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TURKISH BANKING SECTOR and GARANTI BANK Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank

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TURKISH BANKING SECTOR and GARANTI BANK Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Investor Relations January 2015 TURKISH BANKING SECTOR AND GARANTI BANK Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 4 Garanti’s Position In the Sector and Key Financial Indicators 2 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Turkish Economy (I/II) Slowdown Expected After the Slight Recovery in 2013 • 17th largest economy across the globe* GDP Growth • Rapid recovery in 2010-2011, slowdown in 2012 & slight recovery in 2013 on the back of accelerated domestic demand 9.4% 8.4% 9.2% 8.8% 6.9% 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% • Positive contribution from external demand 0.7% Avg. * vs. much lower contribution from domestic GDP growth demand expected in 2014 5.0% over * -4.8% LATAM : 3.9% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2003-2013 vs. EU*: 1.2% EM Europe*: 4.0% Inflationary Pressures Continue • 2013 was the third consecutive year missing Benchmark 27.2% 22.3% CPI target Bond Rate Real Interest 21.2% 16.6% • Upward risks to inflation stem from food in 16.5% 2014 while decelerating FX pass-through Inflation (CPI) 18.4% 14.0% effect may limit the upward pressure 11.0% 8.9% 10.0% 10.0% 7.1% • 10.4% 6.2% 8.0% CBT lowered one-week repo rate by 175bps 9.3% 9.7% 10.1% in May-July period on back of the decline in 8.4% 7.4% 8.2% 7.7% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 7.3% > Multiple policy tools risk premiums. CBT also lowered the aimed at financial stability overnight lending rate by 75bps in August to 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F (i.e interest rate corridor, maintain the current stance within a more reserve requirements, symmetric interest rate corridor, by still macro-prudential measures, etc) stressing the tight monetary policy stance Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Undersecretariat of Treasury F:Garanti Forecast 3 * Source: IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report dated October 2014. Ranking as of YE 2013 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Turkish Economy (II/II) Government Indebtedness EU Defined Government Debt Stock • Government indebtedness far below 77.9% 74.0% Maastricht Criteria 67.7% 59.6% Maastricht criteria 60% Government • Government debt to GDP ratio started to 52.7% 46.5% 46.1% decline just after the crisis, but slightly rose in 42.3% indebtedness 39.9% 40.0% 39.1% 2013; it is expected to fall according to 36.2% 36.2% 33.1% 31.8% far below Government’s Medium Term Plan (MTP) in Maastricht 2014 Criteria 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MTP MTP Current Account Deficit • Strong domestic demand and relatively weak Current Account Balance/GDP external demand led CAD/GDP ratio to reach its record level in 2011 Improving 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Current • In line with the weakening domestic demand & strong export performance CAD improved in Account 2012 while relatively higher growth in 2013 Deficit led an expansion in CAD -2.5% -2.0% -3.6% -4.5% • Domestic demand slowdown & TL depreciation -5.4% -5.1% -6.0% -5.8% -6.2% -6.2% -5.8% are likely to result in improvement in -7.9% CAD/GDP in 2014 -9.7% Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Undersecretariat of Treasury F:Garanti Forecast 4 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 4 Garanti’s Position In the Sector and Key Financial Indicators 5 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 1 Underpenetrated market with strong growth potential High and sustainable Real GDP growth1 nd 2 490 2 largest banking system in CEE EU EM Europe LATAM TURKEY with an asset size of US$769bn3 440 390 2004-9M14 CAGR: 14% 340 290 Well-regulated and strictly monitored 240 190 Real Real Growth GDP (Rebased) 140 Significant long-term growth potential 90 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2019 backed by attractive demographics & Penetration Ratios4 underpenetrated market 311% • 58% of the 77mn population < age of 355 • Loans/GDP: 63% vs. 105% in EU • ROAE: ~13%3 102% 110% 105% 56% 63% 58% 39% 13% Assets / GDP Customer Deposits / GDP Loans / GDP Turkey - 2002 Turkey - 3Q14 Euro Area - 3Q14 1 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014. Country groups are per IMF database. 2 Source: EBF Facts&Figures 2014, ranking per total assets . CEE countries include Russia 3 BRSA Monthly data for commercial banks as of September 2014. 