Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
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Sub-national Report for Serbia and Montenegro (SCG): Events, Forecasting and Analysis
FINAL REPORT
Report Prepared by: Liz St. Jean
With support from: David Carment Adam Fysh Stewart Prest
Copyright: not to be cited, duplicated or circulated without permission
Feedback is welcome, and may be sent to [email protected] http://www.carleton.ca/cifp
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
PART A: OVERVIEW 3
1. NOTE 3 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3. EVENT TRENDS SUMMARY 6 4. FORECASTING 8
PART B: DETAIL 9
5. PROFILE 9 6. STAKEHOLDERS 11 7. SUB-NATIONAL RISK INDICATORS 13 7.1. SUMMARY 13 7.2. RISK INDICATORS BY CLUSTER 14 8. EVENTS DATA: TRENDS AND ANALYSIS 18 8.1. SUMMARY 18 8.2. PRIMARY DRIVERS 19 8.3. SECONDARY DRIVERS 22
PART C: ANNEX 23
9. SUMMARY OF DATA 23 10. TREND LINE CHARTS 24 10.1. ALL EVENTS 24 10.2. STABILIZING EVENTS 25 10.3. DESTABILIZING EVENTS 26 11. MAPS 27 12. BIBLIOGRAPHY 28 12.1. EVENT SOURCES 28 12.2. BIBLIOGRAPHY 30 13. METHODOLOGY 35 13.1. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS MONITORING 35 13.2. DESCRIPTION OF EVENTS DATA COLLECTION 37
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 2 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
Part A: Overview
1. Note
About this Report decided to adopt some elements of GEOPOL to meet the needs of policy This sub-national report has been makers, the academic community and the produced by the Country Indicators for private sector. The CIFP project as it Foreign Policy (CIFP) for use by non- became known has since then operated governmental organizations, businesses, under the guidance of principal academics, Canadian policy-makers, and investigator David Carment of Carleton other parties concerned with the current University and has received funding from and future state of sub-national regions. DFAIT, IDRC and CIDA. The project This Events Monitoring Profile is based on represents an on-going effort to identify a fusion of CIFP Risk Assessment and and assemble statistical information Events Monitoring methodologies.1 conveying the key features of the political, economic, social and cultural About the Author environments of countries around the world. Liz St. Jean is a research analyst for CIFP. Her area of study is international conflict The cross-national data generated through management, with a focus on CIFP was intended to have a variety of humanitarian intervention. Her current applications in government departments, research examines the factors involved in NGOs, and by users in the private sector. decisions regarding the use of force in The data set provides at-a-glance global peace operations. She has studied overviews, issue-based perspectives and economics as well as international country performance measures. Currently, relations at the University of British the data set includes measures of Columbia. She spent a year working on an domestic armed conflict, governance and independent research project that political instability, militarisation, religious involved three months in Northern and ethnic diversity, demographic stress, Uganda, and a month in Rwanda. economic performance, human development, environmental stress, and About CIFP international linkages.
CIFP has its origins in a prototype The CIFP database currently includes geopolitical database developed by the statistical data in the above issue areas, in Canadian Department of National Defence the form of over one hundred in 1991. The prototype project called performance indicators for 196 countries, GEOPOL covered a wide range of political, spanning fifteen years (1985 to 2000) for economic, social, military, and most indicators. These indicators are environmental indicators through the drawn from a variety of open sources, medium of a rating system. In 1997, including the World Bank, the United under the guidance of Andre Ouellete, Nations Development Programme, the John Patterson, Tony Kellett and Paul United Nations High Commissioner for Sutherland, the Canadian Department of Refugees, the Stockholm International Foreign Affairs and International Trade Peace Research Institute, and the Minorities at Risk and POLITY IV data sets from the University of Maryland. 1 For information on the structural risk assessment, see Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2001) Risk Assessment Template, Available: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/docs/studra1101.pdf.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 3 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
2. Executive Summary
Profile conflicts, SCG has experienced major • Serbia and Montenegro emerged from economic decline since 1990 and has the 1990s to take over the legacy of since struggled to recover Yugoslavia following a decade of warfare. The wars were caused by Baseline analysis disputes between the republics over • Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) is a territory, and the fighting was medium-risk region with a score of 6.15. characterized by ethnic fears and The primary cause of this score is SCG’s hostility. As a result of the wars, four of history of ethnic violence, civil conflict the six republics have split into and international intervention that independent states. Kosovo experienced during 1990s. This • The relationship between the two has resulted in political instability as well remaining republics, Serbia and as problems between ethnic groups and Montenegro, remains uneasy. The 2003 within the economic sphere. Belgrade agreement created the State Union (SCG) was signed under duress Event Trends and provides for either side to hold • Events were monitored between 19 independence referendums. SCG is loose October 2005 and 2 May 2006. at best, and Montenegro’s future • Event scores support the baseline remains one, if not the, key issue of conclusion that SCG is a risky region. significance to SCG stability. • The trend analysis concluded that the • Governance stability is further trend in SCG is moderately negative, threatened by political rivalries within due to a strongly negative trend among each republic. Compounding this is the destabilizing events, which outweighs poor economic condition and general the moderately positive trend among low-level well-being within SCG. Due to stabilizing events. international sanctions and the various
Figure 1. Chart of trend lines for all events and the count of events by week
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
Primary drivers of event trends Note: Serbia and Montenegro were • The Governance and Political Stability analysed together rather than separately trend was moderately negative due to due to the intertwined nature of politics in heightening tensions over the proposed these two republics. As the analysis capture of Mladic, Montenegro’s driver demonstrates below, the main source of towards independence, and general potential conflict for both regions relates political conflict; to the relationship between the two • Economic Performance had a moderately republics and the territory of SCG. History positive trend as the economy generally demonstrates that most events will affect expanded and the government both regions; this is also reflected by the introduced reforms and economic fact that the vast majority of analysts initiatives; combine the regions when performing • The International Linkages trend held at analyses (see bibliography). Indeed, of the status quo, as there were both the all events covered by the analysis positive events, such as the initiation of (661 events in total), only 8% affected the stabilization and association Montenegro alone and only 16% affected Serbia alone. Scenarios • Most likely case: Although political tensions continue in SCG, and the 700 situation is ripe for political or ethnic 600 All events violence. The referendum occurs without 500 Events affecting both violence, but exacerbates tensions. 400 Serbia and Montenegro • Best case: Despite the continuing Events affecting 300 tensions, the situation does not escalate Montenegro and the referendum occurs smoothly 200 Events affecting Serbia with minimal protest, violent or 100 otherwise. 0 • Worst case: tensions among political players escalate dramatically and both Serbia and Montenegro governments are Events affecting threatened or even toppled by Serbia opposition. 16% Events Conclusion affecting Montenegro • SCG is in a tenuous position and thus 8% vulnerable to trigger events. • Should major events, such as the Montenegro referendum, set off political unrest, it is highly possible that it will Events unleash waves of violence. affecting both • However, should negative trends be Serbia and rectified, SCG may start to experience Montenegro 76% positive trends, as suggested by Economic Performance.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 5 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
3. Event Trends Summary
Overall
General Trend
The occurrence and magnitude of Montenegro’s progression towards destabilizing events have increased independence; and the hostility significantly over the past six months, between political parties in both outweighing the positive trend among Republics. stabilizing events. Economic Performance is the sole The main source of the trend lies in positive cluster. It not only shows an the Governance and Political Instability indication of improvement, but also and International Linkages clusters. possesses positive average event This is due to a number of factors, scores. including Serbia’s continual comments that they will capture Mladic;
Primary Drivers
Primary drivers are those clusters that Some capital flight and low contain more than twenty-five events. expectations for future growth among These clusters are the main areas of the population activity in the region, with the greatest Serb complaints of lack of participation contribution to the overall trend. in privatisation efforts
Economic Performance International Linkages General Trend General Trend Expanding economy and positive government reforms. Mounting pressure with regional states Continuation and apparent success of and organizations, particularly the EU, privatisation efforts. over Mladic’s capture as well as Montenegro’s referendum. Governance and Political Simultaneous international praise for Instability SCG’s reforms and cooperation with the EU on issues unrelated to Mladic. General Trend
Continued and relatively successful privatisation, international assistance
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 6 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
Secondary Drivers
Secondary drivers are those clusters with Environmental Stress less than twenty-five monitored events. These clusters provide supplementary Multiple environmental crises, information to the overall analysis. including flooding, avian flu and a minor earthquake. Armed Conflict Demographic Stress Incidences of low level violence; could provide a future trigger event Continuation of the risk of IDP movement and stress on urban Militarization settings.
