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Arizona's Water Future

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Arizona’s Water Future: Challenges and Opportunities 85th Arizona Town Hall October 31 – November 3, 2004 Grand Canyon, Arizona Sponsors GILA RIVER INDIAN COMMUNITY SALT RIVER PROJECT BACKGROUND REPORT PREPARED BY The University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona Draft of 10/06/04 EIGHTY-FIFTH ARIZONA TOWN HALL OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 3, 2004 Arizona’s Water Future: Challenges and Opportunities Background Report Prepared By The University of Arizona Peter Likins, President Office of Economic Development AND Water Resources Research Center Authors Bonnie G. Colby Sharon B. Megdal David A. de Kok Katherine L. Jacobs Gary Woodard Marshall A. Worden Rita Maguire Sponsors GILA RIVER INDIAN COMMUNITY SALT RIVER PROJECT Arizona Town Hall Research Committee Darryl B, Dobras, Chairman Warren L. Prostrollo, Vice Chairman Timothy J. Barnett Patrick Graham Paul R. Orme Michael J. Brophy Herb Guenther James L. Parsons Catherine Connolly James Holway Fred H. Rosenfeld Herb Dishlip Anna Jolivet Robert B. Strain Paul F. Eckstein Rodney Lewis John F. Sullivan i Draft of 10/06/04 Cover illustrations, clockwise from upper right: Roosevelt Dam and Lake; Arizona Strip; Ari- zona Falls on Salt River Project, 56th Street and Indian School Road, Phoenix; and Lake Powell in 2000. ii Draft of 10/06/04 ARIZONA TOWN HALL Building consensus — Charting progress Leaders in all areas of our communities face ever-greater complexity in their business and personal lives. These complexities drive them to focus more intensely and to narrow their viewpoints and beliefs on the challenges and opportunities they confront. Yet, the qualities and capabilities that have propelled these individuals to leadership in their own fields of endeavor are the very qualities essential to understanding and resolving the broader issues and concerns of all Arizonans. Since 1962, the Arizona Town Hall has been bringing together leaders from across our state to carefully consider and discuss the critical challenges and opportunities facing our state. These leaders come with their varied expertise from a carefully selected cross-section of our state’s citizens. The participants at each Town Hall are geographically and occupationally balanced and represent the wide diversity of political, social and economic philosophies found in Arizona. There have been eighty-four Town Halls to date. The eighty-fifth will be held at Grand Canyon, October 31 – November 3, 2004 and will address “Arizona’s Water Future: Challenges and Opportunities.” This Town Hall will examine Arizona’s future water supply as it relates to our state’s continuing rapid population growth, ongoing drought conditions, potential settlement of Indian water claims, need for water for environmental and recreational uses, and Arizona’s institutional and financial capacity to address future water needs. To provide all participants in the Town Hall with fundamental background information from which to launch their detailed discussions, the University of Arizona developed the following background report. The research team consists of faculty and professionals from the University and ThinkAz—Arizona Center for Public Policy. Our sincere thanks are extended to University of Arizona President Peter Likins and the entire research team who worked so diligently to bring together this document. The timeline for the writing of this report was extremely short. Therefore, there was not sufficient opportunity for a detailed review by the Town Hall’s Research Committee of the material presented. Additional editing may take place between now and the time of the final publishing that also will include the recommendations developed at this Town Hall. The specifics to be addressed at this Town Hall depend upon identification by you, the participants, of the most significant subject areas you consider necessary to cover. You should have received a questionnaire included with a memo of details dated October 1. We ask that you use that questionnaire to send us your questions and ideas on what needs to be discussed regarding Arizona’s water future. The concerns that you identify need not be limited to those discussed in this document. Your replies are key to the success of the Town Hall. Please take time right now to complete and return the enclosed questionnaire. Don’t wait until you’ve read this entire report to reply. At this point, we want your personal ideas on the most important issues to be discussed. The recommendations that you develop at the Town Hall will be combined with the following background information into a final document and circulated widely throughout the state. That report will make a lasting contribution toward identifying what steps Arizona needs to take to ensure our state’s water