Increasing Agricultural and Ecosystem Resilience Through Ecosystem- Based Adaptation Agroforestry
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Increasing Agricultural and Ecosystem Resilience through Ecosystem- based Adaptation Agroforestry | Burundi, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) 4 April 2017 Increasing Agricultural and Ecosystem Resilience through Project/Programme Title: Ecosystem-based Adaptation Agroforestry Country/Region: Sub-Saharan Africa Accredited Entity: UN Environment Burundi, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, National Designated Authority: Zambia and Zimbabwe PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 1 OF 5 Please submit the completed form to [email protected] A. Project / Programme Information Increasing Agricultural and Ecosystem Resilience through Ecosystem-based A.1. Project / programme title Adaptation Agroforestry A.2. Project or programme Project A.3. Country (ies) / region Burundi, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe Ministry to the presidency in charge of planning and good governance, Burundi; Ministry of Energy, Meteorology, and Water Affairs, Lesotho; Environmental Affairs Department, Malawi; Ministry of Tourism and Environment Affairs, Swaziland; A.4. National designated The Vice President’s Office, Tanzania; authority(ies) Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Uganda; National Planning Department, Zambia; and Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate Change, Zimbabwe. *For names and titles of NDAs please see Annex 1. A.5. Accredited entity UN Environment A.6. Executing entity / Executing Entity: World Agroforestry Center, World Vision, CRS, CARE beneficiary Beneficiary: 1,125,000 small-scale farm families A.7. Access modality Direct ☐ International ☒ A.8. Project size category (total investment, million Micro (≤10) ☐ Small (10<x≤50) ☒ Medium (50<x≤250) ☐ Large (>250) ☐ USD) A.9. Mitigation / adaptation Mitigation ☐ Adaptation ☐ Cross-cutting ☒ focus A.10. Public or private public Which of the following targeted results areas does the proposed project/programme address? Reduced emissions from: ☐ Energy access and power generation (E.g. on-grid, micro-grid or off-grid solar, wind, geothermal, etc.) A.11. Results areas ☐ Low emission transport (mark all that apply) (E.g. high-speed rail, rapid bus system, etc.) ☐ Buildings, cities, industries and appliances (E.g. new and retrofitted energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient equipment for companies and supply chain management, etc.) ☒ Forestry and land use (E.g. forest conservation and management, agroforestry, agricultural irrigation, water treatment and management, etc.) 1 CN-UNEP-201704-UNEPCN0002 PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 2 OF 5 Increased resilience of: ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities (E.g. mitigation of operational risk associated with climate change – diversification of supply sources and supply chain management, relocation of manufacturing facilities and warehouses, etc.) ☒ Health and well-being, and food and water security (E.g. climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation systems, etc.) ☐ Infrastructure and built environment (E.g. sea walls, resilient road networks, etc.) ☒ Ecosystems and ecosystem services (E.g. ecosystem conservation and management, ecotourism, etc.) A.12. Project / programme life 5 years span A.13. Estimated Start:1 Jan 2018 implementation start and end date End: 31 December 2023 B. Project/Programme Details The Fund requires the following preliminary information in order to promptly assess the eligibility of project/programme investment. These requirements may vary depending on the nature of the project/programme. Problem Description Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change (IPCC, 2014). Approximately 62% of the population of SSA is employed in agriculture (IFAD, 2011), and in 2014 it was estimated that 75% of those in rural areas were living in extreme poverty (less than 1.90$/day) (OPHI, 2014). Rain-fed agricultural systems, which account for over 95% of farmed land in SSA2, are particularly vulnerable (Serdeczny, 2015). The resilience of the small-scale subsistence farmers is directly tied to the health and resilience of the land they cultivate. Small- scale farmers manage over 80% of the land in SSA, and they provide 80% of the food supply (FAO, 2012). Sub-Saharan Africa faces massive impacts from climate change particularly with regards to agricultural production. Climate change projections for this region point to a B.1. Project / programme warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme description (including heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall—with a particularly pronounced objectives) decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa’s already high rates of under-nutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. Particularly vulnerable to these climatic changes are the rain-fed agricultural systems on which the livelihoods of a large proportion of the region’s population currently depend. As agricultural livelihoods become more precarious, the rate of rural–urban migration may be expected to grow, adding to the already significant urbanization trend in the region. