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Pdf09/09Wpds Fr.Pdf 2010 111 111 Collectif d’auteurs Dirigé par Michelle Côté, Ph.D. 1 Section recherche et planification Page Service du développement stratégique Direction Stratégique 1 Sous la direction de Michelle Côté, Ph.D. LECTURE DE L’ENVIRONNEMENT DU SERVICE DE POLICE DE LA VILLE DE MONTRÉAL COLLECTIF D’AUTEURS ÉQUIPE RECHERCHE ET PLANIFICATION DU SPVM Isabelle Billette, M.Sc. Rémi Boivin, M.Sc. Anne Chamandy, M.Sc. Mathieu Charest, Ph.D. Gilbert Cordeau, Ph.D. Michelle Côté, Ph.D. Valérie Courville, M.Sc. Maurizio D.Elia, M.Sc. Julie Rosa, B.Sc. COLLABORATEURS Alain Cardinal, LL.M., SPVM Richard Linteau, M.Sc., Université de Sherbrooke Frédéric Ouellet, M.Sc., Université de Montréal Nathalie Pelletier, B.A., SPVM Robert Hogue, Jean-Marc Labbée, Manon Landry, François Landry, Daniel Têtu, Charles Rabbat, Luc Saint-Onge, Réjean Toutant, Érik Vincent, de la Direction de l’administration du SPVM Révision: Isabelle Billette, Karine L’Écuyer et Julie Rosa Photo de la couverture : Jean-Pierre Kerten Conception graphique et mise en pages : Micheline Sawyer Impression : Imprime-Emploi Imprimé au Canada © Service de police de la Ville de Montréal ISBN 978-2-922389-180-0 Dépôt légal – Bibliothèque et Archives nationales du Québec et Bibliothèque et Archives Canada, 2e trimestre 2010 TABLE DES MATIÈRES TABLE DES MATIÈRES INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 LE CONTEXTE DÉMOGRAPHIQUE ET ÉCONOMIQUE ............................................................................................................................. 19 Les tendances démographiques ............................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Taille de la population .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Croissance de la population ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Tendances de la natalité : davantage au nord, moins au sud .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 Tendances de la mortalité : un monde qui se masculinise ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Causes de décès ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Tendances de la migration ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Le Canada parmi les champions de l’immigration ................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Rétention des immigrants .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Structure par âge à Montréal ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 La place de Montréal au palmarès des villes du monde ......................................................................................................................................... 26 Palmarès des villes les plus populeuses ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Palmarès des villes d’importance stratégique ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Palmarès du coût de la vie ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Palmarès des villes qui offrent la meilleure qualité de vie ................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Palmarès des villes où le pouvoir d’achat est le meilleur ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Palmarès des villes les mieux équipées ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Sortie de récession ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Une croissance modérée est attendue ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Instabilité économique ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Risque de récession à double creux ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Imperfection des indicateurs................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29 Des banques peu réglementées ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 L’exception des banques canadiennes ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Une crise économique inégalement ressentie ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Déplacements des principales zones d’activités ................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Pauvreté à nouveau croissante sur la planète ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Bulle spéculative dans les pays émergents ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 La Chine pourra‐t‐elle maintenir sa forte croissance ? ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Protectionnisme à la hausse ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Risque de déflation ou d’inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35 Explosion de l’endettement .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 Une dette qu’il faudra repayer ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 Une dette des ménages qui pèse sur l’économie ................................................................................................................................................................................
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