Republican Primaries 2008 John Mccain
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Republican Primaries 2008 John McCain Type of paper: Master Thesis Study program: Cand.ling.merc Title: Republican Primaries 2008 – John McCain Name of author: Evelina Krajina CPR-no: Supervisor: Edward Ashbee Number of pages: 74,5 Total amount of pages: 86 Number of characters: 138.809 Submission date: June 01st, 2016. Copenhagen Business School. Resume. Denne afhandling er lavet baseret på en interesse af hvorfor John McCain blev valgt som Republikanernes præsidentkandidat, da han var meget bagefter i meningsmålene. Dette kom til udtryk ved at han lå lavt i meningsmålene igennem hele 2007, hvorefter han fra december 2007 til januar 2008 næsten fordobler tallene, og går fra 16 procent i december 2007 til 31 procent i januar 2008. Dette bliver startskuddet til en videre stigning i meningsmålene frem til 5 marts 2008, hvor han kan kalde sig Republikanernes præsidentkandidat, igennem at have sikret sig flest delegerede. Afhandlingen tager afsæt i en analyse af de tre andre præsidentkandidater, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee samt Rudy Giuliani, som på dette tidspunkt var den absolutte favorit. I dette kapitel analyseres det, til en hvilken grad de tre præsidentkandidater udgjorde en reel modstander. I kapitel 3 analyseres det i hvilken grad John McCain var en maverick på den politiske scene, samt hvilke mekanismer gjorde at han blev opfattet som en maverick. Til dette introduceres konceptet omkring Pavlovs hund, for at give læseren en forståelse af principperne bag betingelseslæring samt hvordan disse bruges, hvorefter Pavlovs hund anvendes på John McCain. I kapitel 4 analyseres vigtigheden af politisk støtte, og hvad dette gjorde ved John McCains valgkampagne. Til dette introduceres konceptet celebrity endorsement, samt vigtigheden af dette i en valgkampagne. I kapitel 5 og 6 analyseres vigtigheden af en distancering fra Præsident Bush samt mekanismerne som gjorde at John McCain var i stand til at vinde nomineringen. På baggrund af dette konkluderes, det at John McCain var en anden type kandidat. Han var kendt som en outsider i det Republikanske parti da han ofte gik imod de konventionelle rammer. Denne afhandling er fundet frem til at John McCain igennem en distancering fra Præsident Bush formår at vende krigen i Irak til et positioneringsredskap, da han i kraft af en politisk vedtagelse om at øge antallet af tropper i Irak, bliver hyldet som en udenrigspolitisk ekspert. Dette, samt en 1 kombination af intens valgkamp i New Hampshire og støtte fra den Demokratiske Senator Lieberman gjorde at han opnår et momentum som fører til en sejr i New Hampshire. Denne sejr bliver cementeringen af hans stigning i meningsmålingerne og danner et grundlag for at han kan bruge krigen i Irak til et positioneringsredskap. På denne måde opnår han tilslutning da han formår at vende valgkampagnen til en diskussion om et emne han anses som ekspert på – krigen i Irak. 2 Table of Contents RESUME. 1 1.0. INTRODUCTION. 5 1.1. RESEARCH QUESTION. 6 1.2. METHODOLOGY AND DELIMITATION. 6 1.3. DATA COLLECTION. 8 1.4. APPROACH AND FRAMEWORK. 9 2.0 WEAKER CANDIDATES. 10 2.1 MITT ROMNEY. 10 2.1.1. SALT LAKE CITY WINTER OLYMPICS 2002. 11 2.1.2. CRITICISM OF THE SALT LAKE CITY WINTER OLYMPICS. 11 2.1.3 GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS 12 2.1.4. 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES 14 2.1.5. SUMMARY. 14 2.2. MIKE HUCKABEE. 16 2.2.1. THE GOVERNOR OF ARKANSAS. 17 2.2.2. SUMMARY. 18 2.3. RUDY GIULIANI 18 2.3.1. THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK. 20 2.3.2. CRITICISM OF DECLINE IN CRIME. 22 2.3.3. POST SEPTEMBER 11TH. 23 2.3.4. REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT. 25 2.3.5 SUMMARY. 26 2.4. CHAPTER CONCLUSION. 27 3.0. POLITICAL IDENTITY. 29 3.1. MAVERICK TENDENCIES. 30 3.2. THE BIPARTISAN CAMPAIGN REFORM ACT. 31 3.4. PAVLOV’S DOG. 33 3.5. POLITICAL BEHAVIOR AND PAVLOV’S DOG. 34 3.6. LEADERSHIP STYLE AND POW. 37 3.7. CHAPTER CONCLUSION. 38 4.0. BACKING FROM KEY INTERESTS. 40 4.1. THE TRANSFER MEANING MODEL. 41 4.2. THE TRANSFER MEANING MODEL APPLIED ON JOHN MCCAIN. 43 4.3. RESTRUCTURING INSIDE THE MCCAIN CAMP. 45 4.4. ENDORSEMENT FROM JOE LIEBERMAN. 46 4.5. ENDORSEMENT FROM OTHER KEY INTERESTS. 48 4.6. GENERAL ENDORSEMENT. 49 4.7. ENDORSEMENT FROM REVEREND JOHN HAGEE. 50 4.8. CHAPTER CONCLUSION. 51 5.0. DISTANCING FROM BUSH ADMINISTRATION. 53 3 5.1. THE NEED TO CREATE DISTANCE. 54 5.2. INSURGENCY AS THE BEST STRATEGY. 55 5.3. SENATOR MCCAIN ON FOREIGN POLICY. 58 5.4. SENATOR MCCAIN ON IRAQ WAR. 60 5.5. APPEAL TO ANTIWAR VOTERS IN GOP. 62 5.6. CHAPTER CONCLUSION. 63 6.0 POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURE. 64 6.1. NEOCONSERVATIVE PHILOSOPHY AND IDEALS. 65 6.2. PRESIDENT BUSH’ NEOCONSERVATIVE IDEALS? 66 6.3. SENATOR MCCAIN’S NEOCONSERVATIVE IDEALS. 67 6.4. SUMMARY. 