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Alixpartners Automotive- Electrification Index AlixPartners Automotive- Electrification Index Third Quarter – 2017 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index e-Range • By automaker, segment, region and country E-RANGE = • Note: e-Range does not include range from internal-combustion- engine (ICE) sources in plug-in hydrids – Only the battery range Sum of electric is included range of all electric • The e-Range attempts to rank the electrically driven range, and vehicles (EV) sold as such, does not include non-plug-in hybrids (HEVs) such as the standard Toyota Prius 2 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index ICE-vehicle equivalent market share • By automaker, segment, region and country Using e-Range data, • Full-ICE-equivalent EVs are defined as the electric range of the we can calculate an vehicle sold divided by 311 miles (500 km) ICE-vehicle • Note: to make the EV equivalent to an internal combustion engine equivalent vehicle (ICE), the 311-mile (500-km) range approximates an market share equivalent range between fill-ups for ICE vehicles. Dividing by this factor results in a more illuminating view of overall Total number of electrification, as it counts vehicles with high-electric ranges as full full-ICE-equivalent- alternatives to ICE vehicles and discounts small range city cars or range EVs sold compliance vehicles Total number of • Note: range of the ICE vehicles are not normalized to 311 miles (500 km) – each ICE unit sold is counted as a full vehicle vehicles sold (EV and ICE) 3 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX AlixPartners Automotive Electrification Index • Goal: ‘e-Range’ as a more meaningful measure than currently exists in the public domain for tracking the progress of electrification in the auto industry globally by region, country, segment and particularly by Automaker • Transparency: Based on public available data and data validated directly by the Automakers • Sources: − IHS Markit Ltd.: for total sales data (all vehicle types) − EV-volumes.com: for electric ranges for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) − Automaker- and government-published websites: ditto the above − Discussions with Automakers to validate ranges, with several Automakers updating ranges beyond what was publicly available • Vehicle scope: passenger cars and light trucks (GVW<6 tons), which coincides with IHS Market's ‘light vehicle’ definition • Sales allocation by automaker: based on IHS Markit’s method for allocating vehicle sales to brands (including for joint ventures, upfitters, post-production customizations, etc.) 4 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX 71 Countries in the Index (where EV sales have taken place/are recordable to date) AUSTRALIA ESTONIA MACEDONIA SERBIA AUSTRIA FINLAND MALAYSIA SINGAPORE BAHRAIN FRANCE MALTA SLOVAKIA BELGIUM GERMANY MEXICO SLOVENIA BERMUDAS GREECE MAROCCO SOUTH AFRICA BRAZIL HONG KONG NETHERLANDS SOUTH KOREA BULGARIA HUNGARY NEW ZEALAND SPAIN CANADA ICELAND NORWAY SWEDEN CHILE INDIA OMAN SWITZERLAND CHINA INDONESIA PANAMA TAIWAN COLOMBIA IRELAND PERU THAILAND COSTA RICA ISRAEL POLAND TURKEY CROATIA ITALY PORTUGAL UKRAINE CYPRUS JAPAN PUERTO RICO UAE CZECH REP. JORDAN QATAR UK DENMARK LATVIA ROMANIA USA ECUADOR LITHUANIA RUSSIA URUGUAY EGYPT LUXEMBOURG SAUDI ARABIA Sources: EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses 5 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX e-Range and ICE-equivalent share increased by a factor of ten resp. nine since Q1 ’13 until Q3 ‘17; average electrical range went up by 30% only Q1 2013 AlixPartners Automotive-Electrification Index Q3 2017 70 Number of 40 0.6 Number of BEV, PHEV, 60 BEV, PHEV, FCEV sold: FCEV sold: e-Range 0.5 ICE 41,023 50 322,217 - 30 eq. share (percentage) ICE-eq. 0.4 40 share ICE-eq. ICE-eq. share: 20 0.3 share: 30 X10.1 X9.0 0.06% 0.51% Range (km, millions) (km, Range - Range (miles, millions) (miles, Range 0.2 - e 20 e 10 Market 10 0.1 Market share: share: 0.21% 0 0 0.0 1.46% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ’13 ’13 ’13 ’13 ’14 ’14 ’14 ’14 ’15 ’15 ’15 ’15 ’16 ’16 ’16 ’16 ’17 ’17 ’17 Average Average e- range: e- range: 84 miles E-range: Electric miles sold 109 miles (136 km) ICE-eq. share : Number full ICE equivalent1 sold as percentage of total number of vehicles sold (176 km) 1 Electric range/311miles (500km) defining the equivalent full ICE vehicle share 6 Sources: IHS Markit, EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses, AlixPartners research ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX e-Range and ICE-equivalent share by region: China keeps on growing the most e-Range: main regions by quarter (Q1 ’13 to Q3 ’17) ICE-eq. share: main regions by quarter (Q1 ’13 to Q3 ’17) 70 0.8 40 60 50 0.6 30 40 0.4 20 30 eq. share (percentage) share eq. Range (km, millions) (km, Range - - Range (miles, millions) (miles, Range - e e 20 ICE 10 0.2 10 0 0 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ’13’13’13’13’14’14’14’14’15’15’15’15’16’16’16’16’17’17’17 ’13’13 ’13’13’14 ’14’14’14 ’15’15’15 ’15’16’16 ’16’16’17 ’17’17 Key: Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America Global Sources: IHS Markit, EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses, AlixPartners research 7 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX Tesla and Chinese still gaining ground with Renault-Nissan showing signs of slow down e-Range: Top 5 OEMs by quarter (Q1 ’13 to Q3 ’17) e-Range: Top 5 countries by quarter (Q1 ’13 to Q3 ’17) 16 10 35 20 14 30 8 12 25 15 10 6 20 8 10 4 15 6 Range (km, millions) (km, Range millions) (km, Range - - Range (miles, millions) (miles, Range millions) (miles, Range - - e e e 10 e 4 5 2 2 5 0 0 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2 Q3 ’13’13’13’13’14’14’14’14’15’15’15’15’16’16’16’16’17’17’17 ’13’13’13’13’14’14’14’14’15’15’15’15’16’16’16’16’17’17’17 Key: Tesla BYD General Motors Key: China Norway Germany Renault/Nissan BAIC United States France Sources: IHS Markit, EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses, AlixPartners research 8 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX e-Range by country Q3 2017: China still leading by far, more than twice the US and more than the next 15 combined e-Range by country: Q3 2017 e-Range e-Range e-Range e-Range Country (miles, (km Number Country (miles, (km Number Rank Q3 ’17 millions) millions) EV sold Rank Q3 ’17 millions) millions) EV sold 1 China 17.15 27.59 166,681 21 Malaysia 0.05 0.08 1,957 2 United States 7.49 12.05 53,989 22 India 0.05 0.08 622 3 Norway 1.97 3.18 16,185 23 Finland 0.05 0.07 796 4 Germany 1.39 2.24 14,356 24 Ireland 0.05 0.07 334 5 France 1.32 2.12 9,292 25 New Zealand 0.04 0.06 246 6 United Kingdom 1.14 1.84 13,573 26 UAE 0.03 0.06 131 7 Japan 0.72 1.15 10,467 27 Poland 0.03 0.06 346 8 Canada 0.59 0.95 5,104 28 Hungary 0.03 0.05 277 9 South Korea 0.51 0.82 4,559 29 Luxembourg 0.02 0.04 251 10 Netherlands 0.48 0.77 2,365 30 Czech Republic 0.02 0.03 178 11 Sweden 0.36 0.58 5,070 31 Mexico 0.02 0.03 132 12 Austria 0.30 0.49 2,021 32 Slovenia 0.02 0.03 145 13 Switzerland 0.30 0.48 2,048 33 Ukraine 0.02 0.03 132 14 Spain 0.23 0.38 2,306 34 Jordan 0.02 0.02 62 15 Belgium 0.21 0.33 3,475 35 Singapore 0.02 0.02 87 16 Italy 0.12 0.19 1,286 36 Romania 0.01 0.02 103 17 Portugal 0.10 0.16 1,004 37 Taiwan 0.01 0.02 56 18 Australia 0.09 0.14 461 38 Slovakia 0.01 0.01 94 19 Iceland 0.07 0.12 1,039 39 Hong Kong 0.01 0.01 65 20 Denmark 0.07 0.12 392 40 South Africa 0.01 0.01 56 Sources: IHS Markit, EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses, AlixPartners research 9 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX e-Range by country Q3 2017: China still leading by far, more than twice the US and more than the next 15 combined (cont’d) e-Range by country: Q3 2017 e-Range e-Range e-Range e-Range Country (miles, (km Number Country (miles, (km Number Rank Q3 ’17 millions) millions) EV sold Rank Q3 ’17 millions) millions) EV sold 41 Israel 0.01 0.01 68 61 Thailand 0.00 0.00 12 42 Colombia 0.00 0.01 44 62 Macedonia 0.00 0.00 5 43 Cyprus 0.00 0.01 41 63 Uruguay 0.00 0.00 5 44 Brazil 0.00 0.01 24 64 Panama 0.00 0.00 4 45 Lithuania 0.00 0.01 24 65 Saudi Arabia 0.00 0.00 9 46 Russia 0.00 0.01 19 66 Qatar 0.00 0.00 2 47 Turkey 0.00 0.01 19 67 Egypt 0.00 0.00 2 48 Latvia 0.00 0.00 19 68 Peru 0.00 0.00 2 49 Indonesia 0.00 0.00 17 69 Bahrain 0.00 0.00 1 50 Greece 0.00 0.00 48 70 Bermuda - - 0 51 Serbia 0.00 0.00 16 71 Puerto Rico - - 0 52 Bulgaria 0.00 0.00 26 Global 35.16 56.59 322,217 53 Chile 0.00 0.00 11 54 Ecuador 0.00 0.00 17 55 Croatia 0.00 0.00 2 56 Estonia 0.00 0.00 10 57 Morocco 0.00 0.00 3 58 Malta 0.00 0.00 3 59 Costa Rica 0.00 0.00 7 60 Oman 0.00 0.00 14 Sources: IHS Markit, EV-volumes.com, Automaker responses, AlixPartners research 10 ALIXPARTNERS AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRIFICATION INDEX ICE-equivalent share by country Q3 2017: China share going up, but smaller European countries with high buying power still ahead ICE-eq.
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