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Migration and Housing Markets – Evidence from Sweden

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Migration and Housing Markets – Evidence from Sweden Migration and Housing Markets – Evidence from Sweden Adam Alexander Tyrcha Robinson College Date of submission: January 2020 Department of Land Economy University of Cambridge This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. 1 This thesis is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my thesis has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It does not exceed the prescribed word limit for the relevant Degree Committee. 2 Abstract Migration and Housing Markets – Evidence from Sweden Adam Alexander Tyrcha International migration flows to Sweden have been significant in scale over the past few decades, but the nature of the flows has changed in recent years. Strong migration flows have occurred from a number of different regions, with arrivals ranging from refugees from other continents, to labour migrants from neighbouring countries. The aim of this PhD thesis is to examine the impact of these migration flows, as well as internal migration, on the housing market. The thesis examines the impact of different forms of migration on the different segments of the housing market that exist in Sweden, looking at the impacts on house prices and rents, as well as the impacts on the housing market in other contexts, using a number of unique methods and avenues that have not been previously explored in this context. The PhD thesis first introduces a conceptual framework, together with a comprehensive literature review of trends pertaining to the relationship between migration and housing in an international and national context. This is followed by a presentation of the context of the relationship between migration and housing in Sweden, which includes introducing the three primary housing markets - the owner-occupier market, the rental market, and the private housing cooperative market - as well as the roles played by refugee resettlement policy, and migration policy more generally. The remainder of the thesis comprises the main analytical sections, where both quantitative and qualitative topics are covered, all pertaining to the impact of migration on housing markets in Sweden, looking at house prices, rents and beyond. In terms of the empirical approach, an innovative approach is taken, with the inclusion of internal migration as an explanatory variable in the analysis. Further innovations include an analysis into how the impacts of migration on house prices and rents differ depending on the urbanisation characteristics of receiving regions, as well as a study of the impacts of foreign-born migrants by their region of origin. Beyond this, the thesis includes an analysis of how conceptually different markets function in relation to one another, as well as a study of housing availability, and a comparative analysis of other Nordic markets and submarkets. A qualitative analysis with key stakeholders, presented in the final 3 substantive chapter, enables a broader range of perspectives to be explored with regard to migration and housing, as well as providing the foundations for a discussion on future policy. The analysis shows that, broadly speaking, both foreign-born and internal migrants have significant impacts on the housing market, through an increase in house prices and a reduction in housing availability. Further, the urban characteristics of a municipality, as well as the origin of migrants, are found to strongly influence the degree of impact of migration flows. Foreign-born labour migrants are generally found to impact major cities the most, while internal migrants are found to impact small urban areas , and refugees impact rural areas. The findings suggest that it is important to move away from an exclusive focus on foreign-based migration. The qualitative dimension of analysis also highlights several other divergences, and a clear disconnect between policymakers and other stakeholders, such as real estate developers. 