February 1 – February 15

CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations)…………………………………………3 Americas……………………………………………………………………..6 Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………..11 China and East Asia………………………………………………………...19 Europe……………………………………………………………………….21 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………...25 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………..36 South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….42 United Nations……………………………………………………………….48

Area Briefs: 1-15 February 2018

General Observations

Pakistan

• Pakistan was under attack by the US on multiple forums – both US domestic and international. In many ways ever since Trump enunciated his new South Asia policy, Pakistan has been put under pressure especially as the US finds itself unable to recover from its Afghan failures. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme has always been a favourite target of US regimes and on 13 February the Director of US National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, warned that Pakistan was developing new categories of nuclear weapons, including tactical weapons, which would increase the risks in the region. There was no mention of India’s growing nuclear arsenal and its Ballistic Missile Defence system development. The Report, presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee by Coats had been prepared by 17 US intelligence agencies.

On another front, the US once again sought to place Pakistan on the Grey List of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) relating to terror financing. The US co-opted the UK and later on France and Germany into moving a resolution against Pakistan – to be discussed at the FATF meeting between 18-23 February. The fact that the US made this move contrary to the norms and procedures of the FATF showed that the technical body was now being used for political purposes to pressure Pakistan to fall in line with US policy demands on Afghanistan.

• Interestingly, on 12 February, the Trump Administration asked Congress to approve $336 million in civil and military aid to Pakistan for the fiscal year 2019 even as some Congressmen moved legislation to halt all non-defence aid to Pakistan – since earlier the US had stopped defence aid to Pakistan. Now the Trump Administration was seeking to link military assistance to Pakistan fulfilling US demands for action against alleged terrorist havens in Pakistan.

• The COAS General Bajwa visited Kabul for the Chiefs of Defence Conference on 13 February and in his address to the conference he stated that Pakistan had eliminated all militant sanctuaries from its territory.

Earlier, in a related development, on 10 February, Pakistan and Afghanistan concluded two days of talks under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister, Hekmat Khalil Karzai led their respective delegations which comprised civil and military

officials. No progress was made during these talks to lower Pak-Afghan tensions that continue to prevail.

• On 2 February the Pakistan Air Force successfully test-fired a BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and IR (Infrared) missile from JF-17 Thunder aircraft.

• On 12 February Indian Occupied Kashmir’s Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti, called for talks with Pakistan stating that “there is no alternative”.

International

• On February 2, the Pentagon released its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). In it Russia and China are identified as the main adversaries of the US and are seen as “revisionist” powers. North Korea is also seen as a threat to the US while Iran is viewed with suspicions regarding intent to develop nuclear weapons despite the JCPOA agreement. The NPR commits the US to developing a whole new range of nuclear weapons including tactical nuclear weapons. This development is in clear contravention of Article VI of the Non Proliferation Treaty.

• In response to the NPR, on 4 February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the US of having a “Cold War mentality”. Iran also responded to the US criticism of the country by stating categorically that it had a legitimate right to develop ballistic missiles. On 10 February, Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on International Affairs, reiterated this position.

• In a related development, on 8 February, Denis Chaibi, Head of the Iranian taskforce at the European Union’s external action service, said the EU could put in place regulations to protect its firms doing business in Iran if the US withdraws from the JCPOA.

• After the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to India, Indian Prime Minister Modi undertook a visit to Arab states and Palestine to counter any damage that may have been done to India’s relations with its Arab allies. On 10 February, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Palestine. Modi then proceeded to the UAE.

• The situation in Syria deteriorated further with Israel getting further involved more directly into the conflict. On 10 February, a Syrian anti-aircraft missile downed an Israeli F-16, which was returning from a bombing raid on Iran-backed positions in Syria. As the

rhetoric increased on both sides, there was a growing danger that the war would expand further complicating the already complicated threads of the Syrian conflict.

Adding to the complications, has been the growing distrust between the US and Turkey in Syria with the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on 12 February accusing the US of intentionally stalling the fight against Daesh as an excuse not to cut ties with Syrian Kurdish militiamen.

• On 14 February, the Taliban said they wanted to end the war in Afghanistan through talks. They made this offer in a statement, which they addressed, to the American people.

• On 8 February 8, the Chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia got a five-year imprisonment term for corruption, which means she would not be able to contest in the upcoming elections in the country. --- Dr Shireen M Mazari Director General

AMERICAS

Domestic

• On February 15, the Senate shot down four immigration bills, including a Republican measure supported by President Trump and a competing bipartisan proposal.

The votes marked an end to the week that had started with hopes of a rare, open-ended debate on the Senate floor and the possibility of a bipartisan breakthrough to a thorny issue. The bipartisan breakthrough quickly ended however. Both bills would have offered legal protections to more than 1 million undocumented immigrants who came to the USA as children. The Senate’s failure to reach an agreement on the issue of immigration puts those immigrants, known as DREAMers, at risk of deportation starting March 5, 2018. The White House plans to end legal protections granted under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals programme. The House also remains divided on the issue of immigration, and GOP leaders there have not scheduled a vote on any legislation. The White House has said it cannot extend the programme, leaving no clear path for a resolution to their status. Meanwhile Federal Judges have ordered the Administration to renew protection for people in the programme. In January 2018, the Trump Administration released its legislative framework for immigration reform. It talks about $25bn to build a border wall and a path to citizenship for beneficiaries of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Act. The framework also seeks to end visa quotas for “family reunification,” which allows parents and siblings of US citizens to migrate to the US and completely eliminate the Diversity Visa Lottery.

• On February 14, seventeen people were killed in a shooting at a high school in south eastern Florida.

The attacker was identified as nineteen-year-old Nikolas Cruz. He was taken into custody and charged with 17 counts of premeditated murder. At least five people sustained life-threatening injuries. Cruz later confessed to the shooting. Florida Governor Rick Scott termed the shooting “pure evil.” Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said Congress was “responsible for the level of mass atrocity that happens to this country with zero parallel anywhere else.” He added, “As a parent, it scares me to death that this body doesn’t take serious the safety of my children.” Meanwhile President Trump and his Republican colleagues chose to focus on mental health issues and not talk about gun control angering their Democratic counterparts.

• Reuters reported on February 9 that the Trump Administration is considering making it harder for foreigners living in the country to get permanent residency if they or their US- born children use public benefits such as food assistance.

The move could sharply restrict legal immigration. The Department of Homeland Security has drafted rules that would allow immigration officers to scrutinise a potential immigrant’s use of taxpayer-funded public benefits to determine if they could become a public burden. They could

6 look at whether the applicant has enrolled a child in government pre-school programmes or received subsidies for utility bills or health insurance premiums. The draft rules are contrary to current guidelines, which have been in place since 1999 and specifically bar authorities from considering such non-cash benefits in deciding a person’s eligibility to immigrate to the United States or stay in the country.

• On February 7, Senate leaders reached a bipartisan agreement that would add hundreds of billions of dollars to military and domestic programmes over the next two years.

The deal “would also raise the federal debt limit, moving to end the cycle of fiscal showdowns that have roiled the Capitol.” The agreement between Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, and Chuck Schumer of New York, his Democratic counterpart, would raise strict caps on military and domestic spending that were imposed in 2011 as part of a deal with President Barack Obama. The deal would increase spending caps by $300 billion over two years. The limit on military spending would increase by $80 billion in the current fiscal year and $85 billion, beginning October 1, 2018. The limit on non-defence spending would increase by $63 billion this year and $68 billion next year. The accord was not without problems however. Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House Democratic leader took the house floor in opposition, protesting that the deal did nothing to bring lawmakers closer to protecting young immigrants brought to the country illegally as children. She then delivered a record-breaking speech that tied up the House for the entire day and into the night.

• On February 2, the Dow tumbled 666 points its sixth-biggest point loss ever and suffered its worst week in two years.

According to observers, investors became wary of spiking interest rates, ending the optimism that had been powering stocks to record highs. The investors’ mood swung from euphoria to real concern that the stock market, which as recently as last week was hitting new highs, might be at the start of its first sizable decline in years. The market, is down 4% from its recent peak, hasn’t suffered a 10% drop, or “correction,” since February 2016. The point drop is the worst since the financial crisis, might seem big and cause anxiety for investors who might have gotten too complacent. However, the Dow Jones industrial average’s 2.5% slide didn’t even come close to a top-20 percentage drop for the popular stock gauge.

International

• On February 15, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson started a two-day visit to Turkey.

Tillerson hopes to ease the increasing tensions between US and Turkey over the Syrian conflict. The war of words between the two sides has escalated ever since Turkey launched a military offensive into the Afrin region of northern Syria in January 2018 in order to root out Kurdish YPG fighters, who are a part of US-backed coalition of armed groups. Following visits to

Kuwait, Jordan and Lebanon, Tillerson arrived in the Turkish capital, Ankara, where he met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In a related development on February 13, 2018, Turkey demanded the US expel the YPG from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition, which has been fighting Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria with support from the US. “We demanded this relationship be ended, I mean we want them to end all the support given to the Syrian arm of PKK, the YPG,” Turkish Defence Minister Nurettin Canikli told reporters during a briefing in Brussels. The remarks came a day after his meeting with US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis on the sidelines of a NATO meeting.

• According to the VOA on February 15, Pakistan has criticised as “extremely unfortunate,” a new US report which calls its nuclear weapons a continued threat to regional American interests.

The Annual Global Threat Assessment of the United States notes that Pakistan continues to produce and develop new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles. According to the report, “These new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region.” It has now been sent to a Congressional committee for review. The US intelligence assessment report has also warned of increasing tension in the event of a major terrorist attack in India or an increase in violence on the Kashmir Line of Control. Pakistan’s relations with the US continue to deteriorate over allegations that Islamabad covertly maintains ties with the Taliban and other militant groups fighting US forces in Afghanistan.

• Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told lawmakers on February 13 that Pakistan was holding back on cooperation with the US while failing to take tougher action against militant groups.

Coats said Pakistan is only trying to appear tougher. “Ongoing Pakistani military operations against the Taliban and associated groups probably reflect the desire to appear more proactive and responsive to our requests for more actions against these groups,” Coats told the Senate Intelligence Committee. Coats asserted that the actions Pakistan had taken to date did not reflect a significant escalation of pressure against these groups and were unlikely to have a lasting effect. Coats also told the committee that intelligence agencies believe Islamabad isn’t likely to change its behaviour soon. It would continue “to slow walk cooperation with the US, while maintaining ties with the Taliban and the Haqqani network.”

• During an interview to VOA on February 8, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal said that the United States’ attempt to cut Pakistan’s military or civilian aid may lead to further complications in the relations between the two countries.

Iqbal was responding to a question from VOA’s Urdu Service regarding the February 6, 2018 bill introduced in the US House of Representatives to end non-defence aid to the country. Representatives Mark Sanford, a Republican from South Carolina, and Thomas Massie, a

Republican from Kentucky, introduced the legislation to prohibit non-defence aid to Pakistan, saying “Pakistan is a country that knowingly provides resources for terrorists.” Massie said, “The United States should not funnel money to a government that provides military aid and intelligence to terrorists.” Pakistan denies this charge and said that the United States is not giving much to Pakistan in the first place.

• According to Reuters on February 12, the US is secretly endorsing deeper post-Olympics engagement between South and North Korea that could lead eventually to direct talks with the US.

However, the US maintains that sanctions must be intensified to push Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons. With South Korea considering a rare summit with the North, Vice President Mike Pence said in an interview to the Washington Post that the US and South Korea had agreed on the basic terms to guide future diplomatic contacts with North Korea. Pence said Washington would step up its “maximum pressure campaign” against Pyongyang but at the same time would be open to talks without pre-conditions.

• During a Senate hearing on February 12, US Senators and spy chiefs warned that China is trying to gain access to sensitive US technologies and intellectual properties through telecommunications companies, academia and joint business ventures.

Chinese companies have come under greater scrutiny in the US in recent years over fears they may be spying on behalf of the Chinese government, a fact they have consistently denied. Republican Senator Richard Burr, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he worried about the spread in the United States of what he called “counterintelligence and information security risks that come prepackaged with the goods and services of certain overseas vendors.” He also said, “The focus of my concern today is China, and specifically Chinese telecoms (companies) like Huawei and ZTE Corp, that are widely understood to have extraordinary ties to the Chinese government.”

