Participation, Representation and Political Inclusion Is There an Indigenous Vote in Mexico?* Willibald Sonnleitner** ABSTRACT: Deficient political representation of indigenous peoples stands out as a pending issue of Mexico’s democratization, since they are among the most marginalized and discriminated sectors of one of the most diverse, multi-ethnic nations of Latin America. This contribution analyses the recent evolution and the persistent gap in indigenous legislative representation in Mexico. Then, the results of federal elections between 1991 and 2018 are scrutinized in order to identify patterns of voting behavior and trends in electoral turnout in indigenous polling stations, controlling by other socio-demographic variables. The conclusions highlight the inexistence of a specific indi- genous vote, the political diversity of indigenous territories and their implications for public po- licies aimed at expanding indigenous representation and political inclusion. KEYWORDS: affirmative action, indigenous voting, representation of ethnic groups, political inclu- sion of minorities. Participación, representación e inclusión política: ¿Existe un voto indígena en México? RESUMEN: Entre las asignaturas pendientes de la democracia mexicana, destaca el déficit en la inclu- sión política de las poblaciones indígenas, uno de los sectores más marginados y discriminados de una de las naciones pluriétnicas más diversas de Latinoamérica. Esta contribución analiza la evolu- ción reciente y el rezago persistente de la representación legislativa indígena en México. Luego se estudian los resultados de los comicios federales entre 1991 y 2018, para identificar las tendencias de la participación y las orientaciones del voto en las secciones electorales indígenas del país, controlando por otras variables sociodemográficas. Las conclusiones destacan la ausencia de un voto específico y la diversidad política de las regiones indígenas, e invitan a repensar las políticas públicas orientadas a ampliar la representación e inclusión política indígena. PALABRAS CLAVE: acción afirmativa, voto indígena, representación de grupos étnicos, inclusión política de minorías. *Translation by Ana Pascoe. **Willibald Sonnleitner is a fulltime professor at El Colegio de México. Camino al Ajusco 20, Pedre- gal de Santa Teresa, Mexico City, 10740. Tel: (52) 55-54.49.30.00 (ext. 3064). E-mail: wsonnleitner@ colmex.mx. ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-8463-5908. Article received on June 15, 2019, and accepted for publication on April 03, 2020. Note: This range of pages corresponds to the published Spanish version of this article. Please refer to this range of pages when you cite this article. VOLUME XXVII · NUMBER 2 · II SEMESTER 2020 ePYG1282 Política y gobierno 1 Willibald Sonnleitner DOES THE INDIGENOUS VOTE MATTER? mong the pending issues of Mexican democracy, the deficit in the political A inclusion of indigenous peoples, one of the most marginalized and excluded sectors of the country, stands out. There is now a clear normative consensus regard- ing this issue, since it is widely recognized that the participation and representation of indigenous peoples is essential for their inclusion in the concert of voices and votes that define the politics of such a diverse and multiethnic nation like Mexico. However, despite the broad electoral participation of many indigenous communi- ties, a noticeable lag persists in their legislative representation, a lag that is associ- ated with multifaceted practices of discrimination and exclusion —economic, so- cial and cultural. For this reason, in November 2017, the National Electoral Institute (Instituto Nacional Electoral, INE) approved a general agreement to urge political parties to respect gender parity and to present indigenous candidates for federal legislative seats in twelve of the 28 singe-member districts with more than 40 per cent of indig- enous population (INE, 2017). In December of that same year, the Electoral Court of the Federal Judiciary (Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación, TEPJF) ratified this agreement and expanded the compulsory candidacies to the thirteen districts with more than 60 per cent of indigenous population (TEPJF, 2017). On July 1, 2018, a historic advance was registered in the area of ​​female representation, with the election of 49.2 per cent of female legislators in the Chamber of Deputies and 50.8 per cent of female legislators in the Senate of the Republic. In the case of ​​indig- enous political inclusion, however, the results found to be wanting. Even with the new affirmative action measures, only seven indigenous candi- dates were elected in 2018. Instead of increasing, the number of elected legislators of indigenous origin went down —it had