NORTH LANARKSHIRE COUNCIL

REPORT

To: Learning & Leisure Services Subject: Review of Non-Denominational Committee Primary and Secondary School Roll Projections within the From: Head of Resources Motherwell Area Committee Boundaries Date: August 2012 Ref: JMcWLE

Introduction

At the June meeting of this committee, three strategic priorities were agreed for developing the school estate. The purpose of this paper is to consider Strategic Priority 1: There should be an improvement in occupancykapacity ratios (known as building utilisation) across the non-denominational primary and secondary estate in the Motherwell Area.

Recommendations

The Learning and Leisure Services Committee is invited to:

(i) Note the strategic review of non-denominational primary and secondary education provision within the Motherwell Area

* Note that the projected rising roll of Brannock High school will be kept under review * Note that the projected rising rolls of Ladywell Primary and Muirhouse Primary schools will be kept under review * Note that the projected rising rolls at Holytown Primary, Keir Hardie Primary and New Stevenston Primary schools will be kept under review

(ii) Note that a separate paper on Calder, Glencairn and Muir Street Primary Schools is on todays Committee agenda

(iii) Continue to monitor the overall trend of increasing rolls as a direct result of proposed housing developments at the former Ravenscraig site. This may involve developer contributions being sought to facilitate an increase in the capacity of the school estate in this area.

(iv) Note that the Service intends to carry out a review of the capacity methodology in the future

Members wishing further information should contact James McKinstry, Head of Resources, on 01236 812269 NORTH LANARKSHIRE COUNCIL: LEARNING & LEISURE SERVICES

Review of Non-Denominational Primary and Secondary School Roll Projections within the Motherwell Area Committee Boundaries

Report by the Head of Resources

1 Introduction

1.I At the June meeting of this committee three strategic priorities were agreed for developing the future school estate, as follows:

* Strategic Priority 1: There should be an improvement in occupancykapacity ratios (known as bui I d ing utiI i sat io n) ; * Strategic Priority 2: We should be increasing the number of schools rated as A or B for both condition and suitability; and * Strategic Priority 3: Any strategy should work towards reducing the Council’s carbon footprint.

In relation to Strategic Priority 1 it is important that long term school roll projections are reviewed along with the potential impact of house building

1.2 The Motherwell Area Committee boundaries consist of the town of Motherwell and villages. When applying Strategic Priority 1 to the non-denominational estate in the Motherwell Area, 2 primary schools are highlighted as less than 60%; Calder Primary School and Cleland Primary School. There are currently no secondary schools highlighted as less than 60%. Appendix 1 of this report provides details of roll projections for all schools in the area.

1.3 However, when reviewing the roll projections for these schools it is considered necessary to carry out a strategic review of the whole non-denominational school estate within each area linked into long term roll projections.

1.4 In considering future roll projections for the schools, a number of factors require to be taken into account.

* estimated future birth rates; * anticipated pupil numbers from new house building; * the impact of past placing requests in and out of a catchment; * recent PI enrolment trends; * pupil migration; and * denominationalhon-denominational split

1.5 For the purpose of future forward planning the projections do not contain an estimate of future placing requests to the schools on the grounds that provision is already made for them in their designated school. All projections are based on the roll at September 201 1 and do not include any placing requests that may be received after that date. This is consistent with the planning model used for developing new schools.

1.6 For the purposes of this paper it is important to consider any sites of known future house building in the Motherwell area and how it impacts on each of the schools in the primary and secondary sector. This is shown in Appendices 3 and 4. It is important to note that the assessed impact of these new builds is already included in the roll projections included in this report.

1.7 When considering the impact of known and potential house building it is important to fully understand the relative status of the details included in the Housing Land Supply List. The Housing Land Audit is agreed annually with the house building industry umbrella organisation, Homes for Scotland. This is an annual prediction (therefore, subject to change year-on-year) of the number of houses that are expected to be built within a rolling 7-year period, based on site visits, past completion rates and industry feedback.

Some houses with full planning permission are within that figure. Full planning permissions are valid for between 3 and 5 years, depending on whether specific conditions are attached.

In effect, granting full planning permission can give a degree of certainty. However, this can still be affected by economic factors within the housing market, as can the Housing Land Audit process.

1.8 To mitigate the level of risk in this process roll projections are updated on an annual basis and regular liaison takes place between Learning and Leisure Services staff and Environmental Services staff.