• According to Reuters on February 9, the US does not plan to contribute any money at a conference in Kuwait next week to fund Iraq’s reconstruction drive after the war against IS forces.

According to critics the move would negatively influence American standing internationally. “We are not planning to announce anything,” an official said regarding financial assistance at the conference. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will attend the meeting. The official, however, said Tillerson could still decide closer to the time to announce a contribution. Washington is encouraging private-sector investment and counting on Iraq’s Gulf neighbours, particularly Sunni regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia, to pour in money as part of a rapprochement with Baghdad meant to reduce Shi‘ite rival Iran’s influence in Iraq.

Latin America

• According to the NY Times on February 2, US Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson arrived in Latin America to reset US relations with the region.

President Trump’s anti-immigrant sentiments and his contempt of trade ties are unnerving US allies in the region. Tillerson began a tour of the region in Mexico assuring his hosts that he was committed to preserving the North American Free Trade Agreement signed by Mexico, the United States and Canada. “I cannot emphasize enough the importance of our economic relationships.” Tillerson said after meeting with the Mexican and Canadian Foreign Ministers, acknowledging that almost three million American jobs depend on trade with neighbouring countries. Tillerson will also travel to Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Jamaica with a broad agenda, including an attempt to create a united front to apply more pressure on President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela to end his authoritarian ways.

Amina Afzal

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

• On February 14, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad denied possession of chemical weapons by Syria and called the use of such arms “immoral and unacceptable.” Mekdad said, “Syria’s government categorically denies possessing chemical weapons.” His comments came following French President Emmanuel Macron issuing a warning against Syria on February 13, 2018. Macron warned that his country would launch strikes if proof emerged that the Syrian regime had used chemical weapons against its civilians. According to media reports, at least six chlorine attacks were conducted during January 2018 in rebel-held Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta, resulting in dozens of injuries. However, Syria has denied carrying out the chemical weapons attack.

• The Hindu reported on February 13 that Russia has demanded over $20 million from the Indian Navy to repair the damage suffered by the ‘Akula’ (Schuka-B)-class nuclear- powered attack submarine (SSN) INS Chakra. The report said that Russia has demanded $20 million for fixing the submarine’s front portion, which was damaged when the submarine was entering the Visakhapatnam harbour. The details of the accident emerged in public in October 2017. Russian officials said the submarine’s damaged sonar dome panels would be replaced at India’s naval base at Vishakhapatnam on the country’s east coast. INS Chakra was formally inducted into the Indian Navy on a 10-year lease from Russia at a cost of around $1 billion in 2012.

• On February 13, Daniel R. Coats, Director of US National Intelligence, warned that Pakistan was developing new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical nuclear weapons, that bring more risks to the region. Claims regarding Pakistan’s growing nuclear weapons are made in an annual report underlining worldwide threat assessment of the American intelligence community. The report, prepared by seventeen US intelligence agencies, was presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee by Daniel Coats. The political bias of the report was evident form the fact that while discussing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development, no mention was made of India’s massive nuclear weapons programme, which would have given a context to the Pakistan nuclear development. The report claimed that Pakistan would continue to threaten US interests by “deploying new nuclear weapons capabilities, maintaining its ties to militants, restricting counterterrorism cooperation, and drawing closer to China.” Regarding Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, the report warned that the country continues to produce nuclear weapons including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles. The report said that the expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities could not only further deteriorate its relations with India but would also introduce new risks for escalation of dynamics and security in the region. Regarding North Korea, the report called the country as the most volatile threat to the US. The report said North Korea has

11 longstanding nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programmes which constitute a major threat to the security of the US, its deployed troops, and its allies.

• On February 12, Russia announced a successful test of its new interceptor missile designed for its A-135 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) system to counter incoming aerial threats.

The Russian Defence Ministry released footage of the test that was conducted at the Sary-Shagan site in Kazakhstan. Colonel Andrey Prikhodko, Deputy Commander of Anti-Missile and Missile Defence Command of Russian Aerospace Forces, said, “We have successfully test fired a new upgraded air defence missile. The missile’s tactical and technical characteristics regarding the range, precision and operational lifetime are significantly higher compared to present-day weapons.” Prikhodko said that the missile is capable of intercepting single and multiple strikes, including new generation ICBMs. However, Russia’s Defence Ministry did not provide further details about the missile. Earlier on February 5, 2018, Russia also deployed its advanced nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to its Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. Vladimir Shamanov, Head of the Defence Committee of Russia’s Lower House of Parliament, said, “Yes, they have been deployed.” However, he did not provide any detail on the number of deployed missiles. The Iskander is a mobile short-range ballistic missile, codenamed SS-26 Stone by NATO. With a range of 500 kilometres, the missile is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads weighing up to 500kg.

In a related development on February 1, 2018, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved the deployment of Russian warplanes at a civilian airport on the disputed island of Iturup as Russia calls it, or Etorofu as it is known in Japan. Iturup is one of the four islands seized by Soviet forces at the end of World War II and is located off the northeastern coast of Japan.

• On February 10, Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on International Affairs, reiterated Iran’s legitimate right to develop ballistic missiles for the country’s defence.

• On February 8, Denis Chaibi, Head of the Iranian taskforce at the European Union’s (EU) external action service, said the EU could put in place regulations to protect its firms doing business in Iran if the US withdraws from Iran’s July 2015 Nuclear Agreement, also known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Senior Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not seek anybody’s permission to develop its missile capabilities and will use missiles in any way and quantity it deems necessary, and this is a legitimate right of Iran.” His comments came on the sidelines of a meeting with foreign guests attending the 40th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution. Regarding US President Donald Trump’s call on European allies to fix the nuclear

12 agreement and link its missile programme with the agreement by the time of its next recertification in May 2018, Velayati said Iran would never negotiate on its missile programme. On February 6, 2018, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also rejected the possibility of holding negotiations on altering the nuclear agreement and Iran’s missile programme. On February 8, 2018, Denis Chaibi indicated that the EU could restore “blocking regulations” to protect its firms doing business with Iran in case the US withdraws from the nuclear agreement. Chaibi said, “We are looking at a number of possibilities. It is not complicated to do it legally in that the legal instrument exists, but it doesn’t require a huge internal debate.” The regulations were adopted in 1996 as a countermeasure when the US had imposed extraterritorial economic sanctions on Cuba. The EU believes that those sanctions only benefited the US at the expense of European interests. US’ extra-territoriality sanctions law, which applies to foreign firms carrying out transactions in US dollars, allowed US authorities to fine firms doing business with sanctioned countries. Moreover, Joffrey Celestin-Urbain, Director of bilateral relations at France’s Finance Ministry, said on February 8, 2018, that France will encourage its firms to do business in Iran despite uncertainty over its nuclear agreement. Celestin-Urbain said, “We are in limbo on the international scene. Nobody knows what will happen after May 2018. This is the uncertainty our French companies are facing and this is something you have to take for granted if you want to do business in Iran.” Similar concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear agreement were also expressed by Britain on February 8, 2018. Alistair Burt, Britain’s Minister for the Middle East, said that the UK and its European partners are clear that they want the nuclear agreement intact. He indicated that Britain was working with its EU partners to mitigate US concerns over the nuclear agreement.

• On February 9, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) declared that its Chengdu J-20 multirole stealth fighter jet was operational. With the commissioning of the J-20 aircraft into the Air Force’s combat service, China became the second country to have developed an operational stealth aircraft after the US. Shen Jinke, spokesman for the PLA Air Force, said, “The stealth jets will improve the air force’s comprehensive fighting ability and enable it to better safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.” The J-20 is China’s medium to long-range jet designed to conduct air- to-air combat and ground attacks. The jet had made its maiden flight in 2011 and was first unveiled at the 11th Air show China in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, in November 2016. Military experts believe that the J-20 fighter jet would alter the balance of air power in the Asia- Pacific region. The induction of the jet has broken the US monopoly of arming stealth jets in the region. With the J-20, China hopes to fill the gap in military power with the US, as the jet is China’s answer to the US’ F-22 Raptor and F-35 stealth fighter jets. Earlier, on January 26, 2018, Japan had deployed its first F-35A stealth fighter, manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp. By April 2019, Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force plans to deploy nine more F-35As to make a squadron of 10 fighter jets.

• On February 7, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state-controlled company responsible for arms trade, said that Russia sold around $15 billion worth of weapons in 2017, Rosoboronexport is an intermediary company in the area of exports and imports of the entire range of military and dual-purpose products, technologies and services. Alexander Mikheev, Chief Executive Officer of Rosoboronexport, mentioned that over 7,500 enterprises of the country’s machine-building industry had contributed significantly to the sale of $15billion weapons to almost 53 countries around the world. He said that considerable progress in technology and production had enabled Russia to maintain its leading position in the global arms market. According to a press release, the geographical scope of Russian supplies of military products expanded due to a number of new customers in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East.

• On February 7, India successfully test-fired its Prithvi-II short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at the Dr Abdul Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Odisha.

• On February 6, India successfully test-fired its Agni-I short-range nuclear capable ballistic missile (SRBM) in the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Odisha. The launch of Agni-I was part of India’s Strategic Forces Command’s (SFC) annual training conducted to test the operational readiness of its missile force. The missile was launched from a transporter erector launcher (TEL). According to the Indian Defence Ministry, the test successfully met all set objectives. Agni-I is a single-state, solid fuel missile, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). With a strike range of 700- 900 kilometres, the missile can alternatively be armed with a 1,000-kilogram conventional or nuclear warhead. The missile was inducted in 2004. On February 7, India’s SFC successfully launched another nuclear-capable SRBM Prithvi-II as part of a user trial. The missile, randomly selected from the Indian Army’s existing stockpile, was launched from a TEL. With a maximum range of 350 kilometres, Prithvi-II is capable of carrying 500-1,000 kilogram warhead. The missile was inducted in 2003.

• Germany’s Intelligence Agency’s Chief revealed on February 6 that North Korea had been acquiring technology for its nuclear weapons programme through its Berlin embassy.

• On February 4, a new United Nations report indicated that North Korea earned nearly $200 million from exporting coal and other banned commodities in 2017 in violation of UN sanctions. Hans-Georg Maassen, Head of Germany’s Security Agency BfV, said “We have noticed that so many procurement activities have taken place from the embassy.” He added, “If we find such

14 things, we stop it, but we cannot guarantee that this can be prevented in all cases.” He also indicated that North Korea acquired technology for its nuclear weapons programme through shadow buyers or shadow markets. Though he did not specify the exact nature of technology, he only mentioned that the acquired technologies were so-called dual-use goods that could be used for both civil and military purposes. However, the German Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it was not aware of any illegal activities at the North Korean Embassy in Berlin. The spokesman from North Korea’s Embassy in Berlin called the report untrue. Maassen’s comments follow the UN report revealing that North Korea earned almost $200 million from exporting banned commodities in 2017. The report has been authored by a panel of experts investigating North Korea. According to the report, North Korea exported coal to China, Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam, in addition to falsifying documents to conceal the origin of the coal.

• China’s Defence Ministry announced on February 6, that China conducted a successful mid-course land-based missile interception test. China’s Defence Ministry said, “China carried out a land-based mid-course missile interception test within its territory and achieved the desired test objective.” It was China’s third successful test of its mid-course land-based missile interception technology. The previous two tests were conducted in January 2010 and January 2013 respectively. The test showed that China is capable of operating mid-course interception technology like the US. According to Yang Chengjun, a Chinese missile expert and defence scientist, three successful mid-course interception tests show that China’s technology has matured. China started research on missile interception in 1964 and expanded it as part of the State-funded 863 Programme.

