POPULATION DEVELOPMENT of SLOVENIA from the BEGINNING of COUNTING to the PRESENT DAY Damir Josipovi~

POPULATION DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVENIA FROM THE BEGINNING OF COUNTING TO THE PRESENT DAY Damir Josipovi~

According to its numbers, the Slovene population belongs ethnically and nationally among the smaller populations of European countries. However, it is distinguished by its historic endurance and continuity in Slovenia and in neighbouring areas since the 6th century. The existence of the Slovene people as an ethnic group that survived in spite of strong assimilation pressures and which managed to preserve the Slovene language as the main distinguishing component of ethnicity largely throughout its rural hinterland provided the foundation for the formation of modern Slovenia. Throughout its history from its initial colonization in the 6th century, Slovene ethnic territory shrank constantly. In the first few cen- turies after colonization, the settling area of our Slovene ancestors encompassed the majority of the territory of today's Austria, more than a third of Hungary and Croatia, and eastern border areas of today's Italy. Relative to the size of today's Slovenia, this ethnic territory shrank most in the north and east, and least in the west. As an independent country, Slovenia is the millennium-long dream of the Slovene people come true, but a considerable area populated by speakers of autochthonous Slovene dialects still remains outside the state borders. Thus today, Slovenia has autochthonous minorities in all four neighbouring countries. In the time since the first estimates of the population on the territory of today's Slovenia in the mid- dle of the 18th century and the first censuses a good century later, the Slovene population has not increased as other European populations then comparable with the Slovene population have. In the 19th centu-

Figure 1: Manual farm work has almost disappeared (photography Marjan Garbajs).

81 Damir Josipovi~ Population Development of Slovenia from the beginning of Counting to the Present Day .355 1.964.036 between 1857 urrent territoryurrent for censuses current territory Calculations for the c current of Slovenia. hanges in the number after population censuses in the period 1857 1869 1880 1890 1900 1910 1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 Table 1: Number and gender the population Slovenia of of and c 1: Number Table (w)Chain Index [ifrerSource: the to 1963; SURS; our own calculations; Census data refers 100 103.0 103.8 104.6 102.7 104.2 100.8 106.1 105.5 103.7 104.8 107.3 109.2 101.7 101.6 between 1857 and @. [ifrer summarized from 1910 are 3/1963). – Stanovni{tvo Men (m)Men (w)Women DifferenceAbsolute 535.945 Diff. (m)Absolute 565.909 545.614 583.154 0 576.964 Diff. (w)Absolute 605.259 601.031 26.914Index 0 633.025 618.065 53.455 643.898 649.990Chain Index 0 9.669 677.200 622.168 51.833 682.632 673.248 (m)Index 31.350 17.245 33.999 724.402 675.353 22.105 24.067 53.043 (m)Chain Index 764.447 712.034 –16.298 100 100 17.034 27.766 792.393 760.770 (w)Index 92.850 25.833 830.753 16.965 835.998 100 100 –21.730 102.4 102.4 42.150 891.139 27.210 918.766 51.080 104.7 107.3 973.098 64.627 5.432 101.8 101.8 923643 2.105 41.770 87.096 989712 100 104.4 112.0 958.576 105.7 107.7 1.005.460 36.681 135.614 40.045 102.8 115.1 103.0 104.2 112.1 164.727 48.736 27.946 104.2 119.9 102.8 115.3 107.0 75.228 21.491 38.360 118.4 98.8 104.2 120.1 50.681 82.768 111.9 60.386 126.8 107.1 116.1 96.6 114.9 81.959 4.877 130.7 103.0 125.6 119.7 108.2 34.933 16.614 136.5 104.5 126.0 120.6 100.3 15.748 144.4 105.8 128.0 132.9 105.4 156.7 135.1 108.5 141.9 106.8 171.7 140.0 156.0 109.5 109.9 146.8 173.6 171.4 101.1 109.9 157.5 178.2 102.6 172.3 100.5 172.0 178.9 103.8 174.9 177.7 TOTAL 1.101.854 1.128.768 1.182.223 1.234.056 1.268.055 1.321.098 1.304.800 1.397.650 1.439.800 1.504.427 1.591.523 1.727.137 1.891.864 1.913 and 2002.

