IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES THAT DEPEND FROM TROPICAL GLACIERS Prepared by: Adriana Soto Trujillo Review and complementation:
Matilde Avejera, Danitza Salazar, Paula Pacheco, Martín Vilela,
Edwin Torrez
Agua Sustentable
La Paz Calle Nataniel Aguirre Nº 82 entre 11 y 12 de Irpavi Telf/Fax: +591 (2) 2151744 [email protected] Cochabamba Calle Irigoyen Nº 150, entre Juan de la Rosa y Yuracaré (zona Sarco) Telf/Fax +591 (4) 4423162 [email protected] Tupiza Av. Tomás Frias Nº 350 (Zona Plaza San Antonio) Telf/Fax +591 (2) 6945338 [email protected]
1 INTRODUCTION
In the last years, Bolivia has been affected by the impacts of climate change (increase of heat waves, changes in rainy season, floods, droughts and forest fires.), which mainly affect rural communities, who are the most vulnerable because of their low adaption capacity; probably because their way of living is based on the use of natural resources highly sensitive to the changes of climatic conditions, such as water.
Illimani Glacier
In this sense, researches were made in basins that depend on Tropical Glaciers in our country to identify the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of communities, establishing adaptation strategies to cope with this situation.
This brochure shows the decline in two Bolivian tropical glaciers: The Mururata and Illimani. It also
recommends some adaptation strategies for the The impact will be much greater in communities that Sajhuaya River micro-basin, which water source live in the highlands (mountainous area) if projections comes from the Illimani glacier. from the IPCC (2008) are considered, which indicate that water stored in glaciers and in the snow cover will decline this century, reducing water availability in warm and dry seasons in those regions depending on the principal mountain ranges’ snowmelt.
2 IMPACTS: Maximum and minimum temperature increase in the last
decades
Data recorded for the 1975-2009 periods by El Alto The registered data for the same period in La Paz city city station show that the maximum and minimum show increase of maximum and minimum temperatures have extreme values. temperatures. 1
16.5 21.0
ANUAL Linea de Tendecia Maxima 20.5 16.0
20.0 15.5 19.5
15.0 19.0 y = 0.0709x - 122.53 14.5 18.5
TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc) 18.0 14.0 TEMPERATURA (ºc) 17.5 ANUAL Linea de Tendecia Maxima 13.5 17.0 y = 0.0183x - 22.02 AÑOS AÑOS 13.0 16.5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 1. Maximum temperature in El Alto city Figure 3. Maximum temperature in La Paz city
1.5 7.0
y = -0.0036x + 7.5982
6.5 y = 0.0281x - 50.458 1.0
6.0
0.5
5.5
TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc) TEMPERATURA TEMPERATURA (ºc)
0.0 ANUAL Linea de Tendencia Minima 5.0 ANUAL Linea de Tendencia Minima
AÑOS AÑOS -0.5 4.5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 2. Minimum temperature in El Alto city Figure 4. Minimum temperature in La Paz city
1 Data obtained from Espinoza D. and Fernandez R.; Analysis of Climate Trends in the Region of Sajhuaya River basin. 2011
3 IMPACTS: Illimani Glacier Surface Loss
As shown by figures 5 and 6, in the last 46 years, The IPCC (2007, quoted by PNUD, 2011) states that Illimani glacier has lost approximately 21.3 % of its the increase in atmospheric temperature has surface and 22 m of thickness (depth), at an average generated an accelerated melting of glaciers in the speed of 47 cm a year; thus, reducing the capacity of Andean region, with obvious impacts on water the basin for water storage. availability.
Glacier Positions between 2007- 2009
Source: Hydrology and Hydraulics Institute, 2010
Source: Ramírez et. al., 2011
Figure 5. Surface extension of Illimani Glacier (1963-2009) Source: Ramírez et. al. 2011 Figure 6. Glacier Surface Loss Trend (1963-2009)
4 IMPACTS: Temperature Increase and Mururata glacier surface loss
According to the National Service for Meteorology At the same time, the results of the study made by and Hydrology (SENAMHI) (Figure 8), in the last period Ramírez (2009) in Mururata Glacier show that this (2002 – 2006), the average temperature values are glacier has lost approximately 20.13% of its surface in higher than former periods, showing temperature the last 42 years (Figure 9). increase in the last years2.
Figure 8. Average Temperatures in Mururata glacier region.
Source: Ramírez, 2009. Figure 9. Mururata glacier surface extensions from 1975 to 2009 2 Results presented in this point correspond to the Project “Adaptation to climate change in regions affected by the melting of tropical glaciers in Bolivia”, supported by DANIDA.