Despite reforms, difficulties within SCG Human Development military and between Serbia and Montenegro over control of the army. Some positive events, such as the opening of a national HIV/AIDS office. Population Heterogeneity Lack of heating, school strikes point towards overall lack of human Efforts to address ethnic tensions, development. including conferences and economic assistance. Events are accurate as of May 2, 2006 Incidences of hate graffiti.
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4. Forecasting
parties accept the outcome with minor Most Likely Case objections. Corruption reforms prove to be robust, bringing about a reduction in corruption levels. Military reforms advance In the most likely case SCG civilian control over the military; Ministry experiences moderate deterioration of Defense is able to overcome financial of its political situation, but is unlikely difficulties. Ethnic groups are able to come to rise to a higher risk level. to an agreement with the government over their status and rights. The economy SCG maintains positive relations with its improves, employment levels climb from neighbours. The government continues to job creation due to increased FDI, and implement both economic and governance inflation is brought down to a single digit. reforms; some are successful while others SCG is able to reach a major cooperation fail. The economy grows but also agreement among Balkan states, such as experiences instability from inflation and a Free Trade area, border security or continued unemployment. Ethnic tensions crime control. SAA talks begin again and persist but do not erupt into violence; are pursued successfully. The BiH events indicate positive changes, but the genocide case is settled with minimal situation remains volatile and poised to tensions. SCG continues its environmental explode. The Montenegrin referendum is reforms and there are no further accomplished with minimal friction and disasters. Human development advances electoral irregularities; the outcome is amidst further programs and reforms. considered legitimate internationally and locally, although some groups engage in Worst Case active but non-violent protest. The political situation in Montenegro In the worst case, SCG experiences deteriorates regardless of the outcome. strong deterioration, and it is likely to Serbia continues to promise to take action rise to a higher risk level. on the Mladic issue, but fails to do so. Extremist groups remain disorganized and Serbia continues to be unwilling or unable the opposition fails to bring down the to find Mladic, despite public claims to the government, although tensions remain contrary. Opposition groups escalate their high. The international community anti-government rhetoric and action, continues to place pressure on Serbia, but resulting in a vote of non-confidence. The leave the reopening of SAA talks open. government falls and extremist groups are brought to power. The international Best Case community pulls back from SCG, and neighbours indicate strong disapproval of In the best case, SCG will experience the new government. The Montenegrin a status quo situation and unlikely to referendum is conducted amidst move beyond the medium-risk allegations of election fraud and sporadic category. violence. Violence within Montenegro rises, tensions mount between Serbia and Serbia is able to quickly find Mladic and Montenegro, and the military is deployed. hand him over to the ICTY, satisfying As a result, there is massive capital flight, international demands and bringing and the economy plummets, causing an closure to an issue that plagues domestic increase in both unemployment and politics. Anti-ICTY parties protest, but do inflation. Widespread protest among the not escalate tensions. Montenegro population begins, inflaming ethnic conducts its referendum peacefully and all tensions.
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Part B: Detail
5. Profile
Serbia and Montenegro emerged from the Yugoslavia (FRY), which consisted of 1990s to take over the legacy of Serbia, Montenegro and the disputed Yugoslavia following a decade of warfare. provinces. In 1998, tensions intensified in The Socialist Federal Republic of Kosovo over the Albanian Kosovars’ desire Yugoslavia originally consisted of a union for independence, and Serbian forces between six republics and two clashed with the Kosovo Liberation Army autonomous provinces,2 each of which (KLA).7 contained a diverse mix of ethnic groups.3 Yugoslavia held together during Josip The international community imposed Tito’s reign4, but after his death, it began sanctions in response to both the BiH and to destabilize in the 1980s. Conflict Kosovo conflicts. Militarily, the United existed among the republics due to their Nations became involved in a dispute over Yugoslavia’s future peacekeeping mission to Bosnia, and governance and territory.5 This devolved NATO engaged in a bombing campaign in to war in the 1990s, largely under the response to Serbia’s actions in Kosovo and direction of Slobodan Milosevic, President their refusal to sign a peace agreement. of Serbia (1989-1997) and Yugoslavia Serbia eventually capitulated, leading to (1997-2000). The warring was the United Nations designating Kosovo an characterized by ethnic fears and hostility; international protectorate. Kosovo is for instance, Milosevic effectively largely administered by the United Nations provoked Serbian resentment over losing Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) with a NATO control of the autonomous provinces of protection force (KFOR), although some Vojvodina and Kosovo.6 In the early services are run by local government. 1990s, Serbian forces engaged in short Many Serbs and Roma fled out of fear of wars with Croatia and Slovenia, and a Albanian reprisals and now live as longer, vicious war in Bosnia and internally displaced persons within Serbia Herzegovina (BiH). The result was the and Montenegro. For more information on independence of four republics and the Kosovo stability, see CIFP (2006) Events creation of the Federal Republic of Monitoring Profile: Kosovo.
