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STRATEGEAST WESTERNIZATION INDEX 2020 ABOUT STRATEGEAST StrategEast is a strategic center whose goal is to reinforce the values of rule of law and private property protection in Eurasian and Baltic countries through the transition from natural resources-based to knowledge- driven economy. Our work is focused on the 14 countries, which proclaimed or restored their independence after the collapse of the USSR: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. StrategEast is a registered 501(c)3 organization based in the United States. LEARN MORE AT OUR WEBSITE: www.StrategEast.org THIS REPORT Serdar Aitakov Parviz Mullojonov (Mullojanov) WAS WRITTEN BY: Ilvija Bruge Boris Navasardian Alyona Getmanchuk Dr. Adil Nurmakov Gubad Ibadoghlu Sergiy Solodkyy Tamerlan Ibraimov Agniete Pocyte Alisher Ilkhamov Maili Vilson Leonid Litra Andrei Yahorau Salome Minesashvili © 2020 StrategEast. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-0-578-63441-8 StrategEast Westernization Index 2020 is available on our website: www.StrategEast.org StrategEast Concept: Michael Sheitelman 1900 K Street, NW Project Coordinator: Lidia Shavlo Suite 100 Editor: Courtney Dobson Washington, D. C. 20006 Design: Vitaly Tchirkov Page Proof: Mark Kanarsky [email protected] www.StrategEast.org 4 STRATEGEAST WESTERNIZATION INDEX | About STRATEGEAST TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 6 Index Methodology 8 Scores 14 Cross-Country Analysis 16 Westernization Index of Post-Soviet States 42 Armenia 43 Azerbaijan 51 Belarus 57 Estonia 64 Georgia 69 Kazakhstan 75 Kyrgyzstan 83 Latvia 89 Lithuania 95 Moldova 101 Tajikistan 108 Turkmenistan 114 Ukraine 121 Uzbekistan 128 Bibliography 135 Authors’ Biographies 176 STRATEGEAST WESTERNIZATION INDEX 5 INTRODUCTION 2018, when the Index was launched, many post-So- viet countries experienced backsets. By highlighting this, the Index draws much-need attention not only to the region’s transition itself. It also reminds us of the challenges that remain for European integration and for efforts to build a Eu- ro-Atlantic order of peace. Sure: the European Union and NATO integrated many Eastern European states, thereby contributing to peace, democracy, and pros- perity in the post-Soviet region. Yet, many countries are still struggling to find their place in the European Photo by MSC/Michael Kuhlmann order and the Western world. In this regard, the Index is also a forceful remind- Dear Reader, er of the West’s responsibility for the future of the The publication of the 2020 Westernization In- region and its ongoing transformation — and of dex, which documents the state of transition of 14 the fact that if the West fails to act, other powers post-Soviet countries towards Western political and will not hesitate to jump in. By deciding not to open economic standards, comes at a very timely mo- accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, ment. The Index is released just a few months after the EU has certainly not lived up to its responsibility. we celebrated a truly remarkable anniversary — re- But the greatest stumbling block to regional markable for the post-Soviet region covered in the transformation and to efforts to build a durable Eu- Index, and for Europe as a whole: Thirty years ago, ropean security order is posed by the dismal state on November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall came down — of Western relations with a country that is absent and with it vanished the dividing line that had sepa- from the Index: Russia. It is a pity that the vision of a rated both Germany and Europe for several decades. ‘Common European Home,’ as expressed by former This moment, many believed, would be the start- Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, never material- ing point of a comprehensive transformation pro- ized — a home to all including Russia. What began cess. A process that would see post-Soviet countries, in 1989 in Germany still remains incomplete. The including Russia, embrace Western standards of de- objective of “a Europe whole, free and at peace” as mocracy, rule of law, and human rights protection. A formulated by US Presidents George H.W. Bush and process that would eventually give rise to a pan-Euro- Bill Clinton has still not come to fruition. pean security architecture, a durable order of peace. In documenting the state of transition of the And in fact, the 2020 Westernization Index doc- post-Soviet region, the Westernization Index is a force- uments that much has been achieved in the past ful reminder of the aspirations that came alive in 1989. 