Northern Ontario Passenger Vehicle Travel Profile

Home , Northern Ontario, Northwestern Ontario

TRANSPORTATION

Final Report

The Preparation of a Northern Ontario Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Origin-Destination Survey Northern Ontario Passenger Vehicle Travel Profile

Submitted to Ministry of Transportation, Ontario by IBI Group October 30, 2013

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... ES.1 ES. 1 Introduction ...... ES.1 ES.1 Border Crossing Travel ...... ES.2 ES.2 Provincial Highway Travel...... ES.5 ES.4 Summary ...... ES.11

1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Study Background ...... 1 1.2 Report Purpose and Organization ...... 1 1.3 Design and Conduct of Survey ...... 2 1.4 Northern Ontario Context ...... 6 Population Distribution 6 Provincial Highway Network 7

2. Border Crossing Survey Summary – International Travel ...... 9 2.1 Overview of Border Crossing Travel ...... 9 2.2 Trip Purposes by Vehicle Registration ...... 11 2.3 Origin-Destination Flows ...... 18

3. Mail-Back Survey Summary – Provincial Highway Travel ...... 27 3.1 Overview of Provincial Highway Travel ...... 27 3.2 Trip Purposes ...... 29 3.3 Origin-Destination Flows ...... 34 Northern Ontario Gateway Flows 45 Interior Northern Ontario Flows 47

4. Summary ...... 50

OCTOBER 30, 2013 i IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Table of Contents (continued)

Appendix A: Survey Questionnaires

Appendix B: Traffic Classification Count Summaries by Survey Station

Appendix C: Detailed Travel Summaries by Survey Station and Direction

Appendix D: Detailed Origin-Destination Matrices

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Table of Contents (continued)

List of Exhibits Exhibit 1.1: Map of Passenger Vehicle Survey Locations ...... 3 Exhibit 1.2: Valid Survey Sample by Station ...... 4 Exhibit 1.3: Northern Ontario 2011 Census Population by Region ...... 6

Exhibit 2.1: Border Surveys: Summary of Travel Indicators by Crossing and Day ...... 10 Exhibit 2.2: Border Crossing Trip Purposes by Country of Vehicle Registration and Crossing, Fall 2011 ...... 13 Exhibit 2.3: Border Crossing Trip Purposes by Country of Vehicle Registration at Sault Ste. Marie, 2011 and 2012 ...... 14 Exhibit 2.4: Trip Purpose Statistics by Country of Vehicle Registration, All Border Crossings, Fall 2011 ...... 15 Exhibit 2.5: Trip Purpose Statistics by Country of Vehicle Registration, Sault Ste. Marie, Day-of-Week Comparison ...... 17 Exhibit 2.6: Summary Zone System ...... 19 Exhibit 2.7: Daily Border Crossing Flows - Fall 2011 Weekday ...... 22 Exhibit 2.8: Daily Border Crossing Flows - Fall 2011 Sunday ...... 23 Exhibit 2.9: Border Crossing Origin-Destination Matrix for All Northern Ontario International Borders – Fall 2011 Weekday ...... 24 Exhibit 2.10: Border Crossing Origin-Destination Matrix for All Northern Ontario International Borders – Fall 2011 Sunday ...... 25 Exhibit 2.11: Daily Border Crossing Flows at Sault Ste. Marie – Summer 2012 ...... 26

Exhibit 3.1: Provincial Highway Surveys: Summary of Travel Indicators ...... 28 Exhibit 3.2: Provincial Highway Trip Purposes by Location, Direction, and Survey Period ...... 30 Exhibit 3.3: Trip Length Distribution by Trip Purpose and Day of Week, Gateway Survey Locations, Fall 2011 ...... 32 Exhibit 3.4: Trip Length Distribution by Trip Purpose and Day of Week, Station 6 – Highway 17 West of Sudbury, Summer 2012 ...... 33 Exhibit 3.5: Travel Flows at Northwestern Ontario Gateway: Ontario-Manitoba Border – Fall 2011 WEEKDAY ...... 35 Exhibit 3.6: Travel Flows at Northwestern Ontario Gateway: Ontario-Manitoba Border – Fall 2011 SUNDAY ...... 36 Exhibit 3.7: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Fall 2011 WEEKDAY ...... 37 Exhibit 3.8: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Fall 2011 SUNDAY ...... 38 Exhibit 3.9: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Summer 2012 SUNDAY ...... 39 Exhibit 3.10: Travel Flows at Highway 11/17 West of Nipigon – Summer 2012 WEEKDAY ...... 40 Exhibit 3.11: Travel Flows at Highway 11/17 West of Nipigon – Summer 2012 SUNDAY ...... 41 Exhibit 3.12: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 WEEKDAY ..... 42 Exhibit 3.13: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 SATURDAY ...... 43 Exhibit 3.14: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 SUNDAY ...... 44

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IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Executive Summary 1.1 ES. 1 Introduction

This report summarizes findings from the Northern Ontario passenger vehicle surveys conducted in early fall 2011 and summer 2012 at ten locations for the Ministry of Transportation, Ontario. This is part of a larger survey program that consists of a commercial vehicle survey, a passenger vehicle survey, and traffic classification counts to allow for the expansion of the survey data. Other aspects of the study are documented separately.

The surveys were conducted at ten locations across Northern Ontario, including the four international border crossings and six provincial highway locations, shown in Exhibit ES.1.

Exhibit ES.1: Map of Passenger Vehicle Survey Locations

Border Crossing Survey Locations (2011)

Provincial Highway Survey Locations (2011)

Border Crossing Survey Locations (2012)

Provincial Highway Survey Locations (2012)

Two methodologies were used for the passenger vehicle surveys:

 Border crossing locations - driver interview surveys: Passenger vehicles crossing the border in either direction were selected randomly by police enforcement and directed to survey bays. Surveys generally took place on the property of the Canadian Border Services Agency. Driver interview surveys were possible due to reduced speeds of vehicles in the vicinity of the border crossing, and allowed vehicles of all jurisdictions to be surveyed.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.1 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

The border survey database includes a total of 8,714 survey records: 5,870 for fall 2011 and 2,844 for summer 2012.

 Provincial highway locations – licence-plate recording/mail- back surveys: The licence plates of passenger vehicles passing survey locations were recorded and processed via MTO’s address retrieval system to obtain the address of the registered vehicle owners. A survey questionnaire was mailed to the households of the vehicle owners, together with a postage-paid envelope for the survey response. With this method, surveys could only be sent to the owners of vehicles licensed in Ontario.

A total of 28,733 surveys were mailed: 11,692 in fall 2011 and 17,041 in summer 2012. The final database contains 4,151 valid fall records and 5,382 valid summer records for a total of 9,533 valid trip records.

Northern Ontario covers over 800,000 square kilometres or 87% of Ontario’s land area. The driving distance between Mattawa, near the southeastern limit of Northern Ontario, and the Ontario-Manitoba border is over 1,700 km. The study area covered by this survey is thus very large. Northern Ontario’s Census population in 2011 was 733,000 people, or about 6% of Ontario’s total population; this does not include a portion of Northern Ontario’s population in incompletely enumerated aboriginal communities. Over half of Northern Ontario residents live in the five largest urban areas, from largest to smallest: Sudbury (161,000 population), Thunder Bay (122,000), Sault Ste. Marie (75,000), North Bay (64,000) and Timmins (43,000). The two main provincial highway routes in Northern Ontario are Highways 11 and 17, which are arterial two-lane highways for much of their length except in the vicinity of larger urban centres. 1.2 ES.1 Border Crossing Travel

To provide some geographical context, three of the crossings have both US and Canadian border towns immediately adjacent to the borders:

 Rainy River (population 850) is across the border from the slightly larger town of Baudette, Minnesota (population 1,000);

 Fort Frances (population 8,000) is across the border from International Falls, Minnesota (population 6,500); and

 Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario (population 75,000) is across the border from a smaller town by the same name in Michigan (population 14,000).

The fourth crossing, Pigeon River, is about 60 km to the south of Thunder Bay via Highway 61. The closest US community south of the Pigeon River crossing is Grand Portage, about 10 km to the south along Minnesota Highway 61. The population of Grand Portage numbers in the hundreds, but the Grand Portage Casino and a border store are a significant draw for Canadian visitors.

The border crossing surveys were conducted in fall 2011 on a Sunday and a weekday. Passenger vehicle border crossing volumes totalled 9,200 on fall 2011 weekdays, and 11,140 on Sundays (21% higher). The Sault Ste. Marie crossing

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accounted for over half the total Northern Ontario passenger vehicle border crossings; therefore, this crossing was selected for supplemental surveys conducted in summer 2012 on a Saturday and a Sunday.

Exhibit ES.2 summarizes total trips by country of vehicle registration, border crossing, survey period, and trip purpose for fall 2011; very distinct differences can be seen in the types of trips across the Northern Ontario borders by Canadian vs. American residents.

The most significant trip types for Canadians were shopping and casino visits, as well as other recreation/entertainment purposes. About 3,500 Canadian- registered vehicles crossed the Northern Ontario in fall 2011 for shopping purposes, corresponding to 38% of total weekday trips and 31% of Sunday trips. Two-thirds of respondents said they made the trip at least weekly. Travel to US casinos near the Northern Ontario border is also among the most common type of trip for Canadians near the Pigeon River and Sault Ste. Marie borders. About 1,000 weekday trips and 1,500 Sunday trips related to visiting these casinos. About 60% of those who go on weekdays make the trip at least weekly, while 50% of those who go on Sundays go at least weekly.

Recreation/entertainment cross-border trips by Canadian-registered vehicles total about 500 weekday trips and 1,700 Sunday trips, including restaurants, theatres, sports events, golfing and tourist attractions in the US border towns and surrounding area.

Cross-border fishing trips are almost exclusively made by US-registered vehicles, numbering roughly 300 to 500 vehicles daily in the fall. In comparison, cross-border hunting trips are very rare.

Other vacation trips across the Northern Ontario borders number in hundreds of vehicles daily in the fall – in comparable volumes by Canadian vs. American- registered vehicles.

At Sault Ste. Marie, where fall and summer Sunday results could be compared, there was little relative difference in the total volume of Canadian-registered vehicles crossing between seasons. However, there was a two-thirds increase in US-registered vehicles between a fall Sunday (1,900) and summer Sunday (3,100), reflecting the high proportion of cross-border travel by Americans comprising vacation travel, which fluctuates more by season.

Exhibit ES.3 illustrates the inbound (to Canada) and outbound (to US) passenger-vehicle border-crossing flows for a fall 2011 Sunday, for all four Northern Ontario border crossings. The bulk of border crossing travel is to/from locations very close to the border. The Northwestern Ontario international border crossings typically are used for travel to/from Northwestern Ontario only, given their location on the broader highway network and the geographic barrier of Lake Superior. Compared to the other Northwestern Ontario border crossings, the Sault Ste. Marie crossing has larger volumes of trips with origins and destinations at longer distances from the border on the Canadian side.

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Exhibit ES.2 Border Crossing Trip Purposes by Country of Vehicle Registration and Crossing, Fall 2011

Daily Two-Way Passenger Vehicle Volume

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 CANADIAN-REGISTERED VEHICLES Rainy River: Weekday

Sunday

Fort Frances: Weekday Shopping

Sunday Shopping

Pigeon River: Weekday Casino

Sunday Casino

Sault Ste Marie: Weekday Shopping Casino

Sunday Shopping Casino

Total Weekday Shopping Casino Recreation/ Total Sunday Visit friends Shopping Casino entertainment

UNITED STATES - REGISTERED VEHICLES Legend: School Rainy River: Weekday Work Sunday Business Medical Visit friends/relatives Fort Frances: Weekday Religious/civic activity Sunday Shopping Mail/post office Fuel Pigeon River: Weekday Hunting Sunday Fishing Golf Casino Sault Ste Marie: Weekday Sports event Sunday Restaurant Theatre/show Recreation/entertainment (other) Total Weekday Fish Tourist attraction Total Sunday Fish Vacation Other/unknow n

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Exhibit ES.3: Daily Border Crossing Flows - Fall 2011 Sunday

1.3 ES.2 Provincial Highway Travel

Exhibit ES.4 provides a number of travel summary statistics at the provincial highway survey locations, while Exhibit ES.5 summarizes trips by trip purpose, survey season, day and direction.