future. Sincerely, Alan E. Maguire Chairman of the Board September 2004 iii Draft of 10/06/04 iv Draft of 10/06/04 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A seven-person research team from The University of Arizona and the Arizona Center for Public Policy prepared this report. The research team included persons from several disciplines: economics, anthropology, geog- raphy, environmental planning, public policy, law and chemistry. Different academic, research and public service units at The University of Arizona were represented on the writing team: Bonnie Colby of the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics; David de Kok of the Office of Economic Development; Kathy Jacobs of the Department of Soils, Water and Environmental Science, the Water Resources Research Center and SAHRA; Sharon Megdal of the Water Resources Research Center and the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and; Gary Woodard of the Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas in the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources; and Marshall Worden from the Office of the Associate Vice President for Economic De- velopment. In addition, the research team included Rita Maguire of the Arizona Center for Public Policy. The concept and initial outline for the report were developed in consultation with the Eighty-fifth Arizona Town Hall Research Committee. That original outline was clarified in a series of meetings involving the Research Committee, Kathy Jacobs, Sharon Megdal and Marshall Worden. An initial but incomplete draft of the report was reviewed and critiqued by the Arizona Town Hall Research Committee during August and early September 2004. The Committee, chaired by Darryl B. Dobras, comprises Shirley Agnos, ex officio, Timothy J. Barnett, Michael J. Brophy, Catherine Connolly, Herb Dishlip, Paul F. Eckstein, Chuck Essigs, Grady Gammage, Jr., Susan N. Goldsmith, Patrick Graham, Herb Guenther, James Holway, Janet Jennings, ex officio, Anna Jolivet, Rodney Lewis, Rita Maguire, Elizabeth McNamee, David Modeer, Paul R. Orme, James. L. Parsons, M.D., Warren L. Prostrollo, Jr., Vice Chairman, Fred H. Rosenfeld, Robert B. Strain, John F. Sullivan and D.S. (Sid) Wilson. The Research Committee’s thoughtful suggestions for improvement and correction were important and greatly appreciated. Preparation of this background report was funded by The University of Arizona, Technology and Research Initiative Fund (TRIF), Water Sustainability Program and by the University’s Office of Eco- nomic Development. Several persons at the University of Arizona deserve thanks for their strong efforts in bringing the final report to completion. In the Office of Economic Development, Kathleen Gardner prepared the tables and text for the final manuscript, Linda Francis assisted in coordinating the technical, repro- duction and administrative details of the project and Lourdes Gonzalez and her staff handled the mailing and distribution of the report. Kyle Carpenter in the Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas assisted in preparing the maps found throughout the report. Ken Seasholes of the Arizona Department of Water Resources assisted in the design of the maps and reviewed significant portions of the report. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the Salt River Project and the v Draft of 10/06/04 Central Arizona Project provided various data, graphics and photographs. Finally, the kindness and patient direction from Shirley Agnos, President of the Arizona Town Hall, needs to be recognized. She was a strong source of encouragement throughout the preparation of the report and, once again, has made the Arizona Town Hall a valued experience. Marshall A. Worden Office of Economic Development The University of Arizona vi Draft of 10/06/04 CONTENTS Letter from Town Hall Board Chairman iii Acknowledgments v Contents vii List of Figures ix List of Tables x Initialisms, Acronyms and Abbreviations xi Chapter 1—Challenges Met and Remaining Kathy Jacobs and Marshall A. Worden 1 Historical and Institutional Perspective 2 Achievements and Costs to Date 7 Sustainability 10 Chapter 2—Major Themes in Arizona’s Water Future Kathy Jacobs and Marshall A. Worden 13 Difficult Choices and Hard Decisions 19 Chapter 3—Arizona’s Hydrology, Population and Border with Mexico David A. de Kok 21 Physiography and Hydrology 23 Population Growth 30 Forecasting Population Growth 32 Population Growth and Water Use 34 Sharing Water Along the Border with Mexico 38 Chapter 4—Climate, Drought and Water Supply Kathy Jacobs 47 Current Drought Conditions 47 Climate “Drivers” 49 Policy Implications of Global Warming for 52 Water Supply Planning 52 Drought Planning and Adaptation Options in Arizona 54 Drought Task Force 54 Approach and Objectives of the Drought Plan 55 Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan 57 Chapter
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