Volume XLIV, Number 1
JNMM Journal of Nuclear Materials Management
Report of the 56th Annual INMM Annual Meeting 5 Teressa McKinney
Opening Plenary Session 8 Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi
JNMM Roundtable 17
Closing Plenary Session 23
Published by the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration
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January 11–13, 2016 Washington Marriott Georgetown 1221 22nd Street NW, Washington, DC USA
REGISTER Sponsored by the INMM Packaging, Transportation TODAY and Disposition Technical Division www.inmm.org In cooperation with the United States Nuclear Infrastructure Council JNMM Journal of Nuclear Materials Management
Technical Editor Dennis Mangan Assistant Technical Editor Markku Koskelo Journal of Nuclear Materials Management Managing Editor JNMM Patricia Sullivan Associate Editors Sarah Frazar, Education and Training Topical Papers Jeff Chapman, Facilities Operations Gotthard Stein and Irmgard Niemeyer, Report of the 56th Annual INMM Annual Meeting 5 International Safeguards Teressa McKinney Louise Worrall and Rian Bahran, Materials Control and Accountability Opening Plenary Session 8 Leslie Fishbone, Nonproliferation Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi and Arms Control Felicia Durán, Nuclear Security and JNMM Roundtable 17 Physical Protection Glenn Abramczyk, Packaging,Transportation and Closing Plenary Session 23 Disposition Book Review Editor Mark L. Maiello Institute News Book Review Editor Walter Kane President’s Message 2 INMM Executive Committee Larry Satkowiak, President Corey Hinderstein, Vice President Technical Editor’s Note 4 Chris Pickett, Secretary Robert U. Curl, Treasurer Ken Sorenson, Immediate Past President Members At Large Departments Jill N. Cooley Cary Crawford Book Review: 34 Ken Sanders Steven Wyrick Command and Control Design Shirley Soda Layout Taking the Long View in a Time of Great Uncertainty 37 Brian McGowan A World of Critical Uncertainties Digital Interface GTXcel Advertising Contact Author Submission Guidelines 40 Patricia Sullivan INMM, One Parkview Plaza, Suite 800 Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181 USA Phone: +1-847-688-2236 Calendar 40 Fax: +1-847-688-2251 Email: [email protected]
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Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 1 President’s Message
A Time of Changes
By Larry Satkowiak INMM President
Greetings! grade of Fellow may be attained only by World Institute for Nuclear Here in the northern hemisphere we are advancement from the grade of Senior Security entering the season of autumn . I look Member . Fellows are nominated by their This year is the tenth anniversary of an forward to autumn and the changes it peers and extensively vetted by INMM’s idea first proposed by a senior group of brings, cooler and drier days, the leaves Fellows Committee and Executive Com- INMM Fellows—the establishment of a changing color, harvesting fruits and veg- mittee . To be a named a Fellow is a high new international organization, the World etables . It’s a time for reflection on the honor . It recognizes their long-term, ded- Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS), accomplishments of the summer and icated service to the Institute . Congratu- whose role would be to share interna- for preparations for the coming year . So lations to each of you! tional best practices on nuclear security . change is also here at the INMM . Before The Opening Plenary Speaker, Rafael With support of multiple organizations, our November Executive Committee (EC) Mariano Grossi, Ambassador of Argen- both governmental and nongovernmen- meeting, the EC will be developing a bud- tina to the International Atomic Energy tal, WINS was established three years get, revising and updating our bylaws, Agency (IAEA), chair of the Nuclear Sup- later under the leadership of Roger How- developing strategies for expanding par- pliers Group, gave a very captivating sley . WINS has been busy ever since, ticipation, and, because we are all volun- presentation titled, The Nuclear Equa- producing thirty-three International Best teers, working our day jobs . tion: From Fukushima to Teheran and Practice Guides and publishing them in Beyond—Challenges and Opportunities . up to ten languages; delivering more Annual Meeting A transcript of his talk and of our Round- than sixty International Best Practice The Annual Meeting this year was su- table luncheon with him is presented in Workshops in more than twenty coun- perb . I want to thank and recognize the this edition of the Journal . Ambassador tries; and launching the WINS Academy, general chair, Corey Hinderstein, the Grossi has had a stellar career and I ex- the world’s first international certification technical program chair, Teressa McKin- pect to see him advance even further . program for nuclear security manage- ney, and all the staff of our headquarters ment . WINS and the INMM continue management team . The technical pro- Welcome New Members-at-Large this close relationship working together gram included 297 oral presentations, Congratulations to Ken Sanders and Jill in many different areas . Ken Sorenson thirty-six posters, and fifty-two concur- Cooley as our newly elected Executive serves as our liaison with WINS . rent sessions that included three panel Committee (EC) members-at-large . Their discussions . We had more than 630 in two-year term began October 1 . Thank Upcoming Events attendance representing twenty-nine you to Brian Boyer and Joyce Connery January 11-13, 2016, the 31st Spent Fuel countries . The Technical Program Com- for serving as members-at-large for the Seminar will be held at the Washington mittee once again pulled together an last two years . Jill Cooley began her Marriott Georgetown in Washington, outstanding technical program . term a couple of months early when DC, USA . Sponsored by the INMM Pack- Prior to the opening plenary, a brief Joyce had to step down upon receiving aging, Transportation, and Disposition awards and recognitions ceremony was Senate confirmation of her nomination Technical Division in partnership with held . The ceremony is covered in the to chair the Defense Nuclear Facilities U .S . Nuclear Infrastructure Council, this report on the annual meeting that fol- Safety Board . Congratulations, Joyce! annual event specifically targets key is- lows, however, I wanted to highlight and Brian has recently taken a position at the sues in spent fuel management and is congratulate the four new Fellows of IAEA . Good luck to both of you and we international in scope . the Institute: Melanie May, Joe Rivers, all hope you continue to stay active in the A Technical Meeting on Nuclear En- Mark Schanfein, and Ken Sorenson . The Institute in whatever capacity you can . ergy and Cyber Security will be held in
2 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1
Annapolis, Maryland, USA, April 17-19, professional society that covers the 2016 . This meeting is jointly sponsored breadth of technical and policy issues 2015-2016 INMM by the INMM, the U .S . Naval Academy, addressing the production, use, storage, Executive Committee and the American Nuclear Society . transport, handling, protection, safe- President: Larry Satkowiak And, of course, let’s not forget guards, security, accounting—essentially Vice President: Corey Hinderstein INMM 57th Annual Meeting, July 24-28, all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle . Peo- Secretary: Chris Pickett 2016, at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis, ple who are engaged in the INMM, give Treasurer: Robert Curl Atlanta, Georgia, USA . Mark your calen- papers, attend the workshops and con- Immediate Past President: dars, submit your abstracts, make your ferences, and become members, really Ken Sorenson reservations, and I will see you there! understand the value of the Institute . By For additional information on any of people, I mean all of you members . The Members-at-Large: these events please check the INMM membership is the Institute . In order to Jill Cooley website at www .inmm .org . make the Institute stronger I want each Cary Crawford one of you to become an INMM Ambas- Ken Sanders INMM Ambassadors sador . Reach out to your colleagues, em- Steven Wyrick As I had mentioned earlier, the EC is de- ployees, employers, funding agencies, veloping strategies to increase participa- etc ., and talk to them about the value of tion and membership in the Institute . In the INMM . That is how I got engaged in reality, professional societies succeed if INMM more than twenty years ago; my they add value to the communities they colleagues encouraged me to attend an serve . In the nuclear materials manage- annual meeting and present a paper . The ment community the INMM is the only rest is history .
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 3 Technical Editor’s Note
Providing Up-to-date Information
By Dennis Mangan INMM Technical Editor
This issue of the Journal focuses on the of questions regarding his speech . Am- sion was very interesting, and this article 56th Annual INMM Meeting held in bassador Grossi’s speech was recorded, reflects the transcription of the recording Indian Wells, California, USA, July 12-15, as were the questions and answers the of the discussion . 2015 . followed . The transcription makes for INMM President Larry Satkowiak interesting, informative, and excellent Our regular features also opens the issue with a informative col- reading . appear in this issue of JNMM: umn he appropriately notes as “A Time Following the Plenary Session, A Book Review by Mark Maiello, who of Changes .” It’s a straightforward and meeting’s technical program began . A did his usual excellent description in dis- brief discussion on recent changes in the lunchtime event involves a Roundtable cussing the contents of Command and INMM . discussion with the plenary speaker that Control, by Eric Schlosser . He writes, Teressa McKinney, chair of INMM involves a question and answer by many in part, “We have never experienced Technical Program Committee, which INMM members from members of the an unplanned detonation either within has responsibilities for the execution of INMM Executive Committee, JNMM the borders of the United States or in a the Annual meeting, provides an excel- Associate Editors, who help with the foreign land that is over-flown with U .S . lent summary of recent Annual Meeting . development of issues of this Journal . nuclear weapon,” and how fortunate we It is worth reading to get a feeling for (The list of the participants are listed on are . He captures a book that many of us all the areas involved in the meeting . It page 17 . It is a broad group .) . As with the would like to read, I’m sure . also highlights the recipients of several plenary speech and the questions and In Taking the Long View in a Time of INMM awards . answers that followed, the Roundtable Great Uncentainty, Jack Jekowski does The Opening Plenary Session in- discussion was recorded . Its transcrip- a beautiful job identifying and discussing volved an speech by Dr . Rafael Mariano tion likewise reflects an interesting and a World Full of Critical Uncertainties Grossi, Ambassador of the Argentine informative discussion definitely worth and what can be done . Republic to Austria and permanent rep- reading . In closing, this is an excellent is- resentative to the international organiza- The final event at the meeting that sue of the Journal . I trust you will enjoy tions in Vienna . Larry Satkowiak intro- involved a question-and-answer atmo- reading it . If you have any questions or duced Dr . Grossi,who gave an excellent sphere was the Closing Plenary Ses- comments, please contact me . I can be talk on concerns resulting from events sion. Three speakers made presenta- reached at dennismangan@comcast .net such as Fukushima . After the speech, tions on the topic of Exercise—Not Just Satkowiak and INMM Vice President Co- for the Gym, which was followed by a rey Hinderstein asked Dr . Grossi a couple question-and-answer session . This ses-
4 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 Annual Meeting
Report of the 56th INMM Annual Meeting Indian Wells, California USA, July 12–16, 2015
Teressa McKinney Chair, INMM Technical Program Committee
We have all experienced many changes since our last annual meeting, but one thing remains the same—we had anoth- er great meeting! We experienced many modifications including a change in the INMM management company (The Sher- wood Group merged with Kellen in early 2015) and changes in INMM adminis- tration (the addition of Executive Direc- tor Aaron Adair and Administrator Amy Lydic) . But despite those changes, the Louise Worrall receives the Early Career Award Steve Bellamy receives the 2015 Edway R . staff once again contributed to an out- from INMM President Larry Satkowiak Johnson Meritorious Service Award INMM standing annual meeting . We were very President Larry Satkowiak happy to have Meetings Manager Kim Santos with us at the annual meeting as well as Conference Director Lyn Maddox and Marketing Communications Director Patricia Sullivan . Without all their hard work behind the scenes we would not have experienced such a special event . Thanks to each of you for your dedica- tion and contributions . The Executive Committee met on Saturday before the annual meeting to Michael Rosenthal receives the 2015 Vincent Yung Liu receives the 2015 Vincent J . DeVito discuss details that occurred throughout J . DeVito Award from INMM President Larry Award from INMM President Larry Satkowiak the past year . This typically is our largest Satkowiak EC meeting since most members are also in attendance at the annual meet- to organize the registration committee • 2015 INMM Early Career Award: ing . Sunday always proves to be a very this year!) All of the technical divisions Louise Worrall, Oak Ridge National busy day with all the extra events that met on Sunday afternoon before the Laboratory take place: Containment and Surveil- President’s Reception . The President’s • 2015 Edway R. Johnson Meritori- lance Working Group, Destructive Analy- Reception provides an opportunity for ous Service Award: Steve Bellamy, ses Working Group, and ANSI/INMM all participants to meet-and-greet with Savannah River National Laboratory 5 .1 Analytical Chemistry Laboratory our vendors and sponsors . We sincerely • 2015 Vincent J. DeVito Distin- Measurement Control Committee . Tom appreciate all our vendors and sponsors guished Service Awards: Yung Liu, Bonner and his registration team opened that participated throughout the week . Argonne National Laboratory and the registration desk and were available Monday morning began with INMM Michael Rosenthal, NNSS Consulting throughout the remainder of the week . award presentations before the opening LLC (Many thanks to Tom for stepping up plenary speaker . The awardees were:
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 5 Details regarding each of the sions that continued throughout the day . awards can be found on INMM’s web- The poster session began a little earlier site . Please take a few moments to read in the day in order to accommodate a about the recipients’ outstanding accom- longer viewing opportunity for attend- plishments . Congratulations to all! ees . The poster presenters had great at- The Opening Plenary Speaker, Ra- tendance during this session and were fael Mariano Grossi, Ambassador of pleased with the challenging questions Argentina to the International Atomic they were asked from attendees . The Energy Agency, and chair of the Nuclear Annual Business Meeting was held on Suppliers Group, gave a very captivat- Tuesday evening and the results of the ing session titled, The Nuclear Equa- New INMM Fellow Melanie May is congratulated executive committee elections were an- tion: From Fukushima to Teheran and by INMM President Larry Satkowiak nounced . The results are Larry Satkowiak, Beyond—Challenges and Opportunities . President; Corey Hinderstein, Vice Presi- The Opening Plenary Subcommittee dent; Chris Pickett, Secretary; Bob Curl, (Joyce Connery, Steve Mladineo, Larry Treasurer, and Members-at-Large Jill Satkowiak, and Corey Hinderstein) once Cooley and Kenneth Sanders . The outgo- again suggested an outstanding plenary ing Executive Committee Members-at- speaker . Keep sending the great sugges- Large, Joyce Connery and Brian Boyer, tions! A transcript of the opening plenary were recognized as well . session and the Roundtable Discussion Three Resolutions of Respect were with our plenary speaker are published read honoring our late INMM colleagues: in this issue of JNMM . Jeff Jay, Ruth Duggan, and Carl Bennett . The technical sessions began imme- The new INMM Senior Members diately after the opening plenary . The full New INMM Fellow Joe Rivers is congratulated were announced during the Business by INMM President Larry Satkowiak program included 297 oral presentations, Meeting . They are Kerry Dunn, Jeff Eng- thirty-six posters, during fifty-two concur- land, Hironobu Nakamura, Ben Watts, rent sessions that included three panel and Steven Wyrick . discussions . We had more than 630 in INMM recognized several new Fel- attendance from twenty-nine countries . lows of the Institute . They are Melanie The Technical Program Committee once May, Joe Rivers, Mark Schanfein, and again pulled together a superb technical Ken Sorenson . Congratulations to you all . program . I heard many positive com- The technical program continued on ments throughout the week . Thank you, Wednesday and it was another busy day technical division chairs, for your hard filled with papers and lunch meetings . work on the technical program: • Morris Hassler, Facility Operations Closing Plenary • Michael Whitaker, International Safe- Thursday technical sessions were con- New INMM Fellow Mark Schanfein is guards congratulated by INMM President Larry ducted throughout most of the day, and • Mike Baker, Material Control and Satkowiak in the afternoon we featured our Clos- Accountability • Jeff England, Packaging, Transporta- ing Plenary Session: Exercise— Not Just • Mona Dreicer, Nonproliferation and tion and Disposition For the Gym: How to Strengthen Your Arms Control Several brave souls gathered on Organization’s Muscles Through Table- • Tom Bonner, Nuclear Security and Tuesday morning as part of the traditional top and Other Real World Exercises . Physical Protection unofficial early morning run . Everyone Panelists were Carla Boyce, Director of was back in time for the technical ses- the National Exercises Division, Federal
6 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 Emergency Management Agency; Dan- 2nd Place Nonproliferation and Arms Control – iel Johnson, WINS Academy Manager, Materials Control and Accountability Paper #117, Bilateral Nuclear Coopera- World Institute for Nuclear Security; and Paper #299, Sensitivity Analysis of Neu- tion in the Post-Cold War Era and Its Im- Rob Anderson, Counselor for Political Af- tron Multiplicity Counting Statistics Us- plication for Nuclear Nonproliferation, by fairs at the Royal Netherlands Embassy . ing First Order Perturbation Theory for Viet Phuong Nguyen, Korea Advanced This was a very dynamic panel with dif- a Subcritical Plutonium Benchmark, by Institute of Science and Technology ferent perspectives on how exercises Sean O’Brien, North Carolina State Uni- can strengthen organizations . The Clos- versity Nuclear Security and Physical Protec- ing Plenary Subcommittee introduced tion – Tie this panel during the INMM 56th Annual 1st Place Poster Paper #221, Large Volume Organic Liq- Meeting with hopes to present a special Poster #369 Nuclear Reactor Antineu- uid Scintillation Detectors as a Vehicle INMM exercise during the 57th Annual trino Directionality via Elastic Electron Radiation Portal Monitor Prototype at the Meeting . Stay tuned for details about Scattering in a Gd-doped Water Cheren- 3rd SCINTILLA Benchmark Campaign, this interactive experience during the kov Detector by Daniel Hellfeld, Texas by Marc Ruch, University of Michigan next annual meeting . A&M After the closing plenary session, Paper #361, Game Theoretic Modeling INMM President Larry Satkowiak and Division Winners of Physical Protection System Design Vice President Corey Hinderstein an- Education and Training – Paper #380, Encompassing Insider Threat Analysis, nounced the J . D . Williams Student Pa- Public Education During Commissioning by Kyo-Nam Kim, Korea Advanced Insti- per Award winners: and Operation of a Nuclear Power Plant tute of Science and Technology in India, by Dhaivat Mandavia, Delhi 1st Place Technological University Please continue to provide feedback Materials Control and Accountability regarding what you found most interest- Paper #109, Simulation Study for Detec- International Safeguards – Paper #447, ing or what you did not like about the tion of Pin Diversion with Differential Integration of Simulated Electrochemis- annual meeting . We appreciate all your Die-Away Instrument Using Fresh Fuel, try Data into a General Pyroprocessing comments and can only improve if you by Alison Goodsell, Texas A&M Mass Accountancy Model, for Signature provide feedback . Believe it or not, we Based Safeguards Applications, by Philip are already working very hard on the 57th Lafreniere, University of New Mexico annual meeting, so mark your calendar to attend July 24-28, 2016, at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis . I look forward to see- ing you there!
