Can We Stop Iran’s Nuclear Bomb?

Winter 2009 –10 www.belfercenter.org Analyzing the War in Afghanistan: Obama’s Fork in the Road R E T

s President Barack Obama continues to N E C

weigh the impacts of American presence R A E

The most important outcome F in Afghanistan, the Belfer Center’s Graham L E Allison , Meghan O’Sullivan , and Rory Stew - is a credible expression of B art offer their comments on the situation at long-term commitment. this fork in the road. —Meghan O’Sullivan

Focus on the goal: “Like most presidents at war, President to disrupt, dismantle, Obama confronts a bad set of strategic options and has the unenviable challenge of choosing and defeat Al Qaeda. Heavy Duty: General David Petraeus (center) the least worst. In doing so, the administration discusses military challenges facing the U.S. at a —Graham Allison should remember that the greatest U.S. strate - meeting with Belfer Center and other Harvard gic interests are in Pakistan. Yet, perhaps Kennedy School experts in June. The Belfer counter-intuitively, this reality underscores the Center’s Meghan O’Sullivan took part in the Graham Allison (Director, Belfer Center for importance of reinforcing current U.S. efforts meeting along with David Gergen , director of Science and International Affairs) in Afghanistan. Closer cooperation with Pak - the HKS Center for Public Leadership. “The goals of defeating the Taliban, elimi - istan is hampered most by Pakistan’s belief that nating the narco-economy, and promoting a the United States is a fickle and easily discour - modicum of modern statehood in Afghanistan & Pakistan project; Member, Belfer Center aged partner. Therefore, the most important are worthy and desirable. But they are not Board of Directors) outcome of this strategic review is a credible essential to achieving what the President “The best Afghan policy would be to expression of long-term commitment. Absent rightly calls ‘our essential strategic problem and reduce the number of foreign troops. In that this, the United States cannot expect Pakistanis rationale’ for being in Afghanistan: ‘To dis - case, two objectives would remain for the or Afghans—the people or their govern - rupt, dismantle, and defeat Al Qaeda in Pak - international community: development and ments—to make hard choices and stand istan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their counter-terrorism. Neither would amount to against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.” return to either country in the future.’ The building an Afghan state. If the West believed central challenge for President Obama in the it essential to exclude Al Qaeda from way ahead will be to sustain focus on what is Reduce the number Afghanistan, they could do it with special required to deliver victory on his precisely- of foreign troops. forces. At the same time, providing generous stated goal—and to reject what is not.” development assistance would not only keep —Rory Stewart consent for the counter-terrorism operations, Meghan O’Sullivan (Jeane Kirkpatrick but is also desirable as an end in itself. The Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Rory Stewart (Director, Carr Center for only thing worse than troop increases would Kennedy School; Member, Belfer Center Human Rights Policy; Founder, Carr Center’s be total withdrawal. That would be disastrous Board of Directors) State Building & Human Rights: Afghanistan for us and all Afghans.”

Belfer Colleagues Impact Policy in D.C. T S

A limate and energy policy, economic John P. Holdren (On leave from Belfer Cen - C P Creforms, and defense planning—these ter faculty and Board of Directors) are among the plethora of issues Belfer Center “John Holdren, the president’s top science adviser, colleagues are currently tackling in Washing - is playing a key role in shaping the Obama ton, D.C. Following is a sampling of work administration’s strategy to combat global warm - underway by John P. Holdren , Lawrence ing.” (“ Obama’s Science Adviser Urges Leader - Summers , and Michèle Flournoy . For more ship on Climate,” Yale Environment 360 , Aug. about Belfer colleagues in Washington, see 14, 2009) http://belfercenter.org/governmentappointees . Holdren is working on the passage of a U.S. Sound Suggestions: John P. Holdren (center left), director of the White House Office of Science and energy bill and preparing for December’s inter - Technology Policy, makes a point to President Barack Obama (center right) at the first meeting of national climate meeting in Copenhagen. He the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) in August. Holdren co-chairs the council. continued on page 2 FROMTHE DIRECTOR R E T N E C R E F L E B The conduct of foreign policy is not primarily the conduct of relations with other governments. It’s resident Obama is facing two of the most primarily a matter of Pimportant foreign policy decisions of his domestic leadership . . . presidency: whether to Americanize the Reflections and Respect: Susan Wood , widow —Ernest May of Ernest May , at a Belfer Center seminar in his Afghanistan war and how to stop Iran from honor in September. May’s daughters Rachel building a nuclear weapon. In thinking about and Donna are also pictured. these issues—as with many others lately—I 2. “When we think about doing something in find myself reflecting on my friend Ernest the world, we should always very closely May , Charles Warren Professor of History and inspect the premises we are operating on— As we think about the fateful choice Presi - a longtime member of the Belfer Center Board always look at them very carefully. McNa - dent Obama faces in Afghanistan and Iran, of Directors, who passed away in the spring. mara makes the point that the premises each of those lessons deserve careful contem - Ernie had impeccable judgment about ques - underlining the Vietnam War were plation. Would that we had the benefit of tions like these—not only intellectual acumen, accepted; they were not analyzed.” Ernie answering his own questions. but also a concern about the real world. As my 3. “The conduct of foreign policy is not pri - On Afghanistan, we should take a cue colleague Joe Nye has said, he was an extraor - marily the conduct of relations with other from Ernie and revisit the question of whether dinary model for what the Harvard Kennedy governments. It’s primarily a matter of Afghanistan is, truly, a “war of necessity.” The School is all about. domestic leadership—this seems to me a decision on that will fundamentally shape tremendously important lesson.” President Obama’s legacy. On the topics of Afghanistan and Iran, I now find myself Colleagues Impact Policy in D.C. (continued from page 1) asking WWED—“What Would Ernie Do?” told the National Journal in an interview on and exploitative overdraft fees. . . . Now is an September 24, that: “It would be a benefit if appropriate moment for financial institutions . we could get a bill before Copenhagen because . . to consider their duty by recognizing that Those of us who had the good fortune to the world does look to the United States to the status quo is not acceptable.” know Ernie share similar stories about his finally become a global leader on this issue. analysis and judgment. Prior to his passing, I We’re already in the process of becoming a Michèle Flournoy (Former r esearch fellow, had more or less assumed there was an endless global leader with the huge investments in the Belfer Center International Security Program) fountain there—I kept calling it up and get - Recovery Act and clean energy. But we need a Under Secretary of ting a good answer. On the topics of bill. And it’s not a prerequisite for success in Defense for Policy Afghanistan and Iran, I now find myself asking Copenhagen but certainly would help.” WWED—“What Would Ernie Do?” Flournoy testified Lawrence Summers To answer that question, I took a look back before the House (On leave from Belfer at Ernie’s reflections on the Vietnam War, Armed Services Com - Center faculty and which he articulated in a 1995 Forum with mittee in October on Board of Directors) Robert McNamara , Thomas Vallely , Hue- the issue of replacing Tam Ho Tai , and myself. At that event, Ernie “No one is indispensable. former President Bush’s drew three lessons from McNamara’s book, But at this moment, proposed plan to place In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Viet - Larry comes very close,” 10 large ground-based nam , that, he argued, were applicable when - said David Axelrod, Mr. interceptors in silos in Poland. ever our country contemplated going to war. Obama’s top political Flournoy said the 30 ground-based inter - (See full video clip at http://belfercenter.org advisor. (“Summers, Contender, to Stay Put,” ceptor missiles to be deployed in Alaska and /publication/19595 .) Wall Street Journal , Aug. 26, 2009) California by the U.S. by the end of 2010 will address the threat that Iranian intercontinental Here they are, in Ernie’s words: A Consumer Financial Protection Agency is ballistic missiles (ICBM) pose to the U.S. 1. “When you are thinking about any foreign one of the many proposed financial reforms “The very real threat of short-range and area—any other government or organized with which Summers, director of the National medium-range ballistic missiles—that is devel - force in the world that has a different his - Economic Council, is involved. He noted in a oping faster—must be dealt with sooner,” she tory and different culture — you need to recent White House blog entry that: “Among said. “Iran’s priorities and capabilities may think about that history and culture, and the President’s proposals, the greatest opposi - change in ways that we can’t predict. So our not to project your own values—not to tion from Wall Street has been reserved for . . . new approach does not discount the potential think that they’ll behave the way you do. a unified, independent agency with just one future threat of an Iranian ICBM.” You have to think about them in their mission: to protect the American consumer own context.” from fraud and abuse. . . . It will take on the old ways of treating consumers: predatory —Compiled by Sharon Wilke lending, inappropriately high credit card rates, 2 How to Prevent or Live with a Nuclear-Armed Iran —Compiled by Sharon Wilke R transparent it will be about all of E s the debate continues over actions the T N its nuclear activities. Maximizing E U.S. and international community C