2 The republics included Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Slobodan Milosevic eventually lost his hold Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia; the on power, was arrested, and then sent to provinces were Kosovo and Vojvodina. the International Criminal Tribunal for the 3 Main ethnic groups included Serbs, Bosniaks (also Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to be tried for identified as Muslims) Albanians, Hungarians, Montenegrins, Roma, Croats, Slovenes, and crimes against humanity. This proved Macedonians. contentious within Serbia; many Serbs, 4 Josip Tito led the Yugoslav federation from 1945 civilians, officials and armed forces until his death; during this period he maintained the officers alike do not believe in cooperating union by balancing power between the republics and 8 provinces. He attempted to create a union free from with the ICTY. This feeling appears to ethnic nationalism, yet nationalism persisted. Economist Intelligence Unit. (2006) Country Report Serbia. 7 This was a Serbian initiative led by Milosevic, as 5 Republics such as Croatia and Slovenia desired Montenegro adopted a neutral stance on the Kosovo independence, while Serbia wished to maintain a issue. International Crisis Group. (2006) Kosovo: stronger federal system. The Challenge of Transition. Available: 6 There is an ongoing academic argument as to http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=322 whether these ethnic tensions were the result of elite 6&l=1 (Accessed 8 May 2006): 5. manipulation or whether they rose naturally among 8 For instance, in 2003 extremist groups instigated the population. Regardless, the result was still violent riots when Serbian police arrested war crimes fighting between ethnic groups. suspect Veselin Sljivancanin. “Riots erupt as war
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 9 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis increase when the international Consequently, between the uncertainty community puts pressure on Serbia to over Montenegro’s future, the political hand over those indicted by the ICTY.9 To problems within the two republics, and its date the ICTY has put increasing pressure overall economic difficulties, SCG is a on Serbia to hand over Ratko Mladic and state exhibiting signs of instability and is Radovan Karadzic, two war crimes sensitive to deteriorations within the suspects. political or economic environments.
The relationship between Serbia and Montenegro remained uneasy; the Belgrade agreement was signed on 4 February 2003, but under duress. This created the State Union (SCG) where both parties were given the right to hold referendums on independence. SCG is loose at best; the federal office is only responsible for a few areas of governance, including external relations, economic relations, the armed forces, and some human rights issues. Federal Assembly members were appointed by the republics’ parliaments; direct elections have not yet been held as Montenegro is attempting to first have an independence referendum. Montenegro’s future remains one, if not the, key issue of significance to SCG stability. Governance stability is further threatened within each republic. Serbia is led by a minority coalition government that often experiences fighting within and among coalition parties and also faces strong opposition from various fronts. In Montenegro, opposition parties complicate the independence issue: some strongly support while others condemn independence. Compounding this is the poor economic condition and general low- level well-being within SCG. Due to international sanctions and the various conflicts, SCG has experienced major economic decline since 1990 and has since struggled to recover.10
crimes suspect detained,” Guardian Unlimited Friday June 13, 2003, online access: http://www.guardian.co.uk/yugo/article/0,,976919,0 0.html 9 Following increased EU pressure. “Opinion poll indicates 53 per cent in Serbia oppose extraditions to Hague.” BBC News, March 31, 2006. 10 For instance, GDP fell by nearly 50%. United Nations Development Program. (2005) SALW Survey. Available: bia_montenegro.pdf (Accessed 13 May 2006). 6. http://www.undp.org/bcpr/smallarms/docs/proj_ser Hereafter SALW Survey.
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6. Stakeholders
There are ten main stakeholders that are Although there are brewing tensions affected by changes in the SCG political between Serbia and Montenegro over the environment. Each stakeholder is impending referendum, the greater source composed of a variety of actors that have of friction lies within the republics. Both their own grievances and interests. SCG Serbian and Montenegrin leadership face has six internal stakeholder categories, opposition groups that are unhappy with including national leadership, sub-national the current governance. The Serbian leadership for both Serbia and opposition provides more of a threat, Montenegro, opposition parties and other however, as they have more strength political figures within both Serbia and within Serbia than the Montenegrin Montenegro, and the general public. There opposition has within Montenegro. There are also four external stakeholder groups is also growing tension between external including the international missions, the stakeholders and both republics. The United Nations, the European Union (EU), international community is dissatisfied and regional states and other interested with Serbia’s lack of ICTY cooperation, parties. and they are also hesitant to support Montenegrin independence, fearing repercussions for Kosovo-Serbia relations.
Table 1. Internal Stakeholders Stakeholder Composition Grievances/Interests 1. National Leadership - President Svetozar Marovic - Montenegrin; has stirred some controversy over apologies for war activities; supports ICTY 2. Serbian Leadership - Minority coalition - Divided over Montenegro’s potential government11 independence; opposed to union of two states; both reformist and nationalistic figures; divisions among reformists - PM Vojislav Kostunica - More conservative, nationalistic - President Boris Tadic - Former opposition leader; reformist 3. Serbian opposition - Democratic Party (DS) – - Often hostile towards government; groups, other political lead party in opposition have not yet placed no-confidence figures vote - Serbian Radical Party - Extremist group (SRS) - Socialist Party of Serbia - Nationalistic; opposed to ICTY; (SPS) Milosevic’s former currently supporting government party - Force of Serbia Movement - claims to attract defectors from (PSS) - led by Bogoljub other parties to unseat government Karic; - Serbian national church - Expansionist agenda; opposed to EU; advancing ethnic agenda
11 Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), the G17 Plus, and the Serbian Renewal Movement-New Serbia (SPO-NS) alliance. For more detailed background on political parties and figures, see Economist Intelligence Unit. (2006) Country Profile Serbia.
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4. Montenegrin - PM Milo Djukanovic - Pro-independence, pushing for Leadership - President Filip Vujanovic referendum 5. Montenegrin - Assortment of minor actors - Averse to negotiating with opposition groups, government other figures - Some are pro-independence, while others are pro-unity 6. General population - Montenegrin - Divided on independence - Serbian
Table 2. External Stakeholders 7. International - NATO - Providing security in Kosovo Missions - UMIK - Administering Kosovo territory
- OSCE Mission - Supports and monitors democratic reforms and activity 8. EU - Miroslav Lajcak - EU envoy - Working to prevent/delay for the Montenegrin Montenegrin referendum, worried referendum that it will impact Kosovo talks and/or result in an unviable state dependent on EU assistance12 9. UN - International Criminal - Displeased with recent slowdown in Tribunal for the former ICTY cooperation Yugoslavia – Carla del Ponte, Chief Prosecutor - Secretary-General Kofi Annan 10. Regional States, - Regional States including - Generally poor relations with Serbia Other interested Croatia, Bosnia- compared to Montenegro parties Herzegovina (BiH) - BiH and Croatia both attempting to charge SCG for genocide at the International Court of Justice - United States - ‘Hands off’ approach to Montenegro
12 International Crisis Group (2005) Montenegro’s Independence Drive. Available: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3823&l=1 (Accessed 6 May 2006) 1. Hereafter ICG (2005).
