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China Luxury Report 2019 How Young Chinese Consumers Are Reshaping Global Luxury

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China Luxury Report 2019 How Young Chinese Consumers Are Reshaping Global Luxury McKinsey Greater China’s Apparel, Fashion and Luxury Group China Luxury Report 2019 How young Chinese consumers are reshaping global luxury April 2019 Introduction This is the story of how a new At the high end, negative impacts Research for the 2019 McKinsey China generation of Chinese consumers are are evident in Hong Kong, where Luxury Report shows that the majority powering the global luxury market, and jewelry sales and imports of Swiss of these young consumers are fresh to the double-edged sword they present watches have slowed, but even in these market, presenting both a tantalizing to the world’s leading luxury brands. categories demand remains relatively opportunity and an implicit imperative strong on the mainland. for brands to stay current, or risk losing Set to be the engine of global out to more digitally savvy rivals. spending on high-end shoes, bags, Indeed, the luxury segment remains fashion, jewelry, and watches, China’s robust, amid a continuation of a trend What’s more, while some fashion affluent upper-middle class presents in premiumization that has seen sales houses excel at various aspects of an enticing prospect for the world’s of premium cars and premium beer, online marketing and commerce, even designer brands. as well as prestige beauty products, the most popular luxury brands have yet outperform the wider market. to establish a comprehensive presence Imbued with a confidence to spend across the digital ecosystem. underpinned by a lifetime watching new Young Chinese consumers view skyscrapers rise in tandem with their ownership and affiliation with designer Consequently, opportunity abounds as family incomes, these consumers are brands as a form of social capital; not brands seek to engage the attention of eager to tap luxury as a means of social just something to wear, but a lifestyle consumers in the world’s most lucrative advancement and self-differentiation. choice that marks them as part of a and fastest-growing luxury market. distinct and exclusive community. This is so even in the context of the sharpest slowdown in China’s That community is constantly being economy since the financial crisis, refreshed via a glittering stream of and with it a slide in demand for online content, keeping pace with which discretionary items such as new cars demands consumers are “always on,” and mobile phones. immersed and engaged in a digital world that is nothing short of a way of life. 2 China Luxury Report 2019 China Luxury Report 2019 3 China is winning half the luxury world Key takeaway 1: That growth will be primarily driven by This is in keeping with the notion that an explosion of upper-middle-class luxury in China is a winner-takes-all Chinese consumers households, the population of which will market, a tendency best reflected are set to contribute rise at a compound annual growth rate in the composition of the country’s almost two-thirds of 28 percent from 2018 to 2025, taking fashion market. As explored in our the total number of people in China State of Fashion 2019 report, the vast of global growth in earning between $2,600 and $3,900 majority of fashion-industry profit in luxury spending per month per household to 350 million. China is secured by the top 20 percent China’s affluent class (households of companies, creating a polarized China delivered more than half the earning above $3,900 per month) will market dominated by a subset of global growth in luxury spending almost triple to 65 million people during “super winners.” between 2012–18, and is expected the same time period. The same can be said for luxury, to deliver 65 percent of the world’s The majority of them, about 70 percent placing the onus on brands to stay additional spending heading into 2025, in fact, will be doing their luxury at or near the top of the market or according to research based on spending overseas, a result of an risk sliding into irrelevancy. This UnionPay transaction data for the increasing affinity for outbound travel1 demands an aggressive yet flexible 2019 McKinsey China Luxury Report. and the price differential resulting approach, particularly as we expect In 2018, Chinese consumers at home from China’s import tax regime and macroeconomic headwinds will and abroad spent 770 billion RMB brands’ own pricing policies. However, eventually take a toll on wealthy ($115 billion) on luxury items—equivalent that ratio may shift in favor of domestic Chinese consumers, or at least the to a third of the global spend—with each spending as a result of moves to cut value of their assets. luxury-consuming household spending luxury import taxes. an average of 80,000 RMB per year. While some luxury brands have posted Their outlay is set to almost double to disappointing results due to weak China 1.2 trillion RMB by 2025, when demand, the likes of LVMH, the world’s 40 percent of the world’s spending largest luxury group, and Switzerland’s on luxury goods will be conducted by Richemont, owner of Cartier, reported Chinese consumers (Exhibit 1). their China sales accelerated in the final quarter of last year. 1 Our Chinese tourists: Dispelling the myths report suggests Chinese travelers will make 160 million outbound trips each year by 2020, with spending tipped to grow 6.1 percent over the next couple of years. 