8th Mar, 2017

Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance

Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth 23,681.07 84.79 0.36 0.83 3.58 HSCI 3,253.01 13.62 0.42 1.20 4.21 HSCCI (Red Chips) 3,880.62 18.60 0.48 0.00 2.85 HSCEI (H-Shares) 10,229.68 58.58 0.58 2.76 3.36 Mkt T/O ($ Mn) 62,669.45 379.15 0.61 -8.81 0.26

Oversea DJIA 20,924.76 -29.58 -0.14 4.34 6.68 NASDAQ 5,833.93 -15.25 -0.26 2.67 7.69 Shanghai SE Composite 3,242.41 8.54 0.26 2.38 0.84 Crude Oil Futures (US$) 52.85 -0.29 -0.55 0.97 3.95 Gold Futures (US$) 1,216.20 0.10 0.01 -1.88 3.74 Baltic Dry Index 1,033.00 54.00 5.52 44.68 -11.10 USD / Euro 1.0571 -0.0004 -0.04 -1.18 -0.36 Yen / USD 113.920 -0.0600 0.05 -1.90 0.24

HSCEI HSI 20-Day MA 10,298.00 23,826.41

50-Day MA 9,893.83 23,137.65 Source: Bloomberg 9-Day RSI 49.08 47.27

Market Outlook Eric Yuen - [email protected] Hang Seng Index closed up 0.4% at 23,681. Market turnover increased to $62.7 billion. Heavily weighted (700) and Mobile (941) climbed 1.2% and 0.4% respectively. HSBC (5) was flat. Consumption plays and Chinese property developers outperformed the benchmark index. Want Want China (151) jumped 2.8%. Belle Int’l (1880) and Hengan Int’l (1044) both increased 1.1%. Eight largest Chinese property developers grew an average 3.2% among which (2007), R&F (2777) and China Vanke (2202) We forecast a trading surged 4.4%-5.4%. Gaming, local banking and property stocks were mixed. range of 23,000- BOC Hong Kong (2388) added 0.6% while Hang Seng Bank (11) cut 0.6%. (101) climbed 1.9%. Link REIT (823), Swire Pacific (19) and 24,500 for Hang Seng Sino Land (83) all declined 0.7%. Utilities counters ended lower. Power Assets (6), CLP Holdings (2), HK & China Gas (3) and Cheung Kong Infrastructure Index in March but (1038) plunged 0.4%-0.8%. AAC Technologies (2018) was the worst performing index stock, down 2.7%. the risk is on the HSCEI advanced 0.6% led by railway, pharmaceutical and financial stocks. downside. China Railway Construction (1186) surged 2.0%. China Railway Group (390), CRRC Corporation (1766) and CCCC (1800) rose 0.5%-0.7%. Sinopharm (1099) added 1.6%. Postal Savings (1658), China Merchants Bank (3968) and China Minsheng Banking (1988) climbed 1.0%-1.2%. China Life (2628) and New China Life (1336) soared 1.3%-1.4%. Power and automobile stocks showed mixed performance. China Shenhua (1088) was the worst performing HSCEI stock, down 1.0%. We forecast a trading range of 23,000- 24,500 for Hang Seng Index in March but the risk is on the downside.

Remarks: Mason Securities Ltd (“Mason Securities”, CE No.: AAC086) is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission ｜ to carry on Types 1, 4, 6 and 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong. Mason Futures Ltd (CE No.: AAG007) is licensed by the Securities Futures Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 2 regulated activity in Hong Kong.

