A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations Experiences, and Needs of Potential Individuals in a Population (The History Adopters

A summary of CHANGEOLOGY Diffusion of by Les Robinson “An enjoyable, inspiring Innovations crash course in social change thinking.” By Les Robinson Now on Amazon.

[Fully revised and rewritten Jan 2009]

behaviours so they become better Diffusion of Innovations seeks to fits for the needs of individuals and explain how innovations are taken groups. In Diffusion of Innovations up in a population. An innovation is it is not people who change, but the an idea, behaviour, or object that is innovations themselves. perceived as new by its audience. Why do certain innovations spread Diffusion of Innovations offers three more quickly than others? And why valuable insights into the process of do others fail? Diffusion scholars social change: recognise five qualities that determine the success of an innovation. - What qualities make an innovation spread. 1) Relative advantage This is the degree to which an - The importance of peer-peer innovation is perceived as better conversations and peer networks. than the idea it supersedes by a particular group of users, measured - Understanding the needs of in terms that matter to those users, different user segments. like economic advantage, social prestige, convenience, or satisfaction. These insights have been tested in The greater the perceived relative more than 6000 research studies and advantage of an innovation, the more field tests, so they are amongst the rapid its rate of adoption is likely to most reliable in the social sciences. be.

What qualities make There are no absolute rules for what innovations spread? constitutes “relative advantage”. It depends on the particular perceptions Diffusion of Innovations takes a and needs of the user group. radically different approach to most other theories of change. Instead of 2) Compatibility with existing focusing on persuading individuals values and practices to change, it sees change as being This is the degree to which an primarily about the evolution or innovation is perceived as being “reinvention” of products and consistent with the values, past

1 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations experiences, and needs of potential individuals in a population (the history adopters. An idea that is incompatible of the mobile phone is a perfect with their values, norms or practices example). will not be adopted as rapidly as an innovation that is compatible. A good way to achieve this is to make users into partners in a 3) Simplicity and ease of use continuous process of redevelopment. This is the degree to which an Computer games companies, innovation is perceived as difficult to pharmaceutical corporations understand and use. New ideas that and rural research institutes are are simpler to understand are adopted examples of organisations that seek more rapidly than innovations that to make users active partners in require the adopter to develop new improving innovations by supporting skills and understandings. user communities or by applying participative action research 4) Trialability techniques. This is the degree to which an innovation can be experimented with Many computer games are now built on a limited basis. An innovation that with the intention that they will be is trialable represents less risk to the modified by enthusiastic users. Says individual who is considering it. consumer behaviour expert, Francine Gardin. “They’re actually participating 5) Observable results in the design of the game. These The easier it is for individuals to see consumers are really passionate the results of an innovation, the more about the game – it’s almost like a likely they are to adopt it. Visible cult. They have an incredible sense of results lower uncertainty and also loyalty and ownership of that brand. stimulate peer discussion of a new Instead of complaining, they fix the idea, as friends and neighbours of product.”2 an adopter often request information about it. The concept of reinvention is important because it tells us that no According to Everett Rogers, these product or process can rest on its five qualities determine between 49 laurels: continuous improvement is and 87 percent of the variation in the the key to spreading an innovation. adoption of new products. 1 The importance of peer- These five qualities make a valuable peer conversations and peer checklist to frame focus group networks discussions or project evaluations. They can help identify weaknesses The second important insight is to be addressed when improving that impersonal marketing methods products or behaviours. like advertising and media stories may spread information about new Reinvention is a key principle in innovations, but it’s conversations Diffusion of Innovations. The success that spread adoption. of an innovation depends on how well it evolves to meet the needs of more Why? Because the adoption of new and more demanding and risk-averse products or behaviours involves the

2 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

Adoptions due to mass media Adoptions due to interpersonal communication

Time

The Bass Forecasting Model. Source: Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990) as reproduced in Rogers, E.M. (2003) p210. management of risk and uncertainty. becomes more essential to the It’s usually only people we personally decision to adopt. This principle is know and trust – and who we know embodied in the Bass Forecasting have successfully adopted the Model (above), which illustrates how innovation themselves – who can face-to-face communication becomes give us credible reassurances that more influential over time, and mass our attempts to change won’t result media less influential. in embarrassment, humiliation, financial loss or wasted time. They The emphasis on peer-peer are the people whose lived example communication has led diffusion is the best teacher of how to adopt an scholars to be interested in peer innovation. networks. Many diffusion-style campaigns now consciously attempt Early adopters are the exception to to utilise peer networks, for this rule. They are on the lookout for instance by using Popular Opinion advantages and tend to see the risks Leader techniques or various “viral as low because they are financially marketing” methods. These methods more secure, more personally – which are becoming increasingly confident, and better informed about popular – aim to recruit well- the particular product or behaviour. connected individuals to spread Often they will grasp at innovations new ideas through their own social on the basis of no more than a well networks. worded news article. The rest of the population, however, see higher risks Opinion leader tactics have been in change, and therefore require successful in raising the standards assurance from trusted peers that an of practice by medical doctors,3 innovation is do-able and provides promoting weatherisation of homes,4 genuine benefits. and encouraging safe sex in gay communities.5 As an innovation spreads from early adopters to majority audiences, face- Rogers notes that by 2003 there had to-face communication therefore been eight randomised controlled

