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On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach

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On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach National Defence University Series 1: Research Publications No. 21 On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Systems Approach Kent Andersson Kent Andersson National Defence University PL 7, 00861 HELSINKI Tel. +358 299 800 www.mpkk.fi ISBN 978-951-25-2998-8 (pbk.) ISBN 978-951-25-2999-5 (PDF) ISSN 2342-9992 (print) ISSN 2343-0001 (web) Series 1, No. 21 The Finnish Defence Forces KENT ANDERSSON ON THE MILITARY UTILITY OF SPECTRAL DESIGN IN SIGNATURE MANAGEMENT: A SYSTEMS APPROACH Doctoral dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Military Sciences to be presented, with the consent of the Finnish National Defence University, for public examination in Sverigesalen, at the Swedish Defence University, Drottning Kristinas väg 37, in Stockholm, on Friday 13th of April at 1 pm. NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY HELSINKI 2018 NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY SERIES 1: RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS NO. 21 FINSKA FÖRSVARSUNIVERSITETET SERIE 1: FORSKINGSPUBLIKATIONER NR. 21 ON THE MILITARY UTILITY OF SPECTRAL DESIGN IN SIGNATURE MANAGEMENT: A SYSTEMS APPROACH KENT ANDERSSON NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY HELSINKI 2018 Kent Andersson: On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management: a Sys- tems Approach National Defence University, Finland Series 1: Research Publications No. 21 Doctoral dissertation Finska Försvarshögskolan Publikationsserie 1: Forskingspublikationer nr. 21 Doktorsavhandling Author: Lt Col, Tech. Lic. Kent Andersson Supervising professor: Professor Jouko Vankka, National Defence University, Finland Preliminary examiners: Professor Harold Lawson, Prof. Emeritus, ACM, IEEE and INCOSE Fellow, IEEE Computer pioneer, Sweden Professor Christer Larsson, Lund University, Sweden Official opponents: Professor Jari Hartikainen, Finnish Defence Research Agency, Finland Professor Harold Lawson, Prof. Emeritus, ACM, IEEE and INCOSE Fellow, IEEE Computer pioneer, Sweden Recent publications in PDF format: http://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/73990 Cover photo: Hans Liwång The Cover photo shows a military patrol vehicle in the Stockholm traffic. © Author & National Defence University ISBN 978-951-25-2998-8 (pbk.) ISBN 978-951-25-2999-5 (PDF) ISSN 2342-9992 (print) ISSN 2343-0001 (web) National Defence University of Finland Finska Försvarshögskolan Juvenes Print Tampere 2018 To Ulla-Britt, Anna, Amanda and Johanna ”The objective of stealth is to keep the adversary guessing until it is too late” /David Lynch, Jr, 2003 ABSTRACT There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expedi- tionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materi- als and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties con- cerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature man- agement has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situa- tions involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decision- making. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objec- tive is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is syn- thesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of relat- ed work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a frame- work to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribu- tion to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to com- municate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spec- tral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a meth- odology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology. Keywords: military utility, survivability, signature management, systems engineering, cam- ouflage, Low Observable Technology, spectral design, multi-spectral. i SAMMANFATTNING Det finns en ständigt pågående kamp mellan militär sensorutveckling och signatur- anpassning. Det senaste decenniet, som karaktäriserats av asymmetrisk krigföring och gemensamma expeditionära operationer, har gynnat sensorerna. Nu har emel- lertid intresset för effektivare skydd av egna militära plattformar ökat till följd av den försämrade säkerhetssituationen i Europa. Spektral design är då en av flera lovande teknologier med potential att användas vid signaturanpassning och det bedrivs en omfattande forskning. Teknologin kan sägas omfatta tekniker för att skapa en yta med de optiska egenskaper som önskas. I den tillämpning som studeras i den här avhandlingen är syftet att minska ett objekts kontrast till bakgrunden, d.v.s. dess signatur, och det sker genom lämpligt val av ytors material och struktur. Militära beslutsfattare står ofta inför en stor utmaning då de ska välja mellan fram- tida förmågor, teknologier eller utrustning. Sådana beslutssituationer präglas ofta av stor osäkerhet och en begränsad ekonomi. Sett från det andra hållet är det ofta svårt för forskare inom teknologier för signaturanpassning att kommunicera relevant be- slutsunderlag, på grund av signaturers speciella systemkaraktär. Avhandlingen omfattar en undersökning med syftet att finna och analysera eventu- ella mönster i beslutssituationer rörande teknologier eller tekniska system för militär användning. Målet är att lämna konceptuella och metodmässiga bidrag till stöd för framtida beslutsfattning. Teknologin i fokus är spektral design och tillämpningen är signaturanpassning av militära plattformar. Forskningsfrågan adresseras från ett mili- tärt förmågecentrerat systemperspektiv med metoder från flera discipliner inom mi- litärvetenskapen. Resultatet har sammanställts från fyra separata studier: 1) av spek- tral design med hjälp av systematisk granskning av tidigare forskning, 2) av militär nytta med hjälp av en metod för konceptformering, 3) av modelleringen av en länk mellan spektral design och mått på militär nytta med hjälp av militär operationsana- lys, och, 4) av design av smyganpassade plattformar med hjälp av fallstudier. Resultatet från studierna bildar sammantaget med relaterad tidigare forskning från militärvetenskap, systemteknik och materialoptik ett ramverk till stöd för effektivare beslutsfattning. Det främsta bidraget till teoribildningen utgörs av ett förslag till koncept kallat militär nytta. Konceptet fångar hur nyttan med tekniska system, eller teknologier, bör kommuniceras i militära sammanhang. Militär nytta är här ett sam- manvägt mått bestående av militär effektivitet, av militär lämplighet och av över- komlighet. Andra bidrag förväntas stödja beslutsfattning direkt i praktiken; - den s.k. stegmodellen kan användas som mall vid kvantifiering av den militära ef- fektivitetsdimensionen vid värdering av den militära nyttan med spektral design; - användningen av stegmodellen har demonstrerats i fallet med smyganpassade at- tackflygplan; - ett sannolikhetsbaserat ramverk för överlevnadsuppskattningar har anpassats att användas som analysmetod, och till sist; - ett generiskt arbetsflöde med relevanta beslutssituationer där analysmetoden kan komma till nytta har identifierats genom studier av tidigare utvecklingsprojekt. Nyckelord: militär nytta, överlevnad, signaturanpassning, systemteknik, kamou- flage, smygteknik, spektral design, multispektral ii AKNOWLEDGEMENTS I feel privileged to have had this opportunity to write a second thesis, this time on a subject of relevance to a profession in
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