69 6.5. NEW HAMPSHIRE. 70 6.6. CHAPTER CONCLUSION. 72 7.0. CONCLUSION. 74 8.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY. 77 4 1.0. Introduction. The 2008 Republican Presidential Primaries presented a new era in elections. The incumbent Vice-President, Dick Cheney, did not wish to run for Presidency, as is usually the case. This meant that the floor for a Republican candidate was completely open and already in the end of 2006, it shaped up to be an early frontrunner in the mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani. Mayor Giuliani was previously acclaimed in his leadership status post the terrorist attacks on World Trade Center on September 11th, 2001 as was subsequently seen as an American hero. On the other hand Senator John McCain from Arizona also proved to be a frontrunner, with approval rates just below mayor Giuliani in late 2006 (Jones, 2007, Gallup). Senator McCain was known as a maverick in politics where bipartisan cooperation across the political aisle and political viewpoints which more often than not, seemed to go against the established Republican views. However in early 2007 Senator McCain’s approval rates started to decrease throughout the year 2007 where it reached a low point of 14 percent in December 2007 (White House 2008: Republican Nomination). However less than a month later on January 10, 2008, Senator McCain’s approval rate had surged to 33 per cent. The increase continued steadily until March 2008 where he had secured enough delegates to be able to call himself the Republican Presidential Nominee (Glaister (2008). Within the observant reader, these series of events raise numerous questions, namely how was Senator McCain able to increase his approval rate to the double from December 2007 to January 2008? And how was it possible for Senator McCain to make this strong a comeback as a candidate? 5 1.1. Research Question. Based on these events the research question is as follows: Why did John McCain win the Republican Nomination in 2008? 1.2. Methodology and Delimitation. The purpose of this thesis is to research why Senator McCain won the Republican Nomination in 2008. For this reason, the focus of this thesis will be distributed as follows; Chapter 2 will only focus on three other candidates, namely Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani. This writer is aware that there were more candidates in the initial election, but has chosen to focus only on these three candidates, as they presented the highest poll numbers according to White House 2008: Republican Nomination. Chapter 3 will focus on the political identity of Senator John McCain, and will in the argumentation present two instances where the senator worked across the political aisle on bipartisan collaboration. This chapter will also introduce the framework of Pavlov’s dog as a means of arguing conditioned learning based on repetition and put this in perspective of Senator McCain. This chapter will not take into consideration Senator McCain’s voting record as the argumentation of this thesis rests on the perceived image of Senator McCain and not necessarily the real image. Chapter 4 will introduce the framework of the transfer-meaning model as a theory of explaining the symbolic value of an endorsement. This chapter will hereafter apply the transfer-meaning model on Senator McCain, as a way of demonstrating how the theory affects the senator. This chapter will not go into depth on every endorsement senator McCain received, but will focus on the ones who added to his ethos, in order to substantiate the argumentation for this chapter. Chapter 5 will argue why it was necessary to establish a distance to the Bush administration, and how Senator McCain created this distance. This chapter will not take into consideration the similarities between Senator McCain and the Bush administration, 6 as this is considered beyond the scope. Chapter 6 will introduce neo-conservatism, and argue why this ideology presented an opportunity for Senator McCain to reposition the issue of war to his benefit. Lastly, this chapter will use the framework of political opportunity structure, as a means of arguing the momentum senator McCain gained in New Hampshire. Many of the limitations of this thesis have been discussed in the previous section and will be summarized in this section. The scope of this thesis is the Republican Primaries in 2008 and Senator McCain. For this reason, the Democratic Primaries of 2008 will not be taken into consideration. This writer is aware, that there is an aspect of reaction in politics and acknowledges the fact that some of Senator McCain’s actions may have been reactions towards Democratic candidates. However due to the scope of this thesis, this will not be taken into consideration. The possibility of a reaction aspect is not deemed high in importance as it, in this point in time, comes second to winning the nomination.