October 2020 DISCLAIMER

The data contained in this report is only up-to-date as at Friday, 2 October 2020. Some of it is subject to change during the natural course of events. SB Morgen cannot accept liability in respect of any errors or omissions that may follow such events that may invalidate data contained herein.

Our researchers employed methods such as desk research and polling to collate the available data. Our editors sifted through the data and prepared the report, using various proprietary tools to fact-check and copy edit the information gathered.

Our publicly released reports are formatted for easy and quick reading, and may not necessarily contain all the data that SB Morgen gathered during a given survey. Complete datasets can be made available on request.

Sbmintel.com [email protected] @sbmintelligence Facebook.com/sbmintel OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

INTRODUCTION

On October 10 2020, governor, aims to match 's record and become the second person to be voted for a second term at the Alagbaka Government House. For him, it is almost a sense of deja vu as his opponents are familiar faces. Eyitayo Jegede lost to him in 2016, while Agboola Ajayi was his running mate four years ago. This report aims to look at the key factors likely to influence voting in the gubernatorial elections in Ondo State.

The state has three Senatorial Districts, 10 Federal House of Representative seats A BRIEF HISTORY OF ONDO and 23 State House of Assembly Seats. The three Senatorial Districts are Ondo North made up of Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South-East, Akoko Ondo State was created on 3 February South West, Owola and Ose Local Government Areas; Ondo Central consisting of 1976 when the Western State was Akure South, Akure North, Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo West and Ondo East; and Ondo split into gun, ondo and Oyo states. South, which consists of Odigbo, Irele, Ilaje, Ese Odo, Okitipupa and Ile Oluji/Oke A subsequent state creation exercise Igbo LGAs. The distribution of LGAs according to senatorial districts is shown excised what is now known as Ekiti below: State from Ondo. The state is made up of 18 Local Government Areas, and is Table I: LGAs by Senatorial Districts in Ondo bounded in the north by Ekiti and Kogi S/N Senatorial District LGAs States, in the east by Edo State; in the 1. Ondo North Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko west by Osun and Ogun states and in South-East, Akoko South West, Ose and Owola the south by the Atlantic Ocean. 2 Ondo Central Akure South, Akure North; Ifedore/Igaraoke, Ondo East and Ondo West

3 Ondo South Ese Odo, Ilaje, Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo, Irele, Odigbo and Okitipupa

1 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

Political History in Ondo

As part of the Western Region, what is today referred to as Ondo State has a political history that dates back to the anti- colonial struggles under the influence of the Action Group (1951-1966).

During the Second Republic (1979-1983), by which time the state had been created, the Unity Party of (UPN), AG's successor in the South West, continued to dominate the politics of Ondo. During the period, of the UPN won the governorship election of 1979. However, by the second election of 1983, Akinwole Michael Omoboriowo, Ajasin's deputy from 1979-1983, decamped to the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), the ruling party at the centre, to contest the governorship race with Ajasin. As it turned out, Omoboriowo was officially declared the winner of the governorship election by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO). The declaration led to an unprecedented level of post-election violence across the state, reminiscent of the Operation Weti e post-election violence of the 1960s. The state was, as famed columnist Dare Babarinsa put it, 'The House of War' during the period. Mr Ajasin of the UPN eventually reclaimed his mandate and Mr Omoboriowo fled the state. The people of Ondo State were at the epicentre of post-electoral violence stemming from perceptions of the will of the people being shortchanged by politicians in these two instances

During the short-lived Third Republic (1992-1993), Bamidele Olumilua of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won the governorship election. His reign was, however, cut short with the abortion of that democratic experiment following the annulment of 12 June 1993 presidential election by the Ibrahim Babangida regime. Following the return of democracy in 1999, of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) was elected Ondo State Governor. Mr Adefarati lost in his re-election bid in 2003 when of the PDP was elected the governor. Dr Agagu, who was earlier declared to have won his reelection bid in 2007, eventually lost to Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party (LP), who was a member of his inner cabinet, after protracted legal battles over the winner of the election.