Industry / Corporate News Jason Lam - [email protected]

Initiate BUY on Auto (175) given its strong model cycle in 2017 and improving product mix

Initiate BUY • Strong sales performance in the first two months of 2017

Risk Level: Medium • Young product line-up compared to peers, alongside with a strong model cycle in 2017 • Release of new production capacity in 2017 as a key sales performance driver Time Horizon: Long • Undemanding valuation at 11.4x 2017 P/E

Geely Automobile (175, $10.70, “Geely”) is a leading Chinese automotive manufacturer that is specialized in the production of low to mid-priced passenger vehicles in China. Leveraging on the design and technological capabilities of Volvo, a leading global automotive manufacturer who was acquired by Geely’s parent company back in 2010, Geely managed to sustain and expand market share in the increasingly competitive automotive market. We hold a positive view on Geely given the following factors: 1) Geely, as shown from its strong sales performance in Jan and Feb, is likely to extend its glamorous sales performance this year despite tax incentive reduction and intensifying competition; 2) Geely has a young product line-up with a strong model cycle in 2017, alongside with improving product mix; and 3) recent retreat in share price offers a good accumulating opportunity for long- term investors who wish to obtain exposure to the expanding Chinese auto market. Geely registered strong sales volume of 102,653 units (+71% yoy) for January and 88,976 units (+167%) for February, achieving 19.2% of the company’s full year sales target of 1.0mn units in the first two months of the year. Although the Chinese government adjusted purchase tax on passenger vehicles with an engine displacement ≤ 1.6L from 5.0% to 7.5% starting 2017 (majority of Geely’s models are below 1.6L), Geely continued to deliver strong sales performance driven by SUVs that accounted for a record high of 41.2% of Geely’s total sales volume year-to-date versus 30.6% in 2016. We believe Geely can maintain its glamorous sales performance this year despite tax incentive reduction and increasing competition. Geely has a relatively young product line-up compared to its main domestic brand competitors (4 of the company’s major sales- driving models were launched in 2016 and contributed approx. 50% of Geely’s sales volume year-to-date), alongside with a strong model cycle in 2017 (6 sedan model upgrades, 1 brand new MPV, 1 brand new small SUV and 1 brand-new SUV and 1 new sedan to be launched under its premium brand “Lynk & Co.”). We noticed that a large backlog on new models (particularly for Boyue and Vision SUV) carried forward by Geely into 2017 was mainly resulted from capacity constraints. As new capacities are released during the further ramp up of Geely’s new production facilities in Baoji, Shanxi and Linhai, we expect these models to extend their strong performance and act as Geely’s main sales drivers for 2017. Moreover, we believe the launch of upcoming models will be well-received by customers and become key earnings drivers of Geely in 2018, given the established client-base of the predecessors for the sedan models and the positive feedbacks received from global media regarding the upcoming CX-11 (SUV) manufactured under the CMA platform co-developed with Volvo. We expect Geely’s sales volume to reach 1.09mn units in 2017, which is 9% higher than management guidance. Our revenue projection stands at RMB85.6bn (+52.2% yoy) for 2017 and RMB109.0bn (+27.3% yoy) for 2018, primarily driven by sales volume growth and higher ASP due to better product mix. This translates into earnings growth of 59% to RMB7.3bn in 2017 and 45% to RMB10.6n in 2018 from our estimated earnings of RMB4.6bn in 2016. Traded at 11.4x 2017 P/E, valuation of Geely is attractive to long-term investors in our view. We therefore initiate a BUY rating on Geely with 6-month target price of $12.00, based on 12.8x 2017 P/E or equivalent to 1.5 standard deviations above its 5-year forward P/E average. Recent Recommendations

Stock Pick Rating Recommendation Highlights TP Luk Fook (590) BUY Focus on China’s network expansion at the right time – Maintain BUY Luk Fook (590) $26.0 (669) BUY Reiterate BUY on Techtronic Industries (669) amid Home Depot’s upbeat quarterly results $31.7 SMIC (981) HOLD Weak management guidance for 1Q17 – Maintain HOLD on SMIC (981) $10.0 Initiate BUY on Great Wall Motor (2333) given its strong model cycle in 2017 and 2018 but Great Wall Motor (2333) BUY $11.4 a relatively cheap valuation Nine Dragons Paper (2689) BUY Reiterate BUY on Nine Dragons Paper (2689) amid satisfactory interim results $11.4 CMEC (1829) BUY Abundant net cash with improving earnings outlook for 2017 – Maintain BUY CMEC (1829) $6.25 Galaxy Entertainment (27) BUY Reiterate BUY on Galaxy Entertainment (27) amid its solid 4Q16 results $44.6 CCCC (1800) BUY Maintain BUY CCCC (1800) on aggressive target of RMB900bn new contracts value for 2017 $12.0 Reiterate BUY on Xinyi Glass (868) on solid annual results and management’s positive Xinyi Glass (868) BUY $8.37 industry outlook Pou Sheng (3813) BUY Pou Sheng (3813) posted robust revenue growth for January – Maintain BUY $2.33

