TRANSPORTATION

Final Report

The Preparation of a Northern Ontario Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Origin-Destination Survey Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Travel Profile

Submitted to Ministry of Transportation, Ontario by IBI Group October 30, 2013

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... ES.1

1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Study Background ...... 1 1.2 Report Purpose and Organization ...... 1 1.3 Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Program ...... 2 1.4 Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Background ...... 2

2. Overview of Commercial Vehicle Travel ...... 4 2.1 Truck Traffic Levels ...... 5 2.1 Vehicle Styles ...... 9 2.2 Truck Travel Origin-Destination Flows ...... 12 Origin-Destination Flows by Number of Trucks 13 Origin-Destination Flows by Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled 16 Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Value and Weight 18 2.3 Travel Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Type ...... 20 Commodity Origins and Destinations by Number of Trucks 21 Commodity Origins and Destinations by Commodity Value 22 Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Type 27 2.4 Data Collection Site Summaries ...... 33

3. International Trade ...... 35

4. Summary and Conclusions ...... 39 4.1 Summary Statistics ...... 39 4.2 Key Findings ...... 39

Appendix A: Origin-Destination Matrices Appendix B: Station Summaries by Data Collection Site

OCTOBER 30, 2013 i IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Table of Contents (continued)

List of Exhibits Exhibit 1.1: Map of Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Data Collection Site (DCS) Locations...... 3

Exhibit 2.1: Summary of Weekly Truck Travel Statistics in Northern Ontario ...... 4 Exhibit 2.2: 2006-2011 Weekly Truck Traffic Volumes and Growth Rates by Highway ...... 6 Exhibit 2.3: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario Roadway Network ...... 7 Exhibit 2.4: Northern Ontario Truck CVS Truck Configuration Distribution by Origin- Destination Flow Type ...... 10 Exhibit 2.5: Northern Ontario CVS Truck/Trailer Body Style Distribution ...... 11 Exhibit 2.6: Trip Summary Statistics by Trip Origin-Destination Type ...... 12 Exhibit 2.7: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario Roadway Network by Trip Type: Internal, Through Trips, and to/from Northern Ontario ...... 14 Exhibit 2.8: Weekly Northern Ontario Trucks Trips by Trip Origin and Destination ...... 15 Exhibit 2.9: Weekly Northern Ontario Truck Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled by Trip Origin and Destination ...... 17 Exhibit 2.10: Total Weekly Commodity Value Transported by Truck in Northern Ontario by Trip Origin and Destination ...... 18 Exhibit 2.11: Total Weekly Commodity Weight Transported by Truck in Northern Ontario by Trip Origin and Destination ...... 19 Exhibit 2.12: Northern Ontario Truck Trip Origins by Commodity Type ...... 23 Exhibit 2.13: Northern Ontario Truck Trip Destinations by Commodity Type ...... 24 Exhibit 2.14: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Origin by Commodity Type ...... 25 Exhibit 2.15: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Destination by Commodity Type ...... 26 Exhibit 2.16: Northern Ontario Truck Flows by Commodity Type and Trip Origin- Destination Type ...... 27 Exhibit 2.17: Table of Northern Ontario Truck Flows by Commodity Type and Trip Origin-Destination Type ...... 28 Exhibit 2.18: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows: Loaded Trucks vs. Empty Trucks ...... 29 Exhibit 2.19: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows by Commodity Type ...... 31 Exhibit 2.20: Trip Length Distribution by Commodity Type (Total Distance Travelled) ...... 33 Exhibit 2.21: : Weekly Commercial Vehicle Travel Summary Statistics by DCS ...... 34

Exhibit 3.1: Weekly International Truck Travel Statistics by Northern Ontario Border Crossing ...... 35 Exhibit 3.2: Weekly International Truck Volumes Using Northern Ontario International Border Crossings ...... 36 Exhibit 3.3: Weekly Trucks Trips by Commodity Carried at Northern Ontario International Border Crossing ...... 38

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ii IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Executive Summary ES.1 Background

The Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) has retained IBI Group to conduct origin-destination surveys of passenger and commercial vehicles at a number of sites in Northern Ontario, including international border crossings and locations along provincial highways. This report presents a Northern Ontario commercial vehicle travel profile based on the results of the Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS) conducted in fall 2011.

The Northern Ontario CVS was conducted at 37 directional Data Collection Sites (DCS), including 8 DCSs at international border crossing sites (4 crossings, 2 directions each) and 28 DCSs (15 unique locations) on provincial highways, between September 12 and November 4, 2011. The 2011 Northern Ontario CVS data includes 5,087 records that have been standardized, validated and expanded. The effective sample of unique trucks passing the survey stations is estimated to be 9.4%, though some shorter-distance trips that would not pass a DCS would not be included. ES.2 Overview

Exhibit ES.1 presents a number of summary statistics describing truck travel in Northern Ontario.

An average of almost 54,000 truck trips per week travel along the Northern Ontario highway network and carry more than half a million tonnes of commodities with an estimated total value of $1.24 billion. The average distance travelled per truck trip is almost 700 km.

Truck Traffic Levels Exhibit ES.2 shows a road network assignment of the trips made by trucks passing through the DCS locations. The black diamonds on this plot are the DCSs. The plot shows how the truck travelling in Northern Ontario use the road network in Ontario and beyond. The exhibit distinguishes travel by four types of truck flows:

 Internal trips, which have both origin and destination in Northern Ontario;

 Trips from Northern Ontario, which start in Northern Ontario but have a destination outside of Northern Ontario;

 Trips to Northern Ontario, which start outside of Northern Ontario but have their destination within Northern Ontario; and

 Through trips, which use the Northern Ontario network but have neither origin nor destination within Northern Ontario and are only using the Northern Ontario road network to pass through.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.1 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES. 1: Summary of Weekly Truck Travel Statistics in Northern Ontario Statistic Value Truck Volumes Total trucks on the Northern Ontario highway network 53,800 Trips internal to Northern Ontario 25,800 Trips to/from Northern Ontario 20,500 Through trips (trucks with neither origin nor destination 7,500 in Northern Ontario) Commodities Carried Total commodity value $1.24 billion Average commodity value per truck $23,000 Total tonnes of cargo transported 555,000 tonnes Average tonnes/truck 10.3 Proportion of empty trucks 41% Trip Distances Average total truck trip distance 670 km Average distance travelled in Ontario 461 km Total truck-kilometres in Ontario 25 million International Trips Number of border-crossing truck trips 4,300 Value of weekly cargo shipped to Canada $42 million Value of weekly cargo shipped to USA $30 million

In Northern Ontario, truck traffic is concentrated on the two Trans-Canada Highway routes, Highways 11 and 17. It can be seen that the further west, the greater is the proportion of through trips. The highest absolute truck volumes are at the gateways connecting with Southern Ontario: both Highway 11 south of North Bay and Highway 400/69 south of Sudbury (where the route connects with Highway 17) have over 10,000 trucks weekly moving to and from Northern Ontario. To the west, truck flow volumes remain fairly steady from Nipigon through to the Ontario-Manitoba border on Highway 17 at about 9,000 weekly trucks

Highways 11 and 17 intersect at North Bay and at Nipigon, the distance between these points by either route being almost equal, at about 700 km. Truck volumes on Highway 11 from the North Bay area through Cochrane and Hearst have increased by roughly one-third since 2006, while truck traffic volumes on Highway 17 have decreased slightly. Truck traffic volumes along Highway 17 and Highway 11 north of Lake Superior are now roughly equal at 5,000 to 6,000 weekly trucks.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.2 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.2: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario Roadway Network by Trip Type: Internal, Through Trips, and to/from Northern Ontario

Internal North ON Trips To Northern ON only From Northern ON only Through Trips

Kilometres

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.3 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

While one would expect vehicle volumes to be roughly balanced weekly by direction, several hundred more heavy trucks can be observed travelling northbound/westbound through Northern Ontario than eastbound/southbound at most locations in 2011. This directional imbalance has been increasing over the past decade. In Northwestern Ontario from Red Rock westerly, commercial vehicle growth has been positive in the westbound direction but has decreased in the eastbound direction. This is due mainly to a lack of balance in through trips. It appears that many truck trips from Southern Canada return via the US, perhaps picking up return loads in the US Midwest, to take advantage of lower fuel prices or because border formalities are less onerous for empty vehicles.

Vehicle Types A variety of truck vehicle types can be observed on Northern Ontario roads. Exhibit ES.3 shows the configuration of tracks using the network. Heavy trucks with trailers total 60% of total truck configurations in the Northern Ontario CVS. Among tractor-trailer combinations for trips to/from and within Northern Ontario, 16 to 21% include two trailers, which is a much higher proportion than typically seen in the rest of the province; among tractor-trailer combinations on through trips, only 7.3% are two-trailer combinations.