2 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

The race for the governorship in the 20 October 2012 election The 2016 governorship election saw Mr Akeredolu was contested among three major parties, the Action victorious at the second time of asking, beating Eyitayo Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Labour Party (LP) and the PDP. Jegede of the PDP and Olusola Oke of the AD. It is The spate of decamping, especially from the LP to other important that the dramatis personae in the 2012 parties, added more intensity to the race. Since at that time, no governorship election remain key players. Although Mr governor/party had been able to win a second term in the state, Mimiko is no longer contesting having done so and won twice, he is believed to have been very central in the determination of his successor, showing a strong 2012 Ondo Governorship election preference for Mr Jegede over the businessman, Jimoh Ibrahim. Akeredolu Ale, the APC candidate, was also the

Olusegun Mimiko 260,197 candidate of ACN in 2012. Olusola Oke, one of those who (LP) contested the primary on the platform of APC, but lost out and defected to pick the ticket for the AD, was the PDP Olusola Oke (PDP) 155,961 candidate in the 2012 election. These added interesting dimensions to the 2016 gubernatorial election.

Rotimi Akeredolu (ACN) 143,512 2016 Ondo Governorship election

0 100,000 200,000 300,000

Rotimi Akeredolu 244,842 (APC) many believed that Mr Mimiko of the LP would lose to another Eyitayo Jegede 150,380 candidate. However, as it turned out, Mr Mimiko defied the (PDP) odds and made history as the first governor to win a second term in the state. This feat was attributed to an alleged Olusola Oke (AD) 126,889 agreement between Mr Mimiko and President Goodluck

Jonathan, which required that the former defect to the PDP 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 after the election; this later happened in 2014.

3 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

Setting the stage for 2020 4 ADC Adelegan Adedapo Oluwaseyi 58 Olaitan Oladeinde Bolaji Bolanle 42 Rotimi Akeredolu was duly returned as the APC candidate for the elections, but his deputy, Agboola Ajayi had ambitions to 5 ADP Martin Kunle Olateru-Olagbegi 62 Akintoye Cornelius 44 contest, and decamped to the PDP, only to lose the primary to Eyitato Jegede. Mr Ajayi decamped again, this time to the 6 APC Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu 64 Zenith Labour Party and secured the ticket there. In a sense, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa 55 history appears to be repeating itself. In 1983, Adekunle 7 APGA Olowoloba Dele 41 Ajasin's deputy, Akinwole Omoboriowo, decamped to the Babalola Aderemi 40 ruling NPN to contest against his former principal. 8 APM Aminu Akeem Olanrewaju 55 Olusola Oke who was formerly of the AD in 2016 and the PDP Omoyeni Taiwo Seyi 58 in 2012, returned to the APC to contest against the incumbent 9 APP Adesanya Olaoluwa 52 and lost. Akirinlola Adewale Stephen 40

Parties and Candidates in the 2020 Ondo Gubernatorial 10 LP Okunade Taiwo 50 Ibitoye Adebowale 43 Election 11 NNPP Ojajuni Joseph Eniola 42 The race for the Alagbaka Government House has 17 political Aroge Bayode Sunday 37 parties fielding candidates. The candidates are: 12 NRM Funmilayo Jenyo Ataunoko 47 S/N Party Candidate/Running Mate Age Maimisebi Adetutu 35

1 A Rotimi Adeleye Akindejoye 40 13 PDP Eyitayo Olayinka Jegede 59 Akinyemi Bibiresanmi 39 Gboluga Dele Ikengboju 53

2 AA Joshua Oluwafemi Adewole 67 14 PRP Babatunde Francis Alli 46 Ogunleye Adegbola Williams 60 Oladele Paul Oluwasesan 40

3 AAC Adeleye Adekunle Peter 57 Samuel Tope Omotosho 35

4 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

15 SDP Fasua Peter Oyeleye 59 Ondo Central Ajayi Rachel Olufunmilayo 62 LGA ACN LP PDP 16 YPP Ojon Dotun 38 Akure North 5,671 10,857 4,916 Hajarat Dupe Usman 48 Akure South 11,955 49,915 12,467 17 ZLP Agboola Alfred Ajayi 52 Adegbenro Gboye Emmanuel 49 Ifedore 5,522 11,062 3,978 Ile Oluji/Okeigbo 9,061 11,945 6,521 Ondo West 7,225 41,280 6,669 Ondo East 2,750 8, 404 3,933 Total 42,184 125,059 38,484 Voting patterns 2012 Governorship election results Ondo South LGA ACN LP PDP Ondo North Idanre 5,111 15,990 5,923 Odigbo 14,740 13,748 12,272 LGA ACN LP PDP Okitipupa 8,495 11,968 21,024 Akoko North East 8,693 12,153 6,847 Irele 5,066 9, 435 9,341 Akoko North West 9,138 11,675 7,847 Ese Odo 2, 987 9,137 7, 295 Akoko South East 3,330 6,316 3,425 Ilaje 5,793 8, 538 19, 281 Akoko South West 13,625 11,833 12,331 Total 39,205 50,843 Local Govt 17, 967 14,870 6,058 Ose Local Govt 6,376 11,071 5, 833 Total 41,162 67,918 36,508

