Patrick Gossage GUEST COLUMN BILLET Risky business

he decision made by some 5,000 new brand of Liberalism is what is need- has done the least to alienate them delegates at the Liberal leader- ed to lead the party back to the political when casting their subsequent ballots. T ship convention in December promised land. However, divisive, if Ability to win speaks to the one will be determined by the level of risk principled, positions on Afghanistan Liberal policy all delegates hold most dear they are willing to assume with their pre- and Quebec along with some glaring — winning again and decisively this time. ferred candidate. And make no mistake, examples of political inexperience dur- Delegates will be imagining the front-run- whether it is a policy, regional appeal, ing the campaign have elevated rhe risk ners taking on Harper in debates, facing experience or government record issue, factor and made the possibility of an the grinding weeks in which every word each of the four leading candidates car- Anybody-but-Ignatieff play that much and nuance is picked apart by their oppo- ries significant political risk for a party more likely. nent and being eviscerated by an Ottawa historically loath to take them. And the Gerard Kennedy — A tantalizing gallery who really have not yet had a go stakes have increased lately. choice for delegates looking for youth at the leadership candidates. That’s how quickly a few perceived and a centre-left pedigree, but Kennedy The other factor lurking in the back- missteps by the new government of has yet to hit his platform stride or make ground of a long day and night of horse- Stephen Harper have elevated the a breakthrough in Quebec and could be trading will be party unity. The ill-timed importance of this race. A party that hurt by a perception that he is the can- tomes of Eddie Goldenberg and Alfonso less than a year ago was defeated, divid- didate for “next time.” Ironically, the Gagliano have revived the bitter ed and devoid of fresh ideas can now same style of brokered convention that Chrétien-Martin feud that so damaged dream of electoral success — providing defeated Kennedy in the 1996 Ontario the Liberal brand. Fortunately for the it bets on a winning horse. Liberal leadership race may work to his party, for the first time in decades the advantage this time, as his smoothly Trudeau/Chrétien vs. Turner/Martin bat- hile none of the candidates rep- run campaign could result in him tle appears to have no natural successor. W resent a Trudeauvian mix of squeaking through as the compromise Finally, Liberals with a sense of his- charisma and public popularity, several choice in Montreal. tory may be wary of breaking two impor- nonetheless have demonstrated an abil- Bob Rae — Rae has demonstrated his tant traditions the party has followed ity to articulate clear policy positions on main strength of campaign experience, since choosing Sir Wilfrid Laurier. The a variety of complex issues. While many which could be a real asset if the Liberals first tradition is well known: the Liberals still prefer the maddening mushy mid- are thrown into a snap election. He will have always alternated between fran- dle of Liberalism, some candidates have give the best speech at the convention cophone and anglophone leaders. The staked out highly controversial and con- and perhaps fear of his baggage (which second is less well known — Liberals trasting views, particularly on Quebec kept his Ontario delegate count low) will have never chosen a leader without fed- and Canada’s role in Afghanistan. evaporate. Still, there is palpable confu- eral cabinet experience. Only one of the Four candidates have emerged sion, if not downright anger, among four front-running candidates fits either with enough support to be considered many Ontario Liberals that a guy who of those requirements and he in fact fits potential winners. They are: they campaigned against in three both — Stéphane Dion. Stéphane Dion — No one doubts provincial elections may soon be award- So these are the key considerations Dion’s campaign ability or durability ed the party’s ultimate prize. for delegates in our view. Watch them — he has the energy and determined play out in Montreal. Watch them smarts. Dion has had success on both fter assessing the merits of each of shape what candidates say in the con- an old Liberal issue, unity, and an A the remaining candidates, what the test of their lives. See if delegates will emerging one, the environment. But decision by the delegates on the conven- hold their breath and what level of risk while he may be Captain Canada, he tion floor will really come down to is they will tolerate. has proven to have only moderate sup- likeability and ability to win, as well as port outside Quebec, and raises the who appears to be the party-uniter. Patrick Gossage, president of Media question of whether the country will The likeability factor reflects the Profile, a Toronto communications con- tolerate another captain from Quebec. reality of a brokered convention where sulting firm, was press secretary to Prime Michael Ignatieff — old-guard disgruntled delegates supporting can- Minister Trudeau. Long-time Liberal Liberals supporting Ignatieff are taking a didates who drop off early will be look- activist Christopher Holcroft assisted in calculated risk that a confident, energetic ing to the leadership candidate who the preparation of this article.

POLICY OPTIONS 73 NOVEMBER 2006