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa In the low-emission scenario RCP2.6 (representing a 2 °C world), African summer temperatures increase until 2050 at about 1.5 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline and remain at this level until the end of the century. In the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 (representing a 4 °C world), warming continues until the end of the century, with monthly summer temperatures over Sub-Saharan Africa reaching 5 °C above the 1951– 1980 baseline by 2100. 2 http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/issues/rainfed-agriculture/summary/ PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 3 OF 5 In southwestern Africa, the shift toward more arid conditions due to a decline in rainfall (Fig. 2) is exacerbated by temperature-driven increases in evapotranspiration (see Figure SOM 3). By contrast, the higher aridity index in East Africa is correlated with higher rainfall projected by global climate models, which, however, is uncertain and not reproduced by higher-resolution regional climate models. While High rainfall savannas can be replaced by forests in less than 20–30 years (Bond and Parr 2010). In many parts of rural Sub-Saharan Africa, groundwater is the sole source of safe drinking water (MacDonald et al. 2009). Most of Sub-Saharan Africa has generally low permeability and minor aquifers, with some larger aquifer systems located only in the Congo, parts of Angola and southern Nigeria (MacDonald et al. 2012). Groundwater recharge rates have been projected to decline by 30–70 % in the western parts of southern Africa and to increase by around 30 % in some parts of East and southeastern Africa for both 2 and 3 °C warming above pre-industrial levels (Do ̈ll 2009). Agricultural Impacts The IPCC states with high levels of confidence that the overall effect of climate change on yields of major cereal crops in the African region is very likely to be negative, with strong regional variation (Niang et al. 2014). ‘‘Worst-case’’ projections (5th percentile) indicate losses of 27–32 % for maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut for a warming of about 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Using output from 14 CMIP3 GCMs and applying the crop model DSSAT, Thornton et al. (2011) estimate mean yield losses of 24% for maize and 71% for beans under warming exceeding 4 °C. Over the past 30 years, climate change has reduced food production between 1-5% per decade across the globe. Maize, which is one of the most common crops in Sub-Saharan Africa, has been found to have a particularly high sensitivity to temperatures above 30 °C within the growing season. Geographically, the majority (~90 %) of currently cropped maize area is projected to experience negative impacts. Crop yield losses in these areas are mostly mediated through shortened cropping seasons and heat stress during the crop’s reproductive period (Thornton et al., 2009; Cairns et al., 2012). These projections are robust, thus suggesting that adaptation of maize production should be a priority for many African countries. Rosenzweig et al. (2014) find maize yield decreases of additional 10–20 % in other Sub-Saharan regions if nitrogen stress is considered. Not considering nitrogen stress results in higher model disagreement but still an overall negative trend of 5 to 50 %. Cassava appears to be more resistant to high temperatures and unstable precipitation than cereal crops (Niang et al. 2014). Similarly, multiple-cropping systems appear to reduce the risk of crop failure compared to single-cropping systems (Waha et al. 2012). Each day in a growing season spent at temperature above 30 °C reduces maize yields by 1% compared to optimal, drought-free rainfed conditions (Lobell et al. 2011). The annual average temperature across Sub-Saharan Africa is already above the optimal temperature for wheat during the growing season (Liu et al. 2008), and it is expected to increase further. The sharp declines in crop yields that have been observed beyond certain thresholds are mostly not included in present process-based agricultural models (Ro ̈tter et al. 2011). Moreover, climate extremes can alter the ecology of plant pathogens, and higher soil temperatures can promote fungal growth that kills seedlings (Patz et al. 2008).