Technical Ideas

Risk: Medium Sany Heavy Equipment (631, $1.66) TP: $1.83 BUY Time Horizon: Short

• Sany Heavy Equipment manufactures coal mining equipment including roadheaders.

• Counter rose 7.1% yesterday, surpassing its critical resistance at $1.60, indicating the counter’s strong uptrend momentum ahead.

• BUY. Short-term target at $1.83. Cut loss at $1.54.

Consensus 2017 PBR: 0.7x Consensus target price: N/A

Source: Bloomberg, Mason Securities

Risk: Low Greentown China (3900, $7.37) TP: $8.11 BUY Time Horizon: Short

• Greentown China is a property developer. The company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

• Counter advanced 5.1% yesterday, surpassing its critical resistance at $7.30. MACD also showed positive crossing, indicating the counter’s further upside potential ahead.

• BUY. Short-term target at $8.11. Cut loss at $6.78.

Consensus 2017 PBR: 0.5x Consensus target price: $7.52

Source: Bloomberg, Mason Securities

RSI Indicator Overbought (9-day RSI> 80) Oversold (9-day RSI<20) Tickers Tickers

28, 293, 460, 488, 580, 631, 689, 1103, 1111, 1159, 1233, 1243, 1268, 1357, 43, 241, 245, 412, 419, 556, 572, 1066, 1303, 1462, 1559, 1589, 2066, 2111, 2298, 1447, 1458, 2002, 2007, 2136, 2343, 2399, 3383, 3399, 6196 2309

Exceptional Turnover & Price Movements

Stock Last Price Turnover / 3-mth Target price up / 2017 Rating*^ Stock Code Price ($) Change (%) daily avg turnover downside (%)* PER* Wanjia Group 401 0.53 23.3 16.1 N/A N/A N/A China Agri-Products Exchange 149 0.57 16.3 4.9 N/A N/A N/A New Ray Medicine Int’l 6108 0.33 13.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A China Zenith Chemical 362 0.09 11.3 11.4 N/A N/A N/A Lonking Holdings 3339 2.36 8.8 3.7 -3.8 4.4 19.6 Bank Of Zhengzhou 6196 5.72 8.5 3.6 N/A 3.0 N/A Zoomlion Heavy Industry 1157 4.39 8.1 4.2 -8.2 3.7 53.4 Shanghai Dasheng Agricultural 1103 0.81 8.0 6.1 N/A 5.0 12.2 Sany Heavy Equipment Intl 631 1.66 7.1 3.9 N/A 3.0 61.4 Sino-Ocean Group 3377 4.00 6.1 2.8 7.6 4.1 6.7 Agile Group 3383 5.53 5.3 6.1 -18.7 2.9 6.4 Greentown China 3900 7.37 5.1 3.6 2.1 3.9 6.6 China SCE Property 1966 2.95 5.0 2.9 0.3 5.0 4.8 Guangzhou R&F Properties 2777 11.56 4.5 4.4 -1.5 3.6 4.6 China Vanke 2202 20.65 4.4 2.5 5.3 3.5 8.2 Newocean Energy 342 2.81 4.1 2.6 24.6 5.0 4.3 Greentown Service Group 2869 2.67 3.9 3.6 35.6 4.7 18.5 Beijing Capital Land 2868 3.50 3.9 2.2 40.3 5.0 4.0 Future Land Development 1030 2.00 3.1 2.2 -7.5 4.0 5.6 Sinotruk Hong Kong 3808 6.52 3.0 2.9 14.7 4.0 20.6 China Overseas Property 2669 1.44 2.9 2.6 32.2 5.0 20.9 Hua Hong Semiconductor 1347 10.02 2.8 3.6 17.5 5.0 9.9 Shimao Property 813 11.36 2.7 3.3 6.0 3.9 5.1 KWG Property 1813 4.91 2.3 2.7 24.3 4.5 3.8 Zhou Hei Ya International 1458 7.68 2.1 12.9 16.4 5.0 18.3 Times Property 1233 5.11 2.0 2.1 21.9 5.0 2.8

