The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy∗ Joseph S. Shapiro UC Berkeley and NBER
[email protected] May 2019 Abstract This paper documents a new fact, then analyzes its causes and consequences: in most countries, import tariffs and non-tariff barriers are substantially lower on dirty than on clean industries, where an industry's \dirtiness" is defined as its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per dollar of output. This difference in trade policy creates a global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions in internationally traded goods and so contributes to climate change. This global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions totals several hundred billion dollars annually. The greater protection of downstream industries, which are relatively clean, substantially accounts for this pattern. The downstream pattern can be explained by theories where industries lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but final consumers are poorly organized. A quantitative general equilibrium model suggests that if countries applied similar trade policies to clean and dirty goods, global CO2 emissions would decrease by several percent annually, and global real income would not change. JEL: Q50, Q56, F6, F13, F18, H23 ∗I thank Costas Arkolakis, Tim Armstrong, Kyle Bagwell, Brian Copeland, Arnaud Costinot, Thibault Fally, Penny Goldberg, Edgar Hertwich, Sam Kortum, Arik Levinson, Giovanni Maggi, Guillermo Noguera, Bill Nordhaus, Michael Peters, Steve Puller, Andr´esRodr´ıguez-Clare,Nick Ryan, Bob Staiger, Reed Walker, Marty Weitzman, and seminar participants at AEA, Columbia, Dartmouth, the Environmental Defense Fund, Georgetown, Harvard Kennedy School, IDB, NTA, Stanford, UBC, UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, U Mass Amherst, and Yale for useful discussions, Matt Fiedler and Ralph Ossa for sharing code, Elyse Adamic, Kenneth Lai, Eva Lyubich, Daisy Chen Sun, and Katherine Wagner for excellent research assistance, and the Alfred P.