Exhibit ES. 3: Northern Ontario Truck CVS Truck Configuration Distribution by Origin-Destination Flow Type Trips Internal to To or from Northern Northern Configuration Ontario Ontario Through Total Number of Truck Trips Straight Truck Only 15,402 3,992 208 19,602 Straight Truck & Trailer 924 746 95 1,765 Total Straight Trucks 16,326 4,738 303 21,367 Tractor Only 401 286 74 760 Tractor & 1 Trailer 7,638 12,413 6,630 26,681 Tractor & 2 Trailers 1,397 3,035 519 4,951 Total Tractor-Trailer Trucks 9,436 15,733 7,223 32,392 Total 25,762 20,471 7,526 53,759 Percentage of Truck Trips Straight Truck Only 59.8% 19.5% 2.8% 36.5% Straight Truck & Trailer 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 3.3% Total Straight Trucks 63.4% 23.1% 4.0% 39.7% Tractor Only 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% Tractor & 1 Trailer 29.6% 60.6% 88.1% 49.6% Tractor & 2 Trailers 5.4% 14.8% 6.9% 9.2% Total Tractor-Trailer Trucks 36.6% 76.9% 96.0% 60.3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

The distribution of Northern Ontario truck body styles is shown in Exhibit ES.4. Considering through trips only, the proportions of body styles are quite different from the Northern Ontario average, with van style trucks/trailers much more common at 71% of trucks compared to 39% of trucks overall.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.4 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.4 Northern Ontario CVS Truck/Trailer Body Style Distribution

Animal Carrier Cement Mixer 6% Chip 11% Container Carrier 11% Dump Flatbed Float Hopper Mobile Machines 12% Tractor Only 27% Piggyback Refuse Carrier Stake/Rack 5% Tanker Utility 4% 6% Van - Non refrigerated 9% Van - Refrigerated Van - Soft Sided Vehicle Carrier Truck Travel Origins and Destinations Exhibit ES.5 summarizes weekly commercial vehicle travel for trucks using the Northern Ontario roadway network in terms of truck volumes, vehicle-kilometres of travel in Ontario, and commodity value. Exhibit ES.2 is a graphic of these trips.

Exhibit ES.5: Trip Summary Statistics by Trip Type

Truck Trips Vehicle-Kilometres in Ontario Commodity Value % of Total (km, % of Average/ Total ($, % of Average/ Trip Type Total Total 1,000s) Total Truck (km) millions) Total Truck ($) Internal 25,762 48%3,860 16% 150 256 21% 9,934 Other from Northern Ontario 9,590 18% 3,680 15% 384 188 15% 19,633 Other to Northern Ontario 10,880 20% 4,520 18% 415 308 25% 29,300 Through trips 7,526 14% 12,800 51% 1,701 485 39% 64,456 Total 53,759 100% 24,800 100% 461 1,237 100% 23,015

In terms of truck volumes, almost half of the 54,000 trucks passing DCSs in Northern Ontario make trips that are internal to Northern Ontario. Approximately 14% make through trips, using the Northern Ontario network only to travel between points outside of Northern Ontario. Another 38% are trips that to/from Northern Ontario only. The average through trip involves 1,700 km of travel through Ontario, while truck trips internal to Northern Ontario travel are just 150 km long on average.

On average trucks in Northern Ontario carry 10,300 kg of cargo with an average commodity value of $23,000, working out to an average unit value of $2.23 per kilogram. Among trucks carrying loads only, the average commodity weight is 17,400 kg and an average commodity value of $38,700. There is a considerable difference in the values of cargo for the different trip flow types. The greatest commodity value is found on through trips with an average value of some $71,200 per truck; internal Northern Ontario truck trips have the lowest average value at $10,000.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.5 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Commercial interactions between Northern Ontario and other areas, as inferred from origins and destinations of truck trips, are focused on the following:

 between the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Sudbury via Highway 400 (a portion continuing to/from Sault Ste. Marie);  between the GTA and North Bay via Highway 11;  between Winnipeg and Dryden/Kenora; and  between Thunder Bay and Minnesota, especially the Duluth area.

Virtually all trips to/from Eastern Ontario and Eastern Canada using Northern Ontario roads represent through trips to the US (via Sault Ste. Marie) or Western Canada.

The directional imbalance in heavy truck traffic noted earlier be attributed to differences in through trip flows. Through trip volumes from Southern Ontario to Western Canada are 78% higher than in the opposite direction, with 1,200 more trips headed west than east. This imbalance can be due to a triangular trade route whereby loaded trucks travel from Southern Ontario to Western Canada but then return through the United States, perhaps picking up cargo in the Midwest before returning to Southern Ontario.

Travel Patterns by Commodity Type Exhibit ES.6 shows the origins of the 54,000 weekly truck trips on Northern Ontario roads, indicating the relative value of shipments at each origin and the distribution by commodity type. Exhibit ES.7 shows similar information by commodity value for destination zones. The exhibits show a wide variety of goods being shipped to/from each location. Among the most significant origin for goods shipped in Northern Ontario in terms of commodity value is South-Central Ontario, which accounts for roughly one- quarter of goods by commodity value. Commodities shipped are largely manufactured and processed products as well as mixed-freight goods.

The total value of loads shipped by mixed freight loads/LTL (less-than- truckload)/mail to/from locations outside of Northern Ontario is relatively large. These shipments would typically be handled by third-party transportation logistics companies using transport trucks with standard van-style trailers. ES.3 International Trade

Summary travel statistics for each of the Northern Ontario border crossings by direction are shown in Exhibit ES.8. The flows represented by these international trips is shown in Exhibit ES.9. A total of 4,300 trucks carrying an estimated $72 million in goods cross the Northern Ontario borders weekly. The busiest of these border crossing is Sault-Ste. Marie with almost 2,000 weekly trucks. Trucks at Northern Ontario border crossings tend to travel roughly 1,000 km on average on their trip. High proportions of truck returning empty are noted, especially travelling toward the United States. Among the truck flows at the borders, significant interconnectedness can be seen between Ontario paper and steel industries near the border, with US suppliers sending wood pulp, scrap metal, minerals and chemicals, etc. for use in Northern Ontario industries near the borders, and with these same industries sending raw and processed goods to the US.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.6 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.6: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Origin by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.7 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.7: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Destination by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.8 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Border crossings commercial vehicle volumes have been decreasing in recent years, and in 2011 were at about one-third of 2001 levels at Pigeon River, and at 80% of 2001 levels at Sault Ste. Marie.

Exhibit ES.8 Weekly International Truck Travel Statistics by Northern Ontario Border Crossing Commodity Tonnes Average Value Shipped % Canadian % Empty Distance Crossing Truck Trips ($ millions) (thousands) Trucks Trucks Travelled (km) To Canada Sault Ste Marie 998 20.7 13.9 55% 19% 1,271 Pigeon River 457 9.5 3.9 23% 36% 1,270 Fort Frances 459 8.2 4.3 52% 31% 707 Rainy River 303 3.4 4.8 55% 37% 297 Total 2,217 42 27 48% 27% 1,021 To US Sault Ste Marie 952 20.8 12.5 52% 35% 1,205 Pigeon River 592 4.7 3.7 56% 52% 899 Fort Frances 373 4.1 3.5 89% 31% 671 Rainy River 211 0.5 0.4 66% 89% 360 Total 2,127 30 20 61% 44% 942 TOTAL Total 4,344 72 47 54% 36% 982

ES.4 Conclusions

The key findings of the Northern Ontario commercial vehicle travel profile are as follows:

1. The Northern Ontario CVS database presents results that appear in line with the economic and transportation reality in Northern Ontario.

2. Truck travel through Northern Ontario Canada-US international borders reflects interconnectedness between Canada-US industries.

3. Northern Ontario highways serve truck travel unique to the Northern Ontario economy.

4. Northern Ontario highways serve as a vital trans-continental link.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 ES.9 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit ES.9 Weekly International Truck Volumes Using Northern Ontario International Border Crossings

Rainy River Fort Frances Sault Ste. Marie

Trips Entering Canada Trips Entering US

Kilometres

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1. Introduction 1.1 Study Background

The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario directs the Ministry of Transportation, Ontario (MTO) to develop a Northern Ontario Multimodal Transportation Strategy; this strategy will chart a long-term course for future planning, policy, programs, and infrastructure investment. An essential starting point to developing a sound strategy is having an accurate and comprehensive understanding of current travel patterns and characteristics in the region. Origin- destination surveys provide this knowledge base and a rich source of transportation information.

MTO has retained IBI Group to conduct origin-destination surveys of passenger and commercial vehicles at a number of sites in Northern Ontario, including international border crossings and locations along provincial highways. The survey program consists of three components: a commercial vehicle survey, a passenger vehicle survey, and traffic counts to support the data expansion of both surveys. 1.2 Report Purpose and Organization

This report presents a Northern Ontario commercial vehicle travel profile based on the results of the Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS) conducted in Fall 2011. Following this introduction, the report is organized as follows:

 Chapter 2 provides an overview of Northern Ontario truck travel in terms of truck traffic levels, major origin-destination patterns, and analysis of the types of cargo carried;

 Chapter 3 focuses on truck travel at the four Northern Ontario international border crossings; and

 Chapter 4 summarizes the report.

Other aspects of the Northern Ontario CVS are documented separately in the following reports for this study:

 Commercial Vehicle Survey: Survey Design and Conduct;

 Commercial Vehicle Survey: Data Processing; and

 Commercial Vehicle Survey: Traffic and Vehicle Classification Count Summary.

The Northern Ontario Passenger Vehicle Survey is also documented in separate reports.

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1.3 Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Program

The Northern Ontario CVS represents one of the earliest phases of data collection for the current province-wide Ontario CVS. The Ontario CVS is an invaluable resource for transportation and infrastructure planning at the provincial, national and international levels. The CVS has been conducted approximately every five years since 1999 and is compatible with the National Roadside Survey (NRS) conducted by Transport Canada in provinces outside of Ontario. The province-wide Ontario CVS involves tens of thousands of face-to- face interviews with truck operators at various locations throughout the Ontario roadway network, with questions regarding truck routes, commodities and company information, as well as vehicle dimensions and axle weights.