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Early majority Late majority

Innovators Early adopters Laggards

High Propensity to adopt Low Low Propensity to resist High

Diffusion scholars believe any population or social network can be broken down into five segments, for any given innovation. trials – the gold standard in evaluation And they love to talk about them. – all of which demonstrated the Right now, they’re the ones busily success of opinion leader tactics in building stills to convert cooking producing behavioural changes. oil into diesel fuel and making websites to tell the world about it. Understanding the needs of Unfortunately their one-eyed fixation different user segments on a new behaviour or gadget can make them seem dangerously Diffusion researchers believe that idealistic to the pragmatic majority. a population can be broken down Yet no change program can into five different segments, based thrive without their energy and on their propensity to adopt a commitment. specific innovation: innovators, early adopters, early majorities, late How to work with innovators: majorities and laggards. • Track them down and become their 7 Each group has its own “personality”, “first followers” , providing support at least as far as its attitude to a and publicity for their ideas. particular innovation goes. • Invite keen innovators to be When thinking about these groups, partners in designing your project. don’t imagine it’s your job to shift people from one segment to another. Early adopters: It doesn’t work that way. It’s best Once the benefits start to become to think of the membership of each apparent, early adopters leap in. They segment as static. Innovations spread are on the lookout for a strategic leap when they evolve to meet the needs forward in their lives or businesses of successive segments. and are quick to make connections between clever innovations and their Innovators: personal needs. The adoption process begins with a tiny number of visionary, imaginative They love getting an advantage over innovators. They often lavish great their peers and they have time and time, energy and creativity on money to invest. They’re often fashion developing new ideas and gadgets. conscious and love to be seen as

4 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations leaders: social prestige is one of their and majorities formed a continuum. biggest drivers. Their natural desire to However most early adopters still be trend setters causes the “take-off” have radically different interests of an innovation. Early adopters tend and needs from most majorities, so to be more economically successful, even if there’s no real chasm it’s a well connected and well informed and useful mental construct that warns hence more socially respected. Their us against the easy assumption seemingly risky plunge into a new that one size fits all. Once again, activity sets tongues wagging. Others what makes products or practices watch to see whether they prosper spread is not persuasion. It’s the of fail, and people start talking about whether the product or behaviour is the results. And early adopters like being reinvented to become easier, to talk about their successes. So the simpler, quicker, cheaper, and more buzz intensifies. What early adopters advantageous. say about an innovation determines its success. The more they crow How to work with early adopters: and preen, the more likely the new behaviour or product will be perceived • Offer strong face-to-face support for positively by the majority of a a limited number of early adopters to population. trial the new idea. • Study the trials carefully to Early adopters are vital for another discover how to make the idea more reason. They become an independent convenient, low cost and marketable. test bed, ironing out the chinks and reinventing the innovation to suit • Reward their egos e.g. with media mainstream needs. coverage.

Fortunately early adopters are an • Promote them as fashion leaders easy audience. They don’t need much (beginning with the cultish end of the persuading because they are on the media market). lookout for anything that could give them a social or economic edge. • Recruit and train some as peer When you call a public meeting to educators. discuss energy-saving devices or new farming methods, they’re the ones • Maintain relationships with regular who come along. They’re the first feedback. people in your block to install a water tank, mulch their garden, buy laptops Early majority: for their kids, or install solar panels. Assuming the product or behaviour leaps the chasm, it may eventually Some authorities talk about a “chasm” reach majority audiences. Early between visionary early adopters and majorities are pragmatists, pragmatic majorities.8 They think the comfortable with moderately chasm explains why many products progressive ideas, but won’t act are initially popular with early without solid proof of benefits. They adopters but crash and burn before are followers who are influenced by they reach mass markets. Everett mainstream fashions and wary of Rogers disagreed9 with the idea of fads. They want to hear “industry a chasm. He thought early adopters standard” and “endorsed by normal,

