Can We Stop Iran’s Nuclear Bomb? Winter 2009 –10 www.belfercenter.org Analyzing the War in Afghanistan: Obama’s Fork in the Road R E T s President Barack Obama continues to N E C weigh the impacts of American presence R A E The most important outcome F in Afghanistan, the Belfer Center’s Graham L E Allison , Meghan O’Sullivan , and Rory Stew - is a credible expression of B art offer their comments on the situation at long-term commitment. this fork in the road. —Meghan O’Sullivan Focus on the goal: “Like most presidents at war, President to disrupt, dismantle, Obama confronts a bad set of strategic options and has the unenviable challenge of choosing and defeat Al Qaeda. Heavy Duty: General David Petraeus (center) the least worst. In doing so, the administration discusses military challenges facing the U.S. at a —Graham Allison should remember that the greatest U.S. strate - meeting with Belfer Center and other Harvard gic interests are in Pakistan. Yet, perhaps Kennedy School experts in June. The Belfer counter-intuitively, this reality underscores the Center’s Meghan O’Sullivan took part in the Graham Allison (Director, Belfer Center for importance of reinforcing current U.S. efforts meeting along with David Gergen , director of Science and International Affairs) in Afghanistan. Closer cooperation with Pak - the HKS Center for Public Leadership. “The goals of defeating the Taliban, elimi - istan is hampered most by Pakistan’s belief that nating the narco-economy, and promoting a the United States is a fickle and easily discour - modicum of modern statehood in Afghanistan & Pakistan project; Member, Belfer Center aged partner. Therefore, the most important are worthy and desirable. But they are not Board of Directors) outcome of this strategic review is a credible essential to achieving what the President “The best Afghan policy would be to expression of long-term commitment. Absent rightly calls ‘our essential strategic problem and reduce the number of foreign troops. In that this, the United States cannot expect Pakistanis rationale’ for being in Afghanistan: ‘To dis - case, two objectives would remain for the or Afghans—the people or their govern - rupt, dismantle, and defeat Al Qaeda in Pak - international community: development and ments—to make hard choices and stand istan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their counter-terrorism. Neither would amount to against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.” return to either country in the future.’ The building an Afghan state. If the West believed central challenge for President Obama in the it essential to exclude Al Qaeda from way ahead will be to sustain focus on what is Reduce the number Afghanistan, they could do it with special required to deliver victory on his precisely- of foreign troops. forces. At the same time, providing generous stated goal—and to reject what is not.” development assistance would not only keep —Rory Stewart consent for the counter-terrorism operations, Meghan O’Sullivan (Jeane Kirkpatrick but is also desirable as an end in itself. The Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Rory Stewart (Director, Carr Center for only thing worse than troop increases would Kennedy School; Member, Belfer Center Human Rights Policy; Founder, Carr Center’s be total withdrawal. That would be disastrous Board of Directors) State Building & Human Rights: Afghanistan for us and all Afghans.” Belfer Colleagues Impact Policy in D.C. T S A limate and energy policy, economic John P. Holdren (On leave from Belfer Cen - C P Creforms, and defense planning—these ter faculty and Board of Directors) are among the plethora of issues Belfer Center “John Holdren, the president’s top science adviser, colleagues are currently tackling in Washing - is playing a key role in shaping the Obama ton, D.C. Following is a sampling of work administration’s strategy to combat global warm - underway by John P. Holdren , Lawrence ing.” (“ Obama’s Science Adviser Urges Leader - Summers , and Michèle Flournoy . For more ship on Climate,” Yale Environment 360 , Aug. about Belfer colleagues in Washington, see 14, 2009) http://belfercenter.org/governmentappointees . Holdren is working on the passage of a U.S. Sound Suggestions: John P. Holdren (center left), director of the White House Office of Science and energy bill and preparing for December’s inter - Technology Policy, makes a point to President Barack Obama (center right) at the first meeting of national climate meeting in Copenhagen. He the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) in August. Holdren co-chairs the council. continued on page 2 FROMTHE DIRECTOR R E T N E C R E F L E B The conduct of foreign policy is not primarily the conduct of relations with other governments. It’s resident Obama is facing two of the most primarily a matter