and casualties………………………………………………….25 2.4 Percentages of casualties, affected individuals and financial damages…………… 27 2.5 Annual flood magnitudes………………………………………………………….. 28 2.6 Average affected area per flood type……………………………………………… 29 2.7 Severity per flood type……………………………………………………………..30 2.8 Average number of casualties per flood type…………………………………….. 32 2.9 Financial damages and casualties per flood………………………………………..33 2.10 Shared river floods per year per continent………………………………………… 34 2.11 Medians of types of floods…………………………………………………………35 2.12 Transboundary floods per continent………………………………………………. 36 2.13 Transboundary flood statistics per continent……………………………………… 36 2.14 IRB ranking……………………………………………………………………….. 39 2.15 IRB ranking………………………………………………………………………...39 2.16 The average death toll against the average displacement toll…………………….. 41 3.1 Quantity of flood events globally…………………………………………………. 56 3.2 Average number of casualties per HDI level……………………………………… 62 3.3 Annual economic losses……………………………………………………………63 3.4 International river basin institutions per continent……………………………….. 91 3.5 IRBs and river basins institutions per continent…………………………………... 91 3.6 River basin organizations and commissions in Africa………………………….. 93 3.7 River basin organizations and commissions in Asia …………………………….. 95 3.8 River basin organizations and commissions in Europe………………………….. 97 3.9 River basin organizations and commissions in North America…………………. 99 3.10 River basin organizations and commissions in South America…………………. 101 3.11 Shared river floods per year per continent………………………………………… 102 3.12 Flood related events per continent………………………………………………… 103 3.13 Flood related events categorized per continent and decade………………………. 104 3.14 Flood-related events ranked on BAR scale ……………………………………….. 105 LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) Figure Page 3.15 Institutional capacity Africa………………………………………………………. 107 3.16 Institutional capacity Asia………………………………………………………… 107 3.17 Institutional capacity Europe……………………………………………………… 107 3.18 Institutional capacity South America………………………………………………107 4.1 Average number of casualties per HDI level……………………………………… 120 4.2 Annual economic losses……………………………………………………………121 4.3 The Netherlands and its IRBs……………………………………………………... 124 4.4 Mozambique and its IRBs………………………………………………………… 139 4.5 Cycle of floods and droughts in Mozambique…………………………………….. 143 4.6 Development aid projects in Mozambique………………………………………... 145 4.7 Death and displacement tolls in the Netherlands and Mozambique………………. 151 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3.1 Types of floods and their causes ………………………………………………….. 60 3.2 Four types of measures for coping with floods…………………………………….69 3.3 Five issues that have the potential to constrain flood policy……………………… 80 3.4 Summarizing table for all the IRBs……………………………………………….. 108 4.1 Chronological list of river floods in the Netherlands…………………………….. 130 4.2 Shared floods in the Netherlands………………………………………………….. 133 4.3 Shared floods in Mozambique…………………………………………………….. 147 4.4 Factors that have sha ped flood management practices……………………………. 152 LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Figure Page 2A Average number of flood and casualties…………………………………………. 178 2B Average death toll number of flood-related deaths……………………………….. 179 2C Average death toll and number of floods…………………………………………. 180 2D Average displacement toll and average annual number of displacements………... 181 2E Average displacement toll and the average death toll…………………………….. 182 2F Average amount of financial damage per year……………………………………. 183 2G Financial damage relative to the GNI……………………………………………... 184 2H Death tolls and HDI level…………………………………………………………. 185 2I Displacement tolls all floods and shared flood……………………………………. 186 2J Financial damages all floods and shared floods…………………………………... 187 2K Displacement toll and annual number of displacements………………………….. 188 2L Financial damage per year by HDI level………………………………………….. 189 2M Ranking of IRBs – flood magnitude………………………………………………. 190 2N Average death toll per IRB………………………………………………………... 191 2O Frequency graph of the average death toll for IRB……………………………….