A R

the likelihood that covert enrich - E should take to prevent Iran from building a F L ment will be discovered is the E nuclear weapon—or using it if built—experts B from the Belfer Center and Massachusetts best way to minimize the likeli - Institute of Technology offer their analyses hood that it will be pursued.” (“A and advice. New Red Line from Iran,” Wash - ington Post , June 1, 2009) Diplomatic pressure has a chance of stopping nuclear efforts A deal could strengthen arguments against R. Nicholas Burns (Professor, Belfer Center) building nuclear weapons Iran at a Crossroads: R. Nicholas Burns (center), professor of Matthew Bunn the practice of diplomacy and international politics with the Belfer “At home, the president’s conser - Center, at a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum titled “Iran: War or Peace?” vative critics charge that his (Associate Professor, Panelists included Elliott Abrams (left) and Mohsen Milani . engagement policy has been Belfer Center) naive, arguing the United States In comments for this article, Deterrence and containment can should return to a more confrontational strat - Bunn said, “I don’t think the work again egy based on military force. They could not be Iranian government as a whole Barry Posen (Professor, Massa - more mistaken. The president’s patient diplo - has made a concrete decision to build nuclear chusetts Institute of Technology ) weapons. Some factions want that outcome, matic pressure on Iran [combined with the “The strategy of deterrence and but others appear to believe Iran can get what threat of sanctions] is a more sophisticated containment has worked for the it needs by establishing the option to build a strategy with a better chance of actually arrest - United States before; there is no weapon when it chooses, without the interna - ing Iran’s nuclear efforts.” (“Obama’s Opportu - reason why it cannot work again. tional reaction that would be provoked by nity in Iran,” Boston Globe , Oct. 1, 2009) . . . In a confrontation with the United States, building nuclear weapons. A deal could Iran would run risks of complete destruction, Persuade Tehran it doesn’t need strengthen the arguments of those who don’t and it cannot threaten the United States with deterrent to be safe think nuclear weapons are necessary for Iran’s comparable damage.” (“A Nuclear-Armed Iran: security.” Stephen Walt A Difficult But Not Impossible Policy Problem,” Bunn believes Iran will not agree to a nego - (Professor, Belfer Center) A Century Foundation Report , 2006) tiated deal that would ban all enrichment in “If we want to stop an Iranian Iran and has suggested a range of measures bomb (as opposed to halting its Convince Russia a nuclear Iran is that could limit the security risks of a deal nuclear enrichment activities), not in its best interests allowing some continued enrichment. These we are going to have to convince include, among others, Iranian agreement to William Tobey (Senior Fellow, Iran that it doesn’t need a nuclear deterrent to accept the Additional Protocol and a broad Belfer Center) be safe. . . . Persuading Tehran that they don’t range of additional transparency measures to “Moscow must understand that need a deterrent requires taking the threat of limit the risk of covert enrichment, interna - the absence of effective interna - force, regime change, and the like off the table , tional ownership and staffing for the cen - tional action on Iran’s nuclear instead of ratcheting the threat level up.” trifuges that continue to operate, and program will drive other policies (“What is Iran up to?” ForeignPolicy.com , Sept. requirements for declaration and monitoring in directions anathema to the Kremlin. It will 25, 2009) of all centrifuge-related procurement, testing, strengthen NATO unity. It will make missile Transparency is vital to any deal and manufacture. defense deployments more imperative. Most of with Iran To get a deal that addresses some of the all, it will cause countries throughout Europe international community’s concerns, Bunn and the Middle East again to turn to the Graham Allison (Director, argues, will require addressing some of Iran’s United States for protection and leadership. In Belfer Center) concerns as well, by implementing a broad short, Russia must be convinced that a diplo - “The central policy question has incentives package, agreeing that the United matic double game on Iran is not worth the become: What combination of States will not attack or attempt to overthrow candle.” (“Is Moscow playing a double game on arrangements, inside and outside the regime as long as Iran complies with its Iran’s nukes?” Foreign Policy , Sept. 4, 2009) Iran, has the best chance of per - nuclear obligations and does not commit or U.S. must acknowledge legitimacy suading it to stop short of a nuclear bomb? sponsor aggression or terrorist attacks against More important than how many centrifuges others, and establishing dialogues to address of Iran’s government Iran continues operating at Natanz is how other issues of mutual concern. (See: “Options Kayhan Barzegar (Research Fel - for Limiting the Security Risks from a Negoti - low, Project on Managing the S

N ated Nuclear Settlement with Iran,” Presenta - Atom/International Security Pro - O

M gram, Belfer Center) M tion, Belfer Center for Science and I S Z

T International Affairs, Sept. 22, 2009. See: “From the Iranian perspective I F http://belfercenter.org/SecurityRiskOptions .) M . . . the first step is Washington’s O T acknowledgement of the legitimacy of the cur - rent leadership, recognition of the right to an independent nuclear fuel cycle, and a measure of respect for the nation’s long-held history as a regional power.” (“The Paradox of Iran’s Nuclear Matters: Matthew Bunn discusses Nuclear Consensus,” World Policy Journal , nuclear weapons at a Belfer Center Project on Fall 2009) Managing the Atom seminar in June. 3 Agriculture Innovation in Africa: Addressing Climate-Smart Growth by Beth Maclin L I T

he Belfer Center’s new Agriculture Inno - The project continues the work published G Tvation in Africa project will work to in “Freedom to Innovate: Biotechnology in address the dual challenges of climate change Africa’s Development,” which Juma and Ismail and food shortages with the help of a gener - Serageldin co-authored and is based on the ous grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates work done by the High Level African Panel on Foundation. Modern Biotechnology. The panel, comprised The project, directed by Harvard Kennedy of people from both in and outside of Africa, School’s Professor of the Practice of Interna - was established by the African Union and the tional Development Calestous Juma, seeks to New Partnership for Africa’s Development to engage with policy makers and focus informa - provide independent advice on biotechnology. tion dissemination on efforts to align science The panel’s main recommendations include and technology missions and operations with the need for individual countries in central, agricultural development goals in Africa’s eastern, western, northern, and southern Africa Regional Economic Communities. It is part to work together at the regional level to scale of the larger agenda to promote regional eco - up the development of biotechnology. nomic integration. “Advancing climate-smart growth strategies Inside Innovation: Calestous Juma observes will demand new diplomatic leadership,” Juma tissue culture propogation of bananas at a genetics technology lab in Nairobi, Kenya. Advancing climate-smart wrote recently. “[Africa] will need to respond regionally through a broad range of measures growth strategies will demand aimed at sustaining human health, agriculture, new diplomatic leadership. energy, water supply, tourism, and many other policy leaders on options for action , not simply the challenges that they face in bringing sci - —Calestous Juma vital sectors. “Most of Africa’s states lack the flexibility ence and technology to bear on agriculture and to respond to major ecological upheavals,” he economic development. There is also a confer - “The initiative is necessary because of the said. “They need room to [maneuver] and can ence planned for mid-2010. worsening food situation in Africa and the rise achieve it by integrating their economies into A new blog on the Belfer Center website, of new threats to agriculture such as climate regional groupings.” “Agricultural Innovation,” features posts by change,” said Juma. “The timing is critical: Juma on agriculture in Africa as the founda - there is greater recognition among African tional sector for the continent’s economic leaders of the importance of innovation in Responses to climate change future. In his second entry, Juma takes a look into the future of climate change and reveals economic development today than was the disruptions must come case a decade ago. Advancing regional innova - disruptions that will take on wartime propor - tion strategies is better done in the early stages at the regional level. tions. He urges that responses must come at of the continent’s regional integration efforts.” —Calestous Juma the regional level and match the enormity of Such cooperation, he said, “will benefit from the challenge at hand. “The best way to avert the growing efforts among African countries political turmoil is to act in time and treat to integrate their economies and create larger Juma plans to publish a book and host an the situation as a state of emergency. That markets.” executive training workshop that will inform means now.” R E T N

