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The Brainstormers the Electromagnetic Field COMMENT SPRING BOOKS weather forecasting, particularly in the United States. Between the birth of Bjerknes — the oldest — in 1862 and the death of Wexler, the youngest, in 1962, there passed a forma- Inventing tive and innovative Atmospheric century. As Fleming Science: reveals, their lives were Bjerknes, Rossby, linked, with Bjerknes Wexler, and the teaching Rossby and Foundations Rossby, Wexler. of Modern Meteorology In 1904, in ‘Weather JAMES RODGER forecasting as a prob- FLEMING lem in mechanics and MIT Press: 2016. physics’, Bjerknes set the agenda for applying the laws of physics to the atmosphere to predict the weather (V. Bjerknes Meteorol. Z. 21, 1–7; 1904). His vision was to use a sufficiently accurate knowledge of the state of the atmosphere and the laws that govern its evolution to forewarn people about weather to come. His motiva- METEOROLOGY tion was to make his mark in what was for him a new field of science — he began his career working with his father, a physicist at the University of Oslo, on fluid analogies for The brainstormers the electromagnetic field. He was eager, too, to provide practical advice on hazards that affected mariners, farmers and the public. Alan Thorpe enjoys a hymn to some of the founders of Fleming notes the absence of a book-length the science and institutions of weather forecasting. biography of Rossby, and I hope that this will be rectified soon. To me, he is a first among equals. As well as building institutions, he t is thanks to the efforts of an international impacts, mostly on US weather forecasting. established important principles, such as the community of meteorologists and atmos- To the cognoscenti, the essentials of conservation of potential vorticity — used to pheric scientists that accurate forecasts of Bjerknes’s and Rossby’s science will be famil- understand the development of rotation in Imajor weather systems can be made reliably iar. Fleming’s fascinating account clarifies why cyclones and other weather systems — and up to about a week ahead (see P. Bauer et al. these two were giants of leadership. Bjerknes the large-scale atmospheric wave patterns Nature 525, 47–55; 2015). Many researchers created the ‘Bergen school’ of meteorology, named after him. He was a leader in devel- contributed to the revolution in weather sci- which used rigorous scientific principles oping techniques such as experiments that ences in the first half of the twentieth century, to understand and predict the evolution of simulate the atmosphere in a rotating tank of so it is perhaps invidious to single out a few. weather features such as fronts and cyclones. water, as well as aircraft soundings and the use Science historian James Fleming focuses on The school included his son Jacob among of radiosondes, or radio-based measurements three: Norwegian Vilhelm Bjerknes, Swede many talented, mainly Scandinavian, scien- using weather balloons. A polymath with a Carl-Gustaf Rossby and American Harry tists. Rossby established university schools of high public profile, he was pictured on the Wexler. The first two I expected; the third I meteorology in Stockholm and Chicago, and cover of Time magazine in December 1956, was intrigued to learn more about. Fleming at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with the title “Weatherman”. devotes about 60 pages to each man’s life and in Cambridge. The breadth of Wexler’s role Wexler’s contributions include making work, and mentions many others and their emerges through his contributions to the the first research flight into a hurricane, development of techniques and operational using radar to track storm systems, working NEW IN Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet PAPERBACK Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman (Princeton University Press, 2016) Global, long-term, irreversible, uncertain: four words used by economists Gernot Highlights of this Wagner and Martin Weitzman in their timely warning on the impacts of climate season’s releases change. It is not enough to simply hope that we are wrong about worst-case scenarios; the authors’ most extreme predictions include a 20-metre sea-level rise and average global temperatures reaching 6 °C above pre-industrial levels. Wagner and Weitzman urge us to act now to insure Earth against uncertainty. 