When the remainder of the data collection for the Ontario CVS is completed, the Northern Ontario CVS will be integrated into the larger Ontario CVS dataset. Meanwhile, Northern Ontario CVS data are also expanded and maintained separately for analysis in this study and for other purposes in support of transportation planning for Northern Ontario. 1.4 Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Background

The Northern Ontario CVS was conducted at 36 directional Data Collection Sites (DCSs), including 8 DCSs at international border crossing sites (4 crossings, 2 directions each) and 28 DCSs on provincial highways (15 unique locations, 13 of which were surveyed in both directions), between September 12 and November 4, 2011. These locations are shown in Exhibit 1.1. The locations were strategically selected to intercept all long-distance traffic using the Northern Ontario road network.

The 2011 Northern Ontario CVS data includes 5,087 records that have been standardized, validated and expanded. These represent a 4.9% sample of the truck volumes at individual DCSs. Longer-distance trucks pass through more than one DCS and have a chance to be inspected at each point; taking this into account, the effective sample of all unique trucks passing the survey stations is estimated to be 9.4%. Data records have been assigned expansion weights indicating how many trucks each survey record is estimated to represent. The data can be used for a wide variety of additional analyses well beyond the results presented in this report.

While the survey does not contain records of those trucks in Northern Ontario that travel shorter distances and would not pass a survey DCS, the strategic distribution of the 36 DCS locations on major routes, the significant sample rate, and the careful validation and expansion of the survey data results in a database that represents well the commercial vehicles travelling longer distances that use the Northern Ontario provincial highway network. The long-distance highway network in Northern Ontario is restricted to a relatively few routes, such that all types of longer-distance truck trip movements could be intercepted and included in the survey.

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Exhibit 1.1: Map of Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey Data Collection Site (DCS) Locations

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2. Overview of Commercial Vehicle Travel

This chapter expands provides an overview of truck travel in Northern Ontario, drawing insights from truck traffic levels, vehicle types, commodity types, truck flow patterns and other Northern Ontario CVS data.

An average of almost 54,000 truck trips per week travel along the Northern Ontario roadway network, carrying some $1.24 billion in commodities. These and other summary travel statistics summarized in Exhibit 2.1 will be examined in more detail in this chapter.

Exhibit 2.1: Summary of Weekly Truck Travel Statistics in Northern Ontario Statistic Value Truck Volumes Total trucks on the Northern Ontario highway network 53,800 Trips internal to Northern Ontario 25,800 Trips to/from Northern Ontario 20,500 Through trips (trucks with neither origin nor destination 7,500 in Northern Ontario) Commodities Carried Total commodity value $1.24 billion Average commodity value per truck $23,000 Total tonnes of cargo transported 555,000 tonnes Average tonnes/truck 10.3 Proportion of empty trucks 41% Trip Distances Average total truck trip distance 670 km Average distance travelled in Ontario 461 km Total truck-kilometres in Ontario 25 million International Trips Number of border-crossing truck trips 4,300 Value of weekly cargo shipped to Canada $42 million Value of weekly cargo shipped to USA $30 million

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2.1 Truck Traffic Levels

Exhibit 2.2 shows weekly truck traffic volumes for the 2011 Northern Ontario CVS stations and compares these with volumes where available for 2001 and 2006 from previous Ontario CVSs.1

Exhibit 2.3A shows a road network assignment of the trips made by trucks passing through the DCS locations. The black diamonds on this plot are the DCSs that were shown in Exhibit 1.1 and whose truck traffic volumes are summarized in Exhibit 2.2. The plot shows the weekly traffic volumes not just at the DCS locations but also shows how these truck trips use the road network in Ontario and beyond.

In Northern Ontario, truck traffic is concentrated on the two Trans-Canada highway routes, Highways 11 and 17. The highest truck volumes are at the gateways connecting with Southern Ontario: both Highway 11 south of North Bay and Highway 400/69 south of Sudbury (where the route connects with Highway 17) have over 10,000 trucks weekly, most of these flows being to/from the Greater Toronto Area.

Highways 11 and 17 intersect two times: at North Bay and again at Nipigon. For trips between these locations and beyond, drivers have their choice between either Highway 11 or Highway 17; either route is about 700 km in length. (For travel between Toronto and Nipigon the Highway 400 and Highway 17 route by way of Sudbury is about 60 km shorter than the Highway 11 route.) Long- distance truckers may prefer Highway 11 as it offers a flatter route with fewer curves than Highway 17 and, being more remote, there are also fewer passenger vehicles to contend with on Highway 11. Truck traffic volumes along Highway 17 and Highway 11 north of Lake Superior are now roughly equal at 5,000 to 6,000 weekly trucks. This represents an increase in truck volumes on Highway 11 of roughly one-third since 2006, while truck traffic volumes on Highway 17 have decreased slightly since 2006.

Highway 11 and 17 are a cosigned route between Nipigon and Thunder Bay. West of Thunder Bay where Highway 11 and 17 diverge, the majority of truck flows continue along Highway 17 through Northwestern Ontario. Truck volumes remain fairly steady at about 9,000 weekly trucks between Nipigon and the Ontario-Manitoba border.

Exhibit 2.3B shows how trucks in Northern Ontario use the broader continental highway network. Beyond Northern Ontario to the west, major truck flows continue westward to Winnipeg – which has been growing as a transportation hub including trucking logistics – and beyond, branching off in Saskatchewan on the two Trans-Canada routes: Highway 1 to Calgary and Vancouver, and Highway 16 to Edmonton. To the east of Northern Ontario, there are significant truck flows along Highway 17 to/from Montreal.

1 In assessing historical trends, one should be aware that some degree of variation between years can be attributed to seasonal variations, as counts conducted in different years were often conducted in different seasons. In addition, there may be differences in the accuracy of count data between years, as the 2011 counts were more thoroughly validated through manual and video classification counts.

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Exhibit 2.2: 2006-2011 Weekly Truck Traffic Volumes and Growth Rates by Highway Weekly Truck Volumes Total Growth Rate 2001- 2006- DCS Location Dir 2001 2006 2011 2011 2011 Border Crossings, East to West ON0280 Sault Ste. Marie To Can 1,323 1,271 998 -25% -22% ON0279 To US 1,128 1,083 969 -14% -10% ON0153 Pigeon River Border To Can 1,437 934 457 -68% -51% ON0154 To US 1,383 684 597 -57% -13% ON0120 Fort Frances To Can - - 459 - - ON0121 To US - - 373 - - ON0155 Rainy River To Can - - 303 - - ON0156 To US - - 211 - - Highway Sites, East to West Highway 11 ON0271 Wasi (2012) NB 3,494 3,685 5,714 64% 55% ON0272 SB 3,509 3,573 4,965 41% 39% ON0144 New Liskeard NB 3,761 3,212 4,228 12% 32% ON0145 SB 3,810 2,833 3,354 -12% 18% ON0104 Cochrane EB 2,214 1,820 2,329 5% 28% ON0105 WB 2,222 2,218 3,079 39% 39% ON0132 Hearst EB 2,049 2,050 2,833 38% 38% ON0133 WB 2,068 2,441 3,427 66% 40% Highway 17 and Highway

11&17 ON0146 North Bay WB 3,546 2,533 2,752 -22% 9% ON0147 Northshore EB 3,620 3,704 2,744 -24% -26% ON0148 WB 3,571 4,291 3,956 11% -8% ON0134 Heyden NB 1,534 3,293 3,155 106% -4% ON0135 SB 1,496 2,792 2,408 61% -14% ON0157 Red Rock Hwy 11/17 EB 3,279 4,462 3,843 17% -14% ON0158 WB 3,238 5,125 5,288 63% 3% ON0264 Thunder Bay Hwy 11/17 EB - - 2,392 - - ON0265 WB - - 3,047 - - ON0117 Dryden EB 4,139 4,441 4,233 2% -5% ON0118 WB 4,164 4,754 5,322 28% 12% ON0159 Rush Bay EB - 4,422 4,396 - -1% ON0260 WB - 4,868 5,433 - 12% Highway 66 ON0140 Kirkland Lake EB - - 830 - - ON0141 WB - 419 667 - 59% Highway 101 ON0600 Timmins EB - - 1,324 - - ON0601 WB - - 1,339 - - Highway 102 ON0262 Thunder Bay Hwy 102 EB 4,037 3,399 2,823 -30% -17% ON0263 WB 3,995 3,307 3,948 -1% 19% Highway 400 ON0150 Parry Sound NB - 6,177 5,783 - -6% ON0151 SB - 5,460 5,128 - -6%

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Exhibit 2.3: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario Roadway Network A. Ontario View

Kilometres

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Exhibit 2.3: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario (continued) B. North American View

Kilometres

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A consistent trend in 2011 truck volumes along the main highway corridors is that several hundred more trucks can be observed travelling northbound/ westbound through Northern Ontario than eastbound/southbound, as can be seen in Exhibit 2.2. This directional imbalance has been increasing over the past decade; truck volumes in 2001 are very closely balanced by direction. In Northwestern Ontario from Red Rock westerly, commercial vehicle growth has been positive in the westbound direction but has decreased in the eastbound direction. This directional imbalance is linked to the travel patterns of through trips, and will be discussed further later in this chapter.