• On February 5, both the US and Russia announced that they have met their obligation of reducing their deployed strategic nuclear forces under the Treaty on the Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, also known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). February 5, 2018, marks the date that the Treaty’s central limits on each country’s strategic nuclear arsenal take effect. The US Department of State and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation notified through a press release that they had completed their reductions of strategic nuclear arsenal and achieved these limits. The US Department of State said, “Implementation of the New START Treaty enhances the safety and security of the United States and our allies and makes strategic relations between the United States and the Russian Federation more stable, transparent, and predictable.” The US and Russia will exchange data on their respective strategic nuclear arsenals in March 2018. Washington and Moscow signed the New START in 2010. It took effect in February 2011. The Treaty remains in force for 10 years, until 2021, unless it is replaced before this date by a subsequent agreement on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms. It can also be extended for no more than five years to 2026 by mutual consent of both parties. Under article II of the treaty, both the US and Russia are obligated to limit their deployed strategic nuclear

15 warheads and bombs to 1,550, deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine- launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers assigned to nuclear missions to 700. The deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and bombers are limited to 800. The US had completed its reductions in August 2017. As of September 2017, the United States had 1393 deployed strategic warheads, 660 deployed strategic delivery systems, and 800 deployed and nondeployed launchers of ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers. According to a statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry on February 5, 2018, Russia fulfilled the reduction by holding 1,444 deployed strategic warheads, 527 deployed strategic delivery systems, and 779 deployed and nondeployed launchers of ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers.

• On February 2, the Pentagon released its new nuclear weapons policy called the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). The new NPR identifies Russia and China as main strategic adversaries of the US that pose a nuclear threat to the country. The policy claims that both Russia and China have “added new types of nuclear capabilities to their arsenals, increased the salience of nuclear forces in their strategies and plans, and engaged in increasingly aggressive behaviour, including in outer space and cyber space”. The policy also mentioned North Korea as a threat to the US calling it a state pursuing an “illicit pursuit of nuclear weapons and missile capabilities” in direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Regarding Iran, the NPR maintains that it is still “retaining the technological capability and much of the capacity necessary to develop a nuclear weapon within one year of a decision to do so,” despite the country signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with world power to limit its nuclear programme. The new policy commits the US to develop a new batch of nuclear weapons, including new Long- Range Stand-Off (LRSO) cruise missile which would replace the Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM), sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) and a low-yield nuclear warhead for existing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The NPR argued that these tactical nuclear weapons are required to “counter any mistaken perception of an exploitable ‘gap’ in US regional deterrence capabilities.” The US logic is these new weapons would work as a greater deterrent because enemies might think the US might actually use them. According to US officials, the SLCM would reassure US security commitments to Japan and South Korea in the face of growing threats from North Korea. However, the previous Administrations of President George H.W. Bush took the nuclear Tomahawk cruise missile off the submarines in 1991, and President Obama finally retired them in 2011, as they considered SLCMs destabilising for deterrence stability. Besides calling for new weapons, the NPR also expands the conditions under which the US would use nuclear weapons to encompass more non-nuclear attacks, including cyberattacks and attacks on nuclear command and control. The possible US response of nuclear strikes to cyberattacks actually lowers the nuclear strike threshold of the country. However, officials at the Pentagon maintain that the US would use its nuclear weapons only in “extreme circumstances.”

Following the release of the NPR, US President Donald Trump said the new US nuclear policy would make the “use of nuclear weapons less likely” by enhancing “deterrence of strategic attacks against our nation, and our allies and partners”. He also said the policy also “reaffirms our commitment to arms control and nuclear non-proliferation and maintains the moratorium on nuclear testing.” Though the 2018 NPR is a continuation of President Barack Obama’s 2010 NPR, it represents a radical departure from the US’ moral obligation towards nuclear disarmament being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Article 6 of the NPT calls upon its signatory states “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.” Alex Bell, an Obama Administration Official and disarmament advocate at the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, criticised the Pentagon for effectively abandoning the quest for nuclear reductions, saying it is treating the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons that Obama initiated in a 2009 speech in Prague. In response to the US’ NPR, the Russian Foreign Ministry on February 3, 2018, said Russia was very disappointed by the content of the document, which has a confrontational feel and anti- Russian orientation. While denying the accusations made in the NPR against Russia, the Ministry said, “We, of course, will have to take into account the approach enacted now in Washington and to take the needed measures to secure our own safety.” On February 3, 2018, China also criticised the US for its new NPR. Ren Guoqiang, spokesman at China’s Defence Ministry, said China remains firmly opposed to the US’ new policy as it has made “wild guesses” about China’s intentions and exaggerated the threat of its nuclear force. While hoping that the US would abandon its Cold War thinking regarding nuclear weapons, Ren Guoqiang said China “has always kept its own nuclear forces at the minimum level required by national security.” Regarding China’s nuclear policy, he said, “China always abides by the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances” and will “unconditionally not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states.” The new policy also received condemnation from Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that US’ reliance on nuclear weapons is a violation of the NPT, that may bring humankind closer to annihilation. However, the US defended its NPR at the UN on February 6, 2018. Robert Wood, US Ambassador to the UN’s Conference on Disarmament, said, “Today’s security environment is more dynamic, complex, demanding, and threatening than any since the end of the Cold War.” He again accused Russia, China and North Korea of boosting their nuclear stockpiles and “raising the prominence of nuclear weapons in their security strategies.”

• On February 2, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) successfully test-fired a BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and IR (Infrared) missile from JF-17 Thunder aircraft. PAF announced, “It was a landmark occasion for the PAF as well as the whole nation, when the indigenously produced JF-17 Thunder shot down a slow speed target with BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and IR (Infrared) missile with pinpoint accuracy at the Sonmiani firing range,” Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman witnessed the live demonstration. Speaking on the

17 occasion, he said that the successful testing of these sophisticated weapons was a testimony to the JF-17 Thunder’s multirole capabilities. He also said it was a matter of immense pride that six PAF fighter squadrons had already been equipped with JF-17 Thunder aircraft, making it the backbone of the country’s aerial defence.

• On February 1, Turkey successfully test-fired its indigenously developed short-range, low-altitude air defence missile HISAR-A in the Anatolian province of Aksaray. The Turkish Defence Ministry said, “The HİSAR missile project has been successfully continuing under the Defence Industry Under-secretariat (SSM) to address the needs of the Turkish Land Forces Command.” The Ministry indicated that the missile would play a crucial role in Turkey’s air defence. In 2016, Turkey had successfully test-fired medium-range HISAR-O air defence missile. HISAR-A has a range of 15 km with a maximum altitude of 5 km, while the HISAR-O has a range of 25 km and a maximum altitude of 15 km. The HISAR-A missile would be delivered to the country’s armed force in 2020. The HİSAR System’s radar, command and control and fire control systems were developed by Aselsan, while Roketsan was responsible for the development of the missile system. Aselsan and Roketsan are Turkey’s leading defence contractors. The HİSAR systems are capable of targeting and destroying aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and air-to-surface missiles.

• According to the Indian Defence Ministry on February 1, India launched the third diesel- electric attack submarine (SSK), known as Karanj, for the Indian Navy at the naval dockyard in Mumbai on January 31, 2018. Admiral Sunil Lanba, Chief of the Naval Staff, said, “It is one of the most advanced submarines and better than those that the enemy country has.” The Karanj is the third of six planned Scorpene-class (Kalvari-class) submarines built by the Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) shipbuilder under the Project 75 Programme. The first such submarine, INS Kalvari, was commissioned on December 14, 2017, while the second one, Khandari, was launched in January 2018 and is undergoing sea trials. Karanj is expected to be delivered to the Navy after two years. The Scorpene submarines are a primary modernisation requirement of the Indian Navy, which is currently faced with an ageing submarine fleet. Benefiting from the transfer of technology from France’ DCNS collaboration, the MDL is constructing Scorpene class submarines to ensure superior stealth features such as advanced acoustic silencing techniques and low radiated noise levels. The Scorpene submarines can launch an attack with both torpedoes and tube launched anti-ship missiles, whilst underwater or on surface. They can undertake various missions including anti-surface warfare, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence gathering, mine laying and area surveillance. --- Moiz Khan

CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

China • On February 4, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the US of having “Cold War mentality” after Washington published its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) which outlined its plans to expand the country’s nuclear capabilities. The Foreign Ministry called on the US to work together with China and for their armies to become a stabilising factor in Sino-US relations and in the region. • During his visit to Washington on February 8, Chinese State Councillor, Yang Jiechi met US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. The two sides reaffirmed their “commitment to keep up pressure on North Korea’s illegal nuclear weapons and missile programmes” and “discussed the need to achieve a fair and reciprocal bilateral economic relationship”. The US has repeatedly pressurised China to do more to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes. • According to Reuters on February 13, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for military modernisation and technological advances. His remarks came during a meeting with senior Chinese officials. Xi has made the upgrading of China’s Armed Forces a key objective of his policy, investing in a range of new technologies including stealth fighters, aircraft carriers and missiles. • On February 14, Chinese state run The Global Times criticised Britain’s decision to sail its warships through the disputed South China Sea. The criticism came soon after British Defense Secretary, Gavin Williamson said that the UK would send a warship through the South China Sea to assert Britain’s right to freedom of navigation.

North Korea • On February 10, North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong met with South Korean President, Moon Jae-in during her visit to South Korea. The meeting took place after Kim Yo Jong attended the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. She was accompanied by a high level North Korean delegation including North Korea’s ceremonial Head of State, Kim Yong Nam. During her visit, Kim Yo Jong delivered a letter from her brother Kim Jong-un, asking Moon to visit North Korea at the “earliest date possible”. In response, Moon said that both Koreas should try to create necessary conditions to make the visit possible. Moon has previously expressed his willingness to travel to Pyongyang. Following Kim Yo Jong’s return to North Korea on February 11, 2018, Kim Jong-un said he wants to boost the “warm

19 climate of reconciliation and dialogue” with South Korea. Kim Yo Jong, regarded as one of the most trusted aides of Kim Jong-un, generated a widespread global press coverage during her visit. Her meeting with Moon Jae-in was the highest-level contact between the two countries in more than a decade. The inter-Korean talks are a significant development for the prospect of negotiations and follow heightened concerns of the US and its allies over the country’s nuclear programme. However, some remain skeptical that the dialogue could yield any progress on peace talks. Speaking at the Winter Olympic Games, US Vice President Mike Pence said Washington would keep up its “maximum pressure campaign” against Pyongyang, but at the same time would be open to talks without preconditions.

Myanmar • On February 13, Myanmar’s government signed a ceasefire agreement with two ethnic armed groups, New Mon State Party and the Lahu Democratic Union. Myanmar’s State Counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi said the signing of the accord was a step towards peace in Myanmar. The two groups have not engaged in active fighting with the military in recent years. However, observers say it is a positive move for negotiations with other armed groups.

Malaysia • According to Reuters on February 13, Malaysia is seeking to further downgrade its ties with North Korea. The development came one year after North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un’s half-brother, Kim Jong Nam was assassinated at Kuala Lumpur airport on February 13, 2017. US and South Korea accused Pyongyang for orchestrating the murder. According to reports, Malaysia is considering to reduce the staff size of the North Korean mission in Kuala Lumpur. ---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

EUROPE

• On February 15, the US and Britain accused the Russian military of orchestrating a “malicious” cyber-attack on Ukraine that spread globally in 2017.

According to the White House the June 2017 NotPetya ransomware attack caused billions of dollars in damage across Europe, Asia and the Americas. UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson said Russia was “ripping up the rule book” and the UK would respond. Moscow denies being behind the attack, calling such claims “Russophobic.”

• On February 15, EU diplomats removed the so-called “punishment clause” from a draft text of the arrangement for the Brexit transition period.

A footnote published by the European Commission earlier suggested that the UK would lose access to elements of the European single market if it broke EU rules during the transition period. However, officials have now promised new wording that makes reference to the EU’s standard infringement procedures.

• On February 15, Instagram blocked posts in Russia relating to corruption claims made by Alexei Navalny, a prominent opposition leader.

It follows a demand by the country’s Internet censor that the Facebook-owned service restrict access to posts on its platform connected to allegations made by Alexei Navalny. Its response contrasts with that of Google’s YouTube service which had been ordered to block several clips before the end of February 14, 2018. However, it took no such action. The controversy followed a YouTube video posted by Navalny against corruption that allegedly shows the billionaire Oleg Deripaska meeting with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Prikhodko aboard a yacht. The 25-minute upload has been watched more than five million times.

• According to a press release issued by the European Commission on February 15, social media companies need to do more to respond to the requests, made in March 2017 by the European Commission and Member States’ consumer authorities, to comply with EU consumer rules.