5 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

2016 Governorship election results Ondo South

Ondo North LGA ACN LP PDP Idanre 4,836 10,981 7,575 LGA AD APC PDP Odigbo 8,187 17,581 8,668 Akoko North-West 4,831 13,048 6,049 Okitipupa 16,294 14,930 8,031 Akoko North-East 5,367 13,645 6,496 Irele 6,710 11,138 5,907 Akoko South-East 270 6,384 4,239 Ese Odo 3,562 10,700 8,701 Akoko South-West 9,359 9,892 7,691 Ilaje 22,789 7,030 5,007 Ose 4,272 13,454 6,520 Total 62,378 72,360 43,889 Owo 2,469 32,988 4,241 Total 26,568 89,411 35,236 Turnout

Ondo Central The turnout for the Ondo elections is expected to be lower than in the last two cycles, in line with wider trends at the LGA AD APC PDP national and state levels. The just-concluded elections in Edo - Ondo's neighbour to the East - saw a turnout of only Akure North 4,123 10, 710 6, 498 27.5% of registered voters. It would be little surprise if a Akure South 12,270 25,797 25,005 similar outcome was recorded, especially with heightened Ifedore 4,629 10,958 6,747 tension in the state due to the competitive nature of the Ile Oluji/Okeigbo 4,525 10,681 8,306 election. Voters may opt to stay away if there is a credible Ondo West 7,154 20,672 17,382 chance of violence. Ondo East 2,742 4,253 7,317 Total 31,320 72,361 64,757 2012 Ondo elections turnout: 38% 2015 Presidential election turnout: 43.60% 2016 Ondo elections turnout: 35% 2019 Presidential election turnout: 34.75%

6 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

during Ondo Council election Tension has been building in the state over the last several 7 07/09/2020 Akure Political thugs laid siege to the Ondo State weeks, with clashes between PDP and APC supporters, as well House Legislative Complex. The suspected thugs numbering over 100 were sighted at the as plenty of attacks on the press. The most highly publicised main gate of the Assembly complex with their of the clashes took place on 16 September in Oba-Akoko, vehicles parked along the road leading to the Akoko South-West Local Government, in which 5 were complex . 8 10/09/2020 Idanre A middle-aged man identified as Taye was killed injured. Both campaigns have also traded blames over who is by hoodlums suspected to be working for the responsible. All Progressives Congress. The deceased was a staunch supporter of the Zenith Labour Party, 9 16/09/2020 Akoko South Ondo PDP supporters attacked in Oba-Akoko The potential for violence, as mentioned above, could further West depress turnout 10 29/09/2020 Owo Political thugs injured no fewer than ten per- sons, destroyed vehicles and other property in the town. In all no fewer than 20 vehicles were Electoral violence incidents destroyed, several motorcycles burnt.

S/N Date Location Incident 1 07/07/2020 Akoko South Gunmen abduct two aides of Ondo politician East 2 25/07/2020 Akure Youths suspected to be students believed to PDP momentum? be working for the reelection of Gov. Akeredolu of Ondo state unleashed mayhem on the campus of the Adeyemi Agagu University of Science While Mr Akeredolu is the incumbent, the PDP remains and Technology (OAUSTECH), They were strong in Ondo State. Atiku Abubakar won the state in the alleged to have attempted to force some stu- dents of the institutions to endorse Governor 2019 presidential elections, and the PDP holds two of the Akeredolu for second term but the students state's three senate seats (Ondo Central and South) as well declined, hence the attack on them. as four of the 10 seats that the state has in the House of 3 19/08/2020 Idanre Six injured when hoodlums attacked Ondo SDP secretariat Representatives. In 2019, Mr Atiku also won in Edo State. 4 20/08/2020 Ondo West Many injured as APC, ADC supporters clash in That state is now in the PDP's column at the governorship Yaba. level. 5 22/08/2020 Ifedore Thugs attack PDP ward chairman in Igbara Oke during Ondo Council election