2 Review of the Non-Denominational Primary School Estate within the Motherwell area boundary.

2.1 There are 7 non-denominational primary schools serving the town of Motherwell and 5 serving outlying villages. Appendix 1 to this report shows the occupancykapacity data for all the schools up to 2021, whilst table 1 below shows the combined occupancykapacity percentages for all non-denominational schools up to 2021.

Table 1: Combined occupancykapacity percentage of all Motherwell non-denominational primary schools

Table 1: Combined occupancy/capacity percentage of all outlying Motherwell villages non- denominational primary schools

~~ Year 201 1 201 3 201 5 201 7 201 9 2021 Com bined projected 98 1 1019 1068 1159 1235 1303 school roll Combined school 1149 1149 1149 1149 1149 1149 capacities Combined utilisation 85% 89% 93% 101% 107% 113% I percentage 3 Strategic Review of the Non-Denominational Secondary School Estate within the Motherwell area

3.1 There are 3 non-denominational secondary schools serving the Motherwell Area. Appendix 2 to this report shows the occupancy/capacity data for all schools up to 2021, whilst table 2 below shows the combined occupancy/capacity percentages for all non-denominational schools up to 2021.

Table 2 : Combined occupancy/capacity percentage of all Motherwell non-denominational secondary schools

4 Assessment of the non-denominational primary and secondary school estate within the Motherwell Area Committee boundaries against Strategic Priority 1

The following assessment details schools which are at, or are expected to be below 60% in the period up to 2021 or are at, or are expected to be above, 90% in the period up to 2021.

4.1 Motherwell - Primary Provision * Calder Primary is currently operating at 46% capacity. This is projected to fall to 42% in 2019 and remain at this level to 2021

* Glencairn Primary is currently operating at 62% capacity. This is projected to fall to 51% in 2019 and 52% in 2021

* Knowetop Primary is currently operating at 96% capacity. This is projected to fall to 53% in 2019 and 55% in 2021

* Ladywell Primary is currently operating at 94% capacity. This is projected to rise to 112% in 2019 and remain at this level to 2021

* Muirhouse Primary is currently operating at 89% capacity. This is projected to rise to 132% in 2019 and remain at this level until 2021.

4.2 Motherwell - Secondary Provision * Braidhurst High is currently operating at 79% capacity. This is projected to increase to 92% in 2019 falling to 87% in 2021.

* Brannock High is currently operating at 76% capacity. This is projected to increase to 98% in 2019 and 102% in 2021

* Dalziel High is currently operating at 99% capacity. This is projected to fall to 84% in 2019 and 82% in 2021 4.3 Motherwell Villaaes

* Cleland Primary is currently operating at 51% capacity. This is projected to increase to 69% in 2019 and 70% in 2021

* Holytown Primary is currently operating at 76% capacity. This is projected to increase to 92% in 2019 and 100% in 2021

* Keir Hardie Primary is currently operating at 80% capacity. This is projected to increase to 181% in 2019 and 194% in 2021

* New Stevenston Primary is currently operating at 126% capacity. This is projected to increase to 138% in 2019 and 144% in 2021.

4.4 The previous standard used within the service to calculate planning capacity within the primary sector was 1.7m2 per pupil. In 2004 this was amended to 2.1m2 per pupil. For open plan schools the current practice is to use 2.4m2/ pupil.

There is no legal minimum or maximum square meterage per pupil applied across Scotland and it is known that other authorities are using figures of less than 2.1m2 per pupil in their capacity calculations.

For schools whose occupancy are currently, or in the future, highlighted as being above 100% appendix 5 provides details of how this is being managed.

The service intends to carry out a review of the capacity methodology in the future. 5 Recommendations

The Learning and Leisure Services Committee is invited to:

(i) Note the strategic review of non denominational primary and secondary education provision within the Motherwell Area

* Note that the projected rising roll of Brannock High school will be kept under review * Note that the projected rising rolls of Ladywell Primary and Muirhouse Primary schools will be kept under review * Note that the projected rising rolls at Holytown Primary, Keir Hardie Primary and New Stevenston Primary schools will be kept under review

(ii) Note a separate paper on Calder, Glencairn and Muir Street Primary Schools is on todays Committee agenda

(iii) Continue to monitor the overall trend of increasing rolls as a direct result of proposed housing developments at the former Ravenscraig site. This may involve developer contributions being sought to facilitate an increase in the capacity of the school estate in this area.