Changes made by Facebook, Twitter and Google+ to align their terms of services with EU consumer protection rules have also been published. These changes will benefit more than a quarter of a billion of EU consumers who use social media. EU consumers will not be forced to waive mandatory EU consumer rights, such as their right to withdraw from an on-line purchase; they will be able to lodge their complaints in Europe, rather than in California; and the platforms will take up their fair share of responsibilities towards EU consumers, similarly to the off-line service providers. However, the changes only partially fulfill the requirements under EU consumer law.

• On February 14 British Foreign Secretary Johnson called on his opponents to unite around his vision of Brexit.

He warned that any rethinking of the decision itself would be a “disastrous mistake.” A second vote would bring “another year of wrangling and turmoil and feuding in which the whole country would lose,” he argued. Labour’s Brexit spokesman Sir Keir Starmer said the speech revealed the government’s intention to ignore rights, protections and the benefits of the EU single market. “Nobody will be fooled or reassured by the foreign secretary's empty rhetoric,” he said.

• On February 14, French President Emmanuel Macron threatened to “strike” Syria if proof emerges that its government is using chemical weapons against civilians.

“We will strike the place where these launches are made or where they are organised,” he warned. However, Macron said French intelligence had so far found no evidence that banned chemical weapons had been used. His comments follow numerous reports of suspected chlorine attacks in Syria since the beginning of January 2018.

• On February 14, Germany’s top monetary official, Jens Weidmann, said that virtual currencies such as bitcoin are not good means of payment because their values fluctuate so rapidly.

The value of bitcoin jumped in 2017 from below $1,000 to almost $20,000 in December before falling back to around $9,000 currently. Weidmann, who heads Germany’s national central bank and is a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank, the issuer of the euro, added that virtual currencies are no substitute for conventional money. “For a stable monetary and financial system we need no crypto-tokens, but rather central banks obligated to price stability and effective banking regulation, and we have both in the eurozone,” he said. He said that central banks did not need to issue such currencies themselves, a step which could heighten the risk of bank runs.

• On February 13, Martin Schulz, the head of Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), resigned saying his decision would help renew the SPD and ease preparations for a coalition government with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.

Schulz said he was handing over to a left-winger, Andrea Nahles, with immediate effect. However, SPD members have to vote on the change on April 22, 2018. SPD sources say Hamburg mayor Olaf Scholz would become interim leader. The SPD has agreed on a blueprint for coalition government with Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and her Bavarian CSU allies. SPD members will vote on the coalition deal in March 2018. The result is expected on March 4, 2018.

• On February 11, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for younger members of her

party to fill ministerial positions in the new government.

“We need to ensure that not only the over-60s are considered but also younger people,” she said. She also defended “painful” concessions made to the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) to clinch a coalition deal. The deal followed months of wrangling after an inconclusive election. However, it still needs to be approved by the SPD’s 460,000 members, with the result due in March 2018. On Friday SPD leader Martin Schulz said he would not serve as Foreign Minister in the new government, saying he did not want debate about his role to jeopardise the new coalition. “Now we need to show that we can start with a new team,” Merkel said. The CDU has six ministerial posts to fill.

• European equities finished the February 12 session on an upbeat note as global markets bounced back after posting their worst week in years.

Stocks received a boost after Dow rose 410 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained more than 1 percent. The major indices saw their worst weekly performances since early 2016 last week. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed up 1.17 percent provisionally, off session highs, while all major sectors posted solid gains. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.19 percent by the close, while France’s CAC 40 jumped 1.2 percent and Germany’s DAX 1.45 percent. In peripheral markets, the only major index that fell into the red by the close was the Athens Stock Exchange. On February 5, 2018 the Dow had plunged by nearly 1,200 points or 4.6%, triggering losses in Asia and Europe. Analysts have said for months that the financial markets were due a correction after a long period of rising prices.

• According to the NY Times on February 12, four Russian nationals, and perhaps dozens more, were killed in fighting between pro-government forces in eastern Syria and members of the United States-led coalition fighting the Islamic State.

The attack occurred in the vicinity of Deir al-Zour, a strategic, oil-rich territory that the Syrians want. Most of the fatalities were attributed to an American airstrike on enemy columns that was called in by American-backed Kurdish soldiers who believed they were under attack.

• According to the BBC on February 7, Germany is set to emerge from months of political deadlock after Angela Merkel’s conservatives (CDU/CSU) finally reached a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

Negotiators have agreed on the division of key ministries - one of the last hurdles towards forming a government. It could end more than four months of wrangling since the September 2017 election. However the deal would still need to be approved by SPD members. Many in the party fear that re-entering a coalition with CDU/CSU could damage it in the long term. During a joint news conference Chancellor Merkel said the agreement gave the basis for a “good and stable government.”

• According to a new action plan unveiled by Brussels on February 6, Serbia and Montenegro could join the EU as early as 2025.

The EU enlargement plan for the Western Balkans, presented by the European Commission offers a path to membership for the two Balkan states as well as their neighbours Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia. To join by 2025 both Serbia and Montenegro would have to improve their rule of law and governance, while Serbia would also have to urgently normalise its diplomatic relations with its neighbour Kosovo.

• On February 6, thousands of Greeks took to the streets of Athens in a protest about the decades-long dispute over the name Macedonia.

Police said some 140,000 people joined the rally, but organisers put the turnout closer to 1.5 million people. Many Greeks object to the country of the same name calling itself Macedonia, saying it implies a territorial claim on Greece's northern Macedonia region. Protesters oppose Greek government proposals on resolving the issue.

• On February 3, Italian police arrested a gunman suspected of carrying out a drive-by shooting spree targeting African immigrants.

At least six people were wounded in the town of Macerata. The suspect, Luca Traini, had an Italian flag wrapped around his neck when he was detained. He had taken part in regional elections for the anti-immigration Northern League in 2017. Italy votes in national elections on March 4, 2018 and immigration remains one of the main issues of the vote.

• On February 2, at least five migrants were shot when a fight erupted between Afghans and Eritreans in the French port city of Calais.

An Afghan man is suspected of firing shots at a queue for food handouts. Four Eritreans teenagers are in a critical condition. The “Jungle” camp was dismantled near Calais in 2016. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said the violence had reached a new level and accused gangs that try to smuggle migrants to the UK of instigating the violence. This is the worst outbreak of violence between migrants in Calais for months, and the use of firearms is a worrying escalation of the problem. ---Amina Afzal

MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA Egypt

• On February 12, US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson held talks with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry in Cairo. He also met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. During a joint press conference, Tillerson said the US supports Egypt’s fight against Daesh and it also advocates free and fair elections in the country. He also said that Washington remains committed to achieving lasting peace between Israel and Palestine, despite President Donald Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Tillerson and Shoukry cited productive discussions on regional security and the struggle against Daesh. Tillerson said, “Egypt was an important part of the anti-IS coalition and Washington was committed to strengthening this partnership in the years to come. We agreed that we would continue our close cooperation on counterterrorism measures, including our joint commitment to the defeat of IS.” Shoukry said, “We highly value this relationship and we thank the US for what it presents to Egypt in terms of support, which benefits both countries.” He also said that Cairo is hopeful about further cooperation. According to a statement from Sisi’s office, during his meeting with Tillerson, he “underscored the robust strategic relations between Egypt and the US” urging further American engagement in the country. The statement said, “The President noted that Egypt looks forward to forging closer economic cooperation with the US and to increasing American investments in Egypt.” Egypt is undertaking a major military operation in Sinai, where extremists have been leading an insurgency for years, and in remote areas of the mainland where militants have attacked security forces and civilians.

• According to a February 3 report in the New York Times, Egypt allowed Israeli jets, drones and helicopters to carry out covert strikes inside Egyptian territory against militants. The report revealed that for more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones, helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign, conducting more than 100 air strikes inside Egypt, with the approval of President Abdel Fattah el Sisi. The report stated, “The remarkable cooperation marks a new stage in the evolution of their singularly fraught relationship. Once enemies, Egypt and Israel are now secret allies in a covert war against a common foe.” According to US officials, President Sisi kept the Israeli airstrikes hidden from all but a limited circle of military and intelligence officers. The report further stated, “Both neighbours have sought to conceal Israel’s role in the air strikes for fear of a backlash inside Egypt, where government officials and the state-controlled media continue to discuss Israel as a nemesis and pledge fidelity to the Palestinian cause. The Israeli drones are unmarked, and the Israeli jets and helicopters cover up their markings.” In Israel, military censors restrict public reports of the air strikes. The Egyptian government has declared the North Sinai a closed military zone, barring journalists from gathering information there. It is unclear if any Israeli troops or special forces are present inside

Egyptian borders, which would increase the risk of exposure. According to the report, the Israeli intervention has helped the Egyptian military regain it’s footing in its battle against the militants. For Israel, the strikes have bolstered the security of its borders and the stability of its neighbour. “Their collaboration in the North Sinai is the most dramatic evidence yet of a quiet reconfiguration of the politics of the region. Shared enemies including Daesh, Iran and political Islam have quietly brought the leaders of several Arab states into growing alignment with Israel even as their officials and news media continue to vilify the Jewish state in public.” The report said that Israel’s air campaign has played a decisive role in enabling the Egyptian Armed Forces to gain an upper hand against the militants. However, the Israeli role is having some unexpected consequences for the region, including on Middle East peace negotiations, in part by convincing senior Israeli officials that Egypt is now dependent on them even to control its own territory.

Iraq

• The Iraqi government announced on February 5 that the US has started to reduce the number of its troops in Iraq following Baghdad’s declaration of victory over Daesh in 2017. According to Western contractors in the country, many US soldiers, along with weapons and equipment, are being transported from Iraq to Afghanistan on daily flights. According to coalition spokesman, Ryan Dillon, continued coalition presence in Iraq would be conditions- based, proportional to the need and in coordination with the government of Iraq. According to Iraqi officials, 60 % of all US troops still in Iraq would be withdrawn, as per the initial agreement reached with Washington. The plan would leave about 4,000 US troops to continue training the Iraqi military. According to observers, the move comes about three months ahead of Iraqi national elections and marks a shift in priorities for the US following the collapse of the extremists’ so-called caliphate.

Israel

• On February 10, a Syrian anti-aircraft missile downed an Israeli F-16 which was returning from a bombing raid on Iran-backed positions in Syria. According to the Israeli Military, an Israeli Apache helicopter shot down an Iranian drone over the northern town of Beit Shean. The drone had been sighted taking off from a base in Syria, and was intercepted after it crossed into Israeli territory. At least 8 Israeli planes were despatched in response to what Israel said was an Iranian drone’s incursion into its airspace. Israeli planes then struck an Iranian installation in Syria from which the unmanned aircraft had been operated. According to an Israeli official, one of the planes was hit by a Syrian anti-aircraft

26 missile and crashed in northern Israel. Israel then launched a second and more intensive air raid, hitting 12 Iranian and Syrian targets in Syria, including Syrian air defence systems. According to Hezbollah, the downing of the plane marked the ‘start of a new strategic phase’ which would limit Israel’s ability to enter Syrian airspace. Iran’s involvement in the Syrian civil war in support of President Bashar al-Assad and the deployment of Iran-backed forces near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has alarmed Israel, which has said it would counter any threat. Both Israel and Syria signalled they were not seeking wider conflict, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to military headquarters in Tel Aviv and the pro-Assad alliance pledged a strong response to any Israeli ‘terrorist action’. Russia expressed its concern and urged both sides to exercise restraint and avoid escalation. Syrian Assistant Foreign Minister, Ayman Sussan warned Israel of more surprises. He said, “Have full confidence the aggressor will be greatly surprised, because it thought this war of attrition had made it incapable of confronting attacks.”

Jordan

• On February 9, King Abdullah of Jordan held talks with visiting Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Jordan’s Acting Prime Minister, Mamdouh Abbadi also attended the meeting. Royal Hashemite Court Chief Fayez Tarawneh, Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Director of the Office of His Majesty Jafar Hassan, India’s Ambassador to Jordan Shubhdarshini Tripathi and the accompanying Indian delegation also attended the meeting. According to a Royal Court statement, King Abdullah’s discussions with Modi covered the “strong ties between Jordan and India, and means to bolster cooperation in various areas”. The meeting also addressed developments related to the Palestinian cause, and Jordan’s role in safeguarding Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, in line with the Hashemite Custodianship. The talks also touched on coordination and consultations between the two countries over issues of mutual concern. King Abdullah affirmed India’s important role in enhancing security and stability, and combating extremism.

