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Localisations of Logistics Centres in Greater Stockholm

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Localisations of Logistics Centres in Greater Stockholm Department of Real Estate and Construction Management Thesis no. 182 Real Estate Economics and Financial Services Master of Science, 30 credits Real Estate Economics MSs Localisations of Logistics Centres in Greater Stockholm Author: Supervisor: Gunnar Larsson Stockholm 2012 Hans Lind Master of Science thesis Title: Localisations of Logistics Centres in Greater Stockholm Author: Gunnar Larsson Department Department of Real Estate and Construction Management Master Thesis number 182 Supervisor Hans Lind Keywords Logistics, Stockholm, location, localisation factors, warehouse, terminal, logistics centres, logistics parks, future, scenario. Abstract This study examines how and on what basis logistics centres are located in Greater Stockholm. Its purpose is to formulate a possible future scenario regarding localisations of logistics centres in Greater Stockholm in 10-15 years. Goods transports, distribution, property characteristics, market trends, investment decisions, localisation factors, potential challenges, public plans, transport infrastructure and logistics locations have been investigated in order to form a conclusion. There is a wide range of previous research on most fields mentioned above. Yet there is a gap regarding a picture of them from a market perspective applied to Stockholm’s future. The research method is qualitative, involving 31 interviews (34 respondents) representing logistics companies, goods holders, property developers, investors, consultants and municipalities; as they are making the decisions of tomorrow, i.e. “choose” the locations. The qualitative approach has been complemented with descriptions of infrastructure, regional plans and reports in order to consolidate and complement facts and opinions from the interviews. Together they provide the basis for a final analysis and discussion followed by a possible future scenario of Greater Stockholm’s major logistics locations. Stockholm’s population and purchase power is increasing; there is a housing shortage which is forecasted to worsen, environmental regulations get stricter, financing for logistics developments is getting harder, competition increases among logistics companies and the transport infrastructure in Stockholm is facing major changes. The strongest effects these parameters have had on logistics property market is that space consuming businesses move to the outskirts as they cannot find economy in being centrally located. The trend of space consuming activities leaving the city centres in favour of e.g. residential, office and retail use seem to continue. There is an increased interest from investors and operators for logistics in Greater Stockholm. Many central locations are left in order to find modern (more efficient) outskirt located (cheaper) premises. The major logistics centres in 10-15 years seem to be “Stockholm Nord” (Rosersberg/Arlanda) in the north “Stockholm Syd” (Södertälje/Nykvarn) in the south. Upplands-Bro and Jordbro will be important. Lunda/Järfälla, Västberga/Årsta together with minor areas in Botkyrka and Huddinge will mainly be options for smaller terminals or cross- docking units, as the land will be too expensive for businesses requiring large spaces. 2 Examensarbete Titel: Lokalisering av logistikcentrum i Storstockholm Författare Gunnar Larsson Institution Institutionen för Fastigheter och Byggande Examensarbete nummer 182 Handledare Hans Lind Nyckelord Logistik, Stockholm, läge, lokaliseringsfaktor, lager, terminal, logistikcenter, framtid, scenario. Sammanfattning Denna studie undersöker hur och på vilka grunder logistikcenter är lokaliserade i Storstockholm. Syftet är att formulera ett möjligt framtidsscenario rörande lokaliseringen av logistikcenter i Storstockholm om 10-15 år. Godstransporter, distribution, fastighetsegenskaper, marknadstrender, investeringsbeslut, lokaliseringsfaktorer, potentiella utmaningar, offentliga planer, transportinfrastruktur och logistiklägen blivit undersökta för att forma en slutsats. En rad tidigare forskning har gjorts på de flesta områdena nämnda ovan, dock inte utifrån ett marknadsperspektiv fokuserat på Storstockholms framtid. Arbetet är baserat på en kvalitativ undersökningsmetod innefattande 31 intervjuer (34 respondenter) med representanter från logistikföretag, varuhållare, projektutvecklare, investerare, konsulter och kommuner; eftersom de fattar morgondagens beslut, d.v.s. bestämmer lokaliseringarna. Den kvalitativa undersökningsmetoden kompletteras med förklaringar av infrastruktur, regionala planer och rapporter i syfte att konsolidera och komplettera fakta och åsikter från intervjuerna. Tillsammans