Melissa Hathaway Joins Cyber Security Initiative E C R E by Beth Maclin F L E B elissa Hathaway , former acting senior “I am honored to be joining the team at Mdirector for cyberspace at the National Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Security Council, joined Harvard Kennedy my distinguished colleagues from Harvard and School’s Belfer Center for Science and Inter - MIT on the Minerva project,” Hathaway said. national Affairs in October as a senior advisor “I am excited about the opportunity to partner to its cyber security initiative. with the talent and expertise of academia and Hathaway worked on cyber security for harness academia’s power to generate new Presidents George W. Bush and Barack ideas, inform policy, and incubate new tech - Digital Defense: Melissa Hathaway Obama until August 2009, when she left to nologies to address the serious cyber security presenting on “Cybersecurity: establish Hathaway Global Strategies, LLC. challenges facing our nation.” Assuring a Secure, Resilient and She led President Obama’s 60-Day Cyberspace “There are at least 20 international venues Reliable Digital Infrastructure” at a Policy Review from February –May 2009. that are determining the future of the informa - Belfer Center seminar in May 2009. The cyber security project at the Belfer tion communications infrastructure,” Hath - Center, known as Project Minerva, is a joint away said. “Our nation needs to determine contribute to classes at Harvard Kennedy and effort between the Department of Defense, what it collectively needs and wants—and find Law Schools. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and ways to foster public and private shared goals.” “I am thrilled Melissa Hathaway is joining Harvard University. The project explores a While at the Belfer Center, Hathaway will the Belfer Center and Harvard Kennedy wide range of the issues within cyber security work to develop a better understanding of the School,” said Eric Rosenbach , the Center’s from the contexts of international relations policy gaps in international relations. She will executive director for research. “She will be theory and practice. also publish at least two papers and plans to critical to moving the project forward.” 4 These pages feature a few of the talented women and men who are current and former faculty, fellows, staff, and associates of the Belfer Center whose work is making significant contributions in public and private sectors Faculty, Fellows, around the world. BELFER Featured Fellows—Focus on Research

Melissa Willard- regimes tend to have weak bases of domestic the civilian nuclear infrastructure and the Foster on Peace support, even when they are democratic. When army, Pakistan does not use robust, large con - Agreements that foreign support evaporates, these govern - voys. They transfer clandestinely. Those tend ments are quite likely to fall, and the result may to be less guarded and can be a potential point International Security be much worse and even re-invite war. of vulnerability when foreign knowledge of a Program Research transport route might enable somebody within Fellow Vipin Narang on the Pakistani nuclear establishment to work or Taliban threat to collaborate with a terrorist organization that Pakistan nuclear could target that particular convoy. weapons What are key components to a lasting peace It’s conceivable that an insider Qagreement? International Security Program/Project on could steal or divert enough I think peace agreements can be consid - Managing the Atom nuclear material . . . and A ered essentially deals that require enforce - perhaps pass it off to more ment to hold. When one party has an incentive Research Fellow to no longer live up to its side of the deal, this radical elements . . . is when things fall apart. There has been a lot How much of a threat does the Taliban of research on precisely what is needed to make Qpose to Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile, and these deals hold in terms of changes to the bal - what is Pakistan doing to protect against that threat? ance of power, and ways to invite third parties Belfer Center Alumni— in to enforce the agreement. When the army itself has custody of Anuclear weapons, it’s hard to conceive of News and Notes a realistic threat to the integrity of those assets. [F]oreign-imposed regimes It’s clear that the Pakistan army hasn’t relin - elfer Center alumni Stephen Biddle tend to have weak bases of quished control of nuclear weapons to the B(International Security Program (ISP) domestic support, even when civilian government now, so in the unlikely research fellow, 1985–1987), from the Coun - event of a Taliban takeover, I don’t think that cil on Foreign Relations, and Robert Gallucci they are democratic. the army would relinquish control to the Tal - (ISP research fellow, 1989–1993) , president of iban, either. That said, there are several points the MacArthur Foundation, were named by Some recent research says regime change is of vulnerability that do warrant attention. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates as new an effective way to ensure enforcement because The Pakistani nuclear infrastructure that members to the Defense Policy Board. The you are removing some of the very people who produces nuclear weapons has personnel liabil - board provides the secretary, deputy secretary, have every incentive to undermine the peace ity programs, but over time it’s conceivable and under secretary for policy with indepen - agreement. There is a lot to be said for this; that an insider could steal or divert enough dent, informed advice and opinions concern - however, there is also a lot to be said about the nuclear material that would go undetected and ing matters of defense policy. idea that the state imposing the new regime perhaps pass it off to more radical elements Kristin Bakke (Intrastate Conflict Pro - needs to have a rationale to continue to sup - either within or outside of Pakistan. When gram/ISP research fellow, 2007–2008 ) was port it, especially because foreign-imposed nuclear weapons are being transported between named lecturer in politics and international relations in the Department of Political Sci - ence, School of Public Policy at University Belfer Center Welcomes 2009–10 Fellows College, London. s students returned to Harvard Kennedy School in September, more than 30 new fellows William (Dale) Anderson (ISP research A arrived at the Belfer Center, ready to conduct research within the Center’s various pro - fellow, 2008–2009 ) was assigned to the Pen - grams and projects. Hailing from countries as diverse as South Korea, Iran, South Africa, and tagon (the Office of the Deputy Assistant Italy, as well as the United States, they are researching issues of critical significance, ranging Secretary of Defense for Strategy) as military from security challenges to climate change and energy policy. assistant for Air Warfare Programs. The office prepares the Quadrennial Defense Review R “The Belfer Center’s research fellows bring to the E

T and the National Defense Strategy among N Center and to Harvard a rich diversity of experience, E

C other duties.

R insight, and ideas,” said Eric Rosenbach , Belfer E

F Rasmus Bertelsen (Science, Technology, L Center executive director for research. E B For the full list of fellows and their areas of and Public Policy research fellow, 2006–2008; research, see: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu Dubai Initiative research fellow, 2008–2009) /publication/19570/ . was named Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Fellow at United Nations Univer - Making Connections: Belfer Center research fellows sity’s Institute of Advanced Studies in Yoko - Melissa Chan (left), Sarah Zukerman Daly , and hama, Japan. Charles Jones at Center orientation in September. 5 Belfer Center Programs and Projects : International Security Program (ISP); Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP); Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP); Program on Intrastate Conflict (ICP); Dubai Initiative (DI); Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group Staff, and Alums (ETIP); Project on Managing the Atom (MTA); Science, Technology, and Globalization Project CENT(STG); EBroadmoor PrRoject; Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements; Initiative on Religion in International Affairs; Agricultural Innovation in Africa Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture by Mohammed Al-Juaied and Adam Whitmore

2–5¢/kWh, with costs of the range of range of $90–135/tCO 2 avoided). For NOAK $35–70/tCO 2 avoided. Costs of abatement plants costs are expected to be $25–50/tCO 2. with carbon capture for other fuels and tech - Based on these considerations a likely rep - nologies are also estimated for NOAK plants. resentative range of costs of abatement from The costs of abatement are calculated with ref - CCS excluding transport and storage costs erence to conventional SCPC plant for both appears to be $100–150/tCO 2 for FOAK emissions and costs of electricity. plants and perhaps $30–50/tCO 2 for NOAK Estimates for both FOAK and NOAK are plants. mainly based on cost data from 2008, which was at the end of a period of sustained escala - tion in the costs of power generation plant and [M]ature technology would be other large capital projects. There are now competitive with conventional indications of costs falling from these levels. fossil fuel plants at prevailing This may reduce the costs of abatement and costs presented here may be “peak of the mar - carbon prices. Mohammed Al-Juaied , a 2008–09 visiting ket” estimates. scholar with the Belfer Center’s Energy Technol - ogy Innovation Policy research group, co-authored The estimates for FOAK and NOAK costs appear to be broadly consistent in the light of the Belfer Center discussion paper, “Realistic Costs Innovation and integration can of Carbon Capture,” with Adam Whitmore , estimates of the potential for cost reductions chief economist with Hydrogen Energy Interna - both lower costs and increase with increased experience. Cost reductions are tional Ltd. The paper, published in July 2009, is net output. . . . These factors are expected from increasing scale, learning on available at: http://belfercenter .org/CCcosts . individual components, and technological expected to reduce abatement innovation including improved plant integra - Abstract: costs by approximately 65 tion. Innovation and integration can both here is a growing interest in carbon cap - percent by 2030. lower costs and increase net output with a Tture and storage (CCS) as a means of given cost base. These factors are expected to reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. reduce abatement costs by approximately 65 However there are substantial uncertainties If general cost levels return, for example, to percent by 2030. about the costs of CCS. Costs for pre-combus - those prevailing in 2005 to 2006 (by which The range of estimated costs for NOAK tion capture with compression (i.e. excluding time significant cost escalation had already plants is within the range of plausible future costs of transport and storage and any revenue occurred from previous levels), then costs of carbon prices, implying that mature technol - from EOR associated with storage) are exam - capture and compression for FOAK plants are ogy would be competitive with conventional ined in this discussion paper for First-of-a- expected to be $110/tCO 2 avoided (with a fossil fuel plants at prevailing carbon prices. Kind (FOAK) plant and for more mature

technologies, or Nth-of-a-Kind plant 400 (NOAK).

