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[Fully revised and rewritten Jan 2009] quickly than others? And why do others fail? of Innovations seeks to explain how Diffusion scholars recognise five qualities that innovations are taken up in a population. An determine the success of an . innovation is an idea, behaviour, or object that is perceived as new by its audience. 1) Relative advantage This is the degree to which an innovation Diffusion of Innovations offers three valuable is perceived as better than the idea it insights into the process of social change: supersedes by a particular group of users, measured in terms that matter to those users, - What qualities make an innovation spread. like economic advantage, social prestige, convenience, or satisfaction. The greater the - The importance of peer-peer conversations perceived relative advantage of an innovation, and peer networks. the more rapid its rate of adoption is likely to be. - Understanding the needs of different user segments. There are no absolute rules for what constitutes “relative advantage”. It depends These insights have been tested in more than on the particular perceptions and needs of the 6000 studies and field tests, so they user group. are amongst the most reliable in the social sciences. 2) Compatibility with existing values and practices What qualities make innovations This is the degree to which an innovation is spread? perceived as being consistent with the values, past experiences, and needs of potential Diffusion of Innovations takes a radically adopters. An idea that is incompatible with different approach to most other of their values, norms or practices will not be change. Instead of focusing on persuading adopted as rapidly as an innovation that is individuals to change, it sees change as being compatible. primarily about the evolution or “reinvention” of products and behaviours so they become 3) Simplicity and ease of use better fits for the needs of individuals and This is the degree to which an innovation is groups. In Diffusion of Innovations it is not perceived as difficult to understand and use. people who change, but the innovations New ideas that are simpler to understand are themselves. adopted more rapidly than innovations that require the adopter to develop new skills and Why do certain innovations spread more understandings.

1 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

4) Trialability incredible sense of loyalty and ownership of This is the degree to which an innovation that brand. Instead of complaining, they fix can be experimented with on a limited basis. the product.”2 An innovation that is trialable represents less uncertainty to the individual who is The concept of reinvention is important considering it. because it tells us that no product or process can rest on it’s laurels: continuous 5) Observable results improvement is the key to spreading an The easier it is for individuals to see the innovation. results of an innovation, the more likely they are to adopt it. Visible results lower The importance of peer-peer uncertainty and also stimulate peer conversations and peer networks discussion of a new idea, as friends and neighbours of an adopter often request The second important insight is that information about it. impersonal methods like advertising and media stories may spread According to , these five information about new innovations, but it’s qualities determine between 49 and 87 conversations that spread adoption. percent of the variation in the adoption of new products. 1 Why? Because the adoption of new products or behaviours involves the management These five qualities make a valuable of risk and uncertainty. It’s usually only checklist to frame focus group discussions or people we personally know and trust – and project evaluations. They can help identify who we know have successfully adopted weaknesses to be addressed when improving the innovation themselves – who can give products or behaviours. us credible reassurances that our attempts to change won’t result in embarrassment, Reinvention is a key principle in Diffusion humiliation, financial loss or wasted time. of Innovations. The success of an innovation depends on how well it evolves to meet the Early adopters are the exception to this needs of more and more demanding and risk- rule. They are on the lookout for advantages averse individuals in a population (the and tend to see the risks as low because of the mobile phone is a perfect example). they are financially more secure, more personally confident, and better informed A good way to achieve this is to make users about the particular product or behaviour. into partners in a continuous process Often they will grasp at innovations on the of redevelopment. Computer games basis of no more than a well worded news companies, pharmaceutical corporations article. The rest of the population, however, and rural research institutes are examples see higher risks in change, and therefore of organisations that seek to make users require assurance from trusted peers that an active partners in improving innovations by innovation is do-able and provides genuine supporting user communities or by applying benefits. participative action research techniques. As an innovation spreads from early Many computer games are now built with adopters to majority audiences, face-to- the intention that they will be modified by face therefore becomes enthusiastic users. Says more essential to the decision to adopt. This expert, Francine Gardin. “They’re actually principle is embodied in the Bass Forecasting participating in the design of the game. These Model (below), which illustrates how face-to- consumers are really passionate about the face communication becomes more influential game – it’s almost like a cult. They have an over time, and mass media less influential.

2 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

Adoptions due to Adoptions due to mass media interpersonal communication

Time

The Bass Forecasting Model. Source: Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990) as reproduced in Rogers, E.M. (2003) p210.