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 7 Annual Meeting
Opening Plenary Session: The Nuclear Equation: From Fukushima to Teheran and Beyond — Challenges and Opportunities 56th INMM Annual Meeting July 13, 2015
The following is a transcript of the Opening Plenary Speech at the 56th INMM Annual Meeting, followed by some questions from INMM President Larry Satkowiak and INMM Vice President Corey Hin- derstein.
Larry Satkowiak: I’d like to introduce our plenary speaker; Dr . Rafael Mariano Grossi is Ambassador of the Argentine Republic to Austria and permanent rep- resentative to the international organi- zations in Vienna . Ambassador Grossi Opening Plenary Speaker Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi, INMM Vice President Corey holds a PhD in history and international Hinderstein, and INMM President Larry Satkowiak relations from the University of Geneva, joined the Argentine Foreign Service in has represented Argentina at a number conference, with this audience . It really 1985 beginning a series of national and of international meetings and summits humbles me to be talking to so many ex- international positions . From 1998 to including the first committee of the Gen- perts in areas where I have been work- 2001, Dr . Grossi was representative of eral Assembly of the United Nations, ing from a different angle, a different Argentina to NATO and SHAPE . From review conference of the treaties for perspective perhaps . But basically the 2002 to 2007 he served as Chief of Cabi- nuclear nonproliferation, Sea Bed Denu- same issues . And from the title of my net in the office of the Director General clearization and Biological Weapons . At remarks, you may gather what my in- of the Organization for the Prohibition of present he is the chairman of the Nuclear tentions are . My intentions are to try to Chemical Weapons in The Hague . Suppliers’ Group for the period of 2014 highlight what I believe are the current Dr . Grossi has extensive experience to 2015, and he has led as president the challenges, the current issues that are in nuclear disarmament and nonprolif- Diplomatic Conference to Amend the shaping the nuclear agenda these days . eration affairs and diplomacy including Convention on Nuclear Safety . When I say from Fukushima to Te- as director general for political coordina- Ambassador Grossi will offer some heran and beyond, I have in mind a num- tion at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of prepared remarks and then Corey and I ber of things . Of course nuclear safety Argentina from 2008 to 2009 . In January will have a discussion with him about the and all of the problems and the work re- 2010 he was appointed Chief of Cabinet many areas of nuclear materials man- lated to it is one, and I hope to discuss in the office of the Director General of agement in which his career has so far this with you . The mention that is so ob- the International Atomic Energy Agency involved him . Please join me in welcom- vious, especially on a day like this where (IAEA) and from 2001 to June 2013 he ing Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi an agreement might be announced was the Assistant Director General for to the stage . on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, policy of the IAEA . points to the strategic dimensions of From 2009 to 2010, Ambassador Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi: these problems and beyond because it Grossi was Argentine Sous-Sherpa for Good morning to all . It’s a real pleasure is quite clear that in spite of all the chal- the Nuclear Security Summit . Dr . Grossi to be here with you with this fantastic lenges, in spite of the problems, nuclear
8 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 over the place . In this country, construc- sible to gather and master the political tion of new nuclear power plants contin- will to do something in the absence of ues and in Europe as well in spite of the what is perceived as a need to do it . But, problems associated and the debates as- of course, after Chernobyl, after Fuku- sociated with the post-Fukushima situa- shima, and there were other smaller but tion . Russia is a very clear case . China still important instances like Goiania, like of course sited everywhere with twenty- Tomsk, that we all know and are familiar eight units in construction as we speak . with that prompted or facilitated a move India, solid progress, six new builds at in the tectonic plates, so to speak, of the the moment . South Korea, still 20 per- nuclear safety equation . cent of their national electricity produc- Quite clearly, after the Fukushima tion . In Latin America, my own region, accident we had one such moment . Af- plants continue . Argentina just started a ter that experience, there were a num- new nuclear power plant, a fourth is be- ber of institutional and national reactions . Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi ing built . Two more are being considered I think that within hours many around energy continues to be and will continue in Brazil as well a third nuclear power the world knew more or less what the to be a very important part of the interna- plant has been completed and others problems were and what needed to be tional scene in the years to come . may come later . done . Of course, institutions take a little People used to talk about — and it Then on top of this, we have of bit more time to react . But the reaction became a cliché in the past few years — course a layer of what we know as the did not wait for long . Already in June of a nuclear renaissance . Nobody ever newcomers, those countries that have that year a ministerial conference was defined clearly what that meant . But in been aspiring some hope for many years convened in Vienna at the IAEA and an any case what we know is that nuclear to accede to the benefits of nuclear en- action plan was agreed . We are waiting energy with more than 440 reactors in ergy generation . And we see that hap- for that . Many countries including the more than thirty countries continues to pening . Clearly the United Arab Emirates United States and some in other parts be a very clear part of the energy mix in building is well underway with four units . of the world started with back feeds and many places . Whichever source or pro- And in other countries including, in the concrete action to improve the safety of jection you may wish to look at, be it to Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt having nuclear facilities . the IAEA or any other think tank or aca- revived its plans to go for nuclear after a The IAEA in particular agreed on demic piece that you may read, you will few years . So this very, very rapid, over- a plan that focused on a number of ar- see that nuclear continues to present the view tells us that the situation that we eas where the international community triple advantage of lowering emissions, have in terms of nuclear energy around agreed there could be some collective improving security of energy supply, and the world is quite active . action . Those referred to very general, providing large-scale electricity at stable We have three axes that I believe generic issue areas like having more use production costs . could help us in analyzing how this could of the peer review system that exists So this means that nuclear energy evolve, what we should do as policymak- in the IAEA, working together better on is there to stay and this means for us, ers and where the challenges are . These emergency preparedness and response, for you as practitioners, as experts for areas in my perception are safety, secu- looking at the safety standards . As you policymakers, that we need to deal with rity, and nonproliferation . know, the IAEA through its commit- the challenges, with the problems asso- The first, in my opinion, is nuclear tee on safety standards sets those and ciated with it, with the complexities that safety . It is in the nature, perhaps it’s in those are not binding but they do have come with such an important industry . human nature, but in particular in nucle- more than a moral, a practical force and What I just said in terms of the continuity ar, that the safety equation evolves every they are applied to the letter in many, if is proven by the fact that renaissance or time we have a problem or a crisis . Per- not all, countries . So, that was an area not, the activity continues . We see it all haps it is inevitable, perhaps it’s impos- where work started also .
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 9 In some parts of the world like in Europe, a directive was approved clearly stating new obligations and objectives for countries in terms of the way in which nuclear power plants would be designed, sited, built, and operated . And introducing also the idea of more peer reviews at a regional level providing for safety assessments, more regular ac- tivity of this type . As we can see, there was some institutional reaction to what had happened and at the same time, as I said, countries started to work on what needed to be done . One has to recognize that in the area of nuclear safety, we don’t have Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi in legal terms an instrument that would indicate in clear terms how nuclear fa- cilities should be built or certain obliga- ing this incentive instrument into an of the moment and those, including the tions should be laid out in an obligatory obligatory instrument . So changing, if United States, Russia, India, China, who fashion . What we do have is something you want, the nature of it and making believed that that would not be such a called the Convention on Nuclear Safety it obligatory . Or making obligatory that good idea, that changing the instrument (CNS) . This Convention on Nuclear Safe- states would make sure that in the way would take us to an uncertain territory ty, painfully negotiated a few years ago, they would design and build nuclear where we, until or pending the entry into ended up being an incentive instrument . power plants, radioactive releases would force of any agreed language or provi- When I say incentive what I mean is that be avoided and so on and so forth . Of sions in the convention, we would have countries should do certain things, this course for technical people like you, this a very ambiguous, unclear regime where is the legal and semantical way to put raises lots of questions I’m sure and that countries would not know exactly what what the obligations are in terms of that was the case also in Vienna for the po- applies to whom . instrument and that to make sure, or per- litical technical mix that we have there . A little bit for those familiar with haps not to make sure, to see what’s go- There were lots of questions about what the situation around the area of nuclear ing on . Again, a peer review mechanism needed to be done . I happen to be cho- security, what happens with the conven- would be established to see to it that sen as the president of the diplomatic tion on the physical protection of nuclear countries will be observing what would conference that needed to look into this materials task an amendment that has be happening . proposal and see what had to be done . not yet entered into force because of Of course, after something so dra- And that was a very difficult moment, the lack of the required ratifications . So matic like the Fukushima accident, im- I would say, for our international safety we have a very difficult situation there . mediately all eyes were turned to this community, if you allow me to describe And I, as president of that process, saw convention and the mechanisms to see it like this . Because what we saw imme- it as an opportunity to move forward in whatever could be done to address the diately was that there was a very, very a different way . Because what I felt in issues, to see what needed to be im- deep divide between those, of course, talking to colleagues, and let me remind proved and try to do something about it . the sponsor of the initiative and some of you that this convention has only sev- In 2013 or beginning of 2014 Swit- our friends in Europe that believed that enty-seven contracting parties, all the zerland introduced a proposal for an changing the instrument was the way nuclear countries plus some others that amendment of that convention, mak- to go, was the future, and the obligation follow these issues with interest . In this
10 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 community of seventy-seven what I saw previous crisis as triggers for action . think we owe it to ourselves and to the were people telling me no, no, no, we After Chernobyl two, not one but two, international community out there, if this are all convinced we have to do some- conventions were agreed at record- industry is going to thrive and to contin- thing about nuclear safety . The problem breaking time in Vienna: one on the early ue in the way we all hope . So, nuclear was there was a disagreement on what notification on nuclear accidents and the safety is, I wouldn’t say a pending, but to do . In the end, as good diplomacy in- other on international cooperation after a an open issue . One that is ongoing, one dicates, there was a middle ground that nuclear accident, two conventions . that needs constant attention and we was the challenge of the president and, When Fukushima happened, I was are far from where we could be given a of course, with the help of the commu- in the Agency . I was assistant director bit more resolve . This is safety . nity . And that middle ground took the general for policy . These conventions Security, and there are very distin- form and the shape of what we know were not invoked . No one thought that guished colleagues here, Joyce (Con- in Vienna as the Vienna Declaration on these conventions had any use . On the nery) and others that are working on that . Nuclear Safety which agreed on a num- contrary, if you allow me a personal com- The nuclear security area I believe is one ber of principles that countries need to ment, my impression was that people where we can look back a few years and observe in designing and fabricating and wanted them to be, I don’t know, set say we are now at a much better place constructing their nuclear power plants . aside, forgotten . There was nothing than we were before . And we owe this And on top of that this Vienna Dec- useful that in the face of something like to the Nuclear Security Summit in Wash- laration agreed on how to reinvigorate, Fukushima could be derived from that ington in April 2010 . Let me say that in how to give more meaning, and how convention . Of course, if you have a con- years past even the competence of the to give real influence and real, I would vention on early notification, which was IAEA on security matters was challenged say, importance to the review mecha- conceived at a time where the Soviet in the Board of Governors consistently nism that we had . If you remember I Union existed and now we were watch- and systematically . Not only that the is- mentioned that this was an incentive ing the accident unfold from the screen sue was still a problem in itself, but the convention . So this incentive regime of your phone or your smartwatch . competence of our Agency was being that we had to make it stronger and to What’s the use of having that conven- put to the test . So I think the great, the introduce, if you allow me, an element tion? enormous benefit that we took from that of accountability . Perhaps you will still The same for international coop- process was that an issue, a relatively not have a legal obligation stemming eration . Another thing, a very disturbing obscure issue, that was left to practitio- from the legal text but we hope that in thing, a very worrisome thing I saw is ners was put really up in the agenda of this process that we have started we that in the early days after the accident, politicians around the world . So I believe will have improved the regime . There offers for help could not materialize be- that this is an area where we must be is going to be a followup meeting that cause of issues like insurance, like logis- grateful and take pride in the efforts that we are organizing in Argentina . I felt it tics that were not there . When people have been made . was my obligation as president to offer and many countries were coming with Fifteen metric tons, I believe, of HEU a venue to continue this discussion and help to assist Japan at the time of trag- (highly enriched uranium) have been ei- we are aiming at a review meeting of edy, we could witness incredibly ridicu- ther down-blended or eliminated around the CNS in a year or so . So this is pretty lous, I would say, bureaucratic problems the world since then, perhaps it’s more . much a work in progress . in front of this . And when you compare that with the fig- The CNS is there . It has been As you can see, there is a lot in ures, remember Iran, with the amounts shaken . We have to recognize that and terms of the legal international coopera- that are so essential and so hotly de- we have to work better to make sure that tion apparatus that needs to be looked bated on the negotiations with Iran, well we do have an international response to at after something like Fukushima . So this amount was enough for 500 nuclear a situation like that of Fukushima . But my hope is that in the near future we bombs maybe . And thanks to this pro- that is not the only case . For example, will be able to tackle these things in a cess we don’t have that danger anymore . and I was mentioning this issue of the practical way and provide with better, I The process continued and I believe next
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 11 year it will come full circle when people ity to evolve yet again, to take another And of course, God willing, we do meet again in Washington to close this step forward through what has been—it have at the end of today or in the next cycle of high-level meetings . has received different names—the last few days a good agreement with Iran, The challenge there or the open one has been the state-level concept there will be an enormous, a huge bur- question there is: what next? And we of the implementation of safeguards at den on the shoulders of the Agency need to make sure that we provide the the state level . Meaning by this new ap- that will have to adapt to that, that will institutional channels to continue this proach to safeguards, whereby inspec- have to take this without forgetting that process in the best possible way . In my tors would not limit themselves to ob- Iran is but one country . There is a lot of humble opinion there is an awful lot of serving certain technical criteria having nuclear material out there that needs to groupings and institutions dealing with been agreed by countries, but also would be taken care of . And the world can be nuclear security and perhaps too much try also to integrate other sources of in- a difficult place . So this will have huge law may confuse the countries that are formation to have a bigger picture, so to consequences and yet again, a need for dealing with this issue so we may need speak . This issue I must say has been a the Agency in the future to integrate this to refocus and take stock of this great bit controversial because of some legal big challenge and this program that will political success we’ve had . This is the implications that may derive from it be- come to it as we see and read in the second area I wanted to talk about . cause of deposition of certain countries papers, perhaps for ten years, perhaps The third area has to do with non- that would not be sure of what the im- more . In any case it is a program changer proliferation . And I would like to do it plications of this would be vis-a-vis their situation that will have to be looked at in using two axes . One is the issue of respective safeguards agreements . The India now . safeguards, we have many experts on discussion continues . What is encouraging The last point and one as in safety that from the Agency or from the United is that one can see that there is a recog- in which I had the privilege, and I do States and other countries in the hall . I’m nition that the safeguards system of the have the privilege of playing some role, sure that this is something that will elicit IAEA needs to be protected, needs to be is the issue of export controls . Quite some dialog . And the other is the one of reinforced, needs to be more efficient, clearly the work of the Nuclear Suppliers export controls . These two in my opinion and needs to deliver what we all need . Group (NSG) becomes more and more are the ones that we need to be looking The way to do this may be the ob- relevant . Not the work of the group in at in the next few years . ject of discussion in the years to come, itself . Export control: controlling what In the area of safeguards, again but quite clearly there is an area that will happens in the real world, irrespective as was the case for nuclear safety, the require attention . For this I believe that of who does it or which is the grouping international community has had this is crucial, very important to have a very who does it . Incidentally this is what we practice of reacting in the face of a big open dialog between the IAEA secretar- have . The NSG is what we have . But this problem . And this was the case in the iat and member states . Every time the NSG that came out of I would say a very area of safeguards where after the very safeguards system improved or evolved, small group of countries back in 1974-75 traumatic experience of Iraq where the it was done as a collective effort . There in London known as the London Club, a abuse of the safeguards system was put is no way you can have an improvement very small group has grown into some- to evidence, the international communi- in the safeguards area without the full in- thing that has almost fifty countries and ty reacted and reinforced the safeguards volvement and conviction of those who has an Argentine chair, so a different systems and mechanisms through the are inspected . There is no way around world from what used to be in the ‘70s . adoption of the Additional Protocol and it . We saw that in India and I don’t want Quite clearly irrespective of the other things in terms of systems, in to get too much into the details of that, nuclear agreements and the safeguards terms of the way safeguards were im- but let’s say this issue had a rocky start that we may have in place, countries plemented in countries . and then it was improved . My hope, as a trade and countries may steal and will In the past few years there has former staff member, now as a governor, steal to try to circumvent the norms that been a debate going on in the Agency is that this dialog will continue because are out there . And we see it every day and in safeguards circles on the possibil- there is a need . in the Nuclear Suppliers Group . The big
12 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 challenging questions we can pose . And also just get his perspective . As he said, he’s been not just an observer but really a participant in some of the major events that have occurred in our field on the in- ternational, political, and diplomatic level as well as in his work connecting to the technical community .
