February 1 – February 15

February 1 – February 15 CONTENTS Foreword (General Observations)…………………………………………3 Americas……………………………………………………………………..6 Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………..11 China and East Asia………………………………………………………...19 Europe……………………………………………………………………….21 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………...25 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………..36 South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….42 United Nations……………………………………………………………….48 2 Area Briefs: 1-15 February 2018 General Observations Pakistan • Pakistan was under attack by the US on multiple forums – both US domestic and international. In many ways ever since Trump enunciated his new South Asia policy, Pakistan has been put under pressure especially as the US finds itself unable to recover from its Afghan failures. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme has always been a favourite target of US regimes and on 13 February the Director of US National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, warned that Pakistan was developing new categories of nuclear weapons, including tactical weapons, which would increase the risks in the region. There was no mention of India’s growing nuclear arsenal and its Ballistic Missile Defence system development. The Report, presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee by Coats had been prepared by 17 US intelligence agencies. On another front, the US once again sought to place Pakistan on the Grey List of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) relating to terror financing. The US co-opted the UK and later on France and Germany into moving a resolution against Pakistan – to be discussed at the FATF meeting between 18-23 February. The fact that the US made this move contrary to the norms and procedures of the FATF showed that the technical body was now being used for political purposes to pressure Pakistan to fall in line with US policy demands on Afghanistan. • Interestingly, on 12 February, the Trump Administration asked Congress to approve $336 million in civil and military aid to Pakistan for the fiscal year 2019 even as some Congressmen moved legislation to halt all non-defence aid to Pakistan – since earlier the US had stopped defence aid to Pakistan. Now the Trump Administration was seeking to link military assistance to Pakistan fulfilling US demands for action against alleged terrorist havens in Pakistan. • The COAS General Bajwa visited Kabul for the Chiefs of Defence Conference on 13 February and in his address to the conference he stated that Pakistan had eliminated all militant sanctuaries from its territory. Earlier, in a related development, on 10 February, Pakistan and Afghanistan concluded two days of talks under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). Foreign Secretary, Tehmina Janjua and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister, Hekmat Khalil Karzai led their respective delegations which comprised civil and military 3 officials. No progress was made during these talks to lower Pak-Afghan tensions that continue to prevail. • On 2 February the Pakistan Air Force successfully test-fired a BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and IR (Infrared) missile from JF-17 Thunder aircraft. • On 12 February Indian Occupied Kashmir’s Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti, called for talks with Pakistan stating that “there is no alternative”. International • On February 2, the Pentagon released its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). In it Russia and China are identified as the main adversaries of the US and are seen as “revisionist” powers. North Korea is also seen as a threat to the US while Iran is viewed with suspicions regarding intent to develop nuclear weapons despite the JCPOA agreement. The NPR commits the US to developing a whole new range of nuclear weapons including tactical nuclear weapons. This development is in clear contravention of Article VI of the Non Proliferation Treaty. • In response to the NPR, on 4 February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the US of having a “Cold War mentality”. Iran also responded to the US criticism of the country by stating categorically that it had a legitimate right to develop ballistic missiles. On 10 February, Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on International Affairs, reiterated this position. • In a related development, on 8 February, Denis Chaibi, Head of the Iranian taskforce at the European Union’s external action service, said the EU could put in place regulations to protect its firms doing business in Iran if the US withdraws from the JCPOA. • After the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to India, Indian Prime Minister Modi undertook a visit to Arab states and Palestine to counter any damage that may have been done to India’s relations with its Arab allies. On 10 February, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Palestine. Modi then proceeded to the UAE. • The situation in Syria deteriorated further with Israel getting further involved more directly into the conflict. On 10 February, a Syrian anti-aircraft missile downed an Israeli F-16, which was returning from a bombing raid on Iran-backed positions in Syria. As the 4 rhetoric increased on both sides, there was a growing danger that the war would expand further complicating the already complicated threads of the Syrian conflict. Adding to the complications, has been the growing distrust between the US and Turkey in Syria with the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on 12 February accusing the US of intentionally stalling the fight against Daesh as an excuse not to cut ties with Syrian Kurdish militiamen. • On 14 February, the Taliban said they wanted to end the war in Afghanistan through talks. They made this offer in a statement, which they addressed, to the American people. • On 8 February 8, the Chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia got a five-year imprisonment term for corruption, which means she would not be able to contest in the upcoming elections in the country. --- Dr Shireen M Mazari Director General 5 AMERICAS Domestic • On February 15, the Senate shot down four immigration bills, including a Republican measure supported by President Trump and a competing bipartisan proposal. The votes marked an end to the week that had started with hopes of a rare, open-ended debate on the Senate floor and the possibility of a bipartisan breakthrough to a thorny issue. The bipartisan breakthrough quickly ended however. Both bills would have offered legal protections to more than 1 million undocumented immigrants who came to the USA as children. The Senate’s failure to reach an agreement on the issue of immigration puts those immigrants, known as DREAMers, at risk of deportation starting March 5, 2018. The White House plans to end legal protections granted under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals programme. The House also remains divided on the issue of immigration, and GOP leaders there have not scheduled a vote on any legislation. The White House has said it cannot extend the programme, leaving no clear path for a resolution to their status. Meanwhile Federal Judges have ordered the Administration to renew protection for people in the programme. In January 2018, the Trump Administration released its legislative framework for immigration reform. It talks about $25bn to build a border wall and a path to citizenship for beneficiaries of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Act. The framework also seeks to end visa quotas for “family reunification,” which allows parents and siblings of US citizens to migrate to the US and completely eliminate the Diversity Visa Lottery. • On February 14, seventeen people were killed in a shooting at a high school in south eastern Florida. The attacker was identified as nineteen-year-old Nikolas Cruz. He was taken into custody and charged with 17 counts of premeditated murder. At least five people sustained life-threatening injuries. Cruz later confessed to the shooting. Florida Governor Rick Scott termed the shooting “pure evil.” Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said Congress was “responsible for the level of mass atrocity that happens to this country with zero parallel anywhere else.” He added, “As a parent, it scares me to death that this body doesn’t take serious the safety of my children.” Meanwhile President Trump and his Republican colleagues chose to focus on mental health issues and not talk about gun control angering their Democratic counterparts. • Reuters reported on February 9 that the Trump Administration is considering making it harder for foreigners living in the country to get permanent residency if they or their US- born children use public benefits such as food assistance. The move could sharply restrict legal immigration. The Department of Homeland Security has drafted rules that would allow immigration officers to scrutinise a potential immigrant’s use of taxpayer-funded public benefits to determine if they could become a public burden. They could 6 look at whether the applicant has enrolled a child in government pre-school programmes or received subsidies for utility bills or health insurance premiums. The draft rules are contrary to current guidelines, which have been in place since 1999 and specifically bar authorities from considering such non-cash benefits in deciding a person’s eligibility to immigrate to the United States or stay in the country. • On February 7, Senate leaders reached a bipartisan agreement that would add hundreds of billions of dollars to military and domestic programmes over the next two years. The deal “would also raise the federal debt limit, moving to end the cycle of fiscal showdowns that have roiled the Capitol.” The agreement between Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, and Chuck Schumer of New York, his Democratic counterpart, would raise strict caps on military and domestic spending that were imposed in 2011 as part of a deal with President Barack Obama. The deal would increase spending caps by $300 billion over two years. The limit on military spending would increase by $80 billion in the current fiscal year and $85 billion, beginning October 1, 2018.

Load more