5 IMPACTS: Precipitation Changes
When analyzing 1946 – 2009 period, it is possible to PERIOD 1946-2009 PERIOD 1976-2009 see an increase of precipitations with variations in dry 900 900 y = 0.6103x - 605.93 y = -1.6566x + 3919.5 and humid seasons. EL ALTO 800 800 However, the population from Sajhuaya micro-basin 700 700 perceived that there has been a decrease in rainfall in the last years, matching with the observed data 600 600
from 1976 – 2009 periods. 500 500 PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL mm[ ] ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION
400 (mm) ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION 400 According to interviews made – to recover the Serie Cronologica anual Serie Cronologica anual AÑOS AÑOS memories of the population about extreme climate 300 300 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 events - most individuals remember 1983 (El Niño Southern Oscilation Year), recorded as the driest year 800 800
LA PAZ y = 1.4851x - 2434.5 in the Bolivian West. In general, this type of extreme 700 700 y = -3.1736x + 6856.4 events (droughts and floods) affect to the families’ economy; in fact more than 50% of the surveyed 600 600 families use their savings to cope with the impacts of 500 500 extreme climate events, while 17% of community
families – from the upper basin– temporally migrate to 400 400 PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL (mm) ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION urban centers (García et. al., 2010). mm[ ] ANUAL TOTAL PRECIPITACION 300 300 Serie Cronologica anual Linea de Tendencia Serie Cronologica anual Linea de Tendencia AÑOS AÑOS 200 200 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Espinoza and Fernández, 2011
6 IMPACTS: Cushion Bogs ADAPTATION STRATEGY
At the foot of the glacier there are highland wetlands, Promote the development of sustainable tourist known as cushion bogs or “bofedal”. These activity ecosystems are fragile and essential because they produce the necessary food for livestock; what’s more, Signposting to guide tourists to campsites and at the they are the habitat for native flora and fauna and same time let them know about the melting of the store water coming from the melting glaciers, rainfall or glacier, also about the importance and caring of groundwater, acting as water regulators, especially in dry the cushion bogs. season. Relocate the tourists’ campsite to an area outside the cushion bogs.
Conservation of the cushion bogs through regulatory frameworks (e.g. declaration of the place as a Protected Area).
Studies carried out by Carafa (2009) indicate that between 1989 and 2009 the cushion bog area increased from 33.7 to 107, 6 hectares, which could be associated with a higher melting of the glacier.
Communities from the high zone use these areas for pasturing llamas all year long. Another issue that adds to the climate change impacts is that this area is used as a Elaborate a Management and Conservation Plan tourist campsite. for Cushion bogs
7 IMPACTS: Climate Risks, rock falls and landslides
Together with communities, the principal climate and non- climate risks were identified, having maps showing the different risks per community.
Climate risks are next:
Hail is common from December to March. There is also frost from May to June; however, the latter has not been occurring lately.
The lack or bad distribution of rainfall affects to communities from the low area especially.
Non-climate risks: these are the landslides, rock falls and river overflows caused by the strong rains and land instability.
8 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Climate risk, rock fall and landslides
Early warning community system What do we need to introduce to avoid landslides and rock-falls? Communities should create their own Early Warning System for flooding, hail and drought. Build live barriers Combine the traditional and scientific with fruit trees or knowledge in order to prepare weather other local forecast reports. material.
Through the Municipal government prepare in communities, a sensitization and broadcast plan consisting of weather and risk information.
Among communities and led by the Municipal Government, generate an emergency plan for river overflowing and flooding. Recover soil through Strengthen the use of local techniques gullies (drainage) (cleaning of channels to avoid river management. overflowing, among others).
Present a Food Security Strategy, including different actions, such as, food storage in case of loses caused by extreme events.
9 IMPACTS: Production Systems
Communities in the micro-basin are mainly engaged On the other hand fruit trees have been moved in agricultural production. In relation to previous years, towards the basin’s upper side. their productive systems have suffered some variations: Moreover, dependency for irrigation in lettuce production has generated greater demand (Fig. 10).
Increase in temperatures has caused an expansion of crop areas, going from a dry production system to an irrigation commercial agriculture with a tendency towards monoculture of Source: García, 2011. lettuce (because of its yield and market value), Fig. 10. Irrigation requirement (l/s) for Tahuapalca community (low area of the basin) (1975-2010) especially in the lower basin. This crop is produced in different times during the year causing in the long- This has also caused a greater term, soil degradation. resistance and increase in pests that attack different crops. Due to this, farmers currently use pest controls that are highly toxic, affecting soil, water, and their health.
10 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Production Systems
Integrated Crop Management Manage and store pesticides in safe places.
It is recommended to incorporate higher Reduce the use of chemical pesticides by the profitability fruit trees in the middle and lower incorporation of organic pesticides. basin. Get information: Participate in MIP events. Implementation and production of improved varieties (seeds and/or seedlings) resistant to Soil Conservation diseases and climate changes.
Elaborate a periodic register for production and Maintain the aynoqas3 (soil rotation costs. management) in some sectors (upper basin).
Integrated Pest Management (MIP) Continue or recuperate crop rotation and terrace Use category III practices. and IV pesticides in Planning land-use at order not to put property level. our health at Apply learnt practices risk. regarding fertilizers and organic pesticides.
