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Section 1: Introduction SECTION 5.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN 5.2 IDENTIFICATION OF NATURAL HAZARDS OF CONCERN To provide a strong foundation for mitigation strategies considered in Section 6.0, Somerset County considered a full range of natural hazards that could Hazards of Concern are defined as those hazards impact the area, and then identified and ranked those hazards that presented the that are considered most greatest concern. The natural hazard of concern identification process likely to impact a incorporated input from the County and participating jurisdictions; review of community. These are the State of New Jersey Hazard Mitigation Plan (NJ HMP) and previous hazard identified using available identification efforts; research and local, state, and federal information on the data and local knowledge. frequency, magnitude, and costs associated with the various hazards that have previously, or could feasibly, impact the region; and qualitative or anecdotal information regarding natural hazards and the perceived vulnerability of the study area’s assets to them. Table 5.2-1 documents the process of identifying the natural hazards of concern for further profiling and evaluation. For the purposes of this planning effort, the Planning Committee chose to group some natural hazards together, based on the similarity of hazard events, their typical concurrence or their impacts, consideration of how hazards have been grouped in Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) guidance documents (FEMA 386-1, “Understanding Your Risks, Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses; FEMA’s “Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment – The Cornerstone of the National Mitigation Strategy”), and consideration of hazard grouping in the NJ HMP. The “Flood” hazard includes riverine flooding, flash flooding, ice-jam flooding, and dam flooding. Other types of flooding such as coastal do not occur within this county; therefore, they were not further considered for inclusion within this HMP. Inclusion of the various forms of flooding under a general “Flood” hazard is consistent with that used in FEMA’s “Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment” guidance. The “Severe Storm” hazard includes windstorms that often entail a variety of other influencing weather conditions including thunderstorms, hail, lightning and tornados. Since tropical disturbances are identified as a type of severe storm event, this hazard also includes tropical cyclone events (hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions). Tropical cyclones were not grouped as a separate hazard, because the county felt that these types of events do not directly impact the County on a frequent basis and that exposure and risk of such events are minimal in comparison to communities along the New Jersey coastline. However, this was found to be an exception for certain tropical events that created a regional impact upon the state, such as Tropical Storm Doria (1971) and Tropical Storm Floyd (1999), as further discussed in Section 5.4.1 Severe Storm of this HMP. The “Severe Winter Storm” hazard includes heavy snowfall, blizzards, freezing rain/sleet, ice storms, and extra-tropical cyclones (nor’easters and severe winter low-pressure systems). Extra-tropical events generally occur during winter weather months; therefore, for the purpose of this HMP, all such events are to be grouped within this hazard. Although not all extra-tropical events, such as Nor’Easters, occur during the winter, they will remain grouped within this hazard category to avoid duplication of events in hazard profiles. This grouping is consistent with that used in the NJ HMP. Please note that technological [e.g. hazardous material incidents] and man-made hazards (e.g. terrorism) are not being addressed in this planning process. The DMA 2000 regulations do not require consideration of such hazards, these were not chosen for inclusion in this plan by the County and planning participants. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update – Somerset County, New Jersey 5.2-1 August 2013 SECTION 5.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN Table 5.2-1 – Identification of Natural Hazards of Concern for Somerset County Is this a If yes, does this hazard that hazard pose a Hazard Why was this determination made? Source(s) may occur significant threat to in SC? the County? The NJ HMP does not identify avalanche as a hazard of concern for NJ HMP NJ. Review of NAC- The topography and climate of SC does not support the occurrence of AAA database Avalanche No No an avalanche event. between 1950 and NJ in general has a very low occurrence of avalanche events based 2006. on statistics provided by National Avalanche Center – American Avalanche Association (NAC-AAA) between 1950 and 2006. The NJ HMP identifies coastal erosion as a hazard of concern for NJ. NJ HMP Coastal Counties bounded by