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Sub-National Report for Serbia and Montenegro (SCG): Events, Forecasting and Analysis

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Sub-National Report for Serbia and Montenegro (SCG): Events, Forecasting and Analysis Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis s Sub-national Report for Serbia and Montenegro (SCG): Events, Forecasting and Analysis FINAL REPORT Report Prepared by: Liz St. Jean With support from: David Carment Adam Fysh Stewart Prest Copyright: not to be cited, duplicated or circulated without permission Feedback is welcome, and may be sent to [email protected] http://www.carleton.ca/cifp Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis PART A: OVERVIEW 3 1. NOTE 3 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3. EVENT TRENDS SUMMARY 6 4. FORECASTING 8 PART B: DETAIL 9 5. PROFILE 9 6. STAKEHOLDERS 11 7. SUB-NATIONAL RISK INDICATORS 13 7.1. SUMMARY 13 7.2. RISK INDICATORS BY CLUSTER 14 8. EVENTS DATA: TRENDS AND ANALYSIS 18 8.1. SUMMARY 18 8.2. PRIMARY DRIVERS 19 8.3. SECONDARY DRIVERS 22 PART C: ANNEX 23 9. SUMMARY OF DATA 23 10. TREND LINE CHARTS 24 10.1. ALL EVENTS 24 10.2. STABILIZING EVENTS 25 10.3. DESTABILIZING EVENTS 26 11. MAPS 27 12. BIBLIOGRAPHY 28 12.1. EVENT SOURCES 28 12.2. BIBLIOGRAPHY 30 13. METHODOLOGY 35 13.1. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS MONITORING 35 13.2. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS DATA COLLECTION 37 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 2 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis Part A: Overview 1. Note About this Report decided to adopt some elements of GEOPOL to meet the needs of policy This sub-national report has been makers, the academic community and the produced by the Country Indicators for private sector. The CIFP project as it Foreign Policy (CIFP) for use by non- became known has since then operated governmental organizations, businesses, under the guidance of principal academics, Canadian policy-makers, and investigator David Carment of Carleton other parties concerned with the current University and has received funding from and future state of sub-national regions. DFAIT, IDRC and CIDA. The project This Events Monitoring Profile is based on represents an on-going effort to identify a fusion of CIFP Risk Assessment and and assemble statistical information Events Monitoring methodologies.1 conveying the key features of the political, economic, social and cultural About the Author environments of countries around the world. Liz St. Jean is a research analyst for CIFP. Her area of study is international conflict The cross-national data generated through management, with a focus on CIFP was intended to have a variety of humanitarian intervention. Her current applications in government departments, research examines the factors involved in NGOs, and by users in the private sector. decisions regarding the use of force in The data set provides at-a-glance global peace operations. She has studied overviews, issue-based perspectives and economics as well as international country performance measures. Currently, relations at the University of British the data set includes measures of Columbia. She spent a year working on an domestic armed conflict, governance and independent research project that political instability, militarisation, religious involved three months in Northern and ethnic diversity, demographic stress, Uganda, and a month in Rwanda. economic performance, human development, environmental stress, and About CIFP international linkages. CIFP has its origins in a prototype The CIFP database currently includes geopolitical database developed by the statistical data in the above issue areas, in Canadian Department of National Defence the form of over one hundred in 1991. The prototype project called performance indicators for 196 countries, GEOPOL covered a wide range of political, spanning fifteen years (1985 to 2000) for economic, social, military, and most indicators. These indicators are environmental indicators through the drawn from a variety of open sources, medium of a rating system. In 1997, including the World Bank, the United under the guidance of Andre Ouellete, Nations Development Programme, the John Patterson, Tony Kellett and Paul United Nations High Commissioner for Sutherland, the Canadian Department of Refugees, the Stockholm International Foreign Affairs and International Trade Peace Research Institute, and the Minorities at Risk and POLITY IV data sets from the University of Maryland. 1 For information on the structural risk assessment, see Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2001) Risk Assessment Template, Available: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/docs/studra1101.pdf. Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 3 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis 2. Executive Summary Profile conflicts, SCG has experienced major • Serbia and Montenegro emerged from economic decline since 1990 and has the 1990s to take over the legacy of since struggled to recover Yugoslavia following a decade of warfare. The wars were caused by Baseline analysis disputes between the republics over • Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) is a territory, and the fighting was medium-risk region with a score of 6.15. characterized by ethnic fears and The primary cause of this score is SCG’s hostility. As a result of the wars, four of history of ethnic violence, civil conflict the six republics have split into and international intervention that independent states. Kosovo experienced during 1990s. This • The relationship between the two has resulted in political instability as well remaining republics, Serbia and as problems between ethnic groups and Montenegro, remains uneasy. The 2003 within the economic sphere. Belgrade agreement created the State Union (SCG) was signed under duress Event Trends and provides for either side to hold • Events were monitored between 19 independence referendums. SCG is loose October 2005 and 2 May 2006. at best, and Montenegro’s future • Event scores support the baseline remains one, if not the, key issue of conclusion that SCG is a risky region. significance to SCG stability. • The trend analysis concluded that the • Governance stability is further trend in SCG is moderately negative, threatened by political rivalries within due to a strongly negative trend among each republic. Compounding this is the destabilizing events, which outweighs poor economic condition and general the moderately positive trend among low-level well-being within SCG. Due to stabilizing events. international sanctions and the various Figure 1. Chart of trend lines for all events and the count of events by week Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis Primary drivers of event trends Note: Serbia and Montenegro were • The Governance and Political Stability analysed together rather than separately trend was moderately negative due to due to the intertwined nature of politics in heightening tensions over the proposed these two republics. As the analysis capture of Mladic, Montenegro’s driver demonstrates below, the main source of towards independence, and general potential conflict for both regions relates political conflict; to the relationship between the two • Economic Performance had a moderately republics and the territory of SCG. History positive trend as the economy generally demonstrates that most events will affect expanded and the government both regions; this is also reflected by the introduced reforms and economic fact that the vast majority of analysts initiatives; combine the regions when performing • The International Linkages trend held at analyses (see bibliography). Indeed, of the status quo, as there were both the all events covered by the analysis positive events, such as the initiation of (661 events in total), only 8% affected the stabilization and association Montenegro alone and only 16% affected Serbia alone. Scenarios • Most likely case: Although political tensions continue in SCG, and the 700 situation is ripe for political or ethnic 600 All events violence. The referendum occurs without 500 Events affecting both violence, but exacerbates tensions. 400 Serbia and Montenegro • Best case: Despite the continuing Events affecting 300 tensions, the situation does not escalate Montenegro and the referendum occurs smoothly 200 Events affecting Serbia with minimal protest, violent or 100 otherwise. 0 • Worst case: tensions among political players escalate dramatically and both Serbia and Montenegro governments are Events affecting threatened or even toppled by Serbia opposition. 16% Events Conclusion affecting Montenegro • SCG is in a tenuous position and thus 8% vulnerable to trigger events. • Should major events, such as the Montenegro referendum, set off political unrest, it is highly possible that it will Events unleash waves of violence. affecting both • However, should negative trends be Serbia and rectified, SCG may start to experience Montenegro 76% positive trends, as suggested by Economic Performance. Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 5 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis 3. Event Trends Summary Overall General Trend The occurrence and magnitude of Montenegro’s progression towards destabilizing events have increased independence; and
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