Final Report
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Transit Development Plan –Final Report CHAPTER ONE DEMOGRAPHICS The city of Fort Wayne has a population of 205,727 (Census 2000). The city is surrounded by two other regional settings – the Fort Wayne metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and Allen County. The Fort Wayne MSA has a population of 502,141 and the county has a population of 331,849. The MSA is comprised of 6 counties: Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Huntington, Wells, and Whitley. Based on these population statistics, Allen County makes up more than half of the MSA’s total population. This chapter is divided into segments on population characteristics, commuting and employment statistics, major trip generators, and income profiles. Generally, many major employers and trip generators are located in downtown Fort Wayne and along the larger roadways radiating outward from downtown. Most residents of the region have vehicles available for commuting and other purposes. The employment rate in the city is less than the employment rate for the surrounding areas, but both are around 70%. The remaining 30% is made up of unemployed persons, students, homemaker, retirees, and others who do not work. A large number of people commute into Fort Wayne and into Allen County every day for work. The average commute time for residents of the county is not very long when compared to national averages. Most people who live in the county also work inside the county. The employment base in the region is primarily manufacturing and secondarily education, health, and social services. The difference in median household income between the surrounding areas and the city of Fort Wayne is great, but that same difference does not exist for per capita income. 1.1 Population Change When looking at the demographics of an area, the current situation as well as the past and projected conditions must be studied. Why changes in transit service were made in the past and how transit needs to change in the future to meet changing demographics and demand can be better understood by looking a the patterns that emerge from such an analysis. The decennial Census provides a ‘snapshot’ of a region’s demographics, which is very useful to understanding the current needs of a population, but does not speak to how the region got to that snapshot or what the future is expected to bring. Past population change, projected population change, and current (Census 2000) characteristics will be explored in this section. Past From 1990 to 2000, population in Indiana grew 9.7% from 5,544,159 to 6,080,485. The population in Allen County grew in a similar fashion. Allen County’s population grew from 300,836 in 1990 to 331,849 in 2000, a change of 10.3%. The Fort Wayne MSA also grew in a similar manner with 10.1%, but the cities of Fort Wayne and New Haven grew at much higher rates of 27.4% and 33.1%, respectively. Figure 1-1 shows population growth in Allen County from 1900 to 2000. Fort Wayne - Citilink Page 3 Transit Development Plan –Final Report Figure 1-1: Allen County, IN Population Change 1900-2000 As can be seen in the figure, growth was greatest mid-century, but slowed from 1970-1990, only to start growing again from 1990-2000. Projected Allen County’s population is projected to grow by 18% between 2000 and 2030. Similarly, the Fort Wayne MSA population is projected to grow by 16% during the same time period. Table 1- 1 lists the projected population for each ten-year period from 2000 to 2030. Table 1-1: Population Projections to 2030 for Allen County and Fort Wayne MSA 2000 2010 2020 2030 Allen County 331,849 346,653 368,166 391,694 Fort Wayne MSA 502,141 521,452 549,915 580,647 Source of Data: Indiana Business Research Center, July 2003 Figure 1-2 describes how Allen County’s population is projected to grow in five-year intervals from 2000 to 2040. Growth in the near future is projected to be rapid but in the longer term the population is still projected to be growing, but will start to level off. Figure 1-2: Allen County, IN Population Projections from 2000 to 2040 Population Projection 2000-2040 for Allen County, IN 420,000 410,000 400,000 390,000 380,000 370,000 360,000 350,000 340,000 330,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source of Data: Indiana Business Research Center, August 2003 Fort Wayne - Citilink Page 4 Transit Development Plan –Final Report Allen County’s projected growth is a function of the location of major employers in the Fort Wayne area, the high income of residents, and the number of available activities among other factors. How the population is dispersed in the region is discussed in the next section. 