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Appendice Metodologica Del Capitolo 1 Appendice metodologica del Capitolo 1 Metodologia seguita per la creazione di un indice di presenza mafiosa a livello comunale L’attività di mappatura ha preso spunto dalle considerazioni più recenti elaborate nella letteratura scientifica sul tema (Calderoni e Caneppele 2009; Calderoni 2011; Abbate e Mirto 2011; Asmundo 2011; Busso e Storti 2011). In particolare, un recente studio ha misurato (creando il Mafia index) la presenza mafiosa a livello provinciale per il periodo 1983-2009 in tutte le province italiane (Calderoni 2011). Lo studio in primo luogo notava l’assenza, nonostante i numerosi studi sul tema della criminalità organizzata, di adeguati tentativi di misurazione dell’intensità del fenomeno. Rilevava inoltre che i tentativi intrapresi nella letteratura mostravano limiti e difetti talvolta anche molto gravi. L’elaborazione del Mafia index presentato nello studio rispondeva invece a diversi criteri metodologici, quali la misurazione delle diverse dimensioni della criminalità organizzata, la disponibilità temporale dei dati, la loro validità di contenuto (se le variabili misurano effettivamente il fenomeno oggetto di analisi) e la validità di criterio (se le variabili sono statisticamente correlate tra loro). Si dimostrava così che non era necessario l’utilizzo di numerose fonti di dati e che l’utilizzo di quattro indicatori portava ad una misurazione attendibile della presenza mafiosa99. Per il progetto, la metodologia ha cercato di sviluppare il Mafia index nelle seguenti direzioni: ricognizione per: • Individuare nuove fonti di dati; • Aggiornamento delle fonti di dati all’ultimo anno disponibile; • Restrizione del periodo osservato ad un periodo più recente; • Misurazione a livello comunale della presenza mafiosa; • Utilizzo di un sistema di “spalmatura” della presenza mafiosa sulla base dell’assunto che il fenomeno registrato in un punto sia indicatore anche di ciò che avviene nelle aree circostanti; • Suddivisione della presenza mafiosa tra diversi tipi di organizzazioni criminali. Ricognizione delle fonti Come già ricordato, il Comitato scientifico del progetto aveva concordato in data 16 Aprile 2012 di procedere alla mappatura delle organizzazioni criminali secondo due direzioni: in primo luogo, richiedere dati, stime o altre valutazioni sulla presenza di orga- nizzazioni criminali sul territorio a vari soggetti istituzionali (Ministero dell’Interno, DIA, DNA); in subordine, o a completamento di queste informazioni, di procedere ad un’autonoma analisi di dati statistici e delle fonti aperte disponibili. Rispetto alle fonti istituzionali, sono stati presi contatti con il Ministero dell’Interno, con la DIA e la DNA. Ministero dell’Interno. È stato contattato il Servizio Analisi Criminale (Dipartimento Centrale della Polizia Criminale del Ministero dell’Interno) per verificare la disponibilità e l’aggiornamento dei dati statistici e del progetto MA.Cr.O (Mappa Criminalità Organiz- zata). Dati statistici. Il Servizio ha fornito dati aggiornati al 31 dicembre 2011 a livello comunale sui reati denunciati estratti dalla banca dati SDI. In seguito a specifica richiesta, il Servizio Analisi Criminale ha fornito anche il numero di persone denunciate per il delitto di associazione mafiosa nel periodo 2004-2011 a livello comunale. Progetto MA.CR.O. Ha la finalità di mappare le organizzazioni mafiose attive sul territorio italiano. Il progetto è menzionato per la prima volta nella relazione DIA del secondo semestre 2006 ed alcuni risultati preliminari sono utilizzati dal 2007 (DIA 2006; DIA 2007a; DIA 2007b; DIA 2008b; DIA 2009b; DIA 2010b; DIA 2010a; DIA 2011b). Vista la corrispondenza del Progetto MA.CR.O. con l’obiettivo di mappare la presenza di organizzazioni criminali sul territorio, è stato richiesto al Servizio Analisi Criminale di fornire alcuni dati per contribuire all’esercizio di mappatura. Il Servizio (II divisione) ha prontamente risposto, rilevando tuttavia che lo sviluppo del progetto era ancora in fase intermedia e non era possibile fornire dati utili ai fini del progetto. Direzione investigativa antimafia. Ha escluso la disponibilità di stime dei clan e delle organizzazioni criminali presenti sul terri- torio, al di fuori delle prime sperimentazioni del progetto MA.CR.O. Direzione nazionale antimafia. Non è stato possibile avere accesso alla banca dati SIDNA per ragioni di riservatezza delle infor- mazioni contenute e non sono state fornite ulteriori informazioni utili alla mappatura. 