Kuwait

• During a ministerial meeting of the US-led military coalition on February 13, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged US allies to stay focused on fighting Daesh. Addressing the opening session of the meeting, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister, Sabah al-Khalid al- Hamad al-Sabah said the collapse of Daesh reflects the commitment of the coalition member- states to fight terrorism. He said, “The international community still faces a direct threat by armed groups, which requires opening up new prospects in the international coalition.” The US

27 urged members of the coalition fighting Daesh to help rebuild Iraq or risk a reversal of the gains made against the group. Tillerson said that the international coalition has dismantled Daesh from nearly 98 % of Syrian and Iraqi territories it had seized. He said, “The end of major combat operations does not mean we have achieved the enduring defeat of ISIS. ISIS remains a serious threat to the stability of the region, our homelands and other parts of the globe.” Tillerson said the fight against Daesh was far from complete and announced $200 million in US aid to stabilise war-torn communities in Syria so that residents could return home. NATO Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg said the Alliance was ready to answer the US call for it to expand its small training mission in Iraq to support reconstruction. Tillerson also said that Turkey’s military offensive in northern Syria had ‘detracted’ from the anti-Daesh battle. He appealed to coalition members not to lose sight of their ultimate goal in Iraq and Syria at a critical moment with the mission shifting from offensive military operations to stabilisation. Tillerson said, “We remain concerned over recent events in north-west Syria and call on all parties to remain focused on defeating ISIS. We will continue to be completely transparent with Turkey about our efforts in Syria to defeat ISIS.” He also said the US would maintain an “ISIS- focused military presence in Syria and continue to train local security forces.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticised the US for proposing to send $550 million dollars in new assistance to Syrian opposition forces. Most of it would go to Syrian Kurds, allied with the US to defeat Daesh. In a related development on February 13, 2018, during a meeting of coalition Defence Ministers in Rome, US Defence Secretary James Mattis rejected a claim by Turkish officials that the US is leaving pockets of Daesh militants in Syria to prolong the war. He said the large number of US- backed forces and rising militant casualties are proof that such claims are not true.

• On February 14, the Kuwait International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq (KICRI) concluded in Bayan. US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson attended the conference and urged governments and investors to help rebuild the country. Donors pledged $30 billion for reconstruction of Iraq. KICRI focussed on the reconstruction of Iraq and other vital issues in the aftermath of the war. The conference brought together several economic powers and regional and international organisations to discuss contributions needed to rebuild Iraq. The meeting was co-chaired by Kuwait, Iraq, the UN, the EU and the World Bank. Authorities estimate Iraq needs $88.2 billion to restore the country. The Director General of Iraq’s Planning Ministry, Qusay Adulfattah told the conference that $23 billion would be needed in the short term and more than $65 billion in the medium term. Planning Minister, Salman al-Jumaili said, “Rebuilding Iraq is restoring hope to Iraq, and restoring the stability of Iraq is stabilising the states of the region and the world.” According to the Planning Ministry, the seven provinces attacked by the militants suffered $46 billion in direct damage, including the destruction of 147,000 housing units, and the security forces took $14 billion in losses. Billions more were lost indirectly due to damage to the wider economy and no growth for years. Iraq has published a list of 157 projects for which it is seeking

28 investment. They include rebuilding destroyed facilities such as Mosul airport and new investments to diversify the economy away from crude oil sales, developing transport, agriculture and oil-related industry including petrochemicals and refining. Rebuilding homes, hospitals, schools, roads, businesses and telecommunications would be key to providing jobs for the young, ending the displacement of thousands of people and putting an end to decades of political and sectarian violence. According to Mahdi al-Alaq, Secretary General of Iraq’s Council of Ministers, Nations could help by acting as guarantors with lenders, allowing Iraq to take out soft loans to fund infrastructure projects. The US said it would extend to Baghdad a $3bn credit line through the Export-Import Bank. According to Tillerson, the money is to ‘generate interest’ for business investment in post-war Iraq. Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif also attended the conference and said Iran would “stand by the Iraqi people forever”. He said, “At a time when only a few countries were participating in the reconstruction of Iraq, Iranian companies were active in building roads in the country and providing Iraqis with engineering services. UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, Lise Grande said failure to help Iraq could lead to renewed instability. She said, “If the international community doesn’t help the government of Iraq to stabilise these areas the gains against Daesh could be at risk.” At the end of the conference, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister, Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled Al-Sabah said, “The commitment of the international community at the conference was clear.” He said that 76 countries, numerous international funds and global organisations and hundreds of investors pledged around $30 billion for Iraq. Top contributors included Britain and Turkey.

Oman

• On February 11, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Oman and met with Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said. Modi also met with Deputy Prime Minister for the Council of Ministers, Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud Al Said and Deputy Prime Minister for International Relations and Cooperation Affairs, Sayyid Asa’ad bin Tariq Al Said. Modi led delegation-level talks with Sultan Qaboos and discussed multiple issues. During their talks, Sultan Qaboos appreciated the contribution of “honest and hardworking” Indian nationals in the development of Oman. Following their talks, the two countries signed eight agreements, including on cooperation in the field of defence, health and tourism. The agreements included an MoU on legal and judicial cooperation in civil and commercial matters. They also signed an agreement on mutual visa exemption for holders of diplomatic, special, service and official passports and an MoU on cooperation in the field of health, tourism and peaceful uses of outer space. The two countries also signed an agreement on cooperation between Foreign Service Institute, Ministry of External Affairs, India and Oman’s Diplomatic Institute. An MoU on academic and scholarly cooperation between National Defence College, Sultanate of Oman and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, India. The two sides also signed an annexure to the MoU on military cooperation. The joint statement issued at

29 the end of Modi’s visit reflected growing maritime cooperation. It stated, “The two sides agreed to enhance cooperation to strengthen maritime security in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean regions, vital for the security and prosperity of both countries.” According to analysts, Oman is strategically located mid-way between India’s western coast and Africa’s eastern coast and has been an old maritime power in the region whose reach stretched from modern-day Pakistan to the eastern part of Africa. India aims at partnership with Oman as well as France for its strategic outreach in the western part of the Indian Ocean Region.

Palestine

• On February 12, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow. President Abbas told Putin that that his country would no longer accept Washington as mediator in the conflict with Israel. He said, “We state that from now on we refuse to cooperate in any form with the US in its status of a mediator, as we stand against its actions.” He added that his country wanted an expanded new mediation mechanism to substitute the Middle East Quartet which comprises the UN, the US, Russia, and the EU.

• On February 10, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi visited the occupied West Bank and held talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Palestine. During their talks, Modi pledged India’s commitment to the Palestinian people’s interests. Abbas told Modi that he is counting on New Delhi’s support for a multi-country sponsorship of any future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Abbas described India as “an international force of great prestige and weight,” which could “contribute to the achievement of a just peace in our region.” Following their meeting, Abbas said he remains committed to negotiations with Israel as the path toward Palestinian independence. No meaningful talks on Palestinian statehood through a partition deal have been held for almost a decade. He said, “We never have and never will reject negotiations. We consider a multilateral mechanism that emerges from an international peace conference as the ideal way to sponsor the negotiations. Here we count on India, with its status as a great power, its historical role in the non-aligned movement and in international forums … to achieve a just peace.” President Abbas also conferred the ‘Grand Collar of the State of Palestine’ on Prime Minister Modi, recognising his key contribution to promote ties between India and Palestine. The Grand Collar is the Highest order given to foreign dignitaries – Kings, Heads of State/Government and persons of similar rank. Following their meeting, Modi said, “I have once again assured President Abbas that India is bound by a promise to take care of the Palestinian people’s interests.” According to experts, a multilateral framework would ostensibly replace Washington’s long-standing monopoly as a mediator. Modi’s visit to the West Bank was seen, in part, as an attempt to compensate the Palestinians after he hosted Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu for six days in January 2018. Israel staunchly opposes any international framework for negotiations, arguing that only the US can be a fair broker. However, the Palestinians have criticised Trump’s shift on Jerusalem and President Abbas rejected the US’ role as a mediator.

Saudi Arabia

• During a telephonic conversation on February 14, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed developments in the Middle East, including the situation in Syria as well as tensions with Qatar. The leaders exchanged views over Syria and discussed the results of the Syrian National Congress in Sochi. Russia, Iran and Turkey have been organising peace talks for Syria in Astana since January 2017. The three countries have been acting as guarantor states for the peace process in the country. Russia also convened a parallel meeting, the Syrian Congress of National Dialogue, in Sochi. On January 30, 2018, Participants of the Sochi conference adopted a 12- point statement outlining the Syrians’ view on their country’s future. According to the final document, Syria should preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its future could be determined only by the people of Syria through elections. Putin and Salman also discussed the ongoing tensions between Qatar and other regional countries.

• On February 5, Saudi air defences intercepted a ballistic missile fired at the Kingdom by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The attack was launched from Yemen’s northern governorate of Saada which is a Houthi stronghold. According to Col. Turki al-Maliki, Spokesman for the Saudi-led military coalition supporting the government in Yemen, the missile was headed toward the city of Khamis Mushait about 160 kilometres north of the border. Following an earlier attack in November 2017, Riyadh had warned that ‘Iranian-manufactured ballistic weapons’ threatened the Kingdom’s security. Maliki has accused the Houthis of ‘repeatedly targeting densely populated cities’ and Iran of delivering the weapons to the insurgents. The Coalition has been blacklisted by the UN for the killing and maiming of children in air raids on Yemen. The US has also accused Iran of being at the origin of the ballistic missiles. Iran, however, denies this charge. According to Russia, the evidence presented by the US was inconclusive, signalling it would oppose an attempt to impose UN sanctions on Tehran.

Syria

• In a statement to the UN Security Council on February 15, Syria’s Ambassador to the UN, Bashar Jaafari said the prime objective of the US-led military coalition in Syria is supporting terrorists operating in the country. Jaafari cited the February 8, 2018 “illegitimate attack” on pro-government forces fighting Daesh in eastern Deir ez-Zor Province as a proof. He said that the US presence in Syria violates the UNSC resolutions and the UN Charter. He also accused the US, France and Britain of having “made every effort to undermine Syria and its people and exploit the media to reach this end, distort the reality of what is happening and mislead the public opinion regarding the humanitarian suffering of civilians due to the practices of armed terrorist groups.” Jaafari stated, “The US decision on military intervention in Syria was illegitimate and unilateral under the pretext of fighting Daesh, then Washington declared that it wants to establish military bases to preserve the strategic security and the security of its allies and later on it made clear that they are in Syria to create armed militias which will control oil, gas and water resources and establish a mini-state.”

• On February 8, US officials announced that two Britons fighting for Daesh in Syria and facing charges of playing a role in the torture and killings of Western hostages were captured by Syrian Kurdish fighters in January 2018. The New York Times reported their capture for the first time. They were identified as Alexanda Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh. They were the last of a group of four militants known as the ‘Beatles’. According to US officials, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had captured the two in eastern Syria in early January 2018. Colonel John Thomas, Spokesman for US Central Command, said US forces had assisted in identifying the militants and were interrogating them. He said, “We are looking to exploit real-time intelligence. But so far nothing of a grand nature has been obtained.” According to the US Department of State, Kotey had also acted as a recruiter and was responsible for recruiting several British nationals to join Daesh.

• On February 8, the US-led coalition killed at least 100 pro-regime fighters to fend off an attack on its allies in eastern Syria. The initial attack was carried out by forces loyal to President Bashar al Assad on key oil and gas installations in parts of Deir ez-Zor province controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces. According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), Coalition advisers were present in the area that was attacked by pro-government forces. The Coalition conducted strikes against attacking forces to repel the act of aggression against its own personnel and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). According to US military officials, more than 100 Syrian pro- regime forces were killed while engaging SDF and coalition forces. According to Rami Abdel Rahman, Head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the aim of the attack appeared to be the capture of a key oil field and a major gas plant in an SDF-held area. Damascus and the US-

32 backed Kurdish militia once worked towards the same goal in the region but they were never allied, and the collapse of Daesh has further strained their relationship.

