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November 03 Newsletter Vol. IX, No. 12 www.cubatradenews.com December2007 Venezuelan ‘no’ leaves question mark over Cuba In a Dec. 2 referendum, Venezuelan voters dealt Presi- dent Hugo Chávez his first defeat at the polls in nine years, narrowly turning down a constitutional reform proposal that would have — among others — anchored Latin American integration in the country’s constitu- tion. Venezuelan support and integration efforts have been But then, the Venezuelans said no a main driving force behind Cuba’s rapid economic recov- ery of the past five years. dark picture of possible violence in Venezuela, warning Venezuela has not only become the island’s biggest oil Cubans they could be thrown back into hard times. supplier, but also a buyer of medical and educational ser- Even so, the defeat of Chávez’ reform proposal won’t have vices, as well as — more recently — an investor in Cuba’s a major impact on Cuba, says one Cuba watcher in Wash- agriculture, oil, petrochemical and nickel industries. Ven- ington. ezuela is also the driving force behind “My guess is, not much in the short Cuba’s re-insertion into the hemisphere term,” the Lexington Institute’s Phil Pe- via the ALBA trade and integration ALSO READ ters wrote in his blog about the possible agreement. ‘FLORIDA STRAIT’ impact. “But I’m keeping an eye out.” In an alarming sounding editorial page 3 Meanwhile, Chávez left no doubt that anticipating Chávez’ defeat three days the reform proposal will be back. before the vote, Fidel Castro painted a Continued on next page Embargo Economy CUBA TURNS COOL TO U.S. BUSINESS AFTER DEBATE, THE REPORT State food importer Alimport S.A.turned a cold shoulder to After two rounds of discussions and suggestions for political U.S. companies at this year’s Havana International Fair Nov. and economic reforms in Cuba, a final official report is taking 5-10, while signing $140 million and $90 million worth of shape. Continued on next page The massive consultation process was triggered by a July 26 speech by interim President Raúl Castro in which Cowboy diplomacy he asked people to speak frankly about problems. The discussions took place within the Communist Florida cattle Party, block committees and workplaces, reaching broker John Parke an estimated 5 million Cubans Wright IV, r., According to sources consulted by the Cuba successively correspondent of Mexico’s La Jornada, expert hosted Cardinal commissions are now reviewing and ordering the Jaime Ortega, l., feedback to produce a final report. and Revolution The report, according to La Jornada’s sources, Commander will make clear that any change will happen Guillermo García gradually and within the system. However, it will Frias in his booth also suggest more opening towards foreign at the Havana investment and more market mechanism in sectors International Fair. that have been state-controlled. Continued on p. 7 ‘Venezuelan ‘No’, from previous page “Canadian businesspeople are very efficient, very strong and “To those who voted for my proposal, and to those who very competitive, and they don’t blockade us,” he said. voted against my proposal, I thank you and I congratu- To be sure, the contracts announced at the fair are only the late you. You have proven that this is the way, and hope- visible tip of the U.S.-Cuban trade iceberg. Much of Alimport’s fully you will forget about destabilization,” Chávez said U.S. buying consists of routine commodity purchases from the day after the vote, referring to denunciations of sabo- large companies such as Archer Daniels Midland Inc., Cargill tage his government had made earlier. “There is no dic- Corp. or Perdue Chicken. tatorship here.” But Alimport’s turn to other markets will likely keep U.S. But in his concession speech, he said his reform project sales to Cuba in reverse for 2007 and 2008. U.S. sales to the was going to come back. “I won’t retract a single comma island already dropped from a high of $392 million in 2004 to from the proposal. This proposal is still alive.” $340 million last year. Reflecting a lack of newcomers, the U.S. contingent of 213 registered businesspeople occupied a much smaller part of the ‘Cuba cool,’ from previous page Alimport pavilion than in past years. Several booths rented by U.S. companies weren’t even occupied during the event. contracts, respectively, with Canadian and Vietnamese The rare American highlights were the visits of the producers. Republican governor of Nebraska, Dave Alimport closed food purchasing contracts Heineman, and the agriculture commissioners with U.S. companies for only $106 million, “... and they don’t of Alabama, Minnesota and Ohio. leaving no doubt that this was intentional. blockade us.” Not surprisingly, Alimport signed the biggest This is “a figure much smaller than in the Alimport President Pedro American contract at the fair for $10 million previous year,” said Alimport Chairman Álvarez about Canadian sellers worth of wheat from Nebraska, via the U.S. Pedro Álvarez, sending an unmistakable subsidiary