At Canada-US border crossings, commercial vehicle volumes have been decreasing in recent years, and in 2011 total 4,300 truck trip crossings per week, about one-third of 2001 levels at Pigeon River, and at 80% of 2001 levels at Sault Ste. Marie. Pigeon River used to have the most weekly truck crossings among the Northern Ontario border crossings, but by 2011 is second to Sault Ste. Marie, (about 1,000 weekly trucks at Pigeon River vs. 2,000 at Sault Ste. Marie). 2.1 Vehicle Styles

A variety of truck vehicle types can be observed on Northern Ontario roads; these vary by type of trip. The CVS includes all medium and heavy trucks with a minimum of 6 tires, excluding emergency vehicles.

Truck configurations are summarized in Exhibit 2.4. The two main groups are straight trucks - these typically have a cargo-carrying component on the truck, or may be service trucks, utility trucks or mobile machines – and tractor-trailer combinations.

Straight trucks with or without trailers total 40% of total truck configurations in the Northern Ontario CVS; these are more common for shorter trips internal to Northern Ontario where they represent 63% of trips.

Tractor-trailer combinations, including tractor-only, total 60% of trips overall, but dominate through trips at 96% of through trips. Among tractor-trailer combinations for trips to/from and within Northern Ontario, 16 to 20% include two trailers, which is a higher proportion than typically seen in the rest of the province; among tractor-trailer combinations on through trips, only 7.2% are two- trailer combinations.

The distribution of truck body styles is shown in Exhibit 2.5. These include the style of the truck body for straight trucks, or the style of the trailer for tractor- trailer combinations.

The most common body styles among trucks in Northern Ontario is vans at 39% of trucks (refrigerated, non-refrigerated and soft-sided combined), flatbeds at 11%, tankers at 9%, and dump trucks at 11%. Trucks commonly used in the logging and wood products industries include stake/rake-style trucks and chip trucks, together totalling 11% of trucks.

Considering through trips only, the proportions of body styles are quite different from the Northern Ontario average, with van style trucks/trailers much more common at 71% of trucks; and most of the remaining trucks/trailers being flatbeds, floats and tankers.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 9 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.4: Northern Ontario Truck CVS Truck Configuration Distribution by Origin-Destination Flow Type Trips Internal to To or from Northern Northern Configuration Ontario Ontario Through Total Number of Truck Trips Straight Truck Only 15,402 3,992 208 19,602 Straight Truck & Trailer 924 746 95 1,765 Total Straight Trucks 16,326 4,738 303 21,367 Tractor Only 401 286 74 760 Tractor & 1 Trailer 7,638 12,413 6,630 26,681 Tractor & 2 Trailers 1,397 3,035 519 4,951 Total Tractor-Trailer Trucks 9,436 15,733 7,223 32,392 Total 25,762 20,471 7,526 53,759 Percentage of Truck Trips Straight Truck Only 59.8% 19.5% 2.8% 36.5% Straight Truck & Trailer 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 3.3% Total Straight Trucks 63.4% 23.1% 4.0% 39.7% Tractor Only 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% Tractor & 1 Trailer 29.6% 60.6% 88.1% 49.6% Tractor & 2 Trailers 5.4% 14.8% 6.9% 9.2% Total Tractor-Trailer Trucks 36.6% 76.9% 96.0% 60.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

OCTOBER 30, 2013 10 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.5: Northern Ontario CVS Truck/Trailer Body Style Distribution A. All Trucks B. Trips Internal to Northern Ontario

6% 11%

11%

12% 27%

5%

C. Trips to/from Northern Ontario 4% 6% 9%

D. Through Trucks

OCTOBER 30, 2013 11 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

2.2 Truck Travel Origin-Destination Flows

Exhibit 2.6 summarizes weekly commercial vehicle travel for trucks using the Northern Ontario roadway network in terms of truck volumes, vehicle-kilometres of travel in Ontario, and commodity value.

Exhibit 2.6: Trip Summary Statistics by Trip Origin-Destination Type

Truck Trips Vehicle-Kilometres in Ontario Commodity Value % of Total (km, % of Average/ Total ($, % of Average/ Trip Origin-Destination Type Total Total 1,000s) Total Truck (km) millions) Total Truck ($) Internal 25,762 48%3,860 16% 150 256 21% 9,934 Other from Northern Ontario 9,590 18% 3,680 15% 384 188 15% 19,633 Other to Northern Ontario 10,880 20% 4,520 18% 415 308 25% 29,300 Through trips 7,526 14% 12,800 51% 1,701 485 39% 64,456 Total 53,759 100% 24,800 100% 461 1,237 100% 23,015

In terms of truck volumes, almost half of the 54,000 trucks passing DCSs in Northern Ontario make trips that are internal to Northern Ontario. Approximately 14% make through trips, using the Northern Ontario road network only to travel between points outside of Northern Ontario. Another 38% are trips that move to and from Northern Ontario only.

However, in terms of vehicle-kilometres travelled, which better reflects usage of the Ontario roadway network and the probability of making a given type of trip on the road network, more than half of truck-kilometres represent through trips.2 The average through trip involves 1,700 km of travel through Ontario, while trips internal to Northern Ontario travel just 150 km on average and represent only 16% of Ontario truck-kilometres.

There is a considerable difference in the values of cargo as well for the different trip types. The greatest value is found on through trips with an average value of some $64,500; internal Northern Ontario truck trips have the lowest average value at $10,000. (All values are averaged over both loaded and empty trucks.) Trucks to and from Northern Ontario carry an average of $24,600 of goods, with trucks bringing cargo to Northern Ontario having considerably more value than trucks bringing cargo from Northern Ontario, presumably because much of the cargo transported out of Northern Ontario is non value-added raw materials with lesser unit value.

2 Vehicle-kilometres in Ontario are discussed, as opposed to in Northern Ontario, as distance travelled within each province/state is more straightforward to extract from the CVS data.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 12 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Origin-Destination Flows by Number of Trucks Further origin-destination detail in terms of numbers of trucks is provided in Exhibit 2.7, a plot of weekly truck flows on the roadway network by trucks travelling in Northern Ontario showing different colours for internal trips, trips to Northern Ontario, trips from Northern Ontario and through trips.

Origin-destination detail in terms of the number and proportion of truck trips is also summarized in table form in Exhibit 2.8. Eastern Canada in Exhibit 2.8 and other tables in this chapter represents Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, while Western Canada represents all provinces and territories to the west of Ontario.

Through trips represent 14% of Northern Ontario truck flows. In Northeastern Ontario, through trips use Highway 11 and 17 corridors roughly equally; most of these trips continue on Highway 17 in Northwestern Ontario. There are also very significant through trips to/from the Toronto and Montreal areas.

Internal Northern Ontario trips represent 48% of Northern Ontario truck flows. These tend to be focused around Northern Ontario urban centres and natural resource areas. Among the 26,000 weekly internal Northern Ontario truck trips, most remain within either Northwestern Ontario or Northeastern Ontario, only about 1,000 travel between these regions. (Additional internal trips may not have been captured in the survey as they would take place entirely between two DCSs, e.g. trips between Dryden and Kenora, or on lower-volumes routes that did not have a DCS.)

Trips to/from Northern Ontario represent 38% of Northern Ontario truck flows. Commercial interactions between Northern Ontario and other areas, as inferred from origins and destinations of truck trips, are focused on the following, listed in order of decreasing volume:

 between the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Sudbury via Highway 400/69 (a portion continuing to/from Sault Ste. Marie);

 between the GTA and North Bay via Highway 11;

 between Winnipeg and Dryden/Kenora; and

 between Thunder Bay and Minnesota, especially the Duluth area.

Virtually all trips to/from Eastern Ontario and Eastern Canada using Northern Ontario roads represent through trips to the US (via Sault Ste. Marie) or Western Canada. There is very little traffic to/from Eastern Ontario/Eastern Canada that is destined to or originating in Northern Ontario. (However, some trips to/from the North Bay area may have been missed due to the placement of the DCS locations.)

OCTOBER 30, 2013 13 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.7: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows on Northern Ontario Roadway Network by Trip Type: Internal, Through Trips, and to/from Northern Ontario

Internal North ON Trips To Northern ON only From Northern ON only Through Trips

Kilometres

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Exhibit 2.8: Weekly Northern Ontario Trucks Trips by Trip Origin and Destination

Destination Zone Northwest Northeast Southern Western Eastern United Origin Zone Ontario Ontario Ontario Canada Canada States Total Number of Truck Trips Northwestern Ontario 8,127 371 239 1,813 34 1,073 11,656 Northeastern Ontario 659 16,605 4,971 116 471 875 23,697 Southern Ontario 361 5,463 146 2,764 322 62 9,119 Western Canada 1,941 218 1,553 679 75 4,465 Eastern Canada 40 830 443 718 4 211 2,247 United States 1,010 1,017 152 106 280 12 2,576 Total 12,138 24,504 7,504 5,517 1,790 2,307 53,759 Proportion of Truck Trips Northwestern Ontario 15.1% 0.7% 0.4% 3.4% 0.1% 2.0% 21.7% Northeastern Ontario 1.2% 30.9% 9.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 44.1% Southern Ontario 0.7% 10.2% 0.3% 5.1% 0.6% 0.1% 17.0% Western Canada 3.6% 0.4% 2.9% - 1.3% 0.1% 8.3% Eastern Canada 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 4.2% United States 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 4.8% Total 22.6% 45.6% 14.0% 10.3% 3.3% 4.3% 100.0%

The directional imbalance in heavy truck traffic noted in Section 2.1 can be attributed by differences in through-trip flows. Through-trip volumes from Southern Ontario to Western Canada are 78% higher than in the opposite direction, with 1,200 more trips headed west than east. This coincides with the opposite trend observed at several provincial highway locations in Southern Ontario, where roughly the same amount of additional heavy trucks can be observed eastbound than westbound. It can be hypothesized that this imbalance is due to a triangular trade route whereby loaded trucks travel from Southern Ontario to Western Canada but then return through the United States perhaps picking up cargo at Chicago and Michigan before returning to Southern Ontario. Alternatively trucks may come back empty from Western Canada electing to come back through the US: being empty they would not require detailed inspection at border points. Returning east via the US, truck drivers would also enjoy the typically lower fuel prices in the US compared to Canada.