30 years: Many post-Soviet countries have moved In reading the results, we should be reminded of the towards more democratic and market-oriented in- pan-European project that we embarked on almost 30 stitutions. But the report also demonstrates that years ago — and of the merit of continuing this journey. much remains to be done: From ensuring individual freedoms and independent courts to protecting hu- Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, man rights — the process of transition that started Chairman of the Munich 30 years ago is far from completed. And there is Security Conferencee nothing automatic about this process. In fact, since 6 STRATEGEAST WESTERNIZATION INDEX | Introduction financial and analytical) began viewing this space as a single region, applying their models and solutions, which were previously applied only to one particular country or group of countries, to the entire region, thus significantly increasing the effectiveness of coop- eration these Western institutes have with the region. The new edition of this Index, released two years after our first attempt to measure the degree of the region’s Westernization, retains its unique features: • it is still the only report to analyze the 14 coun- tries of the PSNR region as a whole; Photo by Alexander Kozachenko • it measures each country’s wholesale integration into the Western world across many sectors; While presenting the second edition of the West- • it is prepared for the West by experts from the ernization Index for post-Soviet states, I would like to region. remind the reader about the story of its inception. However, the present edition of our Index also We at StrategEast conceived this Index as a product has a fundamentally different quality: it now reveals for internal use, as a measuring instrument allow- not only a static but also a dynamic picture of West- ing us to apply our efforts in the most efficient way ernization in the PSNR region. The second edition when analyzing the Westernization of 14 countries shows trends in political, economic, and legal West- which gained or restored independence after the ernization, and by extension, the effectiveness of ef- breakup of the Soviet Union. And also, to find the forts by Western institutions operating in the region. points for application of our efforts and measure The Westernization Index dynamics indicate where their result. But two years ago, after we saw the find- we have been able to succeed, where even great- ings produced by experts who worked on preparing er efforts must be applied, and where we perhaps the Westernization Index, we decided to make this even chose the wrong way. Index a public product—and this decision has paid Nevertheless, being one of the first to see the off. During the intervening two years, StrategEast findings of the 2020 Westernization Index, I can as- has released a large number of reports, analytical sure you that overall, we—Western institutes work- articles, and policy papers, but the Westernization ing with post-Soviet states—have chosen the right Index remains our standard-bearing product—the way. The Westernization dynamics revealed by the only product presenting at a glance, the entire pic- present edition of our Index indicates that this region ture of what is going on in the region we analyze. not only has a common past but also a common fu- During the past two years, the Index became a ture, and whether this region—as a whole—moves useful tool for a large number of public institutes, in the “right” direction: toward traditional Western both in the Post-Soviet, Not-Russian (PSNR) region it- values, such as transparency, the rule of law, and self, and in the West, where it is used by internation- private property protection. al financial institutes working with post-Soviet states and where Western think-tanks and analysts can base Sincerely, Anatoly Motkin their findings on its data and conclusions. Thanks to Founder and President, the advent of the Index, which considers 14 post-So- StrategEast viet countries as a single space, many institutes (both STRATEGEAST WESTERNIZATION INDEX | Introduction 7 INDEX METHODOLOGY HOW THE SCORE IS DETERMINED Westernization is a process of social change whereby societies adopt Western patterns of political development, legal functioning, economic relations, cultural discourse, and lifestyle. The Westerniza- tion Index is a tool aimed at measuring the level to which the post-So- viet countries and societies, except the Russian Federation, have adopt- ed, accepted, or were permeated by the Western culture in all the key areas for each country. The Index is based on a series of elements and benchmarks that helped us to assess the adoption and implementa- tion of the Western model by looking at five key areas: 1. Political Westernization. 2. Economic Westernization. 3. Legal Westernization. 4. Language and cultural Westernization. 5. Westernization of lifestyle. We limited the Index to the five areas we believe are most critical to examine, although we accept that we could have expanded this to include even more areas for even more robust analysis. Each area (which has multiple sub areas) is weighted differently within the In- dex to capture the relative importance of each sector to the overall Western transition. The weight of each of the first three areas is 25%, the fourth 15%, and the fifth 10%.