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Sbmintel.com [email protected] @sbmintelligence Facebook.com/sbmintel OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE INTRODUCTION On October 10 2020, Ondo State governor, Rotimi Akeredolu aims to match Olusegun Mimiko's record and become the second person to be voted for a second term at the Alagbaka Government House. For him, it is almost a sense of deja vu as his opponents are familiar faces. Eyitayo Jegede lost to him in 2016, while Agboola Ajayi was his running mate four years ago. This report aims to look at the key factors likely to influence voting in the gubernatorial elections in Ondo State. The state has three Senatorial Districts, 10 Federal House of Representative seats A BRIEF HISTORY OF ONDO and 23 State House of Assembly Seats. The three Senatorial Districts are Ondo North made up of Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South-East, Akoko Ondo State was created on 3 February South West, Owola and Ose Local Government Areas; Ondo Central consisting of 1976 when the Western State was Akure South, Akure North, Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo West and Ondo East; and Ondo split into gun, ondo and Oyo states. South, which consists of Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and Ile Oluji/Oke A subsequent state creation exercise Igbo LGAs. The distribution of LGAs according to senatorial districts is shown excised what is now known as Ekiti below: State from Ondo. The state is made up of 18 Local Government Areas, and is Table I: LGAs by Senatorial Districts in Ondo bounded in the north by Ekiti and Kogi S/N Senatorial District LGAs States, in the east by Edo State; in the 1. Ondo North Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko west by Osun and Ogun states and in South-East, Akoko South West, Ose and Owola the south by the Atlantic Ocean. 2 Ondo Central Akure South, Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo East and Ondo West 3 Ondo South Ese Odo, Ilaje, Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo, Irele, Odigbo and Okitipupa 1 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE Political History in Ondo As part of the Western Region, what is today referred to as Ondo State has a political history that dates back to the anti- colonial struggles under the influence of the Action Group (1951-1966). During the Second Republic (1979-1983), by which time the state had been created, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), AG's successor in the South West, continued to dominate the politics of Ondo. During the period, Michael Adekunle Ajasin of the UPN won the governorship election of 1979. However, by the second election of 1983, Akinwole Michael Omoboriowo, Ajasin's deputy from 1979-1983, decamped to the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the ruling party at the centre, to contest the governorship race with Ajasin. As it turned out, Omoboriowo was officially declared the winner of the governorship election by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO). The declaration led to an unprecedented level of post-election violence across the state, reminiscent of the Operation Weti e post-election violence of the 1960s. The state was, as famed columnist Dare Babarinsa put it, 'The House of War' during the period. Mr Ajasin of the UPN eventually reclaimed his mandate and Mr Omoboriowo fled the state. The people of Ondo State were at the epicentre of post-electoral violence stemming from perceptions of the will of the people being shortchanged by politicians in these two instances During the short-lived Third Republic (1992-1993), Bamidele Olumilua of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won the governorship election. His reign was, however, cut short with the abortion of that democratic experiment following the annulment of 12 June 1993 presidential election by the Ibrahim Babangida regime. Following the return of democracy in 1999, Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) was elected Ondo State Governor. Mr Adefarati lost in his re-election bid in 2003 when Olusegun Agagu of the PDP was elected the governor. Dr Agagu, who was earlier declared to have won his reelection bid in 2007, eventually lost to Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party (LP), who was a member of his inner cabinet, after protracted legal battles over the winner of the election. 