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CTC Sentinel 1(7) JUNE 2008 . VOL 1 . ISSUE 7 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SENTINel OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents Al-Qa`ida in Iraq: Lessons from FEATURE ARTICLE the Mosul Security Operation 1 Al-Qa`ida in Iraq: Lessons from the By Michael Knights Mosul Security Operation By Michael Knights REPORTS 5 Engaging Islamists in the West By Peter Mandaville 8 The Taliban Consolidate Control in Pakistan’s Tribal Regions By Muhammad Amir Rana 10 The Demise of the Abu Sayyaf Group in the Southern Philippines By Zachary Abuza 13 When to Confront Mahdists: A Challenge for the U.S. Military By Reidar Visser 15 Constructing Takfir: From `Abdullah `Azzam to Djamel Zitouni By Shane Drennan 18 Iran’s Shi`a Reach Out to Mainstream Salafists By Alex Vatanka 21 A Global Counter-Insurgency Campaign AFP Plan for the War on Terror 2 By Colonel James H. Johnson, U.S. Army he demise of al-Qa`ida in Iraq incidents dropping by 85%. As the (AQI)1 has been heralded on a result of leadership targeting and the 23 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity number of occasions during the loss of safe havens, Multinational Force 28 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts T past five years, only to witness Iraq (MNF-I) spokesman Rear Admiral the movement adapt to survive by Patrick Driscoll characterized AQI and shifting to new safe havens. Following other insurgent groups in Mosul as the conclusion of the latest phase of being “off-balance and on the run.”3 Operation Za’ir al-Assad fi Sawlat al- Haqq (Lion’s Roar in Rightful Assault), Conversely, there is also a degree of or the Mosul security plan, the subject caution based on AQI’s proven tendency About the CTC Sentinel of al-Qa`ida in Iraq’s fortunes is once to relocate, lay low and reemerge in The Combating Terrorism Center is an again in the headlines. The 10-day a new area months later. A late May independent educational and research push by security forces into insurgent video recording released by the al- institution based in the Department of Social neighborhoods between May 10-20, Furqan Institute for Media Production, Sciences at the United States Military Academy, 2008, witnessed very low levels of the media production unit most closely West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses violence, with the number of recorded associated with the Islamic State of 4 the Center’s global network of scholars and Iraq or ISI umbrella movement, saw practitioners in order to understand and confront contemporary threats posed by 1 AQI has become a catch-all phrase used to describe any 2 This information was from a statement made by then terrorism and other forms of political violence. Sunni Arab diehard militant who has not integrated into Multinational Division North (MND-N) commander Ma- the Awakening (sahwa) movements or their associated jor General Mark Hertling. police auxiliary units, the so-called “Sons of Iraq.” For 3 Gerry J. Gilmore, “Al-Qaida in Iraq Is On the Run, The views expressed in this report are those of the purposes of this article, however, AQI refers to the Officials Say,” American Forces Press Service, May 27, the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, terrorist group that has been allied with and subordinate 2008. the Department of the Army, or any other agency 4 Since the inception of the ISI umbrella movement in Oc- of the U.S. Government. to al-Qa`ida since 2004. It is led by Abu Ayyub al-Masri (an Egyptian also known as Abu Hamza al-Muhajir). tober 2006, there have been strong indications that AQI 1 JUNE 2008 . VOL 1 . ISSUE 7 a spokesman claiming to represent ISI Mosul’s Importance that decade, including Abu Mus`ab in Ninawa Province warning that “until The center of gravity for the Sunni Arab al-Zarqawi’s people-moving networks now, we have not been engaged…because resistance has been inexorably shifting and the Ansar al-Islam movement. we are the ones who control the hour to northwards during the past year. Since 2003, the direct connection to start the initiative and we will choose Southern and western AQI operating Syria via Tal Afar and Sinjar means the time for retaliation or engagement.”5 areas have been seriously constrained that Mosul is a key hub in the northern The communiqué suggested that AQI by counter-insurgency approaches and “rat-line” bringing foreign volunteers elements had dispersed before the 10- the surge of forces developed by MNF-I. into Iraq via the al-Rabi’a area, which is day security push began and that the According to Olive Group’s databases, arguably the only fully functional line vast majority of arrests had fallen on Anbar Province saw reported incidents still processing significant numbers of the Iraqi population of Mosul instead of drop from 976 in January 2007 to foreign volunteers.10 AQI/ISI leaders. 