350 There is a growing interest in 300 carbon capture and storage

(CCS) as a means of reducing h 250 W M

carbon dioxide. . . . However / $

8 200 0

there are substantial 0 2 E

uncertainties about the costs. O

C 150 L

For FOAK plant using solid fuels, the lev - 100 elised cost of electricity on a 2008 basis is approximately 10¢/kWh higher with capture 50 than for conventional plants (with a range of 8–12¢/kWh). Costs of abatement are found 0 Gas Coal CCS Nuclear Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Concentrated Solar PV–Domestic typically to be approximately $150/tCO 2 Solar Thermal Decentralised avoided (with a range of $120–180/tCO 2 avoided). For NOAK plants the additional cost Figure 8: Relative Costs of Low Carbon Electricity Generation. Source: Estimates by Hydrogen Energy of electricity with capture is approximately Based on a Return of 10 percent (Nominal Post-Tax). 6 Biofuels: A Solution for the Developing World? Workshop urges clear standards to prevent negative impacts by Amanda Swanson R E

hat is the potential for biofuels to and Europe. In general, policy T N options for managing the potential E help meet the world’s energy needs, C

W R risks and benefits of biofuel devel - E protect the environment, and advance the F L E livelihoods of farmers and other land users opment should specify not only B around the world? Participants of a workshop clear standards governing biofuel organized by the Belfer Center’s Environment content and production processes, and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) and but also certification processes for Harvard Kennedy School’s Sustainability Sci - verifying whether particular biofu - ence Program discussed these questions as they els meet those standards, and spe - addressed the goals of a sustainable biofuel cific metrics or indicators on which industry in developing countries and the role to base the certification. Histori - of certification processes in attaining these cally, many standards in the energy goals. The two-day event in late spring and environment fields have ulti - Fueling the Debate: Henry Lee (left), director of the Belfer attracted more than 20 leading experts from mately been set or supported by Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program, leads a governments. Many of the certifi - discussion at Harvard Kennedy School’s Biofuels and around the world, representing academia, busi - Certification workshop in May. ness, and government. cation processes have been volun - “In the next few years, both the United tary, carried out by independent States and Europe will endorse environmental third parties. The biofuels case is a young one, adjust to changes in policies and programs can sustainability standards that biofuels must however, with questions of goals, standards, enhance the public’s acceptance of the biofuel reach to be certified as renewable fuels,” said certification, and metrics still in interdepen - option while protecting key social and envi - Henry Lee , director of ENRP. “If governments dent flux. The workshop focused its discus - ronmental goals. do not require reductions in direct emissions sions on certification issues, but found the A second set of questions revolves around of carbon, they will undercut their biofuel discussions naturally reaching into ongoing the locus of responsibility for certifying mandates, but if they become overly ambitious debates regarding possible goals, standards, and whether biofuel production meets sustainabil - and include a wide menu of standards dictat - metrics. ity targets. Should the biofuel processing firms, ing land and water uses as well as social goals, third parties, or governments be responsible they may seriously undermine the potential for for certifying the production of biofuels? This biofuel production in the developing world.” While the threat to both forests question also elicited significant discussion. A report on the workshop, produced by and food supplies from While it could be easier to have individual Lee and Charan Devereaux and titled, “Biofu - increased biofuel production is country governments assume the certification of production responsibility, some govern - els and Certification,” looks at the issues real, it is not clear that setting involved in mandating the use of biofuels for a ments may not have the capacity to implement particular percentage of transportation fuels, broad sustainability standards an effective certification process. Production and in particular, the process of certifying and then requiring sellers to facilities that comply with international stan - whether the biofuels meet clear standards. dards should not be kept out of the market certify . . . standards have been because of their government’s inability to man - met is the best way to address age the process. The possible contribution to A strong global biofuels these interconnected problems. effective certification of third party organiza - industry will not emerge unless tions or public-private partnerships should not —“Biofuels and Certification” be underestimated. these environmental and social The complete report can be accessed at: concerns are addressed. Many countries are proposing that for a http://belfercenter.org/biofuelsand —“Biofuels and Certification” biofuel to qualify as contributing to govern - certification . L

ment-mandated targets or goals, it must be E D E I

certified to meet certain standards. These stan - R S

The executive summary notes the following: E

dards could be limited to the amount of GHG L R Liquid biofuels can provide a substitute for emitted in the production process or could A H fossil fuels in the transportation sector. Many C include a number of other environmental sus - : O countries have mandated the use of biofuels, T

tainability concerns ranging from deforestation O H by creating targets for their use. If not imple - and biodiversity to water resources. While the P P mented with care, however, actions that threat to both forests and food supplies from A increase biofuel production can put upward increased biofuel production is real, it is not pressure on food prices, increase greenhouse clear that setting broad sustainability standards gas (GHG) emissions, and exacerbate degrada - and then requiring sellers to certify that all of tion of land, forest, and water sources. A those standards have been met is the best way strong global biofuels industry will not emerge to address these interconnected problems. In unless these environmental and social concerns particular, if too many standards and related are addressed. certification requirements are put in place too Interested parties around the world are soon, this could constrain the development of actively debating the design and implementa - a global biofuels market. In contrast, certifica - tion of policies to meet the biofuel goals, par - tion targeted at a specific and limited set of ticularly those established in the United States problems and designed with the flexibility to

7 E T A N E S . S . QU.S. S&enatoA r Jack Reed U An alumnus of Harvard Kennedy School, Francis (Jack) Reed was elected to the U.S. Senate from Rhode Island in 1996. A leader on defense, education, and health care issues in the Senate, Reed is a senior member of the Armed Services Committee. Prior to his Sen - ate election, he represented his state in the U.S. House of Representatives. Reed served in the U.S. Army from 1967 to 1979, earning a Masters in Public Policy from the Kennedy School in 1973. In 1982, he received a J.D. from Harvard Law School.