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Exhibit ES.4 Provincial Highway Surveys: Summary of Travel Indicators

Average Trips by Trip Purpose Trip Pass. Trip Re- Average Frequency: Day of Vehicle % ON Distance creation/ People/ Monthly or Survey Location Week Traffic Vehicles (km)1 Vacation % Work % Medical % Vehicle More FALL 2011 Gateway Locations 1 Highway 17 at Ontario- Weekday 2,590 46% 544 263 22% 251 16% 325 27% 1.85 37% 2 Manitoba border Sunday 4,700 25% 460 208 18% 269 11% 82 7% 1.94 47% 2 Highway 69 North of Parry Weekday 4,602 93% 322 1,404 31% 1,354 26% 800 17% 1.71 41% Sound Sunday 8,512 93% 328 4,364 51% 698 6% 259 3% 2.06 38% 3 Highway 11 South of Weekday 8,184 97% 155 1,318 16% 4,017 39% 893 11% 1.58 69% North Bay Sunday 8,312 94% 195 2,874 35% 1,469 9% 255 3% 2.01 57% 4 Highway 17 West of Weekday 3,114 89% 278 621 20% 1,324 35% 287 9% 1.68 53% Mattawa Sunday 3,603 87% 351 1,266 35% 404 7% 111 3% 2.02 40% Total Gateway Locations3 Weekday 18,490 88% 211 5,505 32% 476 2% 97 1% 1.54 59% 80% Sunday 25,127 263 5,065 23% 1,275 2% 204 1% 1.93 49% SUMMER 2012 Gateway Locations 2A Highway 69 N. of Parry Sunday 8,950 95% 370 5,505 62% 476 4% 97 1% 2.41 25% Sound 3 Highway 11 South of Sunday 9,872 97% 245 5,065 51% 1,275 5% 204 2% 2.16 40% North Bay Interior Locations 5 Highway 11 & 17 West of Weekday 4,090 83% 522 1,192 29% 1,194 24% 711 17% 1.84 56% Nipigon Sunday 3,566 82% 446 1,408 39% 841 12% 229 6% 2.09 53% 6 Highway 17 West of Weekday 9,924 95% 208 3,242 33% 3,686 29% 931 9% 1.78 61% Sudbury Saturday 9,781 97% 312 6,159 63% 1,422 6% 294 3% 2.32 41% Sunday 11,000 90% 243 5,315 48% 1,500 6% 283 3% 2.21 52% Notes: 1 Straight-line distance from trip origin to survey station plus straight-line distance from survey station to destination 2 At this location the survey data were expanded to the sum of Ontario-registered vehicles only: 1,191 weekday vehicles and 1,155 Sunday vehicles. 3 This is the direct sum of data at the individual survey stations, which may result in some double-counting of long-distance trips that pass more than one survey station on their route; due to the large distances between survey locations and the travel patterns particular to each survey station, this double-counting is very low. Expanded data totals sum to 17,091 on weekdays and 21,582 on Sundays due to Station 1 expansion to Ontario-registered vehicles only.

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Exhibit ES.5: Provincial Highway Trip Purposes by Location, Direction, and Survey Period

Daily One-Way Passenger Vehicle Volume 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Station 1 Highway 17 at Ontario-Manitoba Boundary Legend: Fall WEEKDAY-Eastbound Expanded to Ontario-registered vehicles only School -Westbound Work/Business Medic al Fall SUNDAY-Eastbound Expanded to Ontario-registered vehicles only -Westbound Personal Business/Social Shopping Station 2 Highway 69 North of Parry Sound Hunting (Fall 2011) Fall WEEKDAY-Northbound Fishing (Fall 2011) -Southbound Campground (Summer 2012) Cottage/Family Camp Fall SUNDAY-Northbound (Summer 2012) -Southbound Recreation / Vacation No Res pons e Summer SUNDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Station 3 Highway 11 South of North Bay Fall WEEKDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Fall SUNDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Summer SUNDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Station 4 Highway 17 West of Mattawa Fall WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Fall SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound GATEWAY LOCATIONS

Station 5 Highway 11 & 17 West of Nipigon INTERIOR LOCATIONS Summer WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Station 6 Highway 17 West of Sudbury Summer WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SATURDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

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All of the provincial highway survey locations for all survey days have long average travel distances.

At all locations, trip volumes by trip purpose are roughly balanced by direction over the course of the day on weekdays. Some sites had directional Sunday flows indicating the end of weekend recreational trips that would have been made in the opposite direction on a Friday or Saturday. All survey locations except for Highway 11 & 17 west of Nipigon (Station 5) had higher passenger vehicle volumes on Sundays than on weekdays.

Exhibit ES.6 shows trip length distributions for traffic across all four gateway locations in fall 2011 for weekdays vs. Sundays. Exhibit ES.7 shows similar trip length information for Station 6, Highway 17 west of Sudbury, for three days: weekday, Saturday and Sunday. Trip lengths in this report are straight-line distances between origin and survey station, and survey station and destination, and therefore are lower than actual driving distances. Not surprisingly, there are more longer trips (100 km or more) on Sundays. The Station 6 plot (ES.7) shows that the Saturday has about 50% more trips over 500 km than the Sunday (1,800 vs. 1,200), while the Sunday has more traffic than Saturday overall.

Exhibit ES.6: Trip Length Distribution by Day of Week, Gateway Survey Locations, Fall 2011

6,000 Weekday Sunday 5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000 Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

Exhibit ES.7: Trip Length Distribution by Day of Week, Station 6 – Highway 17 West of Sudbury, Summer 2012

3,500 Total Trips 3,000 2,500 Weekday Saturday Sunday 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

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A selection of conceptual passenger vehicle flows at the six provincial highway sites are shown in Exhibits ES.8 through ES.11 for Sundays.

 6,800 vehicle trips on Highway 69 south of Sudbury (Station 2);

 3,500 vehicle trips on Highway 11 south of North Bay (Station 3); and

 2,700 vehicle trips on Highway 17 east of North Bay (Station 4).

In Northwestern Ontario at the Ontario-Manitoba border, some 3,500 trips are made on a fall Sunday by Manitoba-registered vehicles to/from Northwestern 61 Ontario – about three times greater than the number of Ontario-registered vehicles traveling past this location on Sundays.

Exhibit ES.8: Travel Flows at Northwestern Ontario Gateway: Ontario-Manitoba Border – Fall 2011 Sunday

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IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.9: Travel Flows at Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Fall 2011 Sunday

Exhibit ES.10: Travel Flows at Highway 11&17 West of Nipigon – Summer 2012 Sunday

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Exhibit ES.11: Travel Flows at Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 Sunday

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to border plus straight-line distance from border to destination

1.4 ES.4 Summary

Key findings from the Northern Ontario passenger vehicle survey results are listed below.

1. The provincial highway “gateway” locations show strong connection between Northern Ontario and other regions.

2. Northern Ontario’s urban centres are common origins or destinations for passenger vehicle travel in Northern Ontario.

3. Cross-border travel flows indicate that Northern Ontario residents have strong connections to US border towns.

4. Cross-border vacation traffic is more balanced between Canadian and US residents than most trip purposes, but is a much smaller component of Northern Ontario cross-border traffic.

5. The Northern Ontario passenger vehicle survey provided insights into differences in travel patterns by day-of-week.

6. Surveys conducted in early fall 2011 captured lower but comparable overall traffic levels compared to summer 2012. While there are similarities in travel patterns across seasons at each location, in general there are fewer long-distance recreation/vacation trips and more short- distance recreation, social and shopping trips and more work trips in fall than in summer.

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1. Introduction 1.1 Study Background

The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario directs the Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) to develop a Northern Ontario Multimodal Transportation Strategy. This strategy will chart a long-term course for future planning, policy, programs, and infrastructure investment opportunities. An important starting point to developing a sound strategy is having an accurate and comprehensive understanding of travel patterns and characteristics in the region. Origin- destination (O-D) surveys provide a rich source of transportation information.

MTO has retained IBI Group to conduct O-D surveys at various sites throughout Northern Ontario on the provincial highway network and at international border crossings. The survey program consists of three components:

 a commercial vehicle survey;

 a passenger vehicle survey; and

 traffic classification counts to allow for the data expansion of the surveys.

This report summarizes findings from the passenger vehicle surveys conducted in early fall 2011 and summer 2012 at ten locations. Two survey methodologies were used:

 at border crossing locations, driver intercept surveys were conducted; and

 at provincial highway locations, the licence plates of vehicles passing survey locations were recorded, and mail-back surveys were sent to addresses of the corresponding Ontario-registered vehicle owners. 1.2 Report Purpose and Organization

This report describes the results of the passenger vehicle survey, and provides a profile of border crossing and provincial highway travel. Other aspects of the passenger vehicle survey are documented in the following reports:

 Passenger Vehicle Survey: Design and Conduct;

 Passenger Vehicle Survey: Traffic and Vehicle Classification Summary; and

 Passenger Vehicle Survey: Data Coding, Validation and Expansion.

The Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey is also documented separately.

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This introductory chapter describes the study background, provides an overview of the design and conduct of the survey and resulting survey sample rates, and provides a brief Northern Ontario context. Chapters 2 and 3 of the report provide a summary of the findings for the border crossing surveys and provincial highway surveys, respectively. Chapter 4 provides a report summary. 1.3 Design and Conduct of Survey

The passenger vehicle surveys were conducted at eight locations in fall 2011 and five locations in summer 2012. These locations capture travel in the major travel corridors in Northern Ontario, including the Canada-USA border crossing locations and on major provincial highways, using two methodologies:

A total of 8,864 driver interview surveys were conducted; after coding and validation of trip records, 8,714 survey records were carried forward in the database: 5,870 for fall 2011 and 2,844 for summer 2012.

Passenger vehicle survey locations are shown in Exhibit 1.1.

All four Northern Ontario international border crossings were surveyed on a weekday and a Sunday in early fall 2011. To provide additional insight into summer peak tourism travel patterns, the Sault Ste. Marie border – the highest- volume crossing - was also surveyed on Saturday and Sunday in July 2012.

The 2011 provincial highway surveys included weekday and Sunday surveys at four “gateway” locations near the boundaries of Northern Ontario in early fall. The summer 2012 provincial highway surveys re-visited the two busiest “gateways” on Sundays for additional insight into peak summer tourism travel characteristics. The 2012 surveys also included two new “interior” locations to provide insight into long-distance travel within Northern Ontario.

Appendix A includes the survey forms used in two types of surveys.

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Exhibit 1.1: Map of Passenger Vehicle Survey Locations

Border Crossing Survey Locations (2011)

Provincial Highway Survey Locations (2011)

Border Crossing Survey Locations (2012)

Provincial Highway Survey Locations (2012)

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The valid survey sample rates by survey station are shown in Exhibit 1.2. The overall valid sample rate at border crossings is 27% of cross-border passenger vehicle traffic, and the valid sample rate for provincial highway surveys is 10% of passenger vehicle traffic at the survey locations. These sample rates allow for a very strong basis for travel pattern analysis.

The results in this report are expanded results, with an expansion weight associated with each record such that the sums of expansion weights equal the total traffic passing through each survey station.