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7. Sub-National Risk Indicators
7.1. Summary
Medium risk (6.15) independence, highly destabilizing incidents in this cluster could prove to be According to CIFP risk analysis, SCG is a spoiler events. Population Heterogeneity is medium risk region with a rating of 6.15. also of concern due to the wide variety of This is based on an assessment of nine ethnic groups in SCG and their history of clusters that affect a country’s risk for antagonism. This cluster may also provide future conflict: History of Armed Conflict, spoiler events that could seriously Governance and Political Instability, destabilize the region, particularly if the Militarization, Population Heterogeneity, overall environment in SCG deteriorates. Economic Performance, International Linkages, Environment, Demographic Governance and Political Instability is also Stress, and Human Development. problematic, largely due to the uncertainty over SCG future unity, but also due to The following sections look at the risk governance problems within each Republic assessment for each cluster, including and the federal system writ large. There stabilizing factors, destabilizing factors are some stabilizing factors, but the and potential spoilers for each cluster cluster is largely typified by uncertainty, area. The analysis finds that the main corruption, weak institutions, and areas of concern for SCG are History of contention between political parties. Armed Conflict, Governance and Political Economic Performance and Militarization Instability, Militarization, Population constitute two final areas of concern. First, Heterogeneity and Economic Performance. Militarization is a high risk cluster because of the high level of military spending and History of Armed Conflict is an area of the problems with defence reform. concern due to the fact that SCG has Economic Performance is problematic undergone years of conflict, which has because although there has been a produced a wide variety of destabilizing demonstrated improvement, the overall factors, such as a large IDP and refugee economy is weak and exhibits problems population. As Montenegro moves towards such as high unemployment and inflation. independence and other ethnic groups within Serbia begin agitating for
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7.2. Risk indicators by cluster - Difficulties in electing parliaments, presidents17 7.2.1. History of Armed Conflict - Weak institutions, difficulties 18 implementing Constitutional Charter - Montenegro intends to hold High risk (7.13) independence referendum; opposition unwilling to work with government Stabilizing Factors - Widespread corruption19 - Some IDPs have returned or opted for 20 13 - High degree of organized crime and citizenship in Serbia or Montenegro criminal violence21 - Inability of SCG to control small arms Destabilizing Factors and light weapons (SALW) proliferation22 - Recent history of several violent conflicts - Serbian nationalist church pushing - Large IDP, refugee population expansion23 - Friction between republics and internally 14 displaced persons from Kosovo ; Potential spoilers discrimination/vulnerability common - Nationalistic statements regarding place Montenegrin independence; major opposition to referendum and/or its Potential spoilers results - Extremist political parties instigate - Serbian government falls due to violence opposition pressure - Increase in ethnically motivated violence 7.2.3. Militarization 7.2.2. Governance and Political Instability High risk (8.53)
High risk (7.79) Stabilizing Factors - Steps taken in defence reform24 Stabilizing Factors - Retraining program for former officers25 - Working towards a new constitution - Some reforms in public administration, 15 governance, law enforcement, judiciary 17 In 2005 parliamentary mandates expired without - Modest level of democracy16 elections, “while legally the parliament had ceased to exist, it continued to function as if nothing had Destabilizing Factors happened.” ICG (2005) 8. 18 European Union (2005). - Uncertainty of future unity: Montenegro 19 United Nations Development Group (UNDG). agitating for an independence (2001) Common Country Assessment. Available: referendum, ethnic groups in the north http://www.undg.org/documents/4544- and south of Serbia stirring for autonomy Serbia_and_Montenegro_CCA.pdf (Accessed 13 May 2006). 8. Hereafter UNDG (2001). 20 SALW Survey 9. 21 In 2003, the Prime Minister of Serbia was 13 International Committee of the Red Cross. (2005) assassinated as a result of criminal crackdowns The situation of internally displaced persons in Serbia Economist Intelligence Unit. (2006) 8. and Montenegro. Available: 22 Serbia has an estimated amount of 2.9 billion http://www.icrc.org/Web/Eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList47 SALW. The inability stems from the uncertainty of 1/507CE9CD9087460CC125701F0031969D the state union, lack of resources and competent (accessed 15 May 2006). Hereafter ICRC (2005). staff and inadequacy of existing legislation. SALW 14 Estimated amount of 208 135 IDPs in Serbia and Survey 1. 18 019 in Montenegro. ICRC (2005). 23 ICG (2005). 15 European Union (2005) Progress Report. Available: 24 Bonn International Centre for Conversion (2005) http://www.delscg.cec.eu.int/en/eu_and_fry/key_do Demobilizing and Retraining for the Future The cuments/documents/2005%20sec_1428_final_en_pr Armed Forces in Serbia and Montenegro. Available: ogress_report_scg.pdf (Accessed 11 May 2006). http://bicc.de/publications/briefs/brief31/brief31.pdf 16 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2006) (Accessed 12 May 2006) 4. Conflict Risk Assessment Report. Forthcoming. 25 Ibid.
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Destabilizing Factors - Northern Serbia - Vojvodina (Serbs - High military spending, large military26 and Hungarians); - Resistance to defence reform - Montenegro (Serbs, Montenegrins, - Budgetary pressure from social and Bosniaks/Mulsims); assistance to veterans and modernisation - SCG generally (Roma) efforts27 - Low levels of ethnically motivated - Some veterans excluded from social violence, particularly in Vojvodina and assistance28 government unable/unwilling to respond adequately, acknowledge the problem33 Potential spoilers - Officers refuse further reforms Potential spoilers - Rapid deterioration of inter-ethnic 7.2.4. Population Heterogeneity tensions
High risk (7.33) 7.2.5. Economic Performance
Stabilizing Factors High risk (6.57) - Minorities allowed to take education in their language Stabilizing Factors - Adopted a Charter on Human and - Demonstrated improvement34; expected 29 Minority Rights to continue growing; adoption of poverty - Law stating that multi-ethnic reduction plans35 municipalities have a Council for Ethnic - Renegotiated much international debt (or 30 Relations currently doing so), including some debt write-offs36 Destabilizing Factors - Positive trends in foreign investment; - 670,000, Montenegro has a complex ongoing privatization and other economic national structure, comprising 41 per reforms37 cent Montenegrins, 30 per cent Serbs, - Improvement in inflation rate38 14.7 per cent Bosniaks, seven per cent 31 Albanians and one per cent Croats. Destabilizing Factors - Ethnic majorities with numerous - Low level of economic development minorities in both republics; small relative to region, European states 32 number of mixed marriages - High unemployment, inflation39 - Tensions and discrimination in - Southern Serbia (Serbs and 33 Human Rights Watch (2005) Violence against Albanians); minorities Available: http://hrw.org/reports/2005/serbia1005/ (Accessed 6 May 2006). Hereafter HRW. 26 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (2006) 34 For instance, GDP has grown by 18.6% between Conflict Risk Assessment Report. Forthcoming. 2000 and 2003. SALW Survey 7. 27 Bonn International Centre for Conversion (2005) 35 United Nations Development Program (2005) The 4. review of the implementation: The millennium 28 Ibid. development goals in Serbia. Available: 29 United Nations Development Program (2005) http://www.undp.org.yu/mdgs/2005/mdg_report_en Serbia Human Development Report: Diversity. g.pdf (Accessed 13 May 2006) 5. Hereafter UNDP Available: MDGs Serbia. http://www.undp.org.yu/nhdr/2005/NHDR_Serbia_2 36 European Union (2005) 56. 005_eng.pdf (Accessed 13 May 2006) 2. Hereafter 37 Economist Intelligence Unit. (2006) and European Serbia HDR. Union (2005) 56-57. 30 Where the population consists of more than 10% 38 UNDP MDGs Serbia 48. minorities or one minority group is more than 5%. 39 Estimated around 30%. United Nations Serbia HDR 3. Development Program (2005) (2005) Montenegro 31 Sead Sadikovic (2006) “Minorities Flex Their Human Development Report: inequality, gender and Political Muscles.” Institute for War and Peace poverty. Available: Reporting. http://hdr.undp.org/docs/reports/national/YUG_Serb 32 Serbia HDR 2. ia_and_Montenegro/Montenegro_2005_en.pdf
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 15 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