Larry Satkowiak: I think several times you mentioned the potential deal with Iran . What are the implications for the IAEA if a deal is reached and if a deal is not reached what are the implications?
Rafael Mariano Grossi: Thank you very Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi much . I think the agreement with Iran challenge for this group is to continue to put in a catchy phrase by saying, NSG: quite clearly would not be possible if be relevant as a technical group . I was be legal or be real . Many people say how the Agency was not there . That is a first in a very interesting conversation yes- come the NSG does not include India . point that we need to bear in mind . The terday in the sessions; I was addressing That is currently trading in more than 200 role of course, this is a political negotia- these issues of the interfaces between items in the lists . Of course, others with tion which is recognized of course by the the technical and the political or diploma- the same conviction and perhaps in their Agency . The Agency is not part of these cy and science and I think the NSG and own right might say, no, no, no if we do negotiations but the Agency will be and is the way it operates is a perfect example this we are challenging the tenets, the the only credible guarantor of whatever is of that where politicians and diplomats pillars of the NSG, which were to rein- going to be agreed . Without it, you would need to know exactly what they are aim- force the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty not have a possibility of simply having it ing at, need to understand exactly what by providing technical definitions of what because you look at the configuration of they need to be looking at . This is not needs to be checked, not an easy ques- the P5+1 group and you will easily rec- easy because this is a multilateral group tion to be answered . But clearly one that ognize that there could not be an agree- with different persuasions represented will need to be answered . ment within that group on how this could and consensus is not always easy . It’s a So as we can see, a lot of issues in be agreed . You could not have a group of group that operates on the basis of con- front of us . A lot of questions from Fuku- technical people from those countries as sensus . shima to Teheran and beyond and I hope a detachment or something like that, that We have for the first time a dedicat- you found these remarks interesting and could be performing that role . So, every- ed technical group that is working there perhaps worthy of further discussions body recognizes that that is there . with us trying to tell us what are the im- with you . Thank you very much . At the same time we shouldn’t for- provements that we need to introduce get that there is a pilot in process to the to the lists that we need to bear in mind Corey Hinderstein: What we have now P5+1 process where the agency and Iran when addressing nuclear trade . is some time where Larry and I will have have been working for a number of years There is also the very big and diffi- a little discussion with Ambassador Gros- on a set of separate issues . They have cult challenge of including in the group si . He gave us a lot of food for thought, been grouped in what is called now the countries that are not signatories or par- touching on really all areas of our Insti- framework for cooperation . It has also ties to the NPT (Nonproliferation Treaty) . tute . I think there are a lot of issues that received many other names in the past . The question would be perhaps could be we can press him on a little more, some And under this set of issues the Agency
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 13 has been working also in a dedicated in on the question of Iran because in my have a very clear set of measures and manner, apart from this . So there are like mind I had questions if the deal was powers . three legs to this, apart from what is the reached and questions if the deal wasn’t The Additional Protocol of course normal day to day inspection effort going reached . I didn’t know which to ask . You provides a broader tool for the Agency on in Iran . read the news this morning that there for international inspectors to integrate, You have these three things . On the may be a vetted deal that was reached to have more access to things, and to in- day-to-day business I would say little will but we don’t know what it is . tegrate more information . change . There will be technical adapta- It touches on what you mentioned, In the case of the Additional Protocol tions of course because we are going to which is this time of uncertainly . There’s (AP) class issue that you are referring to, have facilities that if one has to believe another area of uncertainty that is relat- this is a clear recognition of the fact that what one reads in the papers, there will ed to Iran but not directly to application we did have moments like in 2009 where be dramatic change for example, in the of safeguards in Iran . And that is, looking the revelation of lots of undeclared activ- reactor in Iraq . So you will have to look back at what happened after Iraq in the ity was that they had been doing things into that in a different way and the facili- early ‘90s and the recognition that the that they should have been declaring and ties will be operating at a different pace system needed to be improved and the that they should have been putting under and with different configurations . So that evolution of the Additional Protocol out their inspections regime . One may say will have a direct impact on the inspec- of that, are there lessons that we should yes, more is needed . At the same time we tion effort out in the field . That is one . be taking out of the Iranian situation, do have political realities and neither the On the framework for cooperation not for Iran but for how we think about Agency nor I think any country could have itself, there is a huge political question the safeguards mission more broadly? I the ability to roam around countries around which even if implemented by the Agen- don’t think we have as pivotal a moment the world looking for the impossible . cy, will be resolved at the political table in the sense of discovery of a lot of activ- As the Romans used to say, summa and this has to do with the infamous ity . But we have slowly seen this defini- ius, summa iniuria . If you take the law possible PMD issues—possible military tion, for example, of Additional Protocol to the extreme you get into a very diffi- dimensions . And this is a bit, the group Plus and the application of Additional cult situation where you’ll be, and I think of issues that have to do with the past Protocols Plus in Iran . And some have Hans Blix said it much better than I said activities . And as we all know, this is not questioned if we need to do that in Iran, it now when he said, we couldn’t sim- only about only what happened, but for do we need to do that more broadly . Can ply go around looking for the impossible . many experts this also may give indica- you tie that issue into what you were What we need to make sure is that we tions of ongoing activity or future activ- also talking about when you mentioned have a system with the Additional Pro- ity . So there is, I wouldn’t speculate, all the evolution of safeguards with a state- tocol or without for those countries that we know is that this issue is also being level concept, etc .? seem to be having a CSA, that will func- discussed . tion well and that the safeguards depart- And on the agreement in itself, in Ambassador Grossi: It’s an excellent ment will have the ability to analyze as my remarks I pointed to the vastness of question but one that has many ramifi- much information as it possibly can to the inspection effort that will descend cations I would say . When you referred have early warnings of situations . upon the safeguards department when about Iraq, of course, in UN Security My impression is that when you this materializes . Which will require, I’m Council Resolution 687 scenario, every- look at the safeguards, the way coun- sure, institutional adaptations and of thing is clear I would say . Of course, tries have been behaving, you will see course money . This is all part of the dis- nothing is clear and it was awfully dif- that by and large the system has been cussion that will need to be maintained ficult . But in terms of the mandates, in functioning pretty well . In the cases in Vienna . terms of your capacity to move around, that we know that put problems were you have everything you need . Of cases with geostrategic challenges Hinderstein: I wanted to touch on an- course, challenges will be there and in and problems where this issue while other area and I’m glad that Larry jumped some cases even danger . But you do very, very disturbing did not come as
14 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 a total surprise . So I think one has to with them, and the lifting of sanctions, This is, of course, not public infor- come in to combine these things in which has been the main driver of the mation but for those working in that, that a reasonable way . To create a super- whole process . I believe this is what we is very clear when you look at the figures agency that will be looking under each are going to see . We shouldn’t forget that and the trade . table will be very difficult and would, if this is happening, if we have something as I say, distract from the main effort . that goes beyond the Additional Protocol, Hinderstein: I’m going to ask one more But quite clearly cases like Iran and the it’s not because this is something that is question . I wanted to pick up on Larry’s Additional Protocol Plus (AP+) indicate systemically necessary . It’s because Iran point, changing the topic to the NSG . that there needs to be a tailor made was not observing their own obligations . One of the biggest moments of reaction . You cannot say, to be more So we, the international community, must strengthening of the NSG was the re- clear, that because of what happened go and look at those places and make vision of the dual use approach . And I in Iran you will have to go for an AP+ sure that all those undeclared activities think that sustained the NSG relevance system around the world . That would do not repeat themselves . in a time when some were questioning be excessive, costly and perhaps un- It’s a fascinating situation . We’ll whether they were missing an important necessary . One has to be reasonable . have to see how it goes . But quite clearly element . So, my question is looking for- At the same time the international one that will become at least for this ward . Is the NSG well positioned, are the community needs to be reactive . The country, a semi-permanent situation . NSG members committed to thinking IAEA needs to be sharp and to come When we talk about ten years or perhaps about the next challenge rather than the back to something which for me it’s even more, there will be a very stringent last one? You mentioned the power of very obvious and it may sound even silly, regime imposed, which I hope will be a catalyzing events to change institutions, but you need to talk . With the slightest very, very powerful deterrent for others whether it be Chernobyl or Fukushima . doubt there has to be a very close inter- who may have the bad idea of cheating . And without a catalyzing event, is the action with countries and the board has NSG in a position to look at things like to take full responsibility for what hap- Satkowiak: Wouldn’t you say that the different approaches to fuel cycles, new pens . And I see, if not a deficit, a need to whole situation in Iran is in a sense an kinds of dual use commodities, additive do a bit more in that area . example of a failure of the export control manufacturing is one that is brought up regime at that time? And how has it im- regularly . What do you think about that? Satkowiak: You had suggested perhaps proved since then? an Additional Protocol Plus . I know it’s Ambassador Grossi: Thanks for that prohibitively expensive to try to apply Ambassador Grossi: I wouldn’t say so question because it’s something I could this worldwide . Would it be possible to because what’s happened, yes, the work have mentioned and didn’t . Like you negotiate where Iran is placed under a elements of procurement in what hap- said, this fundamental review was a Protocol Plus regime for a short time pe- pened . So in that sense you can say that very thought-out exercise . Took more riod to demonstrate their acceptance of the export control regime may not have than three years and no less than fifty- the international norm, put them on pro- served its purpose . But don’t forget that something amendments to the lists, es- bation so to speak, then they’re released many of the things that they may have pecially the dual use list . But not all were from probation? obtained came from countries that are agreed at technical level . As a result of not part of the NSG, for example . And that we were able to solidify the techni- Ambassador Grossi: In Iran? I think this some others were domestically devel- cal leg to the NSG which was nonexist- is the idea . I think this is the philosophy of oped . So, I wouldn’t say that it was the ing, again, because of political reasons . what is being negotiated which is a very failure of the NSG as such, although I When we started this exercise we didn’t reasonable one . As you know there is this must say, through the NSG you could have the capacity to process the things parallel system of inspection measures, see many of the things that were ongoing that needed to be done . Of course we the Agency corroborating the compliance and still . were getting papers prepared by tech-
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 15 nical . But the technical side was not in- ing, have been undermining it for many, would say, or two . But in general people volved in the exercise so we had like an many years and life goes on . And trade recognize that if you want to be in nucle- ad hoc thing, so countries would not be goes on . And the dangers are still there . ar, that if you want to be serious in bio, scared, in the form of a dedicated techni- Of course, I as chair must be neutral that if you want to be serious in chemi- cal group . But now we were able to give and I’m providing for a dialog . I’m talking cal, you need to be a responsible actor continuity to this . And we have a perma- to these countries, India, Pakistan, and and you need to inform what you do and nent technical experts group . So work Israel, not to name them . And of course how you trade in these issues . So I think continues . You shouldn’t forget that they have an aspiration to join or to be there is some hope even in that area . still it is a multilateral group and so the closer to the group and inside the group technical relevance of issues needs to there is a huge political debate . What is Hinderstein: The hope is nice . I think be approved by all forty-eight countries, good I think is that today and we see it recognizing that we have evolved, that which is a bit of a challenge sometimes . in the work also of the 1540 Commit- security is a fundamental principle . That Because, as we all know, there might be tee, of the MTCR (Missile Technology export controls are a required element of political reasons for countries not want- Control Regime), of the Australia group, the regime . I do think we may be ques- ing to be very sharp about certain things . and of others . I think there is a recogni- tioning how, but we are less often ques- But the process is there . So that is tion that export controls are a necessity . tioning whether we should be approach- one part of the debate . Again, we are at a much better place ing those issues . And the other one is this issue of ex- from where we started when the issue panding or not . The more political thing of export controls was like a bad word Ambassador Grossi: Yes, yes, yes . about the NSG, what I was describing as and would trigger a very, very acidic dis- That’s the right way to put it . this "be legal or be real ." Should we have cussion, whatever you would go for it . all those who need to be there or should Now, with the exception perhaps of Hinderstein: Thank you . I want to thank we adopt an approach which is more one or two countries, I was there in New Ambassador Grossi for his comments . I legalistic, no pejorative connotation to York for the much cited and suffered want to thank all of you for your atten- the word, in the sense that no, the NSG, NPT Review meeting . I was focusing tion and your engagement . That will con- one of your requirements, one of your on the issues . I had an international hat clude our opening plenary session for obligations is to be a party to the NPT like safety and NSG export controls . And today . Please join me in thanking our ple- and if you are not, you are undermining you can see that the debate has changed nary speaker, Ambassador Rafael Grossi . the nonproliferation regime so you don’t completely . And this is a good sign . So Thank you . belong here . The thing is that you have people are not questioning them any- countries there that if they are undermin- more with the exception of one country I
16 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 Annual Meeting
JNMM Roundtable Opening Plenary Speaker: Rafael Mariano Grossi, Ambassador of Argentina to IAEA, Chair of the Nuclear Suppliers Group
Participants: Glenn Abramczyk Teressa McKinney Dennis Mangan JNMM Associate Editor, Packaging, INMM Technical Program Committee JNMM Technical Editor Transportation, and Disposition Chair Markku Koskelo George Baldwin Steve Mladineo JNMM Assistant Technical Editor INMM Communications INMM Plenary Committee Committee Chair Larry Satkowiak Irmie Niemeyer INMM President Jeff Chapman JNMM Associate Editor, International Corey Hinderstein JNMM Associate Editor, Facility Safeguards Operations INMM Vice President Gotthard Stein Chris Pickett Joyce Connery JNMM Associate Editor, International INMM Secretary INMM Plenary Committee Safeguards Robert Curl Leslie Fishbone Loise Worrall INMM Treasurer JNMM Associate Editor, Nonproliferation JNMM Associate Editor, Materials and Arms Control Control and Accountability Ken Sorenson INMM Immediate Past President Jack Jekowski INMM Strategic Planning Committee
The Journal of Nuclear Materials backup generators . They lost cooling and busy agenda back home . As I was telling Management hosts a roundtable discus- it really went pretty bad . I could equate (INMM Vice President) Corey Hinder- sion with the opening plenary speaker the protection of those things both under stein, I have three countries and seven of the INMM Annual Meeting each year . security and safety . I just wonder when international organizations under my re- The discussion is moderated by JNMM people are thinking about this safety, sponsibility but nuclear is in my heart so Technical Editor Dennis Mangan and par- security, and nonproliferation, do they I am very glad to be here . ticipants include the INMM officers and consider putting them together in a nice This issue is a very difficult and the Journal’s associate editors . little package where they look at some- complex one . I mentioned it in passing thing and say, it’s not only security but because of course this theme is so rich, Dennis Mangan: we have to worry about safety and we when I was talking about the merits of Ambassador Grossi, have to worry about the nonproliferation . the security summit since nuclear se- thank you for com- Do you have any feelings about that? curity has proven to be a rather conten- ing . Your presenta- tious issue at the International Atomic tion this morning at Ambassador Grossi: Energy Agency (IAEA) in the past . The the opening plenary Let me first thank first question was how to make it fit in session was very you for the kind invi- within the mandate of the Agency . And good . I think it fit right in with a lot of tation to join this there was no clear or easy answer be- aspects of the INMM with regard to the very select group . I cause the Statute dates back to the ‘50s technologies and the activities we con- mean it when I say and in those days we used to say things duct . I liked your breakout of the safety, that for me this is a in a more simple way, perhaps in fewer security, and nonproliferation, topics very special occasion . It’s not every day words than today . But we meant the with which I think a lot of us can associate . that I have the opportunity to speak in same thing . When you mentioned Fukushima, I front of such a qualified audience . I’m re- So the exact wording of the IAEA thought about how one of the big prob- ally honored . It’s one of the reasons I de- Statute does not reflect nuclear safety lems they had was the breakdown of the cided to stay despite having a pretty as we know it today, but the mandate