Exhibit 1.2: Valid Survey Sample by Station

Passenger Valid Valid Vehicle Sample Survey Station Day Direction Surveys Traffic Rate Border Crossings – Interview Surveys Fall 2011 Sault Ste. Marie Border Weekday To Canada 280 2,587 10.8% To USA 301 2,596 11.6% Sunday To Canada 392 3,063 12.8% To USA 354 2,621 13.5% Pigeon River Border Weekday To Canada 228 613 37.2% To USA 302 611 49.4% Sunday To Canada 444 1,131 39.3% To USA 304 875 34.7% Fort Frances Border Weekday To Canada 402 987 40.8% To USA 478 1,138 42.0% Sunday To Canada 427 979 43.6% To USA 605 1,042 58.1% Rainy River Border Weekday To Canada 264 452 58.5% To USA 284 458 62.0% Sunday To Canada 379 439 86.4% To USA 426 570 74.7% 2011 Total 5,870 20,159 29.1% Sumer 2012 Sault Ste. Marie Border Saturday To Canada 577 3,230 17.9% To USA 768 3,187 24.1% Sunday To Canada 580 3,186 18.2% To USA 919 2,772 33.2% 2012 Total 2,844 12,375 23.0% Total 2011 and 2012 TOTAL 8,714 32,53326.8%

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Exhibit 1.2: Valid Survey Sample by Station (continued) Valid Passenger Valid Trip Vehicle Sample Survey Station Day Direction Records Traffic Rate Provincial Highway Licence Plate Recording/Mail-Back Fall 2011 1 Highway 17 at ON- Weekday Eastbound 75 1,320 5.7%* MB Border Westbound 68 1,297 5.2%* Sunday Eastbound 122 1,521 8.0%* Westbound 77 3,102 2.5%* 2 Highway 69 north of Weekday Northbound 143 2,201 6.5% Parry Sound Southbound 88 2,401 3.7% Sunday Northbound 338 3,390 10.0% Southbound 257 5,122 5.0% 3 Highway 11 south of Weekday Northbound 579 4,063 14.3% North Bay Southbound 597 4,122 14.5% Sunday Northbound 596 4,212 14.2% Southbound 432 4,100 10.5% 4 Highway 17 west of Weekday Eastbound 126 1,554 8.1% Mattawa Westbound 139 1,560 8.9% Sunday Westbound 250 1,735 14.4% Westbound 264 1,868 14.1% 2011 Total 4,151 43,566 9.5% Summer 2012 2A Highway 69 north Sunday Northbound 585 4,254 13.8% of Parry Sound Southbound 511 4,697 10.9% 3 Highway 11 south of Sunday Northbound 402 4,212 9.5% North Bay Southbound 454 4,100 11.1% 5 Highway 11/17 west Weekday Eastbound 177 2,045 8.7% of Nipigon Westbound 171 2,046 8.4% Sunday Eastbound 181 1,699 10.7% Westbound 224 1,868 12.0% 6 Highway 17 west of Weekday Eastbound 431 4,966 8.7% Sudbury Westbound 520 4,958 10.5% Saturday Eastbound 410 4,499 9.1% Westbound 495 5,282 9.4% Sunday Eastbound 473 6,565 7.2% Westbound 348 4,436 7.8% 2012 Total 5,382 55,627 9.7% Total 2011 and 2012 TOTAL 9,533 99,1939.6% Total Border and Provincial Highway Surveys All 2011 and 2012 Surveys 18,247 131,726 13.9%

Note: * Survey sample is based on total passenger vehicle traffic; records were expanded to represent estimated Ontario vehicles only (resulting in an approximately 20% sample) at Station 1 due to the very high incidence of vehicles with Manitoba licence plates that could not be surveyed and that are expected to have significantly different travel patterns than vehicles with Ontario plates.

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1.4 Northern Ontario Context

This section contains a brief description of the population distribution and provincial road network in Northern Ontario to provide some context for the travel patterns described in this report.

Population Distribution Northern Ontario’s Census population in 2011 was 733,000 people, or about 6% of Ontario’s total population; this does not include a portion of Northern Ontario’s population in incompletely enumerated aboriginal communities. Exhibit 1.3 is a table showing the distribution of Northern Ontario Census population by municipal area, typically Districts; these were also mapped in Exhibit 1.1, which showed survey locations.

Exhibit 1.3: Northern Ontario 2011 Census Population by Region

% of 2011 Northern Census Ontario Region Area Type Population Population Northwestern Ontario Kenora District 57,607 7.9% Kenora City 15,348 2.1% Rest of Kenora District - 42,259 5.8% Rainy River District 20,370 2.8% Thunder Bay District 146,057 19.9% Thunder Bay (City) City 108,359 14.8% Rest of Thunder Bay District - 37,698 5.1% Total Northwestern Ontario - 224,034 30.5% Northeastern Ontario Algoma District 115,870 15.8% Sault Ste Marie City 75,141 10.2% Rest of Algoma - 36,070 5.6% Cochrane District 81,122 11.1% Timmins City 43,165 5.9% Rest of Cochrane - 40,729 5.2% Greater Sudbury City 160,770 21.9% Sudbury District 21,196 2.9% Timiskaming District 32,634 4.4% Manitoulin District 13,048 1.8% Nipissing District 84,736 11.6% North Bay City 53,651 7.3% Rest of Nipissing - 31,085 4.2% Total Northwestern Ontario - 509,376 69.5% Total Northern Ontario Total 733,410 100%

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(Parry Sound and Muskoka Districts are sometimes considered part of an extended Northern Ontario region; these are not listed in the exhibit.)

Over half of Northern Ontario residents live in the five largest urban areas, from largest to smallest: Sudbury (161,000 population), Thunder Bay (122,000), Sault Ste. Marie (80,000), North Bay (64,000) and Timmins (43,000). Overall 70% of the population lives in Northern Ontario’s urban areas, which compares to 86% urban population in Southern Ontario. The population in Northern Ontario is much more spread out across the region than in Southern Ontario, often with several hundred kilometres between major urban centres.

As a significant draw for recreational trips for residents from other regions including Southern Ontario, Manitoba and the United States, the seasonal population of Northern Ontario is anticipated to be significantly higher than the numbers represented by the Census. Northern Ontario’s common recreational attractions include campgrounds, cottages, fishing, and hunting, among others.

Provincial Highway Network The two main provincial highway routes in Northern Ontario are Highways 11 and 17, which are arterial two-lane highways for much of their length except in the vicinity of larger urban centres.

Highway 17 is a Trans-Canada highway and runs generally east-west across northern Ontario from the Ontario-Manitoba border in the west through eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa region (where it becomes Highway 417); from west to east across Northern Ontario, Highway 17 connects the urban areas of Kenora, Dryden, Thunder Bay, Nipigon, Wawa, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, North Bay and Mattawa.

Highway 11 runs both east-west across most of the province from the Rainy River US border crossing in the west to approximately Cochrane in the east, then runs north-south to Barrie in the south; from west to east Highway 11 connects the Northern Ontario urban areas of Rainy River, Fort Frances, Thunder Bay, Nipigon, Hearst, Kapuskasing, Cochrane, New Liskeard, and North Bay.

Between Nipigon and Thunder Bay, Highway 11 and 17 are co-signed. Being the only highway option across the top of Lake Superior, all road travel between eastern and western Canada use this link (if not traveling via the United States).

Other major highways provide important connections across regions:

 Highway 101 runs east-west across Northeastern Ontario from Highway 17 at Wawa to the Quebec border, and also connects Chapleau and Timmins;

 Highways 129 and 144 together form a broad north-west corridor between Highways 17 and 101 in Algoma and Sudbury areas. Highway 129 runs from Chapleau to Thessalon (east of Sault Ste. Marie) and Highway 144 runs north from west of Sudbury to west of Timmins;

 Highway 69 connects Sudbury and Parry Sound, and continues farther south as part of Highway 400, forming a gateway between the Muskoka region and Northern Ontario;

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 Highway 61 connects Thunder Bay to the US border crossing at Pigeon River, where the road continues as Minnesota Highway 61; and

 Highway 71 connects the Kenora Region with Highway 11 near Rainy River.

Some provincial highways are the only available roadway connection for certain communities:

 Highway 6 connects Manitoulin Island to Highway 17, although an alternative travel mode is via the ferry route connecting South Baymouth to the continuation of Highway 6 in Southwestern Ontario;

 Highway 106 connects Elliot Lake to Highway 17; and

 Highways 72 and 105 serve Kenora District communities north of Highway 17.

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2. Border-Crossing Survey Summary – International Travel

This chapter provides an overview of passenger vehicle travel between Canada and the United States at the four Northern Ontario international border crossing locations; from west to east, these are Rainy River, Fort Frances, Pigeon River and Sault Ste. Marie.

Additional traffic and travel pattern detail by crossing and direction is included in the following appendices:

 Traffic classification count detail by day and direction are included in Appendix B for each survey station, including hourly volume variation plots;

 In-depth information on travel patterns by crossing, day and direction are included in Appendix C, including detailed origin-destination plots, and summaries by trip purpose; and

 Detailed travel origin-destination matrices by crossing are included in Appendix D.

The origin-destination survey database can be analysed further in a number of ways not included in this report as may be desired for particular transportation planning purposes. 2.1 Overview of Border-Crossing Travel

To provide some geographical context, three of the crossings have both US and Canadian border towns immediately adjacent to the borders:

 Rainy River (population 850) is across the border from the slightly larger town of Baudette, Minnesota (population 1,000);

 Fort Frances (population 8,000) is across the border from International Falls, Minnesota (population 6,500); and

 Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario (population 75,000) is across the border from a smaller town by the same name in Michigan (population 14,000).

While these US border towns are comparable to or smaller than their Canadian counterparts in terms of population, they tend to have shops (in particular Walmart), services, restaurants, casinos and other entertainment options that are a significant draw for residents on the Canadian side.

The fourth crossing, Pigeon River, is more distant from urban areas, with Thunder Bay about 60 km to the north via Highway 61. The closest US community to the south is Grand Portage, about 10 km to the south along Minnesota Highway 61. The population of Grand Portage numbers in the hundreds, but two local businesses are a significant draw for Canadian visitors: the Grand Portage casino, and – conveniently located immediately south of the border – a border store/gas station/parcel service.

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The border crossing surveys were conducted in fall 2011 on a Sunday and a weekday. Passenger vehicle border crossing volumes totalled 9,200 on fall 2011 weekdays, and 11,140 on Sundays (21% higher).

The Sault Ste. Marie crossing accounted for over half the total Northern Ontario passenger vehicle border crossings; therefore, this crossing was selected for supplemental surveys conducted in summer 2012 on a Saturday and a Sunday to gain additional insight into travel patterns during the peak tourism period.

Exhibit 2.1 provides overall statistics by border crossing including total volumes, proportion of Canadian vs. US passenger-vehicle traffic, distribution of trips by trip purpose, travel distances, and trip frequencies.

Exhibit 2.1: Border Surveys: Summary of Travel Indicators by Crossing and Day Trip Purpose (%) Trip Distance (km)* Pass- Recrea- Trip enger % tion/ Shop/ Work/ Personal Frequency: Survey Day of Vehicle Canadian Vacation/ Fuel/ Busines Business/ % Monthly Location Week Traffic Vehicles Casino Mail s Social Other Canada USA Total or More Fall 2011 Rainy River Weekday 910 82% 19% 43% 15% 9% 13% 45 74 118 89% Sunday 1,120 83% 41% 27% 4% 17% 11% 40 93 133 86% Fort Frances Weekday 1,860 73% 21% 46% 11% 12% 9% 39 75 114 87% Sunday 2,250 71% 32% 38% 4% 16% 9% 46 107 154 82% Pigeon Weekday 1,370 82% 63% 21% 7% 5% 3% 85 201 286 57% River Sunday 1,970 85% 61% 21% 4% 5% 7% 69 149 217 54% Sault Ste. Weekday 5,070 81% 29% 43% 14% 7% 7% 50 102 152 83% Marie Sunday 5,800 84% 47% 34% 4% 11% 4% 51 116 167 78% Total Weekday 9,200 80% 31% 40% 12% 8% 8% 52 108 161 80% Sunday 11,140 81% 46% 32% 4% 11% 6% 52 118 170 75% Summer 2012 Sault Ste. Saturday 5,720 70% 52% 30% 3% 11% 4% 89 251 340 61% Marie Sunday 6,540 76% 55% 26% 2% 13% 4% 91 235 326 65% Note: * Straight-line distance from trip origin/destination to border

As a note on terminology, this report refers to “trips” as one-way travel, corresponding to one vehicle crossing the border. As such a “journey” to cross the border and back can be considered two “trips”. The border survey questionnaire did not ask about the length of travel or about the opposite-direction trip across the border.

In general, Canadians cross the Northern Ontario borders much more frequently than Americans. In Fall 2011, approximately four times as many Canadian-registered vehicles crossed the Northern Ontario borders than American-registered vehicles. Fort Frances the proportion was somewhat less at 71% to 73%. In the summer, with an increase in US vehicles crossing the border, the proportion of Canadian vehicles at the Sault Ste. Marie crossing was also lower.