82 Slovenia: a Geographical Overview ry, the Slovene population ranked among the medium-sized populations of the European space and in numbers was roughly comparable with the neighbouring Croatian and Serbian populations, if we limit ourselves to just the populations in our immediate vicinity. However, the Serbian population in particular experienced a rapid expansion during the 20th century, and today the Serbian population is about five times larger than the Slovene population, while the Croatian population is twice its size. The reasons for the very low increase in the Slovene population are numerous, the most important being emigration of a large part of active population mostly to overseas countries and the simultaneous start of a decline in the birth rate. One of the basic factors of this development is certainly the lack of a Slovene nation-state. Thus in comparison with other ethnic populations, demographic transition did not bring comparable population surpluses. The same is true of all populations who have been without their own state for a long time. Among the classic nation-states in Europe today, only the Estonian population is smaller than the Slovene population. The reason for this lies in the political power of the country, which could acquire speakers through its official language policy at the expense of languages whose status was not officially recognized. A comparison of census data shows that the number of inhabitants on the current territory of Slovenia has not even doubled since the first census and that growth was not steady in the periods between censuses. The period between 1857 and 1910 was marked by a quite constant but weak growth in the number of the population. This growth would have been considerably higher had the population not started to emigrate intensively in the second half of the 19th century, mostly due to agrarian overpopulation and the general socio-economic crisis. The extent of emigration has been so large that along with the Irish and the Croats, Slovenes rank to the very top of European emigration. Between 1910 and 1921, the number of the population even regressed, which can be attributed to large war losses and the addi- tional emigration mostly from the western part of Slovenia (Primorska) that was granted to Italy as spoils of war after World War I. Between 1921 and 1948, the Slovene population did record growth,

2.000.000 1.800.000 1.600.000 1.400.000 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 1857 1869 1880 1890 1900 1910 1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002

TOTAL Men Women

Figure 2: Number and gender of the population of Slovenia according to censuses between 1857 and 2002 (Source: Ibid.).

83 Damir Josipovi~ Population Development of Slovenia from the beginning of Counting to the Present Day km Lendava

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[ ic less than 80 (750) Pesn 120 and more110 to (722) 119,9100 to 109,9 (759) (1434) Ptuj Lenart goricah v Slovenskih Scale: 1 : 1,300,000 Author: Damir Josipovi~ © Geografski in{titut Antona Melika ZRC SAZU, 2004 in{titut Antona Melika ZRC SAZU, © Geografski 01020304050 Population growth index 2002/1991 index growth Population

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Slovenia: a Geographical Overview p Figure 3: Change in the population by settlements in Slovenia between 1991 and 2002 (Source: our own calculations, SURS). but this was reduced because of the continuation of emigration and losses as a consequence of World War II. After World War II with the post-war baby boom, emigration continued into the 1950's, but after that period Slovenia became an immigration area as a result of rapid industrialization. Emigration to foreign countries dropped markedly while the influx of the population from other parts of the former Yugoslavia increased. Because the natural increase still ensured a relative surplus, the number of the population increased considerably with positive migration balance, especially in the period between 1971 and 1981. The data for the census years 1991 and 2002 is not quite comparable with pre- vious data because of a different definition of the population, which is now the same in Slovenia as it is in the majority of European Union countries. For this reason, the census data gives the impression that the population practically ceased to grow after 1981. However, this is not true. If we compare the data for 1981 and 1991 acquired using the same methodology, we realize that the population increased by a good 70,000. This increase is in accordance with the natural increase and the migration balance of the period of the 1980's. In the second half of the 1980's, immigration to Slovenia from other parts of Yugoslavia decreased considerably, but at the same time the natural increase also decreased, and in 1993 was negative for the first time since World War II. Since 1997, the natural increase in Slovenia has remained negative. The period between the last two censuses does mark a growth in the number of the inhabitants, but this growth is mostly due to immigration, a different method of gathering information, and a new definition of the population. The Slovene population in the last period is characterized by stagnation in the number along with an unfavourable age structure, which is rooted largely in the drastically reduced birth rate. This low birth rate ranks Slovenia at the bottom of European countries. The period of strong migration to Slovenia

Figure 4: Traditional pottery still lives today (photography Jo`e Pojbi~).

85 Damir Josipovi~ Population Development of Slovenia from the beginning of Counting to the Present Day from areas of the former Yugoslavia that concealed the seriousness of the decline of the birth rate ended with the independence of Slovenia. If the birth rate continues to decrease or stagnate, the migration balance will have to increase substantially to maintain the number of the population at the level of about two million. In the last decade, there has again been a trend toward a slight increase of immigration, but the increase is still far below the number necessary to replace annual generation losses. Within Slovenia, substantial differences exist in the number development of the population. The map shows the changes in the population according to settlements in the last period between censuses. Along with the general relative stagnation or the low total growth of the population of Slovenia, higher growth is distinctly evident mainly in the urban Ljubljana region while other, mostly rural and border areas have suffered strong depopulation. Such development is the consequence of the uneven regional development that Slovenia has witnessed particularly in the last decade.