Source: Bloomberg, Mason Securities; *Based on consensus estimates ^ The “Rating” indicates analysts’ opinions on the security. It is calculated by converting analysts’ recommendations into a number from 1-5 and taking the average. “5” is the best while “1” is the worst.

A-H Share Premium / Discount (%) Average AH Shanghai Listed -32.8%

Premium/Discount (%) Listed -32.6%

A-H Shares – Shanghai Listed A-H Shares – Shanghai Listed H Share A Share A Close H Close AH Price H Share A Share A Close H Close AH Price Gap Company Name Company Name Code Code (RMB) (HKD) Gap (%) Code Code (RMB) (HKD) (%) 1108 600876 Luoyang Glass 25.61 5.48 -81 1336 601336 New China Life 44.11 38.7 -22 300 600806 Machine 8.59 2.74 -72 1053 601005 Chongqing Iron 2.52 2.24 -21 811 601811 Xinhua Winshare 22.49 7.24 -71 323 600808 Magang 3.35 3 -20 187 600860 Jingcheng 9.57 3.27 -70 1186 601186 CRCC 12.67 11.44 -20 38 601038 FirstMachinery Tractor 13.04 5.01 -66 6837 600837 Haitong Securities 15.66 14.16 -20 1033 600871 SSC 3.91 1.58 -64 525 601333 Guangshen Railway 5.29 4.84 -19 995 600012 Anhui Expressway 14.96 6.18 -63 2628 601628 China Life 25.72 23.7 -18 2866 601866 CSCL 4.13 1.78 -62 6818 601818 Everbright Bank 4.16 3.87 -17 553 600775 Panda 15.09 7.15 -58 2607 601607 Shanghai Pharma 21.61 20.45 -16 2727 601727 Shanghai Electric 8.42 4.08 -57 1088 601088 China Shenhua 16.86 16.16 -15 991 601991 Datang Intl Power 4.64 2.26 -57 1988 600016 Minsheng Bank 8.97 8.68 -14 2238 601238 GAC Group 26.25 12.82 -57 3328 601328 BoComm 6.22 6.08 -13 2880 601880 Dalian Port 2.94 1.44 -56 6030 600030 Citic Securities 16.45 16.86 -9 317 600685 COMEC 34.67 17.14 -56 2196 600196 Fosun Pharma 26.14 27.1 -8 1065 600874 Tianjin Capital 8.6 4.43 -54 939 601939 CCB 5.94 6.18 -8 1171 600188 Yanzhou Coal 10.65 6.1 -49 3988 601988 Bank of China 3.64 3.82 -7 670 600115 China Eastern 7.06 4.12 -48 2601 601601 CPIC 26.99 28.45 -6 588 601588 BeijingAirlines North Star 4.97 2.92 -48 1398 601398 ICBC 4.68 4.97 -6 2883 601808 