coastal waters are most affected by coastal No No Erosion erosion. SC is not bounded by coastal waters; therefore, coastal erosion was not identified as a hazard of concern by the county. The NJ HMP identifies drought as a hazard of concern for NJ. NJ o NJ HMP HMP indicated that SC experienced drought events during the o USGS following time periods: o NRCC o March 1995 o NOAA o October 1997 o D. Ludlum (NJ o December 1998 Weather Book) o January 1999 1983 o July-September 1999 o DIR o November-December 2001 o ONJSC o January-July 2002 o NDMC o September - October 2002 o Gov. Byrne o September 2005 EO Drought Yes Yes o May-July 2006 o Gov. Whitman o Counties most affected by drought are those dependent on water EO stored aboveground in reservoirs. SC is one of those counties. o SHELDUS o USGS indicated that many statewide drought events which generally impacted all counties of NJ, have occurred, including, but not limited to, the following: o July – September 1923 o January – February 1931 o November 1931 – February 1932 o December 1939 – January 1940 o November 1949 – January 1950 o July – August 1963 o August 1964 – August 1966 (25 month period) DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update – Somerset County, New Jersey 5.2-2 August 2013 SECTION 5.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN Is this a If yes, does this hazard that hazard pose a Hazard Why was this determination made? Source(s) may occur significant threat to in SC? the County? o July – August 1999 o December 2001 – May 2002 As indicated by other sources, additional drought events to impact SC include: o May – July 1949 – Warmest summer in the northeast U.S. SC only had 0.08 inches of rain during this time. o May 1980 – May 1981 – Affected central and eastern U.S., causing an estimated $20 B in damage/cost to agriculture, estimated 10,000 deaths. Serious rainfall deficits in much of NJ. Governor Byrne declared a state of emergency in several SC jurisdictions. o March – October 1995 – Unseasonably hot and dry weather in northwestern and central NJ, with the drought intensifying during the summer months. Rainfall totals below normal for much of NJ. Gov. Whitman declared a state of emergency in SC. o July 1998 – September 1999 (Drought of 1999) – Worst drought ever for farmers in NJ. Senate approved $7.4 B in farm aid. Farming industry lost $80 M in NJ due to the drought. NJ declared a drought emergency by the Clinton Administration. A drought emergency was declared in SC by Gov. Whitman. The drought resulted in $5 M in crop damage in SC. The NJ HMP identifies earthquake as a hazard of concern for NJ. NJ HMP Although they are known to occur on a regular basis, records indicate NJ OEM that no major earthquakes have struck the state since the NJGS establishment of historical record-keeping (1500’s). Between 1924 USGS – Earthquake and 1999, there have been 17 documented earthquakes in NJ and 23 Hazards Program, along the state’s border with Pennsylvania and New York, none of Review of USGS which took place in SC. Seismic Maps Earthquake Yes No The USGS reported 7 damaging earthquakes that were felt in NJ NJGS Report between 1737 and 1927. Chimney damage was reported; no deaths DGS04-1 (as reported for these incidents. indicated in NJ HMP) Although relatively weak events, 145 earthquakes have occurred in NJ NJDEP from the 1500’s to the Present. NJ DEP reports that damaging earthquakes in NJ are rare but have happened and will happen again. Location of potential future events is not clearly identified. Expansive The NJ HMP does not identify expansive soils as a hazard of concern NJ HMP No No Soils for NJ. Review of USGS DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update – Somerset County, New Jersey 5.2-3 August 2013 SECTION 5.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN Is this a If yes, does this hazard that hazard pose a Hazard Why was this determination made? Source(s) may occur significant threat to in SC? the County? USGS indicated that 50% or less of the soils in SC consist of clay that 1989 Swelling Clays has slight to moderate potential of swelling. Map of the Conterminous United States. The NJ HMP identifies extreme heat as a hazard of concern for NJ NJ HMP citing 61 extreme heat events between 1950 and 2009. The NJ HMP SHELDUS also identifies extreme cold as a hazard of concern for NJ. NOAA – NCDC Extreme temperatures are generally a regional hazard event, affecting Storm Events Query a large swath of counties and/or states simultaneously. D. Ludlum (NJ Many sources have indicated that all counties of NJ have experienced Weather Book) 1983 extreme temperature events (heat waves or cold temperatures). Most ONJSC recent events: February 1996 – Extreme Cold throughout NJ. Blackwell Mills experienced temperatures near -8oF July 1997 – Excessive Heat effecting 16 counties (25 injuries) July 1999 – All NJ counties affected by a Heat Wave, with 17 fatalities and 160 injuries.
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