Former President Clinton recently counterinsurgency strategy also assumes a Qobserved that when he thinks about complimentary counterterrorism strategy. The the predicament in Afghanistan, he sees counterterrorism strategy is focused on mili - “ghosts of Vietnam.” What do you find to tary activities to disrupt and destroy terrorist be the most relevant lessons from Vietnam networks. Both strategies are important in for the decisions that President Obama and Afghanistan. the nation now face in Afghanistan? Counterterrorism operations depend on Taliban will be more disposed to switch sides The experience in Vietnam taught us that accurate and timely intelligence and speed of and tribal and religious leaders will be more insurgencies are ultimately political struggles action. These factors are enhanced by a “pres - willing to endorse these efforts and guarantee shaped by local culture. Military actions can ence.” Although some suggest that this pres - the sincerity of the individual. buy time, but they are not decisive in them - ence can be remote or virtual through the use Most analysts agree that the U.S. has selves. The decisive factor is the commitment of technology, there is a strong case for a phys - more vital interests in the fight of of people to their government, which presumes ical presence. In addition, the ability of insur - Q Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Do you a government that can provide security and gents, particularly the Taliban and Al Qaeda, agree? If so, is the allocation of attention public service, and is perceived as working on to regenerate their forces indicates that coun - and resources between Afghanistan and behalf of its people. terterrorism operations will be long-term, Pakistan appropriate? If not, how should it Vietnam also taught us to carefully ana - which also argues for a physical presence. be adjusted? lyze the assumptions underlying our involve - Counterinsurgency operations are intended ment and the nature of the particular to stabilize the legitimate government and, as Pakistan is the most critical area of concern in struggle. We must ensure that there are vital rapidly as possible, provide the local capacity the region, if not the world. The leadership of American national security interests at stake, to ensure security and adequate governance. Al Qaeda is located there. The leadership of and these interests cannot be protected with - This process requires a physical presence in the Taliban is there. Within Pakistan and out our involvement. Unlike Vietnam, we order to create an environment for long-term spilling into Afghanistan is a syndicate of ter - were drawn to Afghanistan by a direct attack and sustainable activities which shifts the bulk rorist groups with various affiliations to Al on American soil. of operations to local forces to prevent regener - Qaeda and the Taliban. And, a disturbing Finally, Vietnam taught us that our policy ation of insurgent forces. number of worldwide terrorist plots emanate must be sustainable over time. This factor, in from Pakistan. Added to this tumultuous and You have said that elements of the large part, rests on the willingness of the dangerous mix is the sobering fact that Pak - insurgency in Afghanistan might be American people to support the effort, and the Q istan has a large and growing nuclear arsenal. persuaded to cease attacks or even switch ability of the Administration to effectively One of the most important insights that sides. What strategy would you propose to communicate the rationale and consequences President Obama brought to our strategy was peel the reconcilable Taliban from the of our involvement. recognition of the interrelationship between incorrigibles? Afghanistan and Pakistan, and also India. As Do you believe that a counterinsur - The Taliban is comprised of a core of fanatical such, we must measure our efforts in terms of Qgency strategy is an essential prerequi - jihadists who will not give up armed resistance both countries and not view each country in site for achieving President Obama’s stated to the legitimate government. However, there isolation. As a result of this regional perspec - objective “to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat are a number of Taliban who are involved for tive, we are reevaluating our posture in al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and non-ideological reasons. These numbers are Afghanistan and increasing the quantity of our to prevent their return to either country in difficult to determine, but they are not aid to Pakistan as well as the focus of our the future”? insignificant. Some are drawn to the Taliban efforts there. In Pakistan, we are working with Counterinsurgency embraces a wide range for economic reasons. Some are reacting to the military to help develop their counterin - of tasks that go beyond military operations tribal pressures. Some are disenchanted with surgency skills and to acquire equipment and extends to governance and economic the government for its inability to deliver basic geared to counterinsurgency operations. We development. Moreover, in most cases, services. Some are engaged in criminal activi - have also increased our developmental aid to ties and the Taliban serve as a convenient, help provide an appropriate complement to G

R short-term ally. military efforts. These changes represent an U B

M To win over a portion of these non-ideolog - improved approach to meeting our natural A

H ical Taliban, we have to provide incentives and security needs. Y R

R security. We have to have a uniform procedure, Although our efforts in Afghanistan and A H / including vetting applicants, that is supported Pakistan are linked, we operate under different O T

O by the national government in Kabul, but also constraints. In Afghanistan, as the largest com - H P implemented and endorsed by local authorities ponent of the NATO force, we are directly P A including tribal and religious leaders. The most engaged in support of that country’s govern - obvious incentive is paid employment. This ment. In Pakistan, we have no similar military employment must be seen as more than tem - presence, and we are supporting the efforts of porary. Concurrent with these types of efforts, an established and sovereign country and their the Afghan government and international armed forces. As such, the needs of each coun - Power Walk: Senator Jack Reed (left) with forces must deploy an aggressive information try are different and the means of meeting Senator Kent Conrad in Washington, D.C. effort to discredit the Taliban so that individual their needs is therefore different. 8 T R A W E T S A H

T Providing Leadership . . . R A M BELFER Dual Decisions: Graham Allison (center), director of the Belfer Center, moderates a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum discussion with Kathleen Stephens , United States ambassador to South Korea, and Han

S Duk-soo , South Korean N

O ambassador to the U.S. M M I The discussion of S Z

T challenges facing the I F Korean peninsula was M O

T titled “Ambassadors’ Dialogue.” The event was sponsored by the Belfer Center along with The Kim Koo Forum on U.S.-Korea Relations at the Korea Institute at Human Interest: Samantha Power , senior Harvard University and director for multilateral affairs with the The Korea Economic National Security Council and founding Institute. executive director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, R E speaks at a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, “Why Human Rights Matter,” celebrating T N the 10th anniversary of the Carr Center. Prior to the launch of the Carr E C

Center, Power was executive director of the Belfer Center Human Rights R E F L

Initiative. During the event, which included current and past Carr Center E Directors Rory Stewart and Sarah Sewall , Power said that one of the most B gratifying things about her work with the Carr Center is to see how questions that were being asked 10 years ago are no longer on the table. R E T N E C R E F L E B

Essential Safeguards: Olli Heinonen , International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deputy director general and head of the Department of Safeguards, presents on nuclear nonproliferation at a Belfer Center/ Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) seminar in September. He makes a point to Matthew Bunn (right), associate professor of public policy and co-principal investigator of MTA. Also pictured is Henry Lee , director of the Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program, listens. Sense and Security: Leslie Gelb (center), president emeritus of the Council on

Foreign Relations, enjoys a light moment with Joseph Nye and Paula Dobriansky at a Belfer R E T

Center directors’ lunch in October prior to discussing his new book Power Rules: How Common Sense N E can Rescue American Policy . Gelb is a former reporter and editor for the New York Times and previously C R E

was director of policy planning and arms control for international security affairs at the Department F L E

of Defense. He received the Pentagon’s highest award, the Distinguished Service Award. In his book B Power Rules , Gelb says deterrence is underappreciated as a policy tool, even though it worked in the Cold War. He says: “deterrence has worked on almost all occasions when presidents positioned it clearly and firmly.” R E T N E C R E F L E B

Pivotal Position: Richard Falkenrath , deputy Timely Advice: The Belfer Center’s Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group commissioner of counter terrorism with the discussed their recently released book Acting in Time on Energy at an event sponsored by Brookings New York City Police Department and former Institution in Washington, D.C. in late spring. The authors who discussed their findings and executive director of the Belfer Center, speaks recommendations regarding policy included Kelly Sims Gallagher (second from right), then in September at a Belfer Center directors’ lunch on director and currently senior associate of ETIP and energy and environmental policy professor at “Terrorism: A View from the Trenches.” Falkenrath Tufts University, and (left to right) the Belfer Center’s Laura Diaz-Anadon , Harvard Kennedy oversees several hundred uniformed and civilian School’s William Hogan , and the Belfer Center’s Henry Lee . The event was moderated by personnel assigned to security and counter- Brookings’ Robert Faherty (right). terrorism units.

9 AdSvancPing PEolic Ay-ReleKvantEKnoRwledSge S T R Energizing the N Worldly Wisdom : Paul Volcker , A O M W Electorate: Secretary chair of President Obama’s Economic E M I T S S of Energy Steven Recovery Advisory Board, presents Z A T I

H Chu (left) speaks at “The Financial Crisis in Perspective” F T R a John F. Kennedy Jr. M at a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum in A O M Forum in August T October. Volcker, a member of the about the need for Belfer Center International Council, innovative energy has provided the president with technologies to help international as well as national solve the climate perspective on the crisis. “I don’t change challenge. think we’re going to have a U.S. Congressman sustainable recovery from this Edward Markey recession unless we deal with the introduced Chu and joined in the forum discussion titled “Laying the underlying structural imbalance in Foundation for the Next Generation of Clean Energy Jobs.” the economy,” Volcker said during the Forum. “I think we’ve got to regain—

T to sound really old fashioned—some R A ability to produce goods.” W E T S A H T R R E T A N M E C R E F L E B

Just and Unjust: Niall Ferguson (center), Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard and member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, discusses “Justice: What’s the Right Thing to Do?” with panelists Lani Guinier (right) and Michael Sandel . Not pictured is Peggy Noonan , Common Grounds: Dan Meridor (left), minister of intelligence and atomic energy who also took part in the Forum discussion in October at the John F. in the Israeli Cabinet, discusses security and nuclear issues at a Belfer Center Kennedy Jr. Forum. directors’ seminar. Ryan Crocker , former ambassador to Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon, Syria, and Kuwait, took part in the discussion. Crocker spoke later in the day at the R

E John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum event titled “Lessons from the Long War: The U.S. in the T N

E Middle East.” C R E F L S E A B B B A N A S S A H Y B D E D I V O R P

Ultimate Deterrence: Negeen Pegahi , a research fellow with the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) and the International Security Program, presented “Deterrence Theory and Nuclear Strategy: Pakistani Presence: Hassan Abbas (right), a senior advisor with the Belfer Center, Basic Logics and Concepts,” at a brown bag seminar in June. The seminar, with Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari in July. Abbas, a former Pakistani government a part of MTA’s ‘Nuclear 101’ series, focused on uses of force/military official who is currently a Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the Asia Society’s New York strategy, basic concepts with respect to nuclear energy, and broader headquarters working on U.S. relations with South and Central Asia, is a former Belfer political implications for nuclear activity. Center fellow.