3 Succession and rotation of plots at community level.
11 IMPACTS: Hydro resources and Management
Currently the snow-melting of the Illimani glacier is apparently creating greater water availability in the micro-basin communities.
However, if we consider the loss of the glacier area, the increase in the evapotranspiration (ET), and changes in rainfall distribution, in the future, can generate: water reduction, availability, and quality for communities.
Although water management in these communities has adapted to changes, going from a system without irrigation schedules to one with established schedules within the community and among communities with one single irrigation system, today these agreements are getting very complex. This could generate greater conflicts, especially among communities in the basin’s high and low areas.
12 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: Comprehensive Management of Hydro Resources
Besides, it is recommended the implementation of Technologies for water efficient use micro-irrigation systems (drip irrigation, sprinklers). Water storage reservoirs have been constructed as pilot adaptation measures in Khapi and La Granja Actions for reducing hydro erosion communities. Implement infiltration ditches in pasture and fruit-tree areas One Aljibe (closed reservoir) made of Building of live barriers geo-membrane Control of gullies stores water to supply controlled Quality Control irrigation to an experimental plot. Sanitation Education
Two “Atajados” Solid waste management plan (small excavated Community monitoring system for water ponds) have quality been built and covered with geo- Conflicts Management membrane. They Improve the alliances between collect water from communities from the low and high areas irrigation channels of the micro basin. and store it for their use during Promote dialog for the resolution of water shortage periods, they will also be used to try conflicts. sprinkle and drip irrigation.
13 CONCLUSIONS
Over time, there is increasing scientific evidence confirming the causes of global warming and its effects, pointing with certainty to their anthropogenic origin. Consequently, Global Warming and Climate Change will have a significant impact on hundreds of people in the Andes since the Andean region's ecosystems are particularly sensitive.
The Andes are known for their rich biological and cultural diversity, and now face the threat of Global Warming and Climate Change. Since 1939, the temperature of the tropical Andes mountain range has increased from 0.10°C to 0.11ºC per decade, and has accelerated its pace in the last 25 years with a warming of between 0.32ªC and 0.34ºC per decade4. The current rise has already caused serious damage to the Andean ecosystems, including the accelerated melting of tropical Andean glaciers, and even more adverse scenarios are expected.
The tropical glaciers of the Andes are particularly sensitive to Climate Change since the process of glacier’s ice accumulation only occurs under certain conditions during the summer months when rainfall is more intense. According to the IPCC, accelerated glaciers’ melting is a "critical" matter in Bolivia, where water availability has been compromised. The IPCC also states that tropical glaciers are "likely” to disappear in the following decades5. A representative example is the Chacaltaya glacier (4500 m.a.s.l.) which left its condition of glacier in 2009.
The melting of these glaciers associated with other impacts of climate change affect and will significantly keep affecting hundreds of highly sensitive communities due to their dependence to water provided by glaciers and their environment. This will involve the violation of their human rights, such as right to life, food and self- determination among others, which implies that effective measures have to be taken for the adaptation of these communities.
This year, in the framework of the COP17 negotiations in Durban, steps will be taken towards a new global agreement to address this threat; with expectation, we hope that governments have the capacity to arrange mechanisms that curb this disaster in a consistent and disinterested manner, addressing the underlying problems for the benefit of life on the planet.
4 Vuille & Bradley, 2000 quoted by PNUD, 2011. 5 IPCC, 2008.
14 REFERENCES
Agua Sustentable. Estrategia de adaptación al IPCC. Documento Técnico VI: El cambio climático y cambio climático para comunidades afectadas por el agua. 2008 el retroceso del Glaciar Mururata, caso: Microcuenca PNUD. “Tras las huellas del cambio climático en del Río Choquecota. 2011 Bolivia: Estado del arte del conocimiento sobre Carafa, T. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: “Evaluación adaptación al cambio climático, agua y seguridad ecológica de bodefales de la cuenca circundante al alimentaria”. 2011 nevado Illimani”. La Paz, Bolivia. 2009 Ramírez, E. & Machaca, A. Informe del Proyecto Espinoza D. & Fernández R. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: “Restitución fotogramétrica, Nevado Illimani. Illimani: “Análisis de Tendencias Climáticas en la 1963-2009. “La Paz, Bolivia. 2010 Región de la Cuenca del Río Sajhuaya”. 2011 Ramírez E. “Deshielo del Nevado Mururata y su García, M. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: "Calculo de impacto sobre los recursos hídricos de la cuenca de las demandas de riego en la Cuenca del Río Palca”. La Paz: Agua Sustentable, 2009. Sajhuaya desde 1975 hasta 2009”. La Paz, Bolivia. 2011
García, M., & Taboada, C. Informe del Proyecto Illimani: "Vulnerabilidad y adaptación al cambio climático en comunidades de la cuenca del rio Sajhuaya". La Paz, Bolivia. 2010
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www.aguasustentable.org http://glaciares.org.bo/illimani/
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