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 17 exists . It refers to safety only but clearly the way you deal with things . The point So my question is rather hypotheti- that has to be explained in the present I am trying to make is that nuclear secu- cal and I won’t hold you to any of your context . The idea of nuclear security as rity is at the border with common crime, answer, but would that be a model on a distinct issue was challenged by many trespassing, hence less related to the the safety side, particularly for emergent countries . There was this idea that nu- operation of facilities . countries, not necessarily established re- clear security, was sort of a red herring, actors, but emergent countries that are something that was an invention, not a Joyce Connery: looking to build a nuclear reactor that in real, but an artificial problem . But today Ambassador Grossi, order to transfer that technology and to everyone recognizes that it’s a very, very I want to add my enter into a contract that there would be serious issue that needs to be dealt with . thanks to everyone at least a minimum criteria for that coun- In the beginning the Agency reflect- else’s for your will- try that’s becoming a new entrance to ed this focused approach in a very grad- ingness to come alleviate some of these safety concerns ual way . A small office was all it had to here and your open- and maybe take them to the next level? work on nuclear security, and it was only ness this morning in your remarks . very recently and after long deliberation The question I want to pose to you Grossi: Well, I think it’s a very interesting that it was updated to a division level . stems from a conversation we had last idea . In terms of the newcomers or new en- But this is still a bureaucratic change that night about the convention on nuclear trants, there is one inescapable reference does not necessarily reflect a fundamen- safety, which for the past year has been that is the IAEA Milestones Document tal change in terms of the institutional the bane of my existence with the dip- where different steps are identified from approach . lomatic conference and how that pro- the intention to start a nuclear program to When one looks at the budget fig- ceeded, which you were the president the operation of an NPP . Yours is quite clear- ures, it is even more startling since the of that meeting . The Swiss proposal for ly an attractive idea and the IAEA concept entire budget of the IAEA for nuclear an amendment came out of a very real could mature into a phased process includ- security is less than 6 million Euro . Vol- concern the Swiss had . And obviously ing something like that . In my experience untary contributions have also been within Europe, the proximity of reactors, as (IAEA) ADG (Assistant Director General) forthcoming, but these are by definition some old and some potentially new re- for policy when I was visiting some coun- unpredictable . There has been a relatively actors, are a grave concern to the sur- tries, I saw some serious problems they encouraging development in the estab- rounding countries and so they have a were having with the regulator . Even for lishment of a Nuclear Security Guidance legitimate issue there . Of course, it’s established users . And there is always the committee where member states wish- U .S . policy to oppose amending the con- issue of the independence of the regulator . ing and willing to send an expert can do vention because we just don’t think that Germany has one, also very strong . France so . This has been a useful instrument to going through that diplomatic process has one . But in some important countries start providing policy orientation but it is a would actually result in any additional you don’t have an independent regulator first step and not all countries participate . reduction in risk or safety improvement . worthy of that name . You have a regulator There are other areas where there is But in your other hat you are also or a regulatory function that is still sitting in more specificity especially in the area of the chair of the NSG, which I know has the promotional institution, and it’s a very, nuclear safety . Nuclear security is a wid- a different purpose and it’s not for safety very serious problem . er concept, so anything can be assigned reasons but it’s for security reasons . And This in a way goes back to my com- to it . It reminds me of the debates we when we were having the debate there ment about a future agenda for the IAEA used to have on chemical weapons about enrichment reprocessing, the so- and how we can add some regulatory (CW) about what is a chemical weapon . lution said, which I thought was quite authorities, or some authorities to the Where you have dedicated CWs but at novel, was to set up a criteria-based Agency to help us move that process the same time, if you throw chlorine at approach as to what criteria one would forward . I know there’s a lot of concern someone, it’s a chemical weapon as have to have in order to be the recipient when you talk about giving mandatory well . It depends on the intention and on of enrichment reprocessing . powers to an international entity .
18 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 But quite clearly, and coming back at some point, you will need to verify What the IAEA clearly cannot do, is to to your example, if you don’t have a reg- it . That’s the point in which there is no try and negotiate or create measures in ulator, you cannot run a nuclear power disagreement . I think it’s a matter of the field . It simply does not have such plant . What assurances will people have running the models and see which one mandate . about what is going on? adapts better . I believe that it still makes I think that approach might re- sense to try to embed it in the IAEA . Jack Jekowski: ally work . One could think of the mile- Maybe in a specific form, not simply hav- Ambassador, thank stones “plus” by adding some practical ing a bigger safeguards department . Per- you for your thoughts requirement to have it in place early in haps some semiautonomous or bigger and all of the infor- the nuclear energy induction process . subunit might be needed because there mation you shared By way of example, when I was in the could be specificities and peculiarities in with us today . That Agency, Jordan was very keen on us technical areas that are more applicable not only makes us helping them establish the regulator . to an FMCT (fissile material cutoff treaty) think a lot about what’s going on, but They were really pushing the Agency than to normal safeguards . But I think it’s also worry about it . to give them some help . I don’t know a matter of running the models and see- In doing scenario planning looking where the issue is now . Jordan has ing what makes more sense . at long range futures for organizations, been in this category for many, many Already you remember at the time one my favorite questions I like to ask is, years . So hopefully they will be able to of the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban sounds very simple but it really isn’t . And come to fruition in one way or the other . Treaty) negotiation there was this debate that is, what keeps you awake at night But quite clearly that’s a pending issue . about creating an entirely new technical these days? So thank you for the idea . organization or park the CTBT within the IAEA . At the end of the day there was a Grossi: I think what keeps me awake at Leslie Fishbone: lot of logic in having it separated, given night is nuclear safety . It doesn’t really, Thank you for your the long and still open entry into force but if I need to answer in this way, this remarks . If the IAEA period . is my big concern . Maybe I’ve seen too were asked to veri- For an FMCT you have all these much after Fukushima . fy a substantial new years of experience dealing with nuclear I believe we are at a very, very frag- undertaking such materials in the IAEA so it will be a bit ile situation . Something like that could as a fissile materi- difficult to explain to the taxpayer that happen again . I think there is an urgent als cutoff treaty or some disarmament you have that existing verification capac- need to move forward on nuclear safety, treaty, it would likely require a substan- ity sitting there and dealing with nuclear with more dedication, I think . With all its tial increase in the number of inspectors materials and still you want to create dramatic aspects, what happened has and in the support staff at headquarters another one . I still believe first it’s fea- not really convinced the majority that we to do all the necessary work to support sible and we really have to push for that . do have a problem . That’s my honest im- them . That would require a big increase I don’t think it’s impossible at all . pression . in the IAEA budget . And it might require In terms of disarmament, it depends When it comes to political crises, yet more increase in the budget because on what we have in mind . Yesterday we there are some political crises with nu- some countries might say that, if there had this very good presentation by Laura clear connotations and some without . is an increase in the safeguards budget, Rockwood reminiscing and recollecting Those political crises with nuclear con- there has to be a big increase in the tech- what happened with the Tripartite Initia- notations like Iran, we have the instru- nical cooperation budget . My question tive . So I think it depends on the instru- ments to deal with that . is, do you think this is feasible? ment we get . The Statute of the IAEA So yes, peace in the world maybe refers to it, so the legitimacy is there if would keep us awake, but that goes be- Grossi: Quite clearly if we ever have the political will exists to use the IAEA yond our work here . a cutoff treaty, which I hope will come in support of disarmament measures . In the current circumstances, in my
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 19 view, we need to focus on nuclear safe- ing amended this Convention is a failure . mark for the Agency in the next few years ty, nuclear security, providing sound sup- You are happy because you got an agree- and the Agency is not paying enough at- port advice and guidance to newcom- ment . But it is not what we wanted ”. tention . These conventions, I mean the ers, update and strengthen safeguards . Well, it could be the case, but I think CNS or the Joint Conventions on nuclear These are the real issues, and there is a we managed to keep the integrity of the waste, are the Cinderellas of the system lot to be done there . regime . We managed to keep everybody while in my view they deserve more at- I think those are the issues for the aligned behind the mission . True, this tention and dedication . In Vienna, the next ten years in the IAEA . We have the Vienna declaration has some promises secretariat provides water and coffee and expertise . We have a fairly large amount we have to keep up with . And we’ll see they go away . They don’t really pay the of I would say agreement on the funda- if we are able to do that . This is why I necessary attention to that . That is where mental problems . said we decided to invite people to come I see work to be done . When we were dealing with this to Buenos Aires and to continue this, to CNS, the Convention on Nuclear Safety, prove that we did not simply paper over Markku Koskelo: I presided over a diplomatic conference a political difference . As I was listening to to consider a proposal to amend it . To sum up, in my opinion in nuclear your very interest- It was a very difficult situation from security, we are in a better position than ing talk this morn- the very beginning because of the widely we were before . It doesn’t mean that ing, you mentioned disparate positions . My biggest concern we shouldn’t be very, very concerned that the potential was to fail to deliver an agreed outcome . about nuclear terrorism and the possibil- agreement with Just imagine the scenario: nuclear safe- ity of a malign or hostile use of nuclear Iran would involve special inspections ty against the backdrop of Fukushima, a material . But I think, that there has been and things beyond the additional proto- diplomatic conference in Vienna about a realization that the problem needed to col, at least temporarily . It reminded me nuclear safety ending in failure . be treated in a radically different manner . of the many conversations that I remem- I think it would have been a very, It’s political determination of the highest ber hearing about the fairness of the in- very bad message and a severe blow to level involving our presidents, or prime spections from one country to another . the credibility of our activities around the ministers, or counselors, or chiefs of For example, the fact that you would world . The headlines would have been government . In my country the coun- treat a country like Iran the same way as devastating: Nuclear industry is stub- selor is the foreign minister . you would treat a country like Germany born, the nuclear community is deaf; So that would be my answer . In se- or a country like Canada . And in fact the they don’t understand, they simply don’t curity we’re better, but in safety I don’t Agency spends an enormous amount of get it . And I saw countries that were see the same commitment and degree effort doing safeguards in Canada and considering that quite seriously, “Well, of political concern . And I think perhaps safeguards in Japan, neither one of we come, we vote, we go home . This nuclear safety is not as sexy to con- which is particularly viewed as a prolif- amendment is a bad idea ”. vince President Obama or whoever his eration threat . And I’m thinking, am I listening to successor is, to bring people and try to But the current agreement seems what these people are saying? And in launch a summit process . to be rather rigid in terms of how the the end, I think, reason prevailed . We And of course there are countries safeguards can be applied . In listening saw that we needed to come together that see nuclear energy as an energy in to your answers right here and now, it from this . The Vienna Declaration on transition or an energy in disappearance . occurs to me that perhaps the differen- Nuclear safety was approved . You would simply not have the same de- tiator that could be applied to how safe- The results can be judged as mod- termination, the same commitment . guards is being applied is the security est . Somebody told me, “Well, you had But there is something that needs to culture and the safety culture in a par- a diplomatic success, and since you are be done at our level, at the working level, ticular country . And if both of those are in an ambassador, you are happy . But this at the state level, and see what we can good shape, then perhaps they could get is a failure in terms of safety . Not hav- improve . I think that is the big question some relief from the safeguards regime
20 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 because isn’t the concern really nuclear get fewer physical inspection perhaps or Even today it’s really amazing and security and safety, not really just about these types of burdens that are quantifi- I know that through your activities you safeguards? able since you have a commercial back- are able to get some sense of what I’m ground and you are in the industry basi- saying . There is a lot of space for export Grossi: An excellent point but a very cally more than the institutions, you will controls to be refined, made more ef- difficult debate . I’ll tell you why . Is it be- understand this . fective, and widely accepted and imple- cause you are a law-abiding citizen who So my recipe for this is that I would mented . I think we are in the infancy of pays taxes diligently every year, that you not go for something that would expose these things . Just a few years ago it was should get respite from the IRS after a debate that you cannot win . It’s not a free-for-all basically, that was what we twenty years on the basis of your good winnable . You cannot say “because I’m had . It’s incredible the degree of liberty record? good, less inspections for me and more and freedom that people had in the past (Laughter) to . . ” to whom? to do all sorts of things which obviously But the point is still logical, and led to infamous proliferation cases . poses a legitimate question . It’s a perti- Chris Pickett: Am- Yes, the big challenge is that you nent point when you translate this into bassador, in today’s have all these fast moving technolo- the safeguards effort and the limited world where we gies . This has enhanced the necessity of resources the Agency has . So it is very have the age of the equipping these export control regimes logical to say, “Why should I keep go- internet, overnight with adequate technical analytical capa- ing to Canada with such frequency? Are delivery, and non- bilities . Making sure that they are they the Canadians going to proliferate?” Of state actors, you are up to date in their own norms, and course not . But in terms of the law and in mentioned the Nuclear Suppliers Group always aware of the things that should terms of the obligations, in terms of the and export control laws . There’s technol- be looked at . legal commitments and comprehensive ogy like 3D printers that are dual-use safeguards agreements you still need to technologies . Do the export control laws Gotthard Stein: verify and there is very little you can do . of today even make sense in this type of Some years ago the If you start looking at arguments to world? U .S . government try to justify a decreased inspection effort launched an initia- in certain states, as I said, on the basis of Grossi: Thank you very much . I think tive for further nu- past compliance then you create a lot of the NSG is also something that needs to clear disarmament problems in terms of criteria and quantita- look at and support, the export control with a vision of a tive reductions, to name but two . must come out of the shadows . I think “Global Zero” for a nuclear weapons But this does not mean that the it’s essential that we move to a situa- free world . What is your perspective and system is completely impermeable to tion where export control is part of that assessment on the realization and imple- change . As you know, the introduction of world . We were able to move a little bit mentation of such an ambitious project? integrated safeguards, the existence of a forward with (UN Security Council Reso- “broad conclusion” are all mitigating fac- lution) 1540 . Although 1540 has a bit of Grossi: Well, I think it was very vision- tors that have led to very concrete and a problem of being the offspring of a UN ary on the part of President Obama to substantive reductions in certain cases, Security Council resolution that is seen talk about this . It took a lot of courage but as I said even this has limits . by the vast majority of countries as an from the United States’ perspective to I also believe that through a sensible imposition by the big powers . It’s some- address that, to say that this is an ob- application of modern technologies and thing that they accept of course; it’s jective that could be shared even by the an agreed approach at the IAEA board mandatory and we do it . But we know United States . Because in the past you of governors on how to evolve in the there are technology areas that are ex- can imagine—and perhaps it was said, I system, it would be possible, really pos- tremely challenging . would have to see the record—that nu- sible to move to a place where some will clear weapons were there to stay in that
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 21 part of the equation . And there may be I think we all agree that the conse- we should remember that impossible many people that still believe that . quences are terrible . The consequences things sometimes happen . I think that the international commu- of nuclear weapons would be terrible . We cannot be so cynical to drop all nity is struggling with this . You see that, I don’t think even the United States is sense of idealism in what we do . That’s you see recurrent efforts to try to tackle against that . And they have attended the also our responsibility . May sound para- this issue from different sides . In the last meetings . doxical or contradictory, but it is a real- 1990s, it was through an Advisory Opin- I believe that those are aspirational istic responsibility to keep a space for a ion of the International Court of Justice, goals that we should never take out of dream . Because it might just come true . the ICJ . Countries went to the Interna- the agenda . They are like international tional Court of Justice to try to have the peace and security for the UN . It’s our Mangan: Unfortunately we are out of International Court of Justice say that goal and it should be our goal . I tend, and time . Thank you very much, Ambassa- there should be disarmament and to ban this is my personal opinion, to be a pretty dor, for joining us and giving good an- nuclear weapons . realistic person . I don’t think I will see swers and opening our minds in some Of course the International Court of nuclear disarmament . I don’t think even areas . We appreciate it very much and Justice was divided and you can cite the my children will see that . But the aspi- hope you enjoy the rest of your stay . advice or opinion of the ICJ either way . ration should be there, should always We’re probably not the only ones who And now you have the humanitarian be there . And in everything we do we are going to be asking you questions the consequences movement that has been must remind ourselves that it’s part of rest of the week . spearheaded by Austria and others, like the complex that we have subscribed to, Norway and Mexico . They have been try- including through the NPT (Nonprolifera- Grossi: Let’s keep the dialogue . I think ing to push that from that angle, which I tion Treaty) . It’s there in the NPT, and we it’s mutually beneficial . There’s a lot of believe still doesn’t solve the issue . should not question that in any way . And work for all of us to do . Thanks again .
