HARVARD UNIVERSITY ROBERT AND RENÉE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2000-2001 ANNUAL REPORT 2 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2000-2001 Annual Report Director’s Foreword 5 Overview From the Executive Director 7 Environment and Natural Resources Program TABLE 8 OF Harvard Information Infrastructure Project 52 CONTENTS International Security Program 71 Science, Technology and Public Policy Program 109 Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project 155 WPF Program on Intrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict Resolution 177 Events 188 Publications 219 Biographies 241 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 3 2000-2001 Annual Report 4 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2000-2001 Annual Report Director’s Foreword —————————————♦ For the hub of the John F. Kennedy School’s research, teaching, and training in international security affairs, environmental and resource issues, conflict prevention and resolution, and science and technology policy, the first academic year of the new century has been bracing. According to our mission statement, The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs strives to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, and international affairs intersect. BCSIA’s leadership begins with the recognition of science and technology as driving forces transforming threats and opportunities in international affairs. The Center integrates insights of social scientists, technologists, and practitioners with experience in government, diplomacy, the military, and business to address critical issues. BCSIA involvement in both the Republican and Democratic campaigns. BCSIA was privileged to have senior advisors in both camps in one of the most unforgettable American elections in recent memory. Four of our BCSIA colleagues were called immediately into service in the Bush Administration. Robert Zoellick was tapped as the U.S. Trade Representative. Bob Blackwill was enlisted as America’s ambassador to India. Jendayi Frazer and Rich Falkenrath accepted posts on the National Security Council staff. Evan Feigenbaum was later chosen for the Policy Planning staff at the Department of State. Center establishes new International Council chaired by James Schlesinger. To strengthen our links to the world of policy relevant knowledge, BCSIA has now created an International Council of distinguished representatives from the US and abroad. Among those now actively contributing to BCSIA’s research agenda are former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, Minos Zombanakis, Don Kendall, Frank Stanton, H.E. Sheikh Mohammed Abalkhail, and a number of distinguished world citizens. The Center is clearly benefiting from their insights and suggestions, and we hope by sharing our current work with this group we can provide good value for both them and our core research academics. Continued leadership in policy-relevant academic research. As always, we take special pride in the people who made BCSIA the premier policy-relevant research institution in America’s finest university. John Holdren continued to garner honors with the Heinz Award for Public Policy recognition, while Lewis Branscomb received the prestigious National Science Board Vannevar Bush Award. The seventy doctoral and post-doctoral fellows in residence continue establishing their individual marks of excellence in each of our five research programs. Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 5 2000-2001 Annual Report Service to the wider university community and beyond. BCSIA continues to be a leader in support of conferences, prominent guest speakers, and university-wide activities. During the past year high-level conferences were hosted by BCSIA on European Security with representatives of a dozen major European nations, on Caspian Basin security issues with leaders from that region, and on ballistic missile defense with leaders of government, industry and academia. Distinguished speakers at the KSG Forum sponsored by BCSIA included Robert McNamara, SEN John Glenn, SEN Chuck Hagel, and George Soros. For the university-wide Harvard Colloquium on International Affairs BCSIA brought in security experts from China and Russia. Outreach through publications. During the academic year, members of BCSIA wrote, edited, or contributed chapters to more than 40 published books. They generated more than 30 discussion papers and contributed hundreds of articles to newspapers and journals, as well as continued the successful publication of the highly regarded International Security. A full listing of the publications from the Center can be found in the Publications section of this report. This annual report is rich in detail regarding the exceptional work done collectively and individually by the 150 scholars at work in BCSIA. I encourage you to read the report in detail for a comprehensive assessment of the past year. For the present and the future of BCSIA I invite you, as always, to frequently log on to our web page at www.ksg,harvard.edu/bcsia. We are eager to hear from you about ideas for strengthening our programs and our support to the policy community. - Graham T. Allison Cambridge, Massachusetts 6 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2000-2001 Annual Report Overview ———————————————————♦ from the Executive Director The academic year of 2000-2001 was unique in the range of policy issues tied to an American election and a world in transition. BCSIA was unique in its effort to deal with these issues through solid, wide-ranging, policy oriented research that contributed much to inform our people and our leaders. Bill Clark concluded his exceptional five-year Global Environmental Assessment with a string of well-received publications capturing the contributions of more than 30 doctoral and post-doctoral fellows involved in his project. With the work of other colleagues in the Environmental and Natural Resources Program, this resulted in a series of specific and achievable recommendations for limiting carbon emissions in the developing economies of Russia, China, and India. The Program for Intrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict Resolution continued to deal with the special challenges of the spread of “small wars” with huge consequences. More than 7 million people in dozens of states from Kosovo to Congo lost their lives to these conflicts in the 1990’s and the search for mechanisms to control this violence has become a centerpiece of international security. Gaining new prominence is the challenge of defining and dealing with “failed states” which have the most serious implications for all other nations. Our Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project continued to both monitor the evolution of democracy in the former Soviet Union and to seek to make positive contributions through local programs that build political parties and the other institutions necessary for the sustainment of democracies. As with every change of administration in American politics, BCSIA viewed this transition during the past year as an opportunity to once again review our policies in place and to think outside the box on new opportunities that are emerging where our research and scholarship can contribute in specific ways to the development of national policy. BCSIA accepted the challenges of the past year to assemble experts from around the world on issues as far-ranging as the new security challenges facing Europe, to halting the sale and distribution of small arms in the developing world, and the energy opportunities in the Caspian basin. Each session was focused back to the needs of the policy community on our highest priority needs. - John Reppert Cambridge, Massachusetts Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 7 2000-2001 Annual Report Environment and ———————————————♦ Natural Resources Program MEMBERS FACULTY Robert Stavins, Faculty Chair, ENRP; Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government Henry Lee, Jaidah Family Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program; Lecturer in Public Policy William Clark, Harvey Brooks Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development; Director, Global Environmental Assessment Project (GEA) and Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability (SUST) Cary Coglianese, Associate Professor of Public Policy William Hogan, Lucius N. Littauer Professor of International Political Economy John Holdren, Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy; Program Director and Faculty Chair, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program Sheila Jasanoff, Professor of Science and Public Policy Joseph Kalt, Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy Theodore Panayotou, Fellow, Harvard Institute for International Development Edward Parson, Associate Professor of Public Policy Philip Sharp, Lecturer in Public Policy STEERING COMMITTEE Carter Bales, Director and Senior Partner, McKinsey and Company Stanley Charren, former Chairman, Kennetech, Inc. Charles Curtis, Partner, Hogan & Hartson Mitchell Dong, President, Chronos Asset Management Mary Gade, Attorney, Sonnenschein, Nath & Rosenthal and former Chair, Illinois EPA William Haney, ENRP Senior Fellow, BCSIA, and former Chair, Molten Metal Teresa Heinz, Chair, Heinz Family Endowments Harold Hestnes, Senior Partner, Hale and