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Influence of Precipitation and Temperature on Maize Production In www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Infuence of precipitation and temperature on maize production in the Czech Republic from 2002 to 2019 Mansoor Maitah*, Karel Malec & Kamil Maitah Maize is one of the important food crops in the Czech Republic, its growth and productivity are infuenced by climate change. This study investigated the infuence of precipitation under recent climate change on maize yield both for grain and silage in the whole Czech Republic during 2002–2019. Total maize yield and yield rate increased in the Czech Republic from 1961 to 2010, but they became to decrease after 2010. This is in line with the tendency of decreased precipitation and an increase in temperature after 2010, and changes are especially signifcant during the maize growing period, which indicates the importance of temperature and precipitation. In detail, there is a low to moderate negative correlation (−0.39 to −0.51) between grain maize yield and the average temperature in August for almost all the regions. While there is a low negative correlation between silage maize yield with the average temperature in July and August from some regions. The precipitation in July exhibited moderate to high positive correlation (0.54–0.79) to grain maize yield rate for almost all the regions, and it had low to moderate positive correlation (0.35–0.70) to silage maize yield rate for all the regions. Water defcit exhibited a negative correlation with both maize yield rate and its infuence mainly in July for silage but both in July and August for grain. Farmer’s proft from grain maize is infuence by yield rate, temperature, precipitation, and water defcit. A positive correlation was found between proft and grain yield rate and precipitation from July and August, while a negative correlation was detected between proft and water defcit and the average temperature in July and August. In conclusion, our results pointed out the factors infuencing maize yield rate under changing climate conditions in the Czech Republic, and it warrants further studies on how to maintain maize production in a changing climate. Cereals (maize, rice and wheat) are of vital importance for humans, and their world annual demand is expected to over 3.3 billion tonnes by 2050, which is 600 million tonnes more than 2019 1. Maize is one of the world’s most widely produced and consumed cereal crops, and its global production reached 1.1 billion tonnes in 2019 2. Besides its primary use for food, it’s also used in the industry to produce biofuels, to extract starch, oil and other substances for industrial uses. However, the rising demand for maize and declining productivity could triple the developing world’s maize imports by 2050. Terefore, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) proposed the ‘Save and Grow’ model of crop production intensifcation aims at increasing both yields and nutritional quality while reducing costs to farmers and the environment1. Europe is one of the world’s biggest and most benefcial providers of food and fber. In 2008, it represented 20% of worldwide cereal production. About 63% of the European cereals are produced in the EU27 nations. Te proftability of European farming is by and large high, specifcally in Central Europe, and normal cereal yields in the EU nations are over 60% higher than the world normal3. Intensive cultivating frameworks in central Europe, by and large, have a low sensitivity to environmental and climate change, on the grounds that a given change in temperature or precipitation has an unobtrusive efect4. Concentrated frameworks in cool environments may along these lines react well to unobtrusive climatic warming 3. Ten again, a portion of the cultivating frameworks as of now situated in sweltering and dry territories are required to be most seriously infuenced by environmental and climate change5. Tere is a huge variety across the European mainland in climatic conditions, soils, land use, framework, political and monetary conditions6. Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 16500, Czech Republic. *email: [email protected] Scientifc Reports | (2021) 11:10467 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89962-2 1 Vol.:(0123456789) www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Maize is one of the most important crops in the Czech Republic, and it is grown both for silage and food. Te Czech Republic is a net importer for maize with annual growth of world imports of 5%, and an annual increase in world market share is −13.33%. Te value of maize (excluding seed for sowing) imported in 2019 is 42,800 thousand USD while a trade balance in 2019 is −14,601 thousand USD 7. In the Czech Republic, the interest in cultivating maize increased dramatically since 1990 (land for maize production increase from 44,941 ha in 1990, to 75,853 ha in 2019) with its total yield (t) has grown over fvefold and the unit yield (t/ha) increased about threefold. Tis is driven by one of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture’s aims to ensure food self-sufcient by 2030 concerning climate change. Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its impact is diferent based on each region. In Europe, less precipitation in summer and rising temperatures will lead to more frequent and intense summer droughts. Te Mediterranean region is already experiencing these efects and is expected to sufer from more extreme droughts in the coming decades, together with other regions, such as central Europe. Water availability and drought have become one of the main factors afecting feld crop yields and variability in the Czech Republic 8. Te efect of climate change will be evident in the feld of agriculture especially when it comes to crop yields and the loca- tion where these crops can be grown. For example, the climatic variability infuences crop (winter wheat and spring barley) yield variability in the Czech Republic is more now than it did in the late 19th and early twentieth centuries9. Te extreme weather events such as especially heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation are already shown to cause crop failure and infuence crop yield variability in the Czech Republic as well as other European countries over the centuries10–12. Te average global temperatures have increased, while the U.S corn belt has experienced a decrease in tem- peratures; thus, leading to a boost of corn yield 13. On the other side of the Atlantic, France and Romania hold- ing the front for corn production in Europe with 21% and 13%, respectively. European Union has presented a steady growth afer the drastic decrease in 2015 of 25%14. One feature remains true for all regions meaning that maize production declines when extreme temperatures occur during pollination and the same happens during periods of water defcits. Tigchelaar et al. (2018) combined empirical models of maize production with future warming scenarios, and it shows that maize yields are foreseen to decline by 20–40% and 40–60% with a tem- perature increase of 2 and 4 °C, respectively15. Meanwhile, a statistical model was used to estimate the efects of heat stress and drought on annual maize production, variability, and trend from the country level to the global scale, and heat stress and drought can explain 50% of the observed global production variability in the period 1980–2010. Furthermore, the model shows global maize losses, due to extreme climate events with a 10‐year return (1980–2010), which will become the new normal already at 1.5 °C global warming levels (approximately 2020s). At 2 °C warming (the late 2030s), maize areas will be afected by heat stress and drought never experi- enced before, afecting many major and minor production regions16. In this decade (2011–2019), the average annual temperature increased by 0.7 °C and average annual precipi- tation decreased by 88 mm compared to the last decade (2001–2010) in the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, the maize yield rate slightly decreased from 7.73 t/ha (2001–2010) to 7.67 t/ha (2011–2019). Tis decrease can be signifcant when considering the improvement of technological and management on maize production. Tere- fore, the objective of this study is to (1) explore the infuence of precipitation on current maize production (for grain and silage) in the Czech Republic; (2) investigate the infuence of climate change (especially temperature, precipitation, and water defcit) on maize yield rate in the Czech Republic; (3) evaluate farmer’s income from maize harvest under climate change (especially temperature, precipitation, and water defcit)impact. Material and methods Study area. Te Czech Republic belongs to central Europe, and it lies mostly between lati- tudes 48° and 51°N and longitudes 12° and 19°E. It has typical European continental infuenced temperate cli- mate with warm, dry summer and fairly cold winter. Temperatures vary depending on the elevation with tem- peratures decrease while precipitation increases at higher altitudes. Te highest temperature normally in July, followed by August and June, and most precipitation during the summer period. More detailed information is shown in Fig. 1. Data collection and analysis. Te data of maize yields and cost for maize production (both for grain and silage) in the Czech Republic including 14 regions from 2002 to 2019 were obtained from the Institute of Agri- cultural Economics and Information (IAEI, http:// www. iaei. cz). Te temperatures and rainfall data from 1961 to 2019 come from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI, https:// www. chmi. cz/ histo ricka- data/ pocasi/ zakla dni- infor mace?l= en). Te climate maps for temperature and precipitation are obtained from the CHMI as well. Te grain maize yield from 1920–2019 was collected from the Czech Statistical Ofce (https:// www.
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