Phase and Frequency Estimation: High-Accuracy and Low-Complexity Techniques
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Probability Based Estimation Theory for Respondent Driven Sampling
Journal of Official Statistics, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2008, pp. 79–97 Probability Based Estimation Theory for Respondent Driven Sampling Erik Volz1 and Douglas D. Heckathorn2 Many populations of interest present special challenges for traditional survey methodology when it is difficult or impossible to obtain a traditional sampling frame. In the case of such “hidden” populations at risk of HIV/AIDS, many researchers have resorted to chain-referral sampling. Recent progress on the theory of chain-referral sampling has led to Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a rigorous chain-referral method which allows unbiased estimation of the target population. In this article we present new probability-theoretic methods for making estimates from RDS data. The new estimators offer improved simplicity, analytical tractability, and allow the estimation of continuous variables. An analytical variance estimator is proposed in the case of estimating categorical variables. The properties of the estimator and the associated variance estimator are explored in a simulation study, and compared to alternative RDS estimators using data from a study of New York City jazz musicians. The new estimator gives results consistent with alternative RDS estimators in the study of jazz musicians, and demonstrates greater precision than alternative estimators in the simulation study. Key words: Respondent driven sampling; chain-referral sampling; Hansen–Hurwitz; MCMC. 1. Introduction Chain-referral sampling has emerged as a powerful method for sampling hard-to-reach or hidden populations. Such sampling methods are favored for such populations because they do not require the specification of a sampling frame. The lack of a sampling frame means that the survey data from a chain-referral sample is contingent on a number of factors outside the researcher’s control such as the social network on which recruitment takes place. -
Von Mises' Frequentist Approach to Probability
Section on Statistical Education – JSM 2008 Von Mises’ Frequentist Approach to Probability Milo Schield1 and Thomas V. V. Burnham2 1 Augsburg College, Minneapolis, MN 2 Cognitive Systems, San Antonio, TX Abstract Richard Von Mises (1883-1953), the originator of the birthday problem, viewed statistics and probability theory as a science that deals with and is based on real objects rather than as a branch of mathematics that simply postulates relationships from which conclusions are derived. In this context, he formulated a strict Frequentist approach to probability. This approach is limited to observations where there are sufficient reasons to project future stability – to believe that the relative frequency of the observed attributes would tend to a fixed limit if the observations were continued indefinitely by sampling from a collective. This approach is reviewed. Some suggestions are made for statistical education. 1. Richard von Mises Richard von Mises (1883-1953) may not be well-known by statistical educators even though in 1939 he first proposed a problem that is today widely-known as the birthday problem.1 There are several reasons for this lack of recognition. First, he was educated in engineering and worked in that area for his first 30 years. Second, he published primarily in German. Third, his works in statistics focused more on theoretical foundations. Finally, his inductive approach to deriving the basic operations of probability is very different from the postulate-and-derive approach normally taught in introductory statistics. See Frank (1954) and Studies in Mathematics and Mechanics (1954) for a review of von Mises’ works. This paper is based on his two English-language books on probability: Probability, Statistics and Truth (1936) and Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics (1964). -
Detection and Estimation Theory Introduction to ECE 531 Mojtaba Soltanalian- UIC the Course