More detailed origin-destination matrices are included as Appendix A.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 15 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Origin-Destination Flows by Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled The geography of Northern Ontario and the long distances between urban centres often results in very long truck travel distances. Overall, the average distance travelled in Ontario by any truck observed on Northern Ontario roads is 462 km, roughly equivalent to the distance between Thunder Bay and Kenora, or between Sault Ste. Marie and North Bay. The average total trip length is 670 km, almost the distance between Nipigon and North Bay, or between Sault Ste. Marie and Toronto.

Compared to the number of truck trips, the importance of through trips among trucks using the Northern Ontario road network comes across more strongly when total weekly vehicle-kilometres travelled in Ontario are examined. Exhibit 2.9 shows in matrix form the total Ontario truck vehicle-kilometres by origin and destination pair, as well as the proportion of total Ontario vehicle-kilometres travelled. The distances travelled beyond Ontario not included in these figures; many trucks travel significant distances beyond the Ontario road network.

Among trucks in Northern Ontario, through trips represent more than half of Ontario vehicle-kilometres travelled, compared to only 14% of the number of trucks. Trips travelling from Southern Ontario through Northern Ontario to Western Canada represent almost 22% of vehicle-kilometres; the reverse flow, 12%. Trips travelling from Southern Ontario or Eastern Canada to Western Canada average over 2,000 km on Ontario highways.

Trips internal to Northern Ontario, which represent 48% of trucks, represent 16% of truck vehicle-kilometres. These travel an average distance of 150 km.

Trips travelling to and from Northern Ontario make up 32% of Ontario vehicle- kilometres driven by Northern Ontario trucks.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 16 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.9: Weekly Northern Ontario Truck Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled by Trip Origin and Destination

Destination Zone Northwest Northeast Southern Western Eastern United Origin Zone Ontario Ontario Ontario Canada Canada States Total Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled in Ontario (millions) Northwestern Ontario 832 264 366 462 50 122 2,096 Northeastern Ontario 474 2,288 2,250 163 117 153 5,444 Southern Ontario 523 2,553 74 5,460 178 49 8,838 Western Canada 475 290 3,076 1,367 96 5,303 Eastern Canada 57 253 228 1,506 1 194 2,238 United States 83 290 126 100 304 11 914 Total 2,443 5,9376,120 7,692 2,017 625 24,834 Proportion of Vehicle-Kilometres Travelled in Ontario Northwestern Ontario 3.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.5% 8.4% Northeastern Ontario 1.9% 9.2% 9.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 21.9% Southern Ontario 2.1% 10.3% 0.3% 22.0% 0.7% 0.2% 35.6% Western Canada 1.9% 1.2% 12.4% - 5.5% 0.4% 21.4% Eastern Canada 0.2% 1.0% 0.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.8% 9.0% United States 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 3.7% Total 9.8% 23.9% 24.6% 31.0% 8.1% 2.5% 100.0% Average Ontario Distance per Truck (km) Northwestern Ontario 102 711 1,534 255 1,493 114 180 Northeastern Ontario 720 138 453 1,408 248 174 230 Southern Ontario 1,446 467 509 1,976 554 794 969 Western Canada 245 1,330 1,981 - 2,014 1,286 1,188 Eastern Canada 1,401 304 514 2,096 157 921 996 United States 82 285 833 949 1,087 910 355 Overall Average 201 242 816 1,394 1,127 271 462 Average Total Distance Travelled per Truck (km) Northwestern Ontario 102 713 1,534 609 1,700 445 266 Northeastern Ontario 720 138 453 2,378 328 491 248 Southern Ontario 1,446 467 509 3,200 674 1,375 1,348 Western Canada 475 2,324 3,001 - 3,452 2,640 1,932 Eastern Canada 1,800 564 628 3,518 239 2,159 1,692 United States 439 784 1,434 2,265 2,166 1,986 903 Total 269 2811,046 2,355 1,888 723 670

OCTOBER 30, 2013 17 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Value and Weight Exhibit 2.10 shows Northern Ontario truck origin-destination flows in terms of the total and percentage total value of commodities carried, and also provides an average total commodity value per truck. Exhibit 2.11 shows the same for commodity weight.

The total value of goods shipped weekly on Northern Ontario roads is $1.24 billion, with the average truck carrying 10,300 kg of cargo, and an average commodity value of $23,000, working out to an average unit value of $2.23 per kilogram. Among trucks carrying loads only, the average commodity weight is 17,400 kg and average commodity value is $38,700.

Exhibit 2.10: Total Weekly Commodity Value Transported by Truck in Northern Ontario by Trip Origin and Destination

Destination Zone Northwest Northeast Southern Western Eastern United Origin Zone Ontario Ontario Ontario Canada Canada States Total Total Commodity Value ($ millions) Northwestern Ontario 55 10 32 37 1 9 144 Northeastern Ontario 38 153 85 7 3 14 300 Southern Ontario 19 157 1 201 8 4 389 Western Canada 36 17 114 56 3 226 Eastern Canada 3 35 13 53 0 5 110 United States 17 24 6 5 15 0 68 Total 168 396250 304 83 36 1,237 Proportion of Commodity Value Northwestern Ontario 4.5% 0.8% 2.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.7% 11.6% Northeastern Ontario 3.1% 12.4% 6.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 24.3% Southern Ontario 1.5% 12.7% 0.0% 16.3% 0.6% 0.3% 31.5% Western Canada 2.9% 1.3% 9.2% - 4.5% 0.3% 18.2% Eastern Canada 0.2% 2.8% 1.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.4% 8.9% United States 1.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 5.5% Total 13.6% 32.0% 20.2% 24.6% 6.7% 2.9% 100.0% Average Commodity Value Carried per Truck (All Trucks including Empty Trucks) Northwestern Ontario 6.8 27.2 134.7 20.6 17.6 8.1 12.3 Northeastern Ontario 57.3 9.2 17.0 63.5 7.4 16.3 12.7 Southern Ontario 52.2 28.7 4.1 72.9 24.2 65.6 42.7 Western Canada 18.7 76.4 73.1 - 82.6 42.9 50.5 Eastern Canada 76.2 42.4 30.0 73.8 4.0 24.1 48.8 United States 16.5 24.1 41.4 50.0 54.0 32.8 26.5 Overall Average 13.8 16.2 33.4 55.2 46.4 15.5 23.0

OCTOBER 30, 2013 18 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.11: Total Weekly Commodity Weight Transported by Truck in Northern Ontario by Trip Origin and Destination

Destination Zone Northwest Northeast Southern Western Eastern United Origin Zone Ontario Ontario Ontario Canada Canada States Total Total Commodity Weight (thousand tonnes) Northwestern Ontario 78.1 5.1 2.3 7.4 0.2 7.2 100.2 Northeastern Ontario 5.8 115.6 43.0 1.9 10.2 12.1 188.6 Southern Ontario 4.9 83.7 0.4 39.3 5.3 0.6 134.2 Western Canada 25.3 3.2 22.9 0.0 10.0 1.3 62.7 Eastern Canada 0.6 12.6 10.6 10.1 0.0 3.3 37.2 United States 10.2 14.0 1.7 1.7 4.7 0.2 32.4 Total 124.8 234.181.0 60.4 30.5 24.6 555.3 Proportion of Commodity Weight Northwestern Ontario 14.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 18.0% Northeastern Ontario 1.0% 20.8% 7.7% 0.4% 1.8% 2.2% 34.0% Southern Ontario 0.9% 15.1% 0.1% 7.1% 1.0% 0.1% 24.2% Western Canada 4.6% 0.6% 4.1% - 1.8% 0.2% 11.3% Eastern Canada 0.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.6% 6.7% United States 1.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 5.8% Total 22.5% 42.2% 14.6% 10.9% 5.5% 4.4% 100.0% Average Commodity Weight per Truck (tonnes, All Trucks including Empty Trucks) Northwestern Ontario 9.6 13.6 9.5 4.1 5.7 6.7 8.6 Northeastern Ontario 8.8 7.0 8.7 16.8 21.6 13.9 8.0 Southern Ontario 13.5 15.3 2.7 14.2 16.5 10.5 14.7 Western Canada 13.0 14.9 14.8 - 14.8 16.8 14.0 Eastern Canada 14.3 15.2 24.0 14.0 4.4 15.6 16.6 United States 10.1 13.7 11.4 15.9 16.9 12.7 12.6 Overall Average 10.3 9.6 10.8 10.9 17.0 10.7 10.3

Through trips have the highest average commodity value at $64,500 per truck. The 7,500 weekly through trips carry a total value of $485 million weekly, or 39% of the total commodity value for the Northern Ontario CVS trips. Of this total, 42% is accounted for by trips from Southern Ontario to Western Canada.

