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Telecom Egypt Research Department Egypt – Telecoms Telecom Egypt Company Report 31 March 2009 The Cash Dispenser Buy We resume coverage on TE with a "Buy” recommendation. The stock Target Price (EGP) 20.94 trades at a 25.8% discount to peers on 2009e adjusted EV/EBITDA and Market Price (EGP)* 14.73 its stake in VFE is traded at a 41.4% discount to our fair value. Upside 42.2% Main growth drivers are TE’s stake in Vodafone Egypt (VFE) and the wholesale segment. TE offers decent FCF and dividend yields of 9.8% and 9.3% for 2009e. We Listed On EGX, LSE forecast dividend yield to reach 11.8% by 2012f. GDRs to Local Shares 1:5 Bloomberg Code ETEL EY Besides operating in a defensive sector, TE is enjoying a monopoly of Egypt’s fixed line RIC ETEL.CA market, has indirect exposure to the lucrative mobile market through its 44.95% equity stake in VFE and owns a hefty 59% market share of Egypt’s broadband market. TE also Enterprise Value (EGPm) 25,556 has direct exposure to the mobile market by being the incumbent, as mobile traffic goes Net Debt (EGPm) 411 through its infrastructure thereby increasing the contribution of the wholesale segment Market Cap. (EGPm) 25,145 (TE’s main revenue driver) to total revenues, and offsetting the decline in retail Market Cap. (USDm) 4,466 revenues due to the fixed to mobile substitution trend. Additionally, TE’s tariff rebalancing, introduced in 2H08, has partially offset the drop in retail revenues. Number of Shares (m) 1,707.1 Recently, the Ministry of Telecommunications has decided to postpone the offering of a Foreign Ownership Limit - second fixed line license for two years, a positive development for TE. Foreign Ownership Level - In a time when cash is king, TE provides us with a solid investment case given its strong cash flow generation ability, sound balance sheet, lack of significant future obligations, a cash position of EGP2.7 billion and a net debt/EBTIDA of 0.09x as of the end of 2008. As Avg. Daily Turnover (EGPm) 22.8 a result of de-leveraging and the lack of an acquisition target, we have assumed that TE Avg. Daily Turnover (USDm) 4.0 will return the excess cash generated to its shareholders. In line with this belief, TE’s management has proposed a DPS of EGP1.30 for 2008, the highest dividend payout in Shareholders Structure its history (80%), suggesting a dividend yield of 8.8%. We have maintained this level of Free Float 20% DPO going forward. TE also offers a FCF Yield of 9.8% for 2009e and we expect its FCFs Egyptian Government 80% to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% from 2010f-2012f. We believe that the financing of an acquisition is not an issue. Rather, finding a good target that fits TE’s criteria in the MENA region and the pricing of the deal are the real challenges. We estimate revenues to grow at a 2010f-2012f CAGR of 2.4%, and EPS to grow at a Price Performance Chart higher CAGR of 10.2%, due to TE’s profitable equity stake in VFE offsetting the drop in voice revenue contribution to total sales. VFE contributed 41.9% to TE’s profit before 26 tax in 2008, but we expect this contribution to drop to 39.9% in 2009e as it is expected 24 ETEL to be a tough year for mobile players. We believe that consensus is overestimating TE’s 22 20 HCMI 2009 growth and expect some downward revisions to estimates along the course of the 18 year. Our 2009e revenue growth is a negative 0.1% vs. consensus estimate of 6.2% 16 and TE’s guidance of a flat to 1% top line growth. Our EBITDA margin for 2009e is 14 12 46.1% vs. consensus estimate of 50.9% and TE’s guidance of an EBITDA margin in the 10 high 40s. 8 6 We resume coverage on TE with a "Buy" recommendation based on a SOTP valuation D-07 J-08 M-08 A-08 M-08 J-08 J -08 A-08 S-08 O-08 N-08 D-08 J-09 F-09 M-09 using a DCF approach which yielded a target price of EGP20.94 per share * Price as of March 29, 2009 (USD18.59/GDR), offering an upside potential of 42.2%. TE trades at a 25.8% discount to peers on an adjusted 2009e EV/EBITDA multiple (adjusted