6 4 Source: ECB, TurkStat, BRSA for commercial banks 5 Source: TurkStat – 31 December 2013 Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 2 Highly liquid… • Deposits fund 55% of assets1 Deposit-heavy funding structure • Comfortable level of Loans/Deposits at 112%1 Oğuz Bey’den Liquidity Adequacy Ratios2 well-above required levels istenecek Comfortable • Total Liquidity Ratio -- Monthly: 129% (Legal limit 100%) liquidity levels • FC Liquidity Ratio -- Monthly: 137% (Legal limit 80%) Banking Sector External Debt Roll-over Ratio(%)2 Oğuz Bey’den Continuous access istenecek to international funding sources 1 BRSA monthly data for commercial banks, as of September 2014 7 2 CBRT Financial Stability Report May 2014. Liquidity Ratios are as of April 2014. Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 3 …well-capitalized and underleveraged CAR1 (2Q14) 2 16.7% 16.3% 15.7% 15.5% Basel III CAR : 15.3% (9M 2014) High solvency 12.8% Tier-I capital: 84% of total capital Eurozone Turkey Poland Brazil Russia RWA/Assets 47% 84% 63% 81% 100% Leverage1 (2Q14) 12.0x 12.4x 2 10.0x High ROAEs : ~13% 8.2x 9.7x Low leverage 7.5x (9M 2014) despite the low leverage Turkey Russia Brazil Poland South Eurozone Africa 1 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database. Most of figures are based on 2Q14 figures 8 2 BRSA monthly data as of September 2014, commercial banks only Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 4 Standing out for its asset quality Non-performing loans/Total gross loans1 Sustained sound asset quality • No exposure to any toxic assets or problematic sovereign assets • NPL Ratio3: 2.9% in Turkey 2 NPL ratio • High cash coverage @ 75%3 EU 27 12.0% 11.0% CEEMEA 10.0% 9.8% • Established & prudent 8.0% underwriting procedures 6.0% 4.0% LATAM 2.8% 2.0% TURKEY 2.7% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2Q14 1 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database, most of which are based on 2Q14 figures 2 Source: Latest data from the IMF-FSI database. Represents country averages most of which are based on 2Q14 figures 9 3 BRSA monthly data as of September 2014, commercial banks only Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Agenda 1 Turkish Economy 2 Turkish Banking Sector: An attractive investment opportunity 3 Garanti Overview and Key Investment Highlights 4 Garanti’s Position In the Sector and Key Financial Indicators 10 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Garanti: Pre-eminent banking franchise Total Assets 2nd largest private bank; by asset size US$ 107.0 bn Robust balance sheet; highly liquid, well-capitalized & low risk 9M14 Net Income #1 in ordinary banking income US$ 1.3 bn proven track record on capacity to generate sustainable banking income ROAE CAR & Strong capitalization, low leverage (8x) 16.1% 13.7% NPL ratio Sound asset quality – consistenly well better than sector average 2.8% Branch network Focused on relationship banking with broad * geographical coverage and wide multi-channel distribution network 1,002 # of customers Customer centric approach, sophisticated * ~13mn segmentation & advanced IT Market capitalization Most valuable company in the BIST * US$ 17 bn *As of Dec 22, 2014 Note: All figures are per BRSA Consolidated data 11 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Single point of contact for all financial needs Commercial Asset Contribution: 5.2% Asset Contribution: 2.3% Consumer Payment Systems Asset Contribution: 0.4% Asset Contribution: 2.8% Asset Contribution: 1.0% Digital Corporate Asset Contribution: 1.6% Banking Asset Contribution: 0.0% SME Asset Contribution: 0.0% Note: Asset contributions are calculated based on BRSA Consolidated Financials as of September 30, 2014 12 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank Visionary investments shaped today’s innovative business model Technology Delivery Channels Technology Human Resources Process Risk Management People Sustainable Banking 13 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 1 Visionary investments in technology since 1990’s… Integral part in decision making supporting process efficiencies and continuously driving the Bank forward IT Vision Investing Full In-House Custom-Fit Driver in Technology Development Solutions (Integral Part of Management) Innovative products and services Advanced CRM applications and segmentation A single source of data & common understanding Top down fast decision making Paperless banking environment and strong communication 14 Investor Relations / Turkish Banking Sector and Garanti Bank 2a Investments in delivery channels: Extensive branch network #1 in branch openings Since 2002 >645 new branch additions 1.2x of its closest peer 100 % Geographical Coverage in 3Q14 vs. 49% in 2002 60% was outside of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir Number of Branches %58 3.0x of branch openings since 2005 918 936 1,002
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