• On February 9, air strikes continued for a fifth day on the Syrian rebel enclave of Eastern Ghouta. At least 240 civilians have been killed so far during the government-led bombing campaign. Earlier, on February 7, 2018, at least 32 civilians were killed in government strikes in a rebel- held enclave near Damascus. On February 6, 2018, at least 80 civilians, including 19 children and 20 women were killed in air strikes in Eastern Ghouta region. According to Rami Abdel Rahman, Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, it was the highest civilian toll in Syria during a period of 9 months. On February 6, 2018, the UN called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Syria of at least a month to allow aid to be delivered and the sick and wounded brought out for treatment. However, world powers failed to back the UN appeal for ceasefire with Moscow dismissing it as “not realistic”. Russia says the rebels in Eastern Ghouta are “terrorists”, and has previously backed Syrian government offensives against them. Eastern Ghouta is home to an estimated 400,000 people who have lived under crippling government siege since 2013. More than 4,000 families live in basements and bunkers for fear of air strikes. The city is ostensibly included in a “de-escalation” deal reached in 2017 in an attempt to reduce the bloodshed.

Turkey

• According to Anadolu News Agency on February 13, during a telephonic conversation with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed his country’s latest military operations in Syria. Erdogan told Salman that Turkey’s ongoing Operation Olive Branch in Syria’s Afrin province would permit citizens, who were forced to flee, to return home. The two leaders also stressed the importance of Syria’s territorial integrity and the significance of a political solution to the conflict in Syria. They also reaffirmed their mutual determination to increase bilateral relations. Turkey has been waging Operation Olive Branch against Syria’s Afrin region since January 20, 2018 in an attempt to eliminate the US-backed Kurdish forces from the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara views as a terror organisation and the Syrian branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Damascus has not authorised the operation being carried out by Turkey.

• On February 12, Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu criticised the US claiming that its forces in Syria are intentionally stalling the fight against Daesh as an excuse not to cut ties with Syrian Kurdish militiamen.

Speaking to reporters, Cavusoglu said that US forces are leaving pockets with Daesh militants intact to justify continued cooperation with the Kurdish militia. He said Turkey’s ties with the US are at a make-or-break stage and that Washington needs to take ‘concrete steps’ to regain Turkey’s trust. He said, “Our relations are at a very critical stage. Either we will improve ties or these ties will totally break down.” Ankara is angry about Washington’s support for the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units or YPG, which remained the top US ally during its fight against Daesh. Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist group linked to Kurdish insurgents fighting inside Turkey’s own territory.

UAE

• On February 10, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited UAE and held talks with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi. According to officials, Modi is the first world leader to be hosted in the new Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi. The leaders discussed bilateral ties and reviewed the progress made in implementing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement signed during the visit of the Crown Prince Shaikh Mohammed Bin Zayed to India in January 2017. The various topics of discussion included strategic partnership for the future, combating extremism and countering terrorism, security, defence and space cooperation, international and regional cooperation, trade, investment and civil aviation cooperation. Both leaders noted the excellent trade and economic ties between the two countries, as each other’s major trading partners and expressed satisfaction at the current level of bilateral trade, amounting to about $53 billion during 2016- 17. The two sides agreed to further strengthen these ties, particularly through diversifying non- oil trade. Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed welcomed India’s decision to participate in Dubai Expo 2020, while Modi reiterated the interest of Indian companies to be a partner in infrastructure projects being undertaken by the UAE. Both leaders reviewed the progress in realising the $75 billion target for UAE investments in India committed towards infrastructure development. The two leaders complimented the work of the ministerial-level UAE-India High Level Task Force on Investments in promoting bilateral investment ties between the two countries. They noted the positive outcome of its fifth meeting held in January 2018 in Abu Dhabi, and urged the Task Force to explore investment opportunities in both countries. The two leaders expressed satisfaction at the cooperation in energy sector, noting that the UAE is one of the leading suppliers of crude oil to India. Prime Minister Modi thanked the UAE for being a reliable partner in India’s energy security. Both leaders reiterated their common desire to build a deeper partnership with continued focus on investment and joint ventures in petrochemical complexes, and cooperation in joint exploration in India, UAE and in third countries. Prime Minister Modi

34 invited Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Mubadala Investment Company UAE to invest in downstream projects in India’s hydrocarbon sector also. On culture, education and tourism the two sides welcomed Indian participation as the “Guest of Honour Country” at the Abu Dhabi Music and Art Foundation Festival in March 2018 and Sharjah’s participation as the Guest of Honour at the New Delhi World Book Fair 2019. The leaders also said they looked forward to intensifying exchanges between scholars, academics and cultural delegations. The two leaders discussed the importance of sharing each other’s experience in the field of development and aid. In line with this, they agreed to initiate joint development projects in Afghanistan. The two countries signed a number of agreements including on manpower, cooperation in railways, cooperation in inland waterways, and a deal between Bombay Stock Exchange and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange. Besides his official engagements in Abu Dhabi, Prime Minister Modi delivered his keynote address on the theme, “Technology for Development” at the sixth World Government Summit in Dubai, where India was invited as the Guest of Honour. On the sidelines of the Summit, Prime Minister Modi also met with a group of senior GCC CEOs and Business Leaders. Narendra Modi also gave the inaugural address at the Summit.

Yemen

• On February 1, Saudi and Emirati envoys shuttled between Yemeni government forces and besieging separatists in Aden in an attempt to end the standoff following days of infighting. The January 2018 assault on the government’s headquarters by its former allies has opened up a new front in the civil war. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the two major contributors to a military coalition that has backed President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi since he fled into exile in 2015. They have struggled to keep together the disparate alliance supporting him against Houthi rebels who control Sanaa and much of the north. The envoys met with all concerned parties, stressing the need to abide by the ceasefire and refocus efforts on the front lines against the Houthis. According to Major General Mohammed bin Saeed al-Mughaidi of Saudi Arabia, the situation in Aden is stable and all parties have complied completely with the communique issued by the Arab coalition. UAE Major General Mohammed Matar al-Khyeli said, “The Kingdom and the UAE have a common goal and the same vision and have no ambitions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand together with the Yemeni people and are leading reconciliation efforts between the Yemeni parties.” The UAE has close ties to separatist Hani bin Breik, a leader of the Southern Transitional Council to which many of the forces in Aden are loyal. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have urged Hadi’s government to heed the separatists’ grievances and called on all sides to show restraint. ---Muhammad Shoaib

SOUTH ASIA: I Pakistan External • Citing Miftah Ismail, Adviser to the Pakistani PM on Finance, Reuters reported on February 13, that the US has put forward a motion to place Pakistan on a global terrorist- financing watch list. A meeting of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) member states is scheduled to take place on February 18-23, 2018, in Paris, where the organisation may adopt the motion against Pakistan. The reports said that the US and UK had put forward the motion and later convinced France and Germany to co-sponsor it. Ismail said, “We are now working with the US, UK, Germany and France for the nomination to be withdrawn.” He also claimed that the US had put forward the motion on India’s demand. The motion focuses on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Chief, Hafiz Saeed whom India accuses of the 2008 Mumbai attacks. However, the US Embassy in Islamabad denied that it is acting on India’s request. Earlier on February 12, 2018, the Pakistani government amended its Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997 and issued the amended Anti-Terrorism Ordinance 2018. The amended anti-terrorism law would authorise the government to blacklist charities linked to (LeT), Chief, Hafiz Saeed. The UNSC has banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and the Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation (FIF), two charities being run by Saeed for being “terrorist fronts” for the LeT. • Addressing the Chiefs of Defence Conference in Kabul on February 13, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa said that Pakistan has eliminated all militant sanctuaries from its territory. He also said, “Residual signatures of terrorists are also being traced and targeted through ongoing operation Raddul Fasaad.” The top US Commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson and Commander US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Joseph Votel also attended the conference. General Bajwa’s remarks come at a time when the US is pressurising Pakistan to act against the Haqqani network. • On February 12, the Trump Administration asked Congress to approve $336 million in civil and military aid to Pakistan for the fiscal year 2019, beginning in October 2019. The Trump Administration had proposed $256 million in civilian assistance and $80 million in military aid to Pakistan. However, it has linked the military assistance to Islamabad’s actions against alleged terror safe havens on its soil. The Trump Administration has argued that the proposed military assistance would help defeat Al Qaeda and Daesh. In January 2018, Washington suspended security assistance to Pakistan and accused the country of providing safe havens to Taliban and the Haqqani network. Earlier, on February 6, 2018, Deputy Secretary of State, John Sullivan told the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that “there hasn’t been a sufficient amount of action” from Pakistan against terrorists for the US to consider lifting the suspension of security assistance. On the same day, Congressmen Mark Sanford from South Carolina and Thomas Massie from Kentucky introduced a bill in the US House of

Representatives seeking to end US economic aid to Pakistan alleging that Pakistan is “providing military aid and intelligence” to terrorists. They called for redirecting these funds for building US infrastructure. In a separate development on February 13, 2018, US Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats told a hearing of the Senate Intelligence Committee that despite Washington’s requests, Pakistan is holding back on cooperation with the US, failing to take tougher action against militant groups. Instead, he said, it’s only trying to appear tougher. He also presented a report to the Senate Intelligence Committee which cited seventeen US intelligence agencies as claiming that US is losing influence over Pakistan. The report also said that Pakistan would become a threat to Washington’s interests in the South Asian region. • On February 10, Pakistan and Afghanistan concluded two days of talks under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS) in Islamabad. Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister, Hekmat Khalil Karzai led their respective delegations comprising senior civilian and military officials. However, no progress was made during the talks. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the two sides held “good” discussions, adding, however, that “further work was required”. Meanwhile, an Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the discussions made no headway on “specific, results-oriented, time-bound measures in the APAPPS, particularly in the areas of counter terrorism.” This was the second round of APAPPS, which is a joint action plan for cooperation in the key areas of counter-terrorism and reduction of violence, peace and reconciliation, refugees’ repatriation and joint economic development. The first round was held on February 3, 2018 after Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua visited Kabul. The high level discussions between the two sides follow a series of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan. The Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of supporting the militants behind the latest attack while President Ashraf Ghani termed Pakistan “the headquarters of the Taliban”. The accusations have further fuelled anti-Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan. However, on February 2, 2018, a National Security Committee (NSC) meeting chaired by Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi observed that the reaction of the Afghan government was based on “misconceptions created by certain foreign elements.” Pakistan maintains that the Taliban do not need any outside support to attack the country since they hold 40 % of Afghan territory. According to a January 2018, BBC report Taliban fighters are now openly active in 70% of Afghanistan. • On February 8, a US drone strike targeted a compound in North Waziristan Agency killing three suspected militants. The drone attacks in Pakistan continue despite the country’s repeated warnings to the US that unilateral actions could prove detrimental to “the cooperation between the two countries in the fight against terrorism.” Earlier in January 2018, Pakistan had conveyed its serious concerns to the US following a drone strike targeting an Afghan refugee camp in Kurram Agency. • On February 8, Jordan’s King Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussein visited Islamabad and held “delegation level talks” with Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. The two sides agreed to enhance bilateral trade and investment relations and signed an agreement in the field of Civil Protection and Civil Defence. Meanwhile, PM Abbasi expressed

Pakistan’s unequivocal support for the just cause of Palestine and reiterated Pakistan’s rejection of the US decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. • On February 7, the US Department of Treasury designated three Pakistani nationals as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) for providing operational and financial assistance to “terrorists or acts of terrorism.” The list includes Rahman Zeb Faqir Muhammad, Hizb Ullah Astam Khan, and Dilawar Khan Nadir Khan. The accused individuals have alleged ties with Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Taliban. • On February 7, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa chaired a Corps Commanders Conference at General Headquarter (GHQ) in Rawalpindi. The meeting reviewed the “geo-strategic and security environment” in the context of US policy towards the region. The military’s top leadership resolved that country’s “national interest would be kept at premium while cooperating with all other stakeholders for regional peace and stability.” Tensions between Islamabad and Washington have intensified due to their differences over Afghanistan’s war strategy. Earlier in January 2018, the White House statement said that the new South Asia Strategy provides commanders an authority to eliminate militant safe havens in Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, US Joint Staff Director Marine Corps, Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie said the US military does not “contemplate military operations inside Pakistan.” • Citing a Pakistani official, Dawn reported on February 6 that convicted Indian spy, Kulbhushan Jadhav is now undergoing trial on charges of terrorism and sabotage. The report noted that the case against Jhadav regarding espionage had been concluded. The report also said that Pakistan has sought repeated access to 13 Indian officials to seek information in the Jadhav case but India has remained uncooperative. India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and a former RAW chief were among the officials whom Pakistan has sought access to. Jadhav had been apprehended by Pakistani Security Forces in March 2016, in Balochistan. Pakistan’s Military Court sentenced him to death after he was found guilty of espionage. India, however, has maintained that Jadhav was kidnapped from Iran where he had business interests after retiring from the Indian Navy. In a related development on February 16, 2018, Frontline, an Indian news Magazine published a report titled “India’s Secret War” claiming that India has “secretly built up a covert action programme against Pakistan since 2013.” It stated that India should also consider the “long-term consequences” of its expanding covert actions. India’s Ministry of External Affairs rejected the report. • On February 1, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa visited Riyadh and met with Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz. The two sides discussed bilateral military relations and stressed the importance of close ties between the two countries. General Bajwa also held talks with the Commander of Ground Forces Lt. General, Prince Fahd bin Turki bin Abdul Aziz. Pakistan’s Army provided no further details regarding the Chief’s visit.