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Discretionary trips (non-work, non-school trips) predominate at the Northern Ontario border crossings. Recreation and vacation trips (including casino trips) are among the most common Northern Ontario cross-border trip purposes at 31% of weekday trips and 47% of Sunday trips overall. Shopping trips are common on both weekdays and weekends and account for a third or more of cross-border trips. Work/business- related trips account for 12% of cross-border trips on weekdays and 4% on Sundays.

Travel distances at Northern Ontario border crossings are varied, ranging from fairly short same-day excursions between the towns on either side of the border, to trips starting or ending at considerable distances from the crossing. The average distances reported in the fall were 170 km on the Sunday and 161 km on the weekday.

Passenger-vehicle trips across the Northern Ontario borders tend to be made by drivers who are familiar with the border crossings, with 75% to 80% of fall 2011 trips made at least monthly. Cross-border trip frequencies vary by trip purpose: work trips are most frequent; shopping, casino and social trips are made at least once per month, often weekly; and vacation trips are low frequency, long-distance events, as will be seen later in this chapter when trip frequencies are considered in more detail.

Summer 2012 weekend surveys at Sault Ste. Marie captured a period of slightly higher traffic volumes at this crossing compared to the early fall 2011 survey period. The summer Sunday 2012 traffic volumes at Sault Ste. Marie were 11% higher than in Fall 2011 (6,540 vs. 5,800), largely due to an increase in cross-border travel by Americans to visit Northern Ontario campgrounds, cottages/camps/cabins (the term varies across Ontario), and other types of vacations. 2.2 Trip Purposes by Vehicle Registration

Very distinct differences can be seen in the types of trips across the Northern Ontario borders by Canadian vs. American residents. (The country of the vehicle’s registration/licence plate is used as a proxy for the home country of people in the vehicle in this analysis, as home country information was not always provided by the survey respondent.)

Trip purpose was not directly asked in the border crossing driver-interview survey. The surveys included questions about the activity at both the origin and destination of their trips, as well as at the ultimate start and end locations of their trips if these were different from the origin or destination locations. For analysis purposes, the principal trip purpose was inferred from the activities at each location. In most cases, one side of the border had a “home” activity (or else work or school, etc.), which became the base and the main activity on the other side of the border became the trip purpose. When more than one activity was noted on the opposite side of the border, these were ranked according to their estimated significance to determine an overall trip purpose for analysis (e.g. hunting, fishing, campground and cottage/camp were higher up on the ranking and took precedence over going to a restaurant or stopping for fuel).

In the following pages four exhibits summarize travel information by trip purpose and country of vehicle registration:

 Exhibit 2.2 is a bar chart showing total trips by country of vehicle registration, border crossing, survey period, and trip purpose for fall 2011;

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 Exhibit 2.3 is the same as above for the four survey days across two seasons at the Sault Ste. Marie crossing;

 Exhibit 2.4 includes statistics for total trips by trip purpose by day for fall 2011, including vehicle occupancies (number of people in the vehicle), average travel distances on either side of the border, and travel frequencies, with some aggregation of trip purposes compared to the plots, and

 Exhibit 2.5 includes statistics by trip purpose and country of vehicle registration at the Sault Ste. Marie crossing for fall weekday, and a Summer Saturday and Sunday.

Trips by Canadians were three to five times more common than trips by US residents at each of the Northern Ontario border crossings individually in fall 2011; overall about 80% of cross-border passenger vehicle traffic are Canadian-registered vehicles.

For all trip purposes, especially for vacation trips, trips by US-registered vehicles tend to involve longer distances on both the Canadian and US sides of the border on average than Canadian-registered vehicles.

In part because much of the travel across the Northern Ontario international borders is discretionary, and because services and attractions on either side of the border are available on all days of the week, there is a lot of similarity in the magnitudes and proportions of trips by trip purpose between days-of-week by crossing. There tends to be only a small percentage of (non-discretionary) cross-border school/work/business trips on weekdays, and even less on weekends.

The most significant trip types for Canadians were shopping and casino visits, as well as other recreation/entertainment purposes.

About 3,500 Canadian-registered vehicles crossed the Northern Ontario in fall 2011 for shopping purposes, corresponding to 38% of total weekday trips and 31% of Sunday trips. This is about twice as much as the total number of trips by US- registered vehicles for all trip purposes combined in the fall season. These shopping trips tend to be relatively short – less than 40 km on weekdays and a little longer on weekends. They also tend to be made frequently: two-thirds of respondents said they made the trip at least weekly.

Travel to US casinos near the Northern Ontario border is also among the most common type of trip for Canadians near the Pigeon River and Sault Ste. Marie borders. About 1,000 weekday trips and 1,500 Sunday trips related to visiting these casinos. Like shopping trips, these trips are relatively short-distance trips. Those who make these cross-border casino trips make them relatively frequently: about 60% of those who go on weekdays make the trip at least weekly, while 50% of those who go on Sundays go at least weekly. (Virtually none of the casino trips were one-time trips.)

Recreation/entertainment cross-border trips by Canadian-registered vehicles total about 500 weekday trips and 1,700 Sunday trips. There tend to be more restaurants, theatres, sports events, and tourist attractions in the US border towns and surrounding area that draw Canadian residents just across the border. A couple hundred Canadian-registered vehicles also involve travel to/from US golf locations on Sundays, especially in the Sault Ste. Marie area.

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Exhibit 2.2: Border Crossing Trip Purposes by Country of Vehicle Registration and Crossing, Fall 2011

Daily Two-Way Passenger Vehicle Volume

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 CANADIAN-REGISTERED VEHICLES Rainy River: Weekday

Sunday

Fort Frances: Weekday Shopping

Sunday Shopping

Pigeon River: Weekday Casino

Sunday Casino

Sault Ste Marie: Weekday Shopping Casino

Sunday Shopping Casino

Total Weekday Shopping Casino Recreation/ Total Sunday Visit friends Shopping Casino entertainment

UNITED STATES - REGISTERED VEHICLES Legend: School Rainy River: Weekday Work Sunday Business Medical Visit friends/relatives Fort Frances: Weekday Religious/civic activity Sunday Shopping Mail/post office Fuel Pigeon River: Weekday Hunting Sunday Fishing Golf Cas ino Sault Ste Marie: Weekday Sports event Sunday Restaurant Theatre/show Recreation/entertainment (other) Total Weekday Fish Tourist attraction Total Sunday Fish Vacation Other/unknow n

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Exhibit 2.3: Border Crossing Trip Purposes by Country of Vehicle Registration at Sault Ste. Marie, 2011 and 2012

Daily Two-Way Passenger Vehicle Volume 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Legend: School CANADIAN-REGISTERED VEHICLES Work Fall 2011 Weekday Work Shopping Casino Business Medical Visit Vac. Fall 2011 Sunday Shopping Golf Casino friends Visit friends/relatives Religious/civic activity Shopping Visit Summer 2012 Saturday Shopping Casino Vac. Mail/post office friends Fuel Visit Summer 2012 Sunday Shopping Golf Casino Vacation friends Hunting Fishing Campground (2012) UNITED STATES - REGISTERED VEHICLES Cottage/Family Camp (2012) Golf Fall 2011 Weekday Vac. Cas ino Fall 2011 Sunday Vac. Sports event Restaurant Theatre/show Recreation/entertainment Summer 2012 Saturday Vacation (other/unspecified) Visit Summer 2012 Sunday Vac.n Tourist attraction friends Vacation Other/unknow n

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Exhibit 2.4: Trip Purpose Statistics by Country of Vehicle Registration, All Border Crossings, Fall 2011

2 % of Avg. Average Distance (km) Trip Frequency Total People/ In In 1x/ 1x/ 1-4 x/ 1 Time Trip Purpose1 Trips % Trips Vehicle Canada USA Total Daily Week Month Year Only WEEKDAY Vehicles Registered in Canada Work/business/school 913 12% 10% 1.30 23 56 79 62% 20% 5% 7% 5% Visit friends/relatives 419 6% 5% 1.51 73 200 273 18% 40% 9% 21% 13% Shopping 3,515 48% 38% 1.64 18 19 36 6% 63% 22% 8% 1% Hunting 21 0.3% 0.2%1.94**** * *** Fishing 35 0.5% 0.4%3.04 166 346 512 - 5% 6%84% - Casino 1,035 14% 11 %1.99 41 29 70 2% 59% 27%10% 0% Recreation/ 532 7% 6% 2.03 32 124 157 11% 41% 11% 30% 7% entertainment Vacation 269 4% 23%1.72 171 281 452 2% 21% 9%36% 29% Medical 143 2% 2%1.50 41 110 150 11% 31% 24%33% 1% Other 445 6% 5%1.81 28 156 184 10% 35% 21%20% 8% TOTAL 7,327 100% 80.0% 1.69 34 66 100 13% 50% 18% 13% 4% Vehicles Registered in United States Work/business/school 219 12% 2% 1.29 33 104 137 55% 15% 5% 19% 5% Visit friends/relatives 291 16% 3% 1.55 63 205 268 17% 30% 15% 24% 12% Shopping 178 10% 2%1.74 13 12 24 10% 44% 22%21% 3% Hunting 43 2% 0.5%1.63 205 479 683 - 5% 14%65% 16% Fishing 318 17% 4% 2.45 209 417 626 - 0% 8% 81% 9% Casino 23 1.2% 0.2%1.51**** * *** Recreation/ 320 17% 4% 2.03 142 391 533 5% 14% 7% 30% 43% entertainment Vacation 336 18% 4% 1.91 231 399 630 - 6% 7% 36% 45% Medical 6 0.3% 0.1%2.22**** * *** Other 96 5% 1.0%1.65 13 198 211 22% 35% 6%26% 2% TOTAL 1,830 100% 20.0% 1.85 125 283 407 12% 16% 10% 37% 21% Notes: * Statistics not shown when trips total less than 25. 1 Notes on Trip Purposes: “Shopping” includes fuel, mail/post office. “Recreation/vacation” includes tourist attraction, sports event, golf, unspecified/other recreation/vacation type. “Vacation” excludes above and includes unspecified/other vacation type. “Other” includes religious/civic activity, other, refused/unknown. 2 Distances are straight-line distances

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Exhibit 2.4: Trip Purpose Statistics by Country of Vehicle Registration, All Border Crossings, Fall 2011 (continued)

2 % of Avg. Average Distance (km) Trip Frequency Total People/ In In 1x/ 1x/ 1-4 x/ 1 Time Trip Purpose1 Trips % Trips Vehicle Canada USA Total Daily Week Month Year Only SUNDAY Vehicles Registered in CANADA Work/business/school 361 4% 3% 1.41 50 95 145 44% 20% 13% 20% 3% Visit friends/relatives 878 10% 8% 1.74 60 185 245 12% 33% 17% 26% 11% Shopping 3,427 38% 31% 1.96 17 42 59 7% 58% 19% 13% 2% Hunting 19 0.2% 0.2%1.78**** * *** Fishing 14 0.2% 0.1%2.13**** * *** Casino 1,548 17% 14% 2.02 47 39 86 4% 45% 33% 17% 1% Recreation/ 1,721 19% 16% 2.17 26 73 99 12% 46% 14% 22% 6% entertainment Vacation 598 7% 5% 2.11 130 277 407 1% 18% 7% 37% 36% Medical 36 0.4% 0.3%1.62 37 296 333 - 31% 10%56% 3% Other 473 5% 4% 2.01 30 89 119 11% 35% 9% 25% 5% TOTAL 9,075 100% 82.0% 1.97 39 84 122 9% 46% 19% 19% 6% Vehicles Registered in UNITED STATES Work/business/school 76 4% 0.7% 1.56 24 112 136 42% 24% 7% 12% 15% Visit friends/relatives 375 19% 3% 1.77 49 91 141 17% 35% 19% 26% 4% Shopping 108 5% 1.0%2.31 76 12 88 1% 27% 9%42% 18% Hunting 62 3% 0.6%1.75 173 543 716 - 14% 3%75% 8% Fishing 469 24% 4%2.30 156 422 578 1% 3% 12%73% 8% Casino 36 2% 0.3%1.67 7 33 41 21% 12% 3%- 64% Recreation/ 316 16% 2.9% 2.99 83 396 479 - 16% 15% 41% 28% entertainment Vacation 401 20% 3.6%2.07 190 331 522 0% 10% 17%28% 44% Medical 2 0.1% 0.0%1.00**** * *** Other 145 7% 1.3%3.62 56 96 152 6% 56% 4%16% 8% TOTAL 1,991 100% 18.0% 2.30 112 276 388 6% 19% 13% 40% 19% Notes: * Statistics not shown when trips total less than 25. 1 Notes on Trip Purposes: “Shopping” includes fuel, mail/post office. “Recreation/vacation” includes tourist attraction, sports event, golf, unspecified/other recreation/vacation type. “Vacation” excludes above and includes unspecified/other vacation type. “Other” includes religious/civic activity, other, refused/unknown. 2 Distances are straight-line distances