Trips internal to Northern Ontario carry a total value of $256 million weekly. The value of goods flowing from Northern Ontario is just 61% of the value of goods flowing into Northern Ontario by truck: goods exported by truck from Northern Ontario total $188 million, while goods imported to Northern Ontario total $308 million.

Trips from the US have an average value of $26,500, while trips to the US have an average value of $15,500. This is due in part to a greater proportion of empty trucks crossing the border to the US than the opposite direction, and also to greater proportion of raw goods being shipped to the US, while a greater proportion of value-added goods is shipped to Canada.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 19 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

2.3 Travel Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Type

In this section, truck travel origins, destinations and travel patterns are examined by cargo commodity type. In the CVS, detailed commodity type information is available; these have been grouped into 13 commodity groups to simplify analysis. These categories are listed below with examples of specific commodities for each group carried by Northern Ontario trucks:  Agricultural Products: live cattle/pigs/horses; wheat; fresh fruits and vegetables; eggs; and animal and pet food;

 Food: meat, fish and poultry; bakery items; processed foods; dairy products; and beverages;

 Chemicals & Products: basic chemicals and compounds such as hydrochloric acid, liquid/compressed oxygen or hydrogen; medical and pharmaceutical products; fertilizer; paint; cleaning products; resins and waxes; products made of acrylic, plastic, and rubber and fibreglass;

 Machinery & Electrical: construction, mining and farming equipment; engines; compressors; air conditioners; heaters; freezers; electronics including products for entertainment, office and computers; and electrical cables;

 Manufactured Products: household and office furniture; books and printed material; clothing; and carpet;

 Metals & Products: steel plates, coils, tubing/pipes; steel drums and containers; and primarily metal products such as doors, panels, furnaces and tools;

 Minerals: gravel; sand; soil; salt; granite; cement; concrete products; nickel; and uranium;

 Petroleum & Products: Gasoline and other fuel; oil; and asphalt;

 Transportation: automobiles and trucks; car parts; helicopters; boats; and snowmobiles;

 Wood & Products: logs; wood chips; lumber; wood panels; windows and doors; paper pulp; newsprint; office paper; paper towels; and cardboard products;

 Waste & Scrap: scrap metal; sawdust; used tires; paper, bottles and metal for recycling; and trash for landfill;

 Mixed, Mail, Unknown: parcels, mail, sealed trailers; LTL (less- than-load) general freight; and

 Empty: includes shipping containers not for sale but returning empty.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 20 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Commodity Origins and Destinations by Number of Trucks Exhibit 2.12 and Exhibit 2.13 show the origins and destinations, respectively, of the 54,000 weekly truck trips by commodity type on Northern Ontario roads. The exhibits indicate the relative magnitude of truck trips at each origin/destination and the distribution by commodity type. On these and the following exhibits, origins and destinations have been combined into areas shown by dotted lines, typically reflecting upper-tier government regions or districts. In some cases, the main urbanized area within a region is shown separately from the surrounding area, for example, there are separate zones for the City of Thunder Bay and for the rest of the Thunder Bay District. The exhibits show a wide variety of goods being shipped to/from each location. Overall, empty trucks represent 40% of truck trips. The large proportion of empty truck trips at most trip origin/destination locations is evident, with the main exceptions being locations outside of Northern Ontario. Empty truck trips tend to be unavoidable when goods are moved by more specialized trucks, as is the case for moving raw materials related to natural resource industries in Northern Ontario: it is difficult to create efficiencies and load up logging trucks, wood chip trucks, dump trucks, vehicle floats, etc., with other goods to reduce empty truck kilometres on the return trips. For long-distance trips of goods that can be carried by transportation companies in standard van-style transport trucks, however, efficiencies can be developed to reduce the number or distance of empty truck movements. Empty trucks tend to travel shorter distances overall. Empty truck trips also represent trips by utility vehicles and by mobile machines such as those used in construction. In a few locations, empty truck trips represent more than 50% of trip origins (e.g. Kenora outside of the City of Kenora). This could represent areas where a higher number of loads tend to be dropped off and trucks leave empty after dropping off their load; these loads tend to leave in their final form (e.g. after processing) in a smaller number of large trucks. They could involve areas of construction (e.g. cement trucks leaving empty from construction sites) or there could be significant proportions of service vehicles and mobile machines in the vehicle mix. As shown in and Exhibit 2.13, truck flows to Central Ontario have a relatively high proportion of empty trips as well; Central Ontario is a net exporter of goods to Northeastern Ontario, and empty trucks return to Central Ontario empty after unloading goods. Empty trucks returning eastward from Western Canada through Northern Ontario are notably rare due to the triangular trade route through the United States noted previously. Empty truck trips to/from Quebec and Eastern Canada are also not very common. Among loaded trucks, commodities related to Northern Ontario’s primary natural resource industries are relatively common. These include wood products (including paper) originating throughout Northern Ontario. (Similarly, wood/paper product goods from Quebec and Eastern Canada are transported along Northern Ontario roads; these are typically destined to Michigan and other US states.) Truck carrying goods related to mining and metal refining industries are also evident, especially in Northeastern Ontario; these include the minerals and metals/metal products categories. Chemical products are also shipped from Sudbury and North Bay. Some of the waste and scrap shipped includes by- products of these industries, such as sawdust from wood/paper industries, or waste/scrap to be processed, such as metal sent to a steel refinery to be

OCTOBER 30, 2013 21 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

recycled. Shipments of petroleum and petroleum products are also fairly significant in some locations, such as the Thunder Bay area. Less related to primary industries are mixed loads, which are very common at 10% of overall trips. The bulk of these are shipped from Central and Southern Ontario westward to Northern Ontario and beyond to Western Canada. Also fairly common are agricultural products and food shipments; while some are destined to/from Northern Ontario, the bulk of these pass through Northern Ontario to/from other parts of Canada. Commodity Origins and Destinations by Commodity Value The goods movement picture painted by truck trip origins and destinations by commodity value tells shows different emphases than does the number of truck trips. Exhibit 2.14 and Exhibit 2.15 show the origins and destinations, respectively, of the $1.24 billion in commodities transported weekly on Northern Ontario roads. Among the most significant origins for goods shipped in Northern Ontario in terms of commodity value is Central Ontario, accounting for roughly one-quarter of goods shipped in Northern Ontario. Commodities shipped are largely manufactured and processed products as well as mixed-freight goods. Central Ontario also receives significant goods exported from more southerly locations in Northeastern Ontario. The total value of loads shipped by mixed freight loads/LTL (less-than- truckload)/mail to/from locations outside of Northern Ontario is relatively large. These shipments would typically be handled by third-party transportation logistics companies using transport trucks with standard van-style trailers. Mississauga in Central Ontario is the base for several such companies. Some of the highest-value goods transported in Northern Ontario include goods related to the transportation industry, and include, for example, heavy vehicles manufactured by Bombardier in Thunder Bay, or parts for manufacturing vehicles. While the number of trucks moving transportation-related goods is relatively small, the proportion measured by commodity value is quite significant. Wood products have a relatively low value per unit weight, such that the proportion of goods moved by value is lower than the proportion indicated by number of trucks. However, the proportion of metals and of minerals and related products transported in Northern Ontario is significant either in terms of trucks or commodity value. The value of scrap metal (waste and scrap commodity category) shipped to Essar Steel in Sault Ste. Marie for processing is also significant.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 22 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.12: Northern Ontario Truck Trip Origins by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 23 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.13: Northern Ontario Truck Trip Destinations by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 24 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.14: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Origin by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 25 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.15: Northern Ontario Truck Commodity Value at Trip Destination by Commodity Type

OCTOBER 30, 2013 26 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Origin-Destination Flows by Commodity Type Whereas the origins and destinations of goods by commodity type were discussed above, this section discusses the flows of these goods. The distribution of commodities in terms of number of trucks by trip flow type is summarized in chart form in Exhibit 2.16 and in table form in Exhibit 2.17. Overall, empty trucks represent 40% of truck trips, although this varies greatly by the type of trip. As noted earlier, specialized vehicles for moving raw materials tend to return empty after transporting their load; these types of trips tend to involve shorter distances. The proportion of empty trucks is highest among internal Northern Ontario trips and trips from Northern Ontario, both with just over half of these trucks being empty. Among through trips, which travel very long distances and typically make use of more standard tractor-trailer vehicles and trailers, there are only 7% empty trucks. To bring further insight to the movement of empty trucks, Exhibit 2.18 shows the travel flows of empty vs. loaded trucks that use the Northern Ontario road network on the broader road network. Along the Trans-Canada routes and on Highways 11 and 400 between Northern Ontario and the GTA (the main routes for through trips using the Northern Ontario road network), loaded trucks predominate. Higher proportions of empty truck trips can be seen on other highways with a lower proportion of through trips.

