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TM December 4 2020 Issue THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION DECEMBER 4, 2020 VOLUME XVIII, ISSUE 22 p.1 p.3 p.5 p.7 Jacob Zenn Sunguta West Jacob Lees Weiss Animesh Roul BRIEFS Islamic State Fighters’ Algerian Constitutional Islamic State Hind First Claimed Attack in Amendments Create Province’s Kashmir Tanzania: Strategic Conditions for Military Campaign and Pan-Indian Calculations and Political Operations in Libya Capabilities Context ISLAMIC STATE IN GREATER SAHARA demonstrated by several major ISGS attacks in Burkina SETS SIGHTS ON BURKINA FASO Faso in recent weeks. Jacob Zenn On November 11, for example, ISGS conducted an at- tack on a military convoy in Tin-Akoff, Oudalan Province, In late 2019, Islamic State (IS)’s Sahel-based fighters un- northern Burkina Faso, killing 14 soldiers (lefaso.net, der the leadership of Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi November 12). While Oudalan straddles the borders of surged ahead of their al-Qaeda rivals in the Group for Mali and Niger, the neighboring Seno Province only Supporters of Islam and Muslims (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam borders Niger. It was in Seno Province that ISGS carried wal Muslimin—JNIM). Major attacks on soldiers in Niger out several other attacks in the same week as the and Mali and, to a lesser extent Burkina Faso, indicated Oudalan military convoy attack (Twitter/AlerteTemoin, al-Sahrawi’s group, which is commonly known as Islamic November 13). Since JNIM is also active in these areas, State in Greater Sahara (ISGS), was a force to be reck- ISGS’ new stronghold is emerging in this Niger-Mali- oned with in the Sahel. France accordingly designated Burkina Faso axis alongside, and potentially in increas- ISGS as the number one terrorist threat in the Sahel, ing competition with, JNIM. convened with Sahelian leaders to redouble counter- Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), whose Sahe- terrorism efforts against ISGS, and rolled back its previ- lian offshoot is JNIM, historically operated in this axis. In ous stated plans to reduce French troops in the Sahel the early 2010s, al-Sahrawi himself was also involved (Al-Jazeera, November 6, 2019; France24, January 15). with AQIM, including for trafficking and kidnapping op- Throughout 2020, JNIM also combated ISGS and erations. Al-Sahrawi, who reportedly married a Fulani gained the upper hand (nordsudjournal.fr, April 21). woman in order to integrate into cross-border communi- ISGS now appears to be on weaker footing than its ties in recent years, is, therefore, not unfamiliar with this JNIM archrival, but ISGS may be carving out parts of terrain (rfi.fr, March 27, 2017). Although al-Sahrawi had Burkina Faso as its main area of operation where, unlike not been heard from since Abubakar al-Baghdadi Mali and Niger, it can be stronger than JNIM. This is praised him in an April 2019 audio, IS again highlighted 1 him in a November al-Naba newsletter interview (Al- AUSTRIA AND SWITZERLAND ATTACKS REVEAL Furqan, April 29, 2019; Twitter/oded121351, November ISLAMIC STATE’S WEAKNESS IN EUROPE 14). While recounting ISGS’ rivalry with JNIM and as- pects of AQIM history, al-Sahrawi also confirmed that he Jacob Zenn remained ISGS’ leader and he was indeed alive. On November 24, a woman, whose name was not im- Meanwhile, AQIM’s leadership vacuum since French mediately released, stabbed two shoppers in the popu- forces, backed by the United States, killed Abdelmalek lar tourist city of Lugano, Switzerland, which is near the Droukdel in June has been resolved (France24, June 5). Italian border (De Telegraaf, November 24). Swiss au- AQIM’s new leader, Abu Obaida Yusuf Annabi, is a long- thorities revealed the attacker had in 2017 attempted to time Algerian jihadist with a record of focusing on the travel to Syria to join Islamic State (IS), but was caught in Sahel and Nigeria in his video speeches (see Militant Turkey before crossing the border into Syria. She initially Leadership Monitor, September 6, 2018; al-Andalus, met an IS fighter online and would have married him if March 2010). Moreover, JNIM’s own leadership remains she was able to reach Syria. intact, including the Tuareg Malian Iyad ag Ghaly and Malian Fulani Hamadou Kouffa, who is among Iyad ag The attack, therefore, highlights some well-known routes Ghaly’s deputies. of radicalization for Islamic State fighters and support- ers, including the internet, romance, and finally, travel to Even with al-Qaeda’s overall leadership in flux amid re- Syria. Moreover, the attack follows others in France and ports that Aymen al-Zawahiri is dead, AQIM and JNIM’s the United Kingdom where attackers known to authori- capable leaderships should allow them to withstand ties have conducted attacks (France24, October 17; ISGS. In fact, ISGS’ operations in Burkina Faso may indi- BBC, December 4, 2019). The hundreds of known Islam- cate an uptick in its strength in that particular border ic