to VFE’s net debt and EBITDA). The stock also trades at a 5.7% discount to peers on 2009e PER at 9.1x. Key Performance Indicators (IFRS) Fiscal Year 08 09E 09C 10F 10C Revenues (EGP Mil.) 10,117 10,108 10,746 10,435 10,668 EBITDA (EGP Mil.) 4,674 4,656 5,464 4,801 5,206 EBITDA Margin* 46.2% 46.1% 50.9% 46.0% 48.7% Net Income (EGP Mil.) 2,621 2,764 3,262 3,139 3,562 NematAllah Choucri EPS (EGP) 1.54 1.62 1.91 1.84 2.09 +2 02 3749 6008 (Ext. 451) EPS Growth 10.1% 5.5% 12.6% 13.6% 9.2% [email protected] Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.09x -0.58x -0.21x -0.92x -0.49x P/E 9.59x 9.10x 7.71x 8.01x 7.06x May Khamis EV/EBITDA 5.47x 4.82x 4.67x 4.32x 4.84x +2 02 3749 6008 (Ext. 456) Adjusted EV/EBITDA 3.65x 3.15x - 2.80x - [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 8.8% 9.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.2% Free Cash Flow Yield 12.3% 9.8% 14.2% 11.0% 16.3% *Disclaimer See Page 16 * According to IFRS, employees’ appropriations are part of operating expenses leading to a lower EBITDA margin as compared to the one reported under EAS. E = HC's Estimates; F = HC's Forecasts; C = Consensus Estimates www.hc-si.com Egypt – Telecoms Financial Statements and Ratios (IFRS) EGP Million 2008* 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f Income Statement Retail Revenues 6,181 6,073 6,176 6,194 6,224 6,267 Wholesale Revenues 3,936 3,943 4,075 4,253 4,435 4,613 TE North Revenues - 93 185 185 185 185 Reported Revenue 10,117 10,108 10,435 10,633 10,844 11,066 Growth in Revenue (%) 1.2% (0.1%) 3.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% Total Operating Costs (excl. D&A) (5,011) (5,095) (5,369) (5,610) (5,880) (6,169) EBITDA 4,674 4,656 4,801 4,788 4,759 4,722 EBITDA Margin 46.2% 46.1% 46.0% 45.0% 43.9% 42.7% Depreciation & Amortization (2,739) (2,681) (2,595) (2,319) (2,200) (2,084) Operating Profit 1,896 1,975 2,206 2,469 2,559 2,638 Operating Margin 18.7% 19.5% 21.1% 23.2% 23.6% 23.8% Investment Income 1,312 1,347 1,384 1,336 1,417 1,508 Net Interest (112) 53 179 320 463 601 Profit Before Taxes (PBT) 3,134 3,375 3,769 4,125 4,439 4,747 Taxes (505) (602) (621) (669) (725) (777) Minority Interest (8) (8) (9) (11) (13) (15) Net Profit 2,621 2,764 3,139 3,444 3,701 3,955 Net Profit Margin 25.9% 27.3% 30.1% 32.4% 34.1% 35.7% Earnings Per Share (EPS) 1.54 1.62 1.84 2.02 2.17 2.32 Growth in EPS (%) 10.1% 5.5% 13.6% 9.7% 7.5% 6.9% Dividends Per Share (DPS) 1.30 1.38 1.47 1.61 1.73 1.85 Dividends Payout (%) 84.5% 85.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Balance Sheet Assets Intangible Assets 155 123 92 60 28 0 Tangible Assets 18,640 16,939 15,964 15,139 14,357 13,606 Investments 7,033 7,302 7,786 8,254 8,750 9,278 Total Fixed Assets 25,828 24,364 23,842 23,453 23,135 22,885 Total Current Assets 8,042 9,649 11,448 13,246 14,985 16,673 Total Current Liabilities 5,266 5,420 5,610 5,899 6,176 6,448 Total Long Term Liabilities 1,935 535 985 1,405 1,795 2,155 Minority Interest 38 46 56 67 80 94 Total Shareholder’s Equity 26,631 28,013 28,641 29,330 30,070 30,861 Key Ratios Net Debt/EBITDA 0.09x (0.58x) (0.92x) (1.28x) (1.64x) (2.00x) RoAE 10.1% 10.1% 11.1% 11.9% 12.5% 13.0% CAPEX to Sales 9.1% 16.2% 15.5% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% * We have adjusted 2008 EAS figures to reflect IFRS figures as the IFRS statements are not yet released. 2 Egypt – Telecoms Valuation We resume coverage with a “Buy” recommendation based on a target price of EGP20.94/share (59% fixed line business and 41% VFE), a 42% upside to market price. TE trades at a 25.8% and 5.7% discount to peers on 2009 adjusted EV/EBITDA and PER. TE’s stake in VFE is traded at a 41% discount to fair value and at a 26% discount on 2009e EV/EBITDA. We resume coverage on TE with a “Buy” recommendation, a 42% upside potential We resume coverage on Telecom Egypt with a "Buy" recommendation based on a SOTP valuation using a DCF approach which yielded a target price of EGP20.94/share (USD18.59/GDR), implying a 42.2% upside potential.
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