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Hazard Assessment of Storm Events for the Battery, New York See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284359149 Hazard assessment of storm events for The Battery, New York ARTICLE in OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT · NOVEMBER 2015 Impact Factor: 1.75 · DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.006 READS 32 4 AUTHORS, INCLUDING: José L. S. Pinho José S. Antunes do Carmo University of Minho University of Coimbra 88 PUBLICATIONS 142 CITATIONS 143 PUBLICATIONS 438 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, Available from: José L. S. Pinho letting you access and read them immediately. Retrieved on: 04 April 2016 Dear Author, Please, note that changes made to the HTML content will be added to the article before publication, but are not reflected in this PDF. Note also that this file should not be used for submitting corrections. OCMA3821_proof ■ 11 November 2015 ■ 1/10 Ocean & Coastal Management xxx (2015) 1e10 55 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect 56 57 Ocean & Coastal Management 58 59 60 journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman 61 62 63 64 65 1 Q4 Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York 66 2 67 3 a a b, * b 68 Q3 Mariana Peixoto Gomes , Jose Luís Pinho , Jose S. Antunes do Carmo , Lara Santos 4 69 a 5 University of Minho, Braga, Portugal 70 b University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal 6 71 7 72 8 73 article info abstract 9 74 10 75 Article history: The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present 11 76 Received 1 October 2014 these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human 12 77 Received in revised form occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, 13 6 November 2015 throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal 78 14 Accepted 8 November 2015 flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human 79 Available online xxx 15 lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The 80 16 propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate 81 17 Keywords: fi Cyclones change phenomena will contribute to the intensi cation of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation 82 fl 18 Storm surges of coastal ooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal 83 19 Hazard assessment zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through nu- 84 20 Numerical modeling merical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical 85 New York coast storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms 21 86 Delft3D 22 of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are fi 87 23 generated using a speci c tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the 88 24 United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of 89 25 The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling 90 26 results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed. 91 27 © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 92 28 93 29 94 30 95 31 96 32 97 33 1. Introduction events can cause or worsen various risk situations, such as episodes 98 fl 34 of overtopping of coastal defenses, coastal ooding with local water 99 35 Coastal zones are of major importance due to their intrinsic surface elevation anomalies reaching up to several meters (Kron, 100 36 environmental and socio-economic characteristics, mainly related 2012), coastal erosion and loss of territory, resulting in countless 101 37 with their high demographic densities (residents and tourists damages including loss of property and human lives. 102 38 during the bathing season) and natural resources. These areas are Variations of storm surge heights depend on numerous factors, 103 39 affected by natural disasters mainly caused by weather events, such as the tropical storm category, forward speed, radius of 104 40 including coastal storms that can induce storm surges. A storm maximum winds (RMW), proximity of the storm trajectory to the 105 41 surge is an irregular rise in sea level generated by a tropical cy- coastal zone, bathymetry, coastal geomorphology and shape of the 106 42 clone's wind, waves, and low atmospheric pressure. Storm tides are coastline (Nott, 2006). However, the storm's forward speed can be 107 43 also induced when the combination of astronomic high tides and considered one of the most important factors presenting a greater 108 fl 44 the storm surge occurs, causing high elevations of the water surface in uence than the wind intensity or the RMW (Rego and Li, 2009). 109 45 (FEMA, 2003). Fast moving storms cause higher surges over open coast and lower 110 46 Tropical storms and wind storms, constituting about 38% of the surges in protected estuaries, while slower moving storms usually 111 fl fl 47 total natural disasters, are responsible for 19% of deaths, 39% of result in greater ooding in estuaries and smaller values of ooding 112 48 overall losses and 72% of global insured losses (Kron, 2012). Such along the coast. 113 49 Thus, numerical modeling systems are essential for a detailed 114 50 forecast of the possible impacts of coastal storms in terms of water 115 * fl 51 Corresponding author. levels, ood area and wind speed. Such studies should allow for the 116 E-mail address: [email protected] (J.S. Antunes do Carmo). 52 117 53 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.006 118 54 0964-5691/© 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 119 Please cite this article in press as: Gomes, M.P., et al., Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York, Ocean & Coastal Management (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.006 OCMA3821_proof ■ 11 November 2015 ■ 2/10 2 M.P. Gomes et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management xxx (2015) 1e10 1 identification of the most vulnerable areas and assist in proper Association of Port Authorities, AAPA, ranked the Port of New York/ 66 2 planning and management of existing coastal resources in the long New Jersey as the second busiest port in the United Stated, based on 67 3 term. In the future, such scenarios may worsen due to climate total imports and exports by weight (American Association of Port 68 4 change occurrences, considering the possible rise in sea level Authorities (2014)). 69 5 (Klemas, 2009), as well as coastal storms with greater frequency The NYC Panel on Climate Change, NPCC, projects that New York 70 6 and intensity (Weisse et al., 2012). City could see up to 0.76 m of sea level rise by the 2050s as well as 71 7 Tropical cyclones usually form between 5 and 30N latitude, triple the number of days above 90 F(NPCC, 2013). The Pre- 72 8 usually moving toward the west. This 5N formation is required in liminary Work Maps released by FEMA in June 2013 for the 2020s 73 9 order to produce a minimum of Coriolis force required for the predict that the flooded area could expand to 153 km2, encom- 74 10 development of a tropical cyclone (Landsea and Goldenberg, 2004). passing 88,000 buildings. That magnitude of sea level rise can 75 11 In the North Atlantic Basin, tropical storms occur with a certain threaten communities residing in low-lying New York areas and 76 12 seasonality (mainly concentrated between August and September) make flooding as severe as today's 100-year storm at The Battery up 77 13 and usually affect the Eastern United States and Canada (between 1 to five times more likely. New York City in collaboration with the 78 14 and 2 storms every year) and occasionally also Western Europe (one Swiss Reinsurance Company has performed an initial loss- 79 15 storm in 1 or 2 years) (Hart and Evans, 2001; Keim et al., 2004). In the modeling, which indicates that due to sea level rise, NYC is 17% 80 16 case of the Eastern United States, the Atlantic “hurricane season” more likely in the 2020s to see a storm that causes nineteen billion 81 17 runs from June 1st to November 30th (Landsea and Goldenberg, dollars in damages, as Superstorm Sandy did (Bloomberg, 2013). 82 18 2004). When reaching 30N latitude, the tropical cyclones often The main objective of this work is to study storm surge occur- 83 19 move northwest affecting the Eastern United States and Canada. rences in the northeastern United States coast. The ongoing pop- 84 20 As the tropical cyclone develops, it reaches a point where it ulation increase along the coast, verified in the United States' 85 21 transitions from a tropical system to an extratropical system. A eastern coast only exacerbates the importance of the effects of 86 22 tropical transition is referred to as a tropical cyclone that moves eventual coastal flooding resulting from storm surges. This work 87 23 over colder water and into strong shear at high latitudes (Hart and seeks to identify and analyze the impact of historic tropical systems 88 24 Evans, 2001).
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