22 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 Annual Meeting
56th INMM Annual Meeting Closing Plenary Session Exercise — Not Just for the Gym
The following is a transcript of the clos- ing plenary session of the 56th INMM Annual Meeting . This session featured three speakers and a question and an- swer session .
Larry Satkowiak: Good afternoon . Thank you for attending our closing ple- nary . Today our closing plenary is Ex- ercise—Not Just for the Gym . That is how to strengthen your organization’s muscles through tabletop and other real world exercises . Today we have three presenters .
INMM President Larry Satkowiak and Closing Plenary Panelists Daniel Johnson, Mark Ledbetter, and Daniel Johnson is the WINS Academy Rob Anderson manager from the World Institute for Nu- clear Security (WINS) . WINS has a close Johnson has worked in a variety of orga- and WINS was formed a few years after relationship with the INMM . The genesis nizations involved with nuclear security, that so WINS is now six years old and its of WINS came out of the Institute and safeguards and nonproliferation . He pre- genesis started in INMM . we’ve worked closely with WINS over viously worked at Brookhaven National Thank you also for inviting me to the years . I’m so glad that Daniel is here . Lab where he supported the U .S . Na- speak at this closing plenary session . I tional Nuclear Security Administration’s think this is a really important topic and in Mark Ledbetter is a section chief, exer- international nuclear safeguards and honor of that I’ve prepared a very elabo- cise policy and doctrine, National Exer- engagement program or INSEP . He has rate, long PowerPoint presentation . I’ve cise Division from FEMA (Federal Emer- also worked as a nonproliferation analyst been slaving over it for days and days . gency Management Agency) of the U .S . at the U .S . Department of Energy’s Chi- I’m going to use a laser pointer . Can we Department of Homeland Security . na office and as a research assistant at have it pulled up please . So this is my the Center for Nonproliferation Studies . presentation . (Laughter) And finally we haveRob Anderson, coun- He holds a master’s degree in inter- I think the whole point, of course, is to selor for political affairs at the Royal Neth- national policy studies along with a certif- avoid that scenario, which is why this topic erlands Embassy in Washington, DC . icate in nonproliferation studies from the is so important . I think the of method of The first speaker today is Daniel Monterey Institute of International Stud- fifteen PowerPoints in a row for a training Johnson . He joined the World Institute ies, which now has a student chapter of course, I think that’s a little bit old news for Nuclear Security in October 2012 and the INMM by the way . and I hope we move away from that para- is responsible for managing the WINS digm . I don’t mean to be too hard on Pow- Academy, the world’s first international Daniel Johnson: Thank you for that in- erPoints . I use PowerPoints, we all use certification program for managers with troduction . The idea for WINS actually PowerPoints . But let’s just try to minimize accountability for nuclear security . Mr . came out of INMM exactly ten years ago their use in a training course .
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 23 This topic also has me thinking This is something that we’ve seen in knowledge to students, to actually have about competency and specifically, what our WINS workshops . WINS is six years them do the simulation themselves of are we training for? Competency of the old and we’ve held sixty workshops, so I the treaty negotiation . concept is very old . In the last thirty to think we know what we’re talking about A second thing I’ve experienced is forty years, it’s come to be understood when I mention this . What WINS tries to by Brian Boyer and his team from Los that competency encompasses the do is match the knowledge and experi- Alamos who put together a really great knowledge, the skills, and the attributes ence of the practitioners attending our course that they did through Penn State of the individuals that you are trying to workshops, and that makes for a much, on the international nuclear fuel cycle train . I’m going to get up on a soapbox much more successful event and dialog . and safeguarding the fuel cycle . As part here, but when we’re talking about the When I think about this subject, I of that course they created virtual mod- knowledge based piece, I don’t think in- think about four specific types of train- els of facilities . You actually play the role person training should be so much about ing . It’s not a comprehensive list . The of a safeguards inspector and through the knowledge . I think it should be more other speakers will be talking about your computer you would walk into the about developing the skills of the partici- more types of trainings and maybe as an facility, you count fresh fuel elements, pants . Something we’ve been doing at audience you can think about what other you look into the reactor fuel pool, the WINS is trying to develop online cours- kinds of real world exercises we can do spent fuel pool . It’s an incredible way of es so people can go in advance of the for the discussion . But the four I think of learning . Instead of just being told all of training and learn that knowledge-based is first, the good old PowerPoint, which this information you actually go and ap- study themselves instead of sitting can be used in the right fashion . We do ply it and do it yourself virtually . I learned through a bunch of PowerPoint presen- it in our workshops . But that’s just a a ton from that . tations and getting knowledge that they method to develop an idea that can be And the final simulation I’m familiar could get on their own time . interrogated in small group discussion with is my former employer . Brookhaven I think this is also really important and discussed further . National Lab runs a course for safe- because, at least in the international The second method I think about is guards inspectors and they actually take nuclear security training context, I’ve tabletop exercises . And I saw that during the entire Brookhaven site and they take talked to many people who have at- the week there were at least a few pre- a number of the facilities on site and tended these courses or have been the sentations about people who were doing they turn them into mock inspection trainers at these courses and you have tabletop exercises . I think that’s great . facilities with fake declarations . So the a very wide disparity of knowledge and The one I’m most familiar with in my safeguards inspectors get a declaration experience among the people attend- little parochial world of nuclear security for a facility on the site and they actually ing these courses . So you have people is Oak Ridge National Lab runs a tabletop walk around the facility and Brookhaven with a lot of knowledge and experience called EnSight that is essentially like a tries to hide things from the inspectors and some people with essentially no large board game for participants to role and sees if the inspectors can detect the knowledge . This becomes a big conflict play out, actors trying to stop malicious undeclared activities . A really great way because the training has to kind of be actions at a facility . I think Rob will talk of training with fuel-based exercises . dumbed down for the people with very about the style of tabletop in more detail . The fourth method I think about little knowledge . Then the people with a The third model or methodology is case studies and scenarios . And the lot of knowledge are bored out of their I think about is simulation . There are a first I really heard about this was read- minds . They’re seeing information that few different types of simulations from ing about it in the Harvard Business Re- they already know . So we do as much very low fidelity to high fidelity in terms view . The Harvard Business School runs as we can to bring people up to a level of of realism . As was mentioned in my bio, semester-long courses entirely based on knowledge before the training happens I went to the Monterey Institute . Mon- case studies . This model of having stu- and so everybody has a baseline level of terey holds semester-long simulation dents role play a case over an entire se- knowledge, I think that’s a positive thing courses of an international treaty nego- mester and then the CEO or the person that we can do . tiation . It’s an incredible way to impart involved in the incident coming in and
24 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 saying what really happened . This model tually the audience will get sucked in and ing up . It’s based on the WINS Academy has really spread throughout the world start to actually role play in parts of the courses that we’ve developed . (It was and it is a very popular model now . It can theater production . It’s a very powerful held in Vienna on September 10-11 and be scaled down; it doesn’t have to be a way of doing things . Everybody who has is being supported by the U .S . Depart- semester long . It can be a much shorter ever attended one of our theater events ment of State .) scenario as well . gives it unanimous praise . Everybody I’d also like to just conclude with a Kind of a subset of this, and some- loves it . It’s just really fun . That’s the first final remark, an idea, and I’d be interest- thing I want to talk about that WINS has benefit, it’s just a fun thing to do . ed to hear what everybody here thinks been doing, is something called theater- The second benefit, I think, is this about this . It sounds like, from some of based training . It’s something we’ve difference between show versus tell . In the discussions I heard this morning, been doing for a few years now working my mind, I think about stuff like this buzz that INMM is considering this . But for closely with the Japan Atomic Energy word, nuclear security culture . People future INMM Annual Meetings I think Authority, JAEA . We’re running another talk about nuclear security culture all it might be interesting if some of the theater workshop in December . We also the time . How do you train somebody sessions were completely dedicated to ran a one-off event at the 2013 IAEA Nu- on nuclear security culture? Do you tell scenarios, exercises, multimedia, virtual clear Security Summit and I think some them pedantically what nuclear security reality, things where the audience would of the people in the audience were at culture is? Is that effective? In my mind actually come in and, instead of sitting that event . We also ran one on the side- what’s more effective is if you actually in chairs like you are now, actually par- lines at the Global Partnership meeting . show the person what a good nuclear ticipate in a scenario during an entire This idea of using theater-based security culture looks like and what a session . Just a thought . Maybe some- training is not new at all . It’s been done bad nuclear security culture looks like . thing that can be done at future INMM’s . for decades . They’ve been using it ex- So theater is very effective at doing that . Thanks for listening . tensively in industries like aviation and Another benefit of theater-based aviation safety and security . They’ve training is you can overcome a lot of Satkowiak: We’re going to let each one also been using it extensively in nuclear sensitivities that people have about dis- of the speakers talk and offer their in- safety . The organization we work with, cussing this topic . This is that something sights and then we will open up the floor the theater production company, AKT, is WINS has experienced since our founda- to questions . I am now going to call up based in the UK . They’ve been doing nu- tion as people have said you can’t talk our second speaker, Mark Ledbetter . clear safety training for Sellafield and the about security issues because it’s too Mark assumed the position as the other sites in the UK for a very long time . sensitive . I think WINS has proven that National Exercise Division’s Doctrine So we’ve just adopted this same model . that’s not true . There are a lot of things Section Chief in July 2013 following How it works is our partner has pro- you can talk about that are not classified, a twenty-three-year career in the U .S . fessional scriptwriters and professional that are not too sensitive . But theater of- Coast Guard as a marine environmental actors, people that actually work on ten brings people out of that shell and safety and security specialist . In his cur- West End, so they’re very good actors, allows them to talk about things they rent position, he is responsible for the and we give them a scenario, a specific might not otherwise feel comfortable homeland security exercise and evalu- nuclear security incident or emergency talking about . This is really impactful in ation program that outlines the funda- response scenario . The scriptwriter will cultures with strong hierarchies, as well, mental principles framing a common then write out a play for us . The actors where people are afraid of saying some- approach to the management of an ex- will rehearse it and then they’ll come to thing that might be construed as criticiz- ercise program and the conduct of indi- our workshop or events and actually play ing their management . But when you’re vidual exercises . out the scenario in front of the audience, talking about a fictional yet realistic sce- Prior to joining FEMA, Mr . Ledbetter the participants . Gradually they’ll stop nario, they’re able to discuss their con- was the Coast Guard’s Exercise Policy the play and they’ll ask questions of the cerns and their issues more comfortably . and Budget Division Chief responsible participants about what they see . Even- We do have another theater com- for the coordination and development of
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 25 policy related to exercise design, devel- The same thing is for the national all the time for her . I say, “I need you opment, execution, and evaluation . Mr . exercise program . We want to help ex- to put on your blinders and tell me from Ledbetter is a 1990 graduate of the U .S . amine and validate the core capabilities Mrs . Ledbetter, does this make sense to Coast Guard Academy, is certified by across the five mission areas of protec- you on the messaging?” So I challenge the Emergency Management Institute’s tion, prevention, response, mitigation, you to do those two things . Get the me- master exercise practitioner program, and recovery . Because again, as a nation dia involved and bring in private citizens and is an adjunct instructor for the Coast and for any group out there, you want to into your exercises and into your discus- Guard’s contingency preparedness and be well balanced . sions . That way they understand what’s response management school . The next point I want to talk about going on when something goes wrong . is what I like to call the importance of What I just described to you is what Mark Ledbetter: Thank you . My talk is the nontraditional exercise partners out (FEMA Director) Mr . (W . Craig) Fugate, going to be more generic today . there and the value they can bring to any calls the whole community . It’s a con- First, I want to talk a little bit about planning and conduct with an exercise . cept, it’s everybody . In the past emer- the national exercise program . How So think of them as your workout buddy gency managers, we would bring like many are familiar with the top officials in the gym concept . They will help and type in . We’d have fire, police, emergen- for the national exercise program? Raise guide you and push you to stretch your cy managers . But again, broaden your your hands, I won’t be offended . So the limits on the exercise . Some examples perspective on that . genesis of the top officials and exercise we like to think about are nongovern- I have two more points . Another program started with WMD, weapons of mental agencies, American Red Cross, piece that Daniel talked a little bit about mass destruction . We like to call it bad faith-based organizations, and the private is helping exercise shape the policy and people doing bad things . However, we sector . For the federal government we procedures . I don’t have a gym or work- had a watershed event, Hurricane Ka- don’t have all the resources; we don’t out analogy . But here’s an analogy: You trina, that kind of changed the national have all the answers . The private sec- wouldn’t buy a car without test driving it . exercise program . It had to evolve . It tor is the backbone of the nation . They Has anybody bought a car without test wasn’t revolutionary that we evolved have a lot of resources and they have the driving it? I hope not . As you go out there to help assess and improve the nation’s knowledge that needs to be brought to creating those policies and procedures, preparedness . bear . go ahead and run them through an ex- If you think about an exercise and Another is the media . We like to ercise, a discussion-based, a full-scale the national exercise program, it’s here push the media away but here’s one exercise . Refine them as you’re going to foster coordination and build relation- challenge I would issue . Try to bring through . It’s an iterative process . The ships . Those are the two things . I’d like them into the exercise . Because when last thing you want is to have a new pol- to take away the first part is relationships that incident occurs, because it will oc- icy or procedure you haven’t test driven and coordination across the nation . If cur, you will need them to help get the and you find it’s wrong . Don’t think about you think of an exercise as a snapshot correct information out . We spend a lot it as failure, think about it as a continu- in time of a pixel, we’re trying to get a of time out there trying to correct misin- ous improvement cycle . whole preparedness picture, and we formation versus trying to get the inci- And the last piece that Daniel talked need a wide range of exercises across dent back under control . about which I really like the concept is a gamut of activities . So we tie it back And the last one I’d like to talk about actually having role players, a theater to the gym concept we have . You go to is the citizens . They are our true stake- group come in . I know Washington has the gym, you work out, you’re not going holders . Because if you think about it, a lot of great theater groups . Maybe we to do all arms or legs or backs because you’re trying to work on a public infor- could get some of them to come in . That you’ll end up looking like Popeye . You mation messaging for an exercise for might be kind of fun . I enjoyed that one . don’t want to look like Popeye . So we an event . We may think the message is The piece about that is about a sce- want a well-planned routine that works clear, but to Aunt Sally it’s not . I have to nario . I think adding a scenario to discus- across all of the muscle groups . feel sorry for my wife . I bring stuff home sion base adds a lot of realism for the
