2021 China Transparency Report Edited by Walter Lohman and Justin Rhee 2021 China Transparency Report Edited by Walter Lohman and Justin Rhee © 2021 by The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Ave., NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Cover Photo: Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. ISBN: 978-0-89195-304-3 CONTENTS Contributors ............................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................vii Preface ................................................................................................................. ix Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 Executive Summary .....................................................................................................5 Economy ...............................................................................................................21 Energy and Environment ...............................................................................................27 Human Rights ......................................................................................................... 35 Influence Operations .................................................................................................. 43 Military .................................................................................................................51 Outbound Investments ................................................................................................ 59 Politics and Law ........................................................................................................67 Technology ............................................................................................................ 75 Topical Essays Creating Some Clarity on the PLA Budget ........................................................................... 83 FREDERICO BARTELS China Considers Big Data a Fundamental Strategic Resource, .................................................................... and Africa May Offer an Especially Valuable Trove 87 JOSHUA MESERVEY Chinese Influence on and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities ............................................. 93 CHAD WOLF and JAMES JAY CARAFANO, PHD The Future of China’s Maritime Militia in the “New Situation”: A Primer .............................................. 101 COLLIN KOH Commanding Depths: China’s Bid to Dominate the Cloud—Under the Sea .......................................... 105 DAVID FEITH AND LARA D. CROUCH The South China Sea: 21st-Century Fulda Gap for Major War in Asia ................................................ 113 BRENT D. SADLER Methodology ......................................................................................................... 119 Endnotes ............................................................................................................. 121 Contributors Walter Lohman is Director of the Asian Studies Center, of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, at The Heritage Foundation. Justin Rhee is Program Coordinator in the Asian Studies Center, where he manages the China Transparency Project. Dean Cheng is Senior Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center, where he specializes in China’s military and foreign policy. The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org v Acknowledgements he China Transparency Report is the product Senior editor William T. Poole and senior Tof great effort by many people to make this research editor Karina Rollins bear primary type of publication possible. We wish to express responsibility for perfecting the language we our gratitude to the various individuals that have employ, and manager of data graphics John provided the data, research, graphics, design, edit- Fleming and Luke Karnick, data graphics spe- ing, and quality control for this report. cialist, created the wonderful charts and graphs Justin Rhee, program coordinator for the Asian that appear throughout the report. Therese Studies Center, shouldered the major task of Pennefather, director of Research Editors, played guiding production of the report. He worked with a key role in keeping the production on schedule. the authors, editors, and graphics and production Senior designer and web developer Jay Simon was professionals to make this report a reality. Senior responsible for the design and layout of the report, research fellow Dean Cheng and Justin provided and for preparing content for the website. Senior significant research and quality control. Asian designer Melissa Bluey designed the cover. Studies Center interns Hannah So and Luke Kim Kay C. James, president of The Heritage provided important production support. Foundation, has been an enthusiastic supporter Various Heritage foreign policy experts were and great source of encouragement in pro- instrumental in authoring this report: Dean Cheng, ducing this product. Helle Dale, Katie Tubb, Jeff Smith, and Olivia We would also like to express our apprecia- Enos. James Jay Carafano, PhD, vice president of tion to all of you who are paying close attention the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute to this report. The support and encouragement for National Security and Foreign Policy, provided of China Transparency Report readers around guidance and assistance throughout the process. the world serve as a major source of inspiration We would also like to express our gratitude to non- for our ongoing work. Heritage experts who authored the report’s topical essays, as well as recognize the invaluable contribu- tions from Nicolas Loris (formerly at Heritage), Andy Walter Lohman Keiser, Riley Walters (also formerly at Heritage), and Washington, DC the experts who responded to our survey. June 2021 The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org vii Preface he COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the the best available open-source information on the Tmost of devastating global crises of our time. domestic and foreign activities of the CCP. With millions of lives lost and unprecedented As China continues its rise, the actions of economic devastation, there are many questions the CCP have greater implications for everyone that must be answered to ensure that such a trag- across the globe. In the American context, U.S.– edy never happens again. But we cannot get those China relations will continue to be one of the answers without greater transparency from China, most important issues for decades to come. The where the virus originated. U.S. now faces a different China from a decade The Chinese government, under the governance ago. The emboldened leadership in Beijing has of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), neglected become increasingly aggressive, and in many its duty to the safety of its own people, and to the ways, it is a threat to America, its interests, and its world, in its handling of the pandemic. The CCP role in the world. must be held accountable, and for the sake of It is not the Chinese people that are at fault; those millions of lost lives, the world needs greater blames goes to the communist dictatorship that insight into what happened. oppresses them and jeopardizes the well-being But the need for transparency does not stop and liberty of nations around the world. Just as the with COVID-19. The pandemic was a monumental U.S. made a distinction in the Cold War between and much-needed turning point in U.S.–China the Soviet government and the Russian people, relations. It set off a chain reaction of calls for it must take great care to make the distinction greater accountability and transparency from the between the Chinese communist government and CCP, not just in public health issues, but in politics the Chinese people. and law, human rights, its military, foreign policy, This inaugural release of the 2021 China economics, and more. Transparency Report comes at a symbolic point To this end, The Heritage Foundation launched in China’s history. The year 2021 marks the 100th the China Transparency Project in 2020 to push anniversary of the CCP’s founding. As the leader- for greater official transparency and to shine a ship in Beijing celebrates the party’s centenary, the light on dozens of existing private efforts to gather free world will solemnly remember the millions of data on the CCP. The project provides a window to innocent lives lost at its hands. The Heritage Foundation | heritage.org ix America’s political leaders, policymakers, diplo- check, to neutralize its various threats, and to build mats, and those who advise them need data at their a better future for America, for the world, and per- fingertips to craft the policies critical to dealing haps even for the Chinese people. with China. More and better data and more atten- tion on data collection is what Heritage’s China Transparency Project intends to offer. Kay C. James, President With greater transparency on Chinese issues, The Heritage Foundation the U.S. can create policies to keep the CCP in June 2021 x China Transparency Report Introduction he Heritage Foundation’s China Transparency exacerbates the lack of transparency. As continued TReport assesses the current state of China’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control is its transparency on eight issues. It does so by ana- utmost priority, the CCP benefits from