7 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

After losing the Presidency in 2015 and 2019, as well as several This is the pattern that Agboola Ajayi is looking to break. Mr governorships, there is a sense of momentum about the PDP Ajayi aims to succeed where Olusola Oke failed in 2016 and once more. Godwin Obaseki's exit from the APC was a huge 2012. Whether the Zenith Labour Party is the best platform own-goal for the ruling party, and their subsequent actions led on which to do this is another matter. to Edo State entering the PDP column for the first time since 2007. The PDP will be looking to build on this. Former two-term governor, Olusegun Mimiko's stature in the state is not in doubt, but his capacity to win elections, both for himself and others across the state may be. The Atiku of PDP won Ondo in 2019 Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) was formed in 2018, but the structure could not deliver victory for the former governor as he tried to win the Ondo Central Senate seat. In fact, he

Atiku 275,901 came in third behind Ayo Akinyelure of the PDP and Tayo Alasoadura of the APC.

Buhari 241,769 Ondo Centrel Senate election, 2019

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Ayo Akinyelure (PDP)

Ajayi's challenge Tayo Alasoadura (APC) Of the six men who have ever been elected governor of Ondo Olusegun Mimiko State, only Olusegun Agagu hailed from the Ondo South (ZLP) Senatorial District. He stayed in office for just one term, after his re-election was overturned on appeal. All the other 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 governors have been from either the North or Central Senatorial districts.

8 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

Not even Mr Mimiko is immune from the challenges of taking Perhaps more importantly, an increase in school fees for on two major parties with significant name recognition and university students, the ending of a shuttle bus programme resources, the same challenge Agboola Ajayi will also face in for school children, and an end to free maternal care in the order to achieve his ambition of being governor. state have proved to be controversial and unpopular decisions. In backing Mr Ajayi, the Ondo election is being framed by some as the last battle for Mr Mimiko's political relevance. Thus, Mr Akeredolu's opponents have painted his administration as 'elitist' and 'anti-people'. The extent to Akeredolu's popularity which that is true will soon be known. The extent of the incumbent's popularity, or lack thereof, remains a matter of concern for the APC. Usually, returning governors are given tickets with no more than token opposition, but in Mr Akeredolu's case, there were 12 challengers in the primaries. This could be a pointer to the fact that all is not well within the APC in Ondo State. The Amotekun effect The Western Nigeria Security Network, codenamed One of the main charges against Mr Akeredolu's administration Operation Amotekun was formed by all six governors of the is that he has made governance a 'family affair', neglecting those South-West in January 2020. The immediate reason for its in the party who played roles in his success in 2016. According to formation was the murder of Funke Olakunrin, the daughter these people, choice roles are given to non-indigenes, usually of Afenifere leader Reuben Fasoranti, in July 2019. By all connected to his wife, Betty Anyanwu, an Igbo woman from Imo accounts, she was killed by Fulani herdsmen. Incidentally, State, to the detriment of 'sons of the soil'. she was killed in Ondo on her way to Lagos. Perhaps Mr Akeredolu also stands accused of disrespect of traditional because of this fact, and also the upcoming elections, Mr rulers, having had a series of run-ins with monarchs in Akoko, Akeredolu has gone headlong into setting up the Ondo arm Odigbo and Okitipupa. These issues have remained of the network, inaugurating them on 11 August 2020 after unresolved, and they could impact his chances at the polls. signing the bill into law on 5 March.

9 OCTOBER 2020 I CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE

Conclusion There have been a number of arrests of herders by Amotekun in Akure South. The Ondo election will be a three horse Despite that, kidnapping of travellers race yet again, and promises to be an within the state and its major transit intriguing contest. What remains to be highways has continued unabated. The seen is whether the inability of the logical explanation for this would be the opposition PDP and ZLP to unite will see absence of superior firepower and lack of Rotimi Akeredolu return as governor. operational intelligence arising from the Rising incidents of violence across the police's unwillingness to cooperate with state will depress turnout even further, the corps. an event that will raise issues of legitimacy. A failure to keep the peace during campaigns will scare more people away from the polls, and this is not good for Nigeria's democracy.

10 About SBM

SBM Intel is an Africa focused geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm focused on addressing the critical need for political, social, economic and market data, and big data analytics. We employ various methods of data collection. Our Data Collection Methodology team advises on data collection methods for all ONS social and business surveys. With clients both within the business and the wider government community, we aim to provide expert advice on data collection procedures and carry out research leading to improvements in survey quality.

Since 2013, we have provided data analytics and strategic communication solutions to clients across various sectors in Nigeria, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Kenya, South Africa, the UK, France and the United States.

Sbmintel.com [email protected] @sbmintelligence Facebook.com/sbmintel