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Chemicals Sector Report August 2006

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Chemicals Sector Report August 2006 Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 INSIDE THIS REPORT: Chemicals Innovest Time Series Analysis of the Chemical Sector Sector Report We created two portfolios. Portfolio 1 consists of our AAA-AA top rated companies. Portfolio 2 consists of our BB- August 2006 CCC bottom rated companies. They are equal weighted and adjusted monthly. The results – Portfolio 1 outperformed Portfolio 2 by 122% over the last 7 years. Report prepared by Heather Langsner, Senior Analyst, Noran Eid, Zaki Raheem and Hiroshi Minami. For investors with longer time horizons Chemical product liability is likely to be a significant driver of volatility over the next 200% several years. Lyondell (LYO: NYSE) and DuPont (DD: NYSE) are useful examples. Difference Above Average Innovest Rating Below Average Innovest Rating Innovest is the only investment research 150% firm that currently identifies chemical product risk prior to incident. This may increasingly affect valuation for certain 100% companies in our universe. 50% Short term investors We made a number of ‘good calls’ this Total Return Total period. See page 6. Clearly the Innovest 0% model helps us to pick up on binary events from time to time. -50% Markets -100% REACH continues to present many unknown variables for companies. This includes questions about testing capacity, Jun1997 Jun1998 Jun1999 Jun2000 Jun2001 Jun2002 Jun2003 Jun2004 Jun2005 Jun2006 Dec1996 Dec1997 Dec1998 Dec1999 Dec2000 Dec2001 Dec2002 Dec2003 Dec2004 Dec2005 intellectual property concerns, and lead time to market. However our research indicates that changes to operating expenses on a yearly basis will not be as dramatic as the trade associations want us to think. EXCERPT ONLY THIS IS NOT A FULL REPORT Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 Table of Contents Chapters 1 Forward Looking Themes 5 2 Our Value Added 7 3 Innovest Calls for the Period 8 4 Markets 10 5 Fundamentals 21 6 Product Risk 23 7 China 25 Appendix A – Company Profiles 28 2 Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 This report covers three sub segments of the chemicals sector Commodity, Diversified and Specialty Chemicals. More than 120 factors are covered. Cumulatively, these factors are a proxy for management quality – a key determinant of stock performance. SPECIALTY The Specialty Chemicals segment is characterized by high value added, low volume production, although some companies are vertically integrated. Sector specific intangible value issues include heightened emphasis on research, abrupt customer migration to alternative products, regulation impacting esoteric specialty products and the intermediates used to make them. This group includes several of the Biotech majors. DIVERSIFIED The Diversified Chemicals segment is characterized by a conglomerate business model. Companies are highly impacted by market cycles. Vertical integration is common throughout the group. Product regulation and related safety concerns are common throughout the group and payouts for legacy issues tend to show up in special items more often for these firms. Product sustainability issues are emerging that would be relevant to long-term valuation. This group also includes Biotech majors. COMMODITY The Commodity companies manufacture basic chemicals in large volume. Our coverage of this group includes approximately 11 Japanese firms. Intangible value issues include operational risks such as worker protection, energy use and site security. A few large-scale product sustainability issues are emerging that would be relevant to long-term valuation. 3 Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 FIGURE 1: Combined Rating and Select Sub-segment Performance Overall Social Env. Rating Strategy Operating Product Market Risk R&D Profit Rating Rating Risk Opp'ty Specialty Chemicals Agrium Inc Air Liquide R Air Products & Chemicals Inc BOC Group PLC British Vita PLC High score is 10 Ciba Specialty Chemicals Clariant Relative, Best-in-class sector Daicel Chemical Industries Ltd. benchmark Dainippon Ink & Chemicals DSM NV Top Quartile Ecolab Inc Bottom Quartile Givaudan N Hitachi Chemical Company Ltd. Imperial Chemical Industries PLC International Flavours & Fragrances JSR Corp. Kansai Paint Co. Lonza Group Methanex Monsanto Company Nippon Zeon Co Nitto Denko Corp. Novozymes AAA AAA AAA 8.3 6.8 5.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 Potash Sask Inc Praxair Inc Rohm & Haas Company Shin-Etsu Chemical Company Ltd. Sigma Aldrich Corp. Syngenta AG Taiyo Nippon Sanso Corp. Tokuyama Corp Yara International Diversified Chemicals Akzo Nobel BASF AAA AAA AAA 9.2 7.7 5.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 Bayer Degussa AG Dow Chemicals Company Du Pont EI De Nemours Eastman Chemicals Company Engelhard Corp. Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Co. Inc Nissan Chemical Industries Ltd. Orica Limited PPG Industries Inc Showa Denko KK Sumitomo Chemical Company Ltd. UBE Industries Commodity Chemicals Asahi Kasei Corp. Redacted Chart Celanese AG Denki Kagaku Kogyo KK For full report, contact Kaneka Corporation Peter Wilkes Kuraray Company Limited AAA AAA AAA 8.0 8.7 6.