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Exhibit 2.5: Trip Purpose Statistics by Country of Vehicle Registration, Sault Ste. Marie, Day-of-Week Comparison WEEKDAY (Fall 2011) SATURDAY (Summer 2012) SUNDAY (Summer 2012) Avg. Avg. Avg. % of Total % of Total % of Total Total Dist.2 Total Dist. 2 Total Dist. 2 Trip Purpose1 Trips % Trips (km) Trips % Trips (km) Trips % Trips (km) Vehicles Registered in Canada Work/business/school 566 14% 11% 43 138 3% 2% 177 125 3% 2% 338 Visit friends/relatives 196 5% 4% 289 386 10% 7% 417 489 10% 7% 503 Shopping 2,069 50% 41% 28 1,699 43% 30% 36 1,641 33% 25% 34 Hunting 20 0.5% 0.4%* not applicable3 not applicable3 Fishing 13 0.3% 0.3%* not applicable3 not applicable3 Campground not applicable3 98 2% 2% 246 168 3.4% 3% 413 Cottage/Family Camp not applicable3 120 3% 2% 785 131 2.6% 2% 345 Casino 569 14% 11% 58 562 14% 10% 53 784 16% 12% 53 Recreation/ 224 5% 4% 106 506 13% 9% 151 945 19% 14% 216 entertainment Vacation 110 3% 2%571 314 8% 6% 734 497 10%8% 716 Medical 86 2% 2% 142 13 0% 0.2% * 16 0% 0.3% * Other 245 6% 5% 272 160 4% 3% 442 173 3% 3% 535 TOTAL 4,099 100% 81.1% 88 3,997 100% 70.0% 197 4,970 100% 76.2% 233 Vehicles Registered in United States Work/business/school 131 14% 3% 155 35 2% 0.6% 284 20 1% 0.3% * Visit friends/relatives 148 16% 3% 372 221 13% 4% 506 364 23% 6% 347 Shopping 96 10% 2% 18 40 2% 0.7% 179 51 3% 0.8% 117 Hunting 10 1% 0.2%* not applicable3 not applicable3 Fishing 118 12% 2%573 not applicable3 not applicable3 Campground not applicable3 162 9% 3% 744 95 6% 1.5% 373 Cottage/Family Camp not applicable3 306 18% 5% 742 297 19% 5% 519 Casino 14 1.5% 0.3% * 25 1.5% 0.4% 103 19 1.2% 0.3% * Recreation/ 199 21% 4% 597 278 16% 5% 569 210 14% 3.2% 418 entertainment Vacation 194 20% 4%646 602 35% 10% 826 443 28%7% 609 Medical ------* 0 0%0% * Other 45 5% 0.9%333 43 3% 0.8% 435 57 4%0.9% 126 TOTAL 955 100% 18.9% 429 1,713 100% 30.0% 674 1,556 100% 23.8% 445 Notes: * Statistics not shown when trips total less than 25. 1 Notes on Trip Purposes: “Shopping” includes fuel, mail/post office. “Recreation/vacation” includes tourist attraction, sports event, golf, unspecified/other recreation/vacation type. “Vacation” excludes above and includes unspecified/other vacation type. “Other” includes religious/civic activity, other, refused/unknown. 2 Distances are straight-line distances 3 The given trip purpose was not an option on the survey questionnaire for the survey season.

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In Northern Ontario border towns, social trips to visit family or friends make up much of the remaining cross-border trips made by Canadians (after shopping, casino, and recreation/entertainment trips); there is a similar volume of cross-border social trips by Americans at these crossings. Sometimes cross-border trips are made to attend church services, funerals and weddings as well. These patterns suggests a high degree of social interconnectedness across the border at these border towns. The Pigeon River crossing, which is not a border town, has a very low number of social trips.

Cross-border fishing trips are almost exclusively made by US-registered vehicles, numbering roughly 300 to 500 vehicles daily in the fall. In comparison, cross-border hunting trips are very rare, although the hunting season may not have been in full swing at the time of the surveys, and perhaps also due to security issues in bringing hunting equipment across the border.

Other vacation trips across the Northern Ontario borders number in hundreds of vehicles daily in the fall – in comparable volumes by Canadian vs. American- registered vehicles.

A total of about 150 cross-border trips for medical purposes were made into the US on weekdays by Canadian-registered vehicles at the Northern Ontario borders; there were virtually no cross-border trips for medical purposes by US-registered vehicles.

Summer Weekend Travel At Sault Ste. Marie, where fall and summer Sunday results could be compared, there was little relative difference in the total volume of Canadian-registered vehicles crossing between seasons, given the high frequency of same-day short-distance trips relative to other trip types. The total recreation and vacation cross-border vacation trips by Canadian-registered vehicles remains fairly constant in summer vs. fall, such that an increase in vacation trips in the summer are somewhat matched by a decrease in recreation/entertainment trips, suggesting that these types of trips are at least partly made by the same population.

There was a two-thirds increase in US-registered vehicles between a fall Sunday (1,900) and summer Sunday (3,100), reflecting the high proportion of cross-border travel by Americans comprising vacation travel, which fluctuates more by season. There were about 440 US vehicles traveling to/from Canada for general vacation purposes on a summer Sunday, the early fall surveys had about 190 vacation trips, or 43% of summer Sunday totals.

The summer Saturday had one-third more US vehicles crossing for vacation purposes than on the Sunday – 600 vs. 440. In addition, about 470 vehicles on the Saturday vs. 390 vehicles on the Sunday were travelling to/from campgrounds and cottages/family camps in Canada. The average trip distances by US-registered vehicles crossing the borders for most trip purposes were longer on Saturdays vs. Sundays, whereas trips made by Canadian-registered vehicles tended to be slightly longer on Sundays vs. Saturdays. 2.3 Origin-Destination Flows

Origin-destination flows described in this section and in the following chapter are summarized based on a 31-zone system based on municipal or district boundaries. The zone system is illustrated in Exhibit 2.6.

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Exhibit 2.6: Summary Zone System

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Exhibit 2.7 and Exhibit 2.8 illustrate the inbound (to Canada) and outbound (to US) passenger-vehicle border-crossing flows for a fall 2011 weekday and Sunday, respectively, for all four Northern Ontario border crossings. Origin-destination matrices of these flows are also included as Exhibit 2.9 and Exhibit 2.10, respectively. The flows are described for each crossing from west to east below. Exhibit 2.11 illustrates the summer 2012 border crossing flows by direction at Sault Ste. Marie for a Saturday and Sunday.

Rainy River Crossing Trips through the Rainy River crossing were mostly between the Rainy River area in Ontario and the nearby towns of Baudette, Minnesota (Lake of the Woods County) and Warroad (Roseau County); a small number of trips are to/from other parts of Minnesota.

Some trips using the Rainy River crossing use just a portion of Minnesota as a short- cut between the Rainy River area and Winnipeg area, rather than taking the significantly longer route entirely within Canada.

A small portion of the cross-border traffic to/from US locations close to the border is part of longer-distance travel, as Canadians cross the borders to travel to/from airports in Winnipeg, Manitoba or Warroad, Minnesota.

Fort Frances Crossing Approximately 80% of all trips through the Fort Frances crossing were between Fort Frances and International Falls, Minnesota. Approximately 10% of the travel was between Kenora District and Minnesota, and the remainder of trips extended farther into Northern Ontario and/or Minnesota (e.g. Duluth and Minneapolis).

A significant proportion of US-registered passenger vehicles at this crossing can be seen pulling trailers with boats, attesting to the prevalence of cross-border fishing trips at this location.

Pigeon River Crossing At the Pigeon River crossing, 90% of the trips started or ended in the Greater Thunder Bay area, with most trips to Minnesota Highway 61 locations such as the Grand Portage casino and border store. About 250 km south of the border, Duluth is also a significant origin/destination for Pigeon River Crossing trips, as well as other Minneapolis locations.

The Northwestern Ontario international border crossings typically are used for travel to/from Northwestern Ontario only, given their location on the broader highway network and the geographic barrier of Lake Superior.

Sault Ste. Marie Crossing Compared to the other Northwestern Ontario border crossings, the Sault Ste. Marie crossing has larger volumes of trips with origins and destinations at longer distances from the border on the Canadian side, with trips to/from as far as Eastern Ontario and Quebec via Highway 17. However, the bulk of border crossings at Sault Ste. Marie border are to/from Canadian locations very close to the border. Trips to/from Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario accounted for 79% of trips on weekdays and 76% on Sundays in fall 2011. Including the broader Algoma District (e.g. Wawa and Elliot Lake), these local trips accounted for approximately 90% of the weekday travel and 85% of the Sunday travel in fall 2011. Other notable Canadian origins and destinations included the Sudbury area and Manitoulin Island. In addition, some 100

OCTOBER 30, 2013 20 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

weekday vehicle trips travel between Southwestern Ontario and Northeastern Ontario, as the route through the Michigan on Interstate 75 is the shortest distance between these locations, with more of this type of trip flow on weekends. On the US side, approximately 80% of Sault Ste. Marie border-crossing trips started or ended in the Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan area, with the rest of the origins and destinations spread across Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.

The travel flows on summer Sunday followed a similar pattern to the fall Sunday, but with longer distance origins and destinations figuring slightly more significantly.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 21 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.7: Daily Border Crossing Flows - Fall 2011 Weekday

FORT FRANCES Legend Inbound: 978 trips 1,000 trips 64 % Canadian vehicles 500 trips MANITOBA 117 km avg. trip length* 100 trips Outbound: 884 trips INBOUND 74 % Canadian vehicles OUTBOUND 110 km avg. trip length*

RAINY RIVER THUNDER BAY DISTRICT DISTRICT RAINY RIVER Inbound: OTHER NORTHEASTERN 444 trips OTHER PIGEON RIVER ALGOMA ONTARIO 71 % Canadian vehicles 92 km avg. trip length* Inbound: 676 trips Outbound: 71 % Canadian vehicles 461 trips 341 km avg. trip length* 78 % Canadian vehicles OTHER 147 km avg. trip length* MINNESOTA Outbound: 689 trips 84 % Canadian vehicles 232 km avg. trip length* SAULT STE MARIE Inbound: 2,581 trips 72 % Canadian vehicles 196 km avg. trip length*

OTHER Outbound: MICHIGAN 2,485 trips 83 % Canadian vehicles 106 km avg. trip length* SOUTH- CENTRAL ONTARIO OTHER USA SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

OTHER USA Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to border plus straight-line distance from border to destination

22 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.8: Daily Border Crossing Flows - Fall 2011 Sunday

FORT FRANCES Legend Inbound: 1,120 trips 1,000 trips 70 % Canadian vehicles 500 trips MANITOBA 131 km avg. trip length* 100 trips Outbound: 1,129 trips INBOUND 65 % Canadian vehicles OUTBOUND 176 km avg. trip length* RAINY RIVER THUNDER BAY DISTRICT DISTRICT

RAINY RIVER Inbound: OTHER 553 trips ALGOMA PIGEON RIVER 83 % Canadian vehicles 118 km avg. trip length* Inbound: 1,255 trips Outbound: 84 % Canadian vehicles 564 trips OTHER 235 km avg. trip length* 62 % Canadian vehicles MINNESOTA 147 km avg. trip length* Outbound: 711 trips 80 % Canadian vehicles 185 km avg. trip length* SAULT STE MARIE Inbound: 3,230 trips 84% Canadian vehicles OTHER 178 km avg. trip length* MICHIGAN Outbound: 2,573 trips 78% Canadian vehicles SOUTH- 154 km avg. trip length* CENTRAL ONTARIO OTHER USA SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

OTHER USA Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to border plus straight-line distance from border to destination

23 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.9: Border Crossing Origin-Destination Matrix for All Northern Ontario International Borders – Fall 2011 Weekday

24 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.10: Border Crossing Origin-Destination Matrix for All Northern Ontario International Borders – Fall 2011 Sunday

25 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.11: Daily Border Crossing Flows at Sault Ste. Marie – Summer 2012 A. SATURDAY B. SUNDAY

Legend

1,000 trips 500 trips 100 trips INBOUND OUTBOUND

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to border plus straight-line distance from border to destination

26 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

3. Mail-Back Survey Summary – Provincial Highway Travel

This chapter provides an overview of passenger vehicle travel at the six provincial highway travel pattern survey locations. Four of these locations are “gateway” locations and capture travel to/from Ontario from other parts of Ontario and Canada, and two locations are internal to Northern Ontario to capture long-distance travel within Northern Ontario.