26 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 participants . We want to engage the tinuing to work with the group and thank So in many ways our summit last participants, the players during the exer- you very much . year was not the average summit with cise and a scenario brings that to life . But world leaders . Yes, it contained all of the things you need to think about are it Satkowiak: Our next speaker is Rob An- the traditional elements: opening state- needs to be realistic and tied to the ob- derson . Rob has been the Counselor for ments, speeches, national interventions, jective of your exercise . Sometimes we Political Affairs at the Royal Netherlands closing dinner, communiques . But we get caught up, we call it the Tom Clancy Embassy in Washington, DC, since July also wanted to take the opportunity to syndrome . You can write a great scenar- 2012 . His portfolio includes Asia, Iran, and have the fifty-eight world leaders in The io, crazy things going on, but you forgot arms control and nonproliferation . In prep- Hague get to a point where they have a about what you’re trying to exercise in aration for the Netherlands hosting the meaningful discussion and for that you your test . So bring that back to real life . 2014 Nuclear Security Summit, he was need interactivity . Have your workout buddy tell you, “No, responsible for coordinating the DC-based We did a bit of an experiment . I’m you’re off base, bring it back into reality .” preparation activities and ran the media going to tell you a little bit about how we And the last piece I’d like to leave you program during The Hague Summit . did that . Why bother, do you think? Isn’t with is documenting the exercise . In my Between 2008 and 2012 he was it better to organize a summit like all the world, if it wasn’t documented, it didn’t the First Secretary and Deputy Head of other G7 and whatever because that’s di- occur . So you’ve been to the gym for the the Political Section of the Royal Nether- plomacy, that’s what diplomats do . But, last six months, you’ve been working out, lands Embassy in Beijing, China . Prior to our Prime Minister wanted to prevent you’re ready to show off how buff you his tour in China, he served at the Neth- exactly a situation that Daniel showed, are to your family and friends . Same thing erlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The namely, that we have a room full of peo- with an exercise . You need to let people Hague as the advisor to the Director- ple including the highest people in the know it occurred because it will help General for European Affairs from 2005 world that are asleep while other people document some of the very important to 2008 and as the Policy Officer at the talk . He really pushed for this interactiv- lessons learned, areas for improvement, European Integration Department from ity piece . and strengths that you have you need to 2003 to 2005 . But for that interactivity we needed share with everybody . Rob is an economist by training and to have a clear plan . And we had to de- The one piece for Daniel I’d like to holds a master’s degree from Erasmus velop an exercise . That was a really big add onto is the training piece . We think University in Rotterdam . challenge . We needed to have clear of exercises a little differently than that . aims, come up with a basic setting, de- They help validate the training that Daniel Rob Anderson: Thanks, Larry, for the velop a scenario and procedures . But at puts on . So think about that, training and kind introduction . Congratulations on a least as challenging was to get buy-in exercise . We don’t know what comes great conference . Congratulations to the from other delegations because in the first, the chicken or the egg . They’re very organizers . I think a job well done . run up to the summit it wasn’t sure at important . We call it a symbiotic relation- What I’m going to do and I’m going to all that people were going to go ahead at ship . The whole idea that we’re trying to do it differently than the previous speakers this . In fact, I was at the Sherpa meeting do here and as we go out and talk about because I have a presentation and a Pow- in October 2013 in Ottawa in the run-up our role is get ideas . So talk with every- erPoint . I’m not going to bore you to death to the summit and there were a lot of body out in the audience, talk about those with that but I want to talk a little bit about critical questions, concerns by a lot of exercises, what you learned . I love the a specific exercise that we did last year delegations why we should do this rang- idea of next year having the conference or during the Nuclear Security Summit in The ing from basic concerns like “but if we the seminar being more exercised based . Hague and I think it’s useful to show you let our leader talk freely and have them I think that would be a great way to spend a couple of things that we did that could vote on the button or give them an iPad, three days, actually going through some help understand better what we did and suppose he doesn’t know how the iPad very hard issues and getting to the resolu- why it was important . And why in the end works and then everybody can see what tion of some ideas . I look forward to con- it was fun, like Daniel said . a fool he is?” And there were some sub-
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 27 stantive issues as well . But we thought How did we organize this? We didn’t call the president of Brenia? We had the it was very important to have that sub- call this playing games or war games or security team, and I would have loved to stantive discussion with an exercise whatever . We particularly called this a show you the whole video but unfortu- so we went through with that . And the scenario-based policy discussion be- nately that wasn’t possible . But this was key was to give the Sherpa community, cause leaders do not play games, at least the video with the actors where people the people who prepared for all of this, not in public and certainly not while wit- were around the table discussing the pri- enough information in advance without nessing each other . So the focus should orities of the leaders . disclosing the whole scenario . be on the discussion . But you don’t get to So, the questions were multiple What did we want out of it? First we get discussion instantaneously . You have choice, there was no right or wrong, wanted to raise awareness among world to have something, especially when you and the leaders could vote with buttons, leaders . It’s nuclear security . We were ask leaders what if the unthinkable hap- anonymously of course . And they had talking about preventing a nuclear terror- pens in your country . Therefore we need to consult with their delegates about ist threat . What are you talking about? the scenario and convincing visuals that the choices they would make . Then af- And what is the threat? And why is trigger such discussions . terward, we had a discussion where we this important to talk about at the world On the basis of our goals, we formu- summarized the answers, anonymously leader level . We wanted to provide the lated the setting that we wanted and we again, kicked off by our Prime Minister, leaders with a realistic scenario and a hired a consultant and actors to write the and talked about that we see that no- realistic example of what could happen . scenario for us and to produce support- body took the effort to call the president Second, wanted to provide them ing video . The setting was leaders plus of Brenia . Why is that? Or we didn’t in- with an opportunity to give a little bit three close delegates, a full conference form the media . Why is that? We asked of insight into internal coordination pro- table, no press, no other observers, and delegates around the room to respond cesses . Whenever a crisis occurs, and full interpretation in six UN languages . to that and give their reflection on what the speakers know well, you’ve got to That resulted in an event where we they would think was their priority in the have your own house in order . You’ve showed scene-setter, a scenario on the cases . got to communicate with your own agen- basis of an escalating crisis in a country So, how did it work out? Well, our cies and a lot of people within your own called Brenia, fictitious, of course, but re- major concern was that a lot of leaders government . Sometimes governments alistic, where there was a terrorist cell would actually leave the room . Up until are not very well prepared for that . So with folks who wanted to steal nuclear an hour before the scenario-based policy we wanted to give them an example to or radiological material to attack key fi- discussion, we got signals from some show why it is important to have that in- nancial infrastructure in Brenia . delegations that their leader wasn’t in- ternal coordination . The video we showed, showed the terested or their leader would have to Third, discuss the benefits of in- cell, the ideology, and a fictitious national do other things and would walk away ternational cooperation . Now as you all security team of actors who reported to when the scenario-based policy discus- know, nuclear security is an exclusive the leaders . During that scenario and the sion would start . That was really a big right of national states, a responsibility . evolving scenario, there were crisis up- concern . Our Prime Minister said, “You But in the case of an emergency, coun- dates and after each crisis update, lead- know what, forget about that . We’ll go tries definitely benefit from coordinating ers were asked questions about what do ahead anyway .” their actions . you do or what is your highest priority What happened was that everybody Last but not least important, and when something happens . stayed in the room . In fact, there was a Mark also alluded to that, media . How The first crisis update was the im- lot of enthusiasm . Everybody was en- do you communicate? Do you keep your minent theft or threat of a theft . And we gaged . They stood up . They conferred public in the dark or do you disclose all asked the leaders, what do you do? Do with their associates . They conferred the information you’ve got or something you close up your borders? Do you make with each other . We got a whole dynam- in between . This is very important for sure that all of your material is accounted ic atmosphere there that actually led to a world leaders to think about . for? Do you call somebody up? Do you very successful discussion . So we’re ac-
28 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 tually glad that we did it and it really paid and most of all keep it simple but realis- specifics when you gave your presenta- off on all the investments that we made . tic . Obviously it’s a fictitious scenario but tion, could you just give us an example What did we take away from it? A do make it look like it’s real . So you also of a national-level exercise scenario and couple of things . This was obviously not have to be careful that you don’t disclose how you worked together? Because it’s an exercise on an expert level . This was too much information to the people who very elaborate and I think the audience, if the highest political level you could get . are preparing for it because if you’ve they’re not familiar with it, would benefit In that case it requires a very different seen it a couple of times, you think there from a two- or three-minute recap . approach than some of the examples are some flaws and maybe it’s not really that Mark and Dan alluded to . So you’ve realistic and you don’t want to have that . Ledbetter: They are now called cap- got to stick to broad concepts, don’t talk Obviously you don’t want to have your stone exercises . The last one we held about procedures . It’s not an exam . The scenario associated with any specific was an earthquake scenario up in Alaska . questions that you pose to world lead- country . And you have to keep the lead- Every two years, we have a capstone ers are not right or wrong . They’re very ing questions simple . exercise or event . We have a two-year sensitive to that . Suitable topics: terrorism, radiologi- cycle, we try to go out there and solicit In terms of substance, there were a cal, cyber . We did a cyber exercise dur- exercises from the private sector-states, couple of teachable moments . Our sce- ing the global cyber security conference regional, private, and nongovernment nario evolved actually about a radiologi- in The Hague in April . Health, pandem- agencies and figure out how we want cal scenario, a radiological threat . There ics, transboundary are also very good . Or to look across those five mission areas was a threat of people stealing some ra- natural hazards . Less suitable: political I talked about: protection, prevention, diological material from a hospital . There crises, especially those where it’s not re- response, mitigation, and recovery . We was this uncertainty about radiological ally clear who is to blame . You certainly have a tendency to try to focus in on one and, for instance, fissile material sourc- don’t want to have the situation where of the five big mission areas . As I dis- es . I think the leaders became aware participants are starting to accuse each cussed earlier, we used to call them the that when you talk about radiological you other . And you don’t want a situation top officials exercises or national exer- don’t have millions of lives in danger . But where only a few participants can influ- cises . They are typically terrorism based . at the same time the source could come ence the crisis . The focus was WMD, bad people from anywhere, differently so with fis- We got tremendous positive feed- doing bad things . But there is also some- sile material . back and in such a way that I understand one else out there who is very mean, International collaboration, a lot of that the United States was very enthu- that’s called Mother Nature . I think we leaders stressed the need for that . In siastic to follow a model of that sort for realize that Mother Nature can wreak case of emergency it is really crucial that the next summit in 2016 . Obviously the havoc on the United States and across you can actually call somebody, that you Netherlands is very happy to work with the world . Earthquakes, tsunamis . It’s have human and legal relationships in the United States on that, and with that I not just the United States, it’s around place that help address the threat and will give it back to you, Larry . the world that that’s a big issue . So we help to respond firsthand . The Jordanians kind of balanced them back and forth be- and Israelis, for example, alluded to that . Satkowiak: Thanks, Rob . Now we will tween a manmade disaster and a natural Then national inventories, in case of open the floor to questions . disaster . So the last one we had was a a threat or something goes wrong, lead- big earthquake in Alaska on the fiftieth ers became aware that it’s not that easy Joyce Connery: First of all, thank you all anniversary of the larger earthquake in to do real-time material counting . It’s for doing this today . I think it was a really Alaska of 7 .8 right outside Anchorage . good that they are aware of it and it’s also entertaining panel, and Rob, I’m glad you It takes about eighteen months for good that they think about technological were so successful in the Netherlands us to build that exercise and what we do solutions to bridge that gap . because it sounds like a fantastic experi- is at the National Exercise Division, it’s Now of course when you do this you ence . My question is actually for Mark . I really the states’ exercise . We come in have to carefully design your scenario was wondering because you didn’t talk with technical assistance to help guide
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 29 and provide resources to conduct it . Our dian safeguards right now is a lot of turn- are being trained against that competen- goal really is to bring those top officials, over of staff in terms of we’re no longer cy framework . the senior levels, into the exercise dis- seeing necessarily career safeguards ex- WINS is actually working with Canada cussion . Because the last thing we want perts, but more the newer kind of next on the development of a national level to talk about is where they have to make generation staff who are coming in and nuclear security training strategy devel- a policy decision about resources . The perhaps we’re going to see larger turn- oping a competency framework for Canada federal government at our level is more over, so that the experience component and then designing training against that about resource allocation . It’s that scarce is a really difficult one to tackle . Daniel, competency framework for all of the key resources are out there and making de- as you pointed out, it’s the knowledge positions in the government, the regula- cisions on what to move . We saw that part, the kind of nuts and bolts of, in our tor, and industry . This can be scaled up in Super Storm Sandy about moving cer- case, safeguards is relatively straight- for the entire country but for your depart- tain resources across the country . So the forward to achieve . It’s that experience ment I think you need to take the same purpose really of the national exercise is piece that’s very difficult to transfer and approach of who is your target audience, to allow the state and local officials to to train new people . So, my question is, who is being trained, what competen- play and meet their needs . But for us, the examples you’re presenting here cies do they need developed, what’s it’s to bring those senior officials across today obviously are on a national or in- the job task analysis . Developing train- all the departments in the agencies and ternational scale or in terms of the the- ing designed with learning outcomes in engage them because as we all know, ater-based training, you have something mind that meet that job task analysis and they’re all political appointees and they that perhaps takes a lot of resources . competencies . And then evaluating it have a tendency to rotate in and out . So I’m wondering, for any of the panelists, through examination or testing or some- every couple of years we have to go, and if you would have some advice for some- thing that you can quantifiably measure that’s the reason we’re on a two-year cy- one dealing with a much smaller scale that people are learning something from cle, that seems to be the lifespan of a lot of training needs . What kinds of guiding the training that you’re giving them . of our appointees . principles can you extract from these We’ve had earthquakes and terror- larger case scenarios that you would all Satkowiak: I have a question for Rob . ism . The next one we’re scheduled for be dealing with and just offer for some- When you conducted this scenario at in 2016 is going to be a protection/pre- one like myself dealing with a small the Nuclear Security Summit, you said it vention discussion . We’ve had a cyber group of people in a very specific field? went well . What were the comments? exercise before . That was quite interest- At the end of the day, what did the world ing . We haven’t really nailed down the Johnson: I’m not sure how closely re- leaders like about it? What didn’t they scenario yet . We’re still looking to figure lated to the topic this answer is, but the like about it? There had to be comments out . We like to ask, “What keeps the recommendation I would have is first and both ways . President and his cabinet up at night?” foremost you need to understand what We want to help exercise that . That way the competency framework is for your Anderson: Well, for one everybody was they’re better prepared when the event staff . Getting back to what I just said, listening to what they were saying . No- does occur . what knowledge, skills, and attributes do body fell asleep . But truly I think what they need to do their jobs better . Then really helped them, what we really got Karen Richards: I’m the director of the your training needs to be targeted at them back here after the exercise was that Safeguards Division with the Canadian to make sure that the learning outcomes this was a very helpful way for a very Nuclear Safety Commission for the nu- from the training fulfill the requirements sensitive setting on the world leaders’ clear regulator in Canada . I’m really in- of the competency framework . level to get a better understanding of trigued by the concepts that you’ve all Then also I would say there needs what you’re actually talking about and presented here today in terms of a train- to be some evaluation process so that what the threat is of a nuclear or radio- ing tool . The reality that we seem to be you actually know that those learning logical scenario, and why it is important embracing and facing in Canada in Cana- outcomes are being met and that people and why international cooperation is also