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 212-421-2000 ext. 216 Lyondell Chemical Co. Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation Mitsubishi Rayon Company Ltd. Mitsui Chemicals Nova Corp. Solvay Teijin Limited AAA AA AAA 6.24.35.06.08.0 10.0 Toray Industries Inc Tosoh Corporation Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 4 Markets Polyvinyl Chloride,Chlor-Alkali the Long-Term View Global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand is forecast to grow about 4% per year through 20092. However, investors may note the potential for increasing elasticity in the market for consumer facing applications of PVC particularly as the quality of alternative products improve. Our assessment of the demand for non-construction related applications of PVC is impacted by the following scenarios: European policy Large molecule polymers are not covered by REACH but monomers are covered hence vinyl chloride monomer would be affected. Europe represents 19% of the global demand for PVC products. Customer migration and limitations in key market segments The year 2005 was important for PVC phase outs by major name brands. While the outlook for construction applications of PVC remains strong the following developments point to a growing product perception problem that could impact the other major aspects of PVC demand namely packaging and non-construction related applications: » Wal-Mart, Intel, Dell, Hewlett Packard, Firestone Building Products, cities of New York and San Francisco, 90% of the Hospital and Healthcare market are in the process or have initiated phase-out. » Chinese manufacturers report that the government has been cracking down on property speculation. This is likely to result in a slowdown in the building of new units and slightly limits the picture of strong growth in demand in China driven by construction. » Earlier in the year the trade publications began posting numbers regarding Chinese overcapacity in PVC production and more recently the government has begun issuing production quotas in high production regions. » Petroleum prices may drive up resins prices potentially affecting sales of siding (approximately 15% of construction demand), windows (~6.5%), profiles (~3.6%) and flooring (~3.2%)3. Sales of these items have been down 2 www.chemweek.com December 17, 2005 3 SRI Consulting. Chemical Economic Handbook. As reported in: Ackerman, Frank and Massey, Rachel. The Economics of Phasing Out PVC. Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University. 2005 10 Innovest Strategic Value Advisors Chemicals Sector Report www.innovestgroup.com August 2006 European Chemicals Policy (REACH) Starting in 2004 we began our analysis of the competitive concerns associated with REACH noting that transatlantic trade could be affected. Clients who require background on this issue should refer to our previous sector reports. As part of our annual review process, we interview more than 60 companies to identify risk and exposure. The analysis breaks down into four parts: Basic exposure This first line of analysis provides a general sense of what percentage of revenues could be affected by the regulation. FIGURE 6 Basic analysis of European sales and production assets in Europe K+S Yule Catto DSM NV SIKA Finanaz PPG Industries Degussa AG BASF Akzo Nobel Air Liquide Solvay Celanese % Assets in Europe Croda International % Sales in Europe Bayer Novozymes Elementis Int'l Flavours & Grace WR Hercules Inc Dow Chemicals BOC Group Imperial Chemical Yara International Arch Chemicals FMC Air Products & Chemicals Dainippon Ink & Chemtura Rohm & Haas Methanex Nova Corp Eastman Chemicals Ishihara Sangyo Monsanto Praxair Inc Du Pont Shin-Etsu Chemical Kuraray Nippon Shokubai Teijin 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Innovest HPV We go beyond this basic assessment by evaluating correlated indicators such as company performance in submitting complete chemical toxicity reports on time to the OECD’s High Product Volume (HPV) voluntary program. We feel this is an interesting proxy for company ability to respond to the reporting challenges presented by REACH. This analysis is incorporated into an overall score for market and product risk see sub-scores provided in the beginning of the report. Product review Innovest already conducts a comprehensive review of potential product risk for each company in our chemicals universe. Then we apply this analysis to an estimation of product groups that are likely to trigger the “authorization” phase of REACH. This allows us to identify intermediates used in production and end products that might be phased out in the Authorization stage. » Most companies are so diverse that a specific hit to one intermediary may be of minimal relevance. However, in volume, certain companies may experience enough change that routing process re-planning may be necessary. Companies are only just beginning to make cost estimates of related process changes. 13 .
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