- High debt levels, low foreign assistance40 - EU pressure for ICTY cooperation, - Large degree informal economic reforms activity41 - International community still unsatisfied - Scarcity of electricity production42 with SCG reforms - Consistently large trade deficit43 - Montenegro dissatisfied with EU actions - Low investment levels44 towards referendum; feels it has been more responsive to EU reform demands Potential spoilers than Serbia and deserves support47 - Failures in privatization schemes - Increasing unemployment Potential spoilers - Economic crisis - Difficulties with EU SAA, such as problems with “twin-track” approach48 7.2.6. International Linkages - Worsening relationship between Serbia and western powers over Mladic Medium risk (5.76) 7.2.7. Environmental Stress Stabilizing Factors - Working towards EU membership Low risk (2.33) through initiation of SAA45 talks - Membership in a variety of international Stabilizing Factors and regional bodies46 - Some steps towards environmental - Increasing cooperation with ICTY protection49 - EU providing assistance so that the - NGOs raising awareness of referendum meets international environmental problems50 standards - Low overall environmental stress level
Destabilizing Factors Destabilizing Factors - Obstacles to EU membership: better - Four ‘environmental hotspots’51 internal economic relations, cooperation - Lack of environmental protection52 with the ICTY, functioning institutions - High demand for and exploitation of - Lack of full cooperation with ICTY – wood53 deadlines to hand over Ratko Mladic - The ICTY has outstanding warrants for Potential spoilers Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic; - Natural disaster believes that they are hiding in SCG 7.2.8. Demographic Stress
Medium risk (3.59) (Accessed 13 May 2006) 15. Hereafter Montenegro HDR. 40 CIFP Stabilizing Factors 41 Estimated to be 40% of GDP in 2002. Montenegro - Lack of youth bulge 54 HDR 13. 42 Due to high energy demands from industry. Montenegro HDR 20. 47 ICG (2005) 6. 43 UNDP MDGs Serbia 48. 48 The EU is conducting talks both jointly and 44 Ibid. independently with Serbia and Montenegro due to 45 Stabilization and association agreement the uncertainty over future status and differences in 46 In particular: Council of Europe, Central European institutions, capacity, and reforms. Economist Initiative, European Bank for Reconstruction and Intelligence Unit. (2006). Development, International Bank for Reconstruction 49 European Union (2005) 58. and Development (World Bank), International 50 Montenegro HDR 21. Criminal Court, International Monetary Fund, 51 UNDG (2001) 9. Organization for Security and Co-operation in 52 Ibid. Europe, United Nations. CIA World Factbook, 53 Montenegro HDR 20. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/yi 54 In Serbia, youth aged 15 to 24 constituted 13.4% .html of the population. Serbia HDR 1.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 16 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
- Low overall demographic stress55
Destabilizing Factors - IDPs in Serbia migrating to urban centres for employment56
Potential spoilers - Mass increase in youth unemployment, urban migration
7.2.9. Human Development
Medium risk (5.35)
Stabilizing Factors - Compulsory, free elementary education; reforms in education57 - Some positive health indicators; health reforms58 - Relatively low HIV/AIDS levels59
Destabilizing Factors - Poor education system - Persistent gender inequality60 - Some decreasing health indicators in Montenegro61
Potential spoilers - Problems with service provision
55 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy. 56 ICRC (2005). 57 UNDP MDGs Serbia 7. 58 Ibid. 59 UNDP MDGs Serbia 34. 60 UNDP MDGs Serbia 8. 61 Montenegro HDR 17.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 17 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
8. Events Data: Trends and Analysis
8.1. Summary
Table 3. Overall statistics that they will capture Mladic, which is Total Average Average score considered destabilizing for those Serbs number of event as a percent of who are anti-ICTY. Montenegro’s events score total possible (9) progression towards independence has All 661 .05 1% had a similarly detrimental effect, and the Stabilizing 349 3.5 39% hostility between political parties in both Destabilizing 312 -3.9 -43% Republics likewise contributes to an
already negative trend. Table 4. Overall event trends Stabilizing Destabilizing All events events events International Linkages differs from Moderately Moderately Strongly Governance and Political Instability as it negative positive negative exhibits a positive average event score, Weekly due to the fact that stabilizing events aggregate outnumber destabilizing events. However, International Linkages appears to remain at the status quo trend. This is largely due Between 24 October 2005 and 2 May to the balance between destabilizing 2006, 661 events were recorded for SCG. events (increasing pressure being placed 349 (53%) of the events were stabilizing, on Serbia) and stabilizing events and 312 (47%) were destabilizing. The (international cooperation with the overall statistics demonstrate a somewhat Montenegrin referendum). risky region, as the average event scored .05 (1%) and there was a moderately Despite these problem areas, SCG does negative trend. The deterioration is due to possess a primary driver with a positive the strongly negative trend among trend. Economic Performance not only destabilizing events, which overpowered shows an indication of improvement, but the stabilizing events’ moderately positive also possesses positive average event trend. Essentially, the occurrence and scores. Essentially, there has been an magnitude of destabilizing events have increase in the number of stabilizing increased significantly over the past six events, combined with a decrease in the months. number and magnitude of destabilizing events. The main clusters that have caused these problems include Governance and Political In conclusion, although there are a few Instability and International Linkages, areas where SCG has improved and the while Economic Performance instead average event score indicates stability, it points to a positive trend. appears as though the situation in SCG is generally deteriorating. The moderately negative trend in Governance and Political Instability is partly due to Serbia’s continual comments
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 18 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
8.2. Primary Drivers Primary drivers are those clusters that contain more than twenty-five events. These clusters are the main areas of activity in the region, with the greatest contribution to the overall trend.
8.2.1. Governance and Political Instability- Police introduce stronger gun control - Government achieves 20005 budget surplus; 2006 budget approved with surplus; intended Table 5. Governance and Political Instability for public spending statistics - Referendum uncertainties begin to reduce; Total number Average Average score opposition agrees to date of events score % of possible 9 - Serbia offers some concessions to Milosevic All 158 -1.65 -18% supports, relatives over funeral Stabilizing 46 3.8 42% - Peaceful mourning of Milosevic Destabilizing 112 -3.9 -43% - DS agrees to support government until ICTY demands are met Table 6. Governance and Political Instability event trends Overview of Destabilizing Events Stabilizing Destabilizing All events - Serbian government begins to make gestures events events towards cooperating with ICTY, capturing Moderately Status Moderately Mladic62; conflict with government over who negative quo negative is to blame for not capturing Mladic Weekly - Montenegro begins independence drive aggregate - Relations between Serbia and Montenegro
sour: Serbia requests EU intervention and Montenegro accuses Serbia of interference. Governance and Political Instability - Relations between Montenegrin leaders and constituted the second largest cluster opposition sour; opposition walks out of discussions; constant verbal conflict category and is one of the main causes of - Serbian leaders and opposition wrangle over problems within SCG, accounting for the when to hold elections overall negative trend. This is reflected by - Well-known Serbian political figure faces the average conflict indicator statistic, arrest, criminal charges; alleges that it is which is highly negative. This is caused by motivated for political reasons high numbers of destabilizing events - Ethnic Hungarian leaders in the north push coupled with a lack of offsetting stabilizing for autonomy events. - Serbian political figures protest over Serbian discrimination in southern Serbia - Serbia implements a controversial religious Overall, the deterioration in Governance bill; many complaints over its discrimination and Political Instability is largely due to - Serbian extremist groups gaining popularity63 the increase in destabilizing events and - Milosevic dies amidst rumours of poisoning; the fall in the magnitude of stabilizing supporters call for state burial and events. This was brought about by the government refuses upsurge in tensions among political - Continuation of corruption parties within both Serbia and Montenegro.