utgör dessa basen för slutanalysen och diskussionen, följt av ett möjligt framtidsscenario rörande Storstockolms viktigaste logistiklägen. Stockholms befolkning och köpkraft växer; bostadsbrist råder vilken är prognostiserad att förvärras, miljökrav skärps, finansiering av logistikfastigheter har blivit svårare, konkurrensen ökar i logistikbranschen och transportinfrastrukturen står inför stora förändringar. De starkaste effekterna av dessa parametrar har haft på logistikfastighetsmarknaden är att ytkrävande verksamheter flyttar till utkanterna av Storstockholm, då de inte får ekonomi i att vara kvar/flytta till lägen närmre city. Trenden att ytkrävande aktiviteter lämnar stadskärnan till förmån till bostäder, kontor och handel; ser ut att hålla i sig. Ett ökat intresse från både investerare och operatörer av särskilt större logistikfastigheter (10 000 kvm+) tillsammans med att centralare logistiklägen lämnas för att hitta moderna (effektivare) mindre centrala (billigare) lokaler; gör att nuvarande logistikmarknaden är karaktäriserad av nybyggnation. De stora logistikcentren om 10-15 år ser ut att mest handla om ”Stockholm Nord” i norra Stockholm och ”Stockholm Syd” i södra Stockholm. Upplands-Bro och Jordbro kommer vara viktiga. Lunda/Järfälla, Västberga/Årsta och vissa mindre områden i Botkyrka och Huddinge kommer vara åtråvärda, men generellt för dyra för ytkrävande aktiviteter och därmed främst alternativ för mindre omlastningslokaler. 3 Acknowledgement This Master thesis is submitted as a final part of my Building and Real Estate Economics MSc degree at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm. The Master thesis was also carried out on behalf of the real estate consultancy firm CBRE in Stockholm. This study was made possible thanks to: My KTH supervisor, Hans Lind – Professor of Real Estate Economics at the Royal Institute of Technology. Hans was specifically helpful in critical discussions and formulating an effective structure. My CBRE supervisor Magnus Hammar - Senior Director and Head of Retail & Logistics Advisory at CBRE Stockholm. Magnus motivated the initial idea of the research and provided feedback from a market perspective. The 35 interview respondents Thank you all for helping me carry out this research and making it an enjoyable and educative experience. Stockholm, 5 June 2012 Gunnar Larsson 4 1. INTRODUCTION 8 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Purpose of the study & research questions ......................................................................................... 8 1.3 Outline ................................................................................................................................................ 9 1.4 Limitations ........................................................................................................................................ 10 2 METHODOLOGY 12 2.1 How is the problem studied? ............................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Interview questions........................................................................................................................... 13 3 LOGISTICS IN SWEDEN 14 3.1 The term “logistik” (logistics) in Sweden from the 60’s to today ....................................................... 14 3.2 Major changes from 10 years ago to today ....................................................................................... 14 3.3 General trends in freight and distribution ......................................................................................... 16 3.4 Third party logistics (3PL) .................................................................................................................. 19 3.5 City logistics ...................................................................................................................................... 21 3.6 Planning horizons .............................................................................................................................. 24 4 NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND MUNICIPALITY MAPS, PLANS AND REPORTS 25 4.1 Top logistics locations in Sweden ...................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Greater Stockholm ............................................................................................................................ 27 4.3 Regional Development Plan for the Stockholm Region (RUFS 2010) .................................................. 30 4.4 Rapport 3: 2008, Näringsliv, logistik och terminaler i Stockholms län, ............................................... 33 4.5 Stockholm municipality’s overview plan ........................................................................................... 34 4.6 Further comments
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