The emphasis on peer-peer communication Each group has its own “personality”, at least has led diffusion scholars to be interested as far as its attitude to a particular innovation in peer networks. Many diffusion-style goes. campaigns now consciously attempt to utilise peer networks, for instance by using Popular When thinking about these groups, don’t Opinion Leader techniques or various “viral imagine it’s your job to shift people from one marketing” methods. These methods – which segment to another. It doesn’t work that way. are becoming increasingly popular – aim to It’s best to think of the membership of each recruit well-connected individuals to spread segment as static. Innovations spread when new ideas through their own social networks. they evolve to meet the needs of successive segments. Opinion leader tactics have been successful in raising the standards of practice by Innovators: The adoption process begins medical doctors,3 promoting weatherisation with a tiny number of visionary, imaginative of homes,4 and encouraging in gay innovators. They often lavish great time, communities.5 energy and creativity on developing new ideas and gadgets. And they love to talk Rogers notes that by 2003 there had been about them. Right now, they’re the ones eight randomised controlled trials – the busily building stills to convert cooking oil gold standard in evaluation – all of which into diesel fuel and making websites to tell demonstrated the success of opinion leader the world about it. Unfortunately their one- tactics in producing behavioural changes. eyed fixation on a new behaviour or gadget can make them seem dangerously idealistic Understanding the needs of different to the pragmatic majority. Yet no change user segments program can thrive without their energy and commitment. Diffusion researchers believe that a population can be broken down into five How to work with innovators: different segments, based on their propensity to adopt a specific innovation: innovators, • Track them down and become their “first early adopters, early majorities, late followers”7, providing support and publicity majorities and laggards. for their ideas.

3 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

Diffusion scholars believe any population or can be broken down into five segments, for any given innovation.

• Invite keen innovators to be partners in Fortunately early adopters are an easy designing your project. audience. They don’t need much persuading because they are on the lookout for anything Early adopters: Once the benefits start that could give them a social or economic to become apparent, early adopters leap in. edge. When you call a public meeting to They are on the lookout for a strategic leap discuss energy-saving devices or new farming forward in their lives or businesses and are methods, they’re the ones who come along. quick to make connections between clever They’re the first people in your block to install innovations and their personal needs. a water tank, mulch their garden, buy laptops for their kids, or install solar panels. They love getting an advantage over their peers and they have time and money to Some authorities talk about a “chasm” invest. They’re often fashion conscious and between visionary early adopters and love to be seen as leaders: social prestige is pragmatic majorities.8 They think the chasm one of their biggest drivers. Their natural explains why many products are initially desire to be trend setters causes the “take-off” popular with early adopters but crash and of an innovation. Early adopters tend to be burn before they reach mass markets. Everett more economically successful, well connected Rogers disagreed9 with the idea of a chasm. and well informed and hence more socially He thought early adopters and majorities respected. Their seemingly risky plunge into formed a continuum. However most early a new activity sets tongues wagging. Others adopters still have radically different interests watch to see whether they prosper of fail, and needs from most majorities, so even if and people start talking about the results. there’s no real chasm it’s a useful mental And early adopters like to talk about their construct that warns us against the easy successes. So the buzz intensifies. What early assumption that one size fits all. Once again, adopters say about an innovation determines what makes products or practices spread is its success. The more they crow and preen, not persuasion. It’s the whether the product the more likely the new behaviour or product or behaviour is being reinvented to become will be perceived positively by the majority of easier, simpler, quicker, cheaper, and more a population. advantageous.

Early adopters are vital for another reason. How to work with early adopters: They become an independent test bed, ironing out the chinks and reinventing the • Offer strong face-to-face support for a innovation to suit mainstream needs. limited number of early adopters to trial the new idea. 4 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

• Study the trials carefully to discover how to • Lower the entry cost and guarantee make the idea more convenient, low cost and performance. marketable. • Redesign to maximise ease and simplicity. • Reward their egos e.g. with media coverage. • Cut the red tape: simplify application forms • Promote them as fashion leaders (beginning and instructions. with the cultish end of the media market). • Provide strong customer service and • Recruit and train some as peer educators. support.