COSL 13.37 7.89 -48 386 600028 5.63 6.02 -5 3993 603993 China Moly 4.85 2.87 -47 168 600600 Tsingtao Brewery 32.87 35.25 -5 1919 601919 China Cosco 5.99 3.56 -47 3968 600036 CMB 19.24 20.9 -3 564 601717 Zhengzhou Coal 8.56 5.14 -47 1288 601288 ABC 3.24 3.54 -3 1618 601618 MCC 4.94 3.03 -46 2318 601318 35.96 41.7 3 1800 601800 CCCC 17.16 10.8 -44 177 600377 Jiangsu Express 9.1 10.68 4 1055 600029 China South Air 7.74 4.89 -44 3606 600660 Fuyao Glass 19.54 23.95 9 107 601107 Sichuan Exp 5.26 3.34 -44 914 600585 Anhui Conch 20.39 26.5 15 1898 601898 China Coal Energy 6.11 4.03 -41 1138 600026 China Shipping 7.12 4.7 -41 A-H Shares – Shenzhen Listed 1071 600027 Huadian Power 5.11 3.46 -40 1057 002703 Zhejiang Shibao 35.25 8.73 -78 358 600362 Jiangxi Copper 18.62 13.02 -38 568 002490 Shandong Molong 8.29 2.4 -74 902 600011 Huaneng Power 7.73 5.41 -38 42 000585 Northeast Electric 8.85 2.65 -73 2333 601633 Great Wall Motor 12.77 9.07 -37 719 000756 Xinhua Pharma 13.56 5.99 -61 338 600688 Sinopec Shanghai 6.5 4.7 -36 895 002672 Dongjiang Env 18.42 13.56 -35 857 601857 Petrochina 8.09 5.92 -35 921 000921 Hisense Kelon 13.04 9.62 -34 1766 601766 CRRC Corp 10.2 7.54 -34 2208 002202 Xinjiang Goldwind 16.58 13 -30 753 601111 Air China 7.91 5.89 -34 763 000063 ZTE Corp 15.28 12.2 -29 2009 601992 BBMG 4.64 3.56 -32 2039 000039 China Int'l Marine 16.5 14 -25 1072 600875 Dongfang Electric 10.79 8.28 -32 1812 000488 Chenming Paper 12.4 10.3 -26 998 601998 China Citic Bank 6.82 5.24 -32 1513 000513 Livzon Pharm 54.36 46.6 -24 2899 601899 Zijin Mining 3.46 2.77 -29 1157 000157 Zoomlion 4.87 4.39 -20 548 600548 Shenzhen Express 8.98 7.3 -28 1211 002594 BYD 51 44.4 -23 874 600332 Guangzhou Pharm 26.47 21.6 -28 2202 000002 China Vanke 20.26 20.65 -9 390 601390 China Railway 8.8 7.19 -27 1776 000776 GF Securities 17.62 17.26 -13 2600 601600 ChalcoGroup 4.88 4.14 -25 347 000898 Angang Steel 5.92 6.11 -8 6886 601688 Huatai Securities 18.1 15.72 -23 2338 000338 Weichai Power 11.62 14.26 9