10 T R A E W T S

Paula Dobriansky by Sasha Talcott A H T R A

SPOTLIGHT M Paula Dobriansky is a senior fellow with Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. She previously served as undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs for the Bush administration, and also was a senior vice president and head of the Washington office for the Council on Foreign Relations.

t was, wrote the Associated Press, a bit of also was designated as the Special Coordina - I“star power in Baghdad.” When actress tor for Tibetan Issues and the President’s Spe - Angelina Jolie visited Iraq in early 2008, she cial Envoy on Northern Ireland, with the arrived with a senior State Department official: rank of Ambassador. Paula Dobriansky , then undersecretary of While growing up, Dobriansky originally state for democracy and global affairs. thought she would go into medicine. But her Together, Dobriansky and Jolie met with father, Lev Dobriansky , a Georgetown eco - became senior vice president and head of the General David Petraeus , top commander in nomics professor and prominent member of Washington office of the Council on Foreign Iraq, as well as Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al- the Ukrainian-American community, per - Relations. Maliki , to highlight the plight of Iraq’s dis - suaded her to pursue a career in foreign affairs At the National Security Council, Dobrian - placed. Though thousands of refugees had instead. She attended Georgetown’s School of sky worked with Colin Powell , then deputy returned to the country, many of their com - Foreign Service as an undergraduate and later national security advisor. When President Bush munities had been bombed, shelled, or taken earned her master’s and Ph.D. from Harvard, named Powell Secretary of State, Powell played over by another of Iraq’s rival factions. where she wrote her thesis on the military a key role in bringing Dobriansky to the State Through the series of meetings, Dobriansky determinants of Soviet foreign policy. While at Department as undersecretary of state for and Jolie (who serves as the UN’s Goodwill Harvard, she took classes with Harvard global affairs. Dobriansky had also gotten to Ambassador on the topic) were able to per - Kennedy School professors Graham Allison , know Bush foreign policy advisor Richard suade the office of the UN High Commis - Joseph S. Nye , and Ernest May . Armitage during the Bush-Cheney campaign, sioner for Refugees to significantly increase its and she served as a foreign policy expert dis - staff in Baghdad and the Iraqi Government to Her portfolio encompassed . . . cussing the Republican platform during the provide more aid to the displaced. 2000 Republican National Convention. “It was a very significant and moving trip,” democracy, human rights, As undersecretary, Dobriansky was espe - Dobriansky said. labor, refugee and humanitarian cially active in setting up a global fund for Dobriansky, now a senior fellow at Har - relief matters, and HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, as well vard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, served as working on international women’s issues— as undersecretary from 2001 to 2009, making environment/science issues. including the establishment of the U.S.- her the longest-serving person in that position Afghan Women’s Council. While serving as the in history. Her portfolio encompassed a broad While still working on her dissertation, President’s Special Envoy to Northern Ireland, range of critical foreign policy issues, includ - Dobriansky took a job in President Reagan’s Dobriansky played a pivotal role in holding a ing democracy, human rights, labor, refugee National Security Council, where she eventu - business investment conference there, under - and humanitarian relief matters, and environ - ally became director of European and Soviet scoring U.S. commitment to the peace process. mental/science issues. She led the U.S. dele - Affairs. She then moved to the State Depart - She also spearheaded many of the State gation in international negotiations that ment, where she worked on human rights Department’s democracy promotion initiatives. focused on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, issues, and later the United States Information Dobriansky’s array of responsibilities made the current global climate agreement whose Agency, where she served as associate director for no shortage of high-profile moments. Soon first commitment period ends in 2012. She for policy and programs. In the late 1990s, she after becoming undersecretary, Dobriansky found herself in the White House residence meeting with President George W. Bush and the Dalai Lama . In the meeting, the Dalai Lama spoke of his desire to establish a dialogue with Chinese government officials—an initia - tive that the Bush Administration helped launch during Dobriansky’s tenure. “His Holiness is a person of great compas - sion, who desires to see cultural and religious freedom in Tibet,” Dobriansky said. Her return to Harvard after 30 years marks a full circle for Dobriansky—and a chance to work alongside the professors who were influential in her early career. Dobrian - sky still remembers Allison’s and Nye’s class on national security decision-making, where she wrote a one-page policy memo on conven - tional arms transfers. “It was one of the best courses being taught at the time at the Kennedy School,” she said. Star Power: Paula Dobriansky (left) with General David Petraeus and Angelina Jolie in Iraq “It was very practical. I have well-used many of in 2008. the skills that I acquired from that course.”