Pakistan Internal • On February 11, at least 5 Indian soldiers and a civilian were killed following a two-day gun battle between an alleged member of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Indian troops at the Sunjwan military base in Jammu in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). Indian Army Chief, Bipin Rawat, visited Jammu to review the operation. He also held meetings with his commanders. Meanwhile, Indian Defence Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman accused Pakistan for the attack saying, “these terrorists were controlled by their handlers from across the border”. She said JeM Chief, Masood Azhar was the mastermind of the attack, adding however, that the attackers possibly had local support as well. She also accused Pakistan of resorting to ceasefire violations at the LoC to assist infiltration and said that Pakistan would “pay for this misadventure”. In response, Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khurram Dastgir warned that any aggression from New Delhi would not go “unpunished” and would be met with an “equal and proportionate response”. He also told the Senate on February 14, 2018, that the hostile, anti-Pakistan stance by the Indian government has “drastically reduced the space for any advocacy of peace”. • On February 12, 2018, IOK Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti called for talks with Pakistan saying “there is no alternative”.

• On February 5, Pakistan’s Foreign Office summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner, J.P. Singh and condemned the unprovoked ceasefire violations by Indian troops along the Line of Control (LoC) on February 4, 2018 in Nezapir, Nikial and Karela Sectors, resulting in the deaths of two civilians. According to the Foreign Office the Indian forces have carried out more than 190 ceasefire violations along the LoC and the Working Boundary in 2018 so far, resulting in 13 civilian deaths and injured another 65. In a related development, four Indian soldiers, including a Captain, were killed in clashes between Indian and Pakistani troops along the LoC. • On February 5, Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi reiterated full support to “the just and legitimate right of the Kashmiri people for the peaceful resolution of the issue in line with their aspirations.” The Prime Minister was addressing a joint session of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly and Kashmir Council on Kashmir Solidarity Day. • On February 3, at least 11 soldiers, including a Captain of the Pakistan Army were killed after a suicide bomber blew himself up at the sports area of an army unit’s in Swat. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed the attack. The incident follows the terrorist attacks in Kabul and Jalalabad that killed more than 150 people.

India • On February 13, the Maldives’ Defence Ministry said that calls from opposition for Indian military intervention in Maldives to oust President Abdullah Yameen was “a threat to the nation’s independence and national security”. The Defence Ministry called on all parties to “refrain from such calls” insisting that the “Government would not give any opportunity to anyone to threaten the country’s sovereignty.” The Maldives Defence Ministry’s statement came after the exiled Former President Mohamed Nasheed asked India to intervene militarily to resolve the on-going political turmoil in the country. Meanwhile, China’s state run Global Times warned that Beijing would counter any Indian intervention. Maldives has been facing political turmoil after its Supreme Court ordered the release of nine high-profile political prisoners, maintaining that their trials were “politically motivated and flawed”. Following the court’s order, President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of political emergency in the country and arrested the judges who gave the ruling. • During his visit to the occupied West Bank on February 10, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi met with Palestinian President, Mahmud Abbas expressing support for an “independent Palestinian state living in an environment of peace”. The two sides signed six agreements worth around $50 million that included the setting up of a hospital and three schools in the Occupied West Bank. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on India to support a multi-country sponsorship of future Israeli- Palestinian negotiations. Narendra Modi is the first Indian Prime Minister to make an official visit to Palestine. India supports a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. In December 2017, India also backed a UN resolution that opposed the US decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. However, experts say that despite India’s desire for an independent relationship with Israel and Palestine, it is more inclined toward Israel as India remains Israel’s biggest arms market, thought to be worth about $1 billion annually. India also wants Israeli defence firms to invest more in India. Modi’s Palestine visit was part of a four- nation Middle East tour. Before visiting Palestine, the Indian PM visited Jordon where he met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II on February 9, 2018. Modi also visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 11, 2018, where he addressed the World Government Summit in Dubai. During his address, PM Modi warned against the misuse of cyberspace, asserting that technology should be harnessed as a tool for development, not destruction. Later in the day, he flew to Oman where he met Qaboos bin Said, the Sultan of Oman. The two leaders agreed to coordinate efforts “to counter extremism and radicalisation and misuse of religion by groups and countries for inciting hatred and perpetrating acts of terrorism.” • On February 8, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi held a telephonic conversation with US President, Donald Trump and discussed the situation in South Asia. Both leaders “expressed concern” over the political crisis in the Maldives which was triggered following the country’s Supreme Court order to release nine imprisoned opposition politicians, maintaining that their trials had been “politically motivated”. The two leaders also reiterated their commitment to supporting Afghanistan’s security and stability and enhancing security in

40 the Indo-Pacific region. The US and India aim to deepen military and economic ties as both sides remain wary of China’s growing clout across Asia. ---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

SOUTH ASIA: II Afghanistan • On February 14, at least 35 insurgents were killed during an Afghan Forces airstrike in southern Kandahar province.

Seven vehicles and some weapons and ammunitions were also destroyed in the airstrikes in Nesh district of Kandahar. In a related incident on February 11, 2018 five insurgents were killed, including a Taliban commander, Mullah Mir Wali, in a separate airstrike in Durqad district of Takhar province. At least four insurgents were also killed in airstrikes in Uruzgan province. On February 2, 2018, at least 50 Taliban militants were killed in another military operation carried out by the Special Force Unit of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) in Kandahar province. The Taliban are being pressed hard, especially after they conducted a spate of attacks in Kabul during the last fortnight of January 2018. • On February 14, the Taliban said they wanted to end the war in Afghanistan through talks.

According to Dawn, the Taliban offered dialogue in a statement addressed to the American people. The statement added that their resolve for the dialogue must not be assumed as lack of stamina to fight and that the US must end its occupation and accept the Taliban’s right to form a government. Since the announcement of the US’ new Afghan strategy, the Taliban are being pushed back from several district centres through increased ground operations and air strikes. However, the Taliban have also retaliated massively by attacking a number of security installments and hitting at key places including the attack on Kabul’s Intercontinental Hotel on January 20, 2018. In a related development on February 12, 2018 the Associated Press reported that Afghan officials carried out at least two rounds of talks with the Taliban. One with Afghanistan’s Intelligence Chief, Masoom Stanikzai and another with Mohammed Hanif Atmar, the National Security Advisor. Although, the dialogues are contrary to President Trump’s recent statement saying we do not want to talk to the Taliban, the talks serve as the only ray of hope for peace in an otherwise war torn country. • On February 13, the Chiefs of Defence Conference was held in Kabul to craft out an approach to deal with regional security challenges.

The meeting was attended by the Commander US Centcom, Commander Resolute Support Mission and the Army Chiefs of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Pakistan Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s visit was seen as significant as it came amid the country’s ongoing deteriorating ties with the US and Afghanistan. Gen Bajwa offered a collaborative and persistent approach to deal with regional security challenges. He pointed out Afghanistan’s central role in regional stability. He also assured the conference that Pakistani territory was not being used against any other country, and that Pakistan expected the same in return. It is expected that the high profile security meeting would come up with new strategies to deal with worsening situation of Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, on the sidelines of the conference, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani met with the Army Chiefs of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and praised their visits as the beginning of a new chapter in security relations between the three countries. • On February 8, the Deputy Chief of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Khan Said Mehsud alias Sajna was killed in a US drone strike in the Margha area of Barmal in Paktika, Afghanistan.

Sajna was also leading the Mehsud faction of the TTP. On February 12, 2018 the TTP confirmed this death. Sajna was believed to be involved in the attack on PNS Mehran in Karachi and masterminding a 2012 jailbreak in which the Taliban freed 400 inmates from a prison in Bannu, Pakistan. • On February 7, Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani offered support to Afghanistan in fighting terrorism and said that the presence of US military bases in Afghanistan were fueling insecurity in the region.

In his telephonic conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, Rouhani said that the US had deployed its forces in Afghanistan under the pretext of bringing peace and stability to the country, but Afghanistan continues to suffer from extensive security threats. He told reporters in Tehran that Iran was ready for advisory and security cooperation and ready to help Afghanistan in combating terrorism if the Afghan government requests. On February 4, 2018 the Iranian Defence Minister, Amir Hatami said that the US is transferring Daesh to Afghanistan to justify its military presence in the country. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s former President, Hamid Karzai said that US wants to establish permanent bases in Afghanistan to project power in the region, while Pakistan wants to turn Afghanistan into a client state. He added that the US wants to keep the Afghan nation divided and weak in order to pursue its geopolitical objectives vis-à- vis China and Russia. The pressure on the US is mounting due to deteriorating Afghan security situation especially after the announcement of its new South Asia strategy. On February 6, 2018 a number of US Senators also voiced their concern about Trump’s Afghan strategy. Republican and Democratic senators questioned whether Trump’s strategy in Afghanistan would bring an end to the nation’s longest war by bringing the Taliban to the table. • On February 6, an agreement was signed between Indian Ambassador to Kabul, Manpreet Vohra and Afghan officials based on which India has pledged to provide $100 million for 108 small development projects in Afghanistan.

The Afghan Chief Executive, Abdullah Abdullah was also present at the ceremony. He said that India’s help would have a positive impact on people’s lives in the country. India wants peace and stability in Afghanistan. He also criticised Pakistan for cross border incursions and said that (some) countries in the region cannot achieve anything by firing missiles and suicide attacks; those countries which claim they want friendly relations with Afghanistan must show it in practice. India continues to capitalise on President Trump’s South Asia strategy, which encourages New Delhi’s role in Afghanistan, especially at a time when Afghanistan-Pak and US- Pak relations are at their lowest.

• On February 6, a US Air Force B-52 bomber dropped a record number of precision guided bombs on Taliban in Afghanistan.

The bombing was part of a 96-hour air campaign that struck training facilities and sources of revenue including narcotics. The strikes also aimed at stolen Afghan National Army vehicles being converted to vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. Gen. John Nicholson, the Commander of US Forces and Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan said that there would be no safe haven for any terrorist group bent on bringing harm and destruction to this country. The B-52, which was recently reconfigured with a ‘conventional rotary’, dropped 24 guided munitions. However, any information related to Taliban casualties remains unknown.

• On February 3, a high-profile Pakistani delegation led by Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua reached Kabul to take part in the first ever meeting of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Working Group. The meeting was very significant for re-establishing the trust deficit after the recent spate of terror attacks in Afghanistan which were blamed on Pakistan. The Afghan side was led by Deputy Foreign Minister, Hekmat Khalil Karzai. The two sides discussed Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS), a joint action plan for cooperation in the areas of counter terrorism and reduction of violence, peace and reconciliation, refugees’ repatriation and joint economic development. A joint statement following the meeting said, “There are still some important areas to be discussed and agreed upon, and both sides remain committed to continue their discussions to reach an agreement on the APAPPS.” On February 9, 2018 the follow up talks on APAPPS were held in Islamabad. Afghanistan has repeatedly accused Pakistan of failing to tackle safe havens from which militants launch attacks in Afghanistan. Islamabad denies the charges and has at times criticised Afghanistan for the same. There is no military solution to the Afghan problem; only an Afghan-led and owned peace process would ensure peace in the country.