158 in January 2008. Babil, likewise, witnessed a drop from 544 monthly As the capital of Ninawa Province, The true picture lies somewhere incidents in January 2007 to 180 one some consider Mosul as a new center of between these two images. The only year later. Baghdad is no longer the gravity for Sunnis in Iraq, with Sunni way to get closer to an accurate epicenter of the insurgency; in pre-surge Arabs representing approximately half assessment is to get into the weeds of March 2007, MNF-I estimated that 80% of its 1.4 million residents, the balance the Mosul security operation and to of the violence in Iraq occurred in the comprising approximately 500,000 blend street-level tactical data with the region within 19 miles of Baghdad. By Kurds and 200,000 Turkmen (Shi`a overarching strategic context of AQI’s January 2008, this figure had dropped and Sunni), Assyrian Christians and to around 25%. Iraq’s capital witnessed other groups. The ethnic tension caused a decline from 1,259 reported incidents by this diversity has worked in the “Within the north, the city in January 2007 to 425 incidents a year favor of takfiri groups because it has of Mosul has consistently later.7 constrained the development of sahwa and Sons of Iraq movements, at least been an area of strength Sunni Arab areas north of the capital until recently. Kurdish-dominated Iraqi for takfiri and Islamist- now contain a far larger share of violent Army forces garrison most areas, and incidents than Baghdad, Babil and Sunni fears of “reverse-Arabization” nationalist resistance Anbar. Yet, the most stubborn holdout (ethnic cleansing) by Kurdish forces groups in Iraq.” has been Ninawa, where incidents have proven particularly beneficial to actually increased from 463 per month takfiri elements all along the multi-ethnic in January 2007 to 685 per month swathe bordering the Kurdistan Regional in January 2008 and later to an all- Government zone. Furthermore, Mosul nationwide reverses and growing Iraqi time high of 747 incidents in February and its environs have seen a very sparse government sensitivity to the Sunni 2008.8 level of garrisoning by MNF-I troops Arab community’s needs. This article since early 2004, with large tracts of draws on a database of 5,984 geo-located Within the north, the city of Mosul has the city ceded to the insurgency for 12- incidents reported in Ninawa Province consistently been an area of strength for 18 months at a time.11 from April 2007 to April 2008, itself takfiri9 and Islamist-nationalist resistance a sub-set of a data set of more than groups in Iraq. Mosul is home to a high “Routine” AQI Activity in Mosul 100,000 geo-located incidents recorded proportion of the Saddam-era Iraqi It is worth examining the types of across the whole of Iraq during the last officer corps, and the post-war looting activity undertaken by AQI and similar 18 months.6 Geospatial intelligence of a number of major Ammunition movements in Ninawa Province during is then combined with MNF-I, Iraqi Supply Points in and around the city the last 12 months. Mosul sits at the and open source media reportage plus left the metropolitan area seeded with center of a number of conflict zones; to direct commentary from embedded thousands of tons of munitions. Mosul the west are Tal Afar and Sinjar, large reporters in Iraq. As always, the key was also a major center of Saddam’s towns strung along the takfiri “rat-line” to understanding a terrorist group is to “Return to Faith” campaign in the to Syria, as well as rural staging posts look closely at its actions. 1990s, and the city’s position astride that fan out from the main road into the roads headed toward Turkey and Syria desert along the border. To the south, is the dominant force within the ISI, which is notionally made it a transshipment point for takfiri a range of rural farming communities led by Abu Abdullah al-Rashid al-Baghdadi (also known groups moving through Iraq during along the Tigris River is a crossroads as Abu `Umar al-Baghdadi), an Iraqi spokesman that the for takfiri elements moving up and U.S. government claims is a fictional figure designed to 7 These figures were derived from Olive Group’s data- down the river and interacting with give the movement an Iraqi face. base. other important AQI operating areas 5 Bushra Juhi, “Militant Group Warns of Mosul Retalia- 8 Ibid. such as Hawija; the Jazira desert areas tion,” Associated Press, May 27, 2008. 9 The term takfiri in this article refers to Sunni insurgent 6 The database is maintained by private security com- groups that justify violence against some Muslims and 10 Personal interview, U.S.
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