11 International Security • EnviroNnmentEand WNatural RSesourMces Paul Anastas, former senior associate with the Environ - ment and Natural Resources “ON MY MOST RECENT VISIT TO “THE MOST WORRISOME ASPECT of Program, was nominated by WASHINGTON, I could not help being these recurring incidents is that facilities from President Obama to be assis - struck by the shift that has occurred from the which the materials originated did not report tant administrator for imperial presidency of the Bush era to some - them missing. In addition, there have been research and development at the Environ - thing like parliamentary government under some notable lapses in warhead security, even mental Protection Agency. Anastas, known Mr. Obama. This president proposes; Con - in the United States.” as the father of “Green Chemistry,” is direc - gress disposes.” —Rolf Mowatt-Larssen , “Nuclear Security in tor of Yale’s Center for Green Chemistry —Niall Ferguson , “A Runaway Deficit May Pakistan: Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Ter - and Green Engineering. Soon Test Obama’s Luck,” Financial Times rorism,” Arms Control Today (July/August R. Nicholas Burns , a mem - (August 11, 2009) 2009) ber of the Belfer Center’s board of directors and Har - “IN RECENT YEARS, THE PACE OF “IN THE LONG-TERM, HOWEVER, vard Kennedy School profes - INNOVATION in the financial sector has WHAT REALLY MATTERS is whether the sor of the practice of outstripped the pace of regulatory moderniza - Muslims of South Asia will be able to roll back diplomacy and international tion, leaving entire markets and market partici - the spread of Talibanization altogether. The politics, was named director of the Aspen pants largely unregulated.” answer to that question lies within the various Strategy Group. Co-chaired by Brent Scow - —Lawrence Summers and Timothy Geith - Muslim communities of the region, not just in croft and the Belfer Center’s Joseph S. Nye, ner , “ A New Financial Foundation,” Washing - Pakistan.” the Aspen Strategy Group is a bi-partisan ton Post (June 15, 2009 ) —Hassan Abbas , “A Long Fight for Pakistan’s forum “dedicated to thoroughly exploring Soul,” Korea Herald (June 25, 2009) the critical national security and foreign pol - “THE CBO ESTIMATES THAT THE icy challenges facing the nation.” HOUSE COMMITTEE VERSIONS of the “KASHMIR LOOKS REMARKABLY DIF - Vaidyanantha Gundlupet , a Obama health plan would add more than $1 FERENT from the streets of Srinagar than it research fellow with the trillion to federal deficits over the next decade. does from the seminar circuits of Delhi, and International Security Pro - But the actual costs would be much higher.” Kashmiris are serious political players who can gram and Project on Manag - —Martin Feldstein , “ObamaCare’s Crippling thwart the agendas of the Indian and Pakistani ing the Atom, received the Deficits,” Wall Street Journal (September 7, governments.” 2009 Kenneth N. Waltz Dis - 2009) —Paul Staniland , “Kashmir in the AfPak sertation Award for the best dissertation in equation,” Foreign Policy (August 18, 2009) the field of security studies from the Ameri - “THE BOTTOM LINE FOR AMERICAN can Political Science Association’s Interna - POLICY is that the menu of feasible options “GENERAL PETRAEUS WILL FIND IT tional Security and Arms Control section. has shrunk. Every option available at this point DIFFICULT to repeat the apparent success of His dissertation was titled “Big Sticks and requires living with an Iran that knows how to the surge in Iraq. There are no mass political Contested Carrots: Explaining International enrich uranium. Continued denial of this parties and the Kabul government lacks the Security Institutions.” truth is self-delusion. The central policy ques - base, strength or legitimacy of the Baghdad Donald Kendall, a member tion becomes: What combination of arrange - government.” of the Belfer Center Interna - ments, inside and outside Iran, has the best —Rory Stewart , “Afghanistan: A War We tional Council and former chance of persuading it to stop short of a Cannot Win,” London Telegraph (July 10, chairman and CEO of Pep - nuclear bomb?” 2009) siCo, sponsored the Open —Graham Allison , “A New Red Line for World Program’s anniversary Iran,” Washington Post (June 1, 2009) “THE SHI’I-SUNNI DIVISION IS REAL, gala on September 29, 2009. The gala was and it will continue to play out in Iraqi poli - held at the Library of Congress’ historic “AT HOME, THE PRESIDENT’S CON - tics. Already there are warning signs, including Thomas Jefferson Building and hosted an SERVATIVE CRITICS charge that his the dominance of Shia in the security appara - international cadre of policy makers, engagement policy has been naive, arguing the tus (notably the Ministry of Interior) and the activists, politicos, foreign and U.S. ambas - United States should return to a more con - lack of progress in integrating the Shi’i-Sunni- sadors, and cultural luminaries. frontational strategy based on military force. dominated Awakening Council members in John P. Holdren , on leave They could not be more mistaken.” the security forces.” from the Belfer Center’s —Nicholas Burns , “Obama’s Opportunity in —Monica Duffy Toft , “A Risky Prospect for board of directors to serve as Iran,” Boston Globe (October 1, 2009) Iraq,” Foreign Policy (June 30, 2009) assistant to the president for science and technology and “FOR THE LAST EIGHT YEARS, U.S. tax - “ENCOURAGING THIS MOVEMENT director of the Office of Sci - payers’ money has funded hardly any bona fide TOWARD ISSUES-BASED POLITICS is ence and Technology Policy, was inducted counterterrorism successes, but quite a bit of arguably the most important component of a into the Royal Society on July 10, 2009. In corruption in the Pakistani Army and intelli - strategy to help Iraqis solve their most announcing his selection, the Royal Society gence services. . . . Despite the U.S. goal of intractable problems. Too often, differences hailed Holdren as “pre-eminent in the encouraging democratization, assistance to among Iraqis are portrayed as feuds between fields of science and technology policy,” Pakistan has actually weakened the country’s primordial rivals, grounded in irrational and adding that “his contributions to our civilian government.” emotional stances.” understanding of energy technology and the population-resource-environment nexus —Azeem Ibrahim , “How America Is Funding —Meghan O’Sullivan , “Issues Before Identity have justifiably received wide acclaim.” Corruption in Pakistan,” Foreign Policy in Iraq,” Washington Post (July 21, 2009) (August 13, 2009)

12 M• SAcience,KTechEnologRy, andS Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict Laura Holgate , former staff assistant to the International “THE CONTINUING HEADACHE that “[T]HE FACT THAT NO ORGANIZED Security Program, was named this Iraqi prime minister gave to President GROUP has an extensive network in the Senior Director for Weapons Bush may indeed carry over into this adminis - country is no longer a guarantee that radical - of Mass Destruction Terror - tration, despite Maliki’s non-endorsing ization cannot reach America’s shores, as the ism and Threat Reduction on ‘endorsement’ of Obama during the U.S. presi - Internet has replaced the need to have opera - the National Security Council. Holgate will dential campaign. Nevertheless, given the tives physically spreading the propaganda on work with Gary Samore , former research drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq, having a the ground.” fellow and current coordinator for Arms strong man in Baghdad—whatever his ethnic —Lorenzo Vidino , “Keeping a Lid on Home - Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction, or confessional background—is not the worst grown Terror,” Boston Globe (October 5, 2009) Proliferation, and Terrorism, on the of all outcomes.” National Security Council. “IF WE ARE CAPABLE AS A NATION OF —Eric Rosenbach and Aki Peritz , “What Daniel Ponemon , former LEARNING FROM HISTORY, we should Maliki’s Power Means for US,” research fellow with the Boston Globe also take this opportunity to decide that covert (July 24, 2009) International Security Pro - operations should be done rarely, and then gram and current deputy sec - “HOW CAN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES only by a special component of the military retary of energy, held the first PARTICIPATE in an international effort to and perhaps by a small, separate, civilian meeting of the U.S.-Russian reduce emissions without incurring costs that agency under the joint supervision of a group Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Security Work - derail their economic development? Their of experienced administration and bi-partisan ing Group in September. The meeting was emissions targets could start at business-as- Congressional overseers.” co-chaired by Sergei Kiriyenko , director usual levels, becoming more stringent over —Richard A. Clarke , “Targeting Terrorists,” general of Russia’s Rosatom State Atomic time as countries become wealthier.” Wall Street Journal (July 18, 2009) Energy Corporation. The group was estab - lished under the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presi - —Robert Stavins and Sheila M. Olmstead , “THIS SITUATION IS A TRAGEDY in the dential Commission during the July 2009 “The Essential Pillars of a New Climate Pact,” making between peoples who have known Presidential Summit. Boston Globe (September 20, 2009) more than their share. Unless Obama sum - Samantha Power, former “A CARBON TAX SHIFT IS ONE OF mons the will and skill to break the logjam, a executive director of the Belfer THOSE RARE IDEAS that can take a politi - two-state solution will become impossible and Center Human Rights Initia - cal liability and turn it into a political asset—it those who yearn for peace will be even worse tive and current senior direc - allows Congress to vote for a tax cut and a tax off than before.” tor for Multilateral Affairs and increase while putting into place the financial —Stephen Walt , “Settling for Failure in the Human Rights on the incentives we need to transition to a noncar - Middle East,” Washington Post (September 20, National Security Council, was appointed by bon future.” 2009) President Obama to coordinate the efforts of the many parts of the U.S. government on —Elaine Kamarck , “ Gore’s Carbon Tax “THE SIMPLE TRUTH, that if Israel were to Iraqi refugees and internally displaced per - Makes Good Sense ,” Politico (September 23, offer the Palestinians 100% of their demands, sons, including the Department of State, U.S. 2009) there would be no one capable of both accept - Agency for International Development, ing and delivering on this, was lost to interna - Department of Homeland Security, and “AFRICA COULD BENEFIT FROM THIS tional opinion. Netanyahu played tough, failed Department of Defense. NEW INFRASTRUCTURE if it can focus on and delivered a severe blow to Israel’s interna - four critical areas: lowering the cost of access Moshik Temkin , a Belfer tional standing.” to bandwidth; expanding training opportuni - Center faculty affiliate, was ties in multimedia technology; stimulating —Chuck Freilich , “Hoping the Next 100 on the 2009 Cundill Interna - enterprise development and liberalizing the Days Go Better,” Jerusalem Post (July 12, 2009) tional Prize in History’s longlist of nominated books market for devices to access the net.” “GIVEN THEIR DOMESTIC FRAGMEN - for The Sacco-Vanzetti Affair: —Calestous Juma , “Riding the Digital TATION, the Palestinians are limited in what America on Trial . The prize is awarded to an Express,” BBC (September 15, 2009) they can provide Israel in exchange for the con - author who has published a book deter - cessions it is being asked to make. By contrast, mined to have a profound literary, social, “THE REASON FOR THE SILENCE on the the promise of peace with the Arab world is a and academic impact on the subject. The forums is that al Qaeda couldn’t care less about more enticing context, justifying Israeli down - ten books on the longlist were chosen from the current U.S. debate about torture. The payments such as in settlement construction.” more than 130 entries. questions of who signed which memos when, —Shai Feldman and Gilead Sher , “The whether Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was water - Shirley Williams, a member Grand Bargain that is the Mideast’s Best of the Belfer Center’s board boarded 80 or 180 times, and whether a milli - Hope,” Financial Times (August 19, 2009) of directors, was appointed as pede was inserted into Abu Zubaydah’s the United Kingdom’s repre - confinement box are only interesting for those “ABBAS’ WEAKNESS, LIKE ARAFAT’S sentative to the International who did not expect the United States to BEFORE HIM in the latter’s last decade of Commission on Nuclear behave this way.” life, has been an infatuation with two elements Non-proliferation and Disarmament —Thomas Hegghammer , “Irreparable Dam - that are addictive but non-productive: the (ICNND). The ICNND is a joint initiative age,” Foreign Policy (May 4, 2009) trappings of power, privilege and incumbency, by the Australian and Japanese Govern - and a direct line to the U.S. president.” ments aimed at reinvigorating international (To read opeds in full, see Publications on the —Rami Khouri , “The Emptiness of the Pales - efforts on nuclear non-proliferation and dis - Belfer Center website: www.belfercenter.org ) tinian Presidency,” Agence Global (October 7, armament. It is co-chaired by the former —Compiled by Beth Maclin 2009) foreign secretaries of Australia and Japan and made up of 15 commissioners. 13 “. . . This is a fresh look at an enduring controversy and a reminder that modern HOT OFF ambivalence about American power has deep roots.” —ALA Booklist