2 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE The race for the governorship in the 20 October 2012 election The 2016 governorship election saw Mr Akeredolu was contested among three major parties, the Action victorious at the second time of asking, beating Eyitayo Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Labour Party (LP) and the PDP. Jegede of the PDP and Olusola Oke of the AD. It is The spate of decamping, especially from the LP to other important that the dramatis personae in the 2012 parties, added more intensity to the race. Since at that time, no governorship election remain key players. Although Mr governor/party had been able to win a second term in the state, Mimiko is no longer contesting having done so and won twice, he is believed to have been very central in the determination of his successor, showing a strong 2012 Ondo Governorship election preference for Mr Jegede over the businessman, Jimoh Ibrahim. Akeredolu Ale, the APC candidate, was also the Olusegun Mimiko 260,197 candidate of ACN in 2012. Olusola Oke, one of those who (LP) contested the primary on the platform of APC, but lost out and defected to pick the ticket for the AD, was the PDP Olusola Oke (PDP) 155,961 candidate in the 2012 election. These added interesting dimensions to the 2016 gubernatorial election. Rotimi Akeredolu (ACN) 143,512 2016 Ondo Governorship election 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Rotimi Akeredolu 244,842 (APC) many believed that Mr Mimiko of the LP would lose to another Eyitayo Jegede 150,380 candidate. However, as it turned out, Mr Mimiko defied the (PDP) odds and made history as the first governor to win a second term in the state. This feat was attributed to an alleged Olusola Oke (AD) 126,889 agreement between Mr Mimiko and President Goodluck Jonathan, which required that the former defect to the PDP 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 after the election; this later happened in 2014. 3 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE Setting the stage for 2020 4 ADC Adelegan Adedapo Oluwaseyi 58 Olaitan Oladeinde Bolaji Bolanle 42 Rotimi Akeredolu was duly returned as the APC candidate for the elections, but his deputy, Agboola Ajayi had ambitions to 5 ADP Martin Kunle Olateru-Olagbegi 62 Akintoye Cornelius 44 contest, and decamped to the PDP, only to lose the primary to Eyitato Jegede. Mr Ajayi decamped again, this time to the 6 APC Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu 64 Zenith Labour Party and secured the ticket there. In a sense, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa 55 history appears to be repeating itself. In 1983, Adekunle 7 APGA Olowoloba Dele 41 Ajasin's deputy, Akinwole Omoboriowo, decamped to the Babalola Aderemi 40 ruling NPN to contest against his former principal. 8 APM Aminu Akeem Olanrewaju 55 Olusola Oke who was formerly of the AD in 2016 and the PDP Omoyeni Taiwo Seyi 58 in 2012, returned to the APC to contest against the incumbent 9 APP Adesanya Olaoluwa 52 and lost. Akirinlola Adewale Stephen 40 Parties and Candidates in the 2020 Ondo Gubernatorial 10 LP Okunade Taiwo 50 Ibitoye Adebowale 43 Election 11 NNPP Ojajuni Joseph Eniola 42 The race for the Alagbaka Government House has 17 political Aroge Bayode Sunday 37 parties fielding candidates. The candidates are: 12 NRM Funmilayo Jenyo Ataunoko 47 S/N Party Candidate/Running Mate Age Maimisebi Adetutu 35 1 A Rotimi Adeleye Akindejoye 40 13 PDP Eyitayo Olayinka Jegede 59 Akinyemi Bibiresanmi 39 Gboluga Dele Ikengboju 53 2 AA Joshua Oluwafemi Adewole 67 14 PRP Babatunde Francis Alli 46 Ogunleye Adegbola Williams 60 Oladele Paul Oluwasesan 40 3 AAC Adeleye Adekunle Peter 57 Samuel Tope Omotosho 35 4 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE 15 SDP Fasua Peter Oyeleye 59 Ondo Central Ajayi Rachel Olufunmilayo 62 LGA ACN LP PDP 16 YPP Ojon Dotun 38 Akure North 5,671 10,857 4,916 Hajarat Dupe Usman 48 Akure South 11,955 49,915 12,467 17 ZLP Agboola Alfred Ajayi 52 Adegbenro Gboye Emmanuel 49 Ifedore 5,522 11,062 3,978 Ile Oluji/Okeigbo 9,061 11,945 6,521 Ondo West 7,225 41,280 6,669 Ondo East 2,750 8, 404 3,933 Total 42,184 125,059 38,484 Voting patterns 2012 Governorship election results Ondo South LGA ACN LP PDP Ondo North Idanre 5,111 15,990 5,923 Odigbo 14,740 13,748 12,272 LGA ACN LP PDP Okitipupa 8,495 11,968 21,024 Akoko North East 8,693 12,153 6,847 Irele 5,066 9, 435 9,341 Akoko North West 9,138 11,675 7,847 Ese Odo 2, 987 9,137 7, 295 Akoko South East 3,330 6,316 3,425 Ilaje 5,793 8, 538 19, 281 Akoko South West 13,625 11,833 12,331 Total 39,205 50,843 Owo Local Govt 17, 967 14,870 6,058 Ose Local Govt 6,376 11,071 5, 833 Total 41,162 67,918 36,508 5 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE 2016 Governorship election results Ondo South Ondo North LGA ACN LP PDP Idanre 4,836 10,981 7,575 LGA AD APC PDP Odigbo 8,187 17,581 8,668 Akoko North-West 4,831 13,048 6,049 Okitipupa 16,294 14,930 8,031 Akoko North-East 5,367 13,645 6,496 Irele 6,710 11,138 5,907 Akoko South-East 270 6,384 4,239 Ese Odo 3,562 10,700 8,701 Akoko South-West 9,359 9,892 7,691 Ilaje 22,789 7,030 5,007 Ose 4,272 13,454 6,520 Total 62,378 72,360 43,889 Owo 2,469 32,988 4,241 Total 26,568 89,411 35,236 Turnout Ondo Central The turnout for the Ondo elections is expected to be lower than in the last two cycles, in line with wider trends at the LGA AD APC PDP national and state levels.