4 China Luxury Report 2019 Exhibit 1 China is winning half of the luxury world. Global personal luxury goods1 market evolution 2020–25 compound RMB2 billion annual growth rate 3,117 2,609 2,406 China luxury is 2% 1,779 770 billion RMB today and will double to 1.2 trillion RMB by Other worldwide 2025, delivering 65% of consumers 2018–25 global growth 1,227 921 (40%) 770 6% Chinese (35%) 334 (32%) consumers3 (19%) 2012 2018 2020 2025 McKinsey & Company 1 1Ready to wear, accessories, watches and jewelry, and beauty. 2Fixed exchange rate of €1 = 7.3 RMB. 3Both domestic and overseas spending. SOURCE: China Luxury Report 2019; China Luxury Report 2017 China Luxury Report 2019 5 China’s young luxury consumers Key takeaway 2: Now, at the peak of their career and The post-’90s consumers are the earnings, and with a passport likely vanguard of China’s urban middle- The post-’80s/’90s stamped with trips to the world’s most class, a dynamic and digitally generations, many glamorous cities, they are spending engrossed cohort that as the “single new to luxury, power to show off their success, and to child generation” are the recipients of demonstrate individualism in the world’s an outsize level of familial support. Two- the Chinese market most populous urban landscape. thirds told us their parents support their luxury spend, with McKinsey Global Following in the footsteps of their China’s post-’80s (born in the 1980s) Institute modeling suggesting that slightly older peers, China’s post-’90s generation, who broadly map to upper-middle-class Chinese families consumers, better known as Generation Y, are the driving force of top up their post-’90s children’s bank Generation Z, are delivering the shot in the country’s luxury appetite. balance by at least 4,000 RMB per the arm China’s luxury market needed month, or half their personal income. Consisting of 10.2 million luxury to emerge from several years of This financial cushion has a large impact consumers, they accounted for more stagnant growth. than half the total spending on luxury by on these young consumers’ willingness Chinese consumers in 2018 (Exhibit 2). Enticed by luxury streetwear and to spend, and spend big, on luxury. other product lines targeted squarely Having grown up in step with China’s at their demographic, the post-’90s emergence as a global superpower, consumers spend 25,000 RMB a year they are the primary beneficiaries of the on luxury goods, already as much as economy’s rapid and unbroken growth, their parents—the post-’65s/’70s and spend an average of 41,000 RMB generation popularly referred to as per person each year on luxury. Generation X. Post-80s are still the largest luxury spending group in terms ofExhibit both 2 consumer numbers and total spending Post-’80s consumers are still the largest luxury spending group in terms of both consumer numbers and total spending. Total no. luxury consumers by generation Million, % Post-’65s/’70s Post-’80s Post-’90s 2018 7.0 (29%) 10.2 (43%) 6.7 (28%) 23.9 Annual luxury spending by generation Billion RMB, % 2018 185 (22%) 415 (56%) 170 (23%) 770 Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. SOURCE: China Luxury Report 2019 6 China Luxury Report 2019 A whole new world 31 percent of post-’80s consumers, Instead of legacy reputations only made their first luxury purchase in established over hundreds of years in Research for the 2019 McKinsey the last year (Exhibit 3). Europe, these new luxury consumers China Luxury Report shows that are influenced more by what is China’s young consumers are new to Luxury is also a relative novelty for many happening right now, leaving ample luxury, and thus have a less nuanced of the post-’65s/’70s group—just under room for brands with the right strategy understanding of the heritage upon half bought their first designer item less to shape their tastes. which the market traditionally trades. than three years ago. Nine out of 10 of the youngest generation and more than Only 13 percent of post-’80s/’90s two-thirds of post-’80s consumers, luxury spenders said they grew up in a also only started their engagement with family familiar with the finer things in luxury within the last three years.
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