Exhibit 2.16: Northern Ontario Truck Flows by Commodity Type and Trip Origin-Destination Type A. Number of Trucks

Agricultural Products Internal Food Chemicals & Products Other from Machinery & Electrical Northern ON Manufactured Products Other to Metals & Products Northern ON Minerals Petroleum & Products Thro ug h Transportation Wood & Products Waste & Scrap TOTAL Mixed, Mail, Unknown Empty 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Weekly Truck Trips (Thousands)

B. Proportion of Truck Flows

Agricultural Products Internal Food Chemicals & Products Other from Machinery & Electrical Northern ON Manufactured Products Other to Metals & Products Northern ON Minerals Petroleum & Products Through Transportation Wood & Products Waste & Scrap TOTAL Mixed, Mail, Unknown Empty 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Weekly Truck Trips

OCTOBER 30, 2013 27 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.17: Table of Northern Ontario Truck Flows by Commodity Type and Trip Origin-Destination Type From To Northern Northern Through Commodity Type Internal Ontario Ontario Trips Total Number of Trucks Agricultural Products 17 103 266 394 779 Food 805 221 535 1,191 2,752 Chemicals & Products 490 225 402 383 1,501 Machinery & Electrical 721 228 471 551 1,971 Manufactured Products 328 263 433 499 1,522 Metals & Products 1,058 294 1,055 632 3,039 Minerals 2,413 434 882 249 3,979 Petroleum & Products 2,068 15 848 20 2,951 Transportation 141 235 295 345 1,016 Wood & Products 2,139 1,259 1,254 725 5,376 Waste & Scrap 690 615 226 107 1,638 Mixed, Mail, Unknown 1,469 582 1,463 1,933 5,447 Empty 13,424 5,116 2,751 496 21,787 Total 25,762 9,590 10,880 7,526 53,759 Proportion of Trucks Agricultural Products 0.1 1.1 2.4 5.2 1.4 Food 3.1 2.3 4.9 15.8 5.1 Chemicals & Products 1.9 2.3 3.7 5.1 2.8 Machinery & Electrical 2.8 2.4 4.3 7.3 3.7 Manufactured Products 1.3 2.7 4.0 6.6 2.8 Metals & Products 4.1 3.1 9.7 8.4 5.7 Minerals 9.4 4.5 8.1 3.3 7.4 Petroleum & Products 8.0 0.2 7.8 0.3 5.5 Transportation 0.5 2.4 2.7 4.6 1.9 Wood & Products 8.3 13.1 11.5 9.6 10.0 Waste & Scrap 2.7 6.4 2.1 1.4 3.0 Mixed, Mail, Unknown 5.7 6.1 13.4 25.7 10.1 Empty 52.1 53.3 25.3 6.6 40.5 Total 100 100 100 100100

OCTOBER 30, 2013 28 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.18: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows: Loaded Trucks vs. Empty Trucks

Kilometres

OCTOBER 30, 2013 29 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.19 shows the distribution of loaded trucks by commodity group on the Northern Ontario highway network. Based on flows detail on this exhibit, as well as the information in other exhibits in this section, the following travel characteristics by commodity type can be noted:

 The Northern Ontario highway network carries a remarkably wide variety of goods throughout the network;

 The most common commodity type carried, representing 10% of trucks and over 25% of through-trip trucks, are mixed or unknown goods carried by mail, less-than-truckload shipments, or mixed loads; the bulk of these are trips from Southern Ontario through to Western Canada;

 The second most common commodity type at 10% of trucks is wood and related products, given Northern Ontario’s strong forestry and paper industries; there is significant movement of wood and wood products from the New Liskeard area south along the Highway 11 corridor toward the GTA, and also from various Northwest Ontario locations to the US; often concurrent with these loads of wood products are related waste/scrap loads;

 Trucks carrying minerals represent 7.4% of total truck trips, but over 9% for internal Northern Ontario trips, representing in large part goods related to the Northern Ontario mining industry; minerals are also imported to Northern Ontario from the US, especially in Northwestern Ontario via Pigeon River;

 Food products represent 5% of total trips, but a much larger 16% of through trips;

 Chemicals and chemical products total 3% of total trips and 5% of through trips; these are more likely to travel along Highways 400 and 17 than along Highway 11; and

 Manufactured products and machinery/electrical products each represent 7% of through-trips in Northern Ontario, and many of these are shipped from Southern Ontario to Western Canada.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 30 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.19: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows by Commodity Type A. Northwest Ontario

Kilometres

OCTOBER 30, 2013 31 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.19: Weekly Commercial Vehicle Flows by Commodity Type (continued) B. Northeast Ontario

Kilometres

OCTOBER 30, 2013 32 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.20 shows the trip length distribution for each commodity type transported on Northern Ontario roads. The exhibit shows that certain commodities are frequently transported shorter distances: petroleum and products, empty trucks, waste and scrap, wood and wood products, and minerals. Among commodities that tend to be shipped longer distances are transportation products, mixed/mail/LTL goods, agricultural products, food products, and manufactured products; approximately 20% or more of trucks carrying these commodities travel more than 3,000 km.

Exhibit 2.20: Trip Length Distribution by Commodity Type (Total Distance Travelled)

90% Agricultural Products 80% Food Chemicals & Products

70% Machinery & Electrical Manufactured Products Metals & Products 60% Minerals Petroleum & Products 50% Transportation Wood & Products 40% Waste & Scrap Mixed, Mail, LTL, Unknown

by Commodity by Type 30% Empty TOTAL 20% Proportion of Northern Northern of Proportion Ontario Truck Trips 10%

0% 0-500 500-1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 3,000-4,000 5,000+ Trip Length Range (km)

2.4 Data Collection Site Summaries

Exhibit 2.21 provides summary statistics of weekly truck travel at the individual data collection site level, including truck volumes, cargo value, cargo weight, percentage of empty trucks, percentage of Canadian-registered trucks, and average total trip distance.

A more detailed two-page summary for each data collection site is included as Appendix B, and includes origin-destination map plots, commodity distribution, and origin-destination flows summarized in table form at a six-zone level.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 33 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 2.21: : Weekly Commercial Vehicle Travel Summary Statistics by DCS Total Total Average Cargo Average Cargo Cargo Weight Trip Total Value Value/ (thousand % Empty % Can. Length DCS Location Dir Trucks ($millions) Truck ($) tonnes) Trucks Trucks (km) Border Crossings, East to West ON0280 Sault Ste. Marie To Can 998 20.7 20,800 13.9 19% 55% 1,271 ON0279 To US 952 20.8 21,800 12.5 35% 52% 1,205 ON0153 Pigeon River Border To Can 457 9.5 20,800 3.9 36% 23% 1,270 ON0154 To US 592 4.7 8,000 3.7 52% 56% 899 ON0120 Fort Frances To Can 459 8.2 18,000 4.3 31% 52% 707 ON0121 To US 373 4.1 11,000 3.5 31% 89% 671 ON0155 Rainy River To Can 303 3.4 11,100 4.8 37% 55% 297 ON0156 To US 211 0.5 2,200 0.4 89% 66% 360 Highway Sites, East to West Highway 11 ON0271 Wasi (2012) NB 5,696 176 31,000 75.1 25% 97% 1,789 ON0272 SB 4,604 121 26,200 51.9 45% 99% 1,272 ON0144 New Liskeard NB 4,203 180 42,900 53.3 21% 98% 2,680 ON0145 SB 3,170 139 44,000 38.8 33% 99% 2,469 ON0105 Cochrane WB 3,552 151 42,458 42 18% 100% 2,989 ON0132 Hearst EB 2,435 128 52,400 28.3 24% 100% 3,153 ON0133 WB 3,404 152 44,800 39.6 15% 99% 3,113 Highway 17 and Highway 11&17 ON0146 North Bay WB 2,744 71 25,800 25.4 41% 98% 1,123 ON0147 Northshore EB 2,654 132 49,700 33.7 21% 96% 2,678 ON0148 WB 3,918 227 57,900 50.3 18% 97% 3,018 ON0134 Heyden NB 3,126 184 58,800 35.6 16% 97% 3,422 ON0135 SB 2,184 110 50,400 24.1 27% 98% 2,859 ON0157 Red Rock Hwy 11/17 EB 3,645 241 66,100 52.0 15% 98% 3,817 ON0158 WB 5,231 313 59,800 65.5 16% 99% 4,002 ON0264 Thunder Bay Hwy 11/17 EB 2,379 62 26,200 44.1 20% 99% 1,112 ON0265 WB 3,032 82 27,200 22.8 47% 99% 1,502 ON0117 Dryden EB 4,178 223 53,400 47.7 28% 100% 3,212 ON0118 WB 5,306 303 57,000 67.0 18% 99% 3,859 ON0159 Rush Bay EB 4,341 227 52,300 61.6 17% 100% 3,222 ON0260 WB 5,418 304 56,100 60.0 20% 99% 3,860 Highway 66 ON0140 Kirkland Lake EB 1,339 16 11,800 12.1 52% 100% 518 ON0141 WB 667 6 8,300 6.0 46% 100% 386 Highway 101 ON0600 Timmins EB 1,314 57 43,600 25.4 31% 100% 480 ON0601 WB 1,339 16 11,800 12.1 52% 100% 518 Highway 102 ON0262 Thunder Bay Hwy 102 EB 2,921 168 57,600 44.8 11% 99% 3,826 ON0263 WB 3,938 233 59,100 48.2 15% 99% 4,137 Highway 400 ON0150 Parry Sound NB 5,489 234 42,600 77.1 19% 98% 1,884 ON0151 SB 4,814 125 25,900 41.5 50% 99% 1,379

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3. International Trade

This chapter focuses on travel patterns at the four international crossings in Northern Ontario: Sault Ste. Marie, Pigeon River south of Thunder Bay, Fort Frances and Rainy River.

Summary travel statistics for each of the Northern Ontario border crossings by direction are shown in Exhibit 3.1. The flows represented by these international trips are shown in Exhibit 3.2.