Additional traffic and travel pattern detail by survey station, day and direction is included in the following appendices:

 Traffic classification count detail by day and direction are included in Appendix B for each survey station, including hourly volume variation plots;

 Additional in-depth information on travel patterns by survey location, day and direction are included in Appendix C, including detailed origin-destination plots, and summaries by trip purpose; and

 Detailed travel origin-destination matrices by survey location are included in Appendix D.

The origin-destination survey database can be analysed further in a number of ways beyond the analyses in this report, including time-of-day analysis, further origin-destination location detail, additional cross-tabulations of survey responses, etc. as desired for particular transportation planning purposes. 3.1 Overview of Provincial Highway Travel

Exhibit 3.1 provides a number of travel summary statistics from the traffic classification counts and mail-back travel surveys at the survey locations, including total passenger vehicle traffic, estimated proportion of Ontario- registered vehicles (from observations during licence plate recording), proportions of select trip purpose types, average people per vehicle, average trip lengths, and proportion of infrequent trips (trips made less frequently than once per month).

All of the provincial highway survey locations for all survey days have long average travel distances. These range from 155 km on a fall weekday at Highway 11 south of North Bay (Station 3) – roughly the distance between North Bay and Gravenhurst - to over 500 km on a fall weekday at Highway 17 at the Ontario-Manitoba border (Station 1) – about the distance from the survey station to Thunder Bay.

Some of the survey stations are close to Northern Ontario’s larger urban centres and therefore have significant work trip volumes on weekdays, which tend to be shorter trips. Trips for medical purposes are also significant, especially on weekdays, with many trips to/from health care centres in North Bay, Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Winnipeg.

27 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.1: Provincial Highway Surveys: Summary of Travel Indicators Trips by Trip Purpose Trip Average Averag Frequenc Pass. % ON Trip Re- e y: Day of Vehicle Vehicle Distance creation/ Medica People/ Monthly Survey Location Week Traffic s (km)1 Vacation % Work % l % Vehicle or More FALL 2011 Gateway Locations 1 Highway 17 at Ontario- Weekday 2,590 46% 544 263 22% 251 16% 325 27% 1.85 37% 2 Manitoba border Sunday 4,700 25% 460 208 18% 269 11% 82 7% 1.94 47% 2 Highway 69 North of Weekday 4,602 93% 322 1,404 31% 1,354 26% 800 17% 1.71 41% Parry Sound Sunday 8,512 93% 328 4,364 51% 698 6% 259 3% 2.06 38% 3 Highway 11 South of Weekday 8,184 97% 155 1,318 16% 4,017 39% 893 11% 1.58 69% North Bay Sunday 8,312 94% 195 2,874 35% 1,469 9% 255 3% 2.01 57% 4 Highway 17 West of Weekday 3,114 89% 278 621 20% 1,324 35% 287 9% 1.68 53% Mattawa Sunday 3,603 87% 351 1,266 35% 404 7% 111 3% 2.02 40% Total Gateway Weekda 88% Locations3 y 18,490 211 5,505 32% 476 2% 97 1% 1.54 59% Sunday 25,127 80% 263 5,065 23% 1,275 2% 204 1% 1.93 49% SUMMER 2012 Gateway Locations 2A Highway 69 N. of Sunday 8,950 95% 370 5,505 62% 476 4% 97 1% 2.41 25% Parry Sound 3 Highway 11 South of Sunday 9,872 97% 245 5,065 51% 1,275 5% 204 2% 2.16 40% North Bay Interior Locations 5 Highway 11 & 17 West Weekday 4,090 83% 522 1,192 29% 1,194 24% 711 17% 1.84 56% of Nipigon Sunday 3,566 82% 446 1,408 39% 841 12% 229 6% 2.09 53% 6 Highway 17 West of Weekday 9,924 95% 208 3,242 33% 3,686 29% 931 9% 1.78 61% Sudbury Saturday 9,781 97% 312 6,159 63% 1,422 6% 294 3% 2.32 41% Sunday 11,000 90% 243 5,315 48% 1,500 6% 283 3% 2.21 52% Notes: 1 Straight-line distance from trip origin to survey station plus straight-line distance from survey station to destination 2 At this location the survey data were expanded to the sum of Ontario-registered vehicles only: 1,191 weekday vehicles and 1,155 Sunday vehicles. 3 This is the direct sum of data at the individual survey stations, which may result in some double-counting of long-distance trips that could pass more than one survey station on; due to the large distances between survey locations and the travel patterns particular to each survey station, this double-counting is very low. Expanded data totals sum to 17,091 on weekdays and 21,582 on Sundays due to Station 1 expansion to Ontario- registered vehicles only.

Recreation/vacation trips are the main component of travel especially on Sundays. All survey locations except for Station 5, Highway 11 & 17 west of Nipigon, had higher passenger vehicle volumes on Sundays than on weekdays.

Across survey locations, roughly 40 to 60% of the trips made were made monthly or more.

28 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

3.2 Trip Purposes

The survey questionnaire asked about activities at the origin and destination of the observed trip. Activities were ranked to assign an overall trip purpose for this summary.

Exhibit 3.2 is a bar chart of trips by survey trip purpose, survey season, day and direction.

At all locations, trip volumes by trip purpose are roughly balanced by direction over the course of the day on weekdays. The same is somewhat true on Sundays, with the following exceptions, which indicate in large part the end of weekend trips that were made in the opposite direction on a Friday or Saturday:

 Station 1, Highway 17 at the Ontario-Manitoba border (fall) has more personal business/social and recreation/vacation trips returning east toward Ontario on Sunday (the larger component of travel was the vehicles returning west to Manitoba based on licence plate observations);

 Station 2, Highway 69 north of Parry Sound, had about 1,500 more hunting, fishing, or recreation/vacation trips southbound toward central and Southwestern Ontario than northbound on the fall Sunday; and

 Station 6, Highway 17 west of Sudbury, had over 1,000 more Sunday cottage/camp trips travelling east toward Sudbury and beyond than westbound (many of these representing the return trip home to urban centres); also, slightly more cottage trips were made eastbound from Sudbury and beyond on the Saturday.

The survey stations close to Northern Ontario’s large urban centres also have a considerable volume of work trips. Medical trips are also notable at all locations, especially weekdays.

29 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.2: Provincial Highway Trip Purposes by Location, Direction, and Survey Period

Station 3 Highway 11 South of North Bay Fall WEEKDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Fall SUNDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Summer SUNDAY-Northbound -Southbound

Station 4 Highway 17 West of Mattawa Fall WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Fall SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound GATEWAY LOCATIONS

Station 5 Highway 11 & 17 West of Nipigon INTERIOR LOCATIONS Summer WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Station 6 Highway 17 West of Sudbury Summer WEEKDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SATURDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

Summer SUNDAY-Eastbound -Westbound

30 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.3 shows trip length distributions for traffic across all four gateway locations in fall 2011, and includes trip length distributions for weekdays vs. Sundays and for total trips as well as for select trip purposes. Trip lengths in this report are straight-line distances between origin and survey station, and survey station and destination, and therefore are lower than actual driving distances.

Not surprisingly, there are more longer trips (100 km or more) on Sundays, mostly personal business/social and recreation/vacation – which share very similar trip distributions – and fewer shorter trips. Among the longest trips 1,000 km or more, which make up just a few hundred daily trips, there are approximately equal numbers of trips on weekdays and Sundays.

The large majority of work/business trips at these locations tend to be under 100 km on weekday; there is only a small fraction of these shorter work trips on weekends, though among the longest work trip distances the volumes are similar on weekdays and Sundays.

The most common trip lengths on weekends are in the order of 200 to 400 km, 400 km being approximately the distance between Ottawa and North Bay, or between Toronto and Sudbury.

Exhibit 3.4 shows similar trip length information for Station 6, Highway 17 west of Sudbury, for three days: weekday, Saturday and Sunday. This location was surveyed on all three days so that differences in tourism travel patterns could be identified, especially between weekend days. The trip length distributions in this exhibit are not directly comparable to those in Exhibit 3.3 because of the different location and different travel patterns, for example more trips in the 100 to 200 km range, relating to travel between Elliot Lake or Manitoulin Island and Sudbury.

In terms of total traffic, Sunday has more total traffic volumes, and higher peak directional volumes of traffic which reflect traffic returning toward Sudbury in the afternoon (Appendix B). In terms of the longest travel distances, the Saturday has about 50% more trips over 500 km than the Sunday (1,800 vs. 1,200). This represents Ontario-registered vehicles only; the previous chapter showed that there were slightly more cross-border vacation trips in US-registered vehicles on Saturdays vs. Sundays as well. Travellers starting longer vacations as opposed to weekend trips, or those traveling longer distances for the weekend may decide to drive on Saturdays compared to Friday nights, and Saturdays are often the change-over days for one-week cottage rentals in Northern Ontario. In terms of transportation infrastructure planning, analysis of Sunday travel would be more of interest due to its higher overall travel volumes and increased load on the system, though in terms of understanding more fully the amount of long- distance tourism travel in an area, Saturday has more long-distance travellers.

31 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.3: Trip Length Distribution by Trip Purpose and Day of Week, Gateway Survey Locations, Fall 2011

6,000 Total Trips Weekday Sunday 5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000 Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km) 2,500 Work/Business Trips Weekday Sunday 2,000

1,500

1,000

500 Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km) 2,500 Personal Business/Social Weekday Sunday 2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km) 2,500 Total Recreation/Vacation Weekday Sunday 2,000 (with Hunting and Fishing) 1,500

1,000

500

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

32 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.4: Trip Length Distribution by Trip Purpose and Day of Week, Station 6 – Highway 17 West of Sudbury, Summer 2012

3,500 Total Trips 3,000 2,500 Weekday Saturday Sunday 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

1,600 Work/Business Trips Weekday Saturday Sunday 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

1,600 Personal Business/Social 1,400 1,200 Weekday Saturday Sunday 1,000 800 600 400 200

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

1,600 Total Recreation/Vacation 1,400 (with Cottage/Camp and Campground) 1,200 Weekday 1,000 Saturday 800 Sunday 600 400 200

Daily Volume Daily 0 <50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-1,000 1,000+ Length Bin (km)

33 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

3.3 Origin-Destination Flows

This section discusses the travel patterns observed at the four gateway and two internal survey locations in 2011 and 2012.

A series of maps showing conceptual daily origin-destination flows is provided in the following pages, as follows:

 Exhibit 3.5 and Exhibit 3.6 show travel flows for the Northwestern Ontario gateway location - Station 1 at the Ontario-Manitoba border - for a fall 2011 weekday and Sunday, respectively;

 Exhibit 3.7 through Exhibit 3.9 show travel flows at the Northeastern Ontario gateways locations (Stations 2, 2A, 3 and 4); Exhibit 3.7 and Exhibit 3.8 for a fall 2011 weekday and Sunday, respectively, and Exhibit 3.9 for a summer 2012 Sunday;

 Exhibit 3.10 and Exhibit 3.11 show travel flows at Highway 11 and 17 west of Nipigon for a summer 2012 weekday and Sunday, respectively; and

 Exhibit 3.12 through Exhibit 3.14 show travel flows at Highway 17 west of Sudbury for a summer 2012 weekday, Saturday and Sunday.

Drawing from these flow patterns as well as other information provided in this chapter and from detailed summary information in the appendices, a description of travel at the provincial highway survey locations is provided below.