Detection and Estimation Theory Introduction to ECE 531 Mojtaba Soltanalian- UIC The course Lectures are given Tuesdays and Thursdays, 2:00-3:15pm Office hours: Thursdays 3:45-5:00pm, SEO 1031 Instructor: Prof. Mojtaba Soltanalian office: SEO 1031 email: [email protected] web: http://msol.people.uic.edu/ The course Course webpage: http://msol.people.uic.edu/ECE531 Textbook(s): * Fundamentals of Statistical Signal Processing, Volume 1: Estimation Theory, by Steven M. Kay, Prentice Hall, 1993, and (possibly) * Fundamentals of Statistical Signal Processing, Volume 2: Detection Theory, by Steven M. Kay, Prentice Hall 1998, available in hard copy form at the UIC Bookstore. The course Style: /Graduate Course with Active Participation/ Introduction Let’s start with a radar example! Introduction> Radar Example QUIZ Introduction> Radar Example You can actually explain it in ten seconds! Introduction> Radar Example Applications in Transportation, Defense, Medical Imaging, Life Sciences, Weather Prediction, Tracking & Localization Introduction> Radar Example The strongest signals leaking off our planet are radar transmissions, not television or radio. The most powerful radars, such as the one mounted on the Arecibo telescope (used to study the ionosphere and map asteroids) could be detected with a similarly sized antenna at a distance of nearly 1,000 light-years. - Seth Shostak, SETI Introduction> Estimation Traditionally discussed in STATISTICS. Estimation in Signal Processing: Digital Computers ADC/DAC (Sampling) Signal/Information Processing Introduction> Estimation The primary focus is on obtaining optimal estimation algorithms that may be implemented on a digital computer. We will work on digital signals/datasets which are typically samples of a continuous-time waveform. -
Autocorrelation and Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating Measurements Based on the Third Harmonic Generation in a Gaseous Medium
Appl. Sci. 2015, 5, 136-144; doi:10.3390/app5020136 OPEN ACCESS applied sciences ISSN 2076-3417 www.mdpi.com/journal/applsci Article Autocorrelation and Frequency-Resolved Optical Gating Measurements Based on the Third Harmonic Generation in a Gaseous Medium Yoshinari Takao 1,†, Tomoko Imasaka 2,†, Yuichiro Kida 1,† and Totaro Imasaka 1,3,* 1 Department of Applied Chemistry, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University, 744, Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan; E-Mails: [email protected] (Y.T.); [email protected] (Y.K.) 2 Laboratory of Chemistry, Graduate School of Design, Kyushu University, 4-9-1, Shiobaru, Minami-ku, Fukuoka 815-8540, Japan; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Division of Optoelectronics and Photonics, Center for Future Chemistry, Kyushu University, 744, Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan † These authors contributed equally to this work. * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +81-92-802-2883; Fax: +81-92-802-2888. Academic Editor: Takayoshi Kobayashi Received: 7 April 2015 / Accepted: 3 June 2015 / Published: 9 June 2015 Abstract: A gas was utilized in producing the third harmonic emission as a nonlinear optical medium for autocorrelation and frequency-resolved optical gating measurements to evaluate the pulse width and chirp of a Ti:sapphire laser. Due to a wide frequency domain available for a gas, this approach has potential for use in measuring the pulse width in the optical (ultraviolet/visible) region beyond one octave and thus for measuring an optical pulse width less than 1 fs. -
FORMULAS from EPIDEMIOLOGY KEPT SIMPLE (3E) Chapter 3: Epidemiologic Measures
FORMULAS FROM EPIDEMIOLOGY KEPT SIMPLE (3e) Chapter 3: Epidemiologic Measures Basic epidemiologic measures used to quantify: • frequency of occurrence • the effect of an exposure • the potential impact of an intervention. Epidemiologic Measures Measures of disease Measures of Measures of potential frequency association impact (“Measures of Effect”) Incidence Prevalence Absolute measures of Relative measures of Attributable Fraction Attributable Fraction effect effect in exposed cases in the Population Incidence proportion Incidence rate Risk difference Risk Ratio (Cumulative (incidence density, (Incidence proportion (Incidence Incidence, Incidence hazard rate, person- difference) Proportion Ratio) Risk) time rate) Incidence odds Rate Difference Rate Ratio (Incidence density (Incidence density difference) ratio) Prevalence Odds Ratio Difference Macintosh HD:Users:buddygerstman:Dropbox:eks:formula_sheet.doc Page 1 of 7 3.1 Measures of Disease Frequency No. of onsets Incidence Proportion = No. at risk at beginning of follow-up • Also called risk, average risk, and cumulative