A total of 4,300 trucks carrying an estimated $72 million in goods cross the Northern Ontario international borders weekly. The busiest of these border crossing is Sault-Ste. Marie with almost 2,000 weekly trucks, followed by Pigeon River at just over 1,000 weekly trucks. Trucks at Northern Ontario border crossings tend to travel roughly 1,000 km on average on their trip, with Rainy River having the shortest truck travel distances. Both Canadian and US- registered trucks use the Northern Ontario border crossings, with slightly more Canadian trucks overall. High proportions of empty trucks are noted, especially travelling toward the United States, with over half of trucks empty overall.

Exhibit 3.1: Weekly International Truck Travel Statistics by Northern Ontario Border Crossing Commodity Tonnes % Average Truck Value Shipped Canadian % Empty Vehicle-km Crossing Trips ($ millions) (thousands) Trucks Trucks Travelled To Canada Sault Ste Marie 998 20.7 13.9 55% 19% 1,271 Pigeon River 457 9.5 3.9 23% 36% 1,270 Fort Frances 459 8.2 4.3 52% 31% 707 Rainy River 303 3.4 4.8 55% 37% 297 Total 2,217 42 27 48% 27% 1,021 To US Sault Ste Marie 952 20.8 12.5 52% 35% 1,205 Pigeon River 592 4.7 3.7 56% 52% 899 Fort Frances 373 4.1 3.5 89% 31% 671 Rainy River 211 0.5 0.4 66% 89% 360 Total 2,127 30 20 61% 44% 942 TOTAL Total 4,344 72 47 54% 36% 982

OCTOBER 30, 2013 35 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.2: Weekly International Truck Volumes Using Northern Ontario International Border Crossings

Rainy River Fort Frances Sault Ste. Marie

Trips Entering Canada Trips Entering US

Kilometres

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Exhibit 3.3 shows the distributions of commodity flows for each of these crossings. Drawing on this information plus other Northern Ontario CVS data, interconnectedness of industries across the border at these locations can be seen. Specific patterns of truck travel at each crossing are noted below.

Trips crossing at Sault-Ste. Marie are mainly to/from Michigan and Wisconsin in the US, with a significant flow of trucks through Duluth, Minnesota. On the Canadian side, a large proportion of trips are to/from the Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario area. A significant 20% of truck trips crossing at Sault Ste. Marie travel to/from Quebec, as Highway 17 provides the shortest travel distance between the Montreal area and several US trade locations. In both directions a variety of goods are shipped, though the most important flow consists of wood and wood products in both directions. Wood products from Canada travel from as far as Thunder Bay and Quebec, while wood products shipped from the US tend to be more finished paper products. The steel industry in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario also accounts for a significant proportion of international travel, including scrap metal being shipped for recycling in Ontario.

Almost all truck travel flows at the Pigeon River border travel at minimum between the Thunder Bay area and Duluth, and continue to/from beyond Duluth along various US interstates. The main commodities brought into Canada at this crossing are minerals such as cement and glass that are used for construction and industry in the Thunder Bay area. The main commodities shipped to the US via Pigeon River are wood and paper products. At Pigeon River, over half the trucks travelling to the US are returning empty.

At the Fort Frances border, much of the truck travel is in support of local paper industries: wood chips for paper making are shipped from the US to paper mills in Canada; paper mills in Canada ship out paper pulp and newsprint to the US; and more refined paper is shipped back to Canada. Chemicals shipped from the US tend also to be in support of the Canadian paper industry.

The Rainy River border crossing represents an anomaly in that such a high proportion of truck trips travelling to the US - 89%- are empty trucks. Among the loaded trucks at this crossing, most are trucks bringing wood chips from Minnesota to Canadian paper mills for processing, and return to the US empty. Winnipeg serves as a major transportation logistics hub, and additional empty trucks travel from locations along the Ontario Highway 11 corridor, Fort Frances westerly, to Winnipeg; as empty trucks, the drivers avoid problems at the two international border crossings – Rainy River and Sprague (the crossing between Minnesota and Manitoba) - on this route.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 37 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Exhibit 3.3: Weekly Trucks Trips by Commodity Carried at Northern Ontario International Border Crossing A. Number of Trucks

Agricultural Products To Canada Food Chemicals & Products via Sault Ste. Marie Machinery & Electrical Manufactured Products via Pigeon River Metals & Products Minerals via Fort Frances Petroleum & Products Transportation via Rainy River Wood & Products Waste & Scrap Mixed, Mail, Unknown Empty To USA

via Sault Ste. Marie

via Pigeon River

via Fort Frances

via Rainy River

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Weekly Truck Trips

B. Commodity Value

Agricultural Products To Canada Food Chemicals & Products via Sault Ste. Marie Machinery & Electrical Manufactured Products via Pigeon River Metals & Products Minerals via Fort Frances Petroleum & Products Transportation via Rainy River Wood & Products Waste & Scrap Mixed, Mail, Unknown Empty To USA

via Sault Ste. Marie

via Pigeon River

via Fort Frances

via Rainy River

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 Weekly Commodity Value Carried (Millions)

OCTOBER 30, 2013 38 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

4. Summary and Conclusions 4.1 Summary Statistics

This reported provided a Northern Ontario commercial vehicle travel profile based on the results of the Northern Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS). The Northern Ontario CVS represents one of the earliest phases of data collection for the larger province-wide CVS, but the Northern Ontario CVS data have also been expanded and analysed separately. The Northern Ontario CVS includes 5,087 completed interviews and represents an estimated 9.4% effective sample of unique trucks using the Northern Ontario highway network. The trucks were surveyed at 37 directional Data Collection Sites (DCSs) in September to November 2011.

Based on the Northern Ontario CVS results, an average of almost 54,000 truck trips per week travel along the Northern Ontario roadway network and carry more than half a million tonnes of commodities with an estimated total value of $1.24 billion. A significant proportion of through trips as well as long distances urban areas in Northern Ontario results in an average truck trip length of 700 km. Trucks travelling in Northern Ontario carry a very wide variety of goods throughout the network. 4.2 Key Findings

The following summarizes the key findings of the Northern Ontario commercial vehicle travel profile.

1. The Northern Ontario CVS database presents results that appear in line with the economic and transportation reality in Northern Ontario.

Northern Ontario truck travel trends were presented at a broader level in this report with more detailed DCS-level plots and detailed origin-destination matrices in the appendices. The results resonate well with the reality of the Northern Ontario economy and the transportation landscape. The Northern Ontario CVS is valuable in bringing further insight into the movement of goods in Northern Ontario.

2. Truck travel through Northern Ontario Canada-US international borders reflects interconnectedness between Canada-US industries.

International truck flows through the four Northern Ontario crossings total 4,300 weekly trips carrying an estimated $72 million in cargo. The nature of the flows reflects significant interconnected between Ontario paper and steel industries near the border with US suppliers of wood pulp, scrap metal, minerals and chemicals, etc.

3. Northern Ontario highways serve truck travel unique to the Northern Ontario economy.

Internal Northern Ontario trips and trips to/from Northern Ontario from other areas typically carry goods that reflect Northern Ontario forestry, paper, mining, metal, and transportation manufacturing industries.

OCTOBER 30, 2013 39 IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT: NORTHERN ONTARIO COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TRAVEL PROFILE THE PREPARATION OF A NORTHERN ONTARIO PASSENGER AND COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY

Trucks in Northern Ontario include a variety of specialized trucks suited to moving goods particular to various primary industries. Included among these vehicles is a higher proportion of trucks with two trailers than is typically seen in other parts of the province. There is a relatively high proportion of empty truck movements, though these tend to be shorter-distance trips and often reflect specialized trucks returning empty after dropping off their loads. (The proportion of empty trucks within long-distance trips tends to be much lower, as efficiencies can be introduced by trucking companies for goods that can be carried by transport trucks with standard van-style trailers.)

The truck travel patterns indicate the economic ties that Northern Ontario has with other areas. Trips to/from Northern Ontario are focused on three connections: between the Greater Toronto Area and the Sudbury/North Bay areas, Winnipeg with Dryden/Kenora and as far as east as the Thunder Bay area, and Thunder Bay with Duluth, Minnesota. While Northern Ontario sees significant truck volumes to/from Quebec, these generally are passing through Northern Ontario to/from the US via Sault Ste. Marie.

4. Northern Ontario highways serve as a vital trans-continental link.

While 14% of trucks observed using Northern Ontario roads represent through trips that neither start nor end in Northern Ontario, through trips represent over half of vehicle-kilometres travelled in Ontario by trucks using the Northern Ontario road network. The most significant origin in terms of commodity value for truck trips in Northern Ontario is Central Ontario, accounting for about one- quarter of commodity value transported. The most common goods represented in through trips include mixed/mail/unknown goods, food, and wood/ wood products.

The Northern Ontario road network, especially Highways 11 and 17, is a vitally important piece of the larger goods movement network between Southern Ontario and Eastern Canada on one side and Western Canada and states such as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin on the other. The movement of goods westward through Northern Ontario has increased in recent years, including an increase in travel overall on Highway 11 in Northeastern Ontario. This westward increase is perhaps due to increased border security since 2001 that keeps more loaded trucks in Canada rather than travelling potentially shorter distances to Western Canada via the United States, or due to improved efficiencies in transportation logistics that may be bringing an increased number of trucks to Winnipeg or other transportation hubs in Western Canada. There are fewer trucks returning trucks eastward, as they appear to travel via the US, perhaps becoming loaded with other goods along the way. Eastbound truck volumes through Northern Ontario have decreased or remained stable. Over a thousand more trucks weekly travel westward through Northern Ontario than eastward.

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