30 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 important . Because, like I said, every- Obama played in the cyber one for Alas- tified . You may think it’s a very simple body thinks of nuclear security as, “Yes, ka . He didn’t really play, I think some- issue, but it will have a budget issue, it’s my responsibility, but it’s certainly thing was going on . But the last time a training issue, a new policy issue so not your responsibility to talk about my just before I joined FEMA, I was in the when you go about that, you have to nuclear security architecture ”. Coast Guard, he did play and was very think about it in a holistic approach . We I’m from Holland so if something involved . But the secretaries and the call it the POETE model, which stands goes wrong in Belgium, you’re auto- undersecretaries will be involved in the for policy, organization, equipment, train- matically responsible for the other things exercises . So again Barney Fife is also ing, and exercises . So you have to look that are happening . Then in that case involved . He’s an important player to us across all of those elements of a cor- you need to be able to confer with your because my true customers really are rective action to help identify . The last world colleagues on what to do . I guess the state and local officials because in piece is really to validate it in a future ex- despite having a long way to go to keep the emergency management world—95 ercise or a future real world event . You stressing why this is important . I think percent of all emergencies are handled may think you’ve solved the problem but the scenario-based policy discussion at the local level . And Washington, DC, again, you may have only exacerbated helped a lot to make clear that this ex- has a tendency to muck things up . I have because you didn’t fully fix it . ample could also happen in reality . to remind myself that I once was a lo- We see a lot of corrective actions cal responder and I need to keep that in or improvement plans that talk about Satkowiak: Mark, when you hold those mind as we plan these exercises . IT systems . They always identify it as capstone events how far down do you a training issue . Well, it’s more than a go? I know you probably engaged the lo- Jeff Johnson: I’m from Oak Ridge Na- training issue . It’s also a budget issue cal politicians . Do you go down to the po- tional Laboratory . Diverse application because we have to have the funds in licemen on the street, the firemen, the across the panel for training and exer- place to allow staff members to go back first responders? cises so I don’t expect the same answer be trained . Training is that very important from each one of you . What is the most piece that you have to have a plan for . Mark Ledbetter: Yes, for the capstone effective mechanism you’ve developed in 2014 in Alaska we went down to or studied for the after action report, the Johnson: I think for me the key and the about twenty individual boroughs up in lessons learned, how to improve the pro- question—what I took from it—is how Alaska with some of the tribal units and cess for the next time you do it? I would do you evaluate the relative success first Americans up there . It is a truly top see that very different given the three of the training . And you can evaluate it to bottom exercise program . We try to applications that I’ve heard talked about immediately after by asking the partici- get that because again, without the re- today . pants, how did you feel about the train- alistic input from the local responders, ing and they can tell you how they felt . we can’t identify those true needs that Ledbetter: I’ll take the first stab at this But the most effective indicator I think need to be discussed . It all has to bubble because that’s actually how I kind of got is actually not losing track of that person up somehow . That’s the reason why it into the exercise world . I was the Coast but following up with them three and six takes eighteen months to actually plan Guard’s lessons learned manager . That months later and then asking them how those exercises because you’re trying was my last point and I left it for my last has the training impacted you and how to coordinate multiple states, multiple point on purpose . The corrective actions, has it changed your behavior . Have you regions, and private sector entities . So the strengths that are identified are key . actually applied the training on your job? yes, it does go down to Barney Fife, the So the key to any, what I call, improve- Has it made a difference at your organi- sheriff, and Mayberry, all the way up to ment plan is constant visibility with your zation? the president . senior leaders of what needs to be cor- Something that we’re doing at We’ve had the president play in rected and assigning those actions . And WINS is for everybody who goes through some of the previous capstones—and looking across all of the elements . our training, we’re going to be inducting some of the cabinet too . President You may have an issue that’s iden- them to kind of an alumni network pro-
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 31 fessional society of all of our graduates . rity world . And how could we shape the in the courses themselves . Now what We’re going to ask the people in our future in such a way that this stays on we’re doing, now that we’ve developed alumni network how they felt about the the agenda and what is needed for that . all of these courses, is we’re creating training months down the road . How it’s I hope the things that came out of that in-person training materials using those impacted their career, how it’s impacted discussion, and I know they are going to cases and those scenarios . the relationship with their organization, feed into the discussions we will have So for the theater event we’re hav- and how their organization approaches at the summit next year in Washington . ing in September, we’re actually pulling security . I think you really have to think out some of the concepts and ideas from about these things on a long-term basis . Satkowiak: I have a question for Dan- the courses to develop the scripts for Because if you just ask the person right iel regarding your certification program . the theater event . It’s kind of in nascent after the course and they say, it was I know it’s been going on now for a year . stages now, we’ve been so focused on great, that’s not really a great metric of I want to find out how many graduates actually completing all of the courses . whether or not the training was effective and do you use scenario-based train- Once we have all the courses complete or not . ing during the certification program and then we’ll really focus on developing the what type? in-person component of all the training Anderson: In our case it’s a little bit courses . But we’ve designed the cours- more difficult to follow up with the world Johnson: We have about 500 partici- es with that in mind, that these would be leaders given the political cycles of them . pants from sixty-six countries in the pro- converted into in-person activities . And they are a little busy, absolutely . I gram . And we’ve now had over 100 ex- agree actually with Dan that we took the ams that have been taken with about a Satkowiak: What level of managers are effort to kind of see right afterwards in 75 percent pass rate . So we have about participating in the training? that room right after the scenario-based eighty participants that have passed policy discussion was coming to an end, their exams . And that’s after one year . Johnson: The way we’ve focused it is you could tell that people actually had And we’re seeing a pretty sharp uptake we’re trying to reach more senior man- fun and did stay in the room . Because of people who are now registering and agers in these organizations . It’s been that was actually our major concern . doing their exams . our experience at WINS that the most It’s not so much about the scenario, it’s And the other question was about effective way to impact change at an or- about people thinking that this is not im- how we use scenarios in cases in the ganization is if it has senior level buy-in, portant enough to do . And they stayed training course itself . It comes back to especially when you’re talking about se- and they were enthusiastic . And it actu- this point I mentioned in my talk about curity issues . You need the board to be ally helps that the United States is now show versus tell . And it applies to writ- involved, executive managers to be in- organizing the second one and that the ing as well, it’s not just in-person train- volved, putting out companywide securi- United States was very vocal about do- ing . When you’re writing a course, it’s ty policy saying this is important just like ing this kind of exercise again, which very easy to tell, tell, tell and if anybody as with safety . Safety is an organization- makes it possible two years later to kind here likes to read literature and writing, al-wide responsibility, everybody thinks of tweak the scenario a little bit and see you can see the difference between a they’re responsible for safety . Whereas what other kind of threats you can make good writer who tries to tell, tell, tell ver- in security it’s a little bit more siloed so more clear . sus somebody who shows what they’re we’re focusing on those senior manag- In addition to the scenario-based trying to talk about . ers who can then spread that message policy discussion we also had an infor- So as much as we can in our cours- throughout the organization that security mal leaders’ discussion which is really es we use real examples of events that is everyone’s responsibility . basically a room without a table, with have happened to get the reader think- We do have a course for scientists only the leaders, without their staff ing about how it applies to their organi- and engineers as well though, but we and a free-flow discussion about what zation and to their situation . We have a still are trying to focus more on mid to could be improved in the nuclear secu- number of case studies and scenarios upper level managers who have the abil-
32 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 ity to impact change at their organiza- of delegations seriously about their lead- or the political sensitivities are key and tions . We’re not focusing much on state ers or being very sensitive to cultural or we call it biting the scenario . That’s one level people who are the frontline people procedural things . But also being very thing you want to stay away from . but kind of that middle layer in upper firm in what you want to do and com- Johnson: You took the words out of my management . municate that very clearly . And give the mouth . I was going to say realism as Sherpa community as much information well . If you try to put a scenario out there Corey Hinderstein: I’m new to the exer- they need to be convinced or persuaded that there’s been an improvised nuclear cise world and yet now I’m responsible but without telling the whole deal . device that’s been exploded in New York with a lot of great support for putting on City, it’s not that real, it’s not that prob- an exercise next year . So you can see Ledbetter: Rob and I both said the word able . I would suggest the scenario that is that this panel is extremely self-serving realistic and I think the one thing I em- at least mildly probable and not too over for me . So I have a question about what phasize a little bit, it’s got to be tied to the top, but also not too minor . If you’re is the biggest mistake that I need to the objective of what we’re trying to do . talking about a scenario with a radioac- avoid in planning an exercise scenario? My boss likes to talk about the space tive source going missing, they’re prob- alien exercise . You can have a scenario, ably not going to care too much . You’re Anderson: I’m sure you’re not going but is it realistic? Maybe . But it’s got to going to have to find the right balance to make a mistake . I think if you look at be tied to something you’re trying to ac- of realism versus something that’s still kind of the phase that we’re in now, re- complish . So again, not to beat a dead engaging and interesting to somebody ally the crucial preparations for the sum- horse, but have it really be tied to what at that high of a level . mit next year, in my experience it’s really you want to accomplish out of the event . all about the buy-in . Taking the concerns Keep it simple . As Rob said, the cultural
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 33 Book Review
Book Review
By Mark L. Maiello, PhD Book Review Editor
Command and Control misinformation spawned the concentra- Eric Schlosser tion of weapons decision-making power Softcover, 632 pages into the hands of the very few . The by- ISBN 978-0-14-312578-5 product of this policy and the lack of pub- Penguin Books, New York, 2013 lic scrutiny exacerbated the problems as- sociated with nuclear weapons safety . How fortunate has mankind been that The book is also the story of U .S . despite frequent and numerous mis- Air Force personnel confronted with a takes, accidents, and misfortunes of disaster in the making at an underground varied kinds, we have never experienced Titan II missile complex a few miles out- an unplanned nuclear detonation either side of Damascus, Arkansas, USA . This within the borders of the United States story of young men and their superiors or in a foreign land that is over-flown emphasizes the everyday occupational with U .S . nuclear weapons or where dangers they faced working with lethal they are stored? Damned fortunate in- fuels in remote underground silos com- deed . Eric Schlosser admits that weap- pounded and magnified by the presence ons safeguards have worked . But flaws of the most powerful destructive force in the system continue to exist . Nuclear on the planet . Damascus was an unprec- weapons professionals have devoted hazardous fuels, and chemicals all in- edented accident in 1980 that resulted and endangered careers fighting to point volving or in close proximity to nuclear in an explosion that popped a nuclear these flaws out . But here we are with weapons . Command and Control is a warhead out of its silo and fortunately nuclear weapons still on hair trigger historical journey covering the nuclear caused only two Air Force personnel alert; still reducing response, commu- near misses and missed opportunities to fatalities—all started by a fuel leak that nication, and decision-making time to safeguard weapons, from their inception was initiated by a dropped wrench dur- dangerously short periods that argue for to the present day . Schlosser’s narra- ing a scheduled maintenance call . This a nuclear disaster and the creation of a tive includes the major nuclear weapons deftly personalizes the danger of nuclear “future history making event ”. personalities from the past seven or so weapons, putting the reader inside the Schlosser emphasizes the narrow decades—dipping occasionally into their silo with the men struggling with twen- margin we have traversed between di- own personal historical accounts to yield tieth-century technology to understand saster and self-preservation . It’s the their perceptions of nuclear weapons de- and respond to the alarms and signals story of the battle between advocates ployment, use and meaning . A message that confusingly indicated the potential of weapons safeguards and those who about the U .S . government’s and in par- for a lethal chemical explosion in the believed anything that slowed or under- ticular the military’s lack of transparency midst of nuclear weapon . mined weapons response times was about the dangers maintaining, securing, An investigative reporter who needs unnecessary and potentially detrimen- transporting, and flying missions with to reach a lay audience about a compli- tal to the nation’s defense . It’s also the nuclear weapons becomes most obvi- cated a technological and domestic story of the occupational dangers faced ous in the book’s epilogue but is part and policy issue such as nuclear weapons by U S. . Air Force personnel who rou- parcel of Schlosser’s chronicle through- is confronted with a mighty challenge . tinely confronted aircraft crashes, fires, out . This secrecy and the associated But Schlosser’s writing is outstanding .
34 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 It is easy-going and sincere yet carefully Command and who sought to thwart of soil to Aiken, South Carolina, USA, crafted to be personal and human . He any delay, compromise, or subversion of for burial . Despite the mitigation effort, very effectively conveys the cataclysmic its mission to utterly destroy the enemy . the U .S . and Spanish governments de- danger of the many formerly unknown or As we move through the post war nied that the plutonium posed a health untold nuclear weapons mishaps . This is decades, Schlosser uncovers and de- threat . When it was said and done, the multi-layered storytelling . Schlosser pe- scribes in horrifying detail the many ac- Pentagon had endured two and half riodically pokes into the Damascus arc cidents that nearly brought the nuclear months of bad press and the Spanish throughout the historical narrative that house down . His describes everything government prohibited the U .S . to fly focuses on other worldwide nuclear from totally inadequate guarding of nu- nuclear weapons in its air space . Many near-accidents and the geopolitics that clear bombs in Europe (literally chain link other perhaps less famous but nearly as prevailed at the time . The result: history fences and a single guard), all-consum- deadly accidents abound in Schlosser’s becomes the landscape against which ing fires on nuclear laden B-52 bombers, account . Schlosser describes another the Minuteman disaster is painted . But and safety kill switches in bomber cock- refueling mishap nearly as riveting as that landscape is itself so very rich and pits that were but the single barrier be- the Damascus incident . With its crew textured . It is replete with the important tween arming a weapon or not . Delivery attempting to bale (two of the four per- personalities who made nuclear his- of the weapons was everything . In the ished in the crash), nearly every safety tory and the weapons policies that they years before and just after ballistic mis- feature save one failed . Had this final championed . It runs deep with the ef- siles were developed, bombers played ready/safe switch been in the wrong po- forts of those who perceived the fine line pivotal roles in nuclear weapons convey- sition, a four-megaton bomb would have between nuclear catastrophe and nucle- ance . Yet, they repeatedly crashed (on deposited lethal fallout on Washington ar security . It is in short a book about the order of once every 20,000 hours of DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New heroes and those driven by their convic- flight time), endangering not only their York City, and this not three days after tions . Although there are many person- crews who readily accepted risk as part President Kennedy’s inaugural speech alities—so many that one may need the of their jobs but also U .S . citizens and al- vowing to “pay any price…to assure… twenty-page index and the “cast of char- lied populations who made no such cov- the success of liberty .” And thus, this acters” list he provides at the start of the enant . These aircraft had been designed book is also about the courage and sacri- book to occasionally reference them, the in an earlier time and not for carrying nu- fice of the dedicated military people who reader can feel empathy for all of those clear weapons . But they routinely toted faced deadly circumstances routinely, who battled the cultural intransigence of nuclear weapons in and around friendly flying missions in World War II aircraft, in the military in a quest to prevent a nu- territory . support of the continuous airborne alert clear cataclysm . These are not all well- The Palomares, Spain, incident in policy of General LeMay’s Strategic Air known names . They were weapons lab 1966 is perhaps the most famous of Command—often with deadly circum- engineers who recognized the safety these accidents . Four hydrogen weap- stances and too often a hair’s breath vulnerabilities but whose voices were ons were spilled from the guts of a B-52 away from a domestic or allied nuclear largely ignored—men like Bob Peurifoy when the bomber bumped a refueling catastrophe . and Bill Stevens of Sandia National Labo- plane and broke apart on a flight from The story is also about dedication, ratories and their Los Alamos colleague, North Carolina to Spain’s southern coast . persistence, and inquiry, perhaps no bet- Harold Agnew . Here too the reader en- Three weapons were recovered quickly— ter personified than by the unheralded counters the mission-driven and better the fourth required weeks to find in efforts of Fred Ilke, a RAND analyst who known military leaders such as General the half-mile deep Atlantic including began a thorough investigation of the pos- Curtis LeMay and his successor Gener- two attempts to bring it to the surface . sibilities of accidental and unauthorized al Thomas Power, both of whom were Plutonium was spilled from two of the nuclear weapon detonations . His 1958 driven to create and strengthen the ul- bombs when they crash landed to earth report, “On the Risk of an Accidental or timate bulwark against Soviet nuclear necessitating an expensive clean-up Unauthorized Nuclear Detonation,” was attack—the nuclear-armed Strategic Air and the shipment of 30,000 cubic feet the first well-researched independent