incidence. • Can be measured in cohorts (closed populations) only. • Requires follow-up of individuals. No. of onsets Incidence Rate = ∑person-time • Also called incidence density and average hazard. • When disease is rare (incidence proportion < 5%), incidence rate ≈ incidence proportion. • In cohorts (closed populations), it is best to sum individual person-time longitudinally. It can also be estimated as Σperson-time ≈ (average population size) × (duration of follow-up). Actuarial adjustments may be needed when the disease outcome is not rare. • In an open populations, Σperson-time ≈ (average population size) × (duration of follow-up). Examples of incidence rates in open populations include: births Crude birth rate (per m) = × m mid-year population size deaths Crude mortality rate (per m) = × m mid-year population size deaths < 1 year of age Infant mortality rate (per m) = × m live births No. -
Fundamental Frequency Detection
Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ˇ Valentina Hubeika cernocky|ihubeika @fit.vutbr.cz { } DCGM FIT BUT Brno Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 1/37 Agenda Fundamental frequency characteristics. • Issues. • Autocorrelation method, AMDF, NFFC. • Formant impact reduction. • Long time predictor. • Cepstrum. • Improvements in fundamental frequency detection. • Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 2/37 Recap – speech production and its model Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 3/37 Introduction Fundamental frequency, pitch, is the frequency vocal cords oscillate on: F . • 0 The period of fundamental frequency, (pitch period) is T = 1 . • 0 F0 The term “lag” denotes the pitch period expressed in samples : L = T Fs, where Fs • 0 is the sampling frequency. Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 4/37 Fundamental Frequency Utilization speech synthesis – melody generation. • coding • – in simple encoding such as LPC, reduction of the bit-stream can be reached by separate transfer of the articulatory tract parameters, energy, voiced/unvoiced sound flag and pitch F0. – in more complex encoders (such as RPE-LTP or ACELP in the GSM cell phones) long time predictor LTP is used. LPT is a filter with a “long” impulse response which however contains only few non-zero components. Fundamental Frequency Detection Jan Cernock´y,ValentinaHubeika,DCGMFITBUTBrnoˇ 5/37 Fundamental Frequency Characteristics F takes the values from 50 Hz (males) to 400 Hz (children), with Fs=8000 Hz these • 0 frequencies correspond to the lags L=160 to 20 samples. It can be seen, that with low values F0 approaches the frame length (20 ms, which corresponds to 160 samples). -
Analog Transmit Signal Optimization for Undersampled Delay-Doppler
Analog Transmit Signal Optimization for Undersampled Delay-Doppler Estimation Andreas Lenz∗, Manuel S. Stein†, A. Lee Swindlehurst‡ ∗Institute for Communications Engineering, Technische Universit¨at M¨unchen, Germany †Mathematics Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium ‡Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, USA E-Mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract—In this work, the optimization of the analog transmit achievable sampling rate fs at the receiver restricts the band- waveform for joint delay-Doppler estimation under sub-Nyquist width B of the transmitter and therefore the overall system conditions is considered. Based on the Bayesian Cramer-Rao´ performance. Since the sampling rate forms a bottleneck with lower bound (BCRLB), we derive an estimation theoretic design rule for the Fourier coefficients of the analog transmit signal respect to power resources and hardware limitations [2], it when violating the sampling theorem at the receiver through a is necessary to find a trade-off between high performance wide analog pre-filtering bandwidth. For a wireless delay-Doppler and low complexity. Therefore we discuss how to design channel, we obtain a system optimization problem which can be the transmit signal for delay-Doppler estimation without the solved in compact form by using an Eigenvalue decomposition. commonly used restriction from the sampling theorem. The presented approach enables one to explore the Pareto region spanned by the optimized analog waveforms. Furthermore, we Delay-Doppler estimation has been discussed for decades demonstrate how the framework can be used to reduce the in the signal processing community [3]–[5]. In [3] a subspace sampling rate at the receiver while maintaining high estimation based algorithm for the estimation of multi-path delay-Doppler accuracy. -
