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IMPACT of CLIMATE CHANGE in ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES THAT DEPEND from TROPICAL GLACIERS Prepared By: Adriana Soto Trujillo Review and Complementation

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IMPACT of CLIMATE CHANGE in ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES THAT DEPEND from TROPICAL GLACIERS Prepared By: Adriana Soto Trujillo Review and Complementation IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES THAT DEPEND FROM TROPICAL GLACIERS Prepared by: Adriana Soto Trujillo Review and complementation: Matilde Avejera, Danitza Salazar, Paula Pacheco, Martín Vilela, Edwin Torrez Agua Sustentable La Paz Calle Nataniel Aguirre Nº 82 entre 11 y 12 de Irpavi Telf/Fax: +591 (2) 2151744 [email protected] Cochabamba Calle Irigoyen Nº 150, entre Juan de la Rosa y Yuracaré (zona Sarco) Telf/Fax +591 (4) 4423162 [email protected] Tupiza Av. Tomás Frias Nº 350 (Zona Plaza San Antonio) Telf/Fax +591 (2) 6945338 [email protected] 1 INTRODUCTION In the last years, Bolivia has been affected by the impacts of climate change (increase of heat waves, changes in rainy season, floods, droughts and forest fires.), which mainly affect rural communities, who are the most vulnerable because of their low adaption capacity; probably because their way of living is based on the use of natural resources highly sensitive to the changes of climatic conditions, such as water. Illimani Glacier In this sense, researches were made in basins that depend on Tropical Glaciers in our country to identify the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of communities, establishing adaptation strategies to cope with this situation. This brochure shows the decline in two Bolivian tropical glaciers: The Mururata and Illimani. It also recommends some adaptation strategies for the The impact will be much greater in communities that Sajhuaya River micro-basin, which water source live in the highlands (mountainous area) if projections comes from the Illimani glacier. from the IPCC (2008) are considered, which indicate that water stored in glaciers and in the snow cover will decline this century, reducing water availability in warm and dry seasons in those regions depending on the principal mountain ranges’ snowmelt. 2 IMPACTS: Maximum and minimum temperature increase in the last decades Data recorded for the 1975-2009 periods by El Alto The registered data for the same period in La Paz city city station show that the maximum and minimum show increase of maximum and minimum temperatures have extreme values. temperatures. 1 16.5 21.0 ANUAL Linea de Tendecia Maxima 20.5 16.0 20.0 15.5 19.5 15.0 19.0 y = 0.0709x - 122.53 14.5 18.5 TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc) 18.0 14.0 TEMPERATURA (ºc) 17.5 ANUAL Linea de Tendecia Maxima 13.5 17.0 y = 0.0183x - 22.02 AÑOS AÑOS 13.0 16.5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 1. Maximum temperature in El Alto city Figure 3. Maximum temperature in La Paz city 1.5 7.0 y = -0.0036x + 7.5982 6.5 y = 0.0281x - 50.458 1.0 6.0 0.5 5.5 TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc) TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc) 0.0 ANUAL Linea de Tendencia Minima 5.0 ANUAL Linea de Tendencia Minima AÑOS AÑOS -0.5 4.5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 2. Minimum temperature in El Alto city Figure 4. Minimum temperature in La Paz city 1 Data obtained from Espinoza D. and Fernandez R.; Analysis of Climate Trends in the Region of Sajhuaya River basin. 2011 3 IMPACTS: Illimani Glacier Surface Loss As shown by figures 5 and 6, in the last 46 years, The IPCC (2007, quoted by PNUD, 2011) states that Illimani glacier has lost approximately 21.3 % of its the increase in atmospheric temperature has surface and 22 m of thickness (depth), at an average generated an accelerated melting of glaciers in the speed of 47 cm a year; thus, reducing the capacity of Andean region, with obvious impacts on water the basin for water storage. availability. Glacier Positions between 2007- 2009 Source: Hydrology and Hydraulics Institute, 2010 Source: Ramírez et. al., 2011 Figure 5. Surface extension of Illimani Glacier (1963-2009) Source: Ramírez et. al. 2011 Figure 6. Glacier Surface Loss Trend (1963-2009) 4 IMPACTS: Temperature Increase and Mururata glacier surface loss According to the National Service for Meteorology At the same time, the results of the study made by and Hydrology (SENAMHI) (Figure 8), in the last period Ramírez (2009) in Mururata Glacier show that this (2002 – 2006), the average temperature values are glacier has lost approximately 20.13% of its surface in higher than former periods, showing temperature the last 42 years (Figure 9). increase in the last years2. Figure 8. Average Temperatures in Mururata glacier region. Source: Ramírez, 2009. Figure 9. Mururata glacier surface extensions from 1975 to 2009 2 Results presented in this point correspond to the Project “Adaptation to climate change in regions affected by the melting of tropical glaciers in Bolivia”, supported by DANIDA. 