reached 18 seats in the Chamber of Dep- uties in 2006, after the creation of the 28 indigenous districts by the 2004 reforms. How can these apparently contradictory results be explained? Why was it not pos- sible to increase the number of elected indigenous legislators? How are ethnic identities linked to the electoral behaviors of Mexicans? Who competes, and who wins in indigenous districts? How much do voters participate and how do they vote in indigenous territories? How can indigenous political representation be im- proved and expanded? These questions —which I have been investigating within the framework of two projects1— are more complex than they seem at first sight. Public policies of affir- 1 The title of the first project is “The participation and political representation of indigenous Mexi- cans: From discrimination to the inclusion of native populations” and was supported by the Colmex Research Support Fund (FACI). The second project was promoted by Democracy, Human Rights And Security, A.C. and El Colegio de México, under the auspices of the 2017-2018 Electoral Observation Support Fund of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). It was entitled “Observing the VOLUME XXVII · NUMBER 2 · II SEMESTER 2020 ePYG1282 Política y gobierno 2 PARTICIPATION, REPRESENTATION AND POLITICAL INCLUSION mative action promoted by the electoral authorities presuppose the existence of specific political demands that would be reflected, in turn, in a specific form of policy supply for indigenous peoples. The intersection of these supply and de- mand curves would thus translate into an indigenous vote. However, this hypoth- esis must be tested in order to be confirmed. In fact, the evidence collected in my research does not draw the conclusion that there is one electoral constituency in Mexico that is specifically indigenous, nor does it make it possible to prove that in 2018 there was a predominantly indigenous policy supply in the legislative districts with concentrated indigenous populations. To explore this hypothesis, I analyze biographical data of the 105 candidates registered in the 28 indigenous districts for the 2018 election and compare the re- sult with those of previous elections since 1988. Then, the results of the federal elections between 1991 and 2018 are analyzed to identify the trends of electoral participation and partisan voting in the indigenous electoral sections and to contrast them with those of the mestizo zones, controlling for other variables of territorial inequality and socio-demographics. The findings bring into question the hypo- thetical existence of an indigenous vote and call to reconsider public policies aimed at expanding indigenous political inclusion. In contrast to the premises of current affirmative action measures, the difficulty in capturing ethno-linguistic identities and their strong socio-territorial heterogeneity, the ambivalence of registration re- quirements and the low proportion of indigenous candidates in the federal districts with more than 40 per cent of native populations, as well as the plurality of electoral behaviors in the indigenous electoral sections, help explain the reduced number of indigenous legislators. AN AMBIVALENT BALANCE: THE GAPS IN INDIGENOUS POLITICAL REPRESENTATION Today, there is wide consensus on the need to recognize the cultural diversity and multi-ethnic nature of the Mexican Nation, and to guarantee the rights of indige- nous peoples and communities.2 Also, a widespread awareness has taken place re- garding the urgency of improving the political inclusion of indigenous populations, through mechanisms that promote political participation and representation of a greater scope, efficiency and quality. challenges of democratic inclusion in Mexico” and it included the participation of Sophie Hvostoff, Ulises Urusquieta, Arturo Sánchez, Arturo Alvarado, Manuel Jonathan Soria, Mariana Arzate and Norma García. I thank these institutions for the funding, and the colleagues for the rich intellectual exchanges. 2 The new normative consensus is reflected in the reforms carried out over the last decades. These were embodied in the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States, as well as in other instru- ments of international law (ILO Convention 169, the declarations of indigenous rights adopted by the United Nations and by the Organization of American States). This jurisprudence lays the ground for the recognition of the pluricultural composition of the mexican nation and of indigenous rights (TEPJF, 2014; Galván Rivera, 2014; Hernández Díaz, 2011; Hernández Narváez, 2010). VOLUME XXVII · NUMBER 2 · II SEMESTER 2020 ePYG1282 Política y gobierno 3 Willibald Sonnleitner However, these new rights have not been implemented by all entities of the Re-