Overview of Stabilizing Events 62 For instance, the police arrested some of Mladic’s - Serbia introduces a commission to deal with former aides and searched the homes of friends and violence, and discrimination in Vojvodina relatives, and the government cut off Mladic’s pension. Note that this is destabilizing in governance - Attempts to handle corruption, crime: because there are factions in the opposition, military arresting suspects, legal reforms and general public that do not support Mladic’s - Montenegro gestures of goodwill towards capture. It is double counted within international Serbia regarding post-referendum relations linkages as a stabilizing factor because the - Serbia jails war criminals international community is placing pressure on SCG - Montenegro and opposition discuss to hand Mladic to the ICTY. 63 referendum rules “Tadic and Radicals lead opinion polls,” B92 13 April 2006.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 19 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
8.2.2. Economic Performance - Building of infrastructure: roads - Plans to develop hydro power Table 7. Economic Performance statistics - Positive reforms Total number Average Average score of events score % of possible 9 Overview of Destabilizing Events All 133 1 11% - Unable to address inflation, unemployment; Stabilizing 99 3 33% some argue monetary measures taken will only harm the economy Destabilizing 34 -3 -33% - Several energy crises: reduction in gas
imports over Russia-Ukraine crisis, high Table 8. Economic Performance event financial losses from power distribution trends company, electric workers threaten to strike Stabilizing Destabilizing All events - Tensions over privatisation; not as successful events events as hoped Moderately Moderately Status - Low technology use; fall in mobile users Weekly positive positive quo - Costly damages from earthquake, floods64 aggregate
8.2.3. International Linkages
Economic performance provides a Table 9. International Linkages statistics measure of optimism for SCG. Overall, the Total number Average Average score of events score % of possible 9 total average statistic points towards a All 296 .5 5% generally positive situation. Plus, the Stabilizing 176 3 33% trend statistic is moderately positive, due Destabilizing 120 -3 -33% to the increase in the number of stabilizing events. Thus, although SCG Table 10. International Linkages event faces economic difficulties, the outlook is trends encouraging. Stabilizing Destabilizing All events events events The positive trend and overall statistics Status Status Status are caused by the expanding economy Weekly quo quo quo and introduction of various reforms. aggregate Privatisation continues to occur, and the government has seen some success in addressing economic problems. This has helped to prevent negative events, such International Linkages is a key cluster, as as the energy crisis, from having a major it includes the largest number of events. impact on the economic outlook. One However, events in this cluster are only would also expect that as long as there is slightly positive on average, and the trend not a major increase in destabilizing sits at the status quo level. International events, Economic Performance will Linkages is thus situated so that it could continue to perform well, as current have an impact – positive or negative – on reforms start to have their effect. the overall situation in SCG. The situation could improve should the number of destabilizing events fall or if there is an Overview of Stabilizing Events increase in the stabilizing event scores. - Trade, exports expand Alternatively, the situation may - Government budget surplus deteriorate if the number of stabilizing - Increase in industrial production events fall or the value of destabilizing - GDP growth events rises. - Continuation of privatization efforts - Employment growth - Significant FDI activity The status quo trend is caused by a rise of - Some measures to address inflation seem to both stabilizing and destabilizing events, work 64 Estimated 18 million and 40 million respectively.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 20 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis resulting in an overall balanced trend. - Fines from soccer association due to riots Over the past six months, SCG has between SCG and BiH fans experienced mounting pressure with - Failed attempt to strengthen cooperation regional states and organizations, among Balkan states - EU pressure on Montenegro to postpone particularly the EU, over Mladic’s capture referendum, come to rules agreement with as well as Montenegro’s referendum. At opposition, accept EU-defined threshold the same time the international - Tensions between Serbia and Slovenia, community praised SCG over its reforms, Macedonia increased cooperation with the EU on both - Mounting pressure on Serbia to surrender the Mladic and referendum issues, and it Mladic: EU, ICTY, UN, NATO has reached a number of international - Serbia denies allegations Mladic is being agreements, including a highly significant assisted by government; claims his debt write-off. However, at the time of supporters are in BiH - SAA talks threatened; deadline for capture writing, the EU had just ended SAA talks imposed with SCG, a highly destabilizing event. - Serbia claims unable to capture Mladic; Should such events continue without a requests more time; misses deadline mitigating change in number of - EU ends SAA talks destabilizing events or and increase in the - General international criticism stabilizing trend, the international linkages - OSCE: Serbian parliament, religious law trend will likely worsen. - Human Rights Watch: Montenegrin judiciary - Amnesty International: war reparations in Overview of Stabilizing Events Montenegro - Initiation of SAA - BiH presents genocide case against Serbia to - Serbian government begins to make gestures International Court of Justice towards capturing Mladic65 - Montenegro cooperates with EU on referendum - Agrees (reluctantly) to postpone the implementation of the referendum - Invites international representation - EU promises not to impose rules - Significant amount of foreign aid pledges - High degree of consultation with, between neighbours and other parties; regional cooperation - Regional, international support for future EU membership - International praise for reforms: IMF, OSCE, World Bank, Financial Times - Achieved a variety of international agreements: economic, political and military - Debt write-off from Paris Club
Overview of Destabilizing Events
- EU pressure to adopt reforms
65 For instance, the police arrested some of Mladic’s former aides and searched the homes of friends and relatives, and the government cut off Mladic’s pension. Note that this is stabilizing in within international linkages as a stabilizing factor because the international community is placing pressure on SCG to hand Mladic to the ICTY. It is double counted within governance because there are factions in the opposition, military and general public that do not support Mladic’s capture.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 21 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
8.3. Secondary Drivers Secondary drivers are those clusters with less than twenty-five monitored events. These clusters provide supplementary information to the overall analysis.