of Pimportant foreign policy decisions of his domestic leadership . presidency: whether to Americanize the Reflections and Respect: Susan Wood , widow —Ernest May of Ernest May , at a Belfer Center seminar in his Afghanistan war and how to stop Iran from honor in September. May’s daughters Rachel building a nuclear weapon. In thinking about and Donna are also pictured. these issues—as with many others lately—I 2. “When we think about doing something in find myself reflecting on my friend Ernest the world, we should always very closely May , Charles Warren Professor of History and inspect the premises we are operating on— As we think about the fateful choice Presi - a longtime member of the Belfer Center Board always look at them very carefully. McNa - dent Obama faces in Afghanistan and Iran, of Directors, who passed away in the spring. mara makes the point that the premises each of those lessons deserve careful contem - Ernie had impeccable judgment about ques - underlining the Vietnam War were plation. Would that we had the benefit of tions like these—not only intellectual acumen, accepted; they were not analyzed.” Ernie answering his own questions. but also a concern about the real world. As my 3. “The conduct of foreign policy is not pri - On Afghanistan, we should take a cue colleague Joe Nye has said, he was an extraor - marily the conduct of relations with other from Ernie and revisit the question of whether dinary model for what the Harvard Kennedy governments. It’s primarily a matter of Afghanistan is, truly, a “war of necessity.” The School is all about. domestic leadership—this seems to me a decision on that will fundamentally shape tremendously important lesson.” President Obama’s legacy. On the topics of Afghanistan and Iran, I now find myself Colleagues Impact Policy in D.C. (continued from page 1) asking WWED—“What Would Ernie Do?” told the National Journal in an interview on and exploitative overdraft fees. Now is an September 24, that: “It would be a benefit if appropriate moment for financial institutions . we could get a bill before Copenhagen because . to consider their duty by recognizing that Those of us who had the good fortune to the world does look to the United States to the status quo is not acceptable.” know Ernie share similar stories about his finally become a global leader on this issue. analysis and judgment. Prior to his passing, I We’re already in the process of becoming a Michèle Flournoy (Former r esearch fellow, had more or less assumed there was an endless global leader with the huge investments in the Belfer Center International Security Program) fountain there—I kept calling it up and get - Recovery Act and clean energy. But we need a Under Secretary of ting a good answer. On the topics of bill. And it’s not a prerequisite for success in Defense for Policy Afghanistan and Iran, I now find myself asking Copenhagen but certainly would help.” WWED—“What Would Ernie Do?” Flournoy testified Lawrence Summers To answer that question, I took a look back before the House (On leave from Belfer at Ernie’s reflections on the Vietnam War, Armed Services Com - Center faculty and which he articulated in a 1995 Forum with mittee in October on Board of Directors) Robert McNamara , Thomas Vallely , Hue- the issue of replacing Tam Ho Tai , and myself. At that event, Ernie “No one is indispensable. former President Bush’s drew three lessons from McNamara’s book, But at this moment, proposed plan to place In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Viet - Larry comes very close,” 10 large ground-based nam , that, he argued, were applicable when - said David Axelrod, Mr. interceptors in silos in Poland. ever our country contemplated going to war. Obama’s top political Flournoy said the 30 ground-based inter - (See full video clip at http://belfercenter.org advisor. (“Summers, Contender, to Stay Put,” ceptor missiles to be deployed in Alaska and /publication/19595 .) Wall Street Journal , Aug. 26, 2009) California by the U.S. by the end of 2010 will address the threat that Iranian intercontinental Here they are, in Ernie’s words: A Consumer Financial Protection Agency is ballistic missiles (ICBM) pose to the U.S. 1. “When you are thinking about any foreign one of the many proposed financial reforms “The very real threat of short-range and area—any other government or organized with which Summers, director of the National medium-range ballistic missiles—that is devel - force in the world that has a different his - Economic Council, is involved. He noted in a oping faster—must be dealt with sooner,” she tory and different culture — you need to recent White House blog entry that: “Among said. “Iran’s priorities and capabilities may think about that history and culture, and the President’s proposals, the greatest opposi - change in ways that we can’t predict.