30 | NATURE | VOL 532 | 7 APRIL 2016 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved SPRING BOOKS COMMENT towards space observations and develop- ENERGY ing the use of computers in meteorology. From the findings of these three men, Fleming expertly weaves a tapestry of broader developments, from early uses Oilman at the peak of computers and satellites to numeri- cal predictions with supercomputers. He Gregor Macdonald applauds a biography of prescient explores intentional weather modification, geologist and energy theorist Marion King Hubbert. radio­active fallout, rocketry, air pollution and electromagnetism. For example, the air movements made apparent when scientist’s work does not always The Oracle of Oil: A researchers tracked the fallout from intersect neatly with the events of Maverick Geologist’s nuclear-bomb tests in the 1950s provided their time, but that was the good Quest for a Sustainable insight into atmospheric circulation. Afortune of US geologist and oilman Marion Future MASON INMAN The penultimate chapter covers what King Hubbert (1903–89). After labouring W. W. Norton: 2016. Fleming calls the birth of atmospheric for decades to perfect forecasting of the oil- science in the late 1950s, coinciding with production limit, he saw his efforts validated planning for the International Geophysical in the energy crises of the early 1970s. His Year in 1957–58. In 1956, Rossby proposed approach would later be known as Hubbert enlarging the definition of meteorology peak theory. shortage of ambition, Hubbert saw geology as to include elements such as atmospheric Journalist Mason Inman’s meticulous a wide-open field, and gate-crashed it. With chemistry and relevant biological pro- biography The Oracle of Oil follows Hub- precocious brilliance, he began to identify cesses. Much of what we regard as con- bert from his youth on the plains of Texas gaps and disorganization in its practices, and temporary developments, such as the through the Great Depression, the Second published his first paper, on fault classifica- understanding of atmospheric composi- World War and the rise of US President tions, as an undergraduate. In 1930, he was tion or geoengineering, were in the minds Ronald Reagan in 1981. But its scope is head-hunted by Columbia University in New of 1950s researchers, Fleming points out. much more expansive. In Hubbert’s story, York City to direct a new effort in geophysics. Modifying the reflectivity of the planet Inman has found a meditation on the Here, Inman’s biography reveals its to avoid harmful climate change was dis- booms and busts that marked thoughtful design, tracing the cussed by Wexler and others as early as twentieth-century economic youthful roots of Hubbert’s 1958. In a 1962 speech, Wexler said: “We growth. Hubbert’s icono- formidable achievements. are in weather control now whether we clastic career forms a The undergrad ponder- know it or not.” Fleming also focuses on perfect arc, from oil’s ing Earth’s folds one the importance of committees in plan- troubling oversupply summer later becomes a ning developments such as the creation of in the 1920s to its rela- breakthrough geologist, the US National Center for Atmospheric tive scarcity after the solving complex scal- Research in 1960, and the role of top peak of US produc- ing problems. The boy researchers in leading these committees. tion in 1971, when the surrounded by oil rigs A historical account has to have bound- US economy suffered becomes a Shell execu- aries, and Fleming barely hints at what oil shocks. tive, aggressively pursuing came after 1960. I found the discussion of As Inman shows, Hub- the hydrological and struc- Edward Lorenz’s work on chaos that led to bert’s impact extends beyond tural complexities of oilfield aspects of probabilistic forecasting dispro- oil: it is an early manifestation of exploration. The young man who portionately brief. ecological economics. At the end of questioned religious faith becomes a What shines through Inventing Atmos- his career, Hubbert remained concerned nonconformist US Geological Survey (USGS) pheric Science is the commitment of three about nuclear waste; was convinced that researcher, insisting that popular forecasts are men to applications of research to society, high rates of growth were environmentally built less on data than on optimism. and their desire to advance our under- destructive; and conjectured that solar Inman’s direct, explanatory style is well standing of weather. This is an inspira- power might be the most viable energy suited to describing the evolution of Hub- tional story, very well told. ■ solution. With regard to growth or sustain- bert’s thinking. At Columbia, Hubbert began ability, Hubbert’s work is an overlooked to ponder the S-curve of growth that has long Alan Thorpe is visiting professor of contribution to US economic history. fascinated observers of economies, biology meteorology at the University of Reading, UK. Arriving at the University of Chicago and natural-resource extraction. He perfected e-mail: [email protected] in Illinois in 1924 with little money but no his technique over decades, from rough The Upright Thinkers Why Information Grows Leonard Mlodinow (Vintage, 2016) César A. Hidalgo (Penguin, 2016) Carrier pigeons once toted stock prices. Today, Economies are computers and information is at instant messaging manages the job. Theoretical war with entropy, claims statistical physicist César physicist Leonard Mlodinow explores how the Hidalgo. He shows how the scientific imagination most human of desires, a thirst for knowledge, needs knowledge and resources to grow, such as grew from Neanderthal hunger pangs to the Chilean copper that ‘feeds’ electronics (see measuring our planet’s orbit around the Sun.
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