• On February 2, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani said that Pakistan is the centre of the Taliban and that Islamabad should take practical and clear action for eliminating the militant group and other terror outfits.

Ghani was addressing the Afghan nation after a spate of terror attacks which left hundreds dead during the last fortnight of January 2018. He said that Afghanistan has shared a list of insurgents with the Pakistani government. He added, “We are waiting for movement. Word and process are the words on paper; the Afghan nation wants clear practical action.” Meanwhile, Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) strongly condemned the recent spate of terror attacks in Afghanistan and observed that the reaction of the Afghan government was based on misconceptions created by certain foreign elements. Ghani also pointed at Afghan Forces’ operations against insurgents across the country. According to the National Directorate of Security, at least 50 Taliban militants were killed in the military operation in Band-e-Temor

44 area, in Kandahar on February 1, 2018. In a related development on February 6, 2018 Ghani approved a new security plan for Kabul.

Bangladesh • On February 9, British Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, Boris Johnson visited Bangladesh and discussed the Rohingya repatriation process with Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina.

Johnson stressed the need for a quick repatriation of the Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. Hasina said Bangladesh had given temporary shelter to over one million Myanmar nationals and such a huge population of refugees was a big burden on her country. She said Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi should act sincerely. On February 11, 2018 Johnson stopped over in Myanmar and pressed Suu Kyi on the need for an independent probe into violence in the Rakhine state. He also raised the plight of the two arrested Reuters journalists who recently uncovered a story of five Rohingya mass graves in a village in Myanmar. The UN has accused Myanmar Security Forces of driving the Muslim minority across the border in an ethnic cleansing campaign. However, Myanmar has staunchly denied the charges and blocked UN investigators from the conflict zone, souring relations with a host of western allies.

• On February 8, the Chairperson of Bangladesh Nationalist Party and former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia got a five-year imprisonment term for corruption. Khaleda and five others, including her son Tarique Rahman, were found guilty of embezzling Tk2.1 crore received in charity for an orphanage. She would not be able to contest the upcoming national election scheduled for December 2018 unless the subordinate court’s verdict is overturned by the High Court. • On February 5, the Swiss Confederation President, Alain Berset visited Bangladesh and met with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina and discussed the Rohingya crisis during bilateral talks.

Hasina said that the root of the Rohingya problem lies in Myanmar and urged the international community, including Switzerland, to keep pressurising Myanmar for an early and peaceful solution to the crisis. She also urged for full and immediate implementation of the recommendations of the Kofi Annan Commission report, as that is vital for the sustainable, safe, and dignified return of the Rohingya people to their homes in Myanmar. She appreciated the role played by Switzerland regarding the Rohingya crisis at different United Nations forums. Berset visited a Rohingya camp in Cox’s Bazar to gain a first-hand insight into the plight of the ethnic minority. He assured Bangladesh of continued support in providing humanitarian aid to the Rohingya people as well as ensuring their safe return to Myanmar. He mentioned that Switzerland has good relations with both Bangladesh and Myanmar, and would support both the countries for the implementation of the agreement on repatriation of the Rohingya people.

According to Bangladesh government’s Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commission, a total of 689,040 Rohingya people have crossed over to the country. In a related development on February 1, 2018 five mass graves of massacred Rohingya people were found in the village of Gu Dar Pyin in Myanmar. According to the Associated Press, at least 400 members of the persecuted minority were killed by Burmese troops. The mass killing is believed to have taken place on August 27, 2017 and soldiers had tried to cover up evidence of the atrocity. Muslim Rohingya people are denied citizenship by the Burmese government, which claims they are not native to Myanmar.

Maldives • On February 5, The Maldives President, Yameen Abdul Gayoom declared a 15-day state of emergency after a Supreme Court ruling ordered the release of imprisoned opposition leaders.

Exiled former President, Mohammed Nasheed, Yameen’s main political rival is also among those whose release was ordered by the court. Yameen responded by shuttering the parliament and imposing a state of emergency. On February 6, 2018 Chief Justice of Maldives, Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed were arrested from the Supreme Court after a seven-hour siege of the Supreme Court by Security Forces. Former President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was also arrested. The United Nations, Australia, Britain, Canada, India and the US had welcomed the court’s decision and called on Yameen to comply with the rule of law. However, China’s state- run newspaper, Global Times, criticised India for interfering in the internal affairs of Maldives, after Nasheed pleaded with India to send troops to implement the court’s ruling. When Yameen’s government signed a free trade agreement with China and joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Indian public opinion reacted harshly. The Maldives is important due to its proximity to international sea-lanes through which a majority of the world’s oil and half of its container shipments pass.

Nepal

• On February 2, Sushma Swaraj, Indian Minister of External Affairs, concluded her 2-day visit to Nepal, where she met with various political leaders.

Swaraj held meetings with CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist) Chairman, KP Sharma Oli, CPN (Maoist Centre) Chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and leaders of Madhes-based parties. She also held a meeting with Prime Minister and Nepali Congress President, Sher Bahadur Deuba and paid a courtesy call on President, Bidya Devi Bhandari. She hailed the leaders for successfully holding elections in Nepal and discussed ways to enhance bilateral cooperation. Swaraj’s visit comes at a time when Nepal is preparing to form a new government under the Left Alliance comprising CPN-UML and CPN following the successful

46 conduct of three tier elections after the promulgation of a new constitution. The visit was also aimed at reaching out to K P Oli, leader of the Left Alliance and future Prime Minister, who has pushed Nepal closer to China, especially during the last three years. India knows that Nepal is geo-strategically and traditionally too important for it to lose to China and that it will have to deal with Nepal regardless of the nature of the political set up there. ---Kashif Hussain

UNITED NATIONS

• On February 15, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) released its 2017 Annual Report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict in Afghanistan, indicating that over 3,000 people were killed and more than 7,000 wounded during the year. According to the report, there were a total of 10,453 civilian casualties in Afghanistan - 3,438 people were killed and another 7,015 were wounded – between January 1 and December 31, 2017. The number of civilian casualties in 2017 was 19% less in comparison to a total 11,434 casualties for the same period in 2016, when there were 3,510 deaths and 7,924 were wounded. Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, said, “The chilling statistics in this report provide credible data about the war’s impact, but the figures alone cannot capture the appalling human suffering inflicted on ordinary people, especially women and children.”

• On February 13, the United Nation’s Rural Development Agency announced an ambitious target to generate resources to fund loans and grants to enable millions of people in developing countries to strengthen their food security and livelihoods. Some 176 Member States of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) announced a sum of $3.5 billion to help the IFAD expand its projects and programmes to benefit 47 million small farmers with improved technology, finance and knowledge. Gilbert F. Houngbo, President of IFAD, said, “To achieve these goals, we will intensify our work on climate, nutrition and gender, the key focus areas which will be mainstreamed across our portfolio.” Figures issued by the September 2017 IFAD report showed that hunger has increased for the first time in 10 years affecting 815 million people in the developing countries in 2016. A specialised agency of the UN, IFAD is devoted exclusively to investing in rural areas and harnessing the potential of small farmers and other rural people to contribute to sustainable development. Between 2010-2015, it is estimated that IFAD-supported projects lifted 24 million people out of poverty.

• On February 7, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, warned that the declaration of the state of emergency in the Maldives by President Abdulla Yameen would surely undermine the checks and balances necessary in any functioning democracy. Zeid said that the suspension of several functions of the judiciary and Parliament and resulting suspension of constitutional guarantees have created a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of the President. He stressed that the current situation in Maldives is “tantamount to an all-out assault on democracy.” The state of emergency was declared in Maldives on February 5, 2018 in response to a Supreme Court order to release and retry nine political leaders, and to reinstate 12 suspended opposition Parliamentarians.

• According to the Associated Press on February 7, a UN panel of experts monitoring sanctions against Al-Qaeda and Daesh said in their report submitted to the UNSC that Al- Qaeda’s network was resilient and posed a greater threat than Daesh. The Report said that Daesh has lost its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, but Al-Qaeda is still an influential group. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, served as a communications hub for the group as a whole. It also indicated that Al-Qaeda is a dominant threat in Somalia and Yemen while other affiliated groups with Al-Qaeda pose as serious a threat as Daesh in West Africa and South Asia. Regarding affiliated groups, the report named the Al-Nusrah Front as one of the strongest and largest Al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria. Experts have raised concerns regarding potential linkages between Al-Qaeda and Daesh which could not only become each other’s supporters but could also pose more lethal threats globally. In a related development on February 8, 2018, Vladimir Voronkov, Head of the UN Counter- Terrorism Office, said that Daesh and its affiliates continue to pose a significant threat around the world despite military successes against the group in Syria and Iraq. Voronkov said that Daesh’s evolving threat presents a difficult challenge to the world community. He called upon UN member states to adopt a strong international framework to counter the threat from Daesh through the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy as well as relevant General Assembly and Security Council resolutions.

• On February 5, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, warned that Myanmar’s persecution of the Rohingya Muslim minority has the potential to spark a regional conflict. Zeid said, “Myanmar faces a very serious crisis with a potentially severe impact on the security of the region.” He was speaking during a conference at Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, marking the 70th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. He also reiterated that acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing may have occurred in the campaign of violence against Rohingya that forced nearly 700,000 people to seek shelter in Bangladesh. He indicated that the violence against Rohingya Muslims that began in August 2017 and sparked the refugee crisis were the culmination of five decades of discrimination and violence against Rohingya in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. In a related development on February 1, 2018, Yanghee Lee, the UN’s Special Envoy on Human Rights in Myanmar, said that violent operations conducted by Myanmar’s military against Rohingya Muslims bear “the hallmarks of a genocide.” Lee said that she could not make a definitive declaration about genocide until a credible international tribunal or court had weighed the evidence. However, she stressed that she was seeing clear signs of genocide. According to a report by Associated Press on February 1, 2018, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh revealed five mass graves in northern Rakhine in their interviews and time-stamped cell phone videos. The report described how Myanmar’s security allegedly used acid to disfigure Rohingya victims of a massacre in Gu Dar Pyin village, Buthidaung township, to make it difficult

49 to identify the bodies. In response, Myanmar’s government denied that any massacres occurred and said its investigation team had found no evidence to support the claims made in the AP report.

• On February 2, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Pakistan and China signed a $4 million agreement aimed at providing assistance over four months in crisis-affected areas of FATA and Balochistan. According to UNDP Pakistan, the “China South-South Cooperation Assistance Fund for the Recovery Project in FATA and Balochistan” would help 8,100 families returning to the areas affected by insecurity in FATA to rebuild their lives and would benefit 19,000 school children in Balochistan as schools that were damaged in the 2010–2011 floods are refurbished. Yao Jing, China’s Ambassador to Pakistan, said that the project between China and the UNDP renewed the country’s commitment to deliver strong support to the people of Pakistan. Jing said, “The project will support the people in restoration of their livelihood and help rebuild their lives.”

• According to The Independent on February 1, the UN Human Rights Commissioner (UNHCR) Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein decided to indefinitely postpone the publication of a “blacklist” of Israeli and international companies operating in the occupied territories including Judea and Samaria. Nikki Haley, US Ambassador to the UN, and Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon jointly led the campaign for shelving the Report. The postponement of the list’s publication comes after heavy pressure was exerted on the Commissioner by both the US and Israel with the assistance of diplomats from other countries. However, a report issued by Zeid on January 31, 2018, mentioned that 206 Israeli and international companies operating in Judea and Samaria or in contact with businesses operating in the area had been identified. The Report said that the businesses play a crucial role in furthering the establishment, maintenance and expansion of Israeli settlements. Ambassador Danon condemned the publication of the Report calling it shameful. Ambassador Haley in her message also threatened the UNHCR that if the list were published, the US would reduce its support to the Council to zero, and perhaps even leave the body as an expression of protest. Despite the threats, the report will be debated at the UN Human Rights Council session of February 26 and March 23, 2018. --- Moiz Khan