8.3.1. Armed Conflict However, there were still sporadic incidences of hate graffiti in northern Armed Conflict remains an area of Serbia, Muslims protest over Danish concern, because there are only cartoons, tensions rise between destabilizing events occurring in this Montenegrins and Serbians over a cluster. Over the past six months there Eurovision contest, and rising tensions in have been some incidences of violence, southern Serbia. but levels remain low and relatively stable. However, should such events begin 8.3.4. Environmental Stress to rise without any offsetting stabilizing events, this area could contribute to The events within the Environmental greater deterioration of SCG. Essentially, Stress cluster are generally negative, although this cluster does not appear to indicating the overall weakness of this present much of a threat in the way of cluster. SCG experienced multiple overall deterioration, it could very well environmental crises, including flooding, provide a trigger event in a sufficiently avian flu and a minor earthquake. destabilized environment. 8.3.5. Demographic Stress 8.3.2. Militarization Demographic stress continues to be a Events in the militarization cluster were slightly significant structural risk factor in generally negative during this period. This SCG. The biggest risk comes from future reflects the fact that despite some IDP movement and stress that such reforms, the SCG military still faces migration may place on urban settings. difficulties in terms of finances and control. This was demonstrated by 8.3.6. Human Development tensions between the Montenegrin President and the SCG Minister of Defence Human Development events were over control of the military during the essentially balanced between stabilizing referendum. and destabilizing. On the positive side, actions such as opening a national 8.3.3. Population Heterogeneity HIV/AIDS office and educational programs were beneficial. On the other hand, lack of Overall, population heterogeneity events heat during the winter caused a number of were generally positive. There were some deaths, and there were some school efforts to address ethnic tensions, such as strikes over pay and work environment. conferences and economic assistance.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 22 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
Part C: Annex
9. Summary of Data
Table 11. Overall data All events Stabilizing events Destabilizing events Risk indicator Trend Avg. Trend Avg. Trend Avg. Medium risk (6.15) -.53 .05 .53 3.5 -1.1 -3.9
Table 12. Data for primary drivers All events Stabilizing events Destabilizing events Cluster Risk indicator Trend Avg. Trend Avg. Trend Avg.
Governance and Political High risk (7.79) -.9 -1.65 -.096 3.8 -.88 -3.9 Instability Economic Performance High risk (6.57) .1 1 .2 3 .07 -3 International Linkages Medium risk (5.76) .03 .5 -.01 3 -.002 -3
Table 13. Data for Secondary Drivers Cluster Risk indicator
Armed Conflict High risk (7.13) Militarization High risk (8.53) Population Heterogeneity High risk (7.33) Environmental Stress Low risk (2.33) Demographic Stress Medium risk (3.59)
Human Development Medium risk (5.35)
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 23 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
10. Trend Line Charts 10.1. All events
Figure 2. Chart of trend lines for all events and the count of events by week
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 24 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
10.2. Stabilizing events
Figure 3. Chart of trend lines for stabilizing events and the count of events by week
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 25 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
10.3. Destabilizing events
Figure 4. Chart of trend lines for destabilizing events and the count of events by week
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 26 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
11. Maps
Figure 5. Map of Serbia and Montenegro from the International Crisis Group
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 27 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
12. Bibliography
12.1. Event Sources
Events were obtained using Google Alerts (http://www.google.com/alerts), which provided a daily summary of news reports for the search terms ‘Serbia’, ‘Montenegro’ and ‘Serbia and Montenegro’. The news reports originated from a wide variety of local and international sources, including:
Agency of Information - Skopje, Fibre2fashion.com - India Macedonia Financial Mirror - Cyprus AKI Rome Italy Financial times Akron Beacon Journal - Akron, OH, USA Focus News - Sofia AME Info - United Arab Emirates Forbes Amnesty International ForUm - Kiev, Ukraine Associated Press Forum 18 - Oslo, Norway B92 - Belgrade Guardian Unlimited - UK Balkan Update - USA Gulf Times - Qatar BBC News Harold Doan and Associates – Rocklin, Black Enterprise - New York CA, USA BosNewsLife - Budapest, Hungary Hindu - Chennai, India Bucharest Daily News - Bucharest, Hindu Business Line - India Romania Hindustan Times - India Bulgarian News Network - Sofia, Bulgaria Houston Chronicle Business Day - Johannesburg, South Independent Online - Cape Town, South Africa Africa BusinessWeek - USA Institute for War and Peace Reporting - CatererSearch - Surrey, UK London CNN Institutional Investor - New York Combined Jewish Philantropies - Boston, International Herald Tribune MA, USA International News Service - Sydney, CRI Beijing Australia Daily Times - Lahore, Pakistan International Water Power and Dam DailyIndia.com - Niskayuna, NY, USA Construction - London, UK Deutsche Welle - Germany Ireland Online - Dublin, Ireland Doteurovision - UK Islamic Republic News Agency - Tehran, dtt.net - Brussels Iran Economic Times - India ISN - Zurich Enniscorthy Echo - Ireland ITAR-TASS - Moscow esctoday.com - Leiden, Netherlands Jerusalem Post - Israel ESPN Journal of Turkish Weekly - Ankara EU observer JURIST - USA EUPolitix.com - Brussels, Belgium just-drinks.com - UK EurofundingMag - Paris, France Kathimerini - Athens Evroportal.bg - Bulgaria Kauppalehti - Press Release FENA - Bosnia and Herzegovina Khaleej Times - Dubai, United Arab Kim Info-service - Serbia and Emirates Montenegro Reporter - Athens KosovaLive - Prishtina Reuters Kosovareport RIA Novosti - Moscow Kuwait News Agency - Kuwait RTE.ie - Ireland Los Angeles Times - CA San Jose Mercury News - CA, USA
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 28 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
Luchtzak Aviation - Belgium Science Daily Macedonian Information Agency - Scotsman Skopje, Macedonia Seattle Post Intelligencer - USA Macedonian Press Agency - Greece Serbianna.com Maclean's - Canada Slovenian Business Week Makfax - Skopije, Macedonia Sofia News Agency - Bulgaria MarketWatch - USA Southeast European Times Mediafax - Bucuresti, Romania Stratfor - USA MedIndia - India Swissinfo Monsters and critics - Glasgow Sydney Morning Herald - Sydney, New MTI - Budapest, Hungary South Wales, Australia New York Times - United States Telecom - Netherlands New Zealand Herald TeleGeography - Washington, D.C Newindpress - Chennai, India The Age - Melbourne, Victoria, Australia NewKerala.com - Ernakulam, Kerala, The Statesman - Kolkata, India India Toronto Star - Canada Norway Post - Bærum, Norway Travel Daily News International - Athens, Noticias.info - Spain Greece Oneworld.net - London Turkish Daily News - Ankara, Turkey OSCE United Press International Pakistan Link - Inglewood, CA, USA Voice of America - USA People's Daily Online - Beijing China Washington Times - Washington, DC, Political Gateway - Deerfield Beach, FL, USA USA Webindia123 - India Portalino - Italy WIS - Columbia, SC, USA Pravda World Screen News - New York, NY, USA Radio Free Europe - Prague Xinhua Radio Netherlands - Netherlands Zee News - Noida, India Reliefweb
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 29 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
12.2. Bibliography
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--. Balkans maps and graphics. See: http://enrin.grida.no/graphics.cfm?country=balkan
United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR). See: http://www.unhcr.org/cgi- bin/texis/vtx/country?iso=yug
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 33 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
--. (2005) Position on the Continued International Protection Needs of Individuals from Kosovo. Available: http://www.unhcr.org/cgi- bin/texis/vtx/publ/opendoc.pdf?tbl=RSDLEGAL&id=42550aa94&page=publ (Accessed 13 May 2006).