• Maintain relationships with regular Late majority: They are conservative feedback. pragmatists who hate risk and are uncomfortable your new idea. Practically Early majority: Assuming the product or their only driver is the fear of not fitting in, behaviour leaps the chasm, it may eventually hence they will follow mainstream fashions reach majority audiences. Early majorities and established standards. They are often are pragmatists, comfortable with moderately influenced by the fears and opinions of progressive ideas, but won’t act without solid laggards. proof of benefits. They are followers who are influenced by mainstream fashions and How to work with the late majority: wary of fads. They want to hear “industry standard” and “endorsed by normal, • Focus on promoting social norms rather respectable folks”. than just product benefits: they’ll want to hear that plenty of other conservative folks like Majorities are cost sensitive and risk averse. themselves think it’s normal or indispensable. They are looking for simple, proven, better ways of doing what they already do. They • Keep refining the product to increase require guaranteed off-the-shelf performance, convenience and reduce costs. minimum disruption, minimum commitment of time, minimum learning, and either cost • Emphasise the risks of being left behind. neutrality or rapid payback periods. And they hate complexity. They haven’t got time • Respond to criticisms from laggards. to think about your product or project. They’re too busy getting the kids to football Laggards: Meanwhile laggards hold out and running their businesses. If they do to the bitter end. They are people who see a have spare time they’re not going to spend it high risk in adopting a particular product or fussing around with complicated, expensive, behaviour. Some of them are so worried they inconvenient products or behaviours. They stay awake all night, tossing and turning, want to hear “plug-and-play”, “no sweat” or thinking up arguments against it. And don’t “user-friendly” and “value for money”. forget they might be right! It’s possible they are not really not laggards at all, but How to work with the early majority: innovators of ideas that are so new they challenge your paradigms! In the early stages, • Offer give-aways or competitions to where you are focusing on early adopters, you stimulate buzz. can probably ignore the views of laggards, but when you come to work with late majorities • Use mainstream advertising and media you’ll need to address their criticisms, stories featuring endorsements from credible, because late majorities share many of their respected, similar folks. fears.

5 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

How to work with laggards: Of course, no one is an innovator or a • Give them high levels of personal control laggard about all new ideas. That would over when, where, how and whether they do be too exhausting. In reality, most people the new behaviour. are majorities about most things, and only innovators or laggards about certain specific • Maximise their familiarity with new things. We wouldn’t say “John is a laggard”, products or behaviours. Let them see exactly we’d say “John is an iPhone laggard” or how other laggards have successfully adopted “George Bush snr is a broccoli laggard”. the innovation. Reading Each of these adopter personalities is very different. It’s vital to know which one you The standard text is Everett M. Rogers, are addressing at a given time. And no, Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth Edition you usually can’t address them all at once. 2003, Free Press, New York. It’s thorough, Why? Because products and behaviours only readable, and strongly recommended for mature gradually. The exception is when you anyone who’s serious about making change. have customized quite different products or behaviours for each group. Weight Watchers is an example. It has a traditional calorie- Endnotes counting method that suits early adopters, a “points value” method that suits early 1 Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth majorities, and a “no count” system for Edition 2003, Free Press, New York, p221 everyone else. 2 Quoted in Purcell, P. (2004) A quick mod takes gamers beyond their doom, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 August How big is each segment? Rogers went as far 3 Soumerai, S.B. et al (1998) Effect of Local Medical as assigning precise notional percentages for Opinion Leaders on Quality of Care for Acute each segment: Myocardial Infarction, A randomized controlled trial, Journal of the American Medical Association Vol 279, Innovators: 2.5% pp1358-1363 4 Early Adopters: 13.5% Hirst, E. (1989) Reaching for 100 percent participation in a utility conservation programme The Early majority: 34% Hood River project, Energy Policy Vol 17(2) pp155-164 5 Late majority 34% Kelly, J.A. et al (1997) Randomised, controlled, community-level HIV-prevention intervention for Laggards 16% 10 sexual-risk behaviour amongst homosexual men in US cities, The Lancet Vol 350, 9090; Health Module p1500 However the “20:60:20 Rule” is a good all- 6 Rogers op. cit. p322 purpose rule of thumb. 7 See Derek Sivers’ entertaining Youtube video on the subject of first followers. It’s a delightful When designing a change project you need to demonstration of diffusion in action: http://www. know one vital fact: the percentage who have youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ already taken up the innovation. That figure 8 Moore, Geoffrey, A. (1999) Marketing and Selling tells you which segment you are addressing High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers, Revised edition, HarperCollins, New York next. It gives you great insight into how to 9 Rogers op. cit. p282 design your project and how to pitch your 10 . ibid. p281

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