Primary Politics: How Presidential Candidates THE PRESSES Have Shaped the Modern Nominating System By Elaine C. Kamarck; Brookings Institution Press Climbing the Bookshelves: The Autobiography of (2009) Shirley Williams Primary Politics Elaine By Shirley Williams; Virago Press Kamarck (September 2009)

“. . . [C]hallenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations. . . .”

Shirley Williams “. . . Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplo - macy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them.” —Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University

The Sacco-Vanzetti Affair: America on Trial By Moshik Temkin; Yale University Press (April 2009) Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World Climb - By Vali Nasr; Free Press (September 2009) ing the Bookshelves Vali Nasr

“. . . [A] straight narrative, few secrets, no bitching but clear-eyed political analysis.”

“What you get is what you might expect— a straight narrative, few secrets, no bitch - ing but clear-eyed political analysis.” —The Guardian

Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars By Monica Duffy Toft; Princeton University Press (Forthcoming January 2010) Moshik Temkin Securing the Peace

Monica Duffy Toft

“. . . [A] reminder that modern must ambivalence about American power has deep roots.” Susan Lynch

14 C A S BELFER IN BRIEF U

oordinated by the Belfer Center’s Envi - Eric Rosenbach , the Center’s executive direc - Cronment and Natural Resources Pro - tor for research, was honored by Harvard gram, Harvard Kennedy School’s 2009 Roy Kennedy School students in May as Best HKS Family Award for Environmental Partnership Advisor for 2008–09. was presented in November to Mexico City Belfer Center Senior Fellow Ben Heineman Metrobus, a system that greatly reduces air was appointed to the presidential advisory pollution. committee at Central European University (Budapest) to evaluate the mission of the busi - ness school and its relation to schools of law and public policy. Congratulations to newly engaged Katie Bartel (International Security ) and to Simone O’Hanlon (Belfer core ) and Greg Durham (Agricultural Innovation in Africa project ) on their recent marriages. Best wishes to all. The Belfer Center has expanded with several Safety Measures: Calestous Juma , director of Russian Relations: Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin newborns. Congratulations to the proud par - the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Ryan (right) was warmly welcomed by Belfer ents and welcome to: Ella Eiran (daughter of Globalization project, with General William E. Center faculty, fellows, and staff upon his return Ehud Eiran and his wife Margot), Haldis Ward , commander of U.S. Africa Command, in in September as a senior fellow focusing on U.S.- Dagmar Hegghammer (daughter of Thomas Stuttgart, Germany. Juma spoke in June on Russian relations around nuclear issues. Ryan is Hegghammer and Malfrid Braut-Heggham - “Security and Development in a Turbulent World; pictured here with Rolf Mowatt-Larssen , mer), Atticus Harold Oliver (son of Hongyan Safeguarding Africa’s Prosperity,” the inaugural Center senior fellow, discussing their recent trip Oliver and her husband Will), and Ella Eileen presentation of the Command’s speaker to Russia. program. Kane (daughter of Paul and Chen Zak Kane).

International Security

Vol. 34 No. 2 FALL 2009 [email protected]

“Bad Debts: Assessing China’s Financial Influ - “China’s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, “Transformative Choices: Leaders and the ence in Great Power Politics” and the U.S. Response” Origins of Intervention Strategy” Daniel W. Drezner Robert S. Ross Elizabeth N. Saunders

“Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading” “What’s in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Michael C. Horowitz Civil War?” Nicholas Sambanis and Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl

“[T]he United States should begin to develop policies that will help to man - age U.S.-China naval competition . . .” —Robert S. Ross

—Compiled by International Security staff

15 Nonprofit Org. U. S. Postage PAID The Robert and Renée Belfer Center Nashua, NH for Science and International Affairs Permit No. 375 Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Newsletter Editor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director, Communications, [email protected] Sasha Talcott, Director, Communications [email protected] Beth Maclin, Communications Assistant [email protected] The Communications Office was assisted in production of Belfer Center Mission: To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge this newsletter by Katie Bartel, Chip Unruh, Traci Farrell, Julissa Jansen, Katie Poole, and Susan Lynch. about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect. Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. R E T N

E Tribute to Ernest May—Extraordinary C R E F

L by Sharon Wilke

E Historian, Colleague, Teacher, Friend B

Among the reflections shared during the September seminar, a Harvard memorial ser - His influence on me was vice, and on the Belfer Center website are incalculable. those that follow. Influential Insight: Ernest May with Ashton —Vivek Viswanathan Carter at a Belfer Center seminar.

Ernest May was an intellectual “His influence on me was incalculable. . . . o other historian of recent memory has model, someone with “N so successfully bridged the chasm [M]ore than his renown as a historian or his between history and public policy,” Belfer Cen - extraordinary judgment intimate knowledge of national security policy, ter Director Graham Allison said at a seminar and patience. I was fascinated by the quality of his mind: the precision of his words, the pointed nature of in September to honor and recognize the —Joseph S. Nye impact of long-time colleague and friend the questions that he posed, and the bracing Ernest May . During the discussion, “Reflec - clarity of his thought.” tions on Ernest May: A Rare Bridge Between “Not only was Ernie a really important histo - (Vivek Viswanathan , 2009 Harvard graduate History and Policy ,” colleagues, students, rian . . . he was an historian who knew how to and recent student of May’s) friends, and family members gathered to dis - engage successfully in the public sphere.” “He was first and foremost a teacher, and if he cuss May’s tremendous influence on them as (Niall Ferguson , Harvard’s Laurence A. Tisch was asked by somebody, ‘What do you do?’ he individuals and on society. Professor of History; Member, Belfer would say, ‘I’m a teacher.’” A member of the Belfer Center’s board of Center Board of Directors) (Susan B. Wood , Ernest May’s wife) directors until his death in June 2009, May “May was an intellectual model, someone with was a world-renowned historian of interna - For these and other reflections and video clips, extraordinary judgment and patience. He tional relations and foreign policy. A member see: http://belfercenter.org/ernestmay would look carefully and patiently at all of the of the Harvard faculty for more than 50 years, reflections . complexities of a problem, and when he came he served Harvard in many roles, including as

to a conclusion, it was compelling.” R E dean of Harvard College, director of Harvard T

(Joseph S. Nye , Harvard University N E

Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, and C

Distinguished Service Professor; R chair of Harvard’s History Department. May E F

Member, Belfer Center Board of Directors) L E was the author of numerous books, including B Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Deci - “Ernest was someone who spoke softly, yet car - sion-Makers (Free Press, 1986), written with ried a big mind. He would invariably let others Richard Neustadt , and The Kennedy Tapes: do most of the talking while he ended up Inside the White House During the Cuban Mis - doing most of the thinking. . . . ‘What would sile Crisis , co-authored by Philip Zelikow . Ernie do?’ is a question I continue to ask From 2003 to 2004, he was senior advisor to myself.” Sharing Moments: Philip Zelikow (left) the 9/11 Commission and instrumental in the (Philip Zelikow , University of Virginia’s remembers a light moment with Ernest May as May’s son John listens. writing of the 9/11 Commission report. White Burkett Miller Professor of History) 16
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