34 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.5: Travel Flows at Northwestern Ontario Gateway: Ontario-Manitoba Border – Fall 2011 WEEKDAY

Legend FLOWS EXPANDED TO ONTARIO- REGISTERED VEHICLES ONLY 1,000 trips 500 trips OTHER KENORA 100 trips DISTRICT EASTBOUND 1 WESTBOUND OTHER MANITOBA, WESTERN CANADA

RAINY RIVER DISTRICT 61 HWY 17 AT ON-MB BORDER Eastbound: 582 trips 752 km avg. trip length* NORTHEASTERN Westbound: ONTARIO 609 trips 532 km avg. trip length*

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

35 OCTOBER 30, 2013 61

IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.6: Travel Flows at Northwestern Ontario Gateway: Ontario-Manitoba Border – Fall 2011 SUNDAY

Legend FLOWS EXPANDED TO ONTARIO- 1,000 trips REGISTERED VEHICLES ONLY 500 trips OTHER KENORA DISTRICT 100 trips 1 EASTBOUND WESTBOUND OTHER MANITOBA, WESTERN CANADA

RAINY RIVER DISTRICT 61

HWY 17 AT ON-MB BORDER Eastbound: 710 trips 426 km avg. trip length* Westbound: 446 trips 583 km avg. trip length*

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

36 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.7: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Fall 2011 WEEKDAY

Legend

2,500 trips

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND 1,000 trips WESTERN CANADA 3 - HWY 11 SOUTH OF 100 trips NORTH BAY Toward Northern Northbound: Ontario 4,984 trips From Northern 61 235 km avg. trip length* Ontario Southbound: OTHER NORTHEASTERN 4,889 trips ONTARIO 255 km avg. trip length* 4 - HWY 17 WEST OF MATTAWA Eastbound: OTHER 1,554 trips NIPISSING 265 km avg. trip length* NORTH Westbound: BAY 1,560 trips 322 km avg. trip length* 3 4 OTHER EASTERN MANITOULIN CANADA 2

PARRY EASTERN 2 - HWY 69 NORTH OF SOUND ONTARIO PARRY SOUND DISTRICT Northbound: 2,201 trips 401 km avg. trip length* EASTERN ONTARIO Southbound: 2,401 trips 268 km avg. trip length* SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

37 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.8: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Fall 2011 SUNDAY

Legend

2,500 trips

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND 1,000 trips WESTERN CANADA 3 - HWY 11 SOUTH OF 100 trips NORTH BAY Toward Northern Northbound: Ontario 4,212 trips From Northern 61 208 km avg. trip length* Ontario Southbound: OTHER NORTHEASTERN 4,100 trips ONTARIO 182 km avg. trip length 4 - HWY 17 WEST OF MATTAWA Eastbound: OTHER 1,735 trips NIPISSING 347 km avg. trip length* NORTH Westbound: BAY 1,868 trips 355 km avg. trip length* 3 4 OTHER EASTERN MANITOULIN CANADA 2

PARRY 2 - HWY 69 NORTH OF SOUND EASTERN ONTARIO PARRY SOUND DISTRICT Northbound: 3,390 trips 334 km avg. trip length* EASTERN ONTARIO Southbound: 5,122 trips 324 km avg. trip length* SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

38 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.9: Northeastern Ontario Gateways – Summer 2012 SUNDAY

Legend

2,500 trips

OTHER NIPISSING NORTH BAY

3 EASTERN 2A MANITOULIN ONTARIO

PARRY 2 - HWY 69 NORTH OF SOUND PARRY SOUND DISTRICT Northbound: 4,253 trips 388 km avg. trip length* EASTERN ONTARIO Southbound: 4,696 trips 345 km avg. trip length* SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

39 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.10: Travel Flows at Highway 11/17 West of Nipigon – Summer 2012 WEEKDAY

Eastbound: Legend 2,045 trips 469 km avg. trip length* 2,500 trips Westbound: 1,000 trips MANITOBA 2,046 trips 570 km avg. trip length* 100 trips EASTBOUND THUNDER BAY WESTBOUND OTHER DISTRICT WESTERN CANADA RAINY RIVER - OTHER DISTRICT 5

OTHER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO

ALGOMA

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

40 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.11: Travel Flows at Highway 11/17 West of Nipigon – Summer 2012 SUNDAY

HWY 11/17 WEST OF NIPIGON Legend Eastbound: 1,699 trips 2,500 trips 407 km avg. trip length* Westbound: 1,000 trips MANITOBA 1,868 trips 100 trips 482 km avg. trip length* EASTBOUND WESTBOUND THUNDER BAY OTHER DISTRICT WESTERN CANADA RAINY RIVER - OTHER DISTRICT 5

OTHER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO

ALGOMA

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

41 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.12: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 WEEKDAY

Legend

2,500 trips 1,000 trips 100 trips EASTBOUND WESTBOUND

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

HWY 17 WEST OFSUDBURY Eastbound: 4,966 trips 215 km avg. trip length* GREATER Westbound: SUDBURY 4,958 trips 225 km avg. trip length* ALGOMA 6

MANITOULIN

EASTERN ONTARIO

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

42 OCTOBER 30, 2013 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.13: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 SATURDAY

Legend

2,500 trips 1,000 trips 100 trips EASTBOUND WESTBOUND

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO HWY 17 WEST OFSUDBURY

Eastbound: 4,498 trips 258 km avg. trip length* Westbound: 5,282 trips GREATER 358 km avg. trip length* SUDBURY

ALGOMA 6

MANITOULIN

EASTERN ONTARIO

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

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Exhibit 3.14: Travel Flows on Highway 17 West of Sudbury – Summer 2012 SUNDAY

Legend

2,500 trips 1,000 trips 100 trips EASTBOUND WESTBOUND

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO HWY 17 WEST OFSUDBURY Eastbound: 6,565 trips 228 km avg. trip length* Westbound: GREATER 4,436 trips SUDBURY 266 km avg. trip length*

ALGOMA 6

MANITOULIN

EASTERN ONTARIO

SOUTHERN ONTARIO

Note: * Straight-line distance from origin to survey location plus straight-line distance from survey location to destination

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Northern Ontario Gateway Flows

Northwestern Ontario Gateway Station 1: Highway 17 at the Ontario-Manitoba border (Fall 2011 Weekday and Sunday) At this location, there was about twice as much Sunday traffic in the westbound direction toward Manitoba as eastbound toward Ontario: 3,100 westbound, of which less than 450 vehicles were Ontario-registered, and 1,520 eastbound, of which an estimated 715 vehicles were Ontario-registered. Most of the remaining vehicles were Manitoba registered and could not be surveyed. Anecdotally, it is known that it is fairly common for residents of the Winnipeg area to visit cottages/camps in Ontario; the Sunday trips would have had a large component of Manitoba residents returning from their Ontario camps/cottages for the weekend.

On weekdays, the proportion of Ontario-registered vehicles approached half of traffic at the Ontario-Manitoba border. Many of these trips would have been by residents of the Kenora area making use of the services in Winnipeg, the largest city in relatively close proximity, including trips for business and medical purposes, the Winnipeg airport, etc.

The average trip length at this location was over 500 km on weekends, among the longest among the survey stations.

On the Ontario side of the trip, about three-quarters of the trips were to/from Kenora District, including the communities of Kenora, Dryden and Red Lake. The remaining trips continue beyond, e.g. to Thunder Bay, Sudbury and Southern Ontario.

To the west, trips mostly started/ended in the Winnipeg area, with some to/from other parts of Manitoba, and over 10% starting or ending west of Manitoba.

Northeastern Ontario Gateways Two of the three gateways to Northeastern Ontario are north-south routes: Highway 69 south of Sudbury and Highway 11 south of North Bay. At these locations the Ontario-registered vehicles accounted for 93% or more of passenger-vehicle traffic. The third gateway location is Highway 17, surveyed west of Mattawa. At this location, Ontario licence plates represent the majority of traffic at 87 to 89% of traffic; the remaining being mostly Quebec-registered vehicles that could not be surveyed.

All three locations have comparable volumes of long-distance travel flows in and out of Northeastern Ontario – with Highway 69 having the highest long-distance flows. On a fall Sunday, Station 2 on Highway 69 had 6,800 passenger vehicles and Station 3 on Highway 11 had 3,500 passenger vehicles travelling between Northern Ontario and Southwestern or Central Ontario, while Station 4 on Highway 17 had 2,700 passenger vehicles travelling between Northern Ontario and Eastern Ontario.

Varying amounts of shorter-distance local traffic were also part of the travel mix at the three locations.

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Stations 2 and 2A: Highway 69 North of Parry Sound (Fall 2011 Weekday and Sunday, Summer 2012 Sunday) Total passenger vehicle traffic volumes at Station 2 were about 4,600 on a fall weekday and almost double on Sunday at 8,500. Summer Sunday passenger vehicle traffic totalled nearly 9,000 at Station 2A, some 50 km to the north of Station 2.

A large component of the traffic at Stations 2 and 2A is traffic is travel between Southwestern or Central Ontario and Northern Ontario: 3,100 vehicles on a fall weekday, 6,800 vehicles on a fall Sunday (4,100 of which were southbound), and 7,100 on a summer Sunday. The Highway 69 gateway has the largest long- distance travel volumes of the surveyed locations, and average trip lengths were in excess of 300 km.

North of the survey location, travel origins/destinations are focused on Sudbury (more than half of trips), while Sault Ste. Marie, Elliot Lake, Espanola, and Manitoulin Island locations, Timmins (via Highway 144), and several provincial parks between Sudbury and Parry Sound, most notably Killbear Provincial Park.

South of the survey location, trip origins and destinations included much of southern Ontario, particularly Simcoe County, the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Wellington-Waterloo-Brant, London and Woodstock.

The survey location was moved further north in summer 2012; this captured slightly more trips to/from Sudbury and slightly fewer trips to/from Southwestern and Central Ontario. Summer Sunday travel patterns are similar to the fall Sunday patterns, with a higher frequency of trips to/from Killarney Provincial Park and the North Bay-Nipissing area.

Station 3: Highway 11 South of North Bay (Fall 2011 Weekday and Sunday, Summer 2012 Sunday) After Station 6, this survey location has the second-highest volumes of the survey locations due to a significant volume of short-distance trips to/from North Bay, an important regional centre for employment, shopping, and health care, mixed in with longer-distance flows. Daily passenger vehicle traffic totals are as follows:

 8,200 on a fall weekday, which includes 2,100 vehicle trips to/from Southwestern and Central Ontario;

 only slightly higher at 8,300 on a fall Sunday, with 3,500 trips to/from Southwestern/Central Ontario; and

 9,900 trips on a summer Sunday, with 5,000 trips to/from Southwestern and Central Ontario.

Average trip lengths at this location were in the order of 200 km. This average trip length is shorter than on Highway 69 due to the higher volumes of short- distance trips between North Bay and a number of communities along Highway 11 south of North Bay, including Sundridge, South River and Powassan on Highway 11; these are part of Parry Sound District, which spans both Highway 11 and Highway 69 south of North Bay and Sudbury, respectively.

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Further south of the survey location, origins/destinations origins/destinations include Muskoka, Simcoe, Barrie, the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Wellington- Waterloo-Brant, and other locations throughout Southern Ontario.

North of the survey location, North Bay was a major trip origin/destination at two- thirds of trips on weekdays though a slightly (slightly less on Sundays), followed by locations along Highways 11 and 101 in Nipissing, Timiskaming and Cochrane Districts, as well as locations in Nipissing along Highways 17 and 94.

Station 4: Highway 17 West of Mattawa (Fall 2011 Weekday and Sunday) Average trip lengths at this location ranged from 265 km to 335 km. Compared with the other two Northeastern gateway locations on Highways 11 and 69, total weekday traffic at this survey location is much lower and Sunday volumes are less than half; however, the volume of long-distance traffic is comparable. Daily passenger vehicle volumes total 3,100 on a fall weekday, 1,400 of which were to/from Eastern Ontario, especially the Ottawa area, and 3,600 on a fall Sunday, with 2,700 trips to/from Eastern Ontario.