of French commodity trader Louis signal to U.S. executives it’s not willing to Dreyfus. keep up with Washington’s restrictions for much longer. Other U.S. players used to landing contracts left empty- U.S. firms are “efficient and competitive suppliers,” but due handed. California-based The Rice Co., for example, didn’t to their government’s restrictions, “they become uncertain” get a deal this time. Alimport instead signed a contract with partners, Álvarez said. Vietnam to buy 200,000 tons of rice for around $90 million. In a surprising vote in July, the Democratically-controlled “They’re giving long-term financing,” a Rice Co. executive House of Representatives rejcted an amendment to the farm said about his Vietnamese competitors. bill that would have eased financing restrictions. U.S. rice exports to Cuba fell from 175,000 tons in 2005 to U.S. deals signed at the fair include 25,000 tons of wheat 80,000 tons in 2006, and are expected to drop further this year. from Nebraska, Alabama chicken, and contracts for corn and Due to U.S. restrictions, Cuba must pay American suppliers soy products (also see “From the Sales Department,” p. 11). in cash, before delivery. Although the Canadian dollar is at a But the new action was elsewhere. Alimport agreed to buy record high vis-à-vis the $90 million worth of rice from Vietnam, feed from companies U.S. dollar, and in Mexico and the Dominican Republic, as well as supermarket transportation costs for products from Spanish suppliers. Canadian goods are The biggest deals, however, went to Canada. After signing higher than for U.S. a $70 million purchase contract for Canadian wheat, one of goods, Canadian and the first contracts at the fair, Álvarez said that Alimport expects other exporters have an to increase its food and agricultural purchases from Canada edge because they can by 40 percent in 2008. offer financing. Cuba Trade & Investment News is a monthly publication of North American Partners (NAP), Tampa, FL, USA. CTIN is distributed to subscribers via mail or e-mail. Publisher Andrew Goddard P.O. Box 13752 Tampa, FL 33681-3752 USA Tel: 813 839 6988 Fax: 813 831 3811 [email protected] www.cubatradenews.com Editor Johannes Werner [email protected] Tel: 941 330 0303 Editorial Advisors: Chris Aberle, Michelle Butler, Kirby Jones, David Lyons, John McAuliff, Phil Peters SUBSCRIPTIONS Call 813 839 6988. One year $300. In Canada and Mexico, add $15 postage. COPYRIGHT NOTICE No part of this publication may be copied, photographed or duplicated without NAP’s consent. 2 Analysis: ALBA Florida Cuba turning into launch pad — for business Strait Although ALBA got a damper by the Dec. 2 defeat of Hugo Chávez’ constitu- tional reform project, the integration and trade agreement should be taken seri- ously by companies doing business with Cuba. If the “Bolivarian Alernative” con- tinues to grow as it has over the past four years, it could provide access to new, growing markets. The German company that recently within that trade and integration sold Iveco cement and bitumen trucks agreement, known by its Spanish to Cuba had no clue they would acronym ALBA (the letters stand for actually end up in Venezuela. And Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas, MTU Friedrichshafen and Hyundai but the word means “sunrise”), the Cuban Heavy Industries executives probably government is beginning to act as an didn’t know what “hit” them earlier intermediary for sales to other member this year, when their Cuban nations. subsidiaries landed contracts to sell a Cuban trade with Venezuela is already total of 180 diesel important. And, WILLIAM S. SPEER engines to although exports from Cuba to By Johannes Werner Venezuela, via the More than Hugo’s club Cuban government. In September, the ALBA ALBA members Why you should expect At the same time, ministerial council approved Nicaragua and foreign Bolivia are still more Venezuelan activity the creation of a Caracas- businesspeople in based permanent secretariat. small, companies Havana are Each member country will that sell Cuba Will the narrow defeat of Hugo increasingly take over the rotating presi- goods ranging Chávez’ constitutional reform hearing from their dency for a two-year term. from aircraft to referendum Dec. 2 affect Cuba’s Cuban partners to The head office began medical systems, economy? please source goods operating in November. At the from generators to My guess is, yes. The question is and services in September meeting, the frozen chicken, how much. Venezuela. ministers also prioritized 18 of from mining The issue is of foremost The re-exported 39 “grandnational” projects, equipment to buses importance to Cuba and its trade trucks, generator including a telecom, food stand to gain if partners, because Venezuela has been sales and sourcing distribution company, an they understand the engine of the fast-paced suggestions are ALBA-wide supermarket chain the new business economic recovery over the past five small deals, but for subsidized groceries, a opportunity.
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