1.2 Population Density Population density is another important demographic measure because of its inherent ability to show concentrations of people across a landscape. Figure 1-3 illustrates population density in Fort Wayne and surrounding areas for the year 2000 at the Census Tract Level. Densities are very useful for their ability to show concentrations of people but can be misleading due to the composition of the landscape that includes heavily forested areas, wetlands and lakes. These areas are not excluded when calculating the land area of the region. The figures presented here are general density figures because they use total land area per political designation, not only habitable land. Figure 1-3: Census 2000 Population per Square Mile by Tract for Fort Wayne, IN Looking at downtown Fort Wayne, the population is concentrated in the south/southeast and to a lesser extent to the northwest and northeast. The outskirts of the city have very low population density (less than 750.5 people per square mile). Three Census tracts have more than 7,000 Fort Wayne - Citilink Page 5 Transit Development Plan –Final Report people per square mile. These three tracts are located downtown south/southwest of where the Citilink routes converge. 1.3 Youth and Senior Populations For the very young and the very old, age directly impacts mobility, and thus impacts transit demand and usage. Identifying where these populations are concentrated can indicate areas of potential transit demand. Until the age of 16 youth are ineligible to drive, making them dependent on others or on non-motorized modes, such as walking and biking, for their mobility. Once youth turn 16, limited incomes often restrict their ability to own and maintain a vehicle. In addition to middle and high school students Fort Wayne has another demographic of potential transit riders - college students. Although many students attending colleges and universities own cars, limited parking facilities and parking fees dissuade them from driving to campus. Larger schools like IPFW have their own transit systems, but these services generally only offer service on-campus or between campus facilities. Citilink offers these students access to campus from other areas of the city and allows them to travel off campus as needed. Figures 1-4 and 1-5 display the concentration of youths (under age 18) and senior citizens (65 years of age and older) by Census tract for Allen County, IN. Youths have the highest concentrations in eastern and west central Allen County and southeast Fort Wayne. The highest concentration of youths (where they make up 43.7% of the tract population) is found in southeast downtown Fort Wayne. Where the Citilink routes converge in downtown Fort Wayne, the percentage of the population represented by youths is very low (less than 15.3%). Figure 1-4: Census 2000 Concentration of Youths by Tract for Allen County, IN Fort Wayne - Citilink Page 6 Transit Development Plan –Final Report Senior citizens, on the other hand, are more concentrated in Fort Wayne. However, the concentration of seniors is more on the outskirts than in the downtown area. The concentrations are generally found northeast and southwest of the city. The largest concentration of seniors (where they make up 35.3% of the population of the tract) is northeast of downtown. Concentrations of seniors are generally smaller than concentrations of youths. Figure 1-5: Census 2000 Concentration of Senior Citizens by Tract for Allen County, IN For all scales of analysis, the percentage of youths and seniors of the total population is very close to the same – youths 19 and under make up 30% of the populations and seniors 65 and over make up 12% (Census 2000). 1.4 Vehicles per Household Numbers of cars per household is an important statistic to analyze because it describes vehicle dependence and in turn, transit demand in the region. Zero-car households are considered to be entirely dependent upon alternate transportation sources. At all scales of analysis in the Fort Wayne area, the majority of households have either 1 or 2 cars. In the Fort Wayne MSA, 20% of the households have 3 or more cars. Table 1-2 lists the percentage of households with 0-1-2- and 3-or-more cars for the three scales of analysis: Fort Wayne, Allen County, and Fort Wayne MSA. Fort Wayne - Citilink Page 7 Transit Development Plan –Final Report Table 1-2: Census 2000 Number of Vehicles per Household by Geographic Unit Vehicles Available Fort Wayne Allen County Fort Wayne MSA None 9.2% 7.1% 6.5% 1 40.4% 34.1% 32.2% 2 36.9% 41.3% 41.3% 3 or more 13.5% 17.5% 20.0% In Fort Wayne the percentage of households with 1 or 2 cars is 77.3%, which is unusual for an urban area.