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How Fluctuations in the Value of Cocaine Markets Influence the Recourse to Lethal Violence

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How Fluctuations in the Value of Cocaine Markets Influence the Recourse to Lethal Violence International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis UNIVERSITÁ CATTOLICA DEL SACRO CUORE MILANO Dottorato di ricerca in Criminologia Ciclo XXIX S.S.D: SPS/12 Shrinking businesses and expanding graveyards: how fluctuations in the value of cocaine markets influence the recourse to lethal violence Tesi di Dottorato di: Alberto Aziani Matricola: 4 2 1 2 2 2 7 Anno Accademico 2015/2016 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis Cycle XXIX Shrinking businesses and expanding graveyards: how fluctuations in the value of cocaine markets influence the recourse to lethal violence Ph.D. Thesis Alberto Aziani Academic Year 2015/2016 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis 5 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis Abstract Many scholars have investigated the escalation of violence associated with drug trafficking. Despite the plethora of literature, limited attention has been paid to the consequences of fluctuations in the value of markets. This study addresses this lacuna in extant research by proposing an original estimate of the gross value added of cocaine markets in 151 countries between the period 1998-2013, taking into consideration both national and international dimensions of cocaine trafficking through recourse to a flow/network approach. In conjunction with this, the fluctuation of the gross value added of the cocaine market is examined in terms of an etiological factor in the upsurge of interpersonal lethal violence. The analysis demonstrates how expansions and contractions of the gross value added in cocaine markets are significant determinants of the level of violence within the respective countries that constitute the global cocaine network. Finally, through mobilising innovative methods for estimating drug law enforcement actions, the study problematizes extant methods for disrupting drug trafficking on the basis that they may, paradoxically, engender cycles of violence. 6 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... 9 List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. 10 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................ 11 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 12 I Chapter: Studying the determinants of violence, with a focus on drugs ................................... 16 I.1 Differences in violence level ............................................................................................. 17 I.2 Criminological theories of violence .................................................................................. 18 I.2.1 Drug and violence ..................................................................................................... 19 I.2.2 The value of drug markets and violence .................................................................... 36 I.2.3 Structural and cultural theories of violence ............................................................... 49 I.1 Relevance of the topic ....................................................................................................... 61 I.1.1 The consequences of drug related violence ............................................................... 67 I.2 Research problem .............................................................................................................. 74 II Chapter: Empirical methodology .............................................................................................. 80 II.3 Illicit profits estimation strategy ........................................................................................ 83 II.3.1 Identifying and weighting the cocaine flows (Step 1) ............................................... 84 II.3.2 Sizing the markets (Step 2)........................................................................................ 95 II.3.3 Sizing the cocaine flows (Step 3) ............................................................................ 128 II.3.4 Estimating the gross value added (Step 4) .............................................................. 132 II.4 Construction and selection of measures concerning drug markets and structural theories of violence ......................................................................................................................................... 142 II.4.1 Dependent variable .................................................................................................. 142 II.4.2 Explanatory variables .............................................................................................. 144 II.5 Econometric methodology............................................................................................... 157 7 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis II.5.1 The system GMM estimators .................................................................................. 157 II.5.2 Testing for overidentification and for autocorrelation ............................................ 161 II.5.3 The specific estimation strategy .............................................................................. 161 III Chapter: The fluctuation-homicide relationship .................................................................. 165 IV Chapter: Discussion ............................................................................................................. 177 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 191 References ...................................................................................................................................... 198 Annex I: flow/network model ........................................................................................................ 275 Annex II: econometric evidences ................................................................................................... 285 8 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis List of Tables Table 1. Proportions of cocaine users by user group and country in Trautmann, Kilmer, and Turnbull (2013) and as reaggregated according to Everingham and Rydell’s (1994) ........................ 114 Table 2. Estimate of the number of consumption-days in the past 12 months ............................... 119 Table 3. Descriptive statistics of used variables for the 63 countries included in the econometric analysis, years 1999-2013 ................................................................................................................... 144 Table 4. Set I. Effect of cocaine trafficking and structural characteristics of a country on homicide rates, years 1999-2013 unbalanced panel of 62-63 countries .............................................................. 166 Table 5. Significance and expected signs of correlations investigated in models (1) to (5) .......... 167 Table 6. Set II. Effect of cocaine trafficking and structural characteristics of a country, including GDP growth, infant mortality, and region on homicide rates, years 1999-2013 unbalanced panel of 63 countries (models 5 to 7) and 65 countries (model 8). ........................................................................ 171 Table 7. Average prices after check and imputation, three estimates at street level and three estimates at wholesale level ................................................................................................................ 279 Table 8. Average purity-adjusted prices, three estimates at street level and three estimates at wholesale level .................................................................................................................................... 280 9 International Ph.D. in Criminology – Ph.D. Thesis List of Figures Figure 1. The sample of 63 countries used for the econometric analysis ......................................... 81 Figure 2. Global cocaine trafficking network .................................................................................. 94 Figure 3. Best estimate of the adjusted prevalence, 1997-2014 average ........................................ 110 Figure 4. Adopted approach to estimate the share of heavy and light users .................................. 117 Figure 5. Comparison with Kilmer and Pacula’s (2009) estimate of cocaine consumption in 2005 in Canada and in the United States (metric tons) .................................................................................... 120 Figure 6. Comparison with Kilmer and Pacula’s (2009) estimate of adulterated cocaine consumption in 2005 (metric tons) ...................................................................................................... 122 Figure 7. Volume of seizures, average 1997-2014 ......................................................................... 126 Figure 8. A graphic representation of the sizing of the flows ........................................................ 131
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