5 IMPACTS: Precipitation Changes When analyzing 1946 – 2009 period, it is possible to PERIOD 1946-2009 PERIOD 1976-2009 see an increase of precipitations with variations in dry 900 900 y = 0.6103x - 605.93 y = -1.6566x + 3919.5 and humid seasons. EL ALTO 800 800 However, the population from Sajhuaya micro-basin 700 700 perceived that there has been a decrease in rainfall in the last years, matching with the observed data 600 600 from 1976 – 2009 periods. 500 500 PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL mm[ ] ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION 400 (mm) ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION 400 According to interviews made – to recover the Serie Cronologica anual Serie Cronologica anual AÑOS AÑOS memories of the population about extreme climate 300 300 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 events - most individuals remember 1983 (El Niño Southern Oscilation Year), recorded as the driest year 800 800 LA PAZ y = 1.4851x - 2434.5 in the Bolivian West. In general, this type of extreme 700 700 y = -3.1736x + 6856.4 events (droughts and floods) affect to the families’ economy; in fact more than 50% of the surveyed 600 600 families use their savings to cope with the impacts of 500 500 extreme climate events, while 17% of community families – from the upper basin– temporally migrate to 400 400 PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL (mm) ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION urban centers (García et. al., 2010). mm[ ] ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION 300 300 Serie Cronologica anual Linea de Tendencia Serie Cronologica anual Linea de Tendencia AÑOS AÑOS 200 200 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Espinoza and Fernández, 2011 6 IMPACTS: Cushion Bogs ADAPTATION STRATEGY At the foot of the glacier there are highland wetlands, Promote the development of sustainable tourist known as cushion bogs or “bofedal”. These activity ecosystems are fragile and essential because they produce the necessary food for livestock; what’s more, Signposting to guide tourists to campsites and at the they are the habitat for native flora and fauna and same time let them know about the melting of the store water coming from the melting glaciers, rainfall or glacier, also about the importance and caring of groundwater, acting as water regulators, especially in dry the cushion bogs. season. Relocate the tourists’ campsite to an area outside the cushion bogs. Conservation of the cushion bogs through regulatory frameworks (e.g. declaration of the place as a Protected Area). Studies carried out by Carafa (2009) indicate that between 1989 and 2009 the cushion bog area increased from 33.7 to 107, 6 hectares, which could be associated with a higher melting of the glacier. Communities from the high zone use these areas for pasturing llamas all year long. Another issue that adds to the climate change impacts is that this area is used as a Elaborate a Management and Conservation Plan tourist campsite. for Cushion bogs 7 IMPACTS: Climate Risks, rock falls and landslides Together with communities, the principal climate and non- climate risks were identified, having maps showing the different risks per community. Climate risks are next: Hail is common from December to March. There is also frost from May to June; however, the latter has not been occurring lately. The lack or bad distribution of rainfall affects to communities from the low area especially. Non-climate risks: these are the landslides, rock falls and river overflows caused by the strong rains and land instability. 8 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Climate risk, rock fall and landslides Early warning community system What do we need to introduce to avoid landslides and rock-falls? Communities should create their own Early Warning System for flooding, hail and drought. Build live barriers Combine the traditional and scientific with fruit trees or knowledge in order to prepare weather other local forecast reports. material. Through the Municipal government prepare in communities, a sensitization and broadcast plan consisting of weather and risk information. Among communities and led by the Municipal Government, generate an emergency plan for river overflowing and flooding. Recover soil through Strengthen the use of local techniques gullies (drainage) (cleaning of channels to avoid river management. overflowing, among others). Present a Food Security Strategy, including different actions, such as, food storage in case of loses caused by extreme events. 9 IMPACTS: Production Systems Communities in the micro-basin are mainly engaged On the other hand fruit trees have been moved in agricultural production. In relation to previous years, towards the basin’s upper side. their productive systems have suffered some variations: Moreover, dependency for irrigation in lettuce production has generated greater demand (Fig. 10). Increase in temperatures has caused an expansion of crop areas, going from a dry production system to an irrigation commercial agriculture with a tendency towards monoculture of Source: García, 2011.
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