10. Linear Models and Maximum Likelihood Estimation ECE 830, Spring 2017
10. Linear Models and Maximum Likelihood Estimation ECE 830, Spring 2017 Rebecca Willett 1 / 34 Primary Goal General problem statement: We observe iid yi ∼ pθ; θ 2 Θ n and the goal is to determine the θ that produced fyigi=1. Given a collection of observations y1; :::; yn and a probability model p(y1; :::; ynjθ) parameterized by the parameter θ, determine the value of θ that best matches the observations. 2 / 34 Estimation Using the Likelihood Definition: Likelihood function p(yjθ) as a function of θ with y fixed is called the \likelihood function". If the likelihood function carries the information about θ brought by the observations y = fyigi, how do we use it to obtain an estimator? Definition: Maximum Likelihood Estimation θbMLE = arg max p(yjθ) θ2Θ is the value of θ that maximizes the density at y. Intuitively, we are choosing θ to maximize the probability of occurrence for y. 3 / 34 Maximum Likelihood Estimation MLEs are a very important type of estimator for the following reasons: I MLE occurs naturally in composite hypothesis testing and signal detection (i.e., GLRT) I The MLE is often simple and easy to compute I MLEs are invariant under reparameterization I MLEs often have asymptotic optimal properties (e.g. consistency (MSE ! 0 as N ! 1) 4 / 34 Computing the MLE If the likelihood function is differentiable, then θb is found from @ log p(yjθ) = 0 @θ If multiple solutions exist, then the MLE is the solution that maximizes log p(yjθ). That is, take the global maximizer. Note: It is possible to have multiple global maximizers that are all MLEs! 5 / 34 Example: Estimating the mean and variance of a Gaussian iid 2 yi = A + νi; νi ∼ N (0; σ ); i = 1; ··· ; n θ = [A; σ2]> n @ log p(yjθ) 1 X = (y − A) @A σ2 i i=1 n @ log p(yjθ) n 1 X = − + (y − A)2 @σ2 2σ2 2σ4 i i=1 n 1 X ) Ab = yi n i=1 n 2 1 X 2 ) σc = (yi − Ab) n i=1 Note: σc2 is biased! 6 / 34 Example: Stock Market (Dow-Jones Industrial Avg.) Based on this plot we might conjecture that the data is \on average" increasing. -
Pearson-Fisher Chi-Square Statistic Revisited
Information 2011 , 2, 528-545; doi:10.3390/info2030528 OPEN ACCESS information ISSN 2078-2489 www.mdpi.com/journal/information Communication Pearson-Fisher Chi-Square Statistic Revisited Sorana D. Bolboac ă 1, Lorentz Jäntschi 2,*, Adriana F. Sestra ş 2,3 , Radu E. Sestra ş 2 and Doru C. Pamfil 2 1 “Iuliu Ha ţieganu” University of Medicine and Pharmacy Cluj-Napoca, 6 Louis Pasteur, Cluj-Napoca 400349, Romania; E-Mail: [email protected] 2 University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Cluj-Napoca, 3-5 M ănăş tur, Cluj-Napoca 400372, Romania; E-Mails: [email protected] (A.F.S.); [email protected] (R.E.S.); [email protected] (D.C.P.) 3 Fruit Research Station, 3-5 Horticultorilor, Cluj-Napoca 400454, Romania * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel: +4-0264-401-775; Fax: +4-0264-401-768. Received: 22 July 2011; in revised form: 20 August 2011 / Accepted: 8 September 2011 / Published: 15 September 2011 Abstract: The Chi-Square test (χ2 test) is a family of tests based on a series of assumptions and is frequently used in the statistical analysis of experimental data. The aim of our paper was to present solutions to common problems when applying the Chi-square tests for testing goodness-of-fit, homogeneity and independence. The main characteristics of these three tests are presented along with various problems related to their application. The main problems identified in the application of the goodness-of-fit test were as follows: defining the frequency classes, calculating the X2 statistic, and applying the χ2 test. -
STAT 830 the Basics of Nonparametric Models The