On weekdays, nearly half the travel in both directions occurs between Nipissing District east of the survey location and the rest of Northern Ontario, especially the North Bay area; on Sundays, this travel flow accounts for less than one-fifth of the traffic. While North Bay and the rest of Nipissing account for most of the traffic origins/destinations, other common trip origins/destinations include Sudbury, Manitoulin and Algoma to the west via Highway 17, and Timiskaming and Cochrane to the north via Highway 11.

On the weekday and Sunday, travel to/from Quebec and Atlantic Canada by Ontario-registered vehicles accounted for 5 to 7% of the trips. Presumably a significant portion of the 11 to 13% of traffic not registered in Ontario and not captured in the survey would also travel to/from Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Interior Northern Ontario Flows Station 5: Highway 11 & 17 West of Nipigon (Summer 2012 Weekday and Sunday) This location serves vehicles travelling very long distances on cross-Ontario trips, being on the only highway segment between Northeastern and Northwestern Ontario. Trip lengths are very long, averaging over 500 km on a summer weekday and 450 km on a summer Sunday.

Weekday passenger vehicle traffic totalled about 4,100 vehicles, while Sunday volumes were slightly lower at 3,600 vehicles. This is the only survey station where traffic volumes were higher on a weekday than on the Sunday. As was discussed in Section 3.2, very long-distance trips can be equally likely to take place on a Sunday as on a weekday. The weekday traffic includes similar long- distance traffic as the Sunday, as well as additional shorter-distance traffic comprising work and medical trips to/from the Thunder Bay area.

West of the survey location, the majority of trips are to/from the City of Thunder Bay and communities along Highway 11 & 17 (e.g. Dorion and Red Rock); though another 15 to 18% of trips continue beyond to various Northwestern Ontario and Western Canada locations. East of the survey location, trip origins/destinations are focused on Nipigon and locations along Highway 17:

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Geraldton, Longlac, etc. About 1,200 weekday and 1,000 Sunday trips (almost 30% of total) continue beyond to locations throughout Northeastern Ontario and Southern Ontario.

Station 6: Highway 17 West of Sudbury (Summer 2012 Weekday, Saturday, Sunday) At 9,900 weekday passenger vehicles and 9,800 to 11,000 weekend passenger vehicles, the volumes at this location were highest among all locations surveyed in the study. Common trip origins and destinations include Sudbury – the largest urban centre in Northern Ontario – and Manitoulin Island – a popular recreation location. There are also significant flows to/from as far as Sault Ste. Marie.

This survey station is the one location that included three surveys days in the same season - weekday, Saturday and Sunday - for comparison of travel patterns across all three days.

Travel patterns vary significantly between the weekday, Saturday and Sunday at this location. On weekdays, nearly half the travel in both directions occurs between points in the City of Sudbury and Sudbury District. On weekends, this travel flow accounts for closer to 30% of the traffic. Conversely, travel between Manitoulin and Algoma and the rest of Ontario increases from approximately 40% of the weekday trips to 60% of the Saturday and Sunday travel.

Average travel distances were 200 km for the summer weekday, almost 250 km on the summer Sunday, and longer still at over 300 km for the summer Saturday. Travel flows as far as Southwestern and Central Ontario make up 1,400 trips (14% of flows) on weekdays, 2,000 trips (18% of flows) on Sundays, and 2,200 trips (23% of flows) on Saturdays.

Survey flows at this survey station provide insight into two transportation planning questions: the potential additional market for the Chi-Cheemaun Ferry, and potential long-distance travel demand for Sultan Road improvements.

The volume of trips between Manitoulin Island and Southwestern and Central Ontario passing through Station 6 on Highway 17, as well as Station 2 and 2A on Highway 69 south of Sudbury, represent the potential additional market for the Chi-Cheemaun Ferry, which operates between Tobermory and Manitoulin Island and offers a potentially shorter-distance alternative to the Highway 400/69/17 route. The total vehicles driving between Southwestern/Central Ontario and Manitoulin through Station 2 based on the survey results were as follows:

 About 110 vehicles on a fall weekday (Station 2);

 About 510 vehicles on a fall Sunday (Station 2);

 About 580 vehicles on a summer Sunday (average of 801 vehicles at Station 2, and 365 on a different Sunday at Station 6); and

 About 340 vehicles on a summer Saturday (Station 6).

Highway 17 is the main travel route between the Sudbury area and Wawa and beyond. Some travellers use an alternative route between Sudbury and Wawa that includes Highway 144, Highway 101, and Sultan Road, an undeveloped,

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private road linking the two highways. Should this road be upgraded to a provincial route providing an alternative continuous provincial road connection, the additional potential travel demand based on current conditions can be determined from travel patterns at Station 6 as the number of vehicles passing Station 6 whose trip is between Sudbury and the Wawa area and points beyond (as well as points along Highway 101 east of Wawa). The totals of these flows are 400 weekday trips (4% of Station 6 traffic), 790 Saturday trips (8%) and 560 Sunday trips (5%).

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4. Summary

This report described the results of the Northern Ontario passenger vehicle survey conducted at a total of 4 Canada-US border crossings and 6 provincial highway locations in early fall 2011 and in summer 2012. The survey data includes 8,714 border surveys representing 27% of Northern Ontario border traffic overall, and 9,533 provincial highway trip records, representing 10% of the sum of passenger vehicle traffic at the survey locations, allowing for a very strong basis for travel pattern analysis.

Northern Ontario represents a very large study area, measuring over 800,000 square kilometres or 87% of Ontario’s land area. The driving distance between Mattawa, near the southeastern limit of Northern Ontario, and the Ontario- Manitoba border is over 1,700 km. Northern Ontario’s Census population in 2011 was 733,000 people, not including a portion of the population in incompletely enumerated aboriginal communities, and as an important recreational destination for other regions, the seasonal population of Northern Ontario is anticipated to be significantly greater than the Census figures.

Key findings from the Northern Ontario passenger vehicle survey results are listed below.

1. The provincial highway “gateway” locations show strong connection between Northern Ontario and other regions.

All three Northeastern Ontario “gateway” locations show very significant levels of relatively long-distance travel flows between Northeastern Ontario and Southern or Eastern Ontario: 6,800 vehicle trips on Highway 69 south of Sudbury (Station 2), 3,500 vehicle trips on Highway 11 south of North Bay (Station 3), and 2,700 vehicle trips on Highway 17 east of North Bay (Station 4) on a fall Sunday.

In Northwestern Ontario at the Ontario-Manitoba border, some 3,500 trips are made on a fall Sunday by Manitoba-registered vehicles to/from Northwestern Ontario – about three times greater than the number of Ontario residents visiting west on Sundays.

2. Northern Ontario’s urban centres are common origins or destinations for passenger vehicle travel in Northern Ontario.

Provincial highway survey locations near Northern Ontario’s urban areas showed significant short-distance travel flows toward the urban centres for work, medical, shopping and personal business/social purposes. There were significant traffic flows for recreational purposes by residents of the urban areas to the more remote Northern Ontario locations. The following indicates the prevalence of trips to/from urban centres at specific survey stations:

 At Highway 69 south of Sudbury (Station 2) there were 2,100 trips to/from Sudbury on a fall weekday (46% of trips) and 3,500 on a fall Sunday (41% of trips);

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 At Highway 11 south of North Bay (Station 3), there were 5,600 trips to/from North Bay on a fall weekday (68% of trips) and 4,900 trips to/from North Bay on a fall Sunday (59% of trips);  Travel flows on Highway 17 west of Sudbury (Station 6) included 7,500 trips to/from Sudbury (75% of trips) on a summer weekday, 7,800 trips to/from Sudbury (71% of trips) on a summer Sunday and 6,100 trips to/from Sunday (63% of trips); in addition, 800 to 1,100 trips at this station were to/from Sault Ste. Marie; and  At Highway 11&17 west of Nipigon (Station 5), there were 1,900 passenger vehicle trips to/from Thunder Bay on a summer weekday (47% of trips) and 2,100 trips to/from Thunder Bay on a summer Sunday (59% of trips).

In the more westerly parts of Northwestern Ontario, the distance to Winnipeg is less than the distance to the regional centre of Thunder Bay, and Northern Ontario residents frequently travel to Winnipeg for shopping, business, and services including air travel and health care (there are some 1,000 daily passenger trips by Ontario-registered vehicles to/from Manitoba, mostly in the Winnipeg area).

3. Cross-border travel flows indicate that Northern Ontario residents have strong connections to US border towns.

Flows across the four Northern Ontario border crossings totalled 9,200 on a fall weekday and 11,100 on a fall Sunday. The Sault Ste. Marie border accounts for more than half of these crossings.

Overall about three of every four vehicles crossing the border were Canadian- registered vehicles. Enjoying the benefits of a relatively strong Canadian dollar and the variety of shops and services across the border in the US, residents of Northern Ontario’s border towns and surrounding area make frequent, presumably same-day trips across the border for shopping, casinos, golf and other entertainment. Many make these trips at least weekly. Northern Ontario residents also make relatively frequent use of parcel service and fill their vehicles with cheaper fuel in US border towns. Similar short-distance, high- frequency trips by US residents into Canada are rare. This imbalance of cross- border flows has implications on the local economy.

A degree of social connectivity between Canadian and US border towns is noted in that cross-border trips to visit friends and relatives are made in both directions.

4. Cross-border vacation traffic is more balanced between Canadian and US residents than most trip purposes, but is a much smaller component of Northern Ontario cross-border traffic.

Total vacation trips across the Northern Ontario borders number in the hundreds of vehicles daily in the fall in comparable volumes by Canadians vs. Americans, and represent about 11 to 14% of total Northern Ontario cross-border trips including hunting and fishing trips in the fall, and a higher proportion including camps/cottages and campgrounds in the summer.

Cross-border fishing trips are almost exclusively made by US-registered vehicles, numbering roughly 300 to 500 vehicles daily in the fall. Cross-border

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hunting trips are very rare, as equipment may be hard to bring across the border, though the hunting season may not have been in full swing at the time of the fall surveys.

Given the geographic location of the Northwestern Ontario border crossings to the west of the significant geographic barrier of Lake Superior, virtually all flows across the Northwestern Ontario borders involve trips to or from Northwestern Ontario. Origins and destination of travel flows across the Sault Ste. Marie border are somewhat more dispersed.

5. The Northern Ontario passenger vehicle survey provided insights into differences in travel patterns by day-of-week.

The Northern Ontario passenger vehicle surveys were conducted on weekdays, Sundays and/or Saturdays at the survey locations, allowing travel patterns by day of week to be compared directly and providing a more solid basis for transportation planning purposes. With the high proportions of recreation/vacation travel at each site, especially weekend trips, Sunday traffic has the highest travel demands. Saturday traffic tends to have more of the longest-distance trips (e.g. greater than 500 km) than Sundays, though this is a lower proportion of total traffic than the shorter-distance weekend travel. Work trips and trips for medical purposes are of course more common on weekdays; where these take place on weekend days they tend to be more infrequent, longer-distance trips.

6. Surveys conducted in early fall 2011 captured lower but comparable overall traffic levels compared to summer 2012. While there are similarities in travel patterns across seasons at each location, in general there are fewer long-distance recreation/ vacation trips and more short-distance recreation, social and shopping trips and more work trips in fall than in summer.

The fall surveys took place in mid to late September 2011 and captured significant volumes of recreational/vacation traffic. Three of these locations were surveyed again on summer Sundays so that levels of these types of trips could be compared across seasons: the Sault Ste. Marie crossing, Highway 69 north of Parry Sound, and Highway 11 south of North Bay.

At Sault Ste. Marie, there were more than twice as many vacation trips across the border on a summer Sunday than on the early fall weekdays, though these numbered in the hundreds. However, there were more shorter-distance recreational trips (presumably same-day or weekend trips) in the fall compared to summer at this location, especially by Canadian travellers.

Recreation/vacation travel (including hunting, fishing, campgrounds and cottages/camps) was up to about 50% higher on Highway 11 south of North Bay (Station 3); about equal in the southbound direction at Highway 69 north of Parry Sound (Station 2/2A) and about two-thirds higher in the northbound direction (due in part to the closer proximity to Sudbury). Offsetting this increase to a degree, fall Sundays had slightly larger proportions of other types of trips: work, school, personal business/social trips compared to summer Sundays.

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