99 Le variabili scelte erano omicidi di stampo mafioso, associazioni mafiose, scioglimenti di consigli comunali e beni confiscati alla criminalità organizzata (Calderoni 2011, 58). APPENDICE METODOLOGICA 283 A causa dell’impossibilità di reperire e raccogliere stime e dati sul numero di organizzazioni criminali presenti sul territorio da fonti istituzionali, si è deciso di elaborare una mappatura basata su dati statistici e fonti aperte. Le fonti statistiche utilizzate sono state: • Omicidi e tentati omicidi di stampo mafioso, 2004-2011, fonte SDI; • Persone denunciate per associazione mafiosa, 2004-2011, fonte SDI; • Comuni e pubbliche amministrazioni sciolte per infiltrazione mafiosa, 2000-2012 (Agosto), fonte Ministero dell’Interno; • Beni confiscati alla criminalità organizzata, 2000-2011, fonte ANBSC e Agenzia del Demanio. Tra le fonti aperte, si è deciso di provvedere ad un’analisi sistematica delle relazioni della DNA e della DIA dal 2000 al 2011. Analisi delle relazioni della DNA e della DIA L’analisi delle fonti aperte si è basata sulle relazioni redatte dal 2000 al 2011 dalla Direzione Nazionale Antimafia e dalla Direzio- ne Investigativa Antimafia. In particolare, sono state analizzate 24 relazioni semestrali della DIA (1° semestre 2000-2° semestre 2011) e 11 relazioni annuali della DNA100. Ogni relazione è stata analizzata per individuare i singoli gruppi criminali, il tipo di organizzazione criminale di origine (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, ‘Ndrangheta, Criminalità Organizzata pugliese e Altre organizzazioni criminali) e il territorio sul quale gli stessi erano presenti (comune o provincia). Le informazioni sono state inserite all’interno di due database a livello comunale, uno per la DIA e uno la DNA. A partire dalle informazioni estratte, per ciascuna relazione, sono state elaborate le seguenti variabili: • Presenza dei gruppi nel comune; • Presenza dei gruppi nella provincia101; • Numero dei gruppi nel comune; • Numero dei gruppi nella provincia; • Nome dei gruppi nel comune; • Nome dei gruppi nella provincia; • Numero di gruppi appartenenti a ciascun tipo di organizzazione mafiosa nel comune; • Numero di gruppi appartenenti a ciascun tipo di organizzazione mafiosa nella provincia; • Pagine delle relazioni in cui le informazioni sono state rilevate. In seguito, sono stati calcolati, per entrambi i database, combinando i dati di tutte le relazioni: • Il valore totale e medio della presenza di gruppi mafiosi nel comune e nella provincia; • Il valore totale e medio del numero dei gruppi nel comune e nella provincia; • L’elenco dei gruppi operanti nel comune e nella provincia; • Il valore totale e medio del numero dei gruppi appartenenti a ciascun tipo di organizzazione mafiosa nel comune e nella provincia; • Dieci variabili dicotomiche (una per ogni possibile coppia tra i 5 tipi di organizzazioni mafiose) rilevanti la compresenza (a livello comunale e/o provinciale) di due tipi di organizzazioni mafiose nel comune; • Una variabile dicotomica rilevante la compresenza (a livello comunale e/o provinciale) di almeno due tipi di organizzazio- ni mafiose nel comune; • Una variabile rilevante il numero di compresenze tra tipi di organizzazioni mafiose; • Una variabile rilevante quali tipi di organizzazioni mafiose fosse presenti a livello comunale e/o provinciale; • Una variabile rilevante quali tipi di organizzazioni mafiose fosse presenti a livello comunale; • Una variabile rilevante quali tipi di organizzazioni mafiose fosse presenti a livello provinciale. Infine, i due database sono stati combinati, calcolando la somma e la media delle variabili sopra elencate. 100 Per quanto riguarda le relazioni annuali della DNA, non è stato possibile trovare la relazione 2003. Il documento è stato richiesto sia alla DNA che alla biblioteca della Commissione Parlamentare Antimafia, ma le richieste hanno avuto esito negativo. 101 In caso di presenza di gruppi all’interno di una provincia senza specificazione dei comuni interessati, le variabili sono state attribuite a tutti i comuni della provincia. 284 Misurazione della presenza delle organizzazioni criminali sul territorio nazionale La prima analisi condotta dai dati ottenuti è consistita in un tentativo di stimare un valore di presenza delle organizzazioni criminali su tutto il territorio italiano. Come già ricordato in precedenza, l’innovatività di questa mappatura risiede da un lato nel dettaglio spaziale utilizzato, il livello comunale, e dall’altro nella possibilità di combinare dati di diversa natura in modo da comprendere all’interno dell’indicatore finale differenti aspetti del fenomeno mafioso. Le componenti dell’indice di presenza delle organizzazioni mafiose Essendo le fonti e la natura dei dati utilizzati molto diverse tra loro si è reso necessario adottare dei trattamenti specifici al fine di ottenere dei valori comparabili. In particolare l’obiettivo è stato quello di arrivare a calcolare per ciascuna delle cinque componenti individuate un indice su base 1.000. La procedura utilizzata è riassunta nei seguenti passaggi. Denunciati per associazione mafiosa Per i
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