STAT 830 The basics of nonparametric models The Empirical Distribution Function { EDF The most common interpretation of probability is that the probability of an event is the long run relative frequency of that event when the basic experiment is repeated over and over independently. So, for instance, if X is a random variable then P (X ≤ x) should be the fraction of X values which turn out to be no more than x in a long sequence of trials. In general an empirical probability or expected value is just such a fraction or average computed from the data. To make this precise, suppose we have a sample X1;:::;Xn of iid real valued random variables. Then we make the following definitions: Definition: The empirical distribution function, or EDF, is n 1 X F^ (x) = 1(X ≤ x): n n i i=1 This is a cumulative distribution function. It is an estimate of F , the cdf of the Xs. People also speak of the empirical distribution of the sample: n 1 X P^(A) = 1(X 2 A) n i i=1 ^ This is the probability distribution whose cdf is Fn. ^ Now we consider the qualities of Fn as an estimate, the standard error of the estimate, the estimated standard error, confidence intervals, simultaneous confidence intervals and so on. To begin with we describe the best known summaries of the quality of an estimator: bias, variance, mean squared error and root mean squared error. Bias, variance, MSE and RMSE There are many ways to judge the quality of estimates of a parameter φ; all of them focus on the distribution of the estimation error φ^−φ. -
Approximate Maximum Likelihood Method for Frequency Estimation
Statistica Sinica 10(2000), 157-171 APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR FREQUENCY ESTIMATION Dawei Huang Queensland University of Technology Abstract: A frequency can be estimated by few Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) coefficients, see Rife and Vincent (1970), Quinn (1994, 1997). This approach is computationally efficient. However, the statistical efficiency of the estimator de- pends on the location of the frequency. In this paper, we explain this approach from a point of view of an Approximate Maximum Likelihood (AML) method. Then we enhance the efficiency of this method by using more DFT coefficients. Compared to 30% and 61% efficiency in the worst cases in Quinn (1994) and Quinn (1997), respectively, we show that if 13 or 25 DFT coefficients are used, AML will achieve at least 90% or 95% efficiency for all frequency locations. Key words and phrases: Approximate Maximum Likelihood, discrete Fourier trans- form, efficiency, fast algorithm, frequency estimation, semi-sufficient statistics. 1. Introduction A model that has been discussed widely in Time Series Analysis and Signal Processing is the following: xt = Acos(tω + φ)+ut,t=0,...,T − 1, (1) where 0 <A,0 <ω<π,and {ut} is a stationary sequence satisfying certain conditions to be specified later. The objective is to estimate the frequency ω from the observations {xt}. After obtaining an estimator of the frequency, the amplitude A and the phase φ can be estimated by a standard linear least squares method. Two topics have been of interest in the study of this model: estimation efficiency and computational complexity. Following the idea of Best Asymp- totic Normal estimation (BAN), the efficiency hereafter is measured by the ratio of the Cramer - Rao Bound (CRB) for unbiased estimators over the variance of the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. -
Sketching for M-Estimators: a Unified Approach to Robust Regression
Sketching for M-Estimators: A Unified Approach to Robust Regression Kenneth L. Clarkson∗ David P. Woodruffy Abstract ing algorithm often results, since a single pass over A We give algorithms for the M-estimators minx kAx − bkG, suffices to compute SA. n×d n n where A 2 R and b 2 R , and kykG for y 2 R is specified An important property of many of these sketching ≥0 P by a cost function G : R 7! R , with kykG ≡ i G(yi). constructions is that S is a subspace embedding, meaning d The M-estimators generalize `p regression, for which G(x) = that for all x 2 R , kSAxk ≈ kAxk. (Here the vector jxjp. We first show that the Huber measure can be computed norm is generally `p for some p.) For the regression up to relative error in O(nnz(A) log n + poly(d(log n)=")) d time, where nnz(A) denotes the number of non-zero entries problem of minimizing kAx − bk with respect to x 2 R , of the matrix A. Huber is arguably the most widely used for inputs A 2 Rn×d and b 2 Rn, a minor extension of M-estimator, enjoying the robustness properties of `1 as well the embedding condition implies S preserves the norm as the smoothness properties of ` . 2 of the residual vector Ax − b, that is kS(Ax − b)k ≈ We next develop algorithms for general M-estimators. kAx − bk, so that a vector x that makes kS(Ax − b)k We analyze the M-sketch, which is a variation of a sketch small will also make kAx − bk small.