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--. (2006) Global Appeal 2006. See: http://www.unhcr.org/cgi- bin/texis/vtx/publ/opendoc.pdf?tbl=PUBL&id=4371d1ac0 (Accessed 13 May 2006).
--. 2003 Statistical Yearbook http://www.unhcr.org/cgi- bin/texis/vtx/statistics/opendoc.pdf?tbl=STATISTICS&id=41d2c1a9c&page=statistics (Accessed 13 May 2006).
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). Serbia and Montenegro. See: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc104?OpenForm&rc=4&cc=scm
--. Balkans. See: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc108?OpenForm&emid=ACOS- 635NHD&rc=4
United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). Serbia and Montenegro. See: http://www.unaids.org/EN/Geographical+Area/by+country/serbia+and+montenegro.a sp
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--. (2005). Background Note: Serbia and Montenegro. Available: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5388.htm (Accessed 12 May 2006).
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World Health Organization (WHO). See: http://www.who.int/countries/scg/en/
World Bank. See: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/SERBIAEXTN/0,,m enuPK:300909~pagePK:141159~piPK:141110~theSitePK:300904,00.html
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 34 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
13. Methodology
13.1. Description of Events Monitoring
Event trends are assessed using the slope instance, an average Ca+Es+Ce can score of time-series trend lines that are as high (or low) as +/- 9, so a score of provided by plotting event data over a +/- 2 achieves a percentage of +/- 22%. given period of time. First, based on the Positive percentages are indicative of an context of the region as described by the environment that on average experiences Background, Stakeholders and Risk stabilizing events, as there are either Indicators sections, events are identified more stabilizing events or more strongly as being generally stabilizing or valued stabilizing events. Negative destabilizing66 and given a sign of either percentages indicate the opposite, an +1 (stabilizing) or -1 (destabilizing). environment characterized by Events are then coded on a scale of 1 to 3 destabilizing events. The closer the for three dimensions: the degree to which percentage comes to +/- 100% the better they can be linked to the risk of future (or worse) events tend to be. peace or conflict – Causality (Ca); whether the event is typical or constitutes The second avenue of analysis is via trend an acceleration of events – Escalation lines to observe whether the events (Es); and the degree to which the event demonstrate any positive or negative affects relevant stakeholders– Centrality trend over time. The conflict indicators are (Ce). Causality and Escalation are coded plotted against time – usually six months based on a qualitative analysis of the – and trend lines are generated, based on event considered within the context of the ordinary least squares regression, and region’s risk indicators. Centrality is coded compared in two different ways. The first using a quantitative analysis of the comparison, the individual event trend proportion of stakeholders affected by the line, plots the conflict indicators of each event. event over time. This is useful in that it indicates whether and to what degree the A conflict indicator statistic is then individual event conflict indicators have a calculated by summing the three positive or negative trend over time. dimensions of an event (Ca+Es+Ce), and However, it does not account for an multiplying it by the sign to provide a increase or decrease in the total number stabilizing indicator of +3 to +9 and a of events, so the second trend analysis is destabilizing indicator of -3 to -9. The that of the weekly aggregate. To attain analyst can use this conflict indicator to this trend line, the conflict indicators are explore summary statistics as well as first summed by week; for instance, if one trend lines of the region’s events. week has four events with the conflict indicators of +2, +2, -2 and -2, the Summary statistics provide the analyst overall weekly aggregate would be 0, the with an overview of the average event stabilizing weekly aggregate would be +4 scores. The total number of events and and the destabilizing weekly aggregate the average conflict indicator statistics are would be -4. The weekly aggregate is then calculated, including sub-calculations by plotted over time to produce a trend line sign. For the average scores, a percentage that incorporates the theory that an is calculated based on the highest score increase or decrease in total number of for that conflict indicator statistic. For events should matter in addition to their changing value. That is, one would presume that a rapid increase in the 66 Note that in some unique cases an event will be number of stabilizing events would coded as both stabilizing and destabilizing.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 35 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis indicate an improving trend, even if the improvements through positive slopes, conflict indicators for the individual events indicating the reduction in conflict remain largely unchanged. vulnerability. On the other hand, negative slopes denote a deteriorating situation – Taken together, these two trend analyses an increase in conflict vulnerability. The provide an overview of the general event degree of improvement or deterioration is developments over the previous months. identified as status quo, moderate, or In the analysis, both stabilizing and strong, based on the slope and according destabilizing trend lines reflect to the following chart:
Table 14. Matrix of Trend Magnitudes and associated symbols Trend Strongly Moderately Status Moderately Strongly Magnitude Negative Negative quo Positive Positive Below Between Between Between Over Slope size -1 -1 and -.1 -.1 and .1 +.1 and +1 +1
Symbol
Finally, scenarios are created for best peace-building opportunities by case, worst case and status quo forecasting the best, worst or status quo situations, based on an analysis of overall trends. The conclusion will also state the and cluster summary statistics and trends. likelihood that the region will approach a The best and worst cases consider the higher or lower risk level; this analysis is trends among stabilizing and destabilizing based on whether the current risk level is events. The best case assumes that the already near a lower or higher category strongest of the positive trends will hold and the magnitude of the trend under for the future time period, and the worst consideration. For example, a medium- case assumes that the strongest of the risk region of 3.6 with a strongly positive negative trends will occur. This holds trend line is likely to move into the low regardless of whether the positive (or risk level. Alternatively, a medium-risk negative) trend occurs among region of 6.4 with a weak trend line is destabilizing (or stabilizing) events. For unlikely to move into the low risk level, instance, if there is strongly positive trend but it could move into a high risk level among destabilizing events, this trend with a moderately deteriorating trend. would be used to extrapolate events for the best case scenario. If there is a strongly negative trend among stabilizing events, this trend would be used for the worst case. The status quo, on the other hand, will extrapolate future tendencies based on the overall trend. For instance, if there is moderate overall improvement, then the status quo assumes that this is the trend for the future. Events are then surmised based on these trends in order to provide a conjectured future case.
Each case concludes by estimating the region’s future capacity to absorb damaging events and take advantage of
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 36 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University Sub-national Report for SCG: Events, Forecasting and Analysis
13.2. Description of Events Data Collection
Events were collected in one of two analysts as daily emails (if news events methods for this study. were found for that day) which were then coded into a Microsoft Access Database In most cases, the news-parsing using the methodology described above. technology of Google-Alerts (www.google.com/alerts) was employed The other method by which data was to scan and collect daily reports of events gathered for this study was to collect the data reported by the international press data post-facto. Some sub-national about the particular sub-national region of regions’ data was collected only partially interest. Search terms were identified by using Google-Alerts so a more robust the sub-national region itself and as a reassessment of the monitoring time result of the stakeholder analysis (if one period was required. To do this, analysts actor or group tended to garner a employed a LexisNexis search for the significant amount of press but not monitoring period and using the same necessarily reported in the same news search parameters as had been used with stories as the name of the sub-national Google-Alerts. The events collected using region); in some cases, alternate spellings this methodology are identical in type to and transliterations were used as search the daily digest-type – the only difference terms to ensure a more robust set of data. is the timing in which the analysts coded News reports were then delivered to the events was not continuous.
Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, July 2006 37 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University