Internet and Healthcare Sectors Will Continue to Outperform Expect Hang

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Internet and Healthcare Sectors Will Continue to Outperform Expect Hang 4th Jan, 2018 Market Outlook Eric Yuen – [email protected] We expect Hong Kong’s stock market to trend upward in 2018 supported by further improvement in corporate earnings, weakening U.S. dollar and continuous inflow of capital from Mainland China. Latest economic data from U.S., Europe and China are encouraging showing that the world economy is likely to grow faster this year. Expect Hang Seng Index China’s GDP growth may slow from 6.8% in 2017 to 6.5% in 2018 as the Chinese government aims to improve economic structure and reduce financial risk that may to reach 35,000 in 2018 eventually lead to a re-rating of Chinese stocks amid the inclusion of A-shares into MSCI indexes. In terms of valuation, the Hang Seng Index is currently trading at estimated 2017 P/E of 14.3x which is 15% above 10-year average but not unreasonably high. We expect the Hang Seng Index to reach 35,000 this year based on 16.5x 2017 earnings. The magnitude and pace of U.S. rate hikes will be the major risk factor. We believe internet and healthcare sectors will continue to outperform the market in 2018 given further integration of artificial intelligence and big data with the real economy. Our top picks are Tencent (700), Ping An Insurance Internet and (2318), 3SBio Inc (1530) and Sino Biopharm (1177). We also like large Chinese healthcare sectors will banks such as ICBC (1398) and CCB (939) given their relatively low valuation and steady economic growth in China. Gaming stocks such as Galaxy Entertainment continue to outperform (27) and Sands China (1928) will also perform well because the completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge should boost Macau’s tourism industry leading to a sustainable recovery in Macau’s gamin revenue. Both local and Chinese property stocks are expected to underperform the market in view of rising interest rates. Mainland investors have significantly increased exposure to Hong Kong’s stock market. Net purchase of equities via the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects increased 38% from approximately $246 billion in 2016 to $340 billion in 2017. We expect the uptrend to continue this year that will further improve stock market Re-rating of HKEx (388) turnover and liquidity. HKEx (388) has recently decided to expand the existing listing regime to facilitate the IPO of companies from emerging and innovative sectors. We is imminent believe the policy change will attract more listings of Chinese tech companies in Hong Kong this year leading to a strong rebound in IPO fund raising. On the other hand, China Securities Regulatory Commission recently announced that it will start a pilot program for full circulation of H shares. This could be another share price catalyst for HKEx in our view. In conclusion, we believe a re-rating of HKEx is imminent and recommend a long-term BUY. Market Review U.S. stock markets continued its uptrend in December as the approval of the tax reform by the U.S. Congress further boosted market sentiment. The Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ surged 1.8%, 1.0% and 0.4% last month with a full year gain of 25.1%, 19.4% and 28.2% respectively. FTSE 100 climbed 4.9% to close at a record high. DAX and CAC 40 tumbled Hong Kong was 0.8%-1.1% due to rising euro against the U.S dollar. Nikkei 225 was little changed. Asian stock markets showed mixed performance. Benchmark stock market indexes dropped one of the best 0.4%-0.9% in Singapore and South Korea but advanced 3.0%-4.6% in India, Thailand and performing stock Malaysia. Jakarta Composite jumped 6.8% to reach all-time high. Shanghai Composite declined 0.3% with a diminishing turnover. Hong Kong was one of the best performing markets in 2017 markets in 2017. The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI rose 2.5% and 2.0% last month with a full year gain of 36.0% and 24.6% respectively. Hang Seng Index grew 2.5% in December. Heavily weighted Tencent (700), HSBC (5) and AIA Group (1299) soared 2.0%, 2.5% and 5.3% respectively. China Mobile (941) was flat. Gaming, consumption and Chinese property stocks significantly outperformed the market. Galaxy Entertainment (27) and Sands China (1928) rose Gaming, 11.7% and 6.3% respectively since Macau’s gaming revenue for November beat market expectations. Consumption upgrade may be a key investment theme for 2018. consumption and Mengniu Dairy (2319) and Hengan Int’l (1044) jumped 13.9%-17.2%. Want Want China (151) and WH Group (288) increased 6.4%-7.7%. Strong contracted sales and Chinese property renminbi appreciation in December caused a re-rating of Chinese property developers. Nine of the ten largest Chinese property stocks listed on HKEx grew an stocks outperformed average 7.7% among which Country Garden (2007) added 21.1%. Three largest oil companies grew an average 4.2% on rising crude oil price. Local banking and property stocks were mixed. Wharf (4) surged 9.8% while Swire Pacific (19) slid 3.7%. Handset component manufacturers faced profit taking pressure due to lower-than-expected demand for iPhone. AAC Technologies (2018) and Sunny Optical (2382) shrank 10.8% and 23.2% respectively. HSCEI increased 2.0% in December. Air China (753) surged 13.1% amid expectation of an increase in ticket price. Sinopharm (1099) rose 10.1%. Banking, insurance and railway Automobile, related stocks lacked clear direction. Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric (3898) and CRRC Corporation (1766) posted a gain of 13.4%-17.4%. China Railway Group (390) and China telecom and Railway Construction (1186) retreated 0.9%-1.9% CCB (939) was up 5.7% whilst Postal Savings Bank (1658) cut 7.5%. New China Life (1336) went up 7.2% but PICC Group (1339) securities stocks decreased 4.2%. Automobile, telecom and securities stocks ended lower. Guangzhou ended lower Automobile (2238), Chine Unicom (762) and China Galaxy Securities (6881) slumped 5.5%- 6.7%. Index and Sector Performance Summary for December 2017 % change in share price – Index Dec 2017 Hang Seng Index (29,919) ↑ 2.5 US stock markets hit all-time highs and inflow of HSCEI (11,709) ↑ 2.0 capital from Mainland China % chg in share Reasons Sectors Stocks price- Dec 2017 Outperform Airline Air China (753) ↑ 13 Rumour of ticket price hike Consumption China Mengniu Dairy (2319), Hengan (1044), ↑ 6-17, avg +11 Speculation on product price Want Want China (151), WH Group (288) hike due to rising inflation Pharmaceutical Sinopharm (1099) ↑ 10 Gaming Sands China (1928), Galaxy Entertainment (27) ↑ 6-12, avg +9 Solid gaming revenue growth Large developers continued to PRC properties Nine of ten largest Chinese property developers ↑ 1-21, avg +8 gain market share Insurance AIA Group (1299) ↑ 5 Coal China Shenhua (1088) ↑ 5 Higher coal price Oil PetroChina (857), Sinopec (386), CNOOC (883) ↑ 3-6, avg +4 Higher crude oil price Mixed Railway CRRC Corp (1766), Zhuzhou CRRC Times (3898) ↑ 13-17, avg +15 China Railway Group (390), ↓1-2, avg -1 China Railway Construction (1186) HK properties Nine local property stocks in Hang Seng Index -4 to +10, avg +3 Record high housing price PRC insurers Six Chinese insurers in HSCEI -4 to +7, avg +1 Weakness in A shares markets PRC banks Nine Chinese banks in HSCEI -8 to +6, avg +0 Weakness in A shares markets Underperform In Line/Mixed In Line/Mixed In Line/Mixed In Line/Mixed Miscellaneous Tencent (700), HKEx (388), CITIC Ltd (267), ↑ 1-2, avg +2 China Merchants Port (144), CCCC (1800) HSBC (5), BOC Hong Kong (2388), Rising HIBOR rates will HK banks -2 to +3, avg +0 Hang Seng Bank (11), Bank of East Asia (23) improve NIM of large banks HK utilities CLP Holdings (2), HK & China Gas (3), -1 to +1, avg +0 Rising interest rates in 2018 MTR Corp (66), Power Assets (6), CKI (1038) Power Huaneng Power (902), CGN Power (1816), Lower expectation on scale ↓0-2, avg -1 China Resources Power (836) of tariff increase in 2018 Cement Anhui Conch (914) ↓2 Higher cement price Telecom Three largest Chinese telecom stocks ↓0-7, avg -3 PRC securities Five securities stocks in HSCEI ↓0-6, avg -3 Weakness in A-shares markets Automobile BYD Company (1211), Dongfeng Motor (489), ↓0-6, avg -3 Profit taking by short-term Geely Auto (175), Guangzhou Auto (2238) investors Great Wall Motor (2333) Technology ↓11-23, avg -17 Lower-than-expected AAC Technologies (2018), Sunny Optical (2382) demand for iPhone Disclosures of Interests Research Analyst Certification The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this report accurately reject the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report; and the analysts are paid in part based or the profitability of Mason Securities Limited (“MSL”) and its affiliates (collectively called “Mason Group”) which includes revenue from investment banking activities. Research Analyst Conflicts Financial Interest: The research analyst(s) who prepared this report and/or his/her/their associates has/have no financial interests in relation to listed corporation(s) covered in this report. Relevant Relationships: The research analyst(s) who prepared this report and his/her/their associates do not serve as officer(s) of listed corporation(s) covered in this report. Mason Group’s Financial Interests and Business Relationships Mason Group may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities (or derivatives thereon) of issuer(s) mentioned in this report. Mason Group may have a financial interest in the issuer(s) mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in its/their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa.
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