4 “A room is still a room, even when there’s nothing there but gloom But a room is not a house, and a house is not a home.” Luther Vandross 5 Acknowledgements First and foremost I would like to express my immense gratitude to my primary supervisor, Dr. Maria Abreu, for all the assistance and advice she provided throughout the entire PhD process. Despite having a million other things on your plate, you always made me feel like I was your priority. You’re a superstar Maria, thank you so much for everything! I would also like to thank my secondary supervisor, Dr. Thies Lindenthal, for the help and support provided throughout the PhD process. Your feedback helped bring my PhD to its finished state, for which I am very grateful. A massive thank you to the Economic and Social Research Council for funding my PhD. I am extremely grateful for you and what you do, and hope you keep funding work which aims to inspire and make a difference in the future (and I hope my PhD can achieve this too!). A great many thanks also to the 54 people who agreed to be interviewed in association with this PhD (named later). Your input has helped to make the PhD the work it is today. A huge thanks also to SCB, Migrationsverket, USK, Valueguard, Bostadsförmedlingen, Booli Pro, DST, Mäklarstatistik, Migri, SKL, SMHI, SSB, Tilastokeskus, and many others for giving me access to statistics. I also want to express my gratitude to my first year registration assessment assessors, Dr. Helen Bao and Dr. Dimitra Kavarnou. Your invaluable comments helped bring my PhD to its current state. Similar thanks go out to my seventh term assessment assessors, Professor Colin Lizieri and Dr. Johan Larsson, for the comments and feedback. I would also like to thank Professor Jacques Poot, Dr. Özge Öner, Dr. Martin Andersson, Dr. Roger Andersson, Dr. Bo Malmberg, Dr. Ryszard Szulkin, Dr. Franz Fuerst and many others for the comments at various conferences or other events. Thanks also to Dr. Elisabete Silva, for the support and guidance, and for picking me out of the pool and into Robinson College, where my Cambridge journey started a long time ago. Thanks also to the many great academics at the Department of Land Economy and 6 University of Cambridge that have not yet been named, as well as the academics at the University of Reading. I would also like to thank my school, Stockholm International School, at which I studied for the MYP and IB, and particularly would like to thank Joshua Arsenio, Christine Öman (formerly Zwickert), Malene Schmidt, Paul Boswell, Richard Hogan, Ellen Larsson, Lisa Andersson, Carol Wegdell and many more for inspiring me to pursue an academic career. I’d also like to thank the teachers at the British International Primary School, from back in the day, for helping me learn and become who I am today. Thanks also to everyone at (or formerly at) Newsec, and particularly to Alexandra Lövgren, Ulrika Lindmark and Anders Elvinsson for giving me the opportunity to work with you on an internship during my PhD, and Konstantina Stamati at Cambridge for helping to arrange it. A special thanks to my Newsec co-workers and many others for helping me feel very welcome. I look forward to having a lot more to do with you in future! I would like to thank my doctor and soon-to-be doctor friends at Cambridge and beyond, for being in this with me together and providing support throughout the PhD process. Shrish, Patrick, Vasya, Nicolas, Richmond, Shruti, Iva, Lydia, Sophia, Ida, David, and many many others, it was inspiring to be in this together with you all. I’d also like to thank my non-PhD friends – Albert, Alex, Andy, Anna, Bryn, Dennis, Erik- Axel, Frida, Jaad, Julita, Malkom, Marc, Marcus, Matt, Oliver, Peter, Shir, Valerie, and many many more, for being there for me through thick and thin. Special thanks also to the friends I once had but have since lost touch with. I still think of you sometimes, and appreciate everything we experienced together. I would like to thank my girlfriend Michelle, my parents, Joanna and Donald, and my granddad, Zbigniew, for all the support throughout the PhD process. Thanks also to my deceased grandparents, Barbara, Jadwiga, and Ryszard, for inspiring me and helping me to believe in myself. 7 Lastly, I’d like to thank the cold Swedish winters and the breath-taking Swedish summers for making me who I am today. It’s been a great 7 years in the UK, with many memories that I will cherish forever, and the hospitality and acceptance that I was met with in the UK is not something I will ever forget. Even despite the consistently rainy summers and disappointing lack of snow in winter. But the time has come for me to Brexit on my own terms, and I’m excited to return home, to see what the next challenge brings. 8 Table of Contents List of Figures 10 List of Tables 11 List of Appendices 13 1. Introduction 16 2. Background 22 2.1 Conceptual Framework 22 2.2 Literature Review 32 2.3 Gaps in the Literature 49 3. The Swedish and Nordic Context 51 3.1 The Swedish Rental Market 52 3.2 Private Housing Cooperatives 57 3.3 Migration Policy 60 3.4 Context and Descriptive Statistics 67 3.5 Comparisons to Nordic Countries 76 3.6 Conceptual Framework for the Swedish Context 80 4.
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