5 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations respectable folks”. fashions and established standards. They are often influenced by the fears Majorities are cost sensitive and and opinions of laggards. risk averse. They are looking for simple, proven, better ways of doing How to work with the late majority: what they already do. They require guaranteed off-the-shelf performance, • Focus on promoting social norms minimum disruption, minimum rather than just product benefits: commitment of time, minimum they’ll want to hear that plenty learning, and either cost neutrality or of other conservative folks like rapid payback periods. And they hate themselves think it’s normal or complexity. They haven’t got time to indispensable. think about your product or project. They’re too busy getting the kids to • Keep refining the product to football and running their businesses. increase convenience and reduce If they do have spare time they’re not costs. going to spend it fussing around with complicated, expensive, inconvenient • Emphasise the risks of being left products or behaviours. They want to behind. hear “plug-and-play”, “no sweat” or “user-friendly” and “value for money”. • Respond to criticisms from laggards.

How to work with the early majority: Laggards: Meanwhile laggards hold out to the • Offer give-aways or competitions to bitter end. They are people who see stimulate buzz. a high risk in adopting a particular product or behaviour. Some of them • Use mainstream advertising and are so worried they stay awake all media stories featuring endorsements night, tossing and turning, thinking from credible, respected, similar folks. up arguments against it. And don’t forget they might be right! It’s • Lower the entry cost and guarantee possible they are not really not performance. laggards at all, but innovators of ideas that are so new they challenge • Redesign to maximise ease and your paradigms! In the early stages, simplicity. where you are focusing on early adopters, you can probably ignore • Cut the red tape: simplify the views of laggards, but when you application forms and instructions. come to work with late majorities you’ll need to address their criticisms, • Provide strong customer service and because late majorities share many support. of their fears.

Late majority: How to work with laggards: They are conservative pragmatists • Give them high levels of personal who hate risk and are uncomfortable control over when, where, how and your new idea. Practically their only whether they do the new behaviour. driver is the fear of not fitting in, hence they will follow mainstream • Maximise their familiarity with new

6 A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations products or behaviours. Let them most people are majorities about see exactly how other laggards have most things, and only innovators or successfully adopted the innovation. laggards about certain specific things. We wouldn’t say “John is a laggard”, Each of these adopter personalities we’d say “John is an iPhone laggard” is very different. It’s vital to know or “George Bush snr is a broccoli which one you are addressing at laggard”. a given time. And no, you usually can’t address them all at once. Why? Reading Because products and behaviours only mature gradually. The exception The standard text is Everett M. is when you have customized quite Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth different products or behaviours for Edition 2003, Free Press, New York. each group. Weight Watchers is an It’s thorough, readable, and strongly example. It has a traditional calorie- recommended for anyone who’s counting method that suits early serious about making change. adopters, a “points value” method that suits early majorities, and a “no count” system for everyone else. Endnotes 1 Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth Edition 2003, Free Press, New York, p221 How big is each segment? Rogers 2 Quoted in Purcell, P. (2004) A quick mod takes went as far as assigning precise gamers beyond their doom, Sydney Morning notional percentages for each Herald, 23 August segment: 3 Soumerai, S.B. et al (1998) Effect of Local Medical Opinion Leaders on Quality of Care Innovators: 2.5% for Acute Myocardial Infarction, A randomized controlled trial, Journal of the American Medical Early Adopters: 13.5% Association Vol 279, pp1358-1363 Early majority: 34% 4 Hirst, E. (1989) Reaching for 100 percent participation in a utility conservation programme Late majority 34% The Hood River project, Energy Policy Vol 17(2) pp155-164 Laggards 16% 10 5 Kelly, J.A. et al (1997) Randomised, controlled, community-level HIV-prevention intervention for However the “20:60:20 Rule” is a sexual-risk behaviour amongst homosexual men good all-purpose rule of thumb. in US cities, The Lancet Vol 350, 9090; Health Module p1500 6 Rogers op. cit. p322 When designing a change project 7 See Derek Sivers’ entertaining Youtube video you need to know one vital fact: the on the subject of first followers. It’s a delightful percentage in a given social system demonstration of diffusion in action: http:// who have already taken up the www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ 8 Moore, Geoffrey, A. (1999) Marketing and innovation. That figure tells you which Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream segment you are addressing next. It Customers, Revised edition, HarperCollins, New gives you great insight into how to York design your project and how to pitch 9 Rogers op. cit. p282 your communications. 10 ibid. p281

Of course, no one is an innovator or This work is licensed under a Creative a laggard about all new ideas. That Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- would be too exhausting. In reality, ShareAlike 4.0 International License.