(iv) Note that the Service intends to carry out a review of the capacity methodology in the future 6 List of Appendices

Appendix 1 : Primary school roll projections for the town of Motherwell and villages up to 2021

Appendix 2 : Secondary school roll projections for the town of Motherwell and villages up to 2021

Appendix 3 : Impact of anticipated house building on primary schools in the town of Motherwell and villages

Appendix 4 : Impact of anticipated house building on secondary schools in the town of Motherwell and villages

Appendix 5 : Schools whose capacity is currently or projected to be over 100%. Appendix 1

Combined occupancykapacity percentages for all Motherwell Non-denominational primary schools

Table 3: Motherwell

School

Calder 317 D C C Glencairn 300 B B C Knowetop 492 C A C Ladywell 372 A A B

Logans 206 B A B 90% Muir Street 346 B B C 70% Muirhouse 296 C A B 89% Totals 2329

Table 3: Villages

.-E c= 0 62 m n School n 3: d SN

Cleland 200 55% 117 59% 129 65% 137 69% 139 70% Holytown 316 239 76% 244 77% 257 81% 279 88% 290 92% 317 100% Keir Hardie 176 94% 212 120% 264 150% 318 181% 341 194% New Stevenston 252 126% 323 128% 331 131% 348 138% 364 144% Newarthill 205 88% 159 78% 156 76% 142 69% 142 69% Totals 1149 89% 1068 93% 1159 101% 1235 107% 1303 113% 3 3 (D Q 0 0 0 c U Capacity P) 3 0 Condition x P) U Utilisation Iu 9. U" Suitability

2011 Roll

Occupancy

2013 Roll

Occupancy

2015 Roll Occupancy 5

2017 Roll (D2 3 0 Occupancy 3. 3 !% 0 2019 Roll 3 n, Occupancy

2021 Roll

Occupancy Appendix 3

Table 5: Known future house building in the Motherwell area and impact on non-denominational primary schools

Table 5: Known future house building in the Motherwell villages and impact on non- denominational primary schools Appendix 4

Table 6: Known future house building in the Motherwell area and impact on non-denominational secondary schools Motherwell Area- Non Denominational Schools Appendix 5

School Utilisation Utilisation Utilisation Utilisation bove 100% 201 1 201 9 2021 Current Future Ladywell PS 94% 112% 112% Sufficient Capacity Increased roll projections do not (2.3m2) (2.3m2) take account of the number of pupils who normally make placing requests out of Ladywell PS. The school has an open plan design. Roll will be closely monitored.

Muirhouse PS 89% 132% 132% Sufficient Capacity Increased roll projections do not (1 .8m2) (1 .8m2) take account of the number of pupils who normally make placing requests out of Muirhouse PS. Accommodation review will need to be carried out

Keir Hardie 80% 181% 194% Sufficient Capacity Future roll projections take Memorial PS (1.0m2) (1 .0m2) account of potential major housing developments at Ravenscraig and the former treatment works. However, the Ravenscraig development may not happen in the next 5 year period. There may be a need to consider a new school in this area in the future. Close liaison with Planning Services will continue to assess the impact of this potential development on our estate. Increased roll projections do not take account of the number of pupils who normally make placing requests out of Keir Hardie PS Accommodation review will need to be carried out New Stevenston 126% 138% 144% Currently operating at 1.6m2 per Future roll projections take PS (1 .6m2) (1 .4m2) (1 .4m2) pupil. As a PPP school the design account of the proposed major of the school allows flexibility in housing developments at the teaching areas. Fullwood Foundry and the former treatment works. Close liaison with Planning Services will continue to assess the impact of this potential development on our estate. Accommodation review will need to be carried out Brannock HS 76% 98% 102% Sufficient Capacity Future roll projections take account of potential major developments at Ravenscraig, Fullwood Foundry and former treatment works. However, the Ravenscraig development may not happen in the next 5 year period. Close liaison with Planning Services will continue to assess the impact of this potential development on our estate. Accommodation will be closely monitored

* Accommodation review may result in one or more of the following options being considered as appropriate

* Utilise other accommodation within the school to increase capacity * Cap the pupil intake * Rezoning catchment areas * Temporary modular accommodation * Developers contribution towards school extensions + Capacity may be amended as the result of a full capacity review