A Roadmap for Accelerating the Adoption of Low-GWP HVAC Refrigerants
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Information Details Sector Lead Amit Kanungo Project Manager Brad Hoover Telephone Number +1 510 891 0446 x44153 Mailing Address 155 Grand Avenue, Suite 500, Oakland, CA 94612 Email Address [email protected] Report Location http://www.calmac.org LEGAL NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the California Public Utilities Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Commission or any of its employees except to the extent, if any, that it has formally been approved by the Commission at a public meeting. For information regarding any such action, communicate directly with the Commission at 505 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, California 94102. Neither the Commission nor the State of California, nor any officer, employee, or any of its contractors or subcontractors makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability whatsoever for the contents of this document. Acknowledgements DNV GL would like to acknowledge the following individuals and organizations who contributed to this report: Wes Davis, Director of Technical Services at Air Conditioning Contractors of America Ken Mozez, Refrigeration Sales Manager at Air Treatment Steven P. Mella, CEO at ComStar International Charlie McCrudden, Director of Government Affairs at Daikin US Corporation Christina Starr, Senior Policy Analyst at Environmental Investigation Agency Daniel Bresette, Executive Director at Environmental and Energy Study Institute Amber Todoroff, Policy Associate at Environmental and Energy Study Institute Tyler Miner, President at Henry Bush Plumbing, Heating & Air Conditioning Jonathan Stack, Director of Sustainability at Hudson Technologies Company Bob Wiseman Chairman of the Board at Institute of Heating and Air Conditioning Kristen Taddonio, Senior Climate and Energy Advisor at Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development Chris Forth, Executive Director of Regulatory Codes and Environmental Affairs at Johnson Controls Mark Lessans, Director of Regulatory and Environmental Affairs at Johnson Controls Mark McLinden, Supervisory Chemical Engineer, National Institute of Standards and Technologies Danielle Wright, Executive Director at North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council Ron Yaffe, Vice President of Sales at Norman Wright Nicole Seiderman, Business Development Manager at Norman Wright Ahmed Elataf, R&D Associate Staff at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Bruce Fuhrmann, Commercial Sales and Engineering Manager at US Air Conditioning Distributors Curtis Harrington, Senior Engineer at UC Davis Western Cooling Efficiency Center Table of contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 1 Background 1 Project objectives 3 Approach 3 Summary of key findings 3 2 LIST OF DEFINITIONS ..................................................................................................... 9 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 13 Background 13 Study goals, research questions, and scope 15 Approach overview 16 Organization of report 16 4 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 17 Data sources and tools 17 Secondary research 18 IDIs of HVAC refrigerant SMEs 19 Web survey of HVAC refrigerant SMEs 20 Data analysis of EE performance and lifetime GWP 23 5 DETAILED RESULTS ...................................................................................................... 29 Regulatory and policy impacts 29 The Montreal Protocol 29 The Kigali Amendment 30 F-Gas regulation in the European Union 30 The Clean Air Act and the Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program 31 California Assembly Bill 32 and SB 1383 32 SB-1013 and fluorinated refrigerants 33 HVAC refrigerant SMEs understanding of California regulations 35 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 which includes Sec. 103, “American Innovation and Manufacturing Act of 2020” 37 Refrigerant leakage, recovery, reclamation, and reuse 37 Exploring leakage rates from other studies 40 Current and future low-GWP refrigerant alternatives 46 Barriers and solutions of low-GWP adoption in new HVAC 52 Barriers and solutions to refrigerant only retrofits on existing HVAC 56 Performance analysis 58 Lifetime GWP analysis 61 Lifetime GWP 61 New system vs direct drop-in retrofit analysis 62 Grid Impact 63 Improved reclamation impacts 64 Accelerated Replacement (AR) vs. Normal Replacement (NR) 65 Comparison between existing refrigerant ACC and DNV GL’s prototype calculator 66 Uncertainty disclosure 67 Web survey feedback on GWP actions 67 DNV GL Energy Insights USA, Inc. Page i 6 KEY FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, & CONSIDERATIONS ............................................... 69 Key findings and recommendations 69 7 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................ 75 Appendix A: IESR – Recommendations resulting from the market research 76 Appendix B: Data sources table 86 Appendix C: Invitation to participate and IDI guide 103 Appendix D: Web survey 104 Appendix E: Complete web survey open-ended responses 109 Appendix F: Stakeholder comments and evaluator responses 113 List of figures Figure 1-1. Web survey: Minimum lead time needed to transition to <750 GWP refrigerants following code finalization ............................................................................................................. 4 Figure 1-2. Web survey: Anticipated most common HVAC refrigerant installed in 2025 ......................... 5 Figure 1-3. Web survey: Are <750-GWP refrigerant-only retrofits practical? ........................................ 7 Figure 1-4. Web survey: Ways to improve end-of-life refrigerant reclamation ...................................... 7 Figure 4-1. DX system cycle diagram ........................................................................................... 25 Figure 4-2. Medium-to-large chiller cycle diagram .......................................................................... 26 Figure 4-3. Sample inputs for lifetime GWP calculation ................................................................... 27 Figure 5-1. Estimated HFC emissions in CA from the Kigali Amendment ............................................ 33 Figure 5-2. CARB alternative refrigerant approval process ............................................................... 34 Figure 5-3. Web survey: SB 1013 familiarity ................................................................................. 35 Figure 5-4. Web survey: Agree SB 1013 impact most new HVAC to use <750 GWP ............................ 36 Figure 5-5. Web survey: What percent remaining refrigerant is reclaimed at EOL .............................. 43 Figure 5-6. Web Survey: Ways to improve end-of-life refrigerant reclamation ................................... 46 Figure 5-7. Historic, present, and likely future California HVAC refrigerant installation rates by overall market share .................................................................................................................. 50 Figure 5-8. Web Survey: Anticipated most common HVAC refrigerant installed in 2025 ...................... 52 Figure 5-9. Web survey: Minimum lead time to transition to <750 GWP refrigerants following code finalization ................................................................................................................................ 53 Figure 5-10. Web survey: Cost impact of <750 GWP new HVAC in both 2023 and 2025 ...................... 54 Figure 5-11. Web survey: Average estimated price increase reported by respondent sector ................ 55 Figure 5-12. Web survey Are low-GWP refrigerant only retrofits for listed existing equipment types or category bins practical? .......................................................................................................... 57 Figure 5-13. Refrigerant performance for unitary AC ...................................................................... 58 Figure 5-14. Lifetime GWP distribution for (a) medium chiller; (b) commercial unitary AC, and (c) residential AC ............................................................................................................................ 61 Figure 5-15. Total GHG cost under different grid emission scenarios................................................. 64 Figure 5-16. Impact of EUL loss rate for residential AC with R-410A ................................................. 65 Figure 5-17. Residential AC lifetime GWP of accelerated replacement at various equipment age .......... 66 Figure 5-18. Comparison between existing calculator vs. DNV GL calculator ...................................... 67 Figure 5-19. Web survey: Rank the listed actions’ potential to lower GWP impacts ............................. 68 Figure 6-1. Web survey: Minimum lead time needed to transition to <750 GWP refrigerants following code finalization ........................................................................................................... 70 Figure 6-2. Web survey: Anticipated most common HVAC refrigerant installed in 2025 ....................... 71 Figure 6-3. Web survey: Are <750-GWP refrigerant-only retrofits practical? ...................................... 73 Figure 6-4. Web survey: Ways to improve end-of-life refrigerant reclamation .................................... 73 DNV GL