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AN ANALYSIS of the TURKISH DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM UNDER STRESS University O SOCIO-TECHNICAL APPROACHES TO COMPLEX PHENOMENA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM UNDER STRESS by Suleyman Celik B.S., Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey 1996 MPM, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 2000 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This thesis was presented by Suleyman Celik It was defended on June 13, 2006 and approved by Dr. Kevin Kearns, Ph.D., Graduate School of Public and International Affairs Dr. Siddharth Chandra, Ph.D., Graduate School of Public and International Affairs Dr. Toni Carbo, Ph.D., School of Information Sciences Thesis Director: Dr. Louise K. Comfort, Ph.D. ii Copyright © by Suleyman Celik 2006 iii SOCIO-TECHNICAL APPROACHES TO COMPLEX PHENOMENA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM UNDER STRESS Suleyman Celik, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2006 This research analyzes and assesses the major issues regarding coordinated response operations in destructive earthquakes. The research examines the decision making process in the context of seismic risk to exemplify how public managers can utilize the information and communication systems in order to create collaborative actions in managing an extreme event. Based on the theoretical framework from Complex Adaptive Systems and Socio- technical Systems, this study is an exploratory case study that explores the factors that hinder or facilitate coordinated response operations. This research applies the theoretical framework to the two earthquake response systems, the Marmara and Duzce that occurred in Turkey in August and November of 1999, respectively. This study investigated initial conditions of existing information infrastructure during the 1999 Marmara and Duzce response operations and compared the two response systems to discover whether the utilization of information and communication technologies significantly affected the performance of the Turkish disaster system. The findings of the study revealed that improving communication functions increased coordination activities thus eventually improved search and rescue operations from the Marmara to the Duzce earthquake. This research conducts qualitative, quantitative and network analysis using data from content analysis of a national newspapers, Cumhuriyet, semi-structured interviews, archival records, professional reports, and official websites of disaster organizations. By using the data, the research also focuses on the period of review and redesign of emergency management policies and practices following the Marmara and Duzce earthquakes. It analyzes the changes introduced into the information infrastructure and organizational structure to evaluate to what extent the Turkish disaster management system possesses the characteristics of a socio-technical disaster system. Although the findings of the analyses showed that the initiations after the Marmara and Duzce earthquake, to some extent, improved the technical and organizational capacity of the Turkish disaster management system, the system still needs to be improved particularly at the local level to cope with a future destructive earthquake. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................... 14 LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................................... 18 PREFACE.................................................................................................................................... 19 1.0 INFORMATION PROCESSES IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT........................ 1 1.1 MANAGING RISK IN EXTREME EVENTS.................................................. 1 1.2 SEISMIC RISK IN TURKEY ............................................................................ 4 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS................................................................................. 7 1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES............................................................................... 9 1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ................................................................... 9 1.6 PRESENTATION OF THE STUDY ............................................................... 11 2.0 TOWARD SOCIO-TECHNICAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS.... 12 2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 12 2.2 DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN TRANSITION .......................................... 12 2.2.1 Shift from Disaster Response to Disaster Mitigation............................... 13 2.2.2 Local Government ...................................................................................... 15 2.3 COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS ............................................................... 16 2.3.1 Complexity and Nonlinearity..................................................................... 16 v 2.3.2 Complexity and Uncertainty...................................................................... 17 2.3.3 Complex Adaptive Systems........................................................................ 19 2.3.4 CAS and Disaster Management................................................................. 21 2.4 SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AND SELF ORGANIZATION ............. 22 2.4.1 Technology and Organizations .................................................................. 22 2.4.2 IT and Socio-technical Systems ................................................................. 23 2.4.3 Organizational Culture and Socio-technical Systems ............................. 26 2.4.4 Socio-technical Systems and Disaster Management ................................ 26 2.5 CONCEPTUAL MODEL ................................................................................. 28 2.6 SUMMARY........................................................................................................ 29 3.0 AN EXPLORATORY CASE STUDY: CONCEPTS AND METHODS .............. 31 3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 31 3.2 RESEARCH METHOD.................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 An Exploratory Case Study ....................................................................... 31 3.2.2 Validity and Reliability............................................................................... 32 3.2.3 Selection of Cases ........................................................................................ 33 3.2.4 Unit of Analysis and Unit of Observations ............................................... 34 3.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS, OBJECTIVES, NEEDED INFORMATION, AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION ............................................................................ 35 3.3.1 Research Questions and Objectives .......................................................... 35 3.4 DATA COLLECTION...................................................................................... 36 3.4.1 Primary Data Sources................................................................................. 36 3.4.2 Data Collection Process .............................................................................. 37 vi 3.4.3 Needed Information and Sources of Information.................................... 38 3.5 SAMPLING DESIGN AND INTERVIEWS................................................... 39 3.5.1 Sampling Design for Interviews................................................................. 39 3.5.2 Conducting the Interviews ......................................................................... 40 3.6 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION.............................................. 44 3.6.1 Descriptive Analysis.................................................................................... 44 3.6.2 Statistical Analysis ...................................................................................... 45 3.6.2.1 Paired t-test ......................................................................................... 45 3.6.2.2 Two Population Proportions Test ..................................................... 45 3.6.3 Network Analysis ........................................................................................ 46 3.6.4 Quantitative Methods ................................................................................. 48 3.7 SUMMARY........................................................................................................ 49 4.0 TURKISH DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICIES AND STRUCTURE........ 50 4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 50 4.2 TURKISH DISASTER POLICIES.................................................................. 51 4.2.1 The Disaster Law of 7269........................................................................... 51 4.2.2 The Evolution of the Turkish Disaster System ........................................ 53 4.2.3 The Development Laws and Disaster Affairs........................................... 55 4.3 TURKISH DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE............................. 57 4.3.1 Turkish Disaster Management at Local Level ......................................... 58 4.3.2 Turkish
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