State supporters in Western European countries region. However, on the whole, ISGS appears to be in makes it increasingly difficult for security agencies to not strategic retreat vis-à-vis JNIM. only monitor them, but also interrupt their plots if they . act. France has begun to take the most aggressive mea- sures to monitor suspected jihadists since a Chechen Jacob Zenn is the editor of Terrorism Monitor. refugee beheaded a schoolteacher who showed his class the Charlie Hebdo cartoon mocking Prophet Muhammed (elysee.fr, November 4). What made the Lugano attack unique, however, is that virtually all Islamic State foreign fighters who have con- ducted attacks in Syria and Iraq or back in their home countries have been men. In Lugano, however, it was a woman. At the same time, the lack of sophistication of her attack and its inability to cause any deaths indicates she was likely a lone actor. This is a positive sign regard- ing Swiss measures to prevent more dangerous weapons from getting into the hands of IS supporters in the country. The fact that IS did not claim the attack fur- ther reflects the likelihood IS was not directly involved. Even if IS was involved, it would not necessarily claim or condone a woman attacker. Meanwhile, in neighboring Austria, another attack by a man of Albanian descent with Macedonian and Austrian dual nationality took place on November 2 (diepresse.- com, November 2). This attacker had also attempted to travel to IS territories in Syria, but was stopped and de- tained in Turkey in 2018 before being extradited and detained again in Austria (egm.gov.tr, November 8). 2 However, unlike the Lugano extremist, the attacker in Austria acquired a gun on the black market and used it Islamic State Fighters’ First to kill four civilians in his November 2 attack in Vienna. Claimed Attack in Tanzania: The attacker in Austria also issued a video pledging loy- alty to Islamic State, indicating his commitment to IS’ Strategic Calculations and Po- cause (dein.tube, November 3). However, it is unclear if litical Context IS knew about or directed the attack in advance. IS’ claim of the attack, for example, did not demonstrate insider knowledge of the attack. Sunguta West The trendlines following these most recent attacks in On October 15, Islamic State (IS) fighters in Mozam- Lugano and Vienna show that IS supporters remain in bique staged their first claimed attack into southern Europe, including in countries like Switzerland and Aus- Tanzania, killing at least 20 people in Kitaya, Mtwara tria that have seen significantly less jihadist violence Province. The fighters also burned down houses, de- than other countries in Western Europe over the past stroyed an armored vehicle, and stole money and mili- several years. However, attackers increasingly tend to be tary equipment. Mtwara borders Palma district in the known to authorities and are unable to launch sophisti- Mozambican Province of Cabo Delgado, which is the cated attacks with multiple cell members like the 2015 base of the group known as Ahlu al-Sunna Wal Jamaa or IS-coordinated Paris attacks. Nevertheless, the shock of al-Shabaab (“The Youth”) locally but officially as Islamic even these two attacks will likely lead more European State in Central Africa Province (ISCAP) (The Citizen, countries—especially France and Austria—to demand October 23; Club of Mozambique, October 20). stronger European border controls, more restrictive asy- lum processes, and greater powers to detain IS support- Some ISCAP members were initially followers of Kenyan ers, particularly those who have already demonstrated Islamist ideologue, the late Aboud Rogo, and resettled intent to join the group (France24, November 5). in northern Mozambique after Rogo was killed extrajudi- cially in a drive-by shooting in Mombasa in 2012. ISCAP Jacob Zenn is the editor of Terrorism Monitor. also has religious, commercial, and training ties with ji- hadist networks in Kenya, Tanzania, and elsewhere in East Africa (Club of Mozambique, June 14, 2018). The group, however, only started carrying out attacks in northern Mozambique in 2017 and has since killed an estimated 700 civilians. Like other Islamist militants in Africa, ISCAP demands that governments rule by sharia (Islamic Law) (The Africa Report, July 29). Since IS’ ‘territorial caliphate’ in Syria and Iraq began collapsing, its leadership has been keen to expand in Africa. In August 2018, IS’ former “caliph,” Abubakar al- Baghdadi, indicated plans to create a Central Africa province (wilaya) (Twitter.com/SimNasr, August 22, 2018). Less than one year later, in April 2019, IS claimed an attack in Beni, Democratic People’s Republic of Con- go (DRC), killing two soldiers and one civilian, which heralded the launch of ISCAP as a formal IS province (The East African, April 19, 2019). By that time, attacks were also intensifying in northern Mozambique, whose fighters, along with the DRC insurgents, soon became subsumed under ISCAP.
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