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 35 analysis of nuclear weapons safety in anisms, “common mode failures” and Schlosser provides recommendations the U .S . It concluded that the risk wasn’t the “one-point safe” concept . Prompted for background reading on the subject in negligible . It was exacerbated by the by the development of sealed pit boost- his nearly 100 page notes section . This technical challenges of nuclear weapons ed tritium weapons, the concept of one- is supplemented by a twenty-nine-page and plagued by human error and possibly point safety meant essentially, that in an bibliography . even sabotage . The risk of accidental war accident, an implosion of the weapon Human beings are imperfect . might have been low, but an accidental material would not occur thus prevent- They miscalculate . They make poor detonation might prompt an adversary to ing a nuclear disaster . When revealing judgments . They make mistakes . Yet retaliate in mistaken conclusion that an the difficulties the responder to the Da- Schlosser tells us, not one of the 70,000 attack had begun . The report coincided mascus incident faced, Schlosser does nuclear weapons that the U .S . built has with the initiation of SACs airborne alert an outstanding job describing the pre- ever detonated by mistake . The support- program . Spawned by the launch of Sput- computer era technology that added to ing policies and safeguard technologies nik that instigated fear of ballistic mis- their misfortune . Explanations of the lack have worked thus far . However, as the sile attack and championed by General of adequate radio-communications, the author understates in his final chapter, Power, it meant B-52s in flight around the cumbersome 1980s era personnel pro- even one accidental detonation would be clock carrying nuclear weapons . Keep- tective gear and the inability to properly “unacceptable .” The long development ing a portion of the air force in flight at all analyze the conditions inside the com- of successful nuclear weapons manage- times meant that a missile attack could promised silo are handled deftly . A dia- ment in the U .S . saw many mishaps and not destroy them all . But it also meant the gram of an underground Titan II missile narrowly averted catastrophes over the probability of a nuclear detonation over complex accompanies his well-informed past seventy years . Nations seeking nu- friendly territory would rise . account . clear weapons should think again about Schlosser did not shy away from Schlosser’s book is a Pulitzer Prize acquiring them . If Schlosser’s book has describing the engineering aspects finalist selection and it shows . He has any message beyond the shortcomings of nuclear weapons . This is a book for taken a complicated subject and placed of human performance it is that perfec- popular consumption but he achieved a into a form for an easy and agreeable tion of nuclear weapons command and good balance between techno-babble read . It is the type of book that once control is absolutely and unremittingly and well constructed prose . Readers started is difficult to put down . Nuclear required—but in no uncertain terms is will be interested in the technology sur- scientists of all disciplines and special- such vigilance eternally guaranteed . rounding Minuteman silos, weapons fir- ties will find it more than informative . ing systems, and weapons safety mech- They will find it engaging . As a bonus,
36 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 Industry News
Taking the Long View in a Time of Great Uncertainty
A World Full of Critical Uncertainties
By Jack Jekowski Industry News Editor and Chair of the Strategic Planning Committee
The 56th INMM Annual Meeting held ticipants who attended the meeting this there will be an election — that is a cer- in Indian Wells this year had a special year, including more than sixty interna- tain event . What the outcome of that tension in the air as participants antici- tional chapter members sponsored by election is, however, a critical uncertainty pated a possible announcement about the U .S . Department of State’s Partner- with respect to the future path the U .S ., the Iranian “nuclear deal,” now officially ship for Nuclear Security initiative 2. and perhaps, even the world, will travel . known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan Yet, even with the announcement In particular, based on the early rhetoric of Action (JCPOA) 1 . The “deal,” and of a successful agreement, and through- in the run-up to the election, continued whether it would be successfully culmi- out the subsequent debates on all sides, participation in the JCPOA by the U .S . nated by one of the most intensive dip- the actual implementation of the JCPOA might itself be in jeopardy with depending lomatic negotiations in this generation, is still uncertain, as is its ultimate “suc- upon the election’s outcome . was a critical uncertainty the world was cess .” This one issue touches on almost In previous columns,3 I have iden- facing with respect to how a path to the all facets of the Institute’s mission and tified and discussed “externalities,” a future might play out, and was prominent engages many of our members and their term that was used during the strategic in conversations during our meeting . On institutions . planning activities of the Institute’s Or- Tuesday morning, July 14, the news rip- ganizational Strategic Planning Working pled through the meeting attendees like Critical Uncertainties — a Sign Group (OSPWG) led by Ken Sorenson in the wildfire in the San Jacinto Mountains of Our Times 2009-2010 as the Institute reassessed that had threatened the Palm Springs In the world of scenario planning, fu- its goals and organizational structure . area during our Annual Meeting in 2013 . turists will work with organizations and The research into those externalities was To have such an historic event occur dur- management teams to identify what is intended to capture the issues, both do- ing the INMM Annual Meeting made it known as “critical uncertainties,” events mestically and internationally, that were a special time, with intense hallway dis- or sequences of events that could result impacting the Institute and its members, cussions, information and idea sharing, in a dramatic change for the path to the put them into strategic context, and then and challenging questions for presenters future, but at the current time are un- ask the question: “What do we need to during some of the technical presenta- certain as to how they will play out . The do given this new environment to make tions and panel sessions . The news was classic example that is cited in scenario the Institute as effective as possible made even more pertinent because of planning training is the U .S . presidential for its membership?” The result of that the large number of international par- election . In November 2016 we know work contributed to the strategic discus- sions that created the modified organiza-
This column is intended to serve as a forum to present and discuss current strategic issues tional structure for the Institute that ex- impacting the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management in the furtherance of its mission. ists today 4. These externalities, most of The views expressed by the author are not necessarily endorsed by the Institute, but are which are still valid five years later, form intended to stimulate and encourage JNMM readers to actively participate in strategic discussions. Please provide your thoughts and ideas to the Institute’s leadership on these the basic knowledge through which dis- and other issues of importance. With your feedback we hope to create an environment of cussions can identify the critical uncer- open dialogue, addressing the critical uncertainties that lie ahead for the world, and identify tainties of our time . the possible paths to the future based on those uncertainties that can be influenced by the Institute. Jack Jekowski can be contacted at [email protected].
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 37 The Uncertainties of the World world in the safety of nuclear power, 2010 would lead, and now, more We Live In much like the previous incidents at than four years later, where they ul- In looking back at the “externalities,” Chernobyl and Three Mile Island, timately will end . These events also issues, and “wildcards” that have been negatively impacting the burgeon- showed the world a new face of the discussed in this column over the past ing “nuclear renaissance ”.5 How power of social networks and the four years, it is quite remarkable how will those events continue to impact technology-enabled millennial gen- many still exist today, and equally remark- the advance of nuclear power inter- eration 9. Will a stable and functional able to see those that have emerged nationally, and will another future governing force emerge, or will we since the original strategic work done by event sound the death knell for nu- see the breakup of nation states dur- the OSPWG . It is from these lists that clear power as we know it?6 ing these difficult times? we can identify those driving forces that • The rise of nationalism amid the This, of course, is not an exhaustive, are most critical and most uncertain as modernization of nuclear forces. nor a detailed list of uncertainties that we a starting point to develop future world From Crimea to the Senkaku Islands face today—in fact the development of scenarios which would engage the Insti- to the economic and military interest driving forces and critical uncertainties in tute’s membership in strategic discus- in the newly opened Arctic, there is scenario planning typically engages many sions . A preliminary analysis of these a growing push by major powers, in- perspectives looking at social, technol- uncertainties has captured the following cluding the nuclear weapons states, ogy, economic, and political events to “top level” Critical Uncertainties: to exert their influence in the world, characterize the environment that is in- • The proliferation of nuclear weap- while prominently modernizing nu- fluencing paths to the future . Readers ons technology. The “genie is out clear aging stockpiles and delivery are encouraged to submit their thoughts of the bottle,” and the knowledge to systems 7. Where will these new and about the critical uncertainties that face build a nuclear weapon is now avail- threatening actions take the world the Institute in the coming years to the able not only to nation states, but during a time when perhaps memo- author for inclusion in a broader discus- also to non-state entities with evil in- ries are fading about the horrors of sion . The ordering of those into the most tentions . The international commu- global conflicts? critical and uncertain groups allows the nity now must actively engage not • The resolution of the Iranian scenario planner to begin to focus on a only in the monitoring and control nuclear issue. As described in small subset of future worlds that are of nuclear materials, but also those a previous column, the significant both challenging, yet feasible, leading to specialized technologies and manu- multi-national diplomatic effort to important strategic discussions of how facturing processes that are leading resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, to influence, or at least prepare for them . indicators of undesirable activities . strongly supported by the U S. ., will Can the scientific and diplomatic be a “litmus test” for the Obama Constructing the Scenarios community employ the tools of the administration’s efforts to elevate In its most useful form, an orthogonal 21st century to accomplish this veri- diplomacy as “…fundamental to construct using the two most distinctly fication process, and at least control our national security as our defense different and impactful critical uncer- the “genie”? Where will this journey capability.”8 As difficult as the nego- tainties, provides a landscape for creat- end? Will the path to the future be tiations were leading up to the final ing four distinct and challenging future “global zero” or a nightmare scenar- agreement, the path forward to suc- worlds 10. We will explore such a con- io depicted in Hollywood movies? cessful implementation is fraught struct in future columns as feedback is • The impact of the Fukushima nu- with challenges . obtained from the membership on the clear event. The tragic natural disas- • Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle critical uncertainties we are facing . To ter of March 11, 2011, that triggered East following the Arab Spring. It whet the appetite of readers, a set of a sequence of nuclear events at was uncertain where the tumultu- scenarios created by the author in 1998, the Fukushima nuclear power plant ous events of the Arab Spring that looking at an otherwise potentially op- shook the confidence of much of the began in Tunisia in December of timistic turn of the millennium, in the
38 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1
context of the underlying critical uncer- 1, pp, 39-41; Volume, 40, No . 4, tion-russian-response8290, “How tainties of the proliferation of nuclear pp . 148-149; Volume 41, No . 3, pp . to approach nuclear moderniza- weapons technologies and the theft or 20-22; and Volume 42, No . 3, pp . tion?: A Russian response .” diversion of nuclear materials, painted 71-74 . 8 . See “As the World Turns…Toward one future world where the “The Domi- 4 . See the following link on the a More Dangerous Place” Journal nos Fall .” This characterization, posited INMM website for the most of Nuclear Materials Management, by Dr . Sig Hecker, former director of the current functional organization Volume 41, No . 4, pp . 111-11 for Los Alamos National Laboratory, looked chart for the Institute: http:// an excerpt from the U .S . National at a troubling time when more and more www .inmm .org/AM/Template . Security Strategy on this issue; and nations joined the “nuclear club .” In a cfm?Section=Organizational_ “International Collaborations Amid later development for the INMM South- Chart1&Template=/CM/ContentDis- a 21st Century Test for Diplomacy” west Chapter’s Annual Technical Meet- play .cfm&ContentID=5037 Journal of Nuclear Materials Man- ing in 2002, the author created a new 5 . See “A Strategic Inflection Point? agement, Volume 43, No . 2, pp . 51- set of scenarios titled, “The Future of The Nuclear Crisis in Japan” Journal 53 for a discussion on the strategic Global Security,” that addressed the of Nuclear Materials Management, link between the Iranian diplomatic dramatically changed environment of Volume 39, No . 4, pp . 23-24, for negotiations and role of the IAEA a post-9/11 world 11. Both of these de- a more detailed discussion on the and the INMM . velopments were used in their time to early days after the March 11th 9 . See “Preparing for Social Chain develop strategic discussions within the incident . Reactions” Journal of Nuclear U .S . national security environment to 6 . In a recent paper, “Of Disasters Materials Management, Volume prepare for future alternatives that were and Dragon Kings: A Statistical 39, No . 3, pp . 28-29 for a more previously unimaginable . Analysis of Nuclear Power Inci- detailed discussion on the early And so it is with the times we live dents & Accidents,” Wheatley, et days of the Arab Spring and the in…how shall we enter them: naively, or al ., Cornell University Library, http:// uncertainty associated with regime prepared, but uncomfortable? This is the arxiv .org/abs/1504 .02380, the au- changes that were occurring during underlying exercise necessary to address thors conclude: “With the current that time; and “A Strategic Inflec- the answers to the question “what model and in terms of dollar losses, tion Point? — The Nuclear Crisis in keeps you awake at night?” there is a 50% chance that (i) a Japan” Journal of Nuclear Materi- Fukushima event (or larger) occurs als Management, Volume 39, No . Endnote in the next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl 4, pp . 23-24, for an excerpt from a 1 . The Joint Comprehensive Plan of event (or larger) occurs in the next U .S . State Department presentation Action full text, and five Annexes 27 years and (iii) a TMI event (or on the power and influence of the can be found at: http://www .state . larger) occurs in the next 10 years. social media . gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/ Further, smaller but still expensive 10 . The seminal work of creating useful 2 . See “Turning the Corner” Journal (≥ $20 M in 2013 USD) incidents scenarios was presented in Peter of Nuclear Materials Management, will occur with a frequency of about Schwartz’s book “The Art of the Volume 43, No . 1, pp . 65-67 for a one per year.” Long View: Planning for the Future more detailed discussion on this 7 . For discussions on the moderniza- in an Uncertain World,” which can special initiative that is working tion of nuclear stockpiles, see still be obtained on Amazon . with the INMM to create greater http://thebulletin .org/modernizing- 11 . See http://itpnm .com/inmm-post- international involvement in the nuclear-arsenals-whether-and- 9-11-scenarios pdf. for this paper . INMM, including student chapters . how7881, “Modernizing nuclear 3 . See “Taking the Long View in a arsenals: Whether and how”; and Time of Great Uncertainty” col- http://thebulletin .org/2015/may/ umns in JNMM, Volume 39, No . how-approach-nuclear-moderniza-
Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 39 Calendar
January 11–13, 2016 April 17–22, 2016 July 24–28, 2016 INMM 31st Spent Fuel Tritium 2016 INMM 57th Annual Meeting Management Seminar 11th International Conference Atlanta Marriott Marquis Washington Marriott Georgetown on Tritium Science & Technology Atlanta, GA USA Washington, DC USA Sponsored in part by INMM Charleston Marriott Charleston, SC USA September 18–23, 2016 April 17–19, 2016 www .tritium2016 .org PATRAM 2016 A Technical Meeting on Nuclear Kobe Portopia Hotel Energy and Cyber Security Kobe, Japan A Joint Meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, the U .S . Naval Academy and the American Nuclear Society Annapolis, MD USA
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Author Submission Guidelines
The Journal of Nuclear Materials Management is the official journal of the Institute Papers are acknowledged upon receipt and are submitted promptly for review of Nuclear Materials Management. It is a peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary journal and evaluation. Generally, the corresponding author is notified within ninety days that publishes articles on new developments, innovations, and trends in safeguards of submission of the original paper whether the paper is accepted, rejected, or and management of nuclear materials. Specific areas of interest include facility subject to revision. operations, international safeguards, materials control and accountability, nonpro- liferation and arms control, packaging, transportation and disposition, and physical Format: All papers must include: protection. JNMM also publishes book reviews, letters to the editor, and editorials. • Corresponding author's complete name, telephone number and email address • Name and address of the organization where the work was performed Submission of Manuscripts: JNMM reviews papers for publication with the under- • Abstract standing that the work was not previously published and is not being reviewed • Tables, figures, and photographs in TIFF, JPEG, or GIF formats.Color is encouraged. for publication elsewhere. This restriction includes papers presented at the INMM • Numbered references in the following format: Annual Meeting. Papers may be of any length. All papers must include an abstract. 1. Jones, F. T., and L. K. Chang. 1980. Article Title. Journal 47(No. 2): 112–118. 2. Jones, F. T. 1976. Title of Book, New York: McMillan Publishing. The Journal of Nuclear Materials Management is an English-language publication. • Author(s) biography and photos We encourage all authors to have their papers reviewed by editors or profes- • A list of keywords sional translators for proper English usage prior to submission. The Journal of Nuclear Materials Management does not print “foot notes.” We Papers should be submitted as Word or ASCII text files only. Graphic elements publish references and/or end notes. If you choose to include both references and must be sent in TIFF, JPEG or GIF formats as separate electronic files. notes, you may combine them under the same heading or you may keep them separate, in which case you must use numbers for the References (1., 2., 3., etc.) and Submissions may be made via email to Managing Editor Patricia Sullivan at letters (A., B., C., etc.) for the End Notes. [email protected]. Submissions may also be made via by regular mail. Include one hardcopy and a CD with all files. These submissions should be directed to: JNMM is published digitally in full color. Color graphics and images are encouraged.
Patricia Sullivan Peer Review: Each paper is reviewed by at least one associate editor and by two or Managing Editor more reviewers. Papers are evaluated according to their relevance and significance Journal of Nuclear Materials Management to nuclear materials safeguards, degree to which they advance knowledge, quality of One Parkview Plaza, Suite 800 presentation, soundness of methodology, and appropriateness of conclusions. Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181 USA Author Review: Accepted manuscripts become the permanent property of INMM and may not be published elsewhere without permission from the managing editor. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their work.
40 Journal of Nuclear Materials Management 2015 Volume XLIV, No. 1 For Office Use Only Membership Application All areas marked with * are required information.
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