HSI & HSCEI Constituents Performance

Price Change (%) Outperform Airline, Consumer, Gaming, IT, Power, PRC Property vs 3M Index 5 D 1 M 3 M High Underperform HK Property, Telecom Hang Seng Index 0 1 4 -2 Mixed Auto, PRC Bank, Infrastructure Hang Seng China Ent Index -1 4 4 -3

Price Change (%) Price Change (%) Stock vs 3M Stock vs 3M Company Name 5 D 1 M 3 M Company Name 5 D 1 M 3 M Code High Code High 1800 China Comm Cons 8 14 19 0 2601 CPIC 0 -2 -5 -6 2202 China Vanke 6 6 -2 -5 386 Sinopec Corp 0 -1 8 -4 390 China Railway 6 6 8 0 12 Henderson Land 0 4 6 -1 293 Cathay Pac Air 5 11 15 0 19 Swire Pacific 0 1 4 -2 1186 China Railway 4 6 4 0 83 Sino Land 0 5 12 -2 135 ConstructionKunlun Gas 3 15 20 0 3898 CRRC Times 0 1 1 -6 1658 Postal Savings 3 5 15 0 144 China Mer Port 0 3 10 -3 27 GalaxyBank ofEntertain China 3 11 1 -2 388 HKEx 0 3 -1 -5 151 Want Want 3 -5 4 -8 688 China Overseas 0 4 8 -3 1928 3 4 -8 -9 6837 Haitong Securities 0 3 -2 -4 836 China Res Power 3 8 12 0 16 SHK Prop 0 4 10 -2 1816 CGN Power 3 10 6 -1 1088 China Shenhua 0 1 0 -3 700 Tencent 2 3 11 -1 267 CITIC Ltd -1 -3 -7 -8 902 Huaneng Power 2 10 8 -1 941 -1 -4 1 -4 916 Longyuan Power 2 4 8 -1 762 -1 -1 0 -3 6030 CITIC Securities 2 7 -2 -3 489 Dongfeng Group -1 6 16 -1 2018 AAC Technologies 2 1 21 -6 1880 Belle Int'l -1 4 13 -4 2328 PICC P&C 1 0 -7 -8 6886 HTSC -1 5 -6 -7 175 Geely Automobile 1 8 29 -4 883 CNOOC -1 -6 -11 -12 2388 BOC Hong Kong 1 2 5 -2 1044 Hengan Int'l -1 3 9 -2 3968 CM Bank 1 9 8 -3 1339 PICC Group -1 2 -2 -3 1766 CRRC 1 4 -1 -2 1109 China Res Land -1 8 12 -5 1336 New China Life 1 -3 -2 -6 1288 ABC -1 9 8 -4 4 Wharf 1 8 11 -1 6881 Galaxy Securities -1 6 0 -5 5 HSBC Hldgs 1 -2 -1 -6 17 New World Dev -2 8 15 -2 992 Lenovo 1 -6 -1 -10 753 Air China -2 9 12 -3 66 MTR Corporation 1 3 8 -1 998 CITIC Bank -2 4 3 -3 1776 GF Securities 1 5 -1 -3 6 Power Assets -2 -3 1 -5 23 Bank of E Asia 1 -1 -1 -7 3328 BOCOM -2 7 3 -5 101 Hang Lung Prop 1 1 12 -1 728 China Telecom -2 -4 -3 -5 2318 Ping An 1 1 0 -2 1988 Minsheng Bank -2 3 -1 -6 2319 1 4 -3 -5 1038 CKI Holdings -2 -2 -4 -4 2 CLP Hldgs 1 2 7 -1 914 Anhui Conch -2 5 18 -4 1359 China Cinda 0 15 13 -2 1398 ICBC -2 4 3 -4 2628 China Life 0 1 5 -4 1211 BYD Company -3 1 0 -4 1299 AIA 0 4 9 -2 3988 Bank of China -3 8 7 -5 857 PetroChina 0 -2 7 -6 823 Link REIT -3 -2 -3 -4 1099 Sinopharm 0 -5 1 -5 1113 CK Property -3 -1 0 -4 3 HK & China Gas 0 1 4 -1 939 CCB -3 7 6 -4 11 Hang Seng Bank 0 -1 8 -3 2333 GreatWall Motor -5 11 19 -8 1 CK Hutchison 0 5 4 0

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Disclosures Investment Rating System Ratings Description Mason Securities Limited’s investment Buy Expected positive return of > 10 % rating system is divided into investment Investment Ratings Hold Expected return range of ~ ±10 % ratings, risk rating and investment time Sell Expected negative return > 10% horizon. The rating scale is subject to change upon periodic review of market by High (H) 90-day volatility of > 50% research department. Assigned ratings are Risk Ratings Medium (M) 90-day volatility of > 30-50% based on company and sector historical Low (L) 90-day volatility of < 30% performance and analysts’ intrinsic Long (L) 6 – 12 Months Investment Time valuation of the stock Medium (M) 3 – 6 Months Horizon Short (S) Less than 1 Month Note: 90-day volatility is measured from the security’s standard deviation of day to day logarithmic historical price changes. The 90-